Tennis: Australian Open 2012

[fishy25]

May as well get this thread open for the first slam of the year. For the first time in a while we have a potential semi of Nadal-Federer whilst Murray has a really tough quarter with Troicki, Monfils, Simon and Tsonga all in that 2nd quarter with Djokovic likely to await the winner in the semis. Will post the draw up now and then bets away :ok Novak Djokovic SRB (1) Paolo Lorenzi ITA Santiago Giraldo COL Qualifier Tatsuma Ito JPN Potito Starace ITA Nicolas Mahut FRA Radek Stepanek CZE (29) Milos Raonic CAN (23) Filippo Volandri ITA Lukas Rosol CZE Philipp Petzschner GER Cedrik-Marcel Stebe GER Lleyton Hewitt AUS Robin Haase NED Andy Roddick USA (15) Janko Tipsarevic SRB (9) Dmitry Tursunov RUS Qualifier James Duckworth AUS Mikhail Youzhny RUS Qualifier Andreas Seppi ITA Richard Gasquet FRA (17) Juan Ignacio Chela ARG (27) Michael Russell USA Igor Kunitsyn RUS Pablo Andujar ESP Matthias Bachinger GER Ryan Sweeting USA Rui Machado POR David Ferrer ESP (5) Andy Murray GBR (4) Ryan Harrison USA Xavier Malisse BEL Edouard Roger-Vasselin FRA Michael Llodra FRA Ernests Gulbis LAT Daniel Gimeno-Traver ESP Alex Bogomolov Jr. RUS (32) Viktor Troicki SRB (19) Juan Carlos Ferrero ESP Guillermo Garcia-Lopez ESP Mikhail Kukushkin KAZ Thomaz Bellucci BRA Dudi Sela ISR Marinko Matosevic AUS Gael Monfils FRA (14) Gilles Simon FRA (12) Qualifier Julien Benneteau FRA Karol Beck SVK Joao Souza BRA Matthew Ebden AUS Stephane Robert FRA Kei Nishikori JPN (24) Marcel Granollers ESP (26) Jesse Levine USA Frederico Gil POR Ivan Dodig CRO Qualifier Ricardo Mello BRA Denis Istomin UZB Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (6) Mardy Fish USA (8) Gilles Muller LUX Alejandro Falla COL Fabio Fognini ITA Albert Montanes ESP Pere Riba ESP Philipp Kohlschreiber GER Juan Monaco ARG (25) Florian Mayer GER (20) Yen-Hsun Lu TPE Qualifier Steve Darcis BEL Qualifier Blaz Kavcic SLO Adrian Mannarino FRA Juan Martin Del Potro ARG (11) Alexandr Dolgopolov UKR (13) Greg Jones AUS Tobias Kamke GER Victor Hanescu ROU Kenny De Schepper FRA Sam Querrey USA Bernard Tomic AUS Fernando Verdasco ESP (22) Jurgen Melzer AUT (31) Ivo Karlovic CRO Carlos Berlocq ARG Qualifier Eric Prodon FRA Andreas Beck GER Qualifier Roger Federer SUI (3) Tomas Berdych CZE (7) Albert Ramos ESP Olivier Rochus BEL Qualifier Sergiy Stakhovsky UKR Qualifier Qualifier Kevin Anderson RSA (30) Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (21) Benoit Paire FRA Marcos Baghdatis CYP Benjamin Becker GER Jeremy Chardy FRA Grigor Dimitrov BUL Lukasz Kubot POL Nicolas Almagro ESP (10) John Isner USA (16) Benjamin Mitchell AUS Jarkko Nieminen FIN David Nalbandian ARG Flavio Cipolla ITA Nikolay Davydenko RUS Leonardo Mayer ARG Feliciano Lopez ESP (18) Ivan Ljubicic CRO (28) Qualifier Qualifier Donald Young USA Tommy Haas GER Qualifier Qualifier Rafael Nadal ESP (2)

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Fired away with one early straight away :p Dimitrov to beat Chardy @ 1.85 with Bwin This needs to be taken straight away, as the line is a complete nonsense. Chardy is struggling, Dimitrov on the rise and there is a huge gap of class between the two. Dimitrov is an upcoming top 30 player (at least), while Chardy is just going down and down through the rankings.

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 For the WTA lovers, here's the draw for the them as well :ok Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) Anastasia Rodionova AUS Ashleigh Barty AUS Anna Tatishvili GEO Pauline Parmentier FRA Alla Kudryavtseva RUS Alize Cornet FRA Monica Niculescu ROU (31) Lucie Safarova CZE (24) Christina McHale USA Qualifier Marina Erakovic NZL Qualifier Petra Martic CRO Qualifier Jelena Jankovic SRB (13) Kim Clijsters BEL (11) Qualifier Stephanie Foretz Gacon FRA Elena Baltacha GBR Arantxa Rus NED Lesia Tsurenko UKR Qualifier Daniela Hantuchova SVK (20) Anabel Medina Garrigues ESP (26) Eva Birnerova CZE Patricia Mayr-Achleitner AUT Olga Govortsova BLR Sofia Arvidsson SWE Olivia Rogowska AUS Ksenia Pervak KAZ Na Li CHN (5) Victoria Azarenka BLR (3) Heather Watson GBR Casey Dellacqua AUS Bojana Jovanovski SRB Anne Keothavong GBR Mona Barthel GER Ayumi Morita JPN Petra Cetkovska CZE (32) Flavia Pennetta ITA (19) Qualifier Alberta Brianti ITA Irina Falconi USA Iveta Benesova CZE Mathilde Johansson FRA Aravane Rezai FRA Shuai Peng CHN (16) Francesca Schiavone ITA (10) Laura Pous-Tio ESP Anastasiya Yakimova BLR Romina Oprandi ITA Kimiko Date-Krumm JPN Eleni Daniilidou GRE Polona Hercog SLO Julia Goerges GER (22) Yanina Wickmayer BEL (28) Galina Voskoboeva KAZ Tsvetana Pironkova BUL Sania Mirza IND Qualifier Simona Halep ROU Bethanie Mattek-Sands USA Agnieszka Radwanska POL (8) Vera Zvonareva RUS (7) Alexandra Dulgheru ROU Evgeniya Rodina RUS Lucie Hradecka CZE Ekaterina Makarova RUS Tamarine Tanasugarn THA Johanna Larsson SWE Kaia Kanepi EST (25) Dominika Cibulkova SVK (17) Magdalena Rybarikova SVK Rebecca Marino CAN Greta Arn *** Iryna Bremond FRA Barbora Zahlavova Strycova CZE Tamira Paszek AUT Serena Williams USA (12) Sabine Lisicki GER (14) Qualifier Shahar Peer ISR Isabella Holland AUS Sloane Stephens USA Silvia Soler-Espinosa ESP Chanelle Scheepers RSA Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS (18) Angelique Kerber GER (30) Bojana Bobusic AUS Stephanie Dubois CAN Elena Vesnina RUS Mandy Minella LUX Qualifier Gisela Dulko ARG Maria Sharapova RUS (4) Samantha Stosur AUS (6) Sorana Cirstea ROU Qualifier Urszula Radwanska POL Qualifier Sara Errani ITA Qualifier Nadia Petrova RUS (29) Roberta Vinci ITA (23) Alexandra Cadantu ROU Madison Keys USA Jie Zheng CHN Jelena Dokic AUS Anna Chakvetadze RUS Virginie Razzano FRA Marion Bartoli FRA (9) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova RUS (15) Klara Zakopalova CZE Kateryna Bondarenko UKR Vania King USA Kristina Barrois GER Michaella Krajicek NED Lourdes Dominguez Lino ESP Ana Ivanovic SRB (21) Maria Kirilenko RUS (27) Jarmila Gajdosova AUS Shuai Zhang CHN Aleksandra Wozniak CAN Irina-Camelia Begu ROU Carla Suarez Navarro ESP Vera Dushevina RUS Petra Kvitova CZE (2)

[IAmGooner]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Was hoping to get on Tomic in some capacity vs Verdasco, like a + game or set handicap. But he's 1.61 to bt Nando @ Paddy Power........:lol....Verdasco is horrid at times lately but I thought his name might influence the odds somewhat.

[Fader]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Waiting on the odds to appear on Oddschecker for the womens but one bet I have taken early is : Kanepi to win outright @ 23/1 I think Kanepi is in fantastic form. I watched her win the Brisbane and completly blitz Hantuchova and that's no easy feat. She looked like she would break into the top seeds in previous years, but just recently she looks like really having the game and serve to be able to compete. I'll also be looking at Quarter bets for her and perhaps Na Li who also has some good form to her name.

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 I'm going to kick off with a couple of outrights for the men. Rafael Nadal to win Australian Open- 7/1 Coral- (2/10) E/W After seeing the draw for the top 4, I've fallen slightly in love with the Spaniard's draw. There's no Murray or Djokovic or Tsonga even in the bottom half of the draw, whilst Federer and Del Porto aren't in Nadal's quarter either so where this price has come from I'm not sure. I'm guessing it's ultimately down to the form that Rafa has shown towards the back end of last season and at the start of 2010 but I don't go along with that. Granted he was comprehensively beaten by Ferrer, but in truth I don't really pay much attention to that tournament as it's the first of the year. Now although Monfils beat him in Doha, I felt there were signs that Nadal was starting to discover some form. His forehand wasn't as effective as it can be, but his backhand impressed me and it looked a lot more assured I felt. Now if he can get some wins under his belt and gain some confidence, without the likes of Djokovic and Murray to worry about, we could see him go well I feel down under. As I've said, his potential route to the semis looks pretty appealing. I have it down as something like Qualifier/Haas/Ljubicic/Isner/Berdych. Whether he will even have to play Haas or Isner I'm not sure as both players' haven't been great so far in their early matches, whilst I'm not even convinced by Ljubicic or Berdych at the minute and from the head to head, Nadal shouldn't be worried about either guy if he has to play them. Now if he gets to the semi finals like I expect him to, it will either be Federer or Del Porto you think, I personally favour the later there but I'll come to him in a sec. I don't know what kind of shape Federer is in ahead of the Aussie Open and with him having that back problem, how much that will hold him back I'm not sure so feel there's a risk there with Roger. Now Del Porto could be the first test Nadal faces if the two meet in the semis. The Argentinian has had Nadal in trouble both at Wimbledon and in the Davis Cup last year so that certainly won't be easy but I'd still fancy Nadal to win again there. Then the final, many fancy it to be Djokovic and that's hard to argue with given how the Serb has played over the last 12 months or so but Murray's draw may well suit the Brit. He will have to beat some tricky opponents to reach the semis, not least Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but the thing with Murray is he will usually play his best tennis when playing the top players so his draw may well bring the best out of him. You'd still have to back Djokovic though and no doubt the Serb would be favourite but Nadal will want revenge for last year, as he lost all 6 matches against Djokovic, including 2 on clay as well as the final at Wimbledon and at the US open. Thing with Nadal and grand slams is you just can never write him off and a lot of people are doing that this year which I feel is a dangerous thing to do. We've seen him raise his game when it really matters and no question he will want to prove that he still right up there with Djokovic. His draw doesn't loo particularly taxing and that should give him confidence, so I'm happy to take a punt on the Spaniard winning his first slam since the French last year. Juan Martin Del Porto to win Australian Open- 20/1 Coral- (1/10) E/W My other outright is going to be in the hands of the Argentinian who I feel is due a really good grand slam run. He failed to make it past the third round of any of the slams last year but I feel after having a year on the tour back under his belt, he is in a better position this time around. He was actually pretty unlucky with his draws last year, getting Baghdatis early on in here 12 months ago which is never easy early on, whilst he was beaten by Simon at the US open but that was an extremely tight match. The thing I liked though were the signs and promise that Del Porto showed that made me think that a really good slam is just around the corner for him. He gave real problems to Nadal and Djokovic at Roland Garros and Wimbledon and with his draw this year, he shouldn't be fearful of anyone until perhaps the quarters if not semis. His potential draw looks something like Mannarino/Kavcic/Mayer/Fish/Federer/Nadal. Now I wouldn't be worried about any of his potential first or second round opponents, although Mannarino may be competitive but he doesn't have any weapons to trouble Del Porto. Mayer is never easy to play but whether Del Porto will actually have to is dubious. He was struggling with a groin injury so he may not even get to the third round but I wouldn't worry too much with the German never one to really perform in the slams and Del Porto should have far too much there. Now Mardy Fish in the quarters could be the first test for our man here but I'm not the biggest fan of the American away from his native courts. He usually shows he best form later on in the season over in America, and he hasn't made it past the third round of the Aussie Open since 2007 so I'd favour Del Porto once again there. Now Federer in the quarters will be where most expect him to fall but I'm not convinced. I think out of the top 4, Federer is the one who is at most risk of falling before the semis. Over in Doha he withdrew due to injury before facing Tsonga, and even against Seppi he just didn't look right as the match went on so this back problem may be more of an issue than he first showed and Del Porto could well expose that if he faces the Swiss. Fed will definitely have to play either Tomic or Dolgopolov you feel as well which won't be easy so it will be interesting to see how he goes against either of those guys. Like I say though, I think the bottom half semi draw will feature Nadal and Del Porto. That will be a potential laying opportunity but if this does happen, I won't be doing that as I see it more of a 55/45 sway in favour of Rafa so either guy could win. Del Porto has troubled Rafa big time last year and he may be due a win over the Spaniard. Either way though, if the two guys meet in the semis, then we'll be guaranteed a final spot and as we know anything if possible in the final so I'm happy to back Del Porto to fire hot over the next couple of weeks at these odds which looks high to me.

[bigson22]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Fishy, done Del Potro as an outsider for the Aust. open myself, was very impressed with him in the Davis Cup final and he looked to be back to his best. Although he lost to both Ferrer & Nadal he could have easily won both matches on another day and I immediately backed him at 25-1. The draw was fortunate for him avoiding bigs guns such as Novak, Murray, Tsonga etc and agree with you that I think if he gets Rafa he will beat him. His loss to Baghdatis in Sydney surprised me, i must admit I never saw it, but would put it down to rustiness with it being only his 2nd match this year and Baghdatis had already played 5 hard matches. Was thinking of backing Murray outright as he finished last season well before his injury at the O2, already has a title under his belt and out of the big 4 I would say he is most in form. However I don't like the look of his draw and this has given me reservations???? Decisions Decisions??? Still think i'll back him with Bodog @ 6-1!

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012

Fishy, done Del Potro as an outsider for the Aust. open myself, was very impressed with him in the Davis Cup final and he looked to be back to his best. Although he lost to both Ferrer & Nadal he could have easily won both matches on another day and I immediately backed him at 25-1. The draw was fortunate for him avoiding bigs guns such as Novak, Murray, Tsonga etc and agree with you that I think if he gets Rafa he will beat him. His loss to Baghdatis in Sydney surprised me, i must admit I never saw it, but would put it down to rustiness with it being only his 2nd match this year and Baghdatis had already played 5 hard matches. Was thinking of backing Murray outright as he finished last season well before his injury at the O2, already has a title under his belt and out of the big 4 I would say he is most in form. However I don't like the look of his draw and this has given me reservations???? Decisions Decisions??? Still think i'll back him with Bodog @ 6-1!

That loss to Baghdatis doesn't really put me off as he is a tricky opponent to play at the best of times and always seems to bring his game for the better players. I was tempted by Murray but the fact he'll have to play Djokovic in the semis puts me off a bit. As I've said though, he usually needs that kick up his arse to perform well in the slams and his draw may well just do that. Personally staying clear of that top half though.

[Alovenac]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 During the Qualies of the AO2012 i picking with a roi off 127.3%. I hope to continue this during the tournament. Qualies: 2/10 Gojnea tb. Pavlovic @ 1.80 Stan James 3/10 Panova tb. Riske @ 1.83 William Hill 4/10 Sugita tb. Kuznetsov @ 1.83 William Hill Early odd: 5/10 Dimitrov tb. Chardy @ 1.62 Unibet

[PerryPFC]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012

During the Qualies of the AO2012 i picking with a roi off 127.3%. I hope to continue this during the tournament. Qualies: 2/10 Gojnea tb. Pavlovic @ 1.80 Stan James 3/10 Panova tb. Riske @ 1.83 William Hill 4/10 Sugita tb. Kuznetsov @ 1.83 William Hill Early odd: 5/10 Dimitrov tb. Chardy @ 1.62 Unibet

Any reasoning for these Alovenac?

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Guys can we have some reasoning behind everyone's bets? Don't know if it's just me but whenever I come into the forum and see just a bet without any explanation, it just strikes me as completely pointless. If someone wants to follow, why would they just place the bet purely because it's been stated in the thread? Just a couple of lines make a huge difference and you don't need to go on for hours upon end like I do. If you don't want to explain your bets, you should just have your own thread in the Glory Hunters Section. If not, feel free to write them but give a little reasoning behind the bet. Anyways that's my rant over, here's to a profitable tournament :ok

[danytz186]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012

Sport	Tennis
Event	Andrea Hlavackova - Caroline Garcia
Selection	1
Strength	10/10
Date	14/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.93
Reasoning	In the 3rd round of the Australian Open qualifiers will bring forward Andrea Hlavackova from the Czech Republic and Caroline Garcia from France. Garcia ranked 134th in the world is what you may call a rookie, very little experience at the big level and just by looking what she played so far she is better on hard surfaces. Her first tournament of the season was the ITF Quanzhou where she reached the semifinals losing to the veteran Date Krumm in straight sets. This is the 2nd time she is here in Melbourne at the Australian Open, first one was last year when she reached the 2nd round beating lefty Lepchenko in the first. This year she is in the qualifiers where she allready gone through Rampe and Brengle so far. On the other side we have another young player, Hlavackova who is ranked 116th in the world in singles and 14th in the world in doubles where she plays with her countrywoman Hradecka. Despite prefering doubles for singles she played some last season and finished with a 12-8 record on hard, winning an ITF title and just like Garcia she managed to reach the 2nd round at the Australian Open after beating Mayr in the first. In the first two round of the qualifiers she beat Kucova and Glushko in straight sets. Odds have jumped for Hlavackova lately and I don`t really know why, what I know that she`s got much more experience at the big level then Garcia and that things she plays in doubles could help her today as well. Win Andrea Hlavackova.

[slider24]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Yeah Agreed Fishy. It has become more prominent since the start of the new season, and I tend just to scroll through when tips have no reasoning. No reasoning, no resonance for me. Tipping can be somewhat instinctual and not based on logic so with those bets it's best just to leave them off the forum. Like me doing a Levine/Dubois double ;)

[Alovenac]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012

During the Qualies of the AO2012 i picking with a roi off 127.3%. I hope to continue this during the tournament. Qualies: 2/10 Gojnea tb. Pavlovic @ 1.80 Stan James Great odds for Gojnea. She won her first two matches easy in straight sets. Her opponent Pavlovic had two very long matches. I think Gojnea can win this in 2 sets. But maybe in 3 with a fysical lead from the last 2 matches :). Added 2 extra stakes! ***ADDED*** 2/10 @ 1.75 William Hill 3/10 Panova tb. Riske @ 1.83 William Hill Panova a few places higher on the WTA list then her opponent. But Panova have a better gameplay then Riske. Panova plays very nice against Kanepi in Brisbane last week, lost in 3 sets but she had chances to win. Panova won her first two quali matches in straight sets and play very well. 4/10 Sugita tb. Kuznetsov @ 1.83 William Hill Sugita make a very good impression the last 2 weeks. Kuznetsov won yesterday against Schuettler, but the German (Schuettler) is not what he was before. Very good odds for de ML here. Early odd: 5/10 Dimitrov tb. Chardy @ 1.62 Unibet Great value, i can't say anymore. Dimitrov had more quality than Chard. Now i gonna wait on some asian lines.

Editted! With a little write up :).

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Like this from the early markets too, not sure whether I would be able to get better price closer to the event with it. Nalbandian to beat Nieminen @ 1.77 with Pinnacle Looked good against Murray in the exhibition match and is obviously the better player. Also has a lot of motivation in Grand Slams and Nieminen will be a bit tired after that run in Sydney. He will get some rest, but he has played quite a lot of tennis there and seemed to be struggling with a few niggles.

[Alovenac]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Good end of the Qualies, dramatic night. Two voids by Gojnea, luckbox.

[JusticePunting]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 I have three bets here so far for the Australian Open. Llodra to beat Gulbis @ 2.38 with Pinnacle - 3 units - (6/10) Llodra looked good in an exhibition match with Dolgopolov, who obviously had a great week in Brisbane, possessing solid groundstrokes, motivation and good fitness. His H2H match-up on HC with Gulbis is 1-1 with Llodra retiring back in Montreal. This bet is mainly against Gulbis, who's only won 2 of his last 10 matches (losing to Rosol, Bolelli and a few out of form players like Youzhny and Querrey) and only winning 1 of his last 8 matches in Grand Slams. I expect Gulbis to be too inconsistent over 5 sets so I like these odds. Nalbandian to beat Nieminen @ 1.709 with Pinnacle - 2 units - (7/10) Nalbandian is a great player who played well against Murray at Kooyong. I think Nalbandian can beat Nieminen anyway but this bet is especially lucrative as Nieminen is currently in the singles and doubles finals in Auckland which is being played tomorrow. He has a few injury niggles and will be very fatigued which makes me question his desire and ability to play five sets against a player of Nalbandian's standard. Lu to beat F.Mayer @ 2.58 with Pinnacle - 2 units - (4/10) Mayer has picked up a relatively problematic hip flexor injury and is lacking fitness. Mayer himself said "he [Lu] is a ball machine and exactly the wrong opponent for my level of fitness. But I will try everything to win." Mayer still has to be slight favourite but Lu will know the deal and will make this match very long if possible. This is more of a gamble but I see value here providing Lu can exploit Mayer's fitness weakness.

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 :welcome CultofTennis. Was thinking about Lu myself considering Mayer's dismal record in grand slams. Probably wait until the handicap lines are about. GL with your bets though :ok

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Any regulars to the grand slam tennis thread will know how I have a tendency to take the following bets. Now I have never ever called one of these right in this market so let's hope 2012 can break that curse. Milos Raonic to reach the last 16- 5/6 Sportingbet- (3/10) The young Canadian really shot to fame at last year's Aussie Open and given the conditions of the court it's easy to see why. His bullet serve and powerful forehand are one of the best in the game, whilst his backhand and consistency has developed and improved as last year went on. He didn't end the season as well as he would have liked but he's already kicked this year off with a tournament win in Chennai where he beat Tipsarevic in the final which should have given him confidence coming into the slam. He made the fourth round last year so he has plenty of points to defend this time around and looking at his draw there's no reason why he can't repeat his performance from 12 months ago. His route to the fourth round looks something like Volandri-Petzschner-Roddick, although his third round opponent could be any one of three guys out of Roddick, Hewitt or Haase. I'd probably favour Roddick out of those 3 but whoever it is, I'd make Raonic favourite. Now he's had the experience of playing on the ATP for a year, he should really fancy his chances of going into the second week of a slam and I fancy him to do just that down under this year. Aleksandr Dolgopolov to reach the last 16- 5/6 Sportingbet- (3/10) Another guy defending a ton of ranking points is the Ukrainian as he made the quarters in 2011 so he'll know he has to have a decent tournament here to maintain his ranking. His draw to me looks a pretty good one until he perhaps faces Federer but I don't see him getting beat before then. His route will most likely be Jones-Hanescu-Tomic as I don't see Verdasco beating the Australian. He could be the first test for Dolgopolov but given the Ukrainian has beaten him in all 3 of their recent matches, I see no reason why he shouldn't be able to make it 4 in a row. He'll be favourite for every match and given the points he is defending, I fancy him to go well this week and make the last 16 at the very least. Janko Tipsarevic to reach the last 16- 5/4 Sportingbet- (2/10) Not sure where we are getting odds against for the Serb here but I'll take it. He had a sensational 2011, winning 2 tournaments and getting to various quarter finals and semis as well during the year. There's really not alot to trouble the Serb until a potential 3rd round match against Gasquet as he'll probably have to beat Tursunov and young Duckworth in rounds 1 and 2 which you'd expect him to do with ease. Gasquet actually hasn't got the easiest of draws considering he will have to beat Seppi and probably Youzhny so there's no guarantees he'll even get to the third round. If he did, I'd have the Serb as favourite though to record his first win over the Frenchman. He had little problems over in Chennai until he couldn't break Raonic in the final but he comes into the tournament in good form which he has carried over from last season. He only made the second round here 12 months ago after Verdasco beat him, so in his mind he should be thinking he can gain quite a few ranking points over the next 2 weeks which should keep him focused and motivated. Looking at his draw for the first few rounds I see no reason why he can't do just that. John Isner to reach the last 16- 2/1 Sportingbet- (2/10) Now I'm not sure how big John will fare over the next week or so but these odds look too high to me and strikes me as a bit of value. His preparation isn't ideal coming into the tournament, having been beaten by Bobby Reynolds last week in Sydney but he does usually up his game for the slams. Despite that loss, 2/1 for the big American to win his first 3 matches just stands out to me. There's nobody he can't and perhaps shouldn't beat IMO. It will look something like Mitchell-Nalbandian-Lopez and the threat there is Nalbandian but Isner is fully capable of beating the Argentinian. Both matches between the two players have been close and since making the semis back in 2006, Nalbandian really hasn't done much in the AO. He has been beaten by Lu and Berankis in the past 2 years so Isner shouldn't be fazed by playing him I don't think and there's always a concern with the fitness of the Argentinian as well so there's no guarantees on that front for him. If he does beat him, Lopez could be waiting for him in the third round who like Isner has lost his only match this season and has never gone past the 3rd round at the AO. If Isner beats Mitchell and Nalbandian, he should have some confidence in his game by then and if his serve is working well, he has every chance to beat the Spaniard. The more I look at it this price is too big to pass by in my opinion and I'll back Isner with a small punt here.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Yeah, agree on Nalbandian. Have played 2 already for rd1. Nalbandian to bt Nieminen @ 1.72 (Ladbrokes:6pts) Seems like the ideal spot to play Nalby here, actually I'd probably play him anyway if Nieminen didnt have such a hectic schedule this week. He's already won 7 matches incld. qualifiers in the last week in Sydney with the final tomorrow morning vs Benneteau. Not sure if they'll play Monday or Tuesday, but that is tough going for a man at this stage of his career. H2H has been tough between them, 7-4 to Nalbandian, Nalbandian is not someone I generally trust in slams over 5 sets but you'd have to give him the edge going into this one, better player, should be fresher. Ladbrokes is a one-ball bookie if Nieminen doesnt make it through the whole match. Melzer to bt Karlovic @ 1.625 (Pinnacle:4pts) Not a big fan of Melzer but fancy him to come through this one. He got some good practice in the exhibition this week beating Tsonga, Monfils and losing to Fish in 3. He owns Ivo in the h2h 5-0. Karlovic is getting on now, obviously dangerous with his serve but I dont like him over a 5 set format tbh. Melzer to win for me. GL!....:hope

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 And taken one early for the first round. Lukasz Kubot vs Nicolas Almagro- Tie Break in Match- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) Price should be a fair bit lower by my estimations. I remember watching Kubot come back from 2 sets down to beat Almagro at the French last year in a match where Almagro choked really badly. There were 2 tie breaks in that match on the clay and the harder courts should lead to at least 1 tie break here I'd imagine. Kubot has a big serve and will look to serve and volley a lot whilst he won't do a great deal on return so if he serves well it should lead to some tight sets. In 3 of the 4 matches between these two, there has been a tie break in every match whilst in the other there was a 7-5 which shows how tight this could be. Just to highlight my point further with stats from last year, Almagro was involved in a tie break in each of his first 3 matches before Djokovic dispatched of him. Like I said, I'd have this price down more at 1/2 to be honest so I'll get on the 5/6 given here.

[BobNL]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 I will post some selections this evening, but where is Atko? :(

[fishy25]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012

I will post some selections this evening' date=' but where is Atko? :([/quote'] He's stepped back a bit from PL unfortunately as he hasn't got as much time to add his input as he used to. He's still a regular to the forums though and chips in when he has the time. Is a shame he's not as active though.

[slider24]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Paula Ormaechea to beat Simona Halep @ 9/4 BET 365 Strength (7/10) I'm probably not as confident about this as my stake suggests but what the hell, If you can't have a bit of fun at the start of a Slam, when can you. I do however think this is a 50-50 sort of match and out of all the matches on the women's side that I've scanned, this one sprung out straight away as a potential upset. The young Argentinian Ormaechea has qualified for this event(and her first Grand Slam) at the first time of asking, and on a surface she has barely played on. That is impressive. She absolutely destroyed the capable American Coco Vanderwaeghe in the qualifiers and dropped only one set in her next two matches. She's already well established on clay but in the off-season she has obviously pushed on and is trying establish herself in all surfaces. She has a very compact game and is feisty on court, which isn't too dissimilar to her opponent Simona Halep. Halep has been around for a while despite her young age, but she hasn't really kicked on. If anything she's regressed. She remains very capable on her day but is too prone to checking out in matches when things go against her. She showed that again against Wickmayer last week, losing the second set 6-0 after being upset by a line call in a competitive first set. If Ormaechea starts fast and takes the first set, which with the momentum she's built up is entirely possible, then you wonder how much resistance the Romanian will put up. Regardless, I think a buoyant and in form Ormaeachea is worth a punt here. :hope

[Alovenac]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Okay, i think i made bets tomorrow evening. First value bet: (6/10) Nalbaldian tb. Nieminen @ 1.73 William Hill Nieminen playing two matches tomorrow. Then he will play monday against Nalbaldian. I think Nalbaldian have more quality on this surface then Nieminen and can beat him.

[Psycho]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 So here we go with the first Slam. Have picked out quite a few matches in R1, starting with WTA (obviously) :rollin Petra Cetkovska > Ayumi Morita. 1.88 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Although Cetkovska has not played this year I'm confident she can beat player like Morita. Odds are a bit high on the Czech player here. Big advantage is serve. When it's clickin she can be very hard to break. Cetkovska also has got power on her groundies. Morita has added some power to her game lately but still will be beaten by stronger players most of the time. Cetkovska beat Morita 7(!!!) times in their only previous meeting hammering the Japanese girl 6-2, 6-2 in New Haven last year. Could be very similar outcome this time as well. Petra Martic > Kai-Chen Chang. 1.71 @ Pinnacle (5/10) I'd offer not more than 1.60 for Martic in this match. She's a very tall girl who on her day can strike the ball very nicely. Hasn't play this year yet which is a slight worry but shout figure it out right away. Chang had to play qualies, beat nothing special there, couple of matches needed three sets. In this match-up Martic has definitely got better serve and is no worse in baseline rallies. Perpahs should win in straight sets. Caroline Wozniacki vs Anastasia Rodionova. Under 17.5 games. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (7/10) It's hard to see where is Rodionova going to win games in this match. Wozniacki will defend very well like she always does and Rodionova doesn't have neither power nor brain to beat the Dane. Basically Wozzi needs a fast start. If Rodionova gets behind in matches, she can go missing very quickly. Wozniacki dropped just two games in their only previous meeting. 6-3, 6-2 will be good enough today. Arantxa Rus > Lesya Tsurenko. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Rus has got fine memories about Melbourne. She won the juniors title here back in 2008. She reached 2nd round from qualies last year and generally speaking has got more experience at this level. Rus also has got decent game including good serve. She quite often lets herself down in matches against Top ranked players but playing someone like Tsurenko won't be a problem mentally. I'd take 1.93 on Rus v Tsurenko any time on hard courts. Bojana Jovanovski -3 vs Casey Dellaqua. 1.85 @ Nordicbet (6/10) Dellacqua will have the home crowd support but I'm afraid even that won't help her to win this match. She had a lot of success in Challengers at home at the end of the last year but main tour is completely different level. By the looks of it, she's still not ready for a legit comeback. Jovanovski has got very powerful game and on paper should deal with Casey easily. Like she did couple weeks ago in Brisbane beatin the Aussie 6-4, 6-2. Bojana crushed her 6-1, 6-0 in Wimbledon 2010 in their first H2H match. Anne Keothavong > Mona Barthel. 3.96 @ Pinnacle (2/10) On paper looks like a longshot but I have a feeling this might be one of the R1 biggest upsets. Barthel just won her first career final in Hobart. Will be exhausted both physically and mentally (played eight matches there). Interesting thing here is that these two are doubles partners and quite often in singles the underdog is better than the favorite. They have played 3 times in Challengers last year. Keothavong won two of those matches. Counting on Mona not being in this one mentally after her first career title. Small stakes only, obviously.

[Psycho]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Nikolay Davydenko -5.5 vs Flavio Cipolla. 1.83 @ Bet365 (7/10) Cipolla is one of few Italians who can actually play on hard courts but can't see him getting anything out of this match. Perhaps one set at most. Davydenko should roll over Cipolla with little effort. He beat him 6-3, 6-3 in Montreal last year and I am expecting similar result here as well. -5.5 games is a laughable handicap in best of five sets match. Btw, Davy has got very good draw and could make his last push for a Slam glory if he wants to. I'm kind of serious... Lukas Kubot vs Nicolas Almagro. Over 36.5 games. 1.83 @ Bet365 (5/10) Potential exit for Mugro. He lost an epic five set match against the Pole in French Open last year. She was 2-0 up in that match and a break up in at least two of the last three sets and even serving for the match if my memory is correct. Almagro is a very messy player and could go out here, wouldn't be shocked. I am playing overs in this one only because neither is smart and consistent enough to win in straight sets. Could be a tie-break or two in this one, so betting on a breaker is also a good option. Fernando Verdasco > Bernard Tomic. 2.50 @ Nordicbet (4/10) Worth a shot for sure. Tomic naturally very overrated after some good results but will have huge pressure playing at home with massive expectations to perform well considering that Hewitt is past his best and even past his average. Verdasco is a brainless tennis player but for some odd reason has good results down under. He was in semifinals in 2009 losing an epic 5-setter against Nadal. Verdasco has made to 4th round two times since. 2.50 is too high odds for Verdasco and I will take my chances with this one. Have a few more in mind but there aren't totals and handicaps available yet...

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Taking quite a few of these pre-tournament bets. You know me, so you should not be surprised with those odds. Not sure if I am going to have a lot of match bets, but this will keep me interested throughout the tournament. Only one from ATP, since it basically covers everything. Will the top 4 seeds all reach semifinals? (ATP, AO 2012) - Yes @ 5.00 with Bwin I think that this is a ridiculous price considering that it happens quite regularly and that it would be easy to lay off the danger if something gets dodgy with someone (Federer or Nadal most likely). I would have priced this as 3.50 probably. I know the AO is the place for upsets, but I do not know who the upset could be. At 5.00, I see value. Azarenka to win AO 2012 @ 8.00 with Nordicbet Not really sure why she is at bigger price than Clijsters or Williams after that victory in Sydney. She is the in-form player here, done well historically (bad luck with draws and injuries though), likes the surface, has an easy draw for most of the tournament. What else is there to add? Bartoli to reach Quarterfinals @ 3.75 with Sportingbet Obvious choice for me and if she plays to her Hopman Cup standard, she only has Sam Stosur to fear. Sam Stosur? The one that has been lost to Benesova and Schiavone easily? Yeah, well, she would not be anywhere near 2.00 against her in my book. Otherwise, her road is (likely) Razzano-Chakvetadze-Zheng. Na Li to win Quarter 1 @ 3.17 with Pinnacle Clijsters and Wozniacki are the only real challengers and Wozniacki is probably out, since she still does not know how to play big matches against players that can attack without being ridiculous. Clijsters, on the other hand, does not seem fit and had little match practice before the tournament, which is never a good thing. Kanepi to reach Quarterfinals @ 5.00 with Sportingbet Another long-shot but if she plays like she did a week ago she will beat anyone easily. Zvonareva seems out-of-sorts for some reason and Williams is overrated here even if fit. Yes she has all the weapons and she is the legend etc. etc. But her performances before the injury were strange to say the least. Will need some luck obviously :hope, so follow me only if you are brave (or stupid) enough :p

[Colonel Mustard]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Caroline Wozniacki odds on offer for this bet. Federer is in fantastic form at the moment and he is taking on the world #172 who has no weapons of note to cause any trouble. Federer should cruise through this game with no troubles at all. Rafael Nadal

[Psycho]

Re: Australian Open Tennis 2012 Alex Kuznetsov vs Rafael Nadal. Under 27 games. 1.96 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Rare Grand Slam main draw appearance for Kuznetsov who in my opinion will be outdone in no time. Nadal is aware of his condition and knows that there's no need to waste energy in early rounds. Kuznetsov really average player who spends most of his time on Challenger tour. Might force a Challenge in the opening set but the overall chances are slim. Under 27 games gives a chance for 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 scoreline to be a push. And in all honesty don't think the Russian will win more than 9 games. Jurgen Melzer -2.5 vs Ivo Karlovic. 1.81 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Karlovic probably will get to tie-breaks but it remains to be seen how much he gets out of this match. He has got horrible record against the Austrian having lost all five matches and most importantly has never ever won a set in 11 tries against Melzer. Handicap is tiny 2.5 games and Melzer can get this done even if he drops a set. Karlovic won't hold every single time in 4 or 5 sets. Olivier Rochus -4.5 vs Bjorn Phau. 1.99 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Two small guys who can't serve, should be WTA like match. Rochus really impressive in Auckland and had it not been David Ferrer in the final who knows... He defends very well and for Phau who doesn't possess huge power it will be really hard to do something against Rochus. Going with -4.5 games handicap for Rochus as he will get more breaks and in the end will prevail. Not much to cover over three sets.