froment Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Hello, guys; it's again the time of the year when we choose primus inter pares here on the forum! You might remember that we have over 20 categories to award the winners, and one of them proudly belongs to this part of the forum - we will select the thread that presented the best system / strategy here, according to the opinion of its visitors. If you're reading these words, that means you've visited this thread, and maybe you like it? If so, why wouldn't you take a minute to nominate it for an Oscar?! That way, you will reward author of this thread for his efforts, and in the same time you will help yourself with a thrill of lottery: anyone who nominates a member who actually goes on to win that award will be placed in a draw, and two lucky members will win £25 cash via Moneybookers. So get nominating! Please visit this thread and post your nomination there, under category "Best thread in Systems & Strategy". Remember: You can nominate at most 2 users per category. You don't have to nominate users in all categories - if you don't have any idea who to nominate in some category just leave it alone. Nominations will close on Dec 31st 2013 at Midnight, after that the nominations will be counted and the 4 top nominated users and ties in each category will take part in vote poll for two weeks. All nominations must be for current and active members, others will be disregarded. Thank you all, and enjoy the Holidays! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Conference Premier Kidderminster v Hereford Thursday Dec 26th 15.00 The Conference seem to have derbies on Boxing Day with the return fixtures on New Years Day. I've been looking down the list for possible value. I think this game fits the bill. The two clubs are approximately 35 miles apart. Hereford's two league games at Kidderminster in the last 8 years were a win and a draw. Last season Hereford won the match 1-0. Hereford are in better form than Kidderminster, although Kidderminster's home form is generally very good. The two teams' recent shots on target stats are similar. Taking head to head and current form into account, I think Hereford could be good value here at odds of over 5.0. Paddy Power are currently offering attractive 2-way DNB odds (lower risk because if it's a draw your stake is refunded). Hereford DNB 4.0 Paddy Power Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Result: Kidderminster 2 Hereford 1 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies I'm backing the away team in these four games in the Conference North and Conference South. Conference North North Ferriby v Gainsborough I think there's a bit of value with Gainsborough at over 4.5 in this derby game. The reverse game at Gainsborough was abandoned at 0-0. Both sides are in similar form. Gainsborough or Draw 2.2 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Conference South Staines Town v Maidenhead Maidenhead are unbeaten in their last five games at Staines. Maidenhead won the home game 3-1 on Boxing Day, and they are on a good run. The away side are decent value I think. Maidenhead +0.5 1.92 sbobet Stake: 2 points Conference South Stortford v Chelmsford Chelmsford won the Boxing Day game 2-1 and could be good value to get something here. They are in better form than Stortford. Chelmsford or Draw 2.25 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Conference South Weston v Bath Bath have won their last four games at Weston, and are decent value to do so again in this derby game. Bath won the home game on Boxing Day and are in better form than Weston. Bath 0 1.83 sbobet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Two more derbies in League Two where I'm backing the away team. League Two Fleetwood v Accrington This is a Lancashire derby and I think are Accrington are a good price. They have been steadily on the rise recently and are in similar form to higher-placed Fleetwood. Accrington 5.0 BetVictor Stake: 2 points League Two Plymouth v Torquay Torquay look decent value in this Devon derby, Both sides are in similar form, and Torquay have only lost one of their last five at Plymouth. Torquay 4.6 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies I'm backing the away team in these four games in the Conference North and Conference South. Conference North North Ferriby v Gainsborough I think there's a bit of value with Gainsborough at over 4.5 in this derby game. The reverse game at Gainsborough was abandoned at 0-0. Both sides are in similar form. Gainsborough or Draw 2.2 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: North Ferriby 2 Gainsborough 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Conference South Staines Town v Maidenhead Maidenhead are unbeaten in their last five games at Staines. Maidenhead won the home game 3-1 on Boxing Day, and they are on a good run. The away side are decent value I think. Maidenhead +0.5 1.92 sbobet Stake: 2 points Conference South Stortford v Chelmsford Chelmsford won the Boxing Day game 2-1 and could be good value to get something here. They are in better form than Stortford. Chelmsford or Draw 2.25 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Conference South Weston v Bath Bath have won their last four games at Weston, and are decent value to do so again in this derby game. Bath won the home game on Boxing Day and are in better form than Weston. Bath 0 1.83 sbobet Stake: 2 points These three matches were postponed. I will try to remember to put the rescheduled games up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Two more derbies in League Two where I'm backing the away team. League Two Fleetwood v Accrington This is a Lancashire derby and I think are Accrington are a good price. They have been steadily on the rise recently and are in similar form to higher-placed Fleetwood. Accrington 5.0 BetVictor Stake: 2 points Result: Fleetwood 3 Accrington 1 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies League Two Plymouth v Torquay Torquay look decent value in this Devon derby, Both sides are in similar form, and Torquay have only lost one of their last five at Plymouth. Torquay 4.6 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: Plymouth 2 Torquay 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Scottish Premier League Hibs v Hearts Thursday 2nd Jan 19.45 I think Hearts are good value in the Edinburgh derby tonight. They have had the bigger attendances in recent years, and have only lost one game in the last five at Hibs' Easter Road ground. Hearts or Draw 2.3 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Scottish Premier League Hibs v Hearts Thursday 2nd Jan 19.45 I think Hearts are good value in the Edinburgh derby tonight. They have had the bigger attendances in recent years, and have only lost one game in the last five at Hibs' Easter Road ground. Hearts or Draw 2.3 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: Hibs 2 Hearts 1 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points I saw the game, and I thought Hibs deserved to win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Tottenham v Crystal Palace Saturday 11th Jan There's no doubt that Spurs are a considerably bigger club than Palace and have better players. Spurs comfortably beat Palace in South London on the opening day of the season. But a lot has happened since then. Both clubs have a new manager for a start, and both Sherwood and Pulis have impressed so far. A London derby, this is one of those match-ups where the away club does better - Palace have only won one of their last five at home to Spurs, and Spurs have won none of their last five at home to Palace. All in all, I think there's value backing Palace at the current odds. I'd say Palace have more than the 30% chance of winning or drawing the game which is implied by these odds ... Palace or Draw 3.4 Coral Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Australia A-League Western Sydney v Sydney FC Saturday 11th Jan 8.45am UK time In the two league games played at Western Sydney's ground so far, Sydney won one and drew one. Sydney FC +0.5 2.87 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Note: I think that's 75 matches covered so far. I'm planning to do a full detailed analysis after 100 matches (should be due on page 5 of the thread - this being page 4). I think the system is showing a small overall loss. I did some analysis of the first 40 games, and this can be found on pages 1 and 2 of the thread. When I do the 100 match analysis, I'll post the overall yield in the title and keep it updated. I'm hoping to do the analysis on a google docs spreadsheet and link it to the thread :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Note: During the last year or so, I've posted some tips for derbies in other threads (e.g. the Non League threads) and not posted them here. From now on, I hope to post any tips for derby games in here as well. (That will encourage me to think carefully before posting them.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Conference North Solihull v Leamington Sat 11th Jan A midlands derby. The clubs are less than 20 miles apart. Leamington get the larger attendances at the moment. Both sides are in good form. Leamington have been relatively poor away from home, but I think odds of 4.75 are too high in this derby game, and think it is worth backing them. The home side hasn't won in the last three games between the clubs. Leamington DNB 3.5 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Tottenham v Crystal Palace Saturday 11th Jan There's no doubt that Spurs are a considerably bigger club than Palace and have better players. Spurs comfortably beat Palace in South London on the opening day of the season. But a lot has happened since then. Both clubs have a new manager for a start, and both Sherwood and Pulis have impressed so far. A London derby, this is one of those match-ups where the away club does better - Palace have only won one of their last five at home to Spurs, and Spurs have won none of their last five at home to Palace. All in all, I think there's value backing Palace at the current odds. I'd say Palace have more than the 30% chance of winning or drawing the game which is implied by these odds ... Palace or Draw 3.4 Coral Stake: 2 points Result: Tottenham 2 Palace 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Palace had the better of the first half and missed a penalty. Spurs improved in the second half, and the class of their forwards probably made the difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Australia A-League Western Sydney v Sydney FC Saturday 11th Jan 8.45am UK time In the two league games played at Western Sydney's ground so far, Sydney won one and drew one. Sydney FC +0.5 2.87 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points Result: Western Sydney 1 Sydney FC 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Conference North Solihull v Leamington Sat 11th Jan A midlands derby. The clubs are less than 20 miles apart. Leamington get the larger attendances at the moment. Both sides are in good form. Leamington have been relatively poor away from home, but I think odds of 4.75 are too high in this derby game, and think it is worth backing them. The home side hasn't won in the last three games between the clubs. Leamington DNB 3.5 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: Solihull 0 Leamington 0 Bet void Stake: 2 points Return: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Conference South Staines Town v Maidenhead Tuesday 21st Jan Originally scheduled for New Years Day (postponed because of bad weather). I thought Maidenhead were good value then, and think they are now (although odds are slightly shorter). Maidenhead are unbeaten in their last five games at Staines. Maidenhead won the home game 3-1 on Boxing Day. Maidenhead +0.5 1.86 188Bet Stake: 2 points Return: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Conference South Staines Town v Maidenhead Tuesday 21st Jan Originally scheduled for New Years Day (postponed because of bad weather). I thought Maidenhead were good value then, and think they are now (although odds are slightly shorter). Maidenhead are unbeaten in their last five games at Staines. Maidenhead won the home game 3-1 on Boxing Day. Maidenhead +0.5 1.86 188Bet Stake: 2 points Return: 2 points Result: Staines 0 Maidenhead 0 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 3.72 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Eredivisie Cambuur v Heerenveen Sunday 26th January 2014 11.30am This is a derby in Northern Holland. Heerenveen are the bigger club and have a good record at Cambuur, having won 2 and drawn 1 in their last 3 visits. Heerenveen are in better form than Cambuur, and I think they are reasonable value in this game. Heerenveen AH0 1.91 sbobet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Eredivisie Cambuur v Heerenveen Sunday 26th January 2014 11.30am This is a derby in Northern Holland. Heerenveen are the bigger club and have a good record at Cambuur, having won 2 and drawn 1 in their last 3 visits. Heerenveen are in better form than Cambuur, and I think they are reasonable value in this game. Heerenveen AH0 1.91 sbobet Stake: 2 points Result: Cambuur 3 Heerenveen 1 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Serbian SuperLiga OFK Beograd v Partizan Sunday 30th March 13.30 This match is a Belgrade derby between OFK Beograd, currently one of the smaller Belgrade clubs, and Partizan, one of the two biggest clubs in Serbia, and current league champions. Partizan and Red Star Belgrade ("Crvena Zvezda") are well clear of everyone else at the top of the league, only 1 point apart with 10 games to go. OFK Beograd are currently 18th, one point above the relegation zone. Partizan have a very good record at OFK, they've won their last five games there, and by an average margin of 2.2 goals. Odds of nearly 1.9 for a win by 2 goals on Sunday look reasonable to me. Partizan -1.5 1.89 sbobet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 30, 2014 Author Share Posted March 30, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Serbian SuperLiga OFK Beograd v Partizan Sunday 30th March 13.30 This match is a Belgrade derby between OFK Beograd, currently one of the smaller Belgrade clubs, and Partizan, one of the two biggest clubs in Serbia, and current league champions. Partizan and Red Star Belgrade ("Crvena Zvezda") are well clear of everyone else at the top of the league, only 1 point apart with 10 games to go. OFK Beograd are currently 18th, one point above the relegation zone. Partizan have a very good record at OFK, they've won their last five games there, and by an average margin of 2.2 goals. Odds of nearly 1.9 for a win by 2 goals on Sunday look reasonable to me. Partizan -1.5 1.89 sbobet Stake: 2 points Result: OFK 0 Partizan 2 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 3.78 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Austria Vienna v Rapid Vienna Sunday 6th April 14.00 Third plays second in the biggest derby in Austrian football. Salzburg have wrapped up the league, but there are still two Europa League places to fight for. With six games to go, Austria are 3rd and Rapid are 2nd, both favourites to get those EL places. They both face a threat from Grodig who are 4 points behind Austria. There's also local pride of course and who finishes higher in the league. The away side often does well in this derby. Although Austria have been the more successful side in recent years, Rapid have won one and drawn three of their last 5 derbies at Austria. Overall I think Austria are too short and there's some value opposing them at current odds - Rapid +0.5 1.73 188Bet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 6, 2014 Author Share Posted April 6, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Austria Vienna v Rapid Vienna Sunday 6th April 14.00 Third plays second in the biggest derby in Austrian football. Salzburg have wrapped up the league, but there are still two Europa League places to fight for. With six games to go, Austria are 3rd and Rapid are 2nd, both favourites to get those EL places. They both face a threat from Grodig who are 4 points behind Austria. There's also local pride of course and who finishes higher in the league. The away side often does well in this derby. Although Austria have been the more successful side in recent years, Rapid have won one and drawn three of their last 5 derbies at Austria. Overall I think Austria are too short and there's some value opposing them at current odds - Rapid +0.5 1.73 188Bet Stake: 2 points Result: Austria 0 Rapid 1 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 3.46 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 26, 2014 Author Share Posted April 26, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies QPR v Millwall Millwall don't have a bad record at Loftus Road and are sure to bring a lot of fans with them. They've drawn 2 of their last 3 league games there, losing the other. QPR's form has really dropped off recently, whereas Millwall have been on a great run of 6 games without defeat. Millwall's recent shots stats are better than QPR's by some margin, and I think they look too long here. Millwall still need points urgently. They're in better form and I think they might fight harder for the result. Millwall +0.5 1.94 188Bet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 26, 2014 Author Share Posted April 26, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Sat 26th April 14.00 Croatia HNL1 Lokomotiv Zagreb v Dinamo Zagreb This is a city derby in Zagreb today. Dinamo have already won the league with 4 games left to play. Lokomotive are in mid-table. Lokomotiv used to be a feeder club for the much bigger Dinamo. They are still on friendly terms and share a ground. This is one of those Eastern European derbies that tend to go with historical precedent. Dinamo have won the last five 'away' at Lokomotiv. There is a danger that having just won the league, they might slacken off, but looking at last year, they also won the league with some games remaining and their results didn't seem to suffer in the later games. Looking at Dinamo's h2h record in these derbies, I think odds of 1.68 for them to win looks good value Dinamo Zagreb 1.68 MarathonBet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 26, 2014 Author Share Posted April 26, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Sat 26th April 18.00 Serbia Partizan Belgrade v Red Star Belgrade The famous Belgrade derby. A change of bet type here - I'm backing unders. Looking back, I've noticed 15 out of the last 20 Belgrade derbies have been under 2.5 goals. So odds of 1.7 for under 2.5 look attractive - Under 2.5 1.7 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 26, 2014 Author Share Posted April 26, 2014 Re: Louis' Local Derbies Sun 27th April 12.45 Scottish Premier Hibs v Hearts This is the big Edinburgh derby, and I think there's value in backing Hearts at odds of over 4.0. Hearts are already relegated because they were deducted 15 points at the start of the season. Hibs have been in terrible form recently, whereas Hearts have had some good results. Hearts' recent shots on target stats are much better than Hibs. The 'relegation group' in this league are competing to avoid finishing second from bottom above Hearts. The team that finishes there faces a playoff with the winner of the Championship playoffs - meaning possible relegation. If Hibs' disastrous form continues, there's a good chance it could be them. So Hibs go into this game with more pressure on them. Hearts' odds look too long to me given their better form, shots stats and recent record in these derbies. Hearts 4.4 Marathonbet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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