Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

[mowgli77]

Let's get this up and running for the flat season. I haven't even had a look at the Lincoln yet and it isn't really my type of race anyway. I was planning on going but it falls on 31/3/12 and I'm down in Plymouth for the footy that day. What do we fancy for the classics this year? Camelot looked the real deal at Doncaster and won with authority and ease. Will Frankel still be unbeaten at the end of the season and will it get the 10f trip if it goes for the Juddmonte, I'd say yes. I'd expect it to go off at odds on every race. Get your ante post bets and discussion in here and see if we can find any outstanding value bets in advance. :ok

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I have already backed 3 ante post. Regal Realm for the 1000 Guineas, who looks crap now, in fact most aren't betting with her now, but at one point her maiden win was amazing beating Gamilati and subsquent Royal Ascot winner Samitar, she then lost out narrowly to Angels Will Fall who went off favourite for the Lowther Stakes, but she has turned out to not be good enough unless she trains on amazingly well! Not even sure she is with Noseda? I have also backed Harbour Watch and Born To Sea for the 2,000. Harbour Watch thank god seems to be back on track for the race after a setback. He looked very nice and his Richmond win was excellent, with a very good time. He easily beat Casper Netscher who went on to win 2 Group 2 races after and not too far off in better company. He could make into a top miler. Born to Sea, the last son of the amazing Urban Sea, couldn't have been more impressive easily winning a Listed contest FTO at the Curragh. He was found lame after his next second but still could be a very good 3 year old. I am really looking forward to seeing what he can do, and hope for Urban Sea he turns out to be top class. For me Camelot is one for the Derby, not the 2000. Betfred said they laid a 100k bet on him today for the Guineas but I am not sure he will line up. I was against him at the price massively for the RP Trophy but he couldn't have been more impressive and the reports from Ballydoyle are all very good. At 3/1 though for the 2000 he is a bit of a silly price imo I have my eye on one in the Lincoln too but not looked in great depth yet.

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Just seen Harbour Watch is pretty weak on Betfair although there haven't been any really positive reports for a while

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Only flat ante-post bet I've had this year is Top Offer in the Derby at 25/1. Loved his maiden. Just looking forward to seeing Frankel really though.

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 een hammered over the weekend for the Guineas

[robertob]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Nice thread mowgli. I'm really looking forward to the start of the new flat season. The Irish one starts on Sunday btw... Made this picture of Born To Sea at the Curragh - hope he wins the 2.000 Guineas I've backed The Fugue for the Epsom Oaks (33/1). I thought she won very impressively at her only start to date at Newmarket. She didn't beat much but the way she did it was breathtaking as she had a bad start but still won hands and heels ridden and pulled clear with the second placed horse of the rest of the field. Well, you never know what happens over the winter but I think she can progress over distance and I'm keen to see her back at the track. Have backed Born To Sea (13/1) & Most Improved (14/1) for the 2.000 Guineas. BTS on good ground will be probably very hard to beat if he's right for the race (was found lame after his defeat to Nephrite at Leopardstown). I saw him live at the the Curragh and Leopardstown an think he has loads of ability over a mile. I think he's easy to back for the Guineas as that race is the target if you can believe in John Oxx. Most Improved is another really interesting contender for the Guineas imo. He improved with every run and he finished very well in the Dewhurst, despite the lack of experience. He will clearly relish the step up to 1m (and probably beyond). For the Irish 1.000 Guineas I do fancy Dermot Weld's Yellow Rosebud. She might be limited to 7f but there is a fair chance that she's stays one mile (failed last year at first attempt over that distance). Her sire Jeremy was only narrowly denied to win the Queen Anne. Didn't find prices for the Irish 1.000 Guineas yet but asked Paddy Power to give me a price. Will see... Other horses I'm interested in are Wading, Zumbi, Perennial Tales Of Grimm, Reckoning, Nephrite and Encke.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Possibly the worst ever ante-post bet on Wise Venture for the 2000 Guineas made after he won his first two races. Alan Jarvis would have a better chance if he ran it himself. Had a dabble on Light From Mars for the Lincoln after his recent run at Wolverhampton. Can't remember if I got 33s or 40s but think it was the latter. Ran a good race there after a spell in the wilderness after winning at Newbury last year (and running well in the Spring Mile). Race wasn't really run to suit but he travelled well and kept on without threatening. Isn't the type to come thundering home up the Wolves straight. If he gets good/quick ground, he should run his race back down to a good mark. Won twice off this mark or higher, including that Newbury win off 97 (now runs off 94). Not had a really big look at the classics to be honest. I can usually gauge how good jump horses will be better than those on the flat. Will no doubt study a bit more when I can smell the Lincoln and get the flat back into my blood.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Not much of an Anti Post bet but i do think Richard Hannon's runner in this weekends winter derby is a cracking bet at 10/1 Corals. Cai Shen. E/W - Play safe now. http://horses.sportinglife.com/Horse_Profile/0,12491,522128,00.html http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/09/07/manual_105852.html

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 time for me to put some ante post bets on ,leaving it late this year so to make sure i know whos running and who isnt winter derby premio loco 93 junoob 85 circumvent 85 soorah 85 im not a huge fan of premio loco in this as he has to give away weight all round and does not look guarnteed to even like 10f (looks better at 1mile) ,soorah comes here on the back of a poor run so for me this looks between junoob (won the trial easily ) and circumvent (trainer gets them ready for touch) ....of the 2 i personally like circumvent who looks the ideal type for this and 10/1 price is outstanding value but junoob won the trial in great fashion and could come on from that making him extremely hard to beat if doing so junoob 2pts win 6/1 bet365 circumvent 2pts win 10/1 bet365 both are value at the prices so may as well have both run for me

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 lincoln hcap : until i know the final declarations this race all hinges on one horse for me at the moment and that is PRIMAEVAL 12/1 GENERALLY .has been primed ready on the a.w and recorded an amazing 106!! over 7f recently (fast ground) ,has done nothing but improve ....will have a marked fitness advantage over many of the lincoln runners and to top that is currently set to carry 8-6 !!!!! i like to have a go in the big races so ive had 10pts e.w at 12/1 .....may have a saver once final declarations /draw are known but very happy with that bet.....see if i can get the flat season off with a bang !!!!

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 2000 guineas .........its difficult to find a value bet in this as the o brien team have a strong hand in camelot and power and they will no douubt prove nigh on hard to beat (especially the former ) but i always try have a speculative bet on a horse that has fallen through the net (run a nice speed rating in defeat ,.....and wasnt noticed) and this year it looks as though that horse is TRUMPET MAJOR 40/1 STAN JAMES . he wants the ground to be good really (soft would be disastrous) but this horse was just getting better and better last year when he had terrible luck in his last race having to be switched around before coming with a late charge again once he got clear to just go down by a short distance in about 4th ..........the bookies put the winner in around 12/1 and he was forgotten at 40/1 !!!!!!! r hannon trained and i know he thinks a lot of this horse ....so he may not even go for the guineas but if he is as good as i think he is then hannon will have no choice but to send him there and then we'll have a race on our hands 10pts e.w trumpet major 40/1 stan james 2000 guineas ante post

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Born to Sea for the Derby, at 33/1 VC a couple of weeks before his first run. Not sure how I feel about that now. Not going to lie, only did it out of hope he could even come close to STS.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Im on Perennial for the Derby. He produced a quick time FTO where he beat some decent horses and I would be surprised if there wasnt a lot more to come.

[fintron]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I am gonna try give up the ante-post lark this flat season. Became actively involved in Cheltenham ante-post for the first time this year and found that even though I took some great ante-post prices, they were counteracted by those getting injured and not making it to their races. I really wanna get involved for the Lincoln but am trying to resist parting with cash until the decs are in - the draw is important in these large fields and cannot be factored into ante post prices whereas over the jumps theres no stalls so perhaps its one less variable to worry about. Two I am looking forward to seeing are Wizz Kid in the Group sprints and Fox Hunt in the Cup races. Wizz Kid ideally wants a bit of juice in the ground but is a real speed ball. Fox Hunt did me several favours last year for Johnston and, now with Godolphin, has progressed again over in Dubai. He ran an absolute blinder in the Melbourne Cup and I can see him winning something like the Yorkshire Cup this year.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Possibly the worst ever ante-post bet on Wise Venture for the 2000 Guineas made after he won his first two races. Alan Jarvis would have a better chance if he ran it himself. Had a dabble on Light From Mars for the Lincoln after his recent run at Wolverhampton. Can't remember if I got 33s or 40s but think it was the latter. Ran a good race there after a spell in the wilderness after winning at Newbury last year (and running well in the Spring Mile). Race wasn't really run to suit but he travelled well and kept on without threatening. Isn't the type to come thundering home up the Wolves straight. If he gets good/quick ground, he should run his race back down to a good mark. Won twice off this mark or higher, including that Newbury win off 97 (now runs off 94). Not had a really big look at the classics to be honest. I can usually gauge how good jump horses will be better than those on the flat. Will no doubt study a bit more when I can smell the Lincoln and get the flat back into my blood.

Yeah i really fancy that one aswell BTR. Still available at 40's. I wonder who will be on it? Would be good if Barzalona was riding at the Donny meet and was booked for it

[robertob]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Born to Sea for the Derby' date=' at 33/1 VC a couple of weeks before his first run. Not sure how I feel about that now. Not going to lie, only did it out of hope he could even come close to STS.[/quote'] Don't think he will stay the Derby distance and therefore don't think he will run in the Derby. A mile looks to be perfectly fine but also the limit for Born To Sea in my mind.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I know zilch about flat racing, don't know where to start to be honest.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

I am gonna try give up the ante-post lark this flat season. Became actively involved in Cheltenham ante-post for the first time this year and found that even though I took some great ante-post prices, they were counteracted by those getting injured and not making it to their races. I really wanna get involved for the Lincoln but am trying to resist parting with cash until the decs are in - the draw is important in these large fields and cannot be factored into ante post prices whereas over the jumps theres no stalls so perhaps its one less variable to worry about. Two I am looking forward to seeing are Wizz Kid in the Group sprints and Fox Hunt in the Cup races. Wizz Kid ideally wants a bit of juice in the ground but is a real speed ball. Fox Hunt did me several favours last year for Johnston and, now with Godolphin, has progressed again over in Dubai. He ran an absolute blinder in the Melbourne Cup and I can see him winning something like the Yorkshire Cup this year.

yeah ....i know where your coming from fin .......ive been kicked a few times with non runners and injurys but you have to balance that with knowing your 33/1 horse going off at 12/1 on the day and theres no feeling like that especially when you know its got a good chance .the lincoln is a hard one especially ....im with you in the fact that the draw can floor you from the start (a 12/1 shot can become a 33/1 shot on draw alone in the lincoln ) but it also works vice versa so its a bit of a lottery (i look at it like a lottery draw where you can manipulate the balls a little ....lol) .its a difficult one that especially when you lose 20 pts without even a run !!!!:puke

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 well won some stake money for the guineas so going to have 20pts on camelot at 5/2 to win the 2000 guineas ......price short but speed rating was 10pts ahead of all other runners in the race so if he comes on cant see anything beating it ..........and already taken the 2nd rated horse also trumpet major 40/1 e.w ....who i think would probably have won his race with better luck and is only 10pts off camelot (good pedigree also ) so set now for the 2000 camelot 20pts win 5/2 (returns 70) trumpet major 10pts place 10/1 (returns 110) trumpet major 10pts win 40/1 (returns 410) +110pt place =520 pts!! and potentially win on camelot and trumpet placed would pay 180 points .....bring it on !!!!

[robertob]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Guess this is very interesting (and worrying) for everyone who was keen in Harbour Watch's Guineas chance:

Guineas hope Harbour Watch suffers setback HARBOUR WATCH, a general 10-1 chance for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas on May 5, has suffered a setback and faces a race against time to be fit for Newmarket. The Richard Hannon-trained colt missed the end of the last season with a leg injury and connections said on Thursday that his latest setback will rule him out of running in a Classic trial. Assistant trainer Richard Hannon junior said: "Due to the setback he'll not be able to run in a trial. "Our plan at this stage remains to aim for the 2,000 Guineas but time is tight and he is not a certain runner by any means. We'll do our best to get him there." Harbour Watch, who remains unbeaten in three starts, won the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood in July.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/richard-hannon-newmarket-newmarket-guineas-guineas-hope-harbour-watch-suffers-setback/1004488/top/

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Guess this is very interesting (and worrying) for everyone who was keen in Harbour Watch's Guineas chance: http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/richard-hannon-newmarket-newmarket-guineas-guineas-hope-harbour-watch-suffers-setback/1004488/top/

hopefully thats boosted my horses chance of running !!!!! (trumpet major) as i wasnt sure he'd run both !! |(could be fate ....)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 apparently camelot will work after racing sunday and that will give people and watchers a glimpse of how hes done after the winter .....aiden o brien has said that he is as good or better than any horse hes had at this stage of his career and a good show sunday in work could see his price drop so if your thinking of backing him the 5/2 3-1 might be gone by monday

[robertob]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I will be at the Curragh on Sunday and it will be interesting to see how Camelot works.Though I'm not tempted to back him for the current price anyway.

[keithbeaky]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Only flat ante-post bet I've had this year is Top Offer in the Derby at 25/1. Loved his maiden. Just looking forward to seeing Frankel really though.

Geenham then 2000

[switzerland]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Only ante-post bets I've had are Akeed Mofeed and Imperial Monarch both 25/1 for the Derby. Very small interest bets as I think both are smart colts. Akeed Mofeed disappointed a bit in the Beresford but I think the ground was much too soft. Imperial Monarch was just visually very impressive winning on his only start at the Curragh. By Galileo out of a Slip Anchor mare he should really be suited by the Derby trip. He's probably not top of the Ballydoyle pecking order at this stage but this often changes as these colts mature with racing.

[trips]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Only one flat bet up to now, 1000 guineas. Maybe a bit short considering she hasn't had a run this season. Gamilati has looked very impressive this season.has good course form ,not sure if Detori will ride but still doesn't put me off at 16/1

[Stevet1859]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Thought I'd have a look at the 2000 Guineas....some interesting comments and bets already, I wonder if Dragon Pulse has slipped under the radar a touch. More exposed but sets a pretty decent standard - very fair price - like the trainer. 2000 Guineas: Dragon Pulse 2pts e/w 33/1 Stan James (1/4 123) Dragon Pulse seems a big price for a horse whose form ties in with several of those much nearer the head of the market. Last season Dragon Pulse beat Parish Hall in the Futurity Stakes in August and then only just failed to pull back Power in the National Stakes. That is some of the best two year old form around. Dragon Pulse has now joined Mikel Delzangles who is a trainer very much on the up. As well as winning the 2010 renewal of this race with Makfi, he won the latest running of the Melbourne Cup with Dunaden who followed that up with the Hong Kong Vase. It won't be an easy task to improve a horse from Jessica Harrington, however Dunaden progressed after he switched. Chances are that Dragon Pulse will start off in the Prix Djebel this season like Makfi, and if he runs well there he is likely to shorten up. Dragon Pulse would be vulnerable to a dark horse improving past him, (although he was at decent standard last season) and Camelot may be far too good, however Dragon Pulse's chance does seem underestimated at the moment.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Thought I'd have a look at the 2000 Guineas....some interesting comments and bets already, I wonder if Dragon Pulse has slipped under the radar a touch. More exposed but sets a pretty decent standard - very fair price - like the trainer. 2000 Guineas: Dragon Pulse 2pts e/w 33/1 Stan James (1/4 123) Dragon Pulse seems a big price for a horse whose form ties in with several of those much nearer the head of the market. Last season Dragon Pulse beat Parish Hall in the Futurity Stakes in August and then only just failed to pull back Power in the National Stakes. That is some of the best two year old form around. Dragon Pulse has now joined Mikel Delzangles who is a trainer very much on the up. As well as winning the 2010 renewal of this race with Makfi, he won the latest running of the Melbourne Cup with Dunaden who followed that up with the Hong Kong Vase. It won't be an easy task to improve a horse from Jessica Harrington, however Dunaden progressed after he switched. Chances are that Dragon Pulse will start off in the Prix Djebel this season like Makfi, and if he runs well there he is likely to shorten up. Dragon Pulse would be vulnerable to a dark horse improving past him, (although he was at decent standard last season) and Camelot may be far too good, however Dragon Pulse's chance does seem underestimated at the moment.

Hmmm..... just seen that Dragon Pulse is not in the Prix Djebel..... so much for that !!

[Stevet1859]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 2000 Guineas: Nephrite 1pt e/w 12/1 Paddy Power (1/4 123) Nephrite put up two very creditable performances last year. He did not see a racecourse until late September before running out a four length winner at the Curragh. Nephrite then beat Born To Sea at Leopardstown. After the race it transpired not all was well with the second, however Nephrite did it in good style and should progress again this season. May be a little better suited to a mile than some at the head of the market that are likely to line up for the Derby too.

[DLL]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 And so it begins: [h=1]O'Brien: Camelot not 'definite' for Guineas[/h] BY JESSICA LAMB7:28PM 25 MAR 2012 AIDAN O'BRIEN on Sunday warned that it would be "wrong" to say that 5-2 favourite Camelot was "likely" for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas after he was one of 44 Ballydoyle horses to work after racing at the Curragh. Camelot, ridden by the trainer's son Joseph, quickened up well up the stands' rail at the end of aseven and a half furlong gallop to finish second in the first bunch of O'Brien's workers, which also included Ascot Gold Cup favourite Fame And Glory.O'Brien did not rule out the 2,000 Guineas, but did not confirm that it was Camelot's target either. He said: "It would be wrong to say that he is likely [to run in the 2,000 Guineas]. Obviously he's a possible, but not definite." O'Brien also revealed Power, no bigger than 12-1 for the 2,000 Guineas, suffered an interruption to his Classic season preparation around three months ago. Power was ridden by Ryan Moore in the fourth and final group, which included new recruit Excelebration ridden by Joseph, and was kept towards the rear throughout the gallop. O'Brien explained: "He missed a bit of time after Christmas, nothing major, so he was just following up and wasn't asked anything."