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Argentina > Primera Division > 2012


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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn][/TH] [TH]Tuesday 21 February 2012 [/TH] [TH]Home [/TH] [TH]Draw [/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]Away [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] CA Tigre v San Martin-San Juan (00:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.61 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 24 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Belgrano v Unión de Santa Fe (22:10 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/20 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 14/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.64 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 25 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Atlético de Rafaela v CA All Boys (00:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/20 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.29 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Colon de Santa Fe v Olimpo (22:10 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5/6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 23/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.68 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Estudiantes de La Plata v Independiente (22:10 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1/1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.02 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 26 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Argentinos Juniors v San Lorenzo (00:10 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 29/20 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 21/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Racing Club v CA Banfield (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4/7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Vélez Sársfield v Arsenal de Sarandi (20:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4/6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.90 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Boca Juniors v Newell's Old Boys (22:10 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4/7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11/2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.10 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Godoy Cruz de Mendoza v CA Tigre (22:10 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13/10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9/4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12/5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.23 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Hi, for regular viewers incase you were wondering where I'd gone the last few days, alot of buisness to deal with so otherwise engaged. Hopefully you noticed my "percentages" theory which I advised you about again last Saturday, and that you managed to take advantage of my predicted sequence. For those that didnt catch it here it is again : The season long average in the Apertura was 3 x Over 2.5, 7 x Under 2.5, per 10 match fixture list. After the first two games last weekend, which finished both well Over 2.5, I said it was likely that a minimum of 6 of the remaining 8 fixtures would be Under 2.5, my concern was that there could be two more Overs because there was only 2 the week before. So now with 20 games we have perfect average : 6 Overs from 20 games. Here's the resultfrom those remaining 8 games : The remaining fixtures produced 6 out of 8 Under 2.5's I told you this league was incredibly reliable !

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread It was actually 4 OVERs and 6 UNDERs on the round because Tigre won 3-1 on Monday. It was a good call on your side, the problem is that UNDER odds are not higher than 1.4-1.5 so if you use fixed stakes you need to win 2-3 bets to cover if you lose 1. Just curious: Do you use variable staking ? Or how do you trade an UNDER that starts with low odds?

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread hi MNC, sorry i forgot to include the tigre game, i edited my previous message to include it. i said i thought could be at least 2 more Overs (making 4) because there were only 2 the week before, so now we have 6 from 20 matches, the perfect averages that i talked about the last two weeks. im not betting at the moment because I simply haven't had enough funds to do so recently as was tied up in biz. last season on Arg' i would wait for the results of the first two games (unless i was convinced either w/be Unders) before deciding what to bet on the rest of them. i was using a stake of £50 on Unders, so the potential winnings would be on average £30 to £37 per game, a bit less if i traded out early. this is fine at those amounts providing you have a good betting bank but at the moment i don't. when i have a bank of around £1000 available i will then start betting again and I plan to operate my Arg bets on stakes of £100 but only when I am totally confident like i was last weekend, and look what i would have won ! i would not have bet Tigre Unders, the last match, because i had a hunch to expect four Overs last weekend to level the 3 to 10 ratio. the great thing with Arg' is if you lose one Unders you can be pretty sure the next one will be a winner and its easy to see where you will recover your losses. i don't think theres any other league you could do that in. you definately could not do it confidently in the English leagues. in Arg last season I would usually use just one same stake of £50, but there were a few occasions where i staked £100 (all were winners) especially if it was the last match of the weekend if there had already been 4 x Overs in the other 9 games because the statistics and percentages don't lie in this league. if you're betting Under 2.5 and it's still 0-0 at half time you could just trade out early whatever the final result so you can then relax, the deal is already done and you're in profit whatever the outcome. let's say you bet very low odds of 1.60 pre kick off, maybe at half time at 0-0, odds might be as low as 1.15, so if you'd staked £50 you could take £18.58 profit rather than wait for £28.50 (Betfair) but run the risk of losing £50. if i was using stakes of £100 then i would definately get out as early as possible as long as the profit was good. i work on the basis if i can get around 70% of the maximum possible amount then jump out early, why take the risk ? occasionally a game in Arg will have decent odds for the Under 4.5, the first Boca game was a classic example, 1.15, thats the sort of game i would go in with a massive stake on Under 4.5 rather than take the Under 2.5, because the chances of 5 goals in that game were so remote, but the chances of 3 were quite high, it was 2-0. now on that Boca, game I watched the odds for Under 4.5, 1.15 at kick off, they were there to Lay at 1.04 a few mins before the 44th minute first goal. on that occasion had I bet it I would have jumped out at 1.04 for stress-free reasons, so for every £100 staked you could take £10.04 profit when the odds hit 1.04 some people might say its crazy to put £100 on 1.15, but if you look at the chances of losing they are pretty remote, its a very successful scheme for me. the key to it is to pick your games carefully and not to take chances, trade out early if it looks like there could be an unexpected goal-fest.

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Belgrano - Santa Fe - Friday 22.10 hrs GMT WTF ? Santa Fe haven't scored a goal in any of their last 6 matches ! 3 of those have been 0-0. Belgrano got hammered last week 4-1 at Olimpo, and that's a rare scoreline in this league ! Both of the last two meetings in this fixture have been 3-2, again rare scorelines in any of the leading Argentinian leagues. Bet365 should be ashamed for offering what is the worst odds I have ever seen on Under 2.5 @ 1.47, that's taking the piss because I think this one could go either way Unders or Overs. Betfair is 1.53 on Unders which after commission is 1.50, it's way too low and doesn't represent the real risk in this match. In terms of the match result, it would appear to need a miracle for Santa Fe to score a goal, but it's about time that scoreless sequence was broken so we could expect them to score tonight. Belgrano are inconsistent but based on previous history between them if anyone's gonna win it I can only see it being Belgrano who might be fired up after last weeks disaster. My previous two weekends tipping in this league has been good, so going with my instincts on this one I do not advise any Under or Overs betting on this match. I suggest you wait and see the result of this one and then use it to judge the rest of the weekends activity as I've suggested before in my earlier postings in this thread based on the percentages system I recommend for this league. Belgrano Draw No Bet @ 1.50 looks safe, but is it worth it for those odds ? The only bet I could recommend on this game is a small stake on the 0-0 Edit : It's 8 games since Santa Fe played a game in which Both Teams Scored, perhaps this sequence could end tonight. The pre kick off odds for BTTS are around 2.20

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Belgrano - Santa Fe - Friday 22.10 hrs GMT WTF ? Santa Fe haven't scored a goal in any of their last 6 matches ! 3 of those have been 0-0. Belgrano got hammered last week 4-1 at Olimpo, and that's a rare scoreline in this league ! Both of the last two meetings in this fixture have been 3-2, again rare scorelines in any of the leading Argentinian leagues. Bet365 should be ashamed for offering what is the worst odds I have ever seen on Under 2.5 @ 1.47, that's taking the piss because I think this one could go either way Unders or Overs. Betfair is 1.53 on Unders which after commission is 1.50, it's way too low and doesn't represent the real risk in this match. In terms of the match result, it would appear to need a miracle for Santa Fe to score a goal, but it's about time that scoreless sequence was broken so we could expect them to score tonight. Belgrano are inconsistent but based on previous history between them if anyone's gonna win it I can only see it being Belgrano who might be fired up after last weeks disaster. My previous two weekends tipping in this league has been good, so going with my instincts on this one I do not advise any Under or Overs betting on this match. I suggest you wait and see the result of this one and then use it to judge the rest of the weekends activity as I've suggested before in my earlier postings in this thread based on the percentages system I recommend for this league. Belgrano Draw No Bet @ 1.50 looks safe, but is it worth it for those odds ? The only bet I could recommend on this game is a small stake on the 0-0 Edit : It's 8 games since Santa Fe played a game in which Both Teams Scored, perhaps this sequence could end tonight. The pre kick off odds for BTTS are around 2.20
I think you are dead right saying avoid under 2.5 goals at those odds. Belgrano clean sheet is 2.36 odds - I'm going to give that one a go. Also I think DNB is a good option too.
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread I'm not betting on it at all, as I'll only be tempted to watch it and I've got more important things to do. I'll keep tabs on the scoreline whilst its on though and I'm still happy to post up my predictions. Edit : 30 mins gone. Not even a single corner registered. To anyone watching it, is this match as shit as that suggests ? Would you believe it, seconds ago a corner ! Could be a thriller afterall ? LOL

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread It's both witty and humorous, while also being antagonising and inflammatory. But then it is topical too. I will admit I giggled - but like all jokes they are bound to offend some of those that are victims of jokes. Anyway... an easy profit from that game. Might put something small on Rafaela DNB or just lay All Boys. But I might just go to bed without any bet. Good night!

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Even without looking at the stats its clearly another good 0-0 opportunity to me, Rafaela v All Boys. Off the top of my head I think Rafaela have been the most regular Over 2.5 team in the Apertura, so it might be risky to go Unders on this one even though from the All Boys angle it looks decent. 4-1 last time this fixture. I'd only suggest the 0-0 for a small stake unless you're prepared to sit and watch it to control any Unders bet.

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Haha... the Glitter strategy failed me! :lol I can only rely upon Old Boys rather than All Boys. I still made a small profit from the two games. 0-0 was definitely a brilliant pick from that game again Anorak - but like you said, you'd have had to manage it all the way to the end of the game.

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Saturday 25 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Colon de Santa Fe v Olimpo (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.12[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.24 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Estudiantes de La Plata v Independiente (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.02[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.14 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Sunday 26 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Argentinos Juniors v San Lorenzo (00:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.48[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Godoy Cruz de Mendoza v CA Tigre (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.32[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.04 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Racing Club v CA Banfield (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.31 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Boca Juniors v Newell's Old Boys (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.61 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Vélez Sársfield v Arsenal de Sarandi (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.31 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread hi bagzi, im wondering whether we could have a separate thread for each weekend of the Arg Prem please, it would be far more convenient than keep having to find the current page of what could soon be many ? at a quick glance of the above games, so far we've had two Unders from two games this weekend. by the averages system we should expect three of the remaining eight to be overs. at a quick glance, and subject to a bit more studying, these three look risky to bet Under 2.5 : godoy cruz v tigre : both teams are likely to score so there's two goals already to worry about. racing v banfield : altho racing are hopeless at scoring, banfield were awful in all departments in their game against velez last week. as soon as the first goal went in they were a beaten dejected team. i watched the entire 90 mins, it was a mircale they only conceded four goals. my thoughts here are that if racing are going to break with tradition and score more than two goals in a game then they won't get a better opportunity based on last weeks evidence. velez v arsenal : velez were very good last week, last two occasions this fixture has been played 3-0 and 3-1. i'd expect velez to score at least two based on last weeks viewing and possibly by half time. this game should be well worth watching. more later.

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread I will post my free preview tomorrow. For today I hope my team, San Lorenzo, to grab at least a point so the +0.25 @ 1.83 is my bet. Argentinos's offence really poor (2 ex San Lorenzo guys and a 17 years old kid) so if we can show the same attitude as last week a draw is more than possible.

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

I think I will follow you on this bet MNC, but with +0.5 AH. That extra +.25 AH to allow for your possible loss of objectivity, since it is your own club. ;)
First time I trust my team in 2012 so they better show something...
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

First time I trust my team in 2012 so they better show something...
Well I hope more for your sake than my sake that San Lorenzo win - mainly because I've won enough money today to keep me happy and because they are your club that you support! When I was in BA an Argentinian family invited myself and my friend for dinner and they were passionate San Lorenzo fans, so they have some place in my heart!
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Just looked in for a few minutes before bed, Arg Jrs v San Lorenzo has to be a 0-0 staked game to begin with and likely Unders (see Edit at bottom having just seen odds). With Colon Over 2.5 finished just now, that leaves probably two more Overs in the reamaining matches, the Godoy and Velez games the most promising I feel. Racing I'll downgrade to a 2-0 home win now over Banfield. Off to bed now, good luck everyone. Edit : Bet365 being generous with the 0-0 odds, I think not, 6.0 decimal, 5/1. FFS, they're going Under 2.5 @ 1.36, has anyone ever seen 1.36 for Unders ? That is pathetic. Just checked the odds on Betfair and they're not much better, 1.45 for Unders. I can't see how anyone can justify taking those. 7.2 on the 0-0.

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Edit : Bet365 being generous with the 0-0 odds, I think not, 6.0 decimal, 5/1. FFS, they're going Under 2.5 @ 1.36, has anyone ever seen 1.36 for Unders ? That is pathetic. Just checked the odds on Betfair and they're not much better, 1.45 for Unders. I can't see how anyone can justify taking those. 7.2 on the 0-0.
This is what I was saying to you the other day. With this league being so underish, you can't just bet the UNDER 2.5 with odds 1.40-1.50 because if you use flat stakes and lose one you will need to win 2 or 3 to recover! If you want to continue betting on OVER/UNDERs Maybe you should start taking different lines, UNDER 2.25 or UNDER 2 like it's offered in asian bookies.
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Well I hope more for your sake than my sake that San Lorenzo win - mainly because I've won enough money today to keep me happy and because they are your club that you support! When I was in BA an Argentinian family invited myself and my friend for dinner and they were passionate San Lorenzo fans, so they have some place in my heart!
You should have followed my +0.25 ! :) I've learned along the years to not be biased about my team, and like I told you it was the first time I was trusting them. I almost cried at the end, we really really needed to win this one. I will post my free preview later today !
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread MNC, good morning from England. I'd never seen below 1.50 on Betfair for Unders on any game in the world until last night. Bookmakers must be getting fed up with paying out so many wins on this league. I see your boys managed a win, although only by the customary one goal ! Just noticed Colon must have scored another goal in the last few seconds in their match as it was 2-1 when I looked around 91/92 mins. I might have a look at the Asian lines Unders but not until I'm up and running again with adequate funds. Being very disciplined at the moment due to biz commitments. Frustrating yes when I'm calling so many correct but plenty of time in the future.

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Free preview from my blog: http://bit.ly/AtHFbB Racing -0.75 @ 1.90 or for those that want to risk a little more the -1 @ 2.30 could be a good option. Cheers!
I 100% agree with your assessment. This Banfield team is woeful. Only worry is Racing have yet to score under Basile. Surely they'll do so today however.
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread I can't watch another game today, having just watched the entire Cardiff Liverpool final from start to finish, nothing is going to even begin to match the entertainment witnessed this afternoon. That match was phenomenal, I'm gutted Cardiff lost. I can't make head or tail of the AH tips above for Racing at the moment, but surely it must be a home win, borderline Under/Over. Godoy Tigre Overs. Anything else I can' think straight, was so wrapped up in that final. Did you boys see it ?

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

I can't watch another game today, having just watched the entire Cardiff Liverpool final from start to finish, nothing is going to even begin to match the entertainment witnessed this afternoon. That match was phenomenal, I'm gutted Cardiff lost. I can't make head or tail of the AH tips above for Racing at the moment, but surely it must be a home win, borderline Under/Over. Godoy Tigre Overs. Anything else I can' think straight, was so wrapped up in that final. Did you boys see it ?
Very harsh on Cardiff wasn't it! Liverpool were horrible as usual. Great game to watch though. :ok Racing 1-0 up early in the game! :clap Edit: or.... 1-1 even, but now Banfield down to 10 men.
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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread FFS, I've just noticed that, not watching but I'm keeping an eye on the stats on Bet365. Banfield are crazy, they finally manage to score a goal and its at Racing, then go down to 10 men at 34 mins and have had 2 more players booked in quick succession. They've had over 50% of their team booked by the 41st minute, thats a hell of an achievement. Are you watching ?

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