Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

[robertob]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Well, I don't think it has much significance what AOB says at this stage. Well all know you often can't take AOB's statements for real. Camelot looked very well yesterday, and finished the work well enough, cantering home in first or second position. But his group didn't work seriously, means, other groups and horses had a real test, his group not. So I'm not sure if he starts in the Guineas anyway as AOB has with Power and Nephrite already two strong hands in the race.

[trips]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Only one flat bet up to now, 1000 guineas. Maybe a bit short considering she hasn't had a run this season. Gamilati has looked very impressive this season.has good course form ,not sure if Detori will ride but still doesn't put me off at 16/1

Well that's a good start to the season. post my selection and it looks certain to be taken out of the race with an injury 3 days later:cryif theres an award for worst anti post selection i must be in the running:D

[robertob]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

For the Irish 1.000 Guineas I do fancy Dermot Weld's Yellow Rosebud. She might be limited to 7f but there is a fair chance that she's stays one mile (failed last year at first attempt over that distance). Her sire Jeremy was only narrowly denied to win the Queen Anne. Didn't find prices for the Irish 1.000 Guineas yet but asked Paddy Power to give me a price. Will see...

Very interesting in that case that Dermot Weld has the Irish 1.000 Guineas in his mind for Yellow Rosebud indeed. Found this article today:

Dermot Weld is targeting the Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas with his exciting filly Yellow Rosebud Dermot Weld is targeting the Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas with his exciting filly Yellow Rosebud. The three-year-old made a winning debut at Leopardstown last June before chasing home Maybe in the Debutante Stakes at the Curragh and finishing fourth in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp. She also holds an entry in the English Guineas, but Weld is planning to keep his charge at home and is hoping the current mild weather brings her forward. "She's a nice filly. She's still a little bit backward, surprisingly, despite this lovely weather," Weld told At The Races. "She'll run in one of the Classic trials, probably the Derrinstown Guineas Trial, with a view to going for the Irish 1,000 Guineas. "She's slightly more backward than I'd like at this time but with this lovely weather, she should come forward rapidly in the coming weeks."

http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/irish/2012/0327/315222-weld-aiming-yellow-at-irish-guineas/

[switzerland]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Dubai Sheema Classic - Beaten Up - EW 5/1 B365 I'm all over Beaten Up for the Dubai Sheema Classic. Obviously a tough race but I know a few of the forum regulars like this horse too. I've backed him on his last two starts and don't intend deserting him now. He was un-raced as a 2year old and lightly raced as a 3 year old so I think he is open to loads of improvement. He went into most people's notebook when winning the St Simon Stakes at the end of last season. Despite racing very keenly he still breezed past a good field (Al Kazeem and Barbican are solid horses). This is another step up in class and obviously he has it all to do against Cirrus De Aigles and St Nichlos Abbey. But if Beaten Up is fit (and this would appear to have been his aim for some time) then I think he'll put up a big performance. Murtagh probably had the choice of a few in this but he's sticking with the Haggas horse.

[robertob]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Footage from Sunday's Ballydoyle gallops (Camelot, Maybe...)

If you can't see the video:

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 ive done 3 different systems on the spring mile and all 3 came down to 1 horse ......MONT RAS ......i dont need to mess about with this race thankfully so i'll take the 10pts e.w on mont ras at 13/2 ...not even worried about the draw as statistical evidence is hugely in this horses favour of winning ....easily

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Awful news Montjeu has been put down :(

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Awful news Montjeu has been put down :(

:eek :eek:eek:cry:cry(mind you hes been superstud for the last 10 years ,....had the life of riley !!)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Possibly the worst ever ante-post bet on Wise Venture for the 2000 Guineas made after he won his first two races. Alan Jarvis would have a better chance if he ran it himself. Had a dabble on Light From Mars for the Lincoln after his recent run at Wolverhampton. Can't remember if I got 33s or 40s but think it was the latter. Ran a good race there after a spell in the wilderness after winning at Newbury last year (and running well in the Spring Mile). Race wasn't really run to suit but he travelled well and kept on without threatening. Isn't the type to come thundering home up the Wolves straight. If he gets good/quick ground, he should run his race back down to a good mark. Won twice off this mark or higher, including that Newbury win off 97 (now runs off 94). Not had a really big look at the classics to be honest. I can usually gauge how good jump horses will be better than those on the flat. Will no doubt study a bit more when I can smell the Lincoln and get the flat back into my blood.

Light From Mars into 20s now on the whole. Very tentative with the draw, though. Recent years have shown a lack of trends for all high draws were favoured last year. May well bag the rail so if that's where the best ground is, he must have a decent chance. Starting to get a bit excited now for the flat. Gives me something to really look at because I've been very lazy and not motivated since Cheltenham.

[fintron]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Two I am looking forward to seeing are Wizz Kid in the Group sprints and Fox Hunt in the Cup races. Wizz Kid ideally wants a bit of juice in the ground but is a real speed ball. Fox Hunt did me several favours last year for Johnston and, now with Godolphin, has progressed again over in Dubai. He ran an absolute blinder in the Melbourne Cup and I can see him winning something like the Yorkshire Cup this year.

Fox Hunt declared for the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan on Saturday. Reopposes Opinion Poll. Frankie jumps off Fox Hunt to ride the latter. Zarooni has said Opinion Poll will strip fitter for his last run. Looks an interesting race with that in mind, they're betting 3/1 Fox Hunt, 7/2 Opinion Poll.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 They don't half make you wade through some shite before the big day such as Saturday. Tomorrow is horrific!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Redvers could be well handicapped up to a mile I reckon having joined Edward Vaughan prior to the Spring Cup. Really shaped like he wants further and although it's possible that he might just stay 7f well but not quite get home over a mile, he's certainly worth a crack. Ran a blinder at 80/1 when having plenty to find on figures in a conditions race at Doncaster when last seen. Only going down by 1 3/4l (squeezed out yards from line) to rivals rated 15 and 23lbs higher than him respectively. He's only gone up 6lbs for that. Again the draw will be crucial I imagine but he's at least drawn on one definite side in stall 1 and if fit and getting home, looks a big threat to me. Having said that, my Lincoln hope is drawn on the other side so not sure how to play it. Seems unlikely I'll get good runs out of both unless the track is riding unbiased. Tricky situation!

[robertob]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

I've backed The Fugue for the Epsom Oaks (33/1). I thought she won very impressively at her only start to date at Newmarket. She didn't beat much but the way she did it was breathtaking as she had a bad start but still won hands and heels ridden and pulled clear with the second placed horse of the rest of the field. Well, you never know what happens over the winter but I think she can progress over distance and I'm keen to see her back at the track.

Just read William Buick's new blog on At The Races and it was good to read the following about The Fuge there. The last sentence in particular sounds good. Of course it means not much, but it's always nice to hear some positive news:

William Buick's blog - MY TOP TEN FOR 2012 THE FUGUE 3 br f Dansili – Twyla Tharp “I was on the way to the Melbourne Cup when she made her winning debut under Rab at Newmarket in late October winning a seven furlong maiden very nicely. I enjoyed watching the race when I got back and she could have a bright season ahead of her and she comes from a decent family as her dam was second in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot. I haven’t sat on her yet but I’ve seen her and she’s developed very well over the winter.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 had 22 pts returned from krypton factor saturday so decided to try and find an ante post bet for the national at a good price ........dug my checklist out again (saturdays horse got beat sht head) and applied to grand national betting ..... just one horse passed all criteria ......SUNNYHILLBOY 25/1 BETFAIR (generally 14-16/1) ......he is 9yrs old ,(set to carry 10-5) recently won at cheltenham ....easily ........big factor sired by old vic who has sired 2 from 4 last national winners i think so his pricetag just looks absolutely huge to me SUNNYHILLBOY 22PTS WIN 26.0 BETFAIR (POTENTIAL RETURNS AROUND 572 POINTS )

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 SORRY PUT ABOVE BET IN WRONG THREAD ......DELETE IF POSSIBLE

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

had 22 pts returned from krypton factor saturday so decided to try...

Not relevant, but this made me spill my coffee. Superb :D

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Have to admit I was massively impressed with the winner of the Brocklesby and would expect him to be even better next time out. He made that rapid progress past the whole field under pretty soft handling. Definitely one to follow for me

[robertob]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Loads of money for Most Improved for the Guineas according RP. He's as short as 9/2 now. I'm obviously happy with my 14/1. http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/newmarket-guineas-most-improved-guineas-gamble-gathers-pace/1010143/top/

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Loads of money for Most Improved for the Guineas according RP. He's as short as 9/2 now. I'm obviously happy with my 14/1. http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/newmarket-guineas-most-improved-guineas-gamble-gathers-pace/1010143/top/

thats good ........even better for me ......most improved is about 5/1 ,power about 10-12/1 and my trumpet major who was within 1 length of the pair is still 33/1 (ive taken 40's) ....and he met trouble in running !!!

[fintron]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Flemenstar wins the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse but Rathlin must go into notebooks as a horse crying out for a return to soft ground - he leg action very much hinted so as he raced on good today.

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

Flemenstar wins the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse but Rathlin must go into notebooks as a horse crying out for a return to soft ground - he leg action very much hinted so as he raced on good today.

Just bumped the jumps thread in case this was in the wrong place.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

had 22 pts returned from krypton factor saturday so decided to try and find an ante post bet for the national at a good price ........dug my checklist out again (saturdays horse got beat sht head) and applied to grand national betting ..... just one horse passed all criteria ......SUNNYHILLBOY 25/1 BETFAIR (generally 14-16/1) ......he is 9yrs old ,(set to carry 10-5) recently won at cheltenham ....easily ........big factor sired by old vic who has sired 2 from 4 last national winners i think so his pricetag just looks absolutely huge to me SUNNYHILLBOY 22PTS WIN 26.0 BETFAIR (POTENTIAL RETURNS AROUND 572 POINTS )

thats the last 3 horses beaten in photos .......now im sickened .........

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I know this is the flat thread but On His Own for next year's national! A million miles away really but considering he's only had a handful of chase runs going into today at the age of 8 and the fact he was running a blinder, getting more confident through the race, tanking up into 4th place at Bechers having been right out the back early on, gives him serious credentials next year so long as everything goes to plan.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I'm not going to get involved on Camelot at 5/2 for the Derby, even though he was so impressive at Doncaster, and of the rest, Akeed Mofeed is very interesting in my eyes. The O'Brien horse possesses a lot of speed, and whilst that doesn't mean he can't win over the Derby trip at all, John Oxx's horse is a big, galloping type who looks certain to improve for further. He's by Dubawi, who has a good record at Epsom, and is out of an unraced dam who has stamina influences on pedigree. Having been a very eyecatching 4th on debut over 7f at Leopardstown - thundering home late on having been out the back of a strung-out field, he won nicely over the same c&d next time when staying on strongly to pull well clear. The runner-up won next time out and is rated 98. Last time out he just couldn't mow down David Livingston over a mile on heavy ground at the Curragh - with the pair a mile clear of the aforementioned 98-rated horse. He slowly but surely inched into the leader's decent lead and was closing fairly quickly at the line to go down by 1/2l. The effort suggested he really does want more of a stamina test with the winner a proven high-class individual over 7f/1m. My selection is rated 113 but it seems very likely he'll improve on that upped in trip and although he misses the Guineas due to a slight problem, he'll be fine for the Epsom classic unless another issue comes to light, and there's a high chance he'll be shorter than he is right now after running in a trial. The Derby: 3pts win Akeed Mofeed @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

[Stevet1859]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 2000 Guineas Saturday 3:10 Newmarket: Hermival 1pt e/w 25/1 Paddy Power (1/4 123) A disappointment and a four point loss that Dragon Pulse does not come over from France, however Mikel Delzangles is a trainer who strikes as someone who knows what he is doing and he relies on Hermival here. Hermival has only seen the racecourse twice, winning a maiden last backend over a mile, before putting up a very encouraging performance at Maisons-laffitte when not far behind French Fifteen and Abtaal. French Fifteen who lines up too, is already very smart having previously won a Listed race and then a Group One at Saint-cloud. Abtaal has been almost as impressive with a Group win to his name. For those that have run the Prix Djebel has probably been the best trial, so for Hermival to run third on only his second start is a fine effort. Having watched the replay he is held up out the back and then comes wide before coming through to be a clear third showing promise without being given an overly hard race. Hermival handles the softer conditions and he is by Dubawi an Irish 2000 Guineas winner and sire of Makfi who won this race for Mikel Delzangles. Every chance that Hermival could improve further.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport [/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Epsom 4:40 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Noble Mission [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 2/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 02/06/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Ladbrokes @ 34.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Value for Frankel's little brother. He failed to win on his only start as a Juvenile but proved a much better horse this year after winning his debut at Newbury by an easy 3 3/4 lengths. A hood was fitted for the first on that maiden win but according to trainer Henry Cecil "He won't have to wear it all the time because he is getting more relaxed." Prior to Derby day he is entered for two races. The Newmarket Stakes (listed) and also the Dante Stakes (Group 2). There is plenty to like about his pedigree and the trip is suitable being sired by Galileo. Frankle was never tried beyond 1m but their older brother Bullet Trainer won a Derby trial in 2010 on his third start making all the running to win by 2 1/4 lengths (12th of 12 in Debry). It's too bad he only raced once at 2yo but that could mean he's just blooming later. Connections tried the Derby once with this family and I think they do so once again with Noble Mission. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[richard-westwood]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012

well won some stake money for the guineas so going to have 20pts on camelot at 5/2 to win the 2000 guineas ......price short but speed rating was 10pts ahead of all other runners in the race so if he comes on cant see anything beating it ..........and already taken the 2nd rated horse also trumpet major 40/1 e.w ....who i think would probably have won his race with better luck and is only 10pts off camelot (good pedigree also ) so set now for the 2000 camelot 20pts win 5/2 (returns 70) trumpet major 10pts place 10/1 (returns 110) trumpet major 10pts win 40/1 (returns 410) +110pt place =520 pts!! and potentially win on camelot and trumpet placed would pay 180 points .....bring it on !!!!

well it was always going to be difficult on the ground but camelot did the business in the end ......shame t.m couldnt place but he would have hated the ground .....70pts returned ....a nice consolation prize !!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Investec Oaks - 2pts win The Fugue @ 20/1 (Bet365) Posted this about her prior to the 1000 Guineas: 3.15 Newmarket - 3pts win Diala @ 14/1 and 1pt win The Fugue @ 18/1 (Bet365) There are nibbles of money around for The Fugue - a horse I am keen on for the Oaks at Epsom next month. Her dam was edged out by a short-head in the Ribblesdale and she shaped like she'd get further when winning her maiden last year. I think that could be her big day but at the same time she's not without a hope today and it is encouraging that she is being backed. It will be difficult to win this with just one run under her belt but she was impressive that day. She travelled supremely well and made good headway up the centre of the course to track the leader before putting the race to bed close home. The runner-up has gone okay since and the pair were well clear. She was doing her best work late on and looked like she'd come on plenty for the run. The step up in trip will obviously suit and she looks a horse to follow this season. A promising run today will set her up nicely for a go at the Oaks. She really looks like an Oaks horse to me and I just hope she puts in a decent effort today. Her price could come down nicely should she do so.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Gotta be pleased with that. Great run for 4th, even though I'm still bamboozled!

[Stevet1859]

Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 The Oaks: Vow 2pts e/w 20/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 123) Vow looks worth an each way interest. She put up a very good performance first time out to beat 89 rated Everlong at Newbury over ten furlongs. This was the race William Haggas won with Dancing Rain last year on her way to victory in the Oaks. Vow is by Derby winner Motivator and there is plenty of stamina on the dam side too. Vow handled the softer surface at Newbury and it would be reasonable to expect she will go on good ground too. The extra distance of ground at Epsom should be in Vow's favour and if she builds on her solid debut, Vow could go close in the Classic in June.