richard-westwood Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 You will have to pray for a couple of dry days then because Hannon has said this morning that Strong Suit will only run if the ground is good. Surely those speed figs were recorded over 7f? I don't think Strong Suit is as good over a mile. Having said that he hasn't had many attempts over a mile. he might not run but if he does then 14/1 will be huge price ........yes it was over 7f but he did it easily as well ......at present the omens look good as the ground is drying but if it rains again then could be out .......i just think that frankel has beaten excelebration on numerous occasions but hasnt run against an improving fast type like strong suit before and i know that hannon thinks a lot of this horse and he probably didnt run his best race in the breeders cup but you cant doubt his turn of foot especially on his favoured good ground ......i think he is capable of around 110 if really pushed and that could give anyone a run for their money ........just hope he gets a chance.......i know he best strong suit early on but that horse improved off the scale since then and if you look at the way he won over 7f .....on the bridle both times and he is only 3lbs behind excelebration with a much more upward profile then i think his price is a bit silly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 he might not run but if he does then 14/1 will be huge price ........yes it was over 7f but he did it easily as well ......at present the omens look good as the ground is drying but if it rains again then could be out .......i just think that frankel has beaten excelebration on numerous occasions but hasnt run against an improving fast type like strong suit before and i know that hannon thinks a lot of this horse and he probably didnt run his best race in the breeders cup but you cant doubt his turn of foot especially on his favoured good ground ......i think he is capable of around 110 if really pushed and that could give anyone a run for their money ........just hope he gets a chance.......i know he best strong suit early on but that horse improved off the scale since then and if you look at the way he won over 7f .....on the bridle both times and he is only 3lbs behind excelebration with a much more upward profile then i think his price is a bit silly I like him alot too richard, but i did get my fingers burnt in the BC but nothing went right for him but he is a very good horse and replacement for Canford Cliffs. This wee clip is worth a watch. http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid761333525001?bckey=AQ~~,AAAAAAnV5Z0~,xyoxShbYDLGSh2yu4XruBQh1N8XmHpc9&bctid=1638629135001 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
switzerland Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I know its crazy to suggest but does anyone feel the Lockinge may be the best chance for Excelebration to beat Frankel. Frankel has had a set-back and Excelebration comes into the race with having already had a run this season. It's likely Excelebration has improved maybe a couple of lbs for the switch to Aiden O'Brien. I think if Frankel is going to get beat this season then it might be on Saturday. I don't want him to get beat and I won't be having a bet in the race but I just think he is vulnerable. I'd be careful about the O'Brien horses over the next few days. Rumours going round about a virus in the yard. The may well be just rumours but his runners over the last week have run very poorly (0 from 16). Twirl was supposed to have scoped badly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I was looking at The Derby and was quite interested in Parish Hall. I see that he has been backed for the Irish 2000, is the intention to run in both? Pretty big ask to run in both so close... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haystacks Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Yes, they are intending to win both: http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/parish-hall-j-s-bolger-m-delzangles-irish-guineas-curragh-its-all-hall-as-punters-make-parish-preference/1038286/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I like Parish Hall on Saturday and he'll get further. Interesting horse in a pretty weak group (obviously with 1 exception) of male 3yos imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I am very tempted to take Parish Hall to win on Saturday and then follow up in the Derby. Might have a little bet on it but he must be half decent if Bolger says he is up there with the best he has trained. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Parish Hall, Hermival, Power, Takar, Born To Sea, Trumpet Major, Daddy Long Legs and Wrote declared for the Irish 2.000 Guineas. Really interesting field. Born To sea will wear a hood for the first time to relax him better through the race and he'll be ridden by Pat Smullen as Murtagh has commitments to Aga Khan's Takar. Had a look through the betting market and think 9/1 for BTS with PP is rather too big. He clearly didn't show what he's capable of at Newmarket. I think he'll be much happier on the faster surface too. I have to admit the most interesting horse for me is Daddy Long Legs, though. I can't believe he's 14/1 with VC. Ground is Good, good to firm in places at the moment and it's likely that it will dry out further as it's really warm here, the sun is shining all day and no rain is expected over the next couple of days. DLL relishes a fast surface and he'll get it on Saturday. I don't mind his non-existent performance in the Kentucky Derby. He just don't get the dirt. But he won the UAE derby in good style and he was impressive last year in the Royal Lodge Stakes. He's probably not the likeliest winner of the Guineas on Saturday but has a much better chance than 14/1 on my tissue at least. As for the 1.000 Guineas I said it a few month ago: For the Irish 1.000 Guineas I do fancy Dermot Weld's Yellow Rosebud. She might be limited to 7f but there is a fair chance that she's stays one mile (failed last year at first attempt over that distance). Her sire Jeremy was only narrowly denied to win the Queen Anne. Didn't find prices for the Irish 1.000 Guineas yet but asked Paddy Power to give me a price. Will see... I still fancy her of course. Was happy to see her having a winning seasonal reappearance. The 1000 Guineas is not the strongest renewal this year and I think Homecoming Queen is way too short. Yellow Rosebud still 4/1 is a very good price in my mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 The Derby 4:00 Saturday 2nd June: Kesampour 1pt e/w 33/1 Sportingbet Kesampour looks a big price for an unbeaten colt with some impressive connections and a fine pedigree. Kesampour is a product of His Highness the Aga Khan's breeding operation. The bloodlines of his middle distance horses are a match for anything in Europe. Kesampour is by Kings Best who sired Workforce to win the Derby and the Arc. Looking through Kesampour's form he has been brought along gently by his trainer Mikel Delzangles who is capable of winning big races. Probably Kesampour's best win was over the furthest he has run and on the soundest surface he has encountered, when winning a Listed race at Saint-cloud in April. Top Trip who was in second went on to win a Group 2 next time. In his warm up for this race Kesampour just did enough to beat Albion, form that would not be good enough, yet Kesampour looks to have potential and he could step up considerably over further and on good ground. At 33/1 Kesampour looks over priced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Investec Oaks - 2pts win The Fugue @ 20/1 (Bet365) Posted this about her prior to the 1000 Guineas: 3.15 Newmarket - 3pts win Diala @ 14/1 and 1pt win The Fugue @ 18/1 (Bet365) There are nibbles of money around for The Fugue - a horse I am keen on for the Oaks at Epsom next month. Her dam was edged out by a short-head in the Ribblesdale and she shaped like she'd get further when winning her maiden last year. I think that could be her big day but at the same time she's not without a hope today and it is encouraging that she is being backed. It will be difficult to win this with just one run under her belt but she was impressive that day. She travelled supremely well and made good headway up the centre of the course to track the leader before putting the race to bed close home. The runner-up has gone okay since and the pair were well clear. She was doing her best work late on and looked like she'd come on plenty for the run. The step up in trip will obviously suit and she looks a horse to follow this season. A promising run today will set her up nicely for a go at the Oaks. She really looks like an Oaks horse to me and I just hope she puts in a decent effort today. Her price could come down nicely should she do so. Fingers crossed for today. She's here in one piece, the yard are in good form and the ground is right for her. Can't ask for much more - just hope she's the best filly on the day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Fingers crossed for today. She's here in one piece' date=' the yard are in good form and the ground is right for her. Can't ask for much more - just hope she's the best filly on the day![/quote'] Good luck mate ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I've backed The Fugue for the Epsom Oaks (33/1). I thought she won very impressively at her only start to date at Newmarket. She didn't beat much but the way she did it was breathtaking as she had a bad start but still won hands and heels ridden and pulled clear with the second placed horse of the rest of the field. Well' date=' you never know what happens over the winter but I think she can progress over distance and I'm keen to see her back at the track.[/quote'] 3rd! :wall :( :( :wall Bit of Each-Way money at least. But still disappointing. Have to watch the race again but it looked as if she didn't have the best of races anyway. Buick almost fallen down from her at some point. She had too much to do eventually, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Two I am looking forward to seeing are Wizz Kid in the Group sprints and Fox Hunt in the Cup races. Wizz Kid ideally wants a bit of juice in the ground but is a real speed ball. Fox Hunt did me several favours last year for Johnston and, now with Godolphin, has progressed again over in Dubai. He ran an absolute blinder in the Melbourne Cup and I can see him winning something like the Yorkshire Cup this year. Fox Hunt died in Meydan but Wizz Kid just a ran a cracker at Chantilly and slaughtered a Group 2 field despite meeting with trouble in running. She's 20/1 for the King's Stand now so I've backed her for that race as I think she will be one of many that duck Black Caviar in the Golden Jubilee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 A very smart 2 year old runs tomorrow in France in Penny's Picnic. Anyone have any idea if this horse is Royal Ascot bound? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 The early bird catches the worm Maybe too early but I don't see Camelot going the Arc route and wonder if O'Brien would send Imperial Monarch here. Also like the look of Nathaniel and Saint Baudolino at big prices. Small bet on each and tie up a few quid to secure these prices. Full reasoning and details here: http://www.punterslounge.com/prix-de-l-arc-de-triomphe-ante-post-betting--an-early-look-at-some-value-outsiders-that-could-seek-success-at-longchamp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 3.45 ascot st james palace stakes ....... just like the look of LUCAYAN in this as he has very strong form from the french guineas and will handle any cut in the ground should it rain ,fact that he has been supplemented should be a clue as to his form ,power sets the standard but isnt the most consistent horse and that last race didnt look that strong especially from a speed point of view ,dangers aplenty with dragon pulse and the up and coming cognito but i think for a guineas winner to be available at 11/1 against a 5/2 fav looks a bit silly and im going in feet first i would expect him to go off around the 13/2 mark LUCAYAN 10pts e.w 11/1 sporting bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Coventry Stakes (Royal Ascot) - 3pts win Englishman @ 8/1 (SJ) I do like Englishman for the Coventry. Did well to win on debut and did it well in the end - step up to 6f will suit and the race has worked out extremely well. That was on soft so the anticipated ground will be no problem. Never the easiest race to get right so not worth going mad but Dawn Approach hasn't blown me away so far despite having an obvious chance and it's possible he'll just lack the speed of some others - he is by New Approach after all. It was hard to not be impressed by Sir Prancealot last time out but the ground is a new one for him so I'll take him on. Just think Englishman is very solid. Has speed and a turn of foot, will get home, the ground isn't an issue and his form looks strong. A two month break is no concern as horses who've had a short break have the best results in the race (5 out of 8 horses who've run in this having last run 61-90 days ago have won or placed). Stan James are offering 8/1 and that looks very fair to me and I reckon he'll go off shorter on the day if all goes well between now and then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Wednesday 3:45 Royal Ascot: Farhh 1pt e/w 14/1 Paddy Power (1/4 123) Just reading on the Racing Post web site that So You Think has gone odds on in the Prince of Wales. Last year Rewilding managed to beat So You Think, and Godolphin may have another contender on their hands in Farhh who takes a huge step up in class, however Farhh has lots of potential and looks worth siding with at the prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted June 17, 2012 Author Share Posted June 17, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Wednesday 3:45 Royal Ascot: Farhh 1pt e/w 14/1 Paddy Power (1/4 123) Just reading on the Racing Post web site that So You Think has gone odds on in the Prince of Wales. Last year Rewilding managed to beat So You Think, and Godolphin may have another contender on their hands in Farhh who takes a huge step up in class, however Farhh has lots of potential and looks worth siding with at the prices. Good luck with that Steve. Hoping they bounce back at some point as I couldn't back their horses with stolen money at the moment. See the SDS thread that I just bumped. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 3.05 ascot kings stand tues i really liked the way WIZZ KID accelerated lto in a pretty quick time and thats will have put this young improving type spot on for his clash with the big boys here .......the 6/1 with ladbrokes looks generous compared to others and hopefully can run well although has tough opposition to overcome .....another horse im a big fan of is MONSIEUR JOE who ran an absolute stinker lto but firm ground and race coming too soon could have been possible excuse so on better ground and been freshened up specifically it would be no surprise to see him bounce back and if so the prices look silly wizz kid 10pts win 6/1 ladbrokes monsieur joe 10pts to place 18.0 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Saturday 7:40 The Curragh: Imperial Monarch 1pt win 7/1 Blue Square A touch surprised that Imperial Monarch is being allowed to take his chance here. He handles the soft is a course winner and was unlucky in France. Could very well shake up Camelot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe: Imperial Monarch 1pt e/w 25/1 Stan James (1/4 123) If Imperial Monarch runs well today in the Irish Derby, he might just be put away by connections and then come back late in the season for this. Three year olds do well and the going is likely to the soft side at Longchamp in October which will suit Imperial Monarch. Last year's impressive winner, Danedream disappointed last time and while it will probably pay to forgive that, it looks an open race at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannn17 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Anyone know how likely Bonfire is to race in the Eclipse this weekend? So You Think is obviously going to be tough to beat but I don't think Bonfire stayed the trip in the Derby and he will be more suited over this trip so at the 12/1 you can get at the moment on Betfair I think it could be worth a small bet. Nathaniel I like very much but imo needs further and it will be a big ask on his seasonal debut. Farhh does look like an interesting prospect and was very unlucky in the Prince of Wales, remains unexposed and wouldn't count out a huge run here. Bonfire is going to be my main bet here though if running, looks a good bet down in trip here as there is no doubts that it has ability! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Saturday 3:00 York: Area Fifty One 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Its likley that Area Fifty One will be a shorter price come Saturday. He looks to have a lot going for him. He is a horse in form and is trained by Richard Fahey who has a very good record in the race. Area Fifty One seems to have improved for being gelded and with only nine races on turf he could be open to a little more improvement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 10, 2012 Author Share Posted July 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Saturday 3:00 York: Area Fifty One 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Its likley that Area Fifty One will be a shorter price come Saturday. He looks to have a lot going for him. He is a horse in form and is trained by Richard Fahey who has a very good record in the race. Area Fifty One seems to have improved for being gelded and with only nine races on turf he could be open to a little more improvement. I posted about this on a footy forum last night funnily enough. Backed it at York earlier in the season and felt it would come on. 4l winner last time out and very impressive. Runs under a 5lb penalty and is due to go up an extra 3lb. Fahey has an excellent record at York too, haven't seen a jockey booking yet. I looked this morning, best price was 10's and a few were only going 8's. You've nicked a good price there mate. I hope to be there on Saturday to cheer it home. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 I posted about this on a footy forum last night funnily enough. Backed it at York earlier in the season and felt it would come on. 4l winner last time out and very impressive. Runs under a 5lb penalty and is due to go up an extra 3lb. Fahey has an excellent record at York too' date=' haven't seen a jockey booking yet. I looked this morning, best price was 10's and a few were only going 8's. You've nicked a good price there mate. I hope to be there on Saturday to cheer it home. :ok[/quote'] Lets hope he goes well Mowgli. Just had a look and seen its Shane B Kelly - who I can't claim (sorry) to know too much about. However, looking at the trends again on Racecaller, that's a positive as claimers have a very good record in this race. Hope you have a good day :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Saturday 4:35 Ascot King George: Sea Moon 1pt win 100/30 Skybet Hardly a price to set the pulse racing, yet can't help but think it will be shorter come next week. Sea Moon looks pretty certain to run and with Sir Michael Stoute's string picking up momentum all the time combined with an excellent effort by Sea Moon over course and distance in the Hardwicke, a big run looks likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Saturday 4:35 Ascot King George: Masked Marvel 33/1 1pt EW Coral or William Hill Primarily on the basis that the three shorter priced fancies seem so short they have knocked out some prices to be longer than I think are realistic. This horse won one of last years classics, is sure to get the distance and in winning the St Leger beat the very short priced Sea Moon in doing so. It may seem crackers but despite it not having had a great season the price added to the form of the yard is simply too big for me to ignore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Maybe too early but I don't see Camelot going the Arc route and wonder if O'Brien would send Imperial Monarch here. Also like the look of Nathaniel and Saint Baudolino at big prices. Small bet on each and tie up a few quid to secure these prices. Full reasoning and details here: http://www.punterslounge.com/prix-de-l-arc-de-triomphe-ante-post-betting--an-early-look-at-some-value-outsiders-that-could-seek-success-at-longchamp The Nathaniel bet looks particularly good now, it's 8-1 second favourite. I hope Imperial Monarch goes this route as I think it would go well there if getting a decent draw. Saint Baudolino out at 90.0 on Betfair for the Arc though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Re: Ante Post Bets and Discussion- Flat Thread 2012 Great bet you've got there, Mowgli. He's the one I have to be on in the King George. My only worry is that the race has come too soon. I think Sea Moon outclassed stayers last time out, and I think St Nic is vulnerable to anything with a bit of toe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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