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Bagzi

By Bagzi
in Argentinian Football Predictions

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H_E_M_P_E_S

H_E_M_P_E_S

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Newell's Old Boys – Belgrano Belgrano is a team who come from primera B division....and they played on 08.03 in Copa Argentina with Independiante in guests and after that they played on 11.03 with San Lorenzo at home. I think is mission impossible for Belgrano...they have not potential of that. Newell's Old Boys – Belgrano 1 @ 2.25 3/10

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MNC

MNC

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Newell's Old Boys – Belgrano Belgrano is a team who come from primera B division....and they played on 08.03 in Copa Argentina with Independiante in guests and after that they played on 11.03 with San Lorenzo at home. I think is mission impossible for Belgrano...they have not potential of that. Newell's Old Boys – Belgrano 1 @ 2.25 3/10
Sorry, I saw your preview too late...what did you mean with mission impossible and they have no potential ? Potential for what ? It was a 0-2 and awful game by Newell's... :(
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MNC

MNC

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread I think no one ever wrote here about Argentina 2nd division so I will leave a few tips on today games: I was ready to skip Instituto - Rosario, 1st vs 4th in the league and really a very important game that should be fun to watch, but odds on Instituto -0.25 raised to 2.30 and this is a bet i have to take. 12 undefeated games for them at home (won 8), none lost this season. Rosario is a good, intense team but Instituto can win it, no doubts. The other two games, Defensa - Desamparados and Atlanta - Patronato I'm ready to go for the OVERs 2. Odds dropped a little, but I'm ready to get those very low lines that don't make sense as you can see by stats. Atlanta and Desamparados have to take risks or they will relegate, Defensa has the league's top scorer and has scored at least 1 goal in 20 of 22 games this season. GL !

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MNC

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread 1 Won (Instituto easy 3-0 winning from the 13 seconds!) 1 Void (Defensa won 2-0 since the 55th minute and couldn't score one more in the last 35 minutes) 1 Lost (Atlanta got a red card in the 20th minute and held to the 0-0) Small profit, could have been better...

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MNC

MNC

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Independiente - Arg Jrs looks like classic 0-0 potential.
Yes, but I have a feeling it will be OVER 2 i took it at 2.13 and it crashed to 1.78 Risky bet, I don't recommend anyone to follow me :P
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betty68

betty68

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

1 Won (Instituto easy 3-0 winning from the 13 seconds!) 1 Void (Defensa won 2-0 since the 55th minute and couldn't score one more in the last 35 minutes) 1 Lost (Atlanta got a red card in the 20th minute and held to the 0-0) Small profit, could have been better...
Congrats MNC., PBN is not easy for betting Personally I took early Central +0.5 1.87 and I am more than happy with my pick. The match was played in the Olympic stadium so even less home advantage for Instituto. Instituto was 1-0 up after 13 seconds following a defensive blunder (and Rc is one of the best sides in PBN as for defense), more RC was one man down after three minutes (controversial ref call) Instituto play good football but I think they have luck on their side this season I follow PBN It would be nice to read your opinion here.
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MNC

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Congrats MNC., PBN is not easy for betting Personally I took early Central +0.5 1.87 and I am more than happy with my pick. The match was played in the Olympic stadium so even less home advantage for Instituto. Instituto was 1-0 up after 13 seconds following a defensive blunder (and Rc is one of the best sides in PBN as for defense), more RC was one man down after three minutes (controversial ref call) Instituto play good football but I think they have luck on their side this season I follow PBN It would be nice to read your opinion here.
Thanks. I forgot to say that Central's best striker and top scorer was out due to flu an their best player was the one that got the very early red card.
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MNC

MNC

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread I've posted the weekly free preview in my website if you want to check it. The game is the big Santa Fe derby between Union and Colon, and my bet is Colon DNB which is currently available @ 2.08. GL ;)

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Nervous Anorak

Nervous Anorak

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

M, I just found the weekend of no draws, it was 26th to 30th November 2010. I was interested to see what happened the week after that, the results are shown below. As we can see, 2 x 0-0 and 1 x 1-1. 5 x BTTS Yes / 5 x BTTS No 5 x Under 2.5 / 5 x Over 2.5, but that season the averages were 59% Under / 41% Over. In the Apertura just gone it was 64% / 36% There's now 10% more Draws, 10% less Home wins than there was back then. With that in mind, I would suggest we can expect 3 or 4 Draws this coming weekend to correct the balance, and even at a glance I think I can see the likelihood of a minimum of 2 x 0-0. Here's the results from 13 months ago that followed the No Draw weekend : [TABLE=class: table_content] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left fixtures_datetd]01/12/2010 21:00 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_matchtd]Olimpo vs. Arsenal [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd]1:1 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd][/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_commenttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right fixtures_statstd] [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left fixtures_datetd]03/12/2010 21:10 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_matchtd]All Boys vs. Banfield [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd]2:1 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd][/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_commenttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right fixtures_statstd] [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left fixtures_datetd]04/12/2010 01:15 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_matchtd]Racing vs. Gimnasia LP [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd]2:0 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd][/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_commenttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right fixtures_statstd] [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left fixtures_datetd]04/12/2010 22:10 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_matchtd]Estudiantes LP vs. Argentinos Jrs [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd]3:1 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd][/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_commenttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right fixtures_statstd] [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left fixtures_datetd]05/12/2010 00:15 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_matchtd]Colon vs. River Plate [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd]1:2 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd][/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_commenttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right fixtures_statstd] [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left fixtures_datetd]05/12/2010 21:00 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_matchtd]San Lorenzo vs. Newell's OB [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd]0:0 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd][/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_commenttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right fixtures_statstd] [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left fixtures_datetd]05/12/2010 21:00 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_matchtd]Tigre vs. Huracan [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd]3:1 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd][/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_commenttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right fixtures_statstd] [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left fixtures_datetd]05/12/2010 23:10 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_matchtd]Godoy Cruz vs. Velez S. [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd]0:4 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd][/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_commenttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right fixtures_statstd][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left fixtures_datetd]06/12/2010 01:15 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_matchtd]Boca Jrs vs. Quilmes [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd]1:0 [/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_resulttd][/TD] [TD=class: fixtures_commenttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right fixtures_statstd] [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottomleft fixtures_datetd]06/12/2010 02:10 [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottom fixtures_matchtd]Lanus vs. Independiente [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottom fixtures_resulttd]0:0 [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottom fixtures_resulttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottom fixtures_commenttd][/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottomright fixtures_statstd][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
With 9 games played this weekend we have 4 draws as suggested, 2 of which were 0-0 as suggested. If you'd bet on an EVEN number of goals on every match, level staked, you'd have 7 wins, and 2 losses that leave a profit of 3.81 units at odds of 1.83 on each, which is about what it would be on Bet365 as a quick example. If you'd bet DRAW at odds of 3.20 on each (I think they're low on Arg), that would give you 4 wins and 5 losses therefore profit of 4.00 units, of course any lower than 3.20 and it comes out near enough level. Worth considering betting EVEN number rather than DRAW as I've had good results that way in the past. Quick thought for tomorrow nights game, there was no match with exactly 3 goals in the 9 played so far, the long term stats usually supply one each week.
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MNC

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Hey, good analysis. I'm definitely not a fan of "stats betting" because surprises in this league can destroy you. Last round there were no draws, now Independiente-Argentinos and Union-Colon were big overs, while Velez was a 0-0, but good luck with it :) Unfortunately my Colon DNB bet was VOID. They had the game under control with a first half 2-0 lead but the derby ended 2-2. :(

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Nervous Anorak

Nervous Anorak

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Hey, good analysis. I'm definitely not a fan of "stats betting" because surprises in this league can destroy you. Last round there were no draws, now Independiente-Argentinos and Union-Colon were big overs, while Velez was a 0-0, but good luck with it :) Unfortunately my Colon DNB bet was VOID. They had the game under control with a first half 2-0 lead but the derby ended 2-2. :(
M, when Colon went 2-0 up, I know you had the safety of the draw, but did you think about splitting your winning position somehow, especially as the Lay odds on Colon (not to win) would have been quite low around 45 to 60 mins before Union scored their first goal. Or if you haven't got Betfair account, on another site you could have Backed the draw whilst it was still 2-0 so you then had profit on the Draw, and also for safety put a cover on the Union Home Win. Another option would have been put something on Union to Score 2 or more goals at the time. I realise you might not have expected another 2 goals in the game anyhow due to such low scoring averages in this league.
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Nervous Anorak

Nervous Anorak

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Quick thought for tomorrow nights game' date=' there was no match with exactly 3 goals in the 9 played so far, the long term stats usually supply one each week.[/quote'] Looking interesting at half time : Olimpo 1 - Rafaela 1 What the................1-1 at 95.14, then penalty Olimpo, 2-1, full time whistle at 96.15 This has to be one of my favourite shouts ever. Calling these pretty well aren't I ? Was the match as dull as this suggests : 46 mins corner, 47 mins corner, 5 bookings after that then just the penalty. Did anything else happen in the second half ?
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MNC

MNC

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread I was on OVER 2 @ 2.02 so had the VOID since the 1st half and a nice win in the end. Still not sure about stats, sorry. You could have won a bet here and it was good analysis, but once again there were lots of early goals this round and the 0-0 betting you usually like would have been a disaster like last week.

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Nervous Anorak

Nervous Anorak

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread As you know I'm not actively betting at the moment due to biz commitments, but heres a typical insight into what I was doing in the Apertura, this is roughly how I would have bet this weekends fixtures. On some I would have watched the game, others not : I thought there'd be 2 x 0-0 remember as I said in my posting in the week : Newells Belgrano £5 on 0-0, nothing else, lost Banfield Godoy No bet because Godoy rarely do 0-0's and this could be a tricky one to call All Boys Velez £5 on 0-0 and trade out around 80 mins on this one, won 0-0 FT Indep Arg Jrs £5 on 0-0 lost San Martin Estud £5 on 0-0 lost Santa Fe Colon £5 on 0-0 lost San Lorenzo Boca £5 on 0-0 lost , £100 on Under 2.5 won Arsenal Racing minimum £10 on 0-0 as this one looked likely to be a real stinker with plenty of negative action ! won 0-0 FT Also cover the stake with 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, and £100 on Under 2.5 won Tigre Lanus As we already had 2 x 0-0 I would only put £2.50 on 0-0 Olimpo Rafaela Something small on the 0-0 as part cover lost, and in play maybe Lay the Draw (for the game not to be a draw) when it was still 1-1 around 80th minute because I was confident this game could have 3 goals on my averages system FT 2-1 won I reckon there's around £200 clear profit there overall and only two of the bets were for big sums. It pays to wait for the first few results to come in before placing the following matches. I maintain M, the statistics/probabilities in this league are so reliable, proven again this weekend.

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MNC

MNC

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Ok, next week let's do it "LIVE", not with the results already decided. You know it's not the same to analyse with the results on the table "what you would have done" than really doing it under some pressure. :) Maybe you convince me. Also watching the game could make you make mistakes. For example Arsenal should have been leading 2-0 by HT and I'm sure you would have traded your 0-0 for a smaller profit. Olimpo-Rafaela looked like a draw in the last 20 minutes, almost nothing happening until the 94th minute penalty. Even if you had done all this (I'm not really sure you would bet 0-0 in a Velez game and a big amount of your profit comes from laying the draw in a game that had a goal in the 95th minute) you would be mostly recovering what you lost the previous week when there were no draws and no 0-0, right ? So in the long run maybe it's not profitable despite a good week.

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Nervous Anorak

Nervous Anorak

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread I wouldn't bet every game 0-0, only those I thought were a good chance. The idea is to increase your stake the longer there has not been a 0-0 if the game looks a good possibility. I have bet Velez in many games 0-0, usually Away at the very dull teams or a few at Home. Last season, the one I had a big win on was Velez - Boca. There was another game for Velez at home which I think was Santa Fe (?) I only used a small stake and traded out around 88 mins, there was a run away goal almost last kick of the game for Santa Fe, Velez battered them in the second half, 0-1 FT If you check my info above on the Arsenal - Racing 0-0, I would also cover 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1 with stakes that covered the £10 on the 0-0. So any of those 3 scorelines would get the £10 stake back. I don't bother covering £5 stakes and under, there is no need because I always win them back in the long term, I kept a separate spreadsheet for Argentina so I know. Trust me, I had good profit from Argentina in the Apertura once I had refined my strategy of not trying to bet on every game. I'm not going to watch all the games M, too many are poor and you need to remember the time difference in the UK, some of your games start at 02.00 hrs UK time, so they finish around 04.00 hrs. I would only trade out a 0-0 if I was within 70% of the maximum win, if it was a £5 or under stake then higher than that. EDIT : Don't forget, the previous week, there was no 0-0, but two of the games had a goal around 85 mins if I remember rightly ? On those two you could have traded out for profit by then. Wasn't that the week when Arg Jrs won with almost the last kick of the game ?

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Bagzi

Bagzi

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Friday 9 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Colon de Santa Fe v Newell's Old Boys (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.47 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Saturday 10 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Estudiantes de La Plata v CA Lanus (00:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.06[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.04 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Argentinos Juniors v San Martin-San Juan (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.13 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Racing Club v CA All Boys (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.08[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.10 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Sunday 11 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Belgrano v San Lorenzo (00:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.23 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]CA Banfield v CA Tigre (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.12 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Godoy Cruz de Mendoza v Arsenal de Sarandi (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.88 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Atlético de Rafaela v Unión de Santa Fe (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.57 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center]maximize.gif[/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Boca Juniors v Independiente (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.79[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]103.67 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Jase82

Jase82

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread A bit simple and an obvious bet this one.... Colon V Newell's Old Boys UNDER 2.5 goals @ 1.5 - BET365. There have been eight draws in the last twelve head to heads between these two sides, and the last eight fixtures have ended with fewer than three goals. Colon have only had two games go under this season, yet went over at home versus Olimpio who have been pretty over'ish this season. Newells have gone under in all four of their fixtures this season, only managing to score twice.

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MNC

MNC

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Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Unbelievable. Two goals in the last few minutes. One in the 96th minute :\
Yes, you've been very unlucky :( but if you saw the game you know it could have been OVER earlier, both missed some big chances, especially Colon.
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