Louis' Local Derbies, 122 bets, -3.9% yield

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Saturday 26th Jan to Monday 28th Jan Two games for this weekend, one on Sunday and one on Monday Greek Super League Atromitos v Panathinaikos Sunday 27th January 17.30 Athens Derby. Panathinaikos much the bigger club. Atromitos are in better form at the moment. Panathinaikos have a very good record at their smaller neighbours, having won four and drawn one of the last five games there. I think Panathinaikos are good value at odds of up to 3.5 Panathinaikos 3.5 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) League Two Exeter v Torquay Monday 28th January 19.45 Devon derby. Exeter are riding high in 4th place and Torquay struggling in 17th. But these derbies are normally close, and Torquay have won 2 and drawn 2 of the last 5 visits to Exeter. I think Torquay's odds are too high at 4.0. Torquay 4.0 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Atromitos 1 Panathinaikos 2 I thought Atromitos were the better side in the first half. They looked much stronger as a team. You could see Panathinaikos had some good individuals, and one of their forwards took advantage of a bad back pass to give them the lead in the second half. Once Panathinaikos took the lead, Atromitos seemed to fade, and perhaps Panathinaikos just about deserved the win. I thought their goalkeeper was poor though - he seemed unsure and didn't inspire confidence. Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 7 points Exeter 0 Torquay 1 Torquay started well and took the lead with a penalty. Exeter dominated the second half and I thought they deserved at least a draw for their pressure, but Torquay fought hard to defend their lead Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 8 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Wednesday 30th Jan Two recommendations in the Premier League tonight. Fulham v West Ham Wednesday 30th January 20.00 A London derby tonight. West Ham are the bigger club and have a good record at Craven Cottage, having won three of their last five league games there, and drawn one. Both sides are struggling after making good starts to the season. West Ham's away form is very poor, but Fulham have only won one of their last five home games. Overall, I think the odds should be closer than they are and West Ham are good value at odds of up to 3.4 West Ham 3.4 Paddy Power Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Norwich v Tottenham Wednesday 30th January 19.45 Definitely not a 'derby' but Norwich is within easy reach of North London by train or car. Spurs are the bigger club and they will take a lot of fans to Norwich. What drew me to this game was Spurs' excellent record at Norwich. They've won four and drawn one of their last five games there. Norwich have played a lot of top teams recently but even so, they've been struggling. Spurs haven't won for two games, but have been in generally very good form. Considering the gap in class here and Spurs' superb record at Carrow Road, I think Spurs odds are quite attractive at up to 1.85. If Spurs were at home they would be a lot shorter. Tottenham 1.85 Paddy Power Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Fulham 3 West Ham 1 From what I heard Fulham deserved to win, although a few decisions went against West Ham (I think that BBC Radio London said that West Ham should have had a penalty) Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Norwich 1 Tottenham 1 From the BBC report, it seems that Norwich had the better of the first half and Spurs the second. Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Summary of Bets 31-40 As far as I can see, these are the results of Bets 31-40. When I get to 50 bets, I'll try and publish a spreadsheet (possibly in the first post of the thread for simplicity). 2 bets won 8 bets lost All bets were 2 points Details of the two winning bets: Atromitos 1 Panathinaikos 2 Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 7 points Exeter 0 Torquay 1 Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 8 points Staked 10 bets @ 2 points/bet = 20 points Returns from 2 winning bets = 15 points, detailed here: 7 8 ==== 15 /////////////////////////////////////////////////// Summary bets 1-40 ============= Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 121.8 Total staked: 80 Number of bets: 40 @ 2 points Winning bets: 16 Losing bets: 24 Strike rate: 40% Total staked: 80 points Total return: 101.8 points Profit (or Loss) = +21.8 points Yield: +21.8/80 = +27.2% Results are calculated like this : Strike rate = Winning bets / Total bets ( written as a percentage ) Yield = Profit (or Loss) / Total staked ( written as a percentage )

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Saturday 3rd Feb to Sunday 4th Feb Two derbies for this weekend, one in Australia, one in the Championship in England Melbourne Victory v Melbourne Heart Saturday 3rd Feb 08.45 Heart have a good record against their older, larger Melbourne neighbours. Victory are doing well this season, and are in better form than Heart, however past head to head form tends to count for something in local derbies, and this one is always hard-fought. I think Heart's odds are attractive at over 5.0 Melbourne Heart 5.73 PInnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Crystal Palace v Charlton Saturday 3rd Feb 15.00 A South London derby. These games tend to be close and low-scoring. Charlton have a good record at Selhurst Park, having won 3 of their last 5 games there. With Charlton also in slightly better form than Palace, I think their odds are attractive at 4.5. The Draw No Bet is priced attractively at the moment at odds of 3.75, and I think that is a better bet than the straight win. Charlton Draw No Bet 3.75 Coral Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Melbourne Victory 2 Melbourne Heart 1 I saw some of this game and I thought Victory deserved the win. Victory performed better than in past derbies I've seen and Heart worse. Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Crystal Palace 2 Charlton 1 From what I heard, Charlton dominated the first half and Palace the second, Palace possibly deserving the win overall. Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Tuesday 5th Feb One game for tonight - sorry for late posting England League Two Cheltenham v Bristol Rovers 19.45 Rovers have been in good form recently. They are a bigger club than Cheltenham and always take a good crowd there for away games. They have won one and drawn two in their last five visits. I think their odds should be a bit shorter than they are, should be around 3.5 or so I think, so over 4.0 is good value. Bristol Rovers 4.16 PInnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Cheltenham 1 Bristol Rovers 1 From the BBC report and stats it sounds as though a draw was a fair result. Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Monday 11th Feb No recommendations for Saturday or Sunday, but one in Germany for Monday. Bundesliga II Hertha v Union Berlin Monday 11th February 19.15 Big Berlin derby. Hertha are the bigger club. Recent derbies have been close, and Union won their last game here. Hertha are in second place, looking very good for automatic promotion back to the Bundesliga. Union are in fourth place, within 5 points (as of Saturday morning) of third and a playoff place. Both sids are in very good form. Considering it's a derby and past derbies have been close, and the good form of both sides, I think odds of up to 6.3 on Union are good value. Union Berlin 6.3 Unibet Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Another derby for tonight, in Israel: Israel Premier League Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel Aviv Monday 11th February 18.50 Big Tel Aviv derby. Maccabi are comfortably above Hapoel in the table and in better form, but Hapoel's derby record is much better. The two sides share the same ground. Hapoel's record in their last give games as the 'away' side is: won four, drawn four. Odds of over 5.0 on Hapoel look generous to me. Hapoel Tel Aviv 5.05 PInnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Hertha 2 Union Berlin 2 I saw quite a bit of the game. Hertha dominated the play, but Union somehow managed to get a 2-0 lead. I was very impressed with Hertha's passing and close-control forward play. Union struggled to cope with the Hertha attack, and Hertha won a lot of free kicks, and they equalised from one of these near the end. Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Maccabi Tel Aviv 4 Hapoel Tel Aviv 0 The stats I saw suggested Maccabi deserved the win. Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Saturday 16th February to Sunday 17th February 2013 Two derbies on Sunday for this weekend Austrian Bundesliga Rapid Vienna v Austria Vienna Sunday 17th February 15.00 The Vienna derby between these two big rivals. Austria are in better form and top the league. Austria also have a record of winning four and drawing one of their last five games at Rapid. Bearing this in mind, odds of over 3.0 for Austria look attractive. Austria Vienna 3.14 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Bundesliga Hoffenheim v Stuttgart Sunday 17th February 16.30 I don't know if this game is called a derby, but the clubs are fairly close and I am sure that a lot of Stuttgart fans will go to the game. Stuttgart are the bigger club and have won two and drawn two on their last four visits. Hoffenheim are in better form but Stuttgart's odds are attractive at over 3.5 bearing in mind Stuttgart's good record at Hoffenheim. Stuttgart 3.51 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Rapid Vienna 1 Austria Vienna 2 From what I saw, Austria's better finishing made the difference. Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 6.28 points Hoffenheim 0 Stuttgart 1 From what I saw, Stuttgart just about deserved the win. Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 7.02 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 22nd February to Sunday 24th February One game on Friday and one on Saturday for this weekend. Portugal Primeira Liga Estoril v Sporting Friday 22nd February 20.00 Both sides are mid-table at the moment. Sporting is one of the big three clubs in Portugal, averaging over 25,000 attendances this season. Estoril is tiny in comparison, averaging under 2,000. Estoril is about 15 miles from Lisbon. Sporting won the only recent league game at Estoril 4-1. Big clubs tend to wi this sort of derby, especially where they are away to their smaller neighbours. I think odds of nearly 2.5 on Sporting are worth taking. Sporting 2.45 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Bundesliga Schalke v Fortuna Düsseldorf Saturday 23rd February 17.30 Two Bundesliga clubs less than 40 miles apart. Schalke slightly the bigger club, but both get good crowds. Fortuna have only lost one of their last five league games at Schalke. With both side in similar form, I think Fortuna's odds of over 7.0 are much too long and should be taken Fortuna 7.35 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Estoril 3 Sporting 1 I saw most of this game. Sporting seemed to have talented forwards, but little drive as a team. Estoril played much better as a team. Sporting could easily have won the game. They missed a penalty and Estoril scored one. Overall, Estoril certainly deserved to win and Sporting were disappointing. Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points Schalke 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 I saw most of the game. After the first 10 minutes, it really looked as though Schalke would win by around 3 goals. They completely dominated the first half with top class possession football and dangerous attacking. They duly took the lead following a free kick. Fortuna looked a different side in the second half and equalised. You even got the idea that Fortuna could win the game after that. However, Schalke got a late winner. Overall they deserved the win and looked very impressive. Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 1st March to Sunday 3rd March No recommendations for this weekend. Several derbies, including Tottenham v Arsenal on Sunday, but I haven't found any noticeable value.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 8th March to Sunday 10th March Once again, no recommendations for this weekend. I couldn't find any value.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 15th March to Sunday 17th March One tip for this weekend, in North America - USA MLS New York Red Bulls v DC United Saturday 16th March 16.30 In general I prefer betting on derbies in England, or at least in Europe, but now and then there are derbies elsewhere in the world which seem to offer some value. This fixture might not seem like a local derby, but New York and Washington DC are close enough for the two teams to feel some rivalry, and a fair number of away fans do travel to these games. DC finished last season's league in better form than New York. They also have a good record at New York, having won three and drawn one of their last five games there. So I thihk odds of up to 4.1 on DC United are worth taking. DC United 4.1 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Result New York Red Bulls 0 DC United 0 I saw most of the game. New York were on top virtually throughout, and I thought they definitely deserved to win. DC seemed happy to defend, and they didn't do that very well. Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 29th March to Monday 1st April No recommendations for this weekend. I couldn't find any value.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 5th April to Sunday 7th April One game this weekend, in the Austrian second tier today. Austria Erste Liga Austria Lustenau v FC Lustenau Friday 5th April 17.30 Best home/draw/away odds Austria 1.8 Draw 3.9 FC Lust. 4.8 These two clubs share a ground in Lustenau. Austria is the bigger club. Austria are second in the table with a good chance of promotion. FC Lustenau are in mid-table, and realistically won't go up or down this season. As is quite often the case with derbies, the away side tends to do well. Here, FC Lustenau have won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 5 games 'away' to Austria. Although they are in second place, Austria haven't won for five games, and their recent form is similar to Lustenau's. Overall, taking into account it is a derby and Lustenau's decent record in the away derbies, I think Lustenau's odds should be shorter and they are good value at odds of 4.8. FC Lustenau 4.8 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Friday 5th April to Sunday 7th April One game this weekend, in the Austrian second tier today. Austria Erste Liga Austria Lustenau v FC Lustenau Friday 5th April 17.30 Best home/draw/away odds Austria 1.8 Draw 3.9 FC Lust. 4.8 These two clubs share a ground in Lustenau. Austria is the bigger club. Austria are second in the table with a good chance of promotion. FC Lustenau are in mid-table, and realistically won't go up or down this season. As is quite often the case with derbies, the away side tends to do well. Here, FC Lustenau have won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 5 games 'away' to Austria. Although they are in second place, Austria haven't won for five games, and their recent form is similar to Lustenau's. Overall, taking into account it is a derby and Lustenau's decent record in the away derbies, I think Lustenau's odds should be shorter and they are good value at odds of 4.8. FC Lustenau 4.8 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Austria Lustenau 1 FC Lustenau 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Saturday 20th April to Sunday 21st April Two derbies for this weekend, both on Sunday. CSKA Moscow v Spartak Moscow Sunday 21st April 10.30am Traditionally the biggest Moscow derby. CSKA lead the table by six points with six games to go. Spartak are back in fifth place with only a Europa League place to aim for. The away side tends to do well in these derbies. Spartak have won three of the last five away to CSKA in the league, and I think they are good value at odds of nearly 3/1. Spartak Moscow 3.8 Bet365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Austria Vienna v Rapid Vienna Sunday 21st April 15.00 The Vienna derby. Rapid is the bigger club and these derbies are always hard-fought. Austria are the better side this season and are eight points clear at the top of the table. Rapid are third. Austria's form has tailed off recently, and they have only won one of their last five games - the same as Rapid. Rapid normally do well away at Austria, and have only lost one game in their last five visits, drawing two and winning two. Rapid look worth backing here at odds of nearly 4/1. Rapid Vienna 4.8 BetVictor/Stan James Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Saturday 20th April to Sunday 21st April Two derbies for this weekend, both on Sunday. CSKA Moscow v Spartak Moscow Sunday 21st April 10.30am Traditionally the biggest Moscow derby. CSKA lead the table by six points with six games to go. Spartak are back in fifth place with only a Europa League place to aim for. The away side tends to do well in these derbies. Spartak have won three of the last five away to CSKA in the league, and I think they are good value at odds of nearly 3/1. Spartak Moscow 3.8 Bet365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: CSKA Moscow 2 Spartak Moscow 2 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points I saw most of the game. CSKA played the more controlled football for most of the game, but Spartak raised their game and fought harder than CSKA. Spartak took the lead on the break before half time and got a second after half time. CSKA then missed a penalty, before getting one back and finally equalising with another penalty in added time at the end. I thought a draw was probably a fair result.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Austria Vienna v Rapid Vienna Sunday 21st April 15.00 The Vienna derby. Rapid is the bigger club and these derbies are always hard-fought. Austria are the better side this season and are eight points clear at the top of the table. Rapid are third. Austria's form has tailed off recently, and they have only won one of their last five games - the same as Rapid. Rapid normally do well away at Austria, and have only lost one game in their last five visits, drawing two and winning two. Rapid look worth backing here at odds of nearly 4/1. Rapid Vienna 4.8 BetVictor/Stan James Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Austria Vienna 2 Rapid Vienna 2 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points I saw a lot of the game. Austria played much the better football and had most of the play but Rapid raised their game and fought hard as a team. Austria twice took the lead and each time Rapid equalised.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Saturday 27th April to Sunday 28th April Two derbies for this weekend, both on Saturday. Bulgaria A PFG Levski Sofia v CSKA Sofia Saturday 27th April 14.00 The main derby in Sofia, the Bulgarian capital. With seven games to go in the league, both these sides are in contention at the top of the table. CSKA are four points behind Levski. CSKA are in slightly better form and have a good record away at Levski, having won two and drawn two of their last five games there. I think they are reasonable value at odds of 3.2 here. CSKA Sofia 3.2 Bet365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Spain Primera Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Saturday 27th April 19.00 It's third v second in the Spanish league. Both clubs are virtually certain to finish second and third, but this is a big local derby. Real Madrid have a superb record at Atletico, having won their last five games there. They are also in slightly better form than Atletico, so I am happy to back them at odds of nearly 2/1. Real Madrid 2.88 BetVictor Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Saturday 27th April to Sunday 28th April Two derbies for this weekend, both on Saturday. Bulgaria A PFG Levski Sofia v CSKA Sofia Saturday 27th April 14.00 The main derby in Sofia, the Bulgarian capital. With seven games to go in the league, both these sides are in contention at the top of the table. CSKA are four points behind Levski. CSKA are in slightly better form and have a good record away at Levski, having won two and drawn two of their last five games there. I think they are reasonable value at odds of 3.2 here. CSKA Sofia 3.2 Bet365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Levski Sofia 2 CSKA Sofia 1 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Spain Primera Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Saturday 27th April 19.00 It's third v second in the Spanish league. Both clubs are virtually certain to finish second and third, but this is a big local derby. Real Madrid have a superb record at Atletico, having won their last five games there. They are also in slightly better form than Atletico, so I am happy to back them at odds of nearly 2/1. Real Madrid 2.88 BetVictor Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

Result: Atletico Madrid 1 Real Madrid 2 Bet won Stake: 2 points Return: 5.76 points Real fielded a weakened side and this lead to their odds increasing before kick off. The report I saw suggested they might have been a bit lucky to win.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 3rd May to Monday 6th May No recommendations for this weekend. I couldn't find any value.