mileni4uk Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 There's gotta be a chance of Our Father trading evens or lower :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartrum Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 7to4 Hurricane fly for the champion hurdle @ blue sq and 8/13 big bucks sporting bet for the world hurdle.... Who can beat them????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Sitting on massive treble at 12/1 on them two + Quevega. Let's hope they get there in one piece! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartrum Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Sitting on massive treble at 12/1 on them two + Quevega. Let's hope they get there in one piece! :) Crackin bet... as you said get them there in one peice!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 HF now odds on after todays easy victory 4/5 SP was a gift now you look at it Just adding a horse that i will be looking for at the festival and expect big odds is Araldur, it put in a decent effort in The Giant Bolsters race yesterday but hit at least 3 fences hard and so hopefully brush up on that and come back for the festival with a few lbs off its back. I wonder if it will go back to 2m now but we'll see. I personally think this horse could spring a surprise at the festival in one of the h'caps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Like I said HF isn't a horse that needs a run because he's in the small bracket of top, top class horses. Even when he drifted today I wasn't worried. It's just all about now whether you think evs is value or not. Based on their last running and overall form, Rock on Ruby and Binocular are going to struggle to get near him. People might expect ROR to improve but he should've beaten Bino if he's to go near HF. Grandouet and Zarkandar are short enough on what they've achieved and neither strike as potentially getting to the level HF is at, although judgement slightly reserved on Zark for obvious reasons. My worry about Grandouet is that the form of the International might be atrocious, with Overturn on the go for so long and Brampour having two hard races in handicaps. Still, he won easily enough. The rest aint getting near him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I think Benny Be Good has a good chance in the festival handicap. His last 2 races he has ran eye-catchingly well off top weight. He was given a very tender ride last time out but made steady progress through the field to finish 4th. James Reveley never got serious with the horse and I reckon connections know they have a good chance at the festival with this horse so didn't want to win with him. I don't know if they are maybe trying to preserve the horses handicap mark? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 There's gotta be a chance of Our Father trading evens or lower :D A chance, but a very remote chance i feel. The only way Our Father will trade that short is if Big Bucks looks like its not going to win the race, Big Bucks would have to trade @ 2/1 or 5/2 in running in order for Our Father to go that short.. Cant see that happening... Maybe if you put in a lay @ 5, it may have a squeak, but at evens cant see that coming close personally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 A chance, but a very remote chance i feel. The only way Our Father will trade that short is if Big Bucks looks like its not going to win the race, Big Bucks would have to trade @ 2/1 or 5/2 in running in order for Our Father to go that short.. Cant see that happening... Maybe if you put in a lay @ 5, it may have a squeak, but at evens cant see that coming close personally. You never know. Dynaste traded 2.3, Grands Crus 1.74. Don't forget there are non-everyday punters at the festival. Many will know BB is under pressure and will find, but there will be idiots, who will be laying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Wasn't too impressed with Dildar. His flat speed won him the race in the end but he will have to greatly improve his jumping is he has any chance at the festival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Wasn't too impressed with Dildar. His flat speed won him the race in the end but he will have to greatly improve his jumping is he has any chance at the festival. Not just at the festival, he can't win his next race if he jumps like that again. Sometimes horses can't jump on bad ground though. He needs strongly run 2m on good ground and might improve, but it's a big worry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 That being said, PN has done wonders with Prospect Wells' jumping and countless other novices before, so I wouldn't write it off just yet. The way he quickened was impressive and 1 and 2 were both well clear. Could be good form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Oh no doubt, they way he quickened was very impressive. Just his jumping was terrible and in a big field and strongly run Triumph, I think his jumping would certainly hinder his chances. Still like you said plenty of time for him to improve his jumping and it was his first race over jumps so maybe he can be forgiven. Sanctuaire on the other hand was very impressive on his first start over fences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Too early to give up on Dildar but his jumping will have to improve, this is very likely though and Adonis next, clearly has class and as Milen said a quick pace will certainly help, looks reasonably soft at Taunton I was very impressed with Sanctuaire then, very nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLL Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I backed Dildar at 18's a couple of weeks ago, wasn't very impressive but that's most probably down to the slow pace and tacky ground. Most novices only run to about 110-120 on their debut so I'm not too concerned but my only worry would be that he'll probably only run in the Adonis before the Triumph which doesn't really leave him much time to improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 What did Pricewise put up for the Arkle today in his ante post column? Anyone know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 What did Pricewise put up for the Arkle today in his ante post column? Anyone know? Think I noticed it being Menorah, but just skimmed through the paper in the bookies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elchubb Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Yeah it was Menorah, which means out of 4 bets, he's put up Hobb's top 3 stable stars, all of which have disappointed in one way or another this season and looked to regress on last seasons form! So does he know something we don't? Or is he saying that the stables form of the big names is too bad to be true and that surely one of them must put in a performance at the festival, he's not sure which so he'll just play the numbers game? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Expecting much more from Theatre Guide for the Tizzard's tomorrow at Leicester. Tough rival in the contest with Strongly Suggested but TG was a good horse in bumpers and looked a nice type for hurdling. Enjoys soft ground but pulled extremely hard for basically the first mile at Aintree and jumped very, very novicey. Still travelled up turning in before fading behind some decent types - Barbatos won, Distime 2nd, Tempest River etc in behind. I know he's a long way off top class on that showing but if he learns to settle/jump, I think he's a big one to watch. Got an engine. 470 for the Neptune on Betfair is fair enough but you never know. If he can put it all together tomorrow, he'll be rising up the ratings for sure. Had Magnifique Etoile (136 over hurdles) 2l behind when giving him 10lbs at Chepstow when winning his bumper, Grove Pride (132) in 3rd, Themilanhorse (123) getting 4lbs, beaten over 7 lengths. Good ground probably not ideal in valuable bumper in Ireland with Will Biddick on board but finished 2nd. Obviously it's all worthless if you can't jump, but I see plenty of potential if they can sort his obvious problems out from Aintree. EDIT: Just seen: THEATRE GUIDE 4 b g King's Theatre - Erintante. Fourth, won and second in three bumpers February to April. Started 3-1 for hurdle debut at Aintree over two and a half miles in October but distant sixth of nine. "He was lame behind after Aintree last time and also coughed. Back cantering now and looking really well. I think he's a good horse and he'll be out in January and then we'll see where we are. Not a bad effort all things considered then. Obviously Cheltenham is probably a step too far but I reckon this fella will be useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Also, Burton Port in at Sandown on Saturday :D Would only have to give a serious amount of weight away after 434 days off the track. Pffft. Easy. One problem about him would be the whip rules, though. Finds plenty for pressure - as seen in the Hennessy. Geraghty would be on the next flight to Guantanamo if he did that ride now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Yeah it was Menorah, which means out of 4 bets, he's put up Hobb's top 3 stable stars, all of which have disappointed in one way or another this season and looked to regress on last seasons form! So does he know something we don't? Or is he saying that the stables form of the big names is too bad to be true and that surely one of them must put in a performance at the festival, he's not sure which so he'll just play the numbers game? :unsure I noticed a post elsewhere saying does he have info we don't know about or does he just expect Hobbs's horses to be in form by the festival? I read reports of Captain Chris returning to the paddock after Kempton with its rear shoe twisted round its foot the wrong way, possibly causing it pain and discomfort. I felt it jumped like it was injured at Cheltenham and I've seen others write the same, it wasn't just slightly right, it was swerving right at the fences. I could see Capt Chris and Menorah running better than expected but I feel Wishfull Thinking is just plain overrated. The horses have been sent off to see Yogi Bear but Menorah just looks so unnattural over fences he has a huge job on his hands. It certainly has class, an engine and travels well but I don't like its jumping one bit. Having said that Big Zeb looked poor previously and improved no end over the fences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 started my countdown today to Cheltenham and starting to feel a buzz now waiting until nearer the festival to have some more bets though found some interesting sorts for the handicaps also to have a good look at, real Cheltenham horses they are too!! Not sure ive got a Buena Vista this year but maybe ....!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Anyone have any thoughts on the Betfair Hurdle? I don't see Zarkandar winning this but expect him to come on massively for the run at the fesitval. I will be sticking with Olofi having backed him on his last 2 runs and I quite like the look of Empire Levant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Gonna be having a big EW bet on Zark. Never listen to Nicholls, there is absolutely no way Zark will run his race and not place. Off 151 to have any chance in the Champion they've gotta win. Maybe the horse did have a setback earlier in the year, but they aint using the Tote Gold Trophy as a prep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Looks like Our Father will now go Pertempts. There is a rule that if a meeting is abandoned all entries get qualified, so he can run off his current mark (148) with no fear of getting in the 150s. That is too good an opportunity to be missed and knowing Pipe, I'm 99% certain they will swerve Big Bucks this year and give Dynaste one final go. Shame about my bet, but hopefully I'll still win big on him in the Pertempts :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benreado Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 The Betfair Hurdle is shaping up to be a very fascinating race (fingers crossed it goes ahead!), however from a betting perspective I'm not convinced I'd want to be getting heavily involved. I think once again this season we may see another Saturday 2m handicap with a large field yet no pace. 80% of the horses entered are hold up horses with only a handful of horses that like to be prominent and only 1 front runner I note: Marsh Warbler. Last time this animal had his own way in front was in The Ladbroke and that day many fancied horses pulled hard and didn't perform as they were capable of. Marsh Warbler finished a close fifth that day and I'd be surprised if his connections would go any faster in the Betfair if condition were similar. Personally, I couldn't be on Zarkander at 10/3. He will have no doubt improved from his Triumph with last March and it's hard to see him not finishing in the placings, but in a handicap this competitive and with potentially no pace he will have to be close to 100% to win this. Of course he could hack up, but many of these good things have been beaten in the past and at the price I'd be in no rush to back him. I also think Darlan represents awful value at at low as 13/2 in places! He runs off a mark of 146 (which the bha have since adjusted to 143), but personally I think his 136 racing post rating is a more accurate indication of what he has achieved so far. He had to fight hard to beat 120 rated High Storm by a nose at Cheltenham and even his race after when beating Jump City comfortably doesn't look great as that horse tailed off in a handicap next time out. He'd have to improve 10lbs just to run to his mark and then probably a further 10lbs to win the race. Can he improve 20lbs in a month? I don't think even Henderson is capable of that. However, Henderson's other runner Soldatino is interesting. He looks as if he's been lay out for this race for some time and as it's been almost a year since he was last seen. He will no doubt have improved since then. He was only 2 lengths behind Recession Proof in this race last year and runs off the same mark this time. Henderson will no doubt have him 100% and with Geraghty likely to be onboard you'd expect a good run. 20/1 on the exchanges looks quite a nice price. Another horse that looks to have a very strong chance is Raya Star who won lto in The Ladbroke. The race wasn't run to suit and he will improve when running in a properly run race. However, I'm not convinced he'll get that in the on Saturday Betfair so he's one I'll keep in the notebook for another day. The horse who finished ahead of him in his previous race is the relatively unexposed Empire Levant who also appears to have place claims. He is, however, the stables second choice which is clearly a negative when trying to pick a winner and with Daryl taking over from Harry Derham he's effectively carrying 19lbs more than he did when second to Rock on Ruby last time. I think that will be hard to defy. The final two horses on my shortlist are Olofi and THIRD INTENTION. These two horse make the most appeal to me from a betting perspective. Both ran good races in the Greatwood hurdle, with the former finishing finishing stronger than any other horse and the latter going the strongest with 2 furlongs to go and then hitting the last hurdle and not finding a great deal. Olofi was strongly fancied at Newbury last time and was traveling powerfully when he fell 3 out. Looking back at replays I think as soon as Brennan had asked the question he'd have drawn clear and won easily. That doesn't look the strongest race, but the horse is no doubt ahead of the handicapper at present and it would be no surprise to see him win. Third Intention also ran a good race after when second to Ranjaan off top weight. Ranjaan looked thrown in at the weights that day and the pair were 11 lengths clear of the next horse so that could turn out to be very good form. Tizzards mount posted his highest RPR (151) that day and his official rating will go up 4 to 146 after the Betfair Hurdle. It's also worth pointing out that the ground was softer than Third Intention would've liked that day and he was getting pushed along after the 6th before coming back onto the bridle later. If the horse travels as he did at Chetenham and still has something to give at the end he stands a fantastic chance. 16/1 looks a generous price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 When will Synchronized participation be decided for the Hennessy? Tomorrow? Quito and Jessy's NRs today. I have decent looking bet on Quel Esprit and if Synch is also out, I'll just need a clear round from him to collect. Also he's my idea of a bet w/o the front 2 in the Gold Cup especially if Grands Crus doesn't line up, which looks likelier by the minute. Been drifting quite a lot recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elchubb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 When will Synchronized participation be decided for the Hennessy? Tomorrow? Quito and Jessy's NRs today. I have decent looking bet on Quel Esprit and if Synch is also out, I'll just need a clear round from him to collect. Also he's my idea of a bet w/o the front 2 in the Gold Cup especially if Grands Crus doesn't line up, which looks likelier by the minute. Been drifting quite a lot recently. Where do you get your info on non runners Mileni? I've lost count this jumps season the amount of times you've put up a horse because another is likely to become a non runner and then as sure as hell the next day (sometimes sooner) the other horse becomes a non runner leaving you with a great price! This is something i want to become better at as the value achieved from it is unbelievable! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Last Instalment injured. Wonder if they will now aim Sir Des Champs at the RSA or try that overrated dog First Lieutentant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elchubb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Last Instalment injured. Wonder if they will now aim Sir Des Champs at the RSA or try that overrated dog First Lieutentant? Hopefully it'll be First Lieutentant as i've backed Sir Des Champs for the jewson! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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