Guineas 2000 - 5th May

[mattyrobinson]

What's everyone thinking? I tipped Fencing and Dragon Pulse early, hoping to lay off for a free bet nearer the day. Dragon Pulse has since won it's warm up race but drifted to 100/1 on the exchange. Must be something I'm missing with that one (although it's at 10s with WillHill). Doesn't seem to be much value in Camelot or Most improved so think I'll steer clear of those 2.

[Trotter]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May The French trial the other day, the Dhebel, looked pretty good with the first two, French Fifteen and Abtaal comig well clear with the third, Hermival, finishing fast when the race was over Any of those 3 that come over could be in with a chance - I think maybe the 2nd, Abtaal, could be the best. He looked most in need of a run and wasn't unduly ridden hard If Hermival runs at Newmarket he'll probably be a big price but the extra furlong and uphill finish should suit him and he might be overlooked by UK punters

[Haystacks]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May

Must be something I'm missing with that one (although it's at 10s with WillHill).

Think Hills are taking the mickey with that 10-1 price as all the indications are that Dragon Pulse won't be coming over for the 2000 Guineas. Here's what the trainer had to say on Sunday: "In the normal run of things we'll be back for the Poule d'Essai in four weeks." To most observers Dragon Pulse was a 'lucky' winner on Sunday as Soumillion gave the runner-up Dabirsim a really shocking ride. Both Dragon Pulse and Dabirsim will likely be winning Group 1/Group 2 races this year, but it's debatable whether Dabirsim will prove better as a sprinter than as a miler. Fencing will hopefully be making his seasonal debut in the Greenham on Saturday. Best of luck with your bets.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May im still hot my ante post choice trumpet major and i am hoping he is going to spring a surprise on thursday and beat this new hot pot they have all been backing ......should be a good price so if he wins or goes close in quick time .... then the ante post bet will look amazing (40/1)

[Tull]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May Ive backed Mighty Ambition. Travelled really well on debut and quickend smartly over the final furlong, form from the race working out well. Likely to show even more improvement once tried over middle distances.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May Like you Matty I went for Dragon Pulse - sadly looks like he will be staying in France. Pity (talking through my pocket) as I think he would have been far better suited to Newmarket.

[DLL]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May Most Improved misses the Craven after being found lame and is a doubt for the Guineas. http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/most-improved-misses-craven-stakes/1017859/top/

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May

im still hot my ante post choice trumpet major and i am hoping he is going to spring a surprise on thursday and beat this new hot pot they have all been backing ......should be a good price so if he wins or goes close in quick time .... then the ante post bet will look amazing (40/1)

Great Shout AGAIN! Fella.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May trumpet major is available at 12/1 with ladbrokes and most improved is still 5/1 with most firms ......ive got no doubts trumpet major would have beaten him had he run (he'd have beaten him in the dewhurst had he not got into traffic problems ) .........so thats just plain silly really especially as the latter might not even get to the guineas

[The Saint]

I'll buy some off you at 33s??!! Ha ha!!

[keithbeaky]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May Top Offer to be pulled tomorrow due to the ground. Cant fancy him as much without the run

[keithbeaky]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May

Top Offer to be pulled tomorrow due to the ground. Cant fancy him as much without the run

They really want to run him but if conditions dont improve dramatically overnight then they wont run him on ground that bad. Id want to take 9/4 Camelot personally. Definite runner looking at the market and the others all have question marks.

[The Saint]

FAO Mr Westwood and anyone else considering an interest. Wouldn't alter my opinion one way or the other but hopefully you might get something from it.... Timeform Head of Research and Development, Simon Rowlands, interprets the sectional timings from Newmarket's Craven meeting... The success of Trumpet Major in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket on Thursday divided opinion regarding his chance in the 2000 Thousand Guineas in just over two weeks' time. On the one hand, a winner of a recognised classic trial by 5 lengths conceding weight will understandably garner a high rating on form. On the other, he is likely to leave time enthusiasts a little cold, in terms of both his overall time of 97.44 sec and the sectionals which led to that. Sectionals were more difficult to take in some instances on day two of the Craven Meeting than day one, due to camerawork, but they did point to the Craven being run at an overly-strong pace (it should be noted that the wind was against the runners on day one and with them on day two). Trumpet Major was under pressure in fifth at halfway but swept through to win in style. However, sectionals late in the race showed the runners (even the winner) running slower than par and slower than most of the races elsewhere on the card. Whether or not Trumpet Major is good enough to win a Guineas remains to be seen but the unmistakeable impression was that he may need a similarly strong pace and ease in the ground to reproduce this effort at a mile. The resulting information can be viewed in a number of ways. Below you have the sectionals for the leader 3f out and the leader (i.e. winner) at the line, which is useful for gauging the pace of the race. DAY ONE (Wednesday) Race 1: 37.2 sec (102.6% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side) Race 2: 35.9 sec (103.2% finishing speed: true pace) Race 3: 36.0 sec (103.0% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side) Race 4: 36.3 sec (103.9% finishing speed: steady pace) Race 5: 36.9 sec (101.7% finishing speed: pace close to par) Race 6: 36.1 sec (107.7% finishing speed: slow pace) Race 7: 38.2 sec (101.7% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side) Race 8: 36.7 sec (100.8% finishing speed: pace slightly quicker than par) Next are the sectionals for the winners themselves, engineered from their margins back from the leader at the 3f pole, and what that translates to as a sectional time when married up with the overall race time. COGITO: 37.0 sec (103.2%) 73 sectional time BAILEYS JUBILEE: 35.8 sec (103.4%) 92 sectional time VALBCHEK: 35.5 sec (104.4%) 103 sectional time TELWAAR: 35.1 sec (107.5%) 110 sectional time ESENTEPE: 36.8 sec (102.0%) 92 sectional time STIPULATE: 35.6 sec (109.2%) 110 sectional time MODEL PUPIL: 37.3 sec (104.1%) 99 sectional time ES QUE LOVE: 36.7 sec (100.8%) 97 sectional time Telwaar and Stipulate did much better - in time terms - than the result, while Model Pupil did a bit better than what was already a pretty good time. DAY TWO (Thursday) (final 3f unless identified as 2f thus*) Race 1: 34.7 sec (103.8% finishing speed: true pace) Race 2: 35.0 sec (106.4% finishing speed: slowly run) Race 3: 37.2 sec (99.7% finishing speed: true pace) Race 4: 23.1 sec* (103.7% finishing speed: steady pace) Race 5: 25.4 sec* (95.9% finishing speed: overly strong pace) Race 6: 36.8 sec (100.2% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side) Race 7: 25.2 sec* (97.3% finishing speed: strong pace) Race 8: 36.0 sec (105.3% finishing speed: slowly run) TASSEL: 34.6 sec (104.1%) 85 sectional time MARINER'S CROSS: 34.9 sec (106.7%) 99 sectional time ROUGEMONT: 37.0 sec (100.2%) 108 sectional time MAYSON: 22.9 sec* (104.6%) 109 sectional time TRUMPET MAJOR: 25.2 sec* (96.7%) 114 sectional time QUESTIONING: 36.3 sec (101.6%) 97 sectional time PERFECT STEP: 25.0 sec (98.0%) 80 sectional time MAIN SEQUENCE: 35.6 sec (106.5%) 106 sectional time The biggest mark-ups came for the Wood Ditton winner Mariner's Cross and the concluding handicap winner Main Sequence, neither of whom might have achieved much on the face of it but both of whom did so in the manner of useful performers.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May

FAO Mr Westwood and anyone else considering an interest. Wouldn't alter my opinion one way or the other but hopefully you might get something from it.... Timeform Head of Research and Development, Simon Rowlands, interprets the sectional timings from Newmarket's Craven meeting... The success of Trumpet Major in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket on Thursday divided opinion regarding his chance in the 2000 Thousand Guineas in just over two weeks' time. On the one hand, a winner of a recognised classic trial by 5 lengths conceding weight will understandably garner a high rating on form. On the other, he is likely to leave time enthusiasts a little cold, in terms of both his overall time of 97.44 sec and the sectionals which led to that. Sectionals were more difficult to take in some instances on day two of the Craven Meeting than day one, due to camerawork, but they did point to the Craven being run at an overly-strong pace (it should be noted that the wind was against the runners on day one and with them on day two). Trumpet Major was under pressure in fifth at halfway but swept through to win in style. However, sectionals late in the race showed the runners (even the winner) running slower than par and slower than most of the races elsewhere on the card. Whether or not Trumpet Major is good enough to win a Guineas remains to be seen but the unmistakeable impression was that he may need a similarly strong pace and ease in the ground to reproduce this effort at a mile. The resulting information can be viewed in a number of ways. Below you have the sectionals for the leader 3f out and the leader (i.e. winner) at the line, which is useful for gauging the pace of the race. DAY ONE (Wednesday) Race 1: 37.2 sec (102.6% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side) Race 2: 35.9 sec (103.2% finishing speed: true pace) Race 3: 36.0 sec (103.0% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side) Race 4: 36.3 sec (103.9% finishing speed: steady pace) Race 5: 36.9 sec (101.7% finishing speed: pace close to par) Race 6: 36.1 sec (107.7% finishing speed: slow pace) Race 7: 38.2 sec (101.7% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side) Race 8: 36.7 sec (100.8% finishing speed: pace slightly quicker than par) Next are the sectionals for the winners themselves, engineered from their margins back from the leader at the 3f pole, and what that translates to as a sectional time when married up with the overall race time. COGITO: 37.0 sec (103.2%) 73 sectional time BAILEYS JUBILEE: 35.8 sec (103.4%) 92 sectional time VALBCHEK: 35.5 sec (104.4%) 103 sectional time TELWAAR: 35.1 sec (107.5%) 110 sectional time ESENTEPE: 36.8 sec (102.0%) 92 sectional time STIPULATE: 35.6 sec (109.2%) 110 sectional time MODEL PUPIL: 37.3 sec (104.1%) 99 sectional time ES QUE LOVE: 36.7 sec (100.8%) 97 sectional time Telwaar and Stipulate did much better - in time terms - than the result, while Model Pupil did a bit better than what was already a pretty good time. DAY TWO (Thursday) (final 3f unless identified as 2f thus*) Race 1: 34.7 sec (103.8% finishing speed: true pace) Race 2: 35.0 sec (106.4% finishing speed: slowly run) Race 3: 37.2 sec (99.7% finishing speed: true pace) Race 4: 23.1 sec* (103.7% finishing speed: steady pace) Race 5: 25.4 sec* (95.9% finishing speed: overly strong pace) Race 6: 36.8 sec (100.2% finishing speed: pace bit on steady side) Race 7: 25.2 sec* (97.3% finishing speed: strong pace) Race 8: 36.0 sec (105.3% finishing speed: slowly run) TASSEL: 34.6 sec (104.1%) 85 sectional time MARINER'S CROSS: 34.9 sec (106.7%) 99 sectional time ROUGEMONT: 37.0 sec (100.2%) 108 sectional time MAYSON: 22.9 sec* (104.6%) 109 sectional time TRUMPET MAJOR: 25.2 sec* (96.7%) 114 sectional time QUESTIONING: 36.3 sec (101.6%) 97 sectional time PERFECT STEP: 25.0 sec (98.0%) 80 sectional time MAIN SEQUENCE: 35.6 sec (106.5%) 106 sectional time The biggest mark-ups came for the Wood Ditton winner Mariner's Cross and the concluding handicap winner Main Sequence, neither of whom might have achieved much on the face of it but both of whom did so in the manner of useful performers.

always fascinated by extra info ...........personally im not a huge fan of sectionals as they can tell you if a horse can accelerate at a given point but can bias the result to a certain patch of the race whereas im just interested in a to b .i sometimes sit down and try and fathom out timeforms speed ratings as the number of times ive speed rated a race and they havent even put my top rated in the top 3 only for my top rated to win ....ive totally lost count .......i have compared id say 50 such races so im wondering what they actually do to their ratings to skew them so much .....dont know if they apply something else -but many do match more or less.lets assume the ground was good/sft and that would have an average going figure of 1.6 secs over 1mile meaning he ran around 0.3 outside the standard easily .........my spreadsheet has estimated the going at 0.19 per furlong which is very close to what id expect so the ratings hold up saying if it had been run on good ground he could have run 0.3 outside and possibly better equating to a 96 and thats good enough to win a guineas so i dont see what problems they have trying to work it out .......sometimes i think they overthink it .........the biggest risk comes from him running such a fast time and 2 weeks being long enough for him to recover ........thats a different matter :unsure time will tell i suppose ...(no pun intended ....lol)......biggest factor for me is he has proven he can do it at newmarket and within the last 2 weeks so thats a huge advantage ......and hannon deserves another guineas winner .....its his turn i reckon and id really like him to beat the o brien team as its getting a bit tiresome

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May Nephrite might be worth a close watch this Sunday ''22nd'' some firms are 20/1 but a few only go 8/1 http://horses.sportinglife.com/Future_Engagements/0,12646,h%5E592115,00.html

[Haystacks]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May Ouch. Greenham looked even worse than Craven as a Guineas trial. Not quite like last year when Frankel and Native Khan won those two races. Hard to imagine that any of the runners in the Greenham/Craven will be winning Group 1 races over a mile this summer. With Most Improved, Top Offer and Fencing all missing their intended trials, and the Craven/Greenham races looking woefully short of real quality, the British Guineas challenge has withered badly this week. PS Gosden on why Fencing missed Craven/Greenham: "He did a very nice piece of work but a shoe came back and the clip went into his foot, so he bled. He's fit, but you can't run him and I didn't declare him for the Greenham. He'll be back and can go straight for the Guineas as there's nothing else left after the Greenham. I'd have no problem going straight for the Guineas with a filly, I don't like doing it as much with a colt."

[robertob]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May

Nephrite might be worth a close watch this Sunday ''22nd'' some firms are 20/1 but a few only go 8/1 http://horses.sportinglife.com/Future_Engagements/0,12646,h^592115,00.html

Looking forward to see him tomorrow at the Curragh. Will be on side myself. He's a horse I have high on my list anyway, though I think he's not a miler but a top class colt over 7 furlongs. Of course you never know in advance but I feel he won't stay 1m. Tomorrows race is over 7f however and as long as he's fit he'll win it.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May I still can't work out why Trumpet Major is such a big price. He looked a totally different horse to what we saw as a 2yo, and he thrashed the horse the market suggested was ready to win. 12s is still huge.

[keithbeaky]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May Camelot will probably go off 5/4 so the others will be bigger if anything

[BKI Punter]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May Not a chance TM starts 12 or bigger if he goes. 8s max. The Dewhurst was a muddling race and the form needs to be discarded.

[Mr.Wilson]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May I'm on Nephrite large ante post but I have to say that tomorrow's entry does come as a disappointment because it looks like he's Irish 2000 Guineas bound. Then again, I'm also on Bronterre large so why not double up the pain! clearly I've misread something last year and it's going to be a harsh part of ante post betting. Looking forward to Nephrite tomorrow, will probably try and hammer the price if I can in the morning to get back what's lost Ante Post The horse I thought was a serious serious contender to win the 2000 Guineas, has everything you'd want but with Ballydoyle forced to run in the 1000 Guineas to prove Camelot's speed as a potential sire that leaves Nephrite likely to be dropped down the pecking order which in itself is a bad sign. Never mind, here's hoping for a 10l victory tomorrow! if he's not impressive, he's not running..

[richard-westwood]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May reason nephrite lost ........going into the race had only done 74+on the clock against requistions 87 ......was never an odds on shot

[richard-westwood]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May

Camelot will probably go off 5/4 so the others will be bigger if anything

camelot is going to take an awful lot of beating ......he ran a 96 as a 2yr old on the clock (on the bridle !!!) and that is scarily fast .......if he has trained on and strengthened up as you would expect from an o brien horse then the race is over because no one will catch him .........trouble is we wont know until he turns up now

[Mr.Wilson]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May

reason nephrite lost ........going into the race had only done 74+on the clock against requistions 87 ......was never an odds on shot

That simple eh? ;)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May

That simple eh? ;)

all im saying is if i had looked at that race ....id had lumped on requisition on 7/2 (87) as opposed to nephrite at 4/9 (74+) ......no contest

[Edberg]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May So Richard you think that the opinion of a lot of people, most of them very close to the horse for example, or the one of trainer who gave his best horse to his son (first jockey of the stable atm), of the owners who have always had this horse in very high regard, of the punters who have been backing him not just for this race but for the Guineas since last autumn, journalists, analysts, tipsters and so on, all these were so wrong? Nephrite is an impressive-looking horse with a fantastic pedigree (costed 230,000gns as a foal and among his brothers you can find the former international sprinter superstar Cape Of Good Hope who won Group 1s both in Hong Kong, Australia and England) and he couldn't have been more impressive in both his two outs at 2 destroying a field of 24 runners over 6f at Curragh in September (on soft/heavy ground) looking since then a straightforward colt with a bright future and he confirmed that impression winning a Group 3 (30 Oct 2011) at Leopardstown (yielding ground) over 7f with Born To Sea (who had also been very impressive on his winning debut and has a fantastic pedigree being the half brother to Sea The Stars and Galileo among the others) well beaten in second. Joseph gave him a very confident ride that day (as today) as he travelled smoothly throughout and his turn of foot inside the final furlong was eyecatching to say the least. As far as concerned the time he recorded the best time over 7f (three races over that distance) that day at Leopardstown and he did it with the minimum of fuss and on his debut he had recorded almost the same time of Maarek (who won another sprint handicap off an 8lb higher mark (97) yesterday) carrying 1lb less and he did it once again in impressive style (eased down) and even if that day the rain turned the ground in heavy in the following races the first two were the best performances clockwise (and later on we had a Group 3 for 2yo fillies and a Group 2 over 1m for 2yo on that card). Sticking with RP Nephrite achieved a TS of 88 on his debut and a RPR of 110 on his second start. Requisition is another colt with an impressive pedigree (costed 550,000gns) but didn't look a worldbeater for sure on his first two starts (both times well beaten and was just a 14/1 shot on his debut). The son of Invicible Spirit clocked a TS of 87 on his third and last start (by far his best performance before today) when he won his first race at Galway over 1m1/2f (29 Aug 2011) on good ground and his RPR was just 89 and the OR just 94 as he beat almost nothing since Willie Mullins-trained Fatcatinthehat (second 3/4L behind him that day) didn't achieve anything special (thrice third) in his next four starts (that race was his debut) and is rated 86 at the moment while the Kevin Prendergast-trained Freedom Reigns (favourite of that race at Galway where he finished 3rd) has been terrible in his next two starts (rated 73 on the flat atm) and the same goes for the other runners. So Requisition had beaten more or less nothing (compared to Nephrite), had surely recorded a good time (but TS gave him 87 compared to the 88 of Nephrite on his debut), was unproven on this easier ground, was rated just 94 before today and was surely the second string of the team according to many notes (jockey-booking for example). No way you can say (before the race) Requisition stood a better chance than Nephrite even it the favourite was probably too short to be considered worth a bet with all the doubts that have always to be a big concern with any 3yo first time out. The point is that Nephrite comes from a speedy family and probably 1m is gonna be too much for him after what we've seen today and before the race Requisition was heavily backed (from 6s to 3s) and that probably means something (I was not there ofc) maybe he had pleased in his last works, during the parade-ring or something else. Anyway I wouldn't write Nephrite off yet as the colt was given a very tender ride today and this was surely not his "race to win" as his main target has to be something else later in the season (starting from the Guineas) and many of O'Brien's horses have been not sparkling at all (during this first month of the season) to say the least (David Livingston to name one of his many below-par 3yos who ran during these first few weeks of the turf season). This is just my opinion of course ;)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May i look at every horse from a value point of view ........makes no difference to me if the horse cost a million quid or 5000 ......nephrites race was extremely weak in comparison to most group 3 and the form looked a bit suspect to begin with ,requisitions wasnt that much better but at least his was a bit more competitive hence his better rating ......the rating today was 77 so thats 77 and 74 for nephrite and 87 and 81 for requisition ......pretty consistent so far ....but if id paid that much money id probably be crying as there are a.w horses running quicker than that ......plain fact .......maybe they are capable of better ....probably yes given cost/pedigree ....but it certainly doesnt look good

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May

I'm on Nephrite large ante post but I have to say that tomorrow's entry does come as a disappointment because it looks like he's Irish 2000 Guineas bound. Then again, I'm also on Bronterre large so why not double up the pain! clearly I've misread something last year and it's going to be a harsh part of ante post betting. Looking forward to Nephrite tomorrow, will probably try and hammer the price if I can in the morning to get back what's lost Ante Post The horse I thought was a serious serious contender to win the 2000 Guineas, has everything you'd want but with Ballydoyle forced to run in the 1000 Guineas to prove Camelot's speed as a potential sire that leaves Nephrite likely to be dropped down the pecking order which in itself is a bad sign. Never mind, here's hoping for a 10l victory tomorrow! if he's not impressive, he's not running..

I hope that was not a sore one fella..

[Mr.Wilson]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May

So Richard you think that the opinion of a lot of people, most of them very close to the horse for example, or the one of trainer who gave his best horse to his son (first jockey of the stable atm), of the owners who have always had this horse in very high regard, of the punters who have been backing him not just for this race but for the Guineas since last autumn, journalists, analysts, tipsters and so on, all these were so wrong? Nephrite is an impressive-looking horse with a fantastic pedigree (costed 230,000gns as a foal and among his brothers you can find the former international sprinter superstar Cape Of Good Hope who won Group 1s both in Hong Kong, Australia and England) and he couldn't have been more impressive in both his two outs at 2 destroying a field of 24 runners over 6f at Curragh in September (on soft/heavy ground) looking since then a straightforward colt with a bright future and he confirmed that impression winning a Group 3 (30 Oct 2011) at Leopardstown (yielding ground) over 7f with Born To Sea (who had also been very impressive on his winning debut and has a fantastic pedigree being the half brother to Sea The Stars and Galileo among the others) well beaten in second. Joseph gave him a very confident ride that day (as today) as he travelled smoothly throughout and his turn of foot inside the final furlong was eyecatching to say the least. As far as concerned the time he recorded the best time over 7f (three races over that distance) that day at Leopardstown and he did it with the minimum of fuss and on his debut he had recorded almost the same time of Maarek (who won another sprint handicap off an 8lb higher mark (97) yesterday) carrying 1lb less and he did it once again in impressive style (eased down) and even if that day the rain turned the ground in heavy in the following races the first two were the best performances clockwise (and later on we had a Group 3 for 2yo fillies and a Group 2 over 1m for 2yo on that card). Sticking with RP Nephrite achieved a TS of 88 on his debut and a RPR of 110 on his second start.

Very good post Edberg, Couldn't have put it better myself although I do still think Nephrite has a Group race in his belt this season I have my doubts over whether it's going to be the 2000 Guineas. I've always thought they risked the horse or at least got away with him running on softer ground as a 2 year old and probably knew today that the ground had gone against him quite early on in the day which prompted support for his stablemate and with the horse needing a run having been withdrawn last week they couldn't repeat proceedings again and was a matter of just running him without beating him up. There was a little something to take from the way he traveled throughout the race but when Joseph gave him a squeeze he found nothing which was disappointing but I expect better from him on faster ground and hope Aidan doesn't revert to sprinting just yet as it's worth finding out if he stays a mile first.

[Aidymac]

Re: Guineas 2000 - 5th May The O Brien second-string that won saw a lot of money come for it. If Nephrite was really fancied today, the money would not have come for the winner, O Brien knew Nephrite wouldn't be winning today, maybe they made sure it didn't for the better price, who knows? Richard, all your bets come from speed ratings, so you can't really have a fair debate on the matter, as all you do is refer it back to the clock. Nephrite never an odds-on shot, gimme a break!!Hacked up at the Curragh by 4 lengths in a 24 runner field on it's maiden, then went to Leopardstown and comfortably beat Born To Sea in a Group 3. Requisition won an average maiden in Galway by 3/4 of a length and your telling me that looking at the form, the hype and the better races Nephrite ran in, that it wasn't an odds-on shot?