BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012

[The Saint]

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[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 340 Yarmouth – Irish Girl’s Spirit – 7/2 - Bet 365 Dicks on Betfair... WHY can't they just wait?! Finished 2nd @ Windsor over 5f on hcap debut despite seeing daylight almost all the way and coming under pressure from halfway. Showed a great attitude and still unexposed - possible improver, larger field and stiffer track may suit too. Rain staying away probably best...

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 340 - Yarmouth - Irish Girls Spirit - 7/2 Bet365 BOG Dont mean to be a copy cat but like The Saint, I qute fancy the look of this one. Further to the above post, the selection ran TS of 58 (RPR 59) which gives her plenty of wiggle room tomorrow with most of the conditions set to suit. I too am a little worried about the potential rain that comes in as there are next to no sire stats for this horse to go off, and I am also concerned about how well the track will suit, being a handy horse on a predominately hold up track.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 Iron Condor 8.00 Kempton. 1 point win. Can win this if putting his best hoof forward. The trip, track and race look suitable and a mark of 73 is generous by the handicapper. Looks worth a bet. 11/1 Betfred (bog)

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 H3.50 Hills of Dakota 1pt Win 8/1 Ladbrokes There's plenty to like about this lightly raced horse from the Barron stable. It's 2 from 2 when it's raced on ground with some give in it (being progeny of Sleeping Indian, it'll certainly enjoy these conditions more than most). The trainer also has the best strike rate at the track and the horse should be ready to do itself justice today after its seasonal debut a month ago on ground that would've been too quick for it anyway. I'm hoping that any bias regarding the draw will paly into this ones hands (drawn 15 of 15) and 8/1 looks like a decent price.

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 Anton Chigurh 3.10pm Yarmouth 12-1 Bet365 (BOG) - EACH WAY Was ridden from the back at Ponty over 6f and that doesn't really suit but it picked up once they turned for home, still seems to be learning its trade and it ran on well enough to grab 3rd. I see the step up to 7f as a positive as it did its best work in the last furlong or so and it looked well in the paddock before the race at Ponty. I can see that race won by Byronic Hero turning out ok with a few potential future winners in it. It's hard to tell from the replay but I don't think it had too much of a rounded action so this better ground could suit. Runs off same rating of 74 and speed in pedigree from Oasis Dream. 12-1 looks worthy of ew interest to me.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 *Operation Tracer - Yarmouth 4:10* I feel the horse didn't go a yard on the soft going last time out, so now on forecast good to firm ground, i think more can be expected. It had 3 decent runs last year, running with credit on all 3 starts. Step up in trip is likely to suit too. Has dropped 3 pounds to a very leniant 64 and at the price is worth a bet. *0.5 Points e/w @ 16/1 Boylesports BOG*

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 18.05 Epsom: Kings Troop @ 11/2 Bet365 Epsom specialist who has won twice plus one third place in four starts here and goes very well on soft ground and over 12f, he's also very well handicapped as he's finally down to a very handy mark again, now 3lb below his last winning mark. He doesn't have good form in his book since his last win here at Epsom, though the reason might be that he had to race of high marks. However there is one positive exception: When he ran here at Epsom last year off an 8lb higher mark than his current one and finished a strong third. I don't pay too much attention to the two runs he had this year as I think he'll be primed for tomorrows race, back at his beloved track. He gets the assistance of the very useful 7lb claimer William Twiston-Davies which should ensure that he has a massive chance from the weights in a race with not too many obvious candidates.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 2.20 Haydock - 1pt win Brockwell @ 5/1 (Bet365) Very keen on Tom Dascombe's charge here with his runners going well and this one has been in good form. Still relatively unexposed with only six runs under his belt to date, he's finished 2nd on his two most recent starts - having not been beaten far on his handicap debut over an insufficient 1m. Didn't get the run of the race in a four-runner event at Leicester two starts back when taking a hold (as can often be the case in a small field) but only went down by a neck to a nice horse with several lengths back to the third. That winner since was barely beaten 2l in the King George handicap at Royal Ascot and is now rated 86. Brockwell couldn't get past a handicap debutant last time of David Barron's yard but that one has franked the form by winning under a penalty next time out so the 2lb higher mark of my selection shouldn't rule him out of running another fine race. Although he faces his elders for the first time today, he's got more improvement in here than most and gets a hefty bit of weight from his older rivals. I think he can progress pass these today and get his first win under his belt.

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 7.10 EPSOM SOHRAAB @ 13/2 CORAL .5 ew Looked like she might be worth a try over this fast 6f when staying on over 5f at York last time. Ran well off this mark here last August when beaten less than a length. Most of her best form is with cut in the ground so more rain will not be a problem. Morrison is 21% at the track (25% with older horses). Corals look big at 13/2 so i'll go non BOG at my peril!

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012

Dicks on Betfair... WHY can't they just wait?!

Thinking exactly the same myself having planned to wade in on Flynns Boy this morning. Opened up 8/1 last night, 12/1 on the RP forecast, Boyles, Betfred and Tote all go 10/1 so I waited for the other firms to price up. Went off for half an hour, came back and BOOM. Best priced 9/2. £6k traded on Betfair and the sheep traders scared of creating arbs and slash and slash. grrrrrrrrrrrrr 8.00 Newbury My Sharona - ran well at Lingfield on slow ground leading everywhere but the line. This looks a bit more competitive but still improving and should handle conditions. 9/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012

Thinking exactly the same myself having planned to wade in on Flynns Boy this morning. Opened up 8/1 last night, 12/1 on the RP forecast, Boyles, Betfred and Tote all go 10/1 so I waited for the other firms to price up. Went off for half an hour, came back and BOOM. Best priced 9/2. £6k traded on Betfair and the sheep traders scared of creating arbs and slash and slash. grrrrrrrrrrrrr 8.00 Newbury My Sharona - ran well at Lingfield on slow ground leading everywhere but the line. This looks a bit more competitive but still improving and should handle conditions. 9/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win

I took some 8/1 last night, was gunna take the 10/1 morning but had to go to the dentist, come back and as you said, well backed into 4/1. Still like Main Beach in that race though, massive price at 20/1 imo. My bets today, Space Station 14/1 into 6/1, Flynns Boy 8/1 into 4/1 and Alakhan 10/1 into 6/1, will probably end up with nitto. 3.10 Yarmouth - Main Beach - 18/1 Bet365 Recently switched to Paul Midgley who's in good form of late and this one shaped well lto in a decent class 4 handicap at Doncaster. Missed the break quite badly but travelled into the race nicely before staying on the one pace into 6th. Well handicapped on his best form and won a seller two starts ago over similar conditions today. Big field should ensure a decent pace and there looks to be a few nibbles for him at big prices, was well supported lto.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 710 Epsom: Mac Gillie Eoin EW (8/1 Betfred) Tentative vote on a right mish mash of a days racing, good courses holding very average racing? Anyway this horse loves Epsom, won this race a couple of times and noticed he had ran better than his finishing position suggests a couple of times this season. Wont want the heavens to open but cant ignore off a mark of 80, his lowest since 2007. He could well hang on to a place in this company.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 4.10 Yarmouth - Disposition - EW 14/1 B365 Not many John Gosden horses go off at a big price, particularly in these connections. Handicap debut for a stable who can do no wrong. Ignore her last run as she hated the ground. Prior to that she ran a very promising race behind a horse I rate very highly (Irish History). The Cumani favourite appears to be well backed and could be hard to beat but I'll take a chance on this filly making the frame at a decent price.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 1420 haydock .5 ew kians joy 12/1 betfred 4th last time out after a bad start at beverley,finishing well .a winner at newcastle in april on soft ground, and a reproduction of that may win this race on todays soft ground

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 6.35 Epsom - Rising Legend - 2nd last time out while staying on in a 6f novice race at Newmarket, his breeding suggests he should stay this extra furlong today and he should improve for his first run. The winner from his last race ran 2nd next time out in a listed race, while the third went on to win his next two races franking the form of the race. Richard Hanon has an excellent record here at Epsom when his runners are clear favourite with 30 winners from 59 runners that have started clear favourite since 1997. 6.35 Epsom: Rising Legend - 1pt win @ 7/4 PaddyPower (BOG)

[gman1]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 830 leopardstown total reality eachway 14/1 hills tried to lead all the way over 13 furlongs last time out at roscommon. faded into 3rd late on, but with the drop to a mile and a half and the positive booking of joey o brien this one has a live chance of repeating the dose and the reduced distance might mean this former hurdle winner could be massively overpriced..even in a huge field

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 Haydock 4.20 - Don't Call Me 1pts win 5/2 Bet365 Came back from some poor runs lto with a good 3rd at Ascot in the Royal Hunt Cup only beaten a length and a quarter and today is an easier task. Looking through his past runs this horse normally comes to hand in these summer months so Im hoping lto was the signal for that happening this year. Is only 2lbs higher today then that Ascot run and looks the one to beat in this field.

[GILLY57]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 Takitwo 3.10 Yarmouth - 1pt win 16/1 bog with Ladbrokes Isn't being supported in the market but odds are too good to resist. 2 wins from three this season; most recent last week at Salisbury. Overall 8 wins from 42 over 7 furlongs so worth a nibble. Carries a 6lb penalty for last week's success but not insurmountable.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 Yarmouth - 3.10 - Rough Rock @ 10/1 William Hill Course specialist who has won 6 times at Yarmouth, 2 of those being over C&D. Won an Apprentice handicap at Newmarket comfortably a couple of weeks back and looked to be going well when meeting quite abit of trouble lot over this C&D lot. Returns here again with 7lb claimer Joshua Crane on board who won on him at Newmarket and should be in with a good shout. Also won this race last year.

[smokeit34]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 2.40 Yarmouth - Iffley Fields @ 3/1 w/ bet 365 Ran prominently over 6f at Windsor when hampered in final furlong, was up with the leaders all the way until that point. Still beat Strawberry Duck and with an unhampered run will go close today. 6th of 10 that day does not show true form. This is not the strongest race in my view so will take on Smiling Shark who has been placed in first seller with Iffley Fields :cigar

[LJD]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 April Fool - 7.45 Epsom I really like this horse and the way that it performs - It's one of my favourites. This horse is a front runner and likes the small fields. There are 10 runners in this race due to there being two non runners so the task for the horse gets a bit easier. It had been in good form before its previous run and I don't see any reason why it can't bounce back to at least grab a place. It has won three times this year - including two races at 7f and one at a mile so it is experienced and can win at this sort of distance. It has also beaten one of these horses before and in my opinion the price is big enough to have a go on. April fool E/W @ 16/1 hills BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 6:50 Newbury - Equitania - Back Made a really good debut when a good 2nd in a strong looking race before being taken to royal ascot lto. Well held then but was a quality race and he's eased back down in grade here. This much more realistic and has a big chance 1pt win @ 5/4 Paddy Power BOG

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 6:05 Epsom - King's Troop - 1pt Win (5/1, Hills) Meets the favourite effectively 10 pounds lighter than when racing against each other last time out with my selection being dropped 3 pounds since that run, and having a 7 pound claimer on board today. Has won over the C+D and is well handicapped on past form, it won over the C+D off a mark of 75 and is effectively racing off 65 today with the claim. Will handle the ground as well so hoping for a big run.

[DC]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 7:45 Epsom SPACE STATION e/w 8-1 Betinternet (BOG) I like to look out for horses who can win at Epsom when backing here, and a couple stand out, Corporal Maddox, but I fear the value has gone now so will settle for Space Station (plus I prefer Seb Sanders riding for me than Hayley Turner) at 8-1. Really well weighed, runs today off 78, won off 81 (at Epsom) all beit on gd/firm but can win on ground this soft too (won at Goodwood off 80 the previous year on soft). Might be getting on a bit at the age of 6 and has to overcome a handicap debut 3yr old Henry Allingham, but no value there at 11-4. Klynch is on really good form, but think the penalty will put pay today. Space Station so consistant over this trip, places 9 times over 7f. Rondeau is another that could run well at a price, but I'll settle for this one who has already won twice at this tricky track.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 Danny, who the flip are betinternet when they are at home?? You can have 8/1 with Laddies if you want, we only accept those on odds checker with BOG:ok

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 7.45 Epsom Konstantin 1pt win @ 10/1 Hills This horse won very nicely over CD on his last start of last season. He looked to be back to form last time out at Goodwood where he finished a close up 4th. He does remain 6lbs higher than his highest ever winning mark but Katia Scanlan takes off a handy 7lbs tonight which makes him tempting. The track is favouring those that race up with the pace and Konstantin is one of them. The young jockey does have a few winners for the stable every now and again so heres hoping they can team up again in what looks a tricky handicap.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 9:05 Newbury - Misdemenour 5/2 bet365 - win Reasoning below

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 Misdemenour - Hannon and Hughes partnering in the lucky last. A pound clear in the handicap and probably has a few in hand. Hughes is returning after an absence of two races on the 3yo. The last time he was jock on the 3yo, he won.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 5th July 2012 I've actually made a huge mistake with the above! Was meant to be for Biographer, but that's now a NR!! Still think this one'll do the business though. Let's see how it goes...