antogz Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Sorry Addpea picked you up wrong regarding Wiggins and the climbing. He was indeed the 2nd best climber on this Tour. I still think there is plenty of evidence suggesting Froome could have won this. Today he could easily have taken up to 40 seconds off Wiggins and more an La Toussaire. Your forgetting Froome can ride at a steady pace as well, but he has that explosiveness that Wiggins doesn't have. Your joking surely on the Contador thing. Contador would have this Tour won at this stage, last year he was coming off the toughest Giro in history in which he dismantled the field. It was going to be impossible for him to win the Tour which he found out. The year before Schleck was at his best and your forgetting Schleck at his best in the mountains is a level way above Wiggins will ever be. If Contador was in this Tour and he attacked, Froome or Wiggins wouldn't have been anywhere near him. I think you are overestimating Wiggins big time here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 I dont think I am overestimating Wiggins. Given the shape of the Tour it was pretty much impossible for him to lose as long as he didnt get injured. Although I didnt think it pre Tour I actually think he would have gone very close to winning it last year given the way the race panned out. In my view Contador's worse Tour 'win' was in 2010 where he really looked to be hanging on. Its one of the reasons Im not sure he was cheating as he wasnt as good as the year before. Maybe time will tell Wiggins had little to beat here but bar Froome has has proved he is in a different league to the rest. Depending on what price he was I probably would have backed Wiggins to beat Contador this year. In my view Schleck certainly wasnt going to win. I will say this though. A Wiggins win is fantastic for British cycling and because of his Olympic history he is a household name in this country. Before this Tour only a cycling fan knew who Chris Froome was and even during the Tour there seems to be little mention in the general media that Froome is also a Brit. Basically what I am saying is a Froome win would not have made as much of a big splash here as a Wiggins win will and I certainly think that was part of Sky's thinking in having Wiggins as number 1. I must admit that even I would have been disappointed if Froome had won and Wiggins hadnt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Well if Wiggin's winning increases liquidity then that might be something to take from his win. Still not sure I think he fully deserves the yellow jersey. Over everyone but Froome he does, but for me Wiggins never did anything special to win this race. Full credit to Sky though - they fully deserve everything as a team, their efforts this tour have been umm, sky high. As for tonight, I think a break will probably win as I don't see Sky chasing for Cav, and GreenEdge look disinterested. As such, watch the sprint finish happen. Anthony Roux @ 150 Betfair Love his sprint finish to win from a break composition and think it's his turn to try tonight. Hard to tell given FDJ have so many break contenders but on this parcours I think Roux holds the value. George Hincapie @ 100 I like backing retiring riders on the final flat break stage of the team. Something I've done since Axel Merckx went close a few years back and for me George is the big rider who fits this criteria. Julien Simon @ 120 Betfair Just like the odds on a guy with a fast finish who should be looking for a break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 I think a break away will stay away. Gerrans has to be in this, he has done **** all this Tour. The profile will suit as well. Grivko at 80/1 PP looks appealing as well, if he can get into the break. Nuyens at 100/1 is my other pick Saxo will certainly have men in the break, again profile should suit. Gerrans 25/1 generally Grivko 80/1 PP Nuyens 100/1 PP ALL E/W Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Well if Wiggin's winning increases liquidity then that might be something to take from his win. Still not sure I think he fully deserves the yellow jersey. Over everyone but Froome he does' date=' but for me Wiggins never did anything special to win this race. Full credit to Sky though - they fully deserve everything as a team, their efforts this tour have been umm, sky high..[/quote'] In my view what he did in the time trial was something special. He blew everyone away including Fab. He then did all he needed to do in the mountains and it really isnt his fault that no one was capable of attacking. I suspect he will be out to ram home his advantage tomorrow as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 That was amazing from Cav probably his best win yet at the Tour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Yep, incredible win. He must have started going at 400m to go and just kept sprinting to the next guy ahead until he found something again to make them all look like they were in slow motion. Fantastic stage as well, lots of potential scenarios in the closing kilometers and a real nail-biting finish. Easily the most exciting stage so far, shame there hasn't been a few more like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Two downsides to him winning today are I wasnt on at 10/1 for him to win and it will ruin the price for Sunday's stage. Interesting to hear afterwards that Lotto were saving themselves for Sunday. Once it was clear it might be a sprint then they obviously did try and get Greipel involved but it seemed almost half hearted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
best mate Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Been off-line for most of last two days, changing internet and computers and moving house so missed out on Cavendish yesterday although to be honest as it wasn't a real flat stage I'm not sure if I would have backed him although I said I was going to now upto and including Paris. Does anyone know what price he was pre stage yesterday, just curious. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 About 17 with Betfair, but hit about 30 in play. Not sure of liquidity levels though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
best mate Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Two downsides to him winning today are I wasnt on at 10/1 for him to win and it will ruin the price for Sunday's stage. Interesting to hear afterwards that Lotto were saving themselves for Sunday. Once it was clear it might be a sprint then they obviously did try and get Greipel involved but it seemed almost half hearted. He sure will be. Shame though. I'll think I'll just watch today and tomorrow. Greipel would be value tomorrow if we could get say 4/1 but I don't think we will. Suppose Cavendish will be close to Evens. Perhaps for the TT bookmakers should have enticed us with a 1,2,3,4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 Edit Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Cavs price is gone, he is the most likely winner but at that price, couldn't touch him. No e/w value in Greipel either. Of the rest think Haedo at 66/1 skybet makes most appeal for 3rd. I think we could see Vino go for this like 2005, he hasn't the speed this time to win, but if brought someone like Sanchez 150/1 PP or Voeckler 300/1 PP, they might have a chance, will have small bets on these for the craic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
best mate Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 I'm glad I left the TT alone but it was enjoyable to watch. Now 6 minutes plus back to the first non Sky rider in the GC is some domination. I wasn't able to get a good place on Betfair overnight on Greipel but I see literally minutes ago Betfred have pushed him out to 4/1 so I'm going for a 1pt bet each way on that price. They're also with Sagan at 14s which does seem generous, again each way, so for a final afternoon flurry, I'll take that as well. Most likely scenario is the two to chase Cavendish home. I really do think Sagan can place and he will be just as motivated and want to show how close he is to the specialist sprinters. With that in mind I'm also laying Goss for a place at or around evens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Hi i have been following your tips on this forum i was wondering whether it is best to bet before the race starts or bet in play i have been more sucessful betting in play because the better chance a rider might win a stage i know the odds are not as good as at the start of the race but i think your more chance of winning than going for an rider with great odds what do you guys think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Hi i have been following your tips on this forum i was wondering whether it is best to bet before the race starts or bet in play i have been more sucessful betting in play because the better chance a rider might win a stage i know the odds are not as good as at the start of the race but i think your more chance of winning than going for an rider with great odds what do you guys think I think it depends what sort of stage you are looking at. I would say though do what works for you and if you have been making money by betting in play then stick with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
best mate Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Thank you Peter Sagan for helping me get back most of my money today. I messed it up with Greipel and for once Goss showed almost something. I don't know what Cavendish meant at all by being worried about him. That was last year, admittedly. It's been great fun this thread this last few weeks, we should try and keep it going and not just for Le tour. Eneco Tour and Vuelta, anybody? I've really enjoyed the race this year. As I said earlier I'd like to think Sky's new dominance will shake up the other teams and help raise the sport to a new level although they'll need serious money to do so. Disappointing that the rules give Radioshack Nissan the team award as this year if anything we've seen a tremendous team performance by Sky, a relentless slow and steady crushing of all opposition. Six stage wins, by three different riders and the final three stages as well. Cavendish playing a much secondary role and he still wins three stages. Froome looks like he should be a match for any future Grand Tour although the Vuelta may come too soon for him and Wiggins while dominating the TT shows he can't be dropped that easily on the climbs. Shame we had no Contador or Shleck, let's hope they're all fit and able next year. Having those two around will certainly liven up the climbs. Peter Sagan is not only just behind the best sprinters but he can also climb. At the moment he should take any one day classic on offer. Really looking forward to seeing what he can do in the years to come. Greipel doing what Cavendish's old HTC team did so well in the past as well. Added to that Voeckler coming to life for the second part of the race. It seems a long time ago now Cancellara won the prologue. Interesting dilemma for Sky next year if Froome is still with them and there's less TTs and a couple of mountain top finishes at least. I wonder what the strategy will be there then. You'd expect Wiggins to want to defend. Anyway, all for another day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 My biggest bet pre Tour was on Sky winning the Team classification and although I fully accept the way the rules are that Radioshack are the winners like BM I find it really disappointing that they did win as they basically did nothing all Tour and Sky were so dominating. Yesterday Sky took 8 minutes out of Radioshacks lead! The Tour is 100 next year so almost certain we will see more climbs and I cant see Wiggo following up and I think it will all be for Froome next year with Ski. Also like BM I have really enjoyed the thread this year, its been great to have some healthy debate (I did try and tell you all Cav was a great price to get to Paris) and some winning tips along the way as well. I usually feel down after the Tour ends but not this year with the Olympics starting next week and I will be on Box Hill for the Road Race on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Just to say that there is a thread in the Olympic section on here for the Road Race and a seperate for the track action so we can all put our thoughts on them in there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mirage Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 I've enjoyed reading this thread over the last few weeks - very informative and a lot of sensible discussions. Good stuff guys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Well done on Sagan BM, and on picking Cav to finish Addpea. Certainly been my worst tour in a long while but at least Rolland ensured it wasn't too bad. Must say too I was very wrong about Wiggins. I have to give him credit for his tactical strength and it was great to see him lead out Cav today. For me the constantly Froome following sort of diminishes it a little, but I'm sure he wont care at all, and nobody out of Sky really deserved to come close. Bit unlucky on the Sky team classification bet too. Had RSN had an actual leader to look after I've no doubt Sky would have pissed it in. Fully looking forward to a Froome v Contador battle next year, they are both very similar riders who are strong in the ITT and can really accelerate in the mountains. In the mean time though, Vuelta is only a month or so away. See you guys then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Yes CP you are probably right about Radioshack. They were all riding for themselves and that meant they did enough to beat the last Sky man. It was the Sunday stage before the first time trail that did the damage as the 3rd Sky man lost a lot of time. Also in the end I think Jens Voigt and Fab probably were big factors as well as one gained time in two attacks and the other was obviously high up in the first time trail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Thanks guys, really good thread, much appreciated for the effort you put in.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Eneco Tour started today, but unfortunately Bet365 weren't offering ew bets on either the stage win or the overall. Not sure why really, but disappointed as a bet might have made the dull stage today a bit more exciting. The TTT is tomorrow though, so the lack of an ew option doesn't matter so much. Going for Katusha (101 with Bet365). There haven't been that many TTTs this year so far, in fact the only ones I remember are Qatar, TA and the Giro and in two of those Katusha surprised me with their strong performance. It seemed to me that they had been working on getting the most out of the team event - no doubt they didn't want J-Rod to lose much time at the Giro. The team that is at Eneco thankfully contains quite a few of the workhorses that got them these good results at Qatar and the Giro - people like Smukulis, Brutt, Kristoff and Ignatiev. If you add Spilak to that list and take into account that they don't have to babysit J-Rod or Dan Brown, I feel the price should be a bit shorter, maybe less than 50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Two seconds away from the win. Leading at the intermediate split, but OGRE and OPQS just beat them at the end. Still no ew option on Bet365, so probably no more bets till San Sebastian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leadbelly Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 The problem (or good thing depending on which way you look at it) with one day classics like San Sebastian is that there are always loads of guys at 100+ odds who you could quite easily convince yourself have decent shouts at a win or getting placed at least. The difficulty lies in selecting one or two to have an ew bet on, but let's have a go at getting some riders with the ability and form. Nocentini (101 ew with Bet365) has had a good year. Was having a gander at his results for the year on CQ and it's quite impressive actually. Lots of top 10 finishes in stage races and a run of 9th, 12th and 11th in the Ardennes classics (so the 230+ km shouldn't be a problem). His recent form is good with a 6th place finish in the overall at the ToP. Nordhaug (101 ew with Bet365). Maybe a bit more risky as he's likely to be playing second fiddle to Uran, but he showed decent form in the Olympic RR where he made the front group and rode aggressively, and was active in the ToP working for Henao. Was unlucky in the Ardennes to get side swiped by Cunego at AGR where a podium might have been on and the injuries sustained hampered his efforts in the FW and LBL. Devenyns (201 ew with Bet365) seems to like San Sebastian. Fifth last year and 27th and 14th in the preceding years. Was fairly anonymous in Eneco, but still managed 22nd overall. Might have to work for Chavanel or even Stybar, but to me his previous record on the same course indicates he might be a better bet. For instance Zubeldia who also does well at SS is priced at only 34. Might be back later if any more prices get put up or if some riders drift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Haven't time for a big write up. Uran at 9/10 for a top 10 finish with bet 365 is the bet of the year. He is in super form and will be well able for the climbs. My other big bet is Rodriguez top 3 at 11/8 with PP. With only one TT and some lovely finishes that suit him, it's hard to see him not in the top 3. He is a better climber than everyone bar Contador and with this been a climbing Tour, it;s hard too see him being out of the top 3. Contador at 3/1 to win the KOM looks a good bet as well. I can't see Moncoutie getting the points needed. Contador is the best climber and should gather the points necessary. 5 pts Contador win KOM 3/1 Sportingbet 10 pts Uran top 10 9/10 bet 365 8 pts Rodgriguez top 3 11/8 Paddypower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
best mate Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 Just can't see JJ Cobo not being in the mix and with the doubts about Contador, just coming back, and Froome, the last 6 weeks must have had been both a physical and mental sapping. Not saying either can win, of course they could, Contador could destroy them comfortably, but at 22/1 Bet 365, each way 1/5 odds, 1, 2 & 3, I'd rather have that value with Cobo. 44s on Betfair but you'll suffer reduced place prices, currently around the 4.8/4.9 marker. The Tour De France was only an outing for him to keep ticking over. Most are writing his chances off because of that poor Tour performance, although his win last year in the race is being ignored as if it was a fluke, but he's said himself this is his main target for the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 I'm taking a chance on Degenkolb at 6's on betfair for the win. It all depends on the leadout train, but i think he has just the same chance as the favourite Swift. Rojas has a good chance as well at 16/1. The finish is a false flat which should suit him. The 16/1 is way too big Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Re: Cycling 2012 I'm taking a chance on Degenkolb at 6's on betfair for the win. It all depends on the leadout train' date=' but i think he has just the same chance as the favourite Swift. Rojas has a good chance as well at 16/1. The finish is a false flat which should suit him. The 16/1 is way too big[/quote'] Degenkolb won. I think Rodriguez will win today. The finish suits him perfectly. Valverde looks his main danger but he should be able to out sprint him to the line today 5 pt win Rodriguez 3.05 on betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.