Rupert's Racing Thread

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5.15 Ripon - 1pt e/w King's Counsel @ 9/1 (Hills) - BOG Despite lacking in quality, this 1m4f handicap is competitive, but despite the number of runners, I feel King's Counsel might just get the race to suit him. David O'Meara's 5-y-o gelding loves to dominate his fields, and even though there are set to be 17 runners going to post, I think King's Counsel might just get a decent lead. The only other horse in the field that enjoys making the running is Grey Command, but he's also content to track the pace, and he has a wider draw than my selection - if the draw is now how I think it is at Ripon! (I should really know for sure...my local track!) But anyway, there doesn't appear to be a huge competition for the lead, so as long as King's Counsel doesn't end up in a speed duel up front, he looks set to run a big race. He has a career high mark to defy, but he's still only 5, so it's highly likely he'll manage to win off it at some point, and given his encouraging efforts this year, it could well be today. He's been heavily raced this year with 13 runs since January in both codes. However, he still seems fresh enough, and has run more good races than bad. The races he has performed below-par in have typically come with excuses. His first flat run of the season was over 10f, shorter than ideal, and was held up mid-division also. He won well at Catterick on his next start back up to 12f off a mark of 59, before running over 15f at Doncaster - another unsuitable trip which he hasn't proved he stays. He weakened that day. He did come back to 12f there on his next outing, however, but still failed to fire. Doncaster probably doesn't suit his running style, however, with it being a galloping track with a long straight. He then dominated a field over today's c&d by 3l off a mark of 62, beating one of today's (revitalised) rivals in Fossgate. He attempted to repeat the feat next time, but never managed to get to the lead, and the ground was probably softer than ideal. He faded into a well-held 5th of 8, with Fossgate reversing the form comprehensively to score. King's Counsel bounced back next time, though, when a 1/2l second at Musselburgh to Amazing King. That horse has gone very close twice since. The blinkers were applied that day for the first time, replacing the visor, so clearly he's just as capable in this headgear, even if all his career wins have come wearing a visor. His next effort at Catterick can be easily excused, over a two mile trip which didn't suit. He ran a sound race just two days later at Chester when beaten by an in-form Bradbury - who's poor run since has been met with the jockey claiming he "never travelled". The 2nd horse was Shernando, who won yesterday, from the aforementioned Amazing King. He had a hard race at Catterick so to run as well as he did in such short notice wasn't a bad effort at all. He's had a little break of 24 days to freshen him up for today, and has conditions in his favour. Daniel Tudhope is having an impressive season, and he gets on well with the horse. O'Meara's horses are running perfectly well enough, and this horse should run another consistent race. It's not a very good race, and if he does get a decent lead, which I suspect he will, he'll take some pegging back at a track which he likes - not surprising given its tendency to favour prominent racers.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Pretty sure that will be the only afternoon bet, actually, nothing else really takes my fancy.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Looked pretty at the top of the straight but kicked on too early for me. Went a full 4 furlongs out when waiting another furlong and a half would have suited better. Was never going to keep that up.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.10 Windsor - 1pt e/w Sula Two @ 16/1 (Bet365) - BOG This is one of those where if she finishes tailed off, you just have to accept it. I'm taking a punt on him, seen as if she can get back to last year's form, she'd have a big chance in this. First of all, her rider is capable in these sort of events both over jumps and on the flat. Secondly, Ron Hodges enjoyed his best month of the season in July, and this came after Sula Two's runs on the flat this season. He also finished the month well so he remains in good form. Sula Two is a horse who stays all day, having won over 17f at Bath, but also won over trips similar to this, when enjoying a good year. I think you can excuse both runs this year, with her likely to need her first run, and then running in a competitive race which looks well stronger than what she contests tonight. It was a class 3 race and it was always likely she'd be outclassed. The course holds no issues, and back in more suitable company, he can go well for a trainer in form.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Out-and-out stayer, amateur riders race. Holds him up a mile off the lead, plugs on. Mindblowing.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Catterick - 2pts win North Central @ 5/1 (BlueSQ) I think this horse has a huge chance in a race that looks a little easier than his latest assignment. He's been running well this year, but typically runs his best races at Catterick, and the 6f trip is ideal. He won here nicely in early June before running okay for a lady rider at Hamilton next time out. These races can typically be ignored, as could his effort over a mile at Chester on soft ground, where he actually ran quite well under the circumstances to be a 3l 5th, as well as not getting a clear run. He came back to Catterick over 7f then, and tried to stretch the field out before being mowed down by Hot Rod Mamma, a horse in great form, who has franked the form with two easy successes since. There was no fewer than 9l back to the third at Catterick, and given 7f isn't 100% ideal given he can be quite keen, it was an excellent effort. He was keen again over 7f at Ayr, so it was no surprise to see him have no more to give, and fade to 4th. He ran okay last time in what I think was a better race at Ayr again - this time over 6f - when 3 3/4l off the winner, Royal Blade. This looks a bit easier, with quick ground in his favour as well as the 6f trip at Catterick which he loves. Jim Goldie continues in good form, and Daniel Tudhope is enjoying a fine season.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Just didn't quite pan out. He likes to race handy but ended up very wide and last due to fast pace, stayed on well but just couldn't get past the winner. +36.3pts now. Will look at evening racing later.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Bit quiet at the moment. None of my "alert" horses have been running in the last few days other than Eijaaz, who, whilst I thought went off a cracking price of 2/1, wasn't really worth a bet when he was more of a 13/8 chance. Nothing particularly stands out today on first glance but will have a more in-depth look. Not going to get involved in poor racing for the sake of it.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Brighton - 2pts win Makheelah @ 10/1 (Bet365) - BOG I think this horse is a stonking price in a pretty poor fillies handicap over a trip just short of 7f. 10/1 in a 6-runner field is well overpriced in my opinion, even though she ran an absolute stinker last time out. She's only had 6 runs to date, and receives weight for her age. She ran well on debut at Doncaster over 7f when 4th of 10, beaten just over 2 lengths. Her next two runs can be excused for the ground being too soft at Yarmouth over a mile, and her next run came after a long break back on quicker ground at the same track. She bounced back to form with a close 3rd behind Icebuster over 7f at Leicester. She then ran well in a tough handicap at Doncaster when just fading over the mile behind the decent Submission. The form of that race looks a lot stronger than what she races against today. She was only beaten 4l. She shaped as if wanting 7f on good ground after that, but she got a mile on soft ground again, and she bombed last time out. She'd done it before on soft ground so it was no surprise, and I expect her to bounce back under ideal conditions today - on a slipping mark, and receiving weight.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Why don't the RP change the going? Good ground it said. I then check the reporter comments and it's soft. Horse had no chance from that moment.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 7.30 Newmarket - 3pts win Figaro @ 5/1 (Bet365) - BOG I think it will pay to side with the unexposed Figaro in this handicap, trained by William Haggas. The trainer is in sparkling form at the minute, and his good run can continue with another winner here. This horse has put in three satisfying performances in maidens, and looks set to strike on his handicap debut off a workable mark of 74. He's raced twice over 7f and once over a mile, but is bred to be a middle-distance performer so should also improve for the step up to 1m2f. He was beaten by useful horses on two runs last year, when running respectable races behind Loving Spirit and Bridgefield. Returned to the track when perfectly entitled to need the run this year but ran well to be 4th of 15 at Haydock. He was surrounded by horses who've gone on to do well this year last year, especially behind Bridgefield, and I think he's entitled to go very close tonight up in trip on his handicap debut. Shaped as if needing it last time, and will be a lot fitter tonight.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 8.00 Newmarket - 4pts win Moriarty @ 11/4 (Hills) - BOG This is a bit of a trappy affair, and it might not suit Moriarty, but everything else should, having raced in some unsuitable conditions recently. He had an excellent year in 2010 when winning twice, before only just losing to the useful Dordogne on his return in 2011. He went up in trip in Ireland when chasing home Alexander Pope - finishing well - and that horses 7l defeat to Nathaniel reads very well. Moriarty was visored at Royal Ascot, but didn't enjoy the soft conditions, before racing keen and not getting home over 12f last time out. The return to 10f on good ground should see him go extremely close tonight, and I think his class will tell. I just hope it isn't a farce.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread +27.3pts. Pah. Disappointing. Especially gutted to see Figaro get beat. Spencer was pushing him along for 4 or 5 furlongs but he kept finding. Gamer than a game pie in front but was reeled in by a neck right at the death. Definitely one to keep an eye on - over further also. Moriarty made the running when I think he's ideally suited by coming off a strong pace. Was sort of proved right as he looked a bit of an awkward ride, and after looking outpaced, he stayed on again late but couldn't threaten again in 3rd. Oh well. Poor week of racing but Saturday now and hopefully a bit more success. Tends to be the case after a great run of form, it slips.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.20 Haydock - 1.5pts e/w Jacqueline Quest @ 12/1 (Bet365) This filly comes with risks, but I simply can't have her as a 12/1 shot in this field. Were this a handicap, she's be giving stacks of weight away, and even if she may not be running up to her mark of 111, that's still 12lbs higher than her next highest-rated rival in the contest. This filly was with Sir Henry Cecil, and famously was deprived victory in last year's 1000 Guineas in the steward's room as Special Duty was awarded the race. She was a mammoth price that day having not shown a lot on her 2nd and 3rd starts. She did confirm that her Guineas run was no fluke, however, with a very respectable 3rd in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot on her next start. She was beaten 3 1/2l that day in a highly competitive field. She couldn't justify favouritism at Goodwood next time out when a 2l 5th in a Group 3 but the track may not have been ideal, and the ground was quick - as it was at Ascot. She's a better horse on softer ground, and connections only take their chances today given the recent rain leaving the ground slightly on the soft side of good. Naturally, her return to the track this year was concerning, when she was turned over at Leicester by 1l. However, she did travel well suggesting her quality was still there, and it may just have been a fitness issue that she couldn't quite see it out. It wasn't a great race though and she really ought to have won. The ground was quick again, probably the final straw for connections, with it now highly unlikely she'll run on very fast ground from now on. She was well beaten on her first start of the season before, though, so it's possible she just needs her first run of the season. Her next issue were the starting stalls at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Forest stakes, where she refused to race. Obviously a huge concern, especially as often one refusal can lead to another and so on etc. This was the case with smart filly Memory this season. However, I'm willing to give her another chance, especially because she's had a change of scenery since that run. She's supposedly enjoying life at Ian William's yard now, and is supposedly "a different horse" and seemingly back to her usual self. This obviously is hugely encouraging, and often it is the case that a new environment can get a horse's spark back. If she is anything like back to her best, she'd win this in my opinion, and I'm very happy to take a chance at the odds. She's passed a stalls test since so hopefully she'll get away with the rest of the runners, and can make her class tell, as well as proving any doubters wrong, with conditions to suit.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

3.20 Haydock - 1.5pts e/w Jacqueline Quest @ 12/1 (Bet365) This filly comes with risks, but I simply can't have her as a 12/1 shot in this field. Were this a handicap, she's be giving stacks of weight away, and even if she may not be running up to her mark of 111, that's still 12lbs higher than her next highest-rated rival in the contest. This filly was with Sir Henry Cecil, and famously was deprived victory in last year's 1000 Guineas in the steward's room as Special Duty was awarded the race. She was a mammoth price that day having not shown a lot on her 2nd and 3rd starts. She did confirm that her Guineas run was no fluke, however, with a very respectable 3rd in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot on her next start. She was beaten 3 1/2l that day in a highly competitive field. She couldn't justify favouritism at Goodwood next time out when a 2l 5th in a Group 3 but the track may not have been ideal, and the ground was quick - as it was at Ascot. She's a better horse on softer ground, and connections only take their chances today given the recent rain leaving the ground slightly on the soft side of good. Naturally, her return to the track this year was concerning, when she was turned over at Leicester by 1l. However, she did travel well suggesting her quality was still there, and it may just have been a fitness issue that she couldn't quite see it out. It wasn't a great race though and she really ought to have won. The ground was quick again, probably the final straw for connections, with it now highly unlikely she'll run on very fast ground from now on. She was well beaten on her first start of the season before, though, so it's possible she just needs her first run of the season. Her next issue were the starting stalls at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Forest stakes, where she refused to race. Obviously a huge concern, especially as often one refusal can lead to another and so on etc. This was the case with smart filly Memory this season. However, I'm willing to give her another chance, especially because she's had a change of scenery since that run. She's supposedly enjoying life at Ian William's yard now, and is supposedly "a different horse" and seemingly back to her usual self. This obviously is hugely encouraging, and often it is the case that a new environment can get a horse's spark back. If she is anything like back to her best, she'd win this in my opinion, and I'm very happy to take a chance at the odds. She's passed a stalls test since so hopefully she'll get away with the rest of the runners, and can make her class tell, as well as proving any doubters wrong, with conditions to suit.

Oh I thought she was gonna be bang there then.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.35 Curragh - 3pts win Remember Alexander @ 9/2 (Bet365) - BOG I posted this prior to Remember Alexander's latest run:

6.25 Leopardstown - 1pt e/w Remember Alexander @ 14/1 (Bet365) - BOG Jessie Harrington's 2yo filly runs in this Group 3 stakes despite failing to have won a maiden in two attempts, but something tells me she still is a very nice filly. Her debut effort was extremely eye-catching, which made her disappointing run 2nd time out a major blow for me. I thought she was clearly the horse to take out of the race at the Curragh on the 2nd May when she first saw the racetrack. She was punted off the boards into 5/2 favourite and we soon saw why as she was slowly away, before racing keenly and inexperienced. Fran Berry had to switch right before she rattled home to finish 2nd by 2l. The winner on that occasion was none other than Power, who has rock solid form having won the Coventry at Royal Ascot. He also has form with Fire Lily prior to Ascot, who has confirmed the form. The Curragh form has worked out well, also, with several horses coming out and running well since. It was such a good effort under the conditions that I couldn't see her beaten when sent off at 5/6 on her next start, but despite being close up throughout, and holding every chance not far from the line, she could only finish 4th of 16. She goes up to 7f today which possibly will suit in some regards, but at the same time, she's raced quite freely on her two starts to date which raises question marks in my mind. If she settles then perhaps she's a bit overpriced. I truly hope that her latest run was not her true self, and she will indeed be a very smart individual, which I thought after her debut run. I have been trying to find excuses for it, and perhaps I came across something when looking at trainer form in recent months. Jessie Harrington was operating at an 8% strike rate with her flat runners in May - when both Remember Alexander's runs were. However, she boasted a 21% strike rate in April, followed by 19% in June and so far 18% in July. Say her horses weren't running up to scratch when Remember Alexander ran last time, it may just give some scope for a much improved performance today. The market suggests it is a 2 horse race, but even the 3rd favourite was well held by Remember Alexander when the pair were beaten by Power, so perhaps 14/1 is overpriced. Tenth Star may be tough to beat, but if one of the front two in the market fail to sparkle, or Remember Alexander bounces back, 14/1 might give a tasty reward for a top-two finish. Despite the O'Brien favourite looking a progressive sort, it might be a bit skinny with Zip Top well beaten by Fire Lily since, and a 3 runner field last time could have flattered him. Sticking with my guns, though, with a filly who I believed would be very useful after her debut, and hopefully she'll repay my faith today. Tough ask, but she boasts a very creditable 2l 2nd to a Coventry winner, so should be ruled out at your peril.

She was quite well backed on this occasion, and the money was correct as she romped to success. It was a really taking performance as she travelled strongly before being taken more towards the stands side to middle to deliver a challenge. The question would be how much would see find having loomed up, but she soon answered, storming away to win by 4l despite wandering around. The race was against the colts, also, and it really confirmed her debut promise. It is possible that she was a little bit flattered by the race, as it was on soft ground which may not have suited some of the runners, and the second placed horse was probably on the wrong part of the track. However, she didn't need much encouragement to draw clear, and the race has at least thrown up a winner, with the well-held Strait Of Zanzibar winning a listed race on Friday night. Jessie Harrington's horses have been knocking on the door without winning, which whilst is slightly concerning, isn't a huge worry seen as they are actually running okay on the whole. I'm not going to go through the rest of the field, but I feel that Maybe - whilst clearly very talented - is beatable, and shouldn't be such a short price given the 1lb difference in ratings with my selection. As impressive as she was in the Chesham at Royal Ascot, the form has flopped rather, with the horses doing best in the race, not pulling up any trees since. Maybe won again since, but only just, so she's not infallible in my eyes. Remember Alexander's form from her first and third runs looks extremely solid to me - with the Coventry form working out, so her run behind Power is strong, and her win last time against the colts was impressive. I think she's got a massive chance of beating the favourite. Whether there's something else in the field that can spoil the party, then we shall see...

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.05 Curragh - 2pts e/w Gatepost @ 9/1 (VC) - BOG I posted this prior to Gatepost's run at Ascot:

4.25 Ascot - 2.5pts e/w Gatepost @ 8/1 (Bet365) I noted down David Wachman's filly Fire Lily after his debut success, and will be eagerly anticipating her run this week. She was beaten by two useful colts last time out, when Wachman was disappointed she didn't win in fact. One of these was Power, and I possibly should be fancying that one today, but Gatepost has really impressed me on both wins to date. His debut win was very ready, and drew clear from another horse I like (and have selected at big prices today). Followed this up when leaving a smart field for dead at York, having been a touch outpaced, to score very nicely by 2 1/2l. The field doesn't look quite as good now, after the emergence of some very talented later 2yos in the shape of Mezmaar, Trumpet Major, St Barths etc, but you couldn't help but be impressed with the way he scooted home. The step up to 6f with a good pace on should suit the horse down to the ground, and I think he'll be thundering home inside the final furlong.

Gatepost on this occasion was beaten 2 1/4l by Power. However, this far from tells the story. I think the gap in the prices is much too big, and I think Mick Channon's talented colt can reverse Coventry form. Gatepost started the race right on the far side, just about the furthest runner away from the stands rail. However, Jamie Spencer decided to come across with about 3f to run, and ended up delivering a late challenge only a few horse widths off the stands rail! It was a remarkable effort to be so far back and with such a huge move during the race, to be finishing well, and only fading right at the death. I firmly believe the distance he lost with his mid-race move cost him winning the race, and that's why I can't believe he's a 9/1 shot, and I don't think this price will last. He'll get 6f fine, even though his late burst did subside somewhat close home. He was fully entitled to do so given his earlier exertions, but the way he did pick up once positioned on the near side was very nice. The horse has a fine turn of foot, and should be more at home in this field. He's entered in no fewer than 3 more Group 1 races after today. He's clearly extremely well regarded by connections, who aren't sending him over for a holiday. He's a serious horse, and I think has a big chance. Plenty of these have a chance, however, and it's difficult to rule many out. But at a price of 9/1, this is simple too big, and I think he's going to go close.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread As expected, Gatepost's price is coming right in.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread +17.3 after a poor day. Remember Alexander kept on but never got dangerous. Might be worth another go when the stable are in better form. Gatepost travelled really well, but possibly his track position and the ground prevented him from picking up. 3.45 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Baby Driver @ 14/1 (Bet365) - BOG I think this Tom Dascombe trained individual is a big price on a return to more suitable conditions. I think 7f is the ideal trip for this horse, having run well a few times at the trip. He didn't pull up any trees in maidens (other than a 5l 2nd) but ran well on his first start in a seller, when chasing home the decent (in that grade) Janet's Pearl. He then had quite a long absence before pulling too hard over a 10f trip. That can easily be excused. Bounced right back when running over 7f again when chasing home Sinadinou (going down by 1/2l) off unfavourable terms, with the pair clear. He combated keenness by trying to make all upped in trip, and was only nailed by Moody Tunes by a head at Carlisle. That horse isn't bad, and the 3rd horse - The Osteopath - is a useful animal also. He didn't handle the surface at Southwell next time, before pulling very hard over 10f last time out when anchored in the rear. It clearly didn't suit, and even though he made some late headway under a lady amateur, had no chance of getting into the race. He's related to an all-weather winner, will find the trip fine, and I think can bounce back and go very well for a yard going quite nicely.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.15 Wolverhampton - 5pts win Pride And Joy @ 3/1 (PP) I am very keen on this colt trained by Jamie Osbourne following five highly promising runs to date. He showed plenty of promise in two maidens, chasing home the useful Misty Conquest, before keeping on over 6f to go down in 4th to Sir Glanton. Lethal Force was 2nd, and he ran a cracking 4th in the Coventry at Royal Ascot. Pride And Joy wasn't beaten more than 2l on that occasion, and shaped as if 7f would prove ideal. He did instead go to the Coventry himself, but was hampered and ended up losing his place - making him unable to challenge. That run is well worth ignoring, so it was no surprise when he drew miles clear with a decent Hannon trained horse in Tones at Brighton. My selection won that day, and Tones has won well since. Pride And Joy did go up to 7f in a good nursery at Goodwood recently, when very slowly away. He picked up strongly to only go down by 1 3/4l in 5th. With a better start today, I think he'll win. He was unlucky that day, and looks deserving of a nursery success.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5 wide at Wolverhampton. Might as well stay at home.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread I feared the same fate when Pride And Joy was caught very wide rounding the bend, but his class got him through, and I think you can safely upgrade the performance. Charged home down the outside to get up late on. Justifying my max bet. +30.3pts now. 5.40 Windsor - 1.5pts e/w Backtrade @ 8/1 (Skybet) I closely watched this horse for when he'd make his second appearance, after being the only horse not to have come out of the Goodwood race in which he made his debut. That race has proved one of the stronger maidens of the season, which worked out extremely well. He was beaten 4 1/2l in 4th that day behind Foxtrot India. That horse hasn't done a huge amount since, but the 2nd - North Star Boy - won well next time out and then ran respectably in the Coventry, finishing 7th. He's run sound races in defeat in pattern company since. Noor Zabeel, 3rd at Goodwood, won easily on his only start since - with that race working out well also. Apostle and Overpowered in behind. The 5th at Goodwood was Evervescent. Won next time out and then 2nd in a listed race at Epsom. Outclassed in the Coventry and listed company again since. Roman Soldier was 6th, and he's gone on to big things since. Smashed his maiden at Leicester before a cracking close 2nd in the Coventry and then only beaten 1l by Frederick Engels at Newmarket. Main Focus was well held in last at Goodwood, yet ran much better behind the useful Wise Venture and then won a maiden (3l victory) on his most recent start. I was very keen on Backtrade for obvious reasons when he did run at Sandown, but he didn't really run that great. However, he was eased late on having been slightly hampered, and finished midfield. Was well beaten at the time, but the ground was on the soft side and I think the slightly better ground tonight will suit him. His dam is a Gulch mare, who does a lot better on dirt/quicker ground, and his dam put in her better runs on quick ground - often flopping on a softer surface. I think he can further boost the form of the Goodwood maiden tonight, on better ground, and at a nice e/w price. Andrew Balding continues in very good form, and I think this will go well.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.40 Windsor - 1.5pts e/w Novellen Lad @ 7/1 (Hills) Posted this prior to his Goodwood run:

2.05 Goodwood - 1.5pts e/w Novellen Lad @ 14/1 (Bet365) - BOG I posted this prior to Novellen Lad's Haydock run: I am not too concerned by his effort, which on the book looks moderate. He was beaten nearly 7l in 8th of 15, but that doesn't tell the story. He was held up in the rear but travelled really sweetly and made smooth headway with about 2 and a half furlongs to run. He looked a big threat but when Eddie Ahern wanted to ask him to quicken, he was short of room and was continually blocked of a clear run. Any momentum was just about gone, and by the time he got him free right on the stands side rail, the race had gone. He did keep on but it was difficult for him to quicken twice. If he gets a clear run through tomorrow I think he has a really good chance. Kieren Fallon replaces Ahern, which is no bad thing especially given Fallon gave the horse a fine ride to win at Newbury. He gets the quick ground and is drawn high which I imagine will suit. One concern is the track but if he handles it fine then I think he's one they all have to fear. I don't think this race is absolutely brilliant for a class 2 handicap and I am really hopeful of a big run. My only other concern is the form of the Willie Musson yard, but he did at least have a recent winner. Hopefully this lad is in tip-top shape.

There are still a couple of concerns tonight. Musson's horses still aren't really firing, and the ground might not quite be quick enough, however, I think he still has a big chance eased slightly in grade. He had no chance at Goodwood in the end, being last of a small group on the near side. The far side dominated, other than a couple who did better on the stands side, but they were more prominent throughout, and you can safely rule out Novellen Lad's effort. This will suit better, I just hope the ground isn't too bad (officially good). He's going to pop up again this year I'm sure of it and I think it could be today.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Backtrade looked like he might make all for a few moments, but just couldn't repel 2 chargers. Still, a decent e/w return. Went off 10/1 and was weak on the exchanges, so next time on even better ground should see him go close.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Going changes will be the death of me. Changed to good/soft. Ran a good 3rd considering. Would have won on quick.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread +31.8pts after two places last night. 2.30 Ayr - 1.5pts e/w Tahitian Princess @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Both Blues Jazz and Benny The Bear have obvious chances of following up their recent victories, but I think that Ann Duffield's Tahitian Princess has a good chance of getting in amongst the market principals. Blues Jazz has to prove he truly gets home over 7f, and on possibly unsuitable ground, it's worth taking him on, even though he is unpenalised for his recent success. I would be keener on the Linda Perratt trained gelding out of the two favourites. However, Tahitian Princess has every right to be competitive given her recent efforts, and the step up to 7f is very interesting in my eyes. It's a trip she hasn't raced at since her very modest first 5 starts. Now she's in much better form, I think she'll enjoy the distance. Her most recent 5 starts have been much more encouraging, often staying on over 6f, with soft ground no concern. However, she did manage to get her head in front on her penultimate outing in a selling handicap. She won that quite readily by over a length with the first 4 clear, and the 4th horse - Clear Ice - winning his last two races in handicap company. That was Paul Hanagan's only ride on the filly, and he rides today, so he has a 100% record - hopefully that continues! Last time out was a very promising effort at Catterick, and she's been dropped 2lbs for that. She was slowly away and was outpaced for a good 3f, but she started to make ground up after the frenetic early gallop, and stayed on to be 3rd before losing that on the line, with Silvestre De Sousa not particularly pushing her out to retain that position. She made her effort down the centre of the course, when the stands side is the place to come when the ground is soft there. She's run okay on her previous try at Ayr, and I think the 7f trip will suit her now. The cheekpieces seem to have livened her up, and she has a live each-way chance in this.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Snatched up when pressing for a place. Standard.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Quick write-ups tonight. 5.30 Ffos Las - 3pts win Just For Mary @ 7/2 (Bet365) This horse has been in cracking form, running good races since winning three starts ago. Her penultimate effort can be forgotten having been very slowly away. She kept on but never had a chance to make an impression. Her next start was a good effort over in Ireland in a better race than this probably, but didn't have the combination of headgear which seems to bring out the best in her. I definitely think she can get another win off this mark with the headgear on.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Beaten a head...

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.10 Beverley - 3pts win Opus Maximus @ 4/1 (Bet365) - BOG I posted this before a recent run:

6.30 Beverley - 1pt e/w Opus Maximus @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) This horse was smart not too long ago, running off marks in the high-eighties, but he seems to have regressed. However, he still appeals in selling company. Even though he's won over further, I think this sort of trip suits him best. He ran well enough at Kempton and Beverley in January and April respectively, before having to contend with a killer wide draw at Chester in a hot claimer on his penultimate start. Had little chance in handicap company last time out, but is favoured at the weights today, and should go well. Hogmaneigh is best in, but has stamina doubts at his first try at 7f. Handsome Falcon has a good chance but his strike rate isn't brilliant, and Glenmuir likewise - as well as having an absence to overcome. Kipchak has work to do at the weights, but usually runs his race. The rest are very moderate. I think Opus Maximus has a solid chance today at a nice e/w price.

He won that day, travelling up well off a strong pace before delivering a challenge to get up inside the final furlong. It was quite a snug victory, and he's been in good form since, also. Like I mentioned, this horse has lots of ability, but isn't the easiest. However, recently he's been doing well and I think another big run is on the cards. This claimer is better than the one he won over c&d back on the 1st of July, but he's in good enough form to win this one, and he did win quite nicely on that occasion. Since that run, he kept on to a 2l 3rd over 6f at Catterick - a trip which doesn't suit ideally nowadays. He also ran quite well over a mile in quite a hot claimer at Carlisle next time out. Travelled well, but wasn't quite good enough to beat horses such as Solar Spirit, Sunnyside Tom, I'm Super Too, and Academy Blues. These aren't terrible handicappers so it wasn't a bad effort under the circumstances. Opus Maximus won again, storming up the rail over 9f at Carlisle last time out to beat the decent Camerooney by 1 1/4l. I still think 7f at Beverley will suit him ideally, though, and can go very well again. Clearly in good heart, and even though this doesn't look a terrible claimer, he can take it. The soft ground is naturally a concern, but he's gone okay on it before (from limited tries), and the fact he stays further is beneficial in the circumstances.