BBOTD Saturday 16th June

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.35 York - 1pt win Halfsin @ 9/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his run at Epsom recently:

3.55 Epsom - 1pt win Halfsin @ 10/1 (Hills) Quite a big price for Marco Botti's entry here who was relatively progressive last campaign. After getting off the mark at the fifth attempt (when fresh), he won two handicaps over this trip including a 1l victory over a subsequent winner off a higher mark with the pair clear. He is 10lbs higher now himself, but ran very well behind a subsequent listed winner off level weights next time before he didn't quite get home over 1m4f at Ascot in September when racing wide. He's proven he can go well fresh and the return to 1m2f is bang up his street. Soft ground shouldn't inconvenience and if returning in the same form, has a big chance today.

Was quite a promising effort on his first run back given the ground was very testing. Proved he was still in decent form when not disgraced having kicked on from the front before tiring in the conditions. Should have come on plenty for that run and he also sweated badly that day. Had a stiff task at the weights in a listed event last time out when again not humiliated and the return to a handicap will suit today. The ground is possibly not totally ideal but he has gone on soft before and I think he'll run his best race of the season here.

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 5:15 York - Ginger Ted - 0.5 pts E/W (20/1, SkyBet) Going to take another chance on this horse for tomorrow, finished 3rd over same C+D last July off a 12 pound higher mark so could well be very handicapped tomorrow. Hasn't shown much in 3 runs for Stuart Williams so far this year even though it's conditions to suit but I'm chancing the fact they've set this one up for tomorrow. Got a great young jockey on board tomorrow (Doyle) who's been banging in the winners lately and with the 3 pound drop in the weights from last time out, running off 77 tomorrow I'm fairly hopeful of a big run.

[gman1]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 310 york Gabrials Lad 14/1 laddies eachway handicap debutant who has 3 runs under his belt with a 221. is up in grade and hard to know what is to be expected but has a good jpckey in kieran fallon on board and could be of interest to the place market followers.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June *Van Ellis - York 3:10* Ran over a trip just short of a mile last time out, and faded in the finalo furlong, so the switch back to 6f should be back in it's favour. It won a race in Ireland, at Dundalk, over 7f, and look a progressive lightly raced type for the Mark Johnton yard. Is now only 1 pound higher than when a good 2nd to Laffan at Epon over 7f two runs back. With 4 places on offer, looks a good e/w bet at the price. The yard is in good nick, and Mirco Demuro looks a very promising jockey, with 7 winners from 29 rides for the Johnston team. *0.5 Points e/w @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG*

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 13.15 Turffontein: Eagle High @ 6/4 Sportingbet If this 2yo filly confirms the promise which she showed on her debut last month then she won't be beatable here. She was gambled from 33/1 into 9/1 before the race and ran accordingly. It was almost like from last to first as she had been still almost seven lengths behind the pace 400m out but finished eventually like a train and won it in stunning fashion. She couldn't have been more impressive and that performance looks special. She finished the race in a time that would see her - as a 2yo filly - competitive in Listed race company against older horses already. The time she clocked for the final 400m was phenomenal for a 2yo as well. But that was only her debut run and it will be very interesting to see how far she can go. She should improve for the experience allot anyway and it's hard to see her get beaten in this field where only Gauntlet makes a bit appeal.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 2.35 York Hillview Boy win @ 8/1 William Hill This looks a cracking little contest in which plenty can be given a chance. One that interests me coming back from a break is the ex David Barron trained Fighter Boy making his first start for Mick Easterby. I do however think he is best watched and I quite fancy the chances of Hillview Boy. He himself has had his own problems but he looked right back to form last time out at Hamilton. He does take a big drop in trip here, which is a worry, but the way he travelled last time out suggested to me he could cope with the drop back in trip. He has won over this distance in his younger days and he will be suited by the way this race is run. There are a few in here that will want the lead, which should ensure a good pace to the race. Hillview Boy would want a good pace to run at over this trip and the soft ground may also help him. He is proven on soft ground and is handicapped to go close. Graham Lee has been doing well since switching codes and I fancy Hillview Boy to go close in this.

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 4.50 BATH DORAS GIFT @ 6/1 BET365 (B0G) Could have been let in lightly here off 63, has been staying on well over 1m on the AW and is stepped up to 1m 3f for his hcap debut. Drawn ok in 8. Morrison is in decent form and this is his only runner of the day, he has a decent record at Bath

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 5.05 Hexham MAN OF PRINCIPLES win @ 5/1 bog (Bet365 and Skybet) I had written this 5 weeks ago: « 3:00 » Fakenham TUE 8 MAY 2012 TOTEPOOL HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 5) (5yo+ 0-95) Winner £3,249 Good To Soft 2m5f110y Number of runners: 11 MAN OF PRINCIPLES 4pts to win @ 7/1 bog (Bet365) Man Of Principles is a 9yo gelding trained by Stuart Coltherd since last June. The horse won a Irish PTP (29 Nov 2009, 3m, heavy) but under rules he was able to collect only 4 seconds (over 2m4f-2m7f, all on ground soft/heavy) in 12 starts over hurdles in Ireland (rated up to 100). His first outs in UK were pretty poor (racing off 100 and 95 in handicap hurdles) but with the new year (2012) Man Of Principles was switched back over fences (he had already jumped the higher obstacles in his last three starts in Ireland) but his three outs ended with these results: UR-F-UR. Still he had been showing a bit of quality in those efforts first of all that he loved to lead (led in all those races as he's been doing in most of his career starts thus far) but his jumping was still to be improved a lot. Two months ago Coltherd tried to drop him in trip and booked Ryan Mania for the ride (together with that jockey he had been showing his best at Newcastle on his second last start when still comfortably leading before falling in a race won by Tipsy Dara over Shadow Boxer). Racing over 2m (Carlisle, heavy ground, 8 Mar 2012) helped this front-runner mainly to get his confidence back and even if he was badly outpaced when the winner kicked on, he kept on gamely to finish second just 2L behind the winner so he showed that it wasn't the trip the problem. And that was confirmed next time out (Hexham, 2m5f, good to soft, 15 Mar 2012) when he finally had a clear round of jumps and bolted up, surely helped by a mistake of the favourite 2 out but he made all and was eased down in the run-in and still able to win by 33L over the Sue Smith-trained Cloudy Dawn with Sam Patch 4th and beaten 46L. Connections put him back on track just one week later (Carlisle, 2m, good to soft, 22 Mar 2012) since the horse had been was hoisted 17lb for that easy win (off 74) and they wanted to to race him soon as he had just to carry a 7lb penalty and Jason Maguire was booked for the ride but Man Of Principles was soon taken off his feet and was given some sharp reminders with a full circuit to go and he was tailed off when eventually calling it a day. He will be bang up against it in future unless the handicapper has second thoughts. Surely a day off and three races in two weeks were probably too much. The horse enjoyed a full month off and came back on track at Hexham over 2m7f (heavy, 23 Apr 2012) partnered again with Ryan Mania who soon sent him ahead and even if that wasn't a clear round of jumps on very testing conditions the horse made a strong selection and kept the lead till the second last fence with only Tipsy Dara able to stay close throughout. The grey mare of the Alexanders took advantage of a bad jump of her rival at the second last and kicked for home and Man Of Principles trying to reply slipped up on the final bend and it was game over. Sam Patch was coming strong from behind so he could have probably lost also the second (was looking tired) but it was gonna be a pretty decent performance off his new mark of 91 and surely 2m7f on those very testing conditions seemed a bit too far for him. Back to 2m5f on ground less testing but still soft enough and over a track which usually gives a big advantage to the front-runners with Ryan Mania back on board Man Of Principles stands a very big chance in this race in my opinion given a clear round of jumps of course. According to me Mania has to help his horse to stay focused on his jumping as the three market leaders are not that special. The big favourite at the moment is Farewallatmidnight who won in nice style over this C&D (good to soft) beating Ballyoliver (who won on hist last start) one month ago. She is still very lightly raced as this is gonna be just her 4th start over fences and 11th overall so she could well be able to keep improving and she surely loves this track as her only other success (over hurdles) came in her only other start here at Fakenham (2m4f, good to soft, 30 Jan 2011) which was her debut over hurdles. Still she has now to face a 7lb hike for her last win and was beaten 13L by Sam Patch (2nd and 3rd) in her previous start (6 days before her win) at Sedgefield (2m6f, soft) and Sam Patch had been beaten 46L by Man Of Principles on his previous start (Hexham, 2m5f, good to soft, 15 Mar 2012, off a 5lb higher mark) and was well behind (but could have possibly beaten him) when Man Of Principles slipped up on the final bend last time out (23 Apr) at Hexham (2m7f, heavy) with Man Of Principles racing off his new mark of 91 (17lb higher than the one he had when he beat Sam Patch by 46L) and Sam Patch off 77, the same he had 20 days before when be beat 13L Farewallatmidnight who was then still racing off 82 (90 today). Surely a collateral line which enhances my idea that Man Of Principles needs a clear round of jump and can't be that scared of these rivals. The other big danger should be Springfield Raki who was the favourite of the race won by Farewallatmidnight over this C&D one month ago and finished 4th beaten 22L that day. He won already here at Fakenham but over 3m1f (18 Mar 2011), which was his only win over fences and only success in the last 3 years, and even if his mark is dropped to 95 (the same he had last time out here) and Steve Gollings' horses seem all in good form at the moment (the trainer had a nice winner on the flat yesterday) he has still a lot to prove to reverse that form with Farewellatmidnight over a trip probably a bit too short for him even if last time out he was a bit better finishing 4th but beaten just 7.25L by Ballyoliver at Market Rasen over 2m4f (soft) racing 3lb out of the handicap and without the 10lb claimer on board (booked again for the today's ride). Phoenix Des Mottes seems the third and last big rival of my selection in this race. The horse of the Cornwalls has finished worse than 4th only once in his last 7 starts and finally achieved his 2nd victory over fences (his first came in March 2010 at Southwell over 3m1f on good ground) winning over 2m4f at Stratford (good, 24 Mar) off 73 (second off the same mark on his previous out at Huntingdon over 3m on good to soft). Upped to 79 /78 today) Phoenix Des Mottes finished 4th of 6 last time out but was beaten 36L at Southwell over 2m5f (good to soft) and when he won at Stratford he beat only three horses and all have been racing pretty bad both before and after that race. So Man Of Principles is not an easy horse to ride but this looks a race tailor made for him if he can complete 16 good jumps over these fences and it's a very valuable bet at current prices. Imho he didn't handle the track and once lost the lead he faded tamely to finish 6th tailed off. Man Of Principles ran just one more time since that race at Fakenham and it was 2 weeks ago at Cartmel (2m4f) where he found a sound surface under his feet which he doesn't handle at all (his PTP success, his 4 seconds over hurdles in Ireland and his win and second over fences in UK in March were all on good soft/soft/heavy). Last time he ran over C&D he bolted up by 33L (racing off 77) and last race here at Hexham (over 3m1f so 4f farther than this) he was very unlucky to slip up in the last bend when would have been a clear second (racing off 91). Ryan Mania was partnering him for his second at Carlisle, his easy win over C&D and that unlucky effort over 3m1f here at Hexham in April and the jockey is back in his saddle for today's race. The ground is officially heavy which is another big plus, his mark has dropped from 91 to 86 which surely helps and in this small field (7 runners) he should be able to dominate which is another plus. His main opponent is Fog Patches who finished second on his last two starts at Perth and Cartmel and his third last outing was here at Hexham over 3m1f in that race where Man Of Principles led and slipped up in the last bend. He was then sent-off as the 7/4 favourite of the race but didn't jump well and when already well beaten was pulled up. Man Of Principles was giving him 1lb that day and the difference increased to 2lb for today's race but that won't make the difference of course. Surely the Lucinda Russell-trained 6yo is in form now but his last two good efforts came on good ground and in the past never performed at that level with cut in the ground and in his previous visit here (Nov 2011) he finished 5th and second last beaten almost 30L. Sheepclose was beaten 2L in third in a Sedgefield novices' handicap chase last time out (17 days ago) and if able to build on that effort could go close but his profile is more than patchy, all his best efforts came at Sedgefield and there are big concerns about the ground. Treehouse is the only other runner who won here at Hexham but that success, as all his 4 chase wins, came over 3m1f and this trip seems a bit too short for him. Hist last win came in April and the previous two and the following two efforts read: PF (pulled up and fell) so he's far from reliable. The other three runners seem to have just a small chance and all in all this seems a big chance for my selection if able to dominate and jump soundly.

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 415 York - Munsad - 9/1 - Fred Whats happened to the PL app? This one got into trouble last time out and finished very well. Surely still ahead of mark. CD fine. Pd up in London - on phone - poor right up! GL all. Looks a tough day!

[Kithanga]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June York 4.15 Carragold 8-1 Boylesports (bog) In form and suited by the ground, which is likely to be very testing, this progressive 6yo gelding should go close in what is a very competitive handicap. He's fairly priced though this morning and I can see him going off much shorter which his prominent racing style also very well suited to the conditions today

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 3.15 Bath Dreams Of Glory loves it here and racked up a hat-trick over sprint distances here around this time last year. Only a pound above his last winning mark and has a high draw which is vital over this sprint distance here.Stable in decent nick and seems to handle amy ground although probably wouldn't want too much rain. All in all should run a big race at a tasty price. 1 Pt win 16/1 Corals

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 3.45 York - Tullius - Progressive type who has improved in his last three races. He will definitely act on the likely going (soft) as his last two wins were on soft. Racing in the same class as his win last time out and has also won at the distance. The Andrew Balding/Jimmy Fortune combo runs to 89 runners with 26 winners (SR of 29.89%) but is running at a loss of -13.03pts. If maintaining this strike rate together then the 11/8 available may represent a little value. 3.45 York: Tullius - qpt win @ 11/8 Bet365 (BOG)

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June

*Van Ellis - York 3:10* Ran over a trip just short of a mile last time out, and faded in the finalo furlong, so the switch back to 6f should be back in it's favour. It won a race in Ireland, at Dundalk, over 7f, and look a progressive lightly raced type for the Mark Johnton yard. Is now only 1 pound higher than when a good 2nd to Laffan at Epon over 7f two runs back. With 4 places on offer, looks a good e/w bet at the price. The yard is in good nick, and Mirco Demuro looks a very promising jockey, with 7 winners from 29 rides for the Johnston team. *0.5 Points e/w @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG*

Non-Runner BH!! *Pastures New - Lingfield 9:05* This is an absolutely dire race, and should not take much winning, so i am going to take a chance on a huge priced horse each way. Thi horse has only beat 1 horse home in 2 runs, but does step back down in class from it's last race, and has had a nice long break since, and could well come back fresh and primed for a big run. It is related to 3 winners from the USA and Puerto Rico, so at least there is a winning line in the family. This is Des Donovan's only runner of the day and when Adam Beschizza rides for him on the All-Weather at Lingfield, he i 1 winner from 2 rides producing a profit of +£3.00 to level stakes. I will take a chance at the price, as the favourite has a lot to prove. *0.5 Points e/w @ 100/1 Hills BOG*

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June Y5.15 Go Go Green 0.5pt E/W 16/1 William Hill This one should be filed under the heading if "eyecatching jockey booking" but to be honest, I'd picked it out as the form selection before noticing that Jim Goldie had booked Fallon for the ride. It's only course form was a few years back when staying on to finish 4th in an 18 runner handicap over a furlong less so that would suggest the track and todays distance won't be a problem. It's also getting its favoured ground today after some runs on ground that would've been too quick for it. It's also racing off a 3lb lower mark than its last winning one so everything looks set for a decent run today.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 235 York: Navajo Chief EW (6/1 Bet365/WH) Tight race but thought this one was about to strike after a good fourth to Penitent and then fifth to Fury, they tried a longer trip last time which put me off but he ran creditably to finish fourth to the well handicapped Danadana. He went for home early enough but didn't get home and he will be better switched back in trip slightly. Fallon rides so no excuses there and the only negative is that he has only race on soft once, that was in the G3 Horris Hill as a 2yo so maybe we cant take that literally anyway. Likes the track and everything looks set for a big run from the front end. Looks sure to be placed in my opinion and may just hold on today.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 7.55 Limerick - One Fine Day - Win 9/2 Boyles Been looking forward to this filly to reappear as she made a big impression lto. That was only her second start but she showed a real turn of foot to win easily. The form of that win has yet to be tested properly but the sixth (who was a long way back) ran a very good race to finish 2nd in a Roscommon maiden last week and the 7th finished 3rd in the same race. One Fine Day will have no problem with conditions and she looks capable of winning of a mark of 83 in this fillies handicap.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 2:50 Sandown: Standing Strong 1pt win 14/1 Bet365 Standing Strong might be worth chancing here on his handicap debut. Standing Strong looks to have a progressive profile and maybe the reported high head carriage last time was due to the going rather than his attitude. With some give underfoot here and the stable amongst the winners of the past two weeks, Strangely Strong looks a little overpriced especially as the yard take a chance of running out of the handicap when presumably there could be other mile handicaps.

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June York 3.45 - Dance and Dance 1pts Win 7/4 William Hill I was impressed with Dance and Dance's effort lto in the Diomed at Epsom running the winner pretty close the horse also ran well in Group 1 compant in the USA last season. The horse has also won on soft ground so that won't be a problem today.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 3:25 Sandown - Pearl Secret - Back Won 3 from 3 and looks a really quality type in the making. This isn't always the easiest 5f track to win at due to problems in running but it's a small enough field and he possesses enough early speed to be able to get a nice early position. Should win 1pt win @ 1/3 Paddy Power BOG

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June Extraterrestrial 2.35pm York 11-1 Bet365 (BOG) 3rd just 18 days ago over a mile on good to firm ground but 2nd here over a mile off 88 last October. Races off 90, has won off 95 and has won on soft ground. Fahey in form, horse could be ready to return with a decent run and is race fit. Tylicki gets on well with the horse and it is drawn 5 which is a plus over this trip.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 5.15 york Ginger ted - will love soft today and thrown in on best form for Richard guest. Placed behind hoof it here last year and this is easier 10/1 betfred 1 pt win

[Chaostheorie]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June ...

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 15.10 York: Gabriel's Lad, 10/1 Bet365, 0.5pt e/w Gabriel's Lad won lto on his first start this year. He is upped in class today but there should be some improvement to come. The ground shouldn't be a problem as he finished second in his first start on soft ground. Kieran Fallon is in the saddle.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June Sand 4.30 - Shamaal Nibras - win at 9/2 bog betvictor Looks a competitive little handicap but I'll go with the Hannon-Hughes combination This horse drops in class after running in a class 2 handicap last time, acts on soft going and should be suited by the drop back to 7 furlongs after leading at the furlong pole last time only to fade and finish 5th Hung right last time and might be suited by rail running on a right hand track if Hughes can get him placed against the rail

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June 5:25 Bath - Blue Zealot Not a lot that I can say about this, but Anthony Honeyball has a record of 4 wins in 10 with first time out runners since 2009. The 5yo hasn't ran since 2010, but Honeyball has a good record with runners that are coming back from a long layoff and this is his only runner of the day. This is his first since the start of the month but he's had 25 winners in the past 100 for a near 50pt profit. Interesting jockey booking in J P Fahy, who isn't known for having rides with the trainer. 15/2 bet365 - win

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June

5:25 Bath - Blue Zealot Not a lot that I can say about this, but Anthony Honeyball has a record of 4 wins in 10 with first time out runners since 2009. The 5yo hasn't ran since 2010, but Honeyball has a good record with runners that are coming back from a long layoff and this is his only runner of the day. This is his first since the start of the month but he's had 25 winners in the past 100 for a near 50pt profit. Interesting jockey booking in J P Fahy, who isn't known for having rides with the trainer. 15/2 bet365 - win

Close but no cigar!

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June WHITEOAK LADY 7.05 Lingfield. 1 point win. Needs to find more like her best, but well drawn this evening and can handle soft ground. The trip isn't a concern and I just hope Cathy Gannon does her homework and gets that good early position on the rail, then she could burn them all off. Decent price and well worth taking a chance on off a mark of 50. 12/1 Boylesports BOG

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June The late ones;

Non-Runner BH!! *Pastures New - Lingfield 9:05* This is an absolutely dire race, and should not take much winning, so i am going to take a chance on a huge priced horse each way. Thi horse has only beat 1 horse home in 2 runs, but does step back down in class from it's last race, and has had a nice long break since, and could well come back fresh and primed for a big run. It is related to 3 winners from the USA and Puerto Rico, so at least there is a winning line in the family. This is Des Donovan's only runner of the day and when Adam Beschizza rides for him on the All-Weather at Lingfield, he i 1 winner from 2 rides producing a profit of +£3.00 to level stakes. I will take a chance at the price, as the favourite has a lot to prove. *0.5 Points e/w @ 100/1 Hills BOG*

7.55 Limerick - One Fine Day - Win 9/2 Boyles Been looking forward to this filly to reappear as she made a big impression lto. That was only her second start but she showed a real turn of foot to win easily. The form of that win has yet to be tested properly but the sixth (who was a long way back) ran a very good race to finish 2nd in a Roscommon maiden last week and the 7th finished 3rd in the same race. One Fine Day will have no problem with conditions and she looks capable of winning of a mark of 83 in this fillies handicap.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June Al Aqabah 8.35 Lingfield. 0.5 points each way. Pretty consistent, although doesn't win too many, and this trip suits much better. Finally the handicapper has relented a touch and so with having the race run to suit he should be more than capable of getting in the mix for the line. 14/1 Bet365 (bog)

[jinxy]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June

Non-Runner BH!! *Pastures New - Lingfield 9:05* This is an absolutely dire race, and should not take much winning, so i am going to take a chance on a huge priced horse each way. Thi horse has only beat 1 horse home in 2 runs, but does step back down in class from it's last race, and has had a nice long break since, and could well come back fresh and primed for a big run. It is related to 3 winners from the USA and Puerto Rico, so at least there is a winning line in the family. This is Des Donovan's only runner of the day and when Adam Beschizza rides for him on the All-Weather at Lingfield, he i 1 winner from 2 rides producing a profit of +£3.00 to level stakes. I will take a chance at the price, as the favourite has a lot to prove. *0.5 Points e/w @ 100/1 Hills BOG*

What a shout at 20/1 a place. Thanks!