Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread -22.6pts now. Argh. Hereford Boy and Hayek just failed to get involved. Hereford Boy was without room and ended up on the worst part of the track probably. Should have placed probably. Hayek was slowly away and finished widest of all, just failed to place also. Memphis Man and Imjin River were poor, and Requisite ran well to be 5th but just couldn't go the pace to get involved.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.45 Leicester - 3pts win Fly By White @ 4/1 (VC) - BOG I am naturally wary that Richard Hughes is on stablemate Danceyourselfdizzy in this race, but I'm more keen on Frankie McDonald's mount, Fly By White. She looks well in at the weights for this seller, and will find the drop back to a mile a big help having been unable to see out the 10f trip the last three tries. Ran a sound enough race over that distance in a seller last time out, but as expected couldn't maintain what looked to be a strong challenge from the front. Her form over a mile is by far her best, as she readily shirked her maiden tag at Brighton back in October. She had been keen over further, also, so everything looks perfect for her to bounce back into form this evening.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread That was one seriously frustrating performance. You're on a horse who tends to lead and is keen. Why, then, do you restrain him in last place so he can pull your arms out? Ran on to be 3rd, but I'd hazard a guess it'd have won if allowed to actually stride out in the early stages. I know it's easy to say sat at home, but surely that was hugely stupid.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Full update/stats will be done in the not too distant future. Now, leap of faith time... 6.25 Leopardstown - 1pt e/w Remember Alexander @ 14/1 (Bet365) - BOG Jessie Harrington's 2yo filly runs in this Group 3 stakes despite failing to have won a maiden in two attempts, but something tells me she still is a very nice filly. Her debut effort was extremely eye-catching, which made her disappointing run 2nd time out a major blow for me. I thought she was clearly the horse to take out of the race at the Curragh on the 2nd May when she first saw the racetrack. She was punted off the boards into 5/2 favourite and we soon saw why as she was slowly away, before racing keenly and inexperienced. Fran Berry had to switch right before she rattled home to finish 2nd by 2l. The winner on that occasion was none other than Power, who has rock solid form having won the Coventry at Royal Ascot. He also has form with Fire Lily prior to Ascot, who has confirmed the form. The Curragh form has worked out well, also, with several horses coming out and running well since. It was such a good effort under the conditions that I couldn't see her beaten when sent off at 5/6 on her next start, but despite being close up throughout, and holding every chance not far from the line, she could only finish 4th of 16. She goes up to 7f today which possibly will suit in some regards, but at the same time, she's raced quite freely on her two starts to date which raises question marks in my mind. If she settles then perhaps she's a bit overpriced. I truly hope that her latest run was not her true self, and she will indeed be a very smart individual, which I thought after her debut run. I have been trying to find excuses for it, and perhaps I came across something when looking at trainer form in recent months. Jessie Harrington was operating at an 8% strike rate with her flat runners in May - when both Remember Alexander's runs were. However, she boasted a 21% strike rate in April, followed by 19% in June and so far 18% in July. Say her horses weren't running up to scratch when Remember Alexander ran last time, it may just give some scope for a much improved performance today. The market suggests it is a 2 horse race, but even the 3rd favourite was well held by Remember Alexander when the pair were beaten by Power, so perhaps 14/1 is overpriced. Tenth Star may be tough to beat, but if one of the front two in the market fail to sparkle, or Remember Alexander bounces back, 14/1 might give a tasty reward for a top-two finish. Despite the O'Brien favourite looking a progressive sort, it might be a bit skinny with Zip Top well beaten by Fire Lily since, and a 3 runner field last time could have flattered him. Sticking with my guns, though, with a filly who I believed would be very useful after her debut, and hopefully she'll repay my faith today. Tough ask, but she boasts a very creditable 2l 2nd to a Coventry winner, so should be ruled out at your peril.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Faith pays off!

[BillyHills]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Nice one mate:clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Really chuffed with that. I thought she was very good and it looks like being proved that way now. A few comments would be that perhaps she was flattered given Bolger's horse was probably disadvantaged on the far rail, but you can't question the way she travelled, and then really picked up well when asked by Murtagh. She shot clear down the centre of the course despite hanging a bit to score by 4 lengths. A filly against the colts, now a Group 3 in the bag, hopefully more is to come from her. Think I went (slightly) wrong somewhere, I hope this is right now! Total bets: 59 Won: 9 Placed: 9 Total staked: 145pts Total returned: 138.4pts P/L: -6.6pts Nearly there now! Not too bad considering I have been using 1/5 odds on all bets, and not used BOG that efficiently really until now. Naturally it's not great seen as I'm still behind, but hopefully it won't be long until profit is finally made. Strike rate isn't great, but plenty of my winners have been big prices so it works out okay in the end. Hopefully we'll be in the black tomorrow, but if not, sooner rather than later!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.55 Ascot - 1pt e/w Mountain Hiker @ 12/1 (Hills) - BOG I realise Keys is all the rage here and is well ahead of the handicapper, but I can't help but feel there is e/w value to be found. With 9 runners in the field, and 12/1 bar the first two in the betting, I think it's worth taking a punt on Jeremy Noseda's charge, who has shown good form in two starts this season so far. He shaped as if a stayer last year, and stepped up on form when running a blinder at York. Was kicked on by Paul Hanagan in the straight, and looked like he'd hold on all the way up the straight, but was collared late on by two horses. He's certainly not the most straight forward, but again battled on well to only go down by 1/2l over this c&d last time out with the front three 10l clear. The other two with him were in sound form at a decent level so he's in great heart. He gets the visor applied today which can hopefully iron out any quirks, and get a little bit more out of him. He goes from the front which should help him find himself in the top three, even with the presence of Red Kestrel in the field. Keys is the most likely winner, I'll admit, but with ground doubts over the second favourite, I think 12/1 is a very nice each-way price. Obviously this horse has to contend with the soft ground, but I reckon he'll go on it, and can make the frame. Who knows, might be able to battle them off from the front! Jeremy Noseda is in flying form at the moment with 322231181 his recent finishing positions, and I think it's a good chance to find a place at least, at a nice 12/1 price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Beaten about a short head into 4th. Have to laugh.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5.05 Ascot - 3pts win Fantasy Gladiator @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) This horse has never won on turf, but I think today could be his day. First Post is possibly a deserving favourite, but I'm wary of his tendencies to hang (probably throwing race away at Sandown recently), and is worth taking on in my opinion, with a horse who I think has been a little bit unlucky of late. He destroyed a Kempton field off a mark of 80 in December and runs off a turf mark of 79 today. There are no questions that he goes on turf, he just simply is probably better on the all-weather. Some of his better turf runs have come on softish ground, so I'm very hopeful of a big run today. All of his turf runs have been good this year, after excuses of a break on his first start of the season. He stayed on well in the blanket finish at Sandown, where Norman Orpen won, and First Post hung badly. He took a keen hold over 10f at Chester but ran well enough to say it was a little bit too taxing on the stamina front. His effort at Salisbury can be well excused when racing on the wrong part of the track - the first four were clear and were centre to far side - Fantasy Gladiator ran stands side. Everything went against him over today's c&d last time out, when losing his position and unable to find a run for ages, and could never get dangerous despite staying on when clear. Conditions clearly suit today, and I think he'll go very close if the breaks come.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Thought that was gonna be my horse to take me into profit! Should have gone ew bet to nothing but oh well. Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread -11.6pts now. A rather frustrating '1 place off' day. Mountain Hiker kicked on turning for home but was soon passed by the two well-handicapped horses, but unfortunately lost the scrap for 3rd by a short head. I was confident with Fantasy Gladiator, and I got a good run, but unfortunately he failed by 1/2l, and unfortunately I went with a win bet. First Saturday I've been around to post and watch today so looking forward to it.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.15 Ascot - 1.5pts e/w Aerial Acclaim @ 7/1 (Bet365) - BOG Really competitive mile handicap, but I feel that Clive Cox's Aerial Acclaim may well get his moment in the limelight with victory today. He's never actually won a race, the only runner in the field not to do so, but it will only be a matter of time, and I don't think he'll have to wait any longer than this afternoon. He's only had 4 runs to date, 2 coming as a 2yo last year, and two further runs this season. He looked a little bit green last year, despite showing evident promise when running in competitive races behind smart horses Pausanias and Moriarty. It was always likely he'd make a better 3yo, and was sent off at 6/4 at Chepstow on his third start, but found one horse 2l too strong. That horse reopposes today, in the shape of Stage Attraction. Aerial Acclaim had every chance until the death of the race, and considering Andrew Balding's charge had the fitness edge on the day, I'm very content that Aerial Acclaim can reverse that form with a 7lb swing in the weights. Last time out, Aerial Acclaim was slowly away at Sandown, but benefited from a tearaway leader to really finish well. He stayed on powerfully up the rail to be a very fast-finishing 3rd, 1 1/4l behind Chilled, the winner. He shaped as if the return to a mile would suit, and with a level break, may well have won the race. Today's race is over a mile, and I feel he can run them down. Albaasil is clearly a smart improver for powerful connections, but he's gone up another 10lbs, and I'm not convinced he'll be able to defy his new mark at the moment. I'm always a bit wary of collateral form, but he beat a horse last time by 3l who previously was further than that behind Aerial Acclaim at Sandown, and prior to that, was 1 1/2l too strong for Burj Hatta - a horse who was beaten 5l by Aerial Acclaim in Cox's first run of the season. There are obviously other threats in the race, but Aerial Acclaim has a light weight to carry, and I think he's one that they'll all have trouble beating.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.20 Newmarket - 2pts e/w Seal Rock @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) Henry Candy's yard could be going better, but I'm very confident he's got a nice horse in Seal Rock, and I think he's going to be bang there come the finish today. I don't think this is the best 0-105 sprint handicap ever, and Seal Rock is certainly one of the more unexposed horses in the field, having only had four runs to date - all of which have been good. He readily got off the mark at the first time of asking when winning by 1 1/4l at Doncaster last November from Anoint in 2nd. That horse franked the form by winning next time out, and putting in a solid 2nd to Sinfonico on his most recent start. Seal Rock found a mark of 85 very workable when winning very nicely on his 2nd start, after a break of around 5 months, in a competitive 0-100 Grade 2 handicap, scoring by just under 2l from Coeus in 2nd. That horse won a big handicap at the July meeting last time out and is now rated 95. Seal Rock was regarded as a possible group horse after this run, and even though it may be a little optimistic, he certainly has shown plenty of promise. Despite his 3rd win, at Newmarket, not looking quite so visually impressive, he got on top from El Viento for a 3/4l victory. The pair were nearly 4l clear from a horse who has won since, and El Viento himself has proved he's a decent horse by going well in decent races since - so it wasn't quite as weaker race (relatively speaking) as suggested at the time. Seal Rock's mark went up again to 96 when he contested a big handicap at York, won by Lexi's Hero, who seemingly had the 'golden highway' up the stands side rail. However, Henry Candy's unbeaten gelding proved that he was still improving with a very solid run indeed. Drawn on the opposite side to the winner, Seal Rock had to contend with racing on the far side of the field, possibly not the ideal place to be, but kept on well to be in contention just about throughout, until the latter stages. As the line loomed, he was short of room and ended up being eased off by Fergus Sweeney, exaggerating the 3 1/4l losing margin, which probably would have been more like 1 1/2l or 2l. He wasn't quite going the pace to challenge, but would have been right in the blanket for the placings, a very sound run given his track position. The other horses who did well from low draws are clearly useful, with Acclamazing proving very progressive, despite not running since, and Majestic Miles, who won a listed event at Chester last time. It proved the form of the runners on that part of the track is solid, and gives further hope to Seal Rock's chances today. Seal Rock runs off the same mark today (96), and I fail to see a poor run, so a price of 8/1 looks very tasty to me, even in a field such as this. He looks fairly straightforward and genuine, who stays the 6f well but also has plenty of pace. I don't think this race is as strong, and has a favourite's chance for me. I know he's a market leader, but at 8/1 that doesn't really make a difference in my eyes - he's still a good price. I'm confident he'll run a big race, and therefore is a pretty big e/w bet for me.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Never managed to get into a good stride. Ended up being switched all over the shop really. Poor.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Carlisle - 1pt e/w Lady Chaparral @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) I can't quite believe I'm going for a horse in a lady amateur riders event, but the experienced Miss L Horner takes the ride, and I think this horse has a fine chance at a nice price. She has only run 6 times to date, most of which showing abundant promise. She was 3rd on her debut before getting off the mark on just her second attempt, after a break, at Newcastle over 1m4f. She again ran well on her handicap debut, when going wide round the bend, but kept on from the front to finish 2nd to George Adamson. The only real blemish in the formbook was at Haydock, when she weakened out of it, to finish last, but I'm happy to forgive her that run. She put in a career best when chasing home the now 4-in-a-row winning Easy Terms. Lady Chaparral herself was 7l clear of the third. Last time out, she found the 14f trip too taxing, having made smooth headway to lead before weakening. The step back in trip will suit, and I think she still has plenty to offer. She should go well, even in a race like this.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread I still hate those races :rollin Went just how I'd hoped, though. I think it always pays to be prominent in those races as the jockeys, with all due respect, aren't quite as capable of getting a finishing kick out of those coming from behind. Tracked the two leaders throughout before taking it up with 2 to run, and kept on really well. Felt sick as she past the furlong pole but knew she had it with 1/2 to run! Takes the thread on to -3pts, and just found one horse I'm interested in that runs in about an hour. Post coming...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.10 Carlisle - 2pts win Youhavecontrol @ 4/1 (Bet365) - BOG I've kept an eye on this horse quite a bit since he first ran - as he was really well supported on his debut at Newcastle. However, the ground was absolutely bottomless and despite travelling quite well, he faded away to be beaten 12l in the end. I kept the faith for when he returned to the track at Thirsk in April, and he repaid it by scoring narrowly from Bertiewhittle, on good ground over 6f. He picked up and held on well to score by a head. The pair were 5l clear and Bertiewhittle since has been in superb form, now rated 19lbs higher than when he ran behind Youhavecontrol at Thirsk. Michael Dods' gelding had no luck at Thirsk when he ran much better than the 11l 5th that is in the formbook. He stumbled mid-race as they rounded a bend, and then travelled sweetly in the midfield. He had nowhere to go, however, and soon found himself travelling right at the back. By the time he got out again, he rallied well on the outside to pass several horses to finish 5th of 12 behind Chosen Character. I expected him to run well at Newcastle last time out, but he flopped to be last. However, he again travelled quite well, and conditions probably weren't ideal. The ground was on the soft side of good, which seemingly doesn't suit ideally, and the trip might have stretched him over a mile. He was only beaten 5 1/2l in last, so it wasn't a massacre, and now back on better ground over 7f, should put in a bold bid. I don't think this race is as strong as what he competed in last time either, and I expect him to go extremely well indeed.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Might as well accept I'll never make profit in this thread :p Youhavecontrol beaten 1/2l by an 18/1 shot.

[BillyHills]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Nice 10/1 winner Rupert, keep going mate:clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread -5pts, can we turn it into profit today? 3.45 Yarmouth - 2pts win Batgirl @ 4/1 (Bet365) - BOG A tight little handicap, but I'm going to take John Berry's filly to reverse form with the in-form favourite, Rough Rock. Having said that, you can't really rule any of the 5 runners out. Sir Mozart is a big threat, but has been off since August. The shrewd Barney Curley can not be written off though. Amoya also has a chance, but I think the winner will probably come from the first three in the market. Rough Rock got the better of Batgirl two starts ago, but only by 1/2l. Batgirl was giving Rough Rock 4lbs that day, and although Rough Rock won well since, I think now with an 8lbs swing for a 1/2l defeat, Batgirl is capable of turning the tables on Chris Dwyer's charge. John Berry's last two horses have run sound races, and Batgirl - like Rough Rock - is a true Yarmouth specialist. She shows little on other tracks quite a lot, but at Yarmouth over 7f, he form reads 1113, only beaten that 1/2l when 3rd recently. You can forget her latest run over 8f in a much tougher company at Newmarket last time out, and back to her favoured conditions, might just be tough to beat. Rough Rock has a career high mark to contend with, and I think Batgirl can secure another c&d victory.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Ayr - 2pts e/w Apache Ridge @ 6/1 (Bet365) - BOG Despite being competitive, this race for me revolves around the proven horse in good form at possibly a slightly higher level, and the potential improver past these. That horse would be Questionnaire, but I'm siding with Apache Ridge, who should have conditions to suit. Keith Dalgleish has made an excellent start to his training career, and this horse has really been running well. In June he drew clear with, and edged out Close To The Edge, who won well next time out. Apache Ridge then went, and was narrowly deprived, by We Have A Dream at Windsor. That race looks quite a bit better than what he contests today in my eyes, as the winner has gone on to run well since in a higher grade, likewise the 4th - Ginger Ted, the 6th - New Leyf, the 7th - Kings 'n Dreams, and the 11th - Aye Aye Digby. It really was an excellent run, and one which surely puts him in with a monumental chance today. The ground was probably a little on the soft side at Newcastle for Apache Ridge last time out, when 6th of 14, beaten just over 4l. This company isn't as strong in my opinion, and if Questionnaire fails to fire under his new mark, I think Apache Ridge is the one to take advantage. He must have a monumental chance of being in the frame, and the price looks very fair to me.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Horrifically disappointing. Argh, my big bets never come off! Possibly better rounding a bend.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Every time I get close to profit my selections bomb! Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Only got in not long ago and hadn't looked at the evening racing, but... 6.40 Windsor - 1.5pts e/w Jamhoori @ 8/1 (Bet365) - BOG Clive Brittain's form is a concern, but I think this horse has got in light off a mark of 68, having shown plenty of promise behind some good types in maidens last year. He stayed on a bit over 6f on his debut, and then met two very smart horses when a well beaten 3rd over 7f at Sandown. The winner was Ecliptic, of Godolphin, who was only beaten 1/4l in a Group 2 in his only outing since, and the 2nd was Surrey Star - now rated 104. Jamhoori again ran quite well over 7f, shaping as if wanting further, yet again in a race which worked out well. Horses Roman Eagle, Jehanbux, Introvert, El Mansour and Star Surprise all finished ahead of Jamhoori and have since done well since. Jamhoori's return this season was hugely encouraging when leading 2f out, but running out of gas to finish a 3 1/2l 5th over this 10f trip. Given he was off for a year, he definitely will have needed it. This is an interesting race, but I think he's in off a cracking mark, and can run a blinder.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread I'm destined never to make profit. Beaten a neck.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread -10.1pts. Roll on Glorious Goodwood!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread First one...bearing in mind there might be something in earlier races. This is just the first one I'm sorted with. 3.45 Goodwood - 1.5pts e/w Burwaaz @ 12/1 (Hills) - BOG To be honest, I'm hugely surprised this horse is as big as 12/1 for the Molecomb tomorrow. I expect him to go off shorter, possibly around 8/1, which is how I'd have him priced up. When you consider Crown Dependency is at best a 9/2 shot for finishing 1/2l ahead of Burwaaz at Royal Ascot, you realise what a good price this appears to be. The Ed Dunlop trained Burwaaz, to me, looks very much a 5f horse at this stage in his career, so it was no surprise when he won easily when dropped back to the minimum trip, after being narrowly deprived over 6f on his debut. Eureka was the winner on that occasion, another Richard Hannon useful 2yo. He's won again since before running well in the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury last time out. Also clear with Eureka and Burwaaz at Nottingham back in May was Caledonian Spring. He won his maiden at Ascot last Friday. Burwaaz might not have beaten anything at Leicester, at 1/4, but won it easily by 2l having been eased towards the finish. His run in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot was highly commendable. Racing in the less-populated stands side group of 5, he stayed on well to lead that group - and destroy his mini field by nearly 4l. He was only beaten 2 3/4l in the end, which looked extremely good, and posed questions as to whether he'd have won if in the midst of the main group. Like I said earlier, Crown Dependency only just held off Burwaaz on that occasion, and it's likely Burwaaz would have beaten the Hannon-trained colt had they raced together. The gap in the market tomorrow looks curious to me. The reason for that, seemingly, would be Burwaaz's run at Newmarket in a conditions race, at the July meeting. This was over 6f, and like his previous start over the distance, was a little bit keen throughout the early stages. He was held up before delivering a strong challenge down the wide outside. He joined Harbour Watch at the furlong pole - yet another Richard Hannon trained challenger - before being outstayed in the closing stages, to go down by a possibly exaggerated 4 1/2l. Harbour Watch will clearly stay further, and to me looks extremely useful, and I think it would have been so much closer over 5f - the trip I feel suits Burwaaz the best. The rest of the field were strung out - all of which who had wins to their name, and two of them with a 100% record from one previous start. Harbour Watch is likely to be a warm favourite for the Group 2 Richmond Stakes on Friday, and I think Burwaaz just met a very smart horse over a trip that wasn't 100% ideal. The horse who was 2nd to Harbour Watch on debut (beaten nearly 4l) won his maiden next time out, and I'm happy to take the 12/1 about Burwaaz back to 5f. He just strikes me as a 5f performer as he can settle better, and see out his races to greater effect. He's speedy, and I think it could be a case of a horse who might have been seen to "flop" somewhat, bouncing back to the previous form that would give him a huge chance. He'd probably be favourite for this had he not run at Newmarket. I remain it wasn't a terrible run, seen as he looked like fighting out a tight finish before his rival forged away in the closing stages. I think he can boost the credentials of Harbour Watch with a big run tomorrow.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.20 Goodwood - 3pts win Sequoia @ 100/30 (Bet365) - BOG I'm not a big maiden-player, but the Barry Hills trained Sequoia caught my eye in what I think was a good Ascot maiden earlier this month. Barry Hills is also coming into some strong form of late, with 4 winners and 3 places from his last 11 runners. At Ascot, Sequoia sat in behind the leaders against the stands rail, before being shaken up. Once he picked up, he struggled to find a gap, and ended up having to be switched back to the rail once Poole Harbour had moved off it. It cost him any chance in all honesty, though he may not have won anyway. Once rousted along against the rail, he stayed on strongly to go down 1 1/4l in 4th. He wasn't given a too stronger ride, and now he'll be more streetwise tomorrow. So long as he gets the breaks, he has a huge chance. It appears he'll stay further than this, both on pedigree, and evidence from his Ascot run, but he's still speedy enough to pick up races over 6f at this stage of his career. It's obviously difficult to assess the other runners for this maiden, but I feel Sequoia has the best chance out of those seen in public to date. The 2nd from Ascot, Gerfalcon, won his only start since, and the runners who did well at Ascot hold some fancy entries. Poole Harbour could only manage 5th @ 4/7, and he had rock solid form behind the smart Wise Venture prior to Ascot. He was keen during the race, but still, it suggests the front four are above-average. Unraced horses from yards such as Ed Dunlop and Richard Fahey naturally have to be respected, but I'll accept it should one of those prove to be the best in the field. I'm very happy to take my chances with a highly promising horse in Sequoia.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.00 Goodwood - 3pts win Modun @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Sir Michael Stoute's Modun has an excellent pedigree, related to some other stable stars, and I think has an outstanding chance to win a big handicap tomorrow. Plenty of runners in this field ran behind Beachfire at Royal Ascot, but using collateral form, Modun beat the 1st and 2nd from Ascot at York a couple of weeks ago. Green Destiny did come out of the Ascot race to win the York race, but things went wrong for him at the Royal meeting, and he proved what many thought - that he was a group horse in a handicap - and is likely to go on to better things now. Modun had no answers to the William Haggas trained gelding, but beat the rest of the field by 1 1/2l. Modun was a horse who shaped with abundant promise last year, despite being green in two starts. He still managed to win despite this on his debut at Folkestone - when sent off at 8/11 - highlighting how much was expected of him. The form of the race isn't particularly relevant given how he did it, so to win it in any manner was impressive. He remained green at Kempton on his 2nd start over 12f, and was headed late on by Spensley - a useful all-weather horse now rated 86. Modun returned to the track in April this year, and in more professional manner, proved what a useful horse he is, by winning by 4l. It was by no means a bad race, as All Action, was well held. That horse reopposes tomorrow and is actually 2nd favourite. Plenty of horses out of that race have run well since - including the 2nd, Udabaa. The question mark was the ground at Ascot, and it proved a very stiff one, as he faded tamely on the soft ground over 12f having raced keenly early on. I expected him to bounce back once on better ground, and probably over 10f - which is seemingly his best trip at the moment given how keen he's raced over further. It's likely he'll develop into a horse who very much gets 12f over time, but clearly he's a good ground horse. He did, as mentioned, bounce back at York, and now with conditions to suit yet again, should run a massive race.