BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb

[The Saint]

350 Southwell – Storm Hawk – 3/1 - Ladbrokes Reformed character since being tried in blinkers or running at Southwell – or both – no matter because he is wearing blinkers at Southwell today! Looks to have a much better turn of foot to me than Captain Bellemy and I’m very surprised this one isn’t favourite.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 1.40 Southwell Takajan 1pt win 11/2 Ladbrokes I think this horse has shown signs of a revival in his last couple of starts and may now be ready to strike. He has dropped to a very low mark and is well treated on old form. Fallon has been booked for the ride and if he can get to anything like his best form, then he would have a great chance of taking this. This is the first time in 5 runs that the horse will have a good jockey on board and given the horses good record over CD, I would expect a much better showing from him tomorrow.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb *Captain Bellamy - Southwell 3:50* 3-time course winner and 2-time course and distance winner. Record at Southwell reads 2-1-1-1, clearly loves the track. Won very easy last time out under a lady amateur, and now the booking of Jimmy Fortune really catches the eye, if the horse does need a bit of driving near the finish, no better buachaill. Morrison stable in great nice and 10 of his last 22 runners at the track have won. When Fortune rides for Morrison at Southwell, he has had 4 rides, it reads 2-1-2-1. Fortune has won on 4 of his last 5 rides. Fortune has won on 6 of his last 10 rides at Southwell. *1 Point WIN @ 5/2 Bet365 BOG*

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb

4.20 Southwell This one isnt the most original but is a lot bigger than I expected so is probably worth a decent bet. First Bid doesnt look the easiest ride, can often race very keenly and not beaten that far over a mile around here and could build on that but may find others better treated at the moment. There is probably not a lot between JJ Leary and Samasana on there running here last week over this course over a mile, but JJ Leary has now disappointed on both handicap starts ultimately and doesnt look the most convincing in a finish (head held to one side) interesting they try the visor again and that could just be whats needed but he will have to go some way to turn around that form in my opinion. Samasana is probably one of the most exposed runners in this field but has proved consistent since switched to this surface this winter and finally shedding her maiden tag last time out it good fashion, travelling well and ultimately winning a shade cosy with rider having to get serious at all, 2nd and 3rd were closing but she had been out in front a long time and she wasnt fully asked, she has the speed to cope with the drop back in trip and a 6lb penalty might not be enough if running to the same level. Hamilton appeared to get a good tune out of her and retains the ride. 1pt win Samasana 9/4

VC

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 3.15 Southwell NAZREEF @ 11/8 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) Feature race of the afternoon. It's a Class 3 Handicap (4yo+ 0-95) over 7f with just 7 runners. Nazreef is the big favourite and I can't see beyond him. The horse is a true Firbresand specialist (5 wins in 8 starts on AW and 4 came here at Southwell even if all over 1m). Tried and adventure over hurdles at the end of 2011 and was 5th behind the winner Molotof in a Grade 2 at Ascot before Christmas. Back to the All Weather finished 4th and 3rd over 7f at Kempton running well with the form of his last effort boosted by the winner Palace Moon who won again and in a very good style next time out (a Class 2). Morrison's yard is in good form (1 winner, 2 seconds and 2 thirds with his last 6 runners) and he has a good record with Hayley Turner. I can't see a real threat for this horse in this race. Close To The Edge keeps running well but is still 6lb more than her last winning mark Caldercruix just beat Close To The Edge lto but is 4lb out of the handicap today and with adjusted marks he is 14lb more than his last winning mark. Follow The Flag is another one in good form but surely not over this short trip (never raced over 7f in the last 2 seasons). Sound Amigo is 2lb out of the handicap and will make his comeback after 4 months. This very lightly raced 4yo has 4 achieved 4 wins in 7 starts in his career so far (3 in 4 on AW) but never raced on Fibresand and last win came in a Class 5. Last time out raced in a Class 4 over 7f at Wolverhampton and was heavily backed again (same happened the time before) but even if able to take an easy lead couldn't match the quick finish of his opponents and finished just 4th. Surely able to improve but has a lot to prove. Phoenix Flight stands no chance while a little danger could be True To Form who won 7 of his 13 stars on AW (super record) and before failing last time out (8th of 9 at Lingfield over 12f) won two in a row. Never raced on Fibresand and all his wins but the first ever came over longer trips (last two this Winter over 1m 2f and 1m 1 1/2f) and his mark is still 5lb more than his last win. All in all I can't really see how Nazreef can lose this race (everything can happen but this looks a poor race even if it's a Class3) and the surprise could be just Sound Amigo who is very lightly raced and back after a long break but can't be backed at these odds with any special additional news about his form.

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb Nazreef a non-runner so I have another selection for today. 2.45 Southwell INGLEBY ARCH @ 10/3 bog (Victor Chandler) Ingleby Arch is my selection in this Dine In The Pantry Selling Stakes Class 6 (4yo+) over 7f. The David Barron-trained 9yo is a true specialist of the Fibresand as he won 10 times in 23 starts here at Southwell (adding 4 seconds too). He' been a very good horse throughout his career (was rated 99 in 2006 and still 93 in 2010 and 87 in 2011). He's now rated 75 but finds it hard in handicaps so his favourite field is selling/claiming stakes. His record in this kind of races here at Southwell is impressive: 312121 in the last 12 months. Ingleby Arch was used to be a sprinter and all his wins came mainly at 6f but nowadays he is better at 7f and won last twice over C&D (second over 6f in between), always here at Southwell. With the apprentice McNiff Ingleby Arch won his last race 3 weeks ago here so the team is perfect and David Barron's yard is in very good shape at the moment (3 winners with his last 9 runner). The horse will try to make all as usual and I hope he keep his head ahead till the post to register his 11th win here. Trans Sonic is the favourite (best priced at 2/1 atm) but the David O'Meara's 9yo is back after 60 days and his only start since May was a very poor effort in a similar race here at Southwell but over 6f so he is a lot to prove and even with Kieren Fallon booked for this race at this price I'm happy to oppose him. Zomerlust, Faithful Ruler and Imprimis Tagula are the other "old boys" with good cards to play but the first two ran close to eachother last time out (Faithful Ruler won) and I rate that form a bit behind Ingleby Arch's one while Imprimis Tagula seems not able to match his old form and was way behind my selection few weeks ago in a similar race. And all of them have to come from behind to beat Ingleby Arch. Vogarth's form is terrible and is rated just 40. A bit better Avalon Bay who is rated 52 but still more than 20lb to find today and just one win in 23 starts so far in his career. St Oswald changed hands and won his first ever race over C&D last December. Still very lightly raced and just 4yo, with the new training of Dandy Nicholls this horse could be a surprise but on BHA adjusted figures he should find 15lb to beat my selection today.

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 4.00 Ayr - Sammy Spiderman - All of his five wins are here at Ayr with three wins on todays going and one at todays distance, He has beaten Something Silver on three occassions and should still hold him today given their respective rises in the ratings. A number of other rivals have also previously been beaten, and where both have finished the race for a ratings comparison indicate that Sammy Spiderman should still hold them. Jockey E Williams takes up the ride again and takes off a useful 3lb. He has conditions (course, distance, going and class) to suit again today and should be able to maintain his current run of good form today. 4.00 Ayr: Sammy Spiderman - 1pt win @ 6/1 Ladbrokes (BOG) Res. 2.45 Southwell - Ingleby Arch - Course specialist who has 10 wins from 14 here at Southwell, he has also won twice at todays 7f from his last three races. On paper he is not the best rated/weighted in this seller, but he is clearly in good form and could go well again today. Of the better rated today, Imprimis Tagula may find todays race coming to soon after his race yesterday. Trans Sonic looks to be out of form of sorts, but with K Fallon aboard today should be respected. Zomerlust is clearly a turf horse who has yet to prove himself on the AW and Faithful Ruler may be better suited to polytrack. 2.45 Southwell: Ingleby Arch - 1pt win @ 10/3 BetVictor (BOG)

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 10.30 Scottsville: Kings Jet @ 33/10 Sportingbet Very exciting race with three very good juveniles. All three won impressively lto but I think the bookies have the prices wrong. Reign As Kings is a good prospect indeed but only that short in the betting market because of the De Kock/Delpech factor. For me is Kings Jet the most interesting one here especially at the current price. He won his debut in great style. Only an 800m race but he showed tremendous early speed, won it on the bridle and clocked a fast time. Step up in trip should be no problem as his pedigree suggests he will stay definitely the 1.100m.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 1.20 Ayr: Ancient Times (11/8 VC) A short price for a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle but plenty to like about Ancient Times in the opener at Ayr. He was second last time out over this course and well clear of the field and runs here off the same mark of 83. He was rated as high as 97 back in October and the step up in trip last time seemed to be the key for his improvement and useful jockey Lucy Alexander is on top again as she was last week. The ground wont be a problem and if he runs anywhere near the same level as last time he should win easy enough.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 4:30 Ayr - Cloudy Lane - Back Has an absolutely massive chance here. Was in another stratosphere to these when at his best and although he has declined since those days, he still retains plenty of ability and should show that here. Was 2nd in a much better race than this Lto and a reproduction of that should see him win this at a hack canter 1pt win @ 2/9 Bet365 BOG

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 3.50 - Southwell - Lyric Poet 1pt win @ 7/1 - Coral Going to take a chance on Lyric Poet today who is is tackling both fibresand and the 2m trip for the first time. He has only won once on the all weather from 9 starts which came over a shorter trip (1m 1f), however he ran promisingly recently with a 2nd lto to Chabada over 1m 6f last month and seemed to be staying on okay. Could have a very good chance if he takes to the fibresand/trip.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 5.05 Ayr Dr Moloney 1pt win at 5/1 not a lot to go on the breeding side as its a first foal and no siblings trainer only had 4 bumpers sent to track and one of them won with a further 2 2nd places and with this jockey is 1/4 with a further 3rd place. doesnt send many out and last one he sent was successfull back in oct 11 at wexford. most of these trainers have a poor record in bumpers at track (esp lusinda) or in general so this looks a realistic opportunity to get in front.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb price with 365

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 15:50 South Lyric Poet - 1st time at course and distance but improved for step up to 14F LTO finding the well handicapped Chabada too much and finishing 3 1/2 lengths behind. Did however finish strong in that race and was 2 1/2 lengths ahead of the rest of the field. Same mark today for Willie Carson only ride. Afew in with a shout here so 0.5EW 15/2 William hill

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 1.40 Southwell - 2pts win Itsthursdayalready @ 6/1 (Bet365) I find this horse extremely interesting for a Mark Brisbourne yard who just appear to be turning a corner with regards to the wellbeing of the yard. This is a weak race, and although this horse doesn't win very often, 2 of his 3 career successes have come here, and he seems to enjoy the fibresand surface. He's 2lb lower than his last winning mark (a 4l success last May) and has only raced at Southwell once since (straight after when a decent 3rd off 60). Runs off 53 today and Shane Kelly is back on board for the first time in a while, under whom the horse registered both successes over c&d. Failed to really land a blow, since, though, although he ended the summer with a half-decent run, and I thought his recent reappearance run at Wolverhampton was not a bad one under an amateur pilot. He finished midfield and with that run under his belt, can go very close today back at the scene of his two all-weather victories. This is a poor race and he must have a fair shout today.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb Sou 2.10 - Handsome King - EW at 16/1 bog bet365 Finished 3rd in a 7 furlong maiden here last time on it's first run for a few months. The winner has since won a handicap Should be suited by extra furlong

[kroni]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 4:00 Ayr Ballyoliver @ 12/1 e-w sportingbet Early departure lto, before that won nicely at warwick on chase debut, up 15lb for that but could be more to come on just his 3rd chase start here today off a mark of 110. Conditions should suit here judged on pedigree and yard was in reasonable form before the bad weather stopped racing.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb INGLEBY ARCH 2.45 Southwell. 1 point win. Won last time and needs to at least repeat that performance to win again today. Trip and surface fine and others quite inconsistent, so with being in good recent form can be enough to win again. 2/1 Paddy Power BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb Sound Amigo 3.15 Southwell. 1 point win. Has a little to prove, but unexposed and I think will handle the surface. Can improve if he does and then should go very close. Others appear predictable, so not much needed to win this and we do look more than capable. 11/4 Victor Chandler (bog)

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 16:00 Ayr: Sammy Spiderman, 13/2 BetVictor, 1pt win Sammy Spiderman has been running well lately, winning lto and coming second on his two other runs this year. All five career wins have come here, one over today's distance. He has also won here on heavy ground so that won't be a problem. Ewan Whillans is in the saddle and he was on board when this horse won over today's C&D and the win lto.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Tue 14th Feb 1705 ayr 1pt win tc spitfire 9/1 bet365 not got any form,not a very good pedigree,and didnt cost much moneym but its from the mccain stable, and he normally does ok with horses like this, could be first, but could bomb, theway my lucks going, im thinking out the box