Louis' Local Derbies, 122 bets, -3.9% yield

[MPLouis]

Louis' Local Derbies I don't think there's been a thread specialising in local derbies before, so I've decided to start one. I've found it can sometimes be a profitable niche. The value is usually in backing the away team, and that's what I'll be concentrating on. These are some of the things I'll be looking for when deciding which matches to shortlist - 1. Easy travelling time between the clubs Traditional derbies are normally among clubs close to each other - Man United v Man City, Arsenal v Spurs etc. Alternatively, two clubs might be 40 miles apart, but if there is a direct motorway link, it gives easy access to away fans which can give a match a derby flavour. I will include some games that aren't traditional derbies, but attract a lot of away fans because the other club's ground is easy for them to get to. So these games will have a 'derby-flavour'. I might call them 'derby-ish'. 2. Away club compares well in size with home club I prefer it if the away club compares well to the home club in size and they are likely to bring a lot of fans to the game. For example, I would prefer to back Nottingham Forest playing at Derby than Notts County playing at Derby (if they were in the same division) - at the moment, Forest are a bigger club than County. 3. Away club has a good recent head to head record in this fixture. I like to look at the head to head record on 'soccerway' at the home team's ground. I like the away team to have won more games than they have lost in the last 5 fixtures. Staking Plan For this exercise, I'll have a starting 'bank' of 100 points, and will start with level staking of 2 points per bet. Staking 2% is good discipline and ensures minimum risk of 'bankruptcy' (i.e. losing the whole bank through a bad run). I will be putting my own 'real money' on all bets. Odds I will normally back teams to WIN only. This keeps it simple and I believe produces better value than other markets like DNB or Asian Handicap - perhaps because the home/draw/away market is bigger and more competitive than the others. It means we will have quite a lot of losing bets, but the winning bets will be bigger than DNB or AH+. I am aiming for odds of between 2.0 and 5.0. One way of achieving a profit would be to get average odds of 3.0 or above and win more than 1/3 of games. Leagues I have a preference for the big European leagues, particularly for games where there are likely to be a lot of away fans. Most of the matches will probably be from England (Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, Blue Square Premier). Other leagues I like for derbies are Italy, Germany, Austria, Holland and Scotland. I'll also look at lower divisions in Europe. I'll tend to avoid places like South America where there are a lot of derbies, but things are harder to judge. No. of bets I envisage an average of around 5 bets per week. I will try to be selective and keep it down to a small number of bets instead of trying to cover every single derby game, as is my opinion that will increase the overall yield. Some derbies will be better value than others, and I will try to find the best value bets. Aim I am aiming to achieve an average long-term yeld of between 5% and 15%. My research suggests a return in this range is achievable. We'll have some idea of how we're doing after the first 50-100 bets. Comments and questions welcome :)

Edited November 1, 2015 by MPLouis

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Staking and Risk of Bankruptcy (Staking as little as 2% per bet can be risky) I thought I'd post something about this, as I've recently been discussing the subject with PL's Datapunter on another thread. The point is that whenever you bet are risking a loss. And ultimately, you risk losing everything - your entire 'bank'. As far as I know, the only way to have NO risk is ... NOT TO BET. I think it's important to get a feel for how much you are risking when you place a bet, especially if it's a regular thing. Datapunter wrote this excellent guide to Basic Betting Money Management a few years ago - http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/21780-Basics-of-money-management?p=315428#post315428 And he produced a table to illustrate the risk of bankruptcy (losing your whole betting bank). As far as I know, these figures are accurate - http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/21780-Basics-of-money-management?p=320127#post320127 The table shows, from left to right: Decimal odds (from 1.05 to 20.0) No. of bets (from 150 to 2,500) % stake (from 0.25% to 25%) For my local derby bets in this thread, I anticipate bets with average odds of around 3.0. And I am planning around 5 bets per week. The nearest to odds of 3.0 in the table is 2.85. The table shows that, at odds of 2.85, if you place 500 bets with stakes of 2%, you have more than 10% chance of losing your whole betting bank during the 500 bets. (If your stakes are 1%, the risk goes down to almost 0%). So, if we place 5 x 2% stake bets a week for 2 years (250 bets per year x 2 = 500), there is a 10% chance we'll lose all our money. One simple explanation for this is the 'losing run'. Most people don't have a predictable pattern of winners and losers. There will quite often be a string of winners or a string of losers. The more losing runs you have and the longer they are, the more likely you are to lose all your money. At odds of 3.0, if the odds-setters are right, one bet in every three will win, and two in every three will lose. If 2/3 of your bets lose, you will have a lot of losing runs, and your losing runs will be longer than your winning runs. A run of 5 losers in a row at 2% stakes would mean you lose 10% and a run of 10 losers in a row would mean you lose 20%. These figures assume that you make no profit, and no loss from bets. If you make a profit, your wins will exceed your losses and you will be less likely to go bust. If you make a loss though, it's the other way round. Taking the above into account, I was tempted to reduce the stakes to 1% (1 point from the 100 point starting bank) to massively reduce the risk of losing all my 'bank'. But I'm going to stick to 2%. It's riskier, but if we do well, the bank will grow much faster. The good news is that if we make a profit, the risk of bankruptcy will reduce as the bank grows. Also, if the bank grows and we are cautious about increasing the stake, the stakes will reduce as a percentage of the bank, and so the risk will reduce further. For example, if the bank grows to 150 points, a 2 point stake will be 1.33% instead of 2%. The stake is lower relative to the total, because the bank is bigger. I would envisage doubling the stake if and when the original bank of 100 points doubles to 200 points. The bottom line is that there is a risk of losing the entire bank of 100 points. If we make zero profit, the risk of losing the entire bank could be over 10% during the first 500 bets. In my first post I said that staking 2% ensures 'minimum risk of bankruptcy'. I was wrong - with a possible 10% chance over 2 years the risk is bigger than I thought. But I aim to keep it as low as possible. I am betting real money on these matches. My starting betting bank will be money I can afford to lose. And I aim to reduce the risk of bankruptcy by careful, profitable bet selections and cautious stake increases. Here's the staking plan summarised - Staking Plan Staking will be level 2% of starting bank. This means stakes of 2 points from the starting bank of 100 points. I will consider doubling the stake if the bank doubles to 200 points.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Even on a weekend with few derbies, I managed to find seven or eight games which meet my criteria for Derbies or 'near-Derbies'. I've looked through these, and here are my first two selections - one for Friday and one for Saturday. Odds are shorter than I prefer but I think they have some value. Ireland Premier League UCD v Shelbourne Friday 26th October 19.45 A Dublin derby on the last day of the Irish Premier League. Both sides are in similar form. Shelbourne are a bigger club than UCD and have a very good recent head to head record at UCD of 0/1/4 (lost 0, drawn 1, won 4 of their last 5 league games at UCD's ground). When you take this into account, I think they are reasonable value at 2.56 to win tonight. Best current odds: UCD 3.0 Shel 2.56 Draw 3.45 My selection: Shelbourne 2.56 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Austria Bundesliga Admira v Austria Wien Saturday 27th October 17.30 Along with their main rivals Rapid Vienna, Austria Vienna are one of the big two clubs in Vienna. Admira are a smaller outfit based just outside Vienna. Recent Form Last 10 league games W/D/L Home side first 3/4/3 7/2/1 Aggregate: 4/6/10 Last 5 games Home and Away W/D/L Home side first 3/2/0 4/1/0 Aggregate: 3/3/4 These figures show Austria are in much better form overall and their away form is a bit better than Admira's home form. Head to Head There isn't much recent head to head history. I think this is because Admira have been in lower divisions than Austria. In the last few years, this fixture has been played twice, Admira have won one and Austria won one: Last 2 H2H 1/0/1 Austria are a far bigger club travelling to their smaller suburban neighbours. They are in better form than Admira, and I think they are good value at 2.42. Best current odds: Admira 3.0 Austria 2.42 Draw 3.55 My selection: Austria Vienna 2.42 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

UCD v Shelbourne Shelbourne 2.56 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: UCD 1 Shelbourne 1 Return: 0 points

Admira v Austria Wien Austria Vienna 2.42 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Admira 4 Austria Wien 6 Return: 4.84 points See separate post below for a review of the games

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Here is a brief review of the games involved in my weekend bets and other big weekend derby games - Weekend Derby Review UCD 1 Shelbourne 1 According this report, Shelbourne 'missed a bucket full of chances' - http://www.extratime.ie/newsdesk/articles/9170/ It sounds as though they had the better of the game, and should have won. Admira 4 Austria Wien 6 I saw some of this game where neither defence had a clue. Both attacks had a field day, and I thought the difference was that Austria's strikers were a bit better than Admira's. Other weekend derby action Premier League Everton 2 Liverpool 2 Everton came back from being 2-0 down to two Suarez goals. From what I heard, it sounded as though a draw was a fair result overall, although Liverpool had a late goal wrongly disallowed. Argentina Primera River Plate 2 Boca 2 I saw some of this one. Boca equalised in injury time to get a draw that they probably didn't deserve. River Plate were the better side in a poor game.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies England Capital One Cup (League Cup) Sunderland v Middlesbrough Tuesday 30th October 19.45 I was going to leave this one, but it meets most of the criteria and the odds are attractive to I'm going to go for it. The biggest derby in the North East is Newcastle v Sunderland, with Middlesbrough being the third biggest club. Being around 25 miles from Sunderland, this game is certainly a derby. Middlesbrough are the smaller club, but are themselves a fair-sized outfit. Recent Form Last 10 games all competitions 3/5/1 7/1/2 Aggregate 5/6/8 Last 5 home/away all competitions 3/2/0 4/0/1 Aggregate 4/2/4 Source: soccerway Middlesbrough are in slightly better form Head to Head Sunderland won 2 Middlesbrough won 2 1 drawn Source: soccerway The head to head record at Sunderland in the last 5 games is neutral. Sunderland should be favourites to win tonight. They are a bigger club and a division higher. Middlesbrough have a chance though. They have been in good form. It's a local derby and Middlesbrough will have around 3,000 supporters at the game. Like many derbies, there will be more pressure on the home side. I think Boro are good value for the win at 5.2. Best current odds: Sunderland 1.82 Middlesbrough 5.2 Draw 3.75 My selection: Middlesbrough 5.2 Betfair Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Sunderland v Middlesbrough My selection: Middlesbrough 5.2 Betfair Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Sunderland 0 Middlesbrough 1 Profit: 8.4 less 5% Betfair commission = 7.98 Return: 9.98 points According to the BBC's report, Middlesbrough deserved their win - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20053708

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies I'm going to try to keep the number of selections right down so I've chosen just two games for this weekend which I think represent some value. Norway Premier League Lillestrom v Stabaek Sunday 4th November 17.00 11th v 16th (last) These two clubs are based near Oslo within easy travelling distance of each other. Lillestrom is the larger club but there's not a huge difference as far as I know. There are three games to go in the Norwegian Premier League. Stabaek have already been relegated. Lillestrom need 2 more points from their last 3 games to be safe. Recent Form Last 10 games, Home Team, Away Team, Aggegrate 3/4/3 2/1/7 10/5/5 Last 5 games Home only, Away only, Aggregate 0/4/1 1/0/4 4/4/2 Lillestrom are in better form than Stabaek Recent Head to Head H2H last 5 0/4/1 Stabaek have a slightly better record in the last 5 games at Lillestrom Latest odds Lillstm 1.4 Stabk 8.0 Draw 5.1 Summary and Recommendation Lillestrom are in much better form than already-relegated Stabaek. However, Stabaek have quite a good record at Lillestrom - they haven't lost their for the last 5 league games. On Sunday, they can play without pressure, whereas Lillestrom know they still need some points to be sure of safety. I think the gap in the odds is too great and Stabaek are good value at odds of up to 8.0 My selection: Stabaek 8.0 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Romania Liga 1 Steaua Bucharest v Dinamo Bucharest Sunday 4th November 19.30 1st v 6th This is Romania's biggest derby between the two top clubs both based in the capital Bucharest. Steaua are the bigger club and derbies are often hard-fought. Recent Form Last 10 games, Home Team, Away Team, Aggegrate 7/2/1 4/3/3 10/5/5 Last 5 games Home only, Away only, Aggregate 5/0/0 1/3/1 6/3/1 Steaua are in much better form. They have made a very good start to the season, and are currently 6 points clear at the top. Dinamo are 10 points behind in 6th place. Recent Head to Head Last 5 H2H 2/1/2 The head to head record is even in the last 5 games. Latest odds Steaua 1.5 Dinamo 7.0 Draw 4.1 Summary and Recommendation Bearing in mind Dinamo's fairly good record at Steaua, I think the odds are too far apart and they are good value at over 7.0. My selection: Dinamo Bucharest 7.08 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) All form and head to head stats from soccerway.com

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Lillestrom v Stabaek Stabaek 8.0 Bet 365

Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Lillestrom 6 Stabaek 0 Return: 0 points Lillestrom hammered Stabaek here. Lillestrom had a lot more shots on target according to the stats I saw.

Steaua Bucharest v Dinamo Bucharest Dinamo Bucharest 7.08 Pinnacle

Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points

Result: Steaua 3 Dinamo 1 Return: 0 points I saw a lot of this one. A big noisy crowd in Bucharest saw an exciting game. From what I saw, Steaua were the better team and dominated the game. Dinamo took the lead on the break in the first half. Steaua came back in the second half, and deservedly won the game. //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Other notable derbies this weekend: Panathinaikos 1 AEK Athens 0 The Athens derby was deservedly won by Panathinaikos according to the stats I saw.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Not much Derby action this weekend. The biggest Derby is the Rome Derby (Lazio v Roma) in Italy on Sunday. But for value, I've chosen one in England and one in Greece. Championship Leicester v Nottingham Forest Saturday 10th November 12.45 The biggest derby in the East Midlands is Derby v Nottingham Forest, but Leicester and Nottingham are fairly close too, and this also counts as a derby. The clubs are a similar size and several thousand Forest fans are likely to travel to the game. Recent Form Last 10 league games Home Away Aggregate 6/2/2 3/4/3 9/6/5 Last 5 home/away Home Away Aggregate 4/0/1 2/2/1 5/2/3 Leicester's form is better. Although Forest's form has been better than Leicester's in the last five games. Head to Head H2H last 5 3/1/1 Leicester's head to head record is better in this fixture . Stats source: soccerway Latest odds Leic 1.95 Forest 4.4 Draw 3.66 Summary and Recommendation Leicester's form has tailed off recently. Forest's form has been a bit better than Leicester's in the last few games, and they are currently four points behind Leicester. Apparently Forest were the better team in their midweek game at home to Middlesbrough. I think Leicester should be favourites but their odds are a bit too short at 1.95 and Forest are good value at 4.4. My selection: Forest 4.4 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Greek Super League Atromitos v Panionios Sunday 11th November 15.15 A minor derby between two of the smaller Athens clubs. Both clubs are similar size and within a few miles of each other. What attracted me is that Panionios are above Atromitos in the table and have a good record in this fixture, but are available at attractive odds of 4.75 Recent Form Last 10 league games Home Away Aggregate 4/5/1 6/0/4 8/5/7 Last 5 home/away Home Away Aggregate 2/1/2 3/0/2 4/1/5 Both clubs are in similar form Head to Head H2H last 5 2/0/3 Panionios' record is a bit better in this fixture Stats source: soccerway Latest odds Atrom 2.0 Panion 4.75 Draw 3.36 Summary and Recommendation I know hardly anything about these teams or the Greek Super League, but it is clearly a local game where form and history suggest Panionios have a good chance of winning, and odds of 4.75 look too long. My selection: Panionios 4.75 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Leicester 2 Nottingham Forest 2 I listened to some of this on the radio, and from what I heard Forest were lucky to get a draw and Leicester dominated. Return: 0 points Atromitos 1 Panionios 0 According to the stats I saw Atromitos were the better side and probably deserved the win Return: 0 points /////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Other notable derbies this weekend: Lazio 3 Roma 2 Lazio edged the Rome derby which had 2 red cards. AEK Athens 0 Olympiakos 4 A big Greek derby deservedly won by Olympiakos from the stats I saw

[pg_yid]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Interesting thread MP. I look forward to seeing the long term results. Derby games are often difficult to call, throwing up surprising results. Perhaps for this reason they deserve to be priced differently from your average game.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Interesting thread MP. I look forward to seeing the long term results. Derby games are often difficult to call' date=' throwing up surprising results. Perhaps for this reason they deserve to be priced differently from your average game.[/quote'] Thanks for the comment pg. Yes, the key to my idea is that there is some unexpected value to be found in derbies.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies A few thoughts after the first few weeks. Early results have been disappointing but not disastrous. I think it might be a good idea to focus more on UK fixtures and less on leagues I know little about such as Greece. I will produce some results (no. of bets, yield etc) after 10 or 20 bets. After the first 20 or 30 results I'll have an idea of how it's going. Long-term success is what we're really after. Unfortunately though, "in the long-term we're all dead" :p

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Question: Should I include cup games when measuring head to head records? So far I've only included league games. I think I'll carry on without cup games, because I know that in some countries (England for example) clubs change their teams for cup games. If there have been few recent league games but there have been cup games then it might make sense to include the cup games. If the upcoming game itself IS a cup game, then I'll take account of recent cup games. But for league games I'll generally take account of head to head league games only.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies I thought I'd write a list of all the derby games I'm considering this weekend before making some selectio Derbies/near-derbies this weekend Friday 16th to Sunday 18th November Friday 16th Austria First League FC Lustenau v Austria Lustenau Local Lustenau derby. Austria Lustenau are currently the bigger club, lead the division, and have a very good record in this fixture. But Austria's high league position means the odds are on the low side :( Saturday 17th Premiership Arsenal v Spurs Spurs' odds look attractive but they have a poor record at the Emirates Blue Square National Telford v Kidderminster Derby between two mid-table sides. Hardly any head to head record. FA Vase Ascot United v Reading Town Derby between two Hellenic league sides in this non-league competition that might be of interest Serbia Super Liga Red Star v Partizan Huge derby game. Currently 2nd v 1st in the Serbian league. Partizan have a good record at Red Star. Unfortunately their odds are low because they have an 8 point lead over their rivals. Ideally, Red Star would be above Partizan, and Partizan's odds would be much higher ;) Sunday 18th November Italy Serie A Sampdoria v Genoa The Genoa derby. Both sides are on terrible runs and are near the bottom of the table. Sampdoria are back in Serie A after being promoted from Serie B last season. Recent head to head is even in this fixture. Spain Primera Sevilla v Real Betis Seville derby. Betis have made a better start to the season than Sevilla and have a reasonable record at Sevilla's ground. Could be some value here.

[pg_yid]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

FA Vase Ascot United v Reading Town Derby between two Hellenic league sides in this non-league competition that might be of interest

The big one :lol

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies I've decided to go for both Sunday derbies as I think there's some value backing the away team in these. Italy Serie A Sampdoria v Genoa Sunday 18th November 19.45 The Genoa derby. Both sides are on terrible runs and are near the bottom of the table. Sampdoria are back in Serie A after being promoted from Serie B last season. Recent head to head is even in this fixture. Recent form and H2H (source: soccerway) 0/0/5 0/0/5 5/0/5 1/1/3 1/1/3 4/2/4 H2H 2/1/2 The clubs are similar size and in similar form. Recent H2H record in this fixture is even. I think there is some value backing Genoa at current odds. My selection: Genoa 3.1 Ladbrokes Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Spain Primera Sevilla v Real Betis Sunday 18th November 20.30 Seville derby. Betis have made a better start to the season than Sevilla and have a reasonable record at Sevilla's ground. Historically, Sevilla tend to be strong at home and Betis poor away, but this is a derby. Recent form and H2H (source: soccerway) 1/1/3 3/1/1 2/2/6 3/1/1 3/1/1 4/2/4 H2H 3/0/2 The clubs attract similar sized crowds. Betis are in better form and have a reasonable recent record in this fixture. I think they are good value at current odds of over 5.0 My selection: Real Betis 5.4 Bet Victor Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Sampdoria 3 Genoa 1 I only saw a little of the game. The stats I saw said Genoa had more shots and attacks, so they may have been a bit unlucky. Return: 0 points Sevilla 5 Real Betis 1 I saw some of the first half. The pattern of the game was set when Sevilla scored twice in the first 5 minutes. They completely dominated the first half. The Betis defence couldn't cope, and their goalkeeper looked very shaky. Return: 0 points ////////////////////////////////////////////////// Other notable derbies this weekend: Arsenal 5 Spurs 2 Spurs made a good start but Arsenal dominated after Spurs had a man sent off. Red Star 3 Partizan 2 Red Star won the big Belgrade derby

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Thought: So far I have backed the AWAY team. There is surely some value in backing the HOME team sometimes though. And perhaps there might sometimes be value backing OVERS. Perhaps I will look at 'home' or 'overs' as well as away bets in future.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies I aim to post tips up at least 24 hours before the match, but occasionally I only become aware of derbies shortly before the event. Here's a South American one I've just noticed, which starts soon ... Ecuador Serie A LDU Quito v Deportivo Quito Thursday 22nd November 00.15 A clash between two clubs in Quito, the capital of Ecuador. Recent Form Last 5 games 0/2/3 2/2/1 Aggregate 1/4/5 Last 5 Home and Away (for home and away teams) 2/2/1 2/2/1 Aggregate 3/4/3 H2H 2/2/1 Deportivo Quito are in better recent form. LDU Quito have a slightly better record in this fixture at their ground. Looking at overall form and the fact that it's a derby, I think the odds should be fairly close, so Deportivo Quito's odds of up to 3.75 with Bet365 look too long (best on LDU Quito is 2.2) I'm going to go conservative and suggest a Deportivo Quito or Draw bet - Deportivo Quito +0.5 1.67 BetVictor

Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Result: LDU Quito 3 Deportivo Quito 0 I saw some of the game. LDU Quito looked a class above and dominated the game from what I saw. Deportivo struggled to create anything and LDU well deserved their win. Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Summary so far Time for some results after the first 10 bets Eight bets lost, and two won, as follows: Admira v AUSTRIA WIEN @ 2.42 Result: Admira 4 Austria Wien 6 Return: 4.84 points Sunderland v MIDDLESBROUGH @ 5.2 Result: Sunderland 0 Middlesbrough 1 Profit: 8.4 less 5% Betfair commission = 7.98 Return: 9.98 points At 2 points per bet, we've staked 10 x 2 = 20 points And we've returned 4.84 + 9.98 = 14.82 points Which means a loss of 14.82 - 20 = 5.18 points Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 94.82 Total staked: 20 Number of bets: 10 @ 2 points Winning bets: 2 Losing bets: 8 Strike rate: 20% Yield: - 5.18/20 = -25.9% Profit (or Loss) = - 5.18 points Results are calculated like this : Strike rate = Winning bets / Total bets ( written as a percentage ) Yield = Profit (or Loss) / Total staked ( written as a percentage )

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Derbies/near-derbies this weekend Friday 23rd to Sunday 25th November Ten derbies on my shortlist for this weekend Saturday 24th League One Doncaster Rovers v Scunthorpe United Two League One clubs 25 miles apart. Doncaster the bigger club League Two Oxford v Northampton 45 miles apart, around 1 hour 15 minutes drive Northern Premier Chorley v FC United of Manchester Chorley is 20 miles north of Manchester. FC United the bigger club FA Trophy Woking v Farnborough Blue Square National v Blue Square South. Woking the bigger club. Bundesliga Greuther Furth v Nurnberg Furth just outside Nurnberg. Nurnberg a much bigger club Romania Universitatea Cluj v CFR Cluj Cluj derby. CFR currently get slightly bigger crowds Serie A Palermo v Catania Sicilian derby Sunday 25th Russia Spartak Moscow v Dinamo Moscow Moscow derby. Spartak the bigger club Austria Admira v Rapid Vienna Admira just outside Vienna. Rapid a much bigger club Premiership Spurs v West Ham London derby. Spurs the bigger club

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Here are my three selections for this weekend. Northern Premier Chorley v FC United of Manchester Saturday 24th November 15.00 Chorley is 20 miles north of Manchester. FC United the bigger club FC United have a good record in this fixture, having won on two of their last three league visits, and I believe they also have a good record there in cup and local games. FC's away record is better than Chorley's home record. I think odds of 2.4 look attractive for them to win here. FC United 2.4 BetVictor

Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Russia Spartak Moscow v Dinamo Moscow Sunday 25th November 09.30 Moscow derby. Spartak the bigger club. Dinamo have an excellent record in this fixture, having won three and drawn two of the last five at Spartak's ground. I think odds of 4.0 for Dinamo look attractive Dinamo 4.0 Paddy Power

Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Austria Admira v Rapid Vienna Sunday 25th November 14.00 Admira just outside Vienna. Rapid a much bigger club. Rapid are in better form than Admira. There is little recent head to head history, but Rapid tend to do well away in this sort of game. I think odds of 2.4 for the Rapid win are probably worth taking. Rapid 2.4 William Hill

Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Source for stats: soccerway

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Chorley 1 FC United of Manchester 2 From the reports I read it sounds as though FC United were lucky to win. Chorley hit the bar three times. Return: 4.8 points Spartak Moscow 1 Dinamo Moscow 5 I saw some goal highlights and Spartak's defending was very poor. Return: 8 points Admira 0 Rapid Vienna 2 I saw some of this. The luck went with Rapid, who took the lead with a soft looking penalty 20 minutes from the end and got a second goal on the break in added time at the end. Rapid had some ability in attack but looked dodgy in defence. It's hard to see them winning the league on this showing. Return: 4.8 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Derbies/near-derbies this weekend Friday 30th November to Sunday 2nd December There are a lot of derbies this weekend Friday 30th November Russian Premier League Krasnodar v Kuban Krasnodar Krasnodar derby. Kuban get bigger crowds and are doing better at the the moment Saturday 1st December Premier League West Ham v Chelsea London derby. Chelsea the bigger club. New Chelsea manager Benitez is a factor. Premier League Fulham v Spurs London derby. Spurs the bigger club Championship Huddersfield v Leeds Yorkshire derby. Leeds the bigger club and seem to have turned their form around recently Championship Millwall v Charlton London derby. Charlton get bigger crowds Championship Palace v Brighton Sort of derby. Keenly contested fixture. FA Cup Lincoln v Mansfield Sort of derby. The clubs are less than 1 hour apart. Both clubs similar size. Italy Serie A Juventus v Torino Turin derby. Juve the bigger club Spain Primera Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Madrid derby. Real the bigger club Sunday 2nd December Championship Burnley v Blackburn Hotly contested Lancashire derby. Scottish Cup Hibs v Hearts Edinburgh derby Swiss Super League Grasshoppers v Zurich Zurich derby. Grasshoppers the bigger club Greek Super League Panionios v Panathinaikos Athens derby. Panathinaikos the bigger club

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Six selections for this weekend. One for Friday, two for Saturday and three for Sunday. Friday 30th November Russian Premier League Krasnodar v Kuban Krasnodar Friday 30th November 14.15 Kuban have won the last two games at Krasnodar. Kuban get bigger crowds, are in better form and I think are pretty good value at 2.5. Kuban 2.5 Paddy Power Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Saturday 1st December Championship Huddersfield v Leeds Saturday 1st December 12.30 Leeds are the bigger club. Huddersfield have a much better head to head record in this fixture, having won 3 and drawn 2 of the last 5 at their ground. Leeds have just started improving, winning their last two games against top three sides Palace and Leicester. I think Leeds will go into this game with confidence, and they are reasonable value at over 3.0 Leeds 3.04 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Premier League Fulham v Tottenham Saturday 1st December 15.00 Spurs are by far the bigger club and have a good record at Craven Cottage, having won 2 and drawn 2 of the last 5 games. Their are various sub-plots with Dempsey returning to the club he left and ex-Spurs Martin Jol managing Fulham. Fulham seem to play an attacking game which could benefit Spurs. I think Spurs should be a bit shorter than 2.5 and are good value to win the game Tottenham 2.53 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Sunday 2nd December Championship Burnley v Blackburn Sunday 2nd December 12.30 Big Lancashire derby. Blackburn have a good record at Turf Moor, having won 3 and drawn 1 of the last 5 games there. Burnley have been in better form recently, but I think Blackburn are good value at 2.9 Blackburn 2.9 Bluesquare Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Scottish Cup Hibs v Hearts Sunday 2nd December 15.30 Both clubs are similar size. Hearts have been more successful in recent years. Hibs have started the season more strongly and Hearts are in some financial trouble. But Hearts have an excellent record in this fixture, having won 3 and drawn 2 of the last 5 games at Hibs in all competitions, and they look reasonable value at 2.75 Hearts 2.75 Ladbrokes Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Greek Super League Panionios v Panathinaikos Sunday 2nd December 17.30 Panathinaikos are by far the bigger club. They have a very good record in this fixture, having won 4 and drawn 5 of the last 5 games at Panionios. I think their odds should perhaps be around 2.0, and they are good value at 2.38. Panathinaikos 2.38 William Hill Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Source for stats: soccerway

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Krasnodar 2 Kuban Krasnodar 1 I saw some of the game. Kuban looked better early on and generally looked classier in attack, but Krasnodar worked harder as a team and probably deserved the win. Bet lost Return: 0 points Huddersfield 2 Leeds 4 I didn't see the game, but reports suggest Leeds deserved the win. Bet won Return: 6.08 points Fulham 0 Spurs 3 From what I heard, Spurs deserved to win. Bet won Return: 5.06 points Burnley 1 Blackburn 1 Apparenlty Burnley dominated and Blackburn were a bit fortunate to avoid defeat. Bet lost Return: 0 points Hibs 1 Hearts 0 I saw some of this. Hearts looked better early on, but Hibs dominated the end of the game, and perhaps marginally deserved the win. Bet lost Return: 0 points Panionios 1 Panathinaikos 2 I saw some of this and Panathinaikos looked the better team and I thought deserved to win. They were complacent near the end and Panionios could have got a draw. Bet won Return: 4.76 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies One recommendation for tonight FA Cup Cheltenham v Hereford Monday 3rd December 19.45 Two clubs about 1 hour apart, this has a derby flavour, and Hereford will be bringing over 1,000 fans (Cheltenham average 2,800). Cheltenham are 3rd in League Two. Hereford are in mid-table in the Conference, one division lower. Cheltenham's home form has been strong but overall both sides are in similar form at the moment. Hereford have a very good record at Whaddon Road, having won 3 and drawn 1 in their last four visits. Arguably, Hereford is the bigger club, with a longer football league record and traditionally bigger crowds. Cheltenham were only promoted to the football league in 1999, and they still have small crowds. Best current odds: Cheltenham 1.57 Hereford 6.8 Draw 4.4 Recommendation Cheltenham are doing well in the league, but both clubs recent form has been similar. Hereford are in some financial trouble, but this could have the effect of uniting the fans and the club. The incentive for both clubs tonight is a home tie with Everton. Hereford have a very good record at Cheltenham. I think their odds are too long at 6.8, and they are good value to win at these odds. Hereford 6.8 Betfair Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)