BBOTD 1st Feb

[chris34]

5.20 Kempton Decent looking handicap for the grade with no shortage of pace with Megalala an out and out front runner with Peponi and Buxfizz all likely to be ridden fairly prominent. Focail Maith appeared to run a career best on the back of solid efforts this winter last time out, the form of that race not worked out that great and it was a falsely run race with a slow time and will need another career best in a much stronger race under a 6lb penalty. King Of Windsor comes from a stable that does well with other yards cast's off and he ran an encouraging effort last time out on first try at this trip again it wasnt the truest run race so does still have stamina to prove at this trip, up a 1lb for that and now makes debut for new yard and looks likely to find one or two too good again. Buxfizz won a seller on penultimate start in good style, he was well in at the weights that day if putting his best foot forward, was sold to another stable after that win but was a no show back in a handicap at the weekend and is left proving something now. Megalala is unlikely to get a soft lead in this field especially coming from stall 9 and looks plenty high enough in the weights at the moment. Peponi has been consistent but generally well held, handicapper dropped her 2lb for recent uninspiring run and now has stamina to prove stepped up in trip. Lisahane Bog landed a big gamble back in November in a race which was rather gifted to him the way in panned out and has since struggled off an 8lb higher mark, handicapper finally dropped him 2lb but never one to trust but should get a good gallop here if anywhere near his best. Edgeworth is a reliable yardstick around the AW circuit but he is making his reappearance rather later than most and will perhaps need the run and has done most of his winning in much weaker races. So that leaves The Mongoose who has made an encouraging start for his new yard in stronger races than this, did the best of those held up last time out and despite being 1lb higher should make a bold bid with an assured decent gallop here and top AW jockey booked and Evans yard in good form. 1pt win The Mongoose 11/4 vc

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb Best of luck everyone. *Tamareen - Kempton 7:20* Has the plum draw in Stall 1 tomorrow and the Richard Fahey stable has been in great form over the past couple of weeks. This horse has had 3 runs at Kempton resulting in 1 win and 1 place. Tamareen is a C+D winner and its last run was very good, just failing to beat Woolfall Sovereign. From that race, Pick A Little who was in 4th that day came out and won today and Punching who was behind came out and ran well today too. Tamareen is a strong traveller, and with this plum draw should be able to make it count, and also has a 5 pound claimer on board to make life that little bit easier. It should go close for sure. *1 Point WIN @ 11/2 VC BOG*

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb going to make a effort to post as much as i can , think i only had 2 last month.. 4.05 downroyal - Fickle Fortune 1pt win sp not very original but when meade and nina team up in a bumper i have to take notice . At course over last 10years they have combined 13 times with a record of 4-4-3 in flat races although 7-2-4 out of 33 for all other jockeys isnt that bad a statistic either. This filly has yet to experience any form of racing , be it or ptp or under rules as of yet , but is a sister to 3 winner bumper runners ( 2 won on debut , other on 2nd start) and related to two more who also won a bumper after having an outing. Field looks weak and most have trainers havent had a bumper winner in their careers so im hoping meades shortie can get feb rolling

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 15:30 Leicester Painter Man Win (3,00)PaddyPower Won over course and distance in his latest run. Are up 7lb but whit a 9l win, he could still improve. He generally looks like a strong jumper and got a decent speed. There are some strong horses in this field and he properly need to battle it out against Big Easy. The slow ground could be to his advantage, since he previous done well on a heavy going.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 3.30 Leicester Numide 0.5pt EW @ 20/1 Ladbrokes I am going to go for another big priced runner today with a similar profile to that of Hobbs Dream. The big difference with this one is the trainer form. Rod Millman is not in very good form at the moment and his flat runners have been very poor. He doesn’t have too many runners over jumps but this horse has won for him in the past and he looks well treated here if able to rediscover his old form. Numide has not been in the best of form in recent starts but was a winner twice last year in January and March. His first win last year came at Ffos Las over this trip where he won off a mark of 120 at a massive price of 25/1. He then ran 2 good races in better company before winning again over this distance at Bangor. That day he was rated 125 so today’s rating of 119 looks workable. Since returning from a few months off the track in September he has had a couple of runs on the flat where he showed nothing. They then tried him in grade 3 company at Chepstow where he finished 11^th of 18 and then he has had 4 more efforts in handicap company where he has been well beaten. His latest start came in a very good race in Taunton which was won by Ranjaan but there were many decent animals in this race and he was simply outclassed. The combination of the shorter trip and the quicker ground may have also been factors for him running so poorly but all of these poor runs, means his handicap mark has come down from 130 to 119. He is now 6lbs lower than when winning at Bangor less than a year ago and could be ready to strike now dropped in grade. He does however face a couple of comfortable last time out winners who could both prove tough to beat. Big Easy won very nicely at Doncaster on Saturday and wasn’t asked too much of a question so he should be fine for this. The race he won that day was more competitive than this but the ground will be very testing at Leicester and this race may come too soon for him. I wouldn’t want to be taking short odds on him. Same can be said about Painter Man who won over CD last week. He won easily but idled near the finish and the heavy ground may have taken plenty out of him. This represents a step up in grade for him and he has never won off mark this high before. He is a 10 year old and has not had much racing so he must have been difficult to train. I wouldn’t want to back a horse with his profile on heavy ground just a week after looking very tired when finishing off his race. That being said, either of them 2 could bolt up in this race but I don’t fancy them at the prices. As for the rest of them, Arbor Supreme is well handicapped on his chase form but that’s where I would want to see him. I couldn’t have Glenstal Abbey at all and Accordingtolawrence is too unpredictable. His trainer is in great form but the horse can’t be trusted. I don’t think Teshali will appreciate the testing conditions as he was pulled up last time out on his first encounter of heavy ground. Tom O’Tara will handle the ground but has been off for 307 days and has suffered due to his consistency. His last win came off a mark of 90 so is still 16lbs higher. The trainer of Numide is actually the top trainer at Leicester on the flat so it is quite interesting they have brought Numide to this track as he doesn’t have many jumpers here. Johnny Farrelly rides the horse in this race and he has partnered him plenty of times in the past, winning twice on him. He is a hold up horse so I think this smaller field will suit him as he won’t be able to get himself detached at the back like he has in some of his more recent races. Numide definitely has the talent to win this race; it’s just a matter of him putting in the effort.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb Kemp 6.50 - Berlusca - win at 6/1 I think Whipcrackaway is a false favourite here (well, he's favourite at the moment, not sure he will be by tomorrow !) Drops in trip having looked like he needed every yard of the mile last time, he's also up in class and up in the weights The two I fancy are Tenbridge and Berlusca Tenbridge ran well over CD last time and the form has worked out with the fourth and fifth winning since. He's gone up a couple of pounds and he's still a maiden Berlusca looks like it's been crying out for a step up in trp having been a bit outpaced in it''s last couple of runs over 6F. Ran quite well here last time behind a well fancied one, getting outpaced in rear then running on late I'm finding it difficult to seperate the two horses - speed figs are about the same. I just think that Berluscxa is the most likely to improve on what he's done to date with the extra furlong whereas the run last time might be the best that tenbridge has to offer.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 5.20 Kempton - King Of Windsor - 9/2 VC Big value in this one i think, the form of his third lto is stronger than anything else in this race and he has some classy form to his name, 3/4 lengths behind Emerald Wilderness who's gone on to win a class 2 handicap. Open to improvement over this trip and in much weaker company now down in grade. Joined a very capable yard who do well with these sorts and Jim Crowley booked turning up for one ride and knows the horse well.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 7:20 Kempton - Last Sovereign Won first time out in blinkers and is having them reapplied today after two races without. 14 AW races, 6 places. Gotta be worth an ew punt. 16/1 ew - paddypower

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 1:40 Ludlow - Creekside - Back Was a very smart performer on the flat and ran some cracking races at Listed and Group level for John Oxx. Not many flat horses that run at that high a level end up over hurdles so his switch was interesting. He justified favouritism lto when winning nicely, beating 2 solid opponents relatively easily in the process (first 3 well clear). He left a favourable impression and hasn't had hs sights set too high here and I fancy him to follow up 1pt win @ SP

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2.40 Ludlow - 1pt win Hazy Dawn @ 14/1 (PP) Have to take a bit of a leap of faith with this horse, but it isn't a strong race, this, and she can take a hand off a dropping mark if bouncing back to form. She showed promise in bumpers and won her hurdling debut over 2 miles on heavy ground at Plumpton (rallying well). Put in a decent effort trying to give weight to horses rated around 110 and above in cases next time and at Chepstow, and looked as if she needed to go handicapping really. She's related to numerous winners around this trip and even above, so hopefully things are fine on that scale. Didn't run very well on her return to the track this season, on her handicap debut, but shaped with more promise when trying to make all over the extended three miles at Taunton 2 starts back when 6th. Dropped out over a similar trip on deep ground last time but I can forgive her a bad run given the nature of low-grade animals and she's been dropped 10lbs by the handicapper for two runs since getting her mark. This track looks sure to suit better, and like I say, this is weak. The relatively small yard of Michael Scudamore are seeing their horses go well of late, and the very interesting jockey booking of Richard Johnson stands out. Johnson is 2-4 on runners for the yard in the last 5 years and it's possible that they expect an improved run from this mare today.

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 13:20 newcastle BOURNE @sp WIN this horse has only taken two starts over obstacles but he started with a win and not discrased in 3rd last time out in what i think to be tough company for the ability of this horse , i have selcted him i think he possibly shows some value considering he realy outclasses everyhting here , the 5 and 8 horse represent the greatest threats . the trainer is in great form and the jockey is flying and riding realy well . runs top rating and weight must go well !

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 7.50 Kempton Pastoral Jet 1pt win @ 9/2Bet365 I want to take on the serial loser Blueberry Fizz who always seems to find 1 or 2 too good. This is as low as they get in terms of class and the field does not look too inspiring but I think Pastoral Jet has a great chance here. He is well drawn in 5 and goes for a trainer in great form at the moment. Horses from both codes are running well from this yard with 2 from 4 on the flat. I thought it was a cracking training performance from Richard Rowe to get Tatenen to win at Ascot for the 2^nd year running. His horses are clearly thriving and I don’t think Pastoral Jet has much to find anyways. There wasn’t much between Jackie Love, Blueberry Fizz and my selection in a similar contest over CD back in December but Pastoral Jet is better off at the weights with both of them. Luke Rowe takes off a handy 7lbs again and he has ridden this horse on every career start. He has shown improvement since being sent handicapping and I fancy him to strike here with the stable going well. There doesn’t look to be much else in terms of opposition. Lovat Lane could run well for Chris Catlin and possibly Tawseef could go well. This is low grade stuff however so it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if an outsider was to go and win. Blueberry Fizz is rightfully the favourite but at 7/4 he looks far too short.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb N2.20 Karrical 0.5pt E/W 12/1 Bet365 I'd be amazed if Karrical had shown its true ability thus far and I think there's every chance that it will step up on previous efforts today in its handicap debut. The 16/1 put up initially has long gone and I think this could start a single figure price which is another clue as to improvement being expected. The rest look a moderate bunch and McCain is a shrewd operator - he also boasts the best strike rate at the track. He's also got one of the better claimers on board for the ride and headgear is applied for the first time today, which again is possibly a statement of intent.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 1.50 Newcastle Super Baby is very well handicapped here and the jockeys claim makes him a very appealing bet. Dropped in trip after a couple of decent runs over further and has run well in his only run here. Was much higher rated in the past and although he has only one chase win to his name this must be his best chance to double that in a long time. Stable firing at the moment and may try to win this from the front. 1 pt win 11/2 Bet365

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb

2.40 Durbanville (SA): Lord Paramount @ 9/2 sportingbet Really interesting runner who is lightly raced and unexposed over today's trip. He won well over 1.400m in December. He raced in rear of the field, showed some good cruising speed and quickened well in the closing stages. He wasn't that good lto however, finished only fourth 3 lengths beaten. Today the step down in trip. 1.200m are sure to suit. Jockey booking of F. Coetzee looks crucial as he rode the horse not the last time but in the race before that Lord Paramount won so well. He has also a fantastic strike rate of 35% with Trainer Dean Kannemeyer this season. So LP should have a big chance today.

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 1.05 Down Royal Follow Down Royal On Facebook Handicap Chase 3m MISTER FIRST 4/1 bog (Ladbrokes, Bet365, Boylesports) An interesting handicap chase opens today's meeting at Down Royal. In my opinion two horses stand out of the 13 runners: Mister First and Profit Margin. Both are available at 4/1 and are the market leaders at the moment. My choice goes to Mister First because the French-bred 6yo trained by Robert Alan Hennessy seems to me more able to improve since his last runs and on board he gets again Andrew Lynch while Profit Margin has Mr Quinlan but the main reason is their line with Sumkindasuprstar that raced twice against Profit Margin in his third and second last start and last time against Mister First. In the "matches" with Profit Margin Sumkindasuprstar comfortably beat him 4 3/4L when they finished first and second in a 20f Hcap Chase on Heavy ground at Limerick on Boxing Day with Sumkindasuprstar carrying 2lb more than Profit Margin. The second time has been the last race ran by Profit Margin three weeks ago at Fairyhouse a 21f Hcap Chase on ground Soft/Heavy Sumkindasuprstar had to carry 9lb more and finished just third behind the winner Profit Margin who beat his rival this time by 6L especially thanks to a better finish. Mister First met Sumkindasuprstar in his last race ran at Limerick one week ago, it was a 3m Hcap Chase on Heavy ground, the first ever handicap chase for Mister First and the first time Andrew Lynch was in his saddle. Eoin Doyle's Come To The party (now rated 123) won that race with Mister First second 7L behind the winner and Sumkindasuprstar third 19L behind my selection carrying just 5lb more than Mister First. Hard to give a strong value to the lines of the horses racing for the first times in handicaps but still that puts my horse well ahead of Profit Margin in my opinion and that was only his first ever handicap chase. Surely the trip is not such a big advantage for my selection as Profit Margin never raced over 3m while Mister First did it in his last race and very well as written above but Profit Margin will surely enjoy the step up in trip as he stayed very well in both his last two starts improving a lot from the previous one also for the longer distance. Profit Margin is an improving type as well as Mister First, both won PTP at the start of their career and both are lightly (actually Profit Margin will have his 7th start chasing and Mister First his 4th). Profit Margin has a better curriculum over hurdles but I rate Mister First able to more improvements handicapping and so far he jumped better than Profit Margin who was quite lucky last time out when he had a bad blunder at the first fence but escaped the fall to go on winning. Moreover Mister First's OR has gone up 5lb after his debut in handicap chase while Profit Margin has to face a 9lb raise after his last win. A close match between these two but I'm happy to side with Mister First's chances with Andrew Lynch on board. Of course there are 11 horses against these two and few of them stand their own fair chances but I rate their chances all way smaller than the two market leaders.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 5:20 Kempton: Edgeworth 1pt win 25/1 Bet365 Edgeworth had a very good winter last year, winning races on the all weather from 62 up to 74. He lines up here after an unproductive turf campaign on a mark of 66. On the down side he does have a long lay off to contend with and all those wins came at Lingfeld, however on his first all weather run for David Bridgewater this ten furlong specialist looks worth chancing at this price, especially with claimer taking a further seven off.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 1:35 Down Royal - Soll - Back Was an extremely good hurdler and his debut over fences was highly anticipated. He didn't disappoint as although he got beaten, he ran a screamer and was only denied by a potentially smart winner. He would have gone into many a notebook that day despite defeat, and a reproduction of that run should see him win this as it's a weaker race 1pt win @ 4/11 Paddy Power BOG

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 1.50 Newcastle - Strathaird - He's been in good form lately under today's 10lb claiming jockey with three rides and three places including a win. He's won twice over the distance and shouldn't be inconvenienced by the going today. The favourite, Hole In One and Strathaird have both collateral form with Tipsy Indian and Prince Tam here, while Tipsy Indian has finished ahead of both Hole In One and Strathaird his current form looks scrappy and he may be in decline and really needs to improve today. The line through Prince Tam is interesting as both the favourite and Strathaird have both previously finished ahead and both look to be ahead today in the weights, but the finishing distances between each pair suggests that Strathaird may be better in at the weights with Hole In One today.

1.50 Newcastle: Strathaird - 1pt win @ 5/1 Coral

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 3.20 Newcastle: Tap Night (5/6 Bet365, Lads) I have Tap Night 7pts clear on my ratings despite the penalty so on a poor days racing he'll do for me. Peter Scu rates this one highly and was placed three times at Perth last season, i had thought he was maybe disappointing the connections at that time but has come out this season and won a handicap at Carlisle in good style. He won that off 110 and is now rated 125 so back to novice hurdles where he is much better off for now with the opposition. Micky Hammonds Falcun is the danger but he's rated 110 and only gets 7lbs here and is a long standing maiden so shouldnt be good enough here.

[daftpegasus]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb Been following the BBOTD for January regularly so decided to have a go myself. 16:50 Kempton Sailing North e/w (40/1 @ Bet365) The price and recent form of this horse give it no chance but there are a few things that make it worth a punt IMO. Firstly Luke Morris rides it. Luke has a good record at Kempton winning or placing 33.33% of his runs here.. The Trainer also is a bit of a Kempton specialist with an even better win/place strike rate here. He's drawn low which should help. His only other run at Kempton was a year ago and he lost by a head with Morris on board that day. Considering he's as low as 20/1 at some bookies I think 40/1 each way is a little bit of value

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 1720 Kempton - Edgeworth - 33/1 - VC, Ladbrokes & Hills - 0.5ew Have thought long and hard and if this one wins without my interest I'd be, 'On Tilt' for at least a month. By no means the most likely winner of the race but the front 3 (particularly like King Of Windor) have been over bet and as a result Megalala, Linsane Bog and Edgeworth look very big now. Edgeworth has a break to overcome but has good from over 10f on the AW and these is his first start for new stable on this surface. Has gone well fresh in the past. The best race he has run was when Majuro set off at a ridicuous pace at Lingfield - as he does - giving Edgeworth somethng to aim at. He reeled him in and with perenial front runner, Megalala set to make the running as well as potentially being taken on there could be a fast pace to this race. Claimer takes off more weight. Stable is useless on the flat - 1 from 50 or something stupid like that last year. This does feel like a donation to Mr Bookmaker but it's just too big!!

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb Sorry for Edit - missed word written in rush! Still makes little sense but prices all still there! Good Luck everyone.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 1.20 - Newcastle - Hada Men 1pt win @ 11/2 Bet365 BOG I'm going to give Hada Men a chance on his return to hurdles after completing a Hat-Trick on the AW last month. He didnt run too bad bad on his hurdling debut last year when 5th to Ockey De Neulliac and after his recent successes i'm hoping he can return much better for it. Main danger will be Bourne, Donald McCains 6yo won at Catterick in December but was a dissapointing 3rd lto, 19L behind the eventual winner.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 7.20 Kempton Tamareen - ran well behind Woolfall Sovereign last time and that horse has won at Southwell since, beating the prolific Even Stevens. Returns to 7f now and has a good record over this trip. Inside draw helps, just a shame Hanagan isnt on. 9/2 VC, 1 pt win

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb SNAPPING TURTLE 3.20 Newcastle. 0.5 points each way. Needs to find more, but the ground should suit much better today and interesting that he goes hurdling so quickly. The trip shouldn't be a concern and I get the feeling much better is expected today. Double figure odds (exchanges) and well worth a pop in what's not a strong looking race. 12/1 Bet365 BOG

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb

2.40 Durbanville (SA): Lord Paramount @ 9/2 sportingbet Really interesting runner who is lightly raced and unexposed over today's trip. He won well over 1.400m in December. He raced in rear of the field, showed some good cruising speed and quickened well in the closing stages. He wasn't that good lto however, finished only fourth 3 lengths beaten. Today the step down in trip. 1.200m are sure to suit. Jockey booking of F. Coetzee looks crucial as he rode the horse not the last time but in the race before that Lord Paramount won so well. He has also a fantastic strike rate of 35% with Trainer Dean Kannemeyer this season. So LP should have a big chance today.

Yeah! Won veeeery well. Went away from the field in closing stages so easily. Fanstastic. Great ride by Coetzee as well. Sorry, I'm a bit excited. Was a really important one for me.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb Milan's Man 3.50 Newcastle. 1 point win. Pulled up the last twice, so a dodgy betting proposition, but at the same time has dropped to an appealing mark of 98. The trip and ground's not a concern and if he can find something like what's expected of him, then no reason why he shouldn't go very close. Going to bounce back sooner rather than later, so let's hope it's today. Jockey takes another 5lb off, which can only help. If he wants it, he can win this. 16/1 Sporting Bet.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb

2.40 Durbanville (SA): Lord Paramount @ 9/2 sportingbet Really interesting runner who is lightly raced and unexposed over today's trip. He won well over 1.400m in December. He raced in rear of the field, showed some good cruising speed and quickened well in the closing stages. He wasn't that good lto however, finished only fourth 3 lengths beaten. Today the step down in trip. 1.200m are sure to suit. Jockey booking of F. Coetzee looks crucial as he rode the horse not the last time but in the race before that Lord Paramount won so well. He has also a fantastic strike rate of 35% with Trainer Dean Kannemeyer this season. So LP should have a big chance today.

Well done mate. Our resident SA racing expert!

[corky]

Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 1720 kempton 1 pt win focail maith 11/2 bet365 a winner last time out over course,but a furlong shorter today 6lb extra for that win,same jockey,alan kirby, and won well, shorter trip may just help