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Bathtime For Rupert

Rupert's Racing Thread

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.30 Haydock - 2pts win Novellen Lad @ 6/1 (Bet365) - BOG Novellen Lad ran some really good races in competitive sprints last year, but 3 of his final 4 starts in 2010 came on unsuitable softish ground. Novellen Lad is very much a horse who likes to hear his hooves rattle, and this was proved when scoring in pleasing fashion last time out at Newbury. He shaped as if needing his first run of the season for his new yard at Newmarket in May, but was also on the wrong part of the track, and he had little chance in all honesty. I fancied him to bounce back on his 2nd start for Willie Musson, and he really did, to score by a head from the fast-finishing Macs Power. Novellen Lad was slowly away that day, but travelled and picked up well having been switched at the start. It was a top ride from Kieron Fallon, and was probably worth more than the diminishing margin he won by. Based on that, a 4lb rise may not be enough to stop him going in again. He's run well off higher marks in the past, also, so it's not a massive concern for me. Another huge positive for the horse is his record around Haydock. 15241 is his form at the track when the ground has been good or quicker. He's an ultra-consistent horse when conditions are in his favour, with impressive form figures of 64114033115520414501 on good or better turf, and I think he'll take the beating once more tomorrow. Willie Musson recorded 2-16 in May (when Novellen Lad won), but improved to 4-23 in June, and is in great form at the minute. His form figures in the last fortnight read 34413724141 (excluding today) so this just adds to the chances of Novellen Lad. He's a likeable horse who showed a good attitude to win last time, and I'm not sure a 4lb rise is going to stop him.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Back to being frustrated. Kingsgate Native was poor. Start Right got going too late, winner had flown, 2nd. The Fonz was cantering just behind the front 2 but Ahern went for the rail run, got no run, should have been placed at least but ended up 6th. Really disappointing. Haven't seen the Novellen Lad race but was unplaced.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.00 Carlisle - 1pt e/w Ryedane @ 10/1 (Bet365) - BOG Ryedane is no spring chicken at the age of 9, but showed he still had ability when 2nd at Beverley on his penultimate outing. He chased home Choc'A'Moca on that occasion, under Lance Betts, who is on board again today. The pair were nicely clear that day of the 3rd horse, and the winner confirmed the form when scooting in next time out. Ryedane was disappointing at Carlisle last time out, but the ground was soft, and the company was stronger than it is today. He's won 15 times in his career to date, with only one of those slightly on the easy side of good, so he's clearly a horse who goes best on a sound surface - which he gets today. His record at Carlisle is also very encouraging. On good ground or better, his form figures at the track read 90613113. It's an apprentice handicap so it's good he's got a jockey on board who has gone well on the horse before, and a capable rider all the same. Betts is experienced and I'm confident he'll give Ryedane a good ride. Ryedane won off a higher mark in September so I don't think he's impossibly handicapped, and although there's several in with chances, he certainly has conditions to suit.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Final one today. 7.30 Carlisle - 1pt e/w Sunnyside Tom @ 7/1 (Bet365) - BOG Sunnyside Tom does most of his best running on a sound surface, so can be excused his poor run last time. He was also forced wide and it's probably worth ignoring. Prior to that, he ran a very respectable 2nd to Tariq Too at Haydock - only beaten 3/4l. I think that's as good form as on offer in this race, and with his track form, he must have a huge chance on better ground today. 15411231 is his career form at the track on decent ground, so he's clearly suited by it, and looks a knocking e/w bet to me.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread -28.4pts 3.20 Bellewstown - 2pts e/w Elusive Award @ 8/1 (VC) Elusive Award drops down in class today, and I give him a very good chance of getting a win under his belt. He ran poorly last time, but that was in a valuable race where the winner received 31k whereas today, the prize is just 9.4k for the victor. Prior to that run, he ran an absolute cracker when staying on to be 3rd at the Curragh. The winner was Super Say, who went on to run in the Hunt Cup at Ascot (albeit poorly), and the 2nd horse was Hujaylea - who is a 105 rated animal and winner of a big handicap last year (one horse behind that day was Start Right). That run looks well above this level for Elusive Reward, and looks a huge price considering. If you can excuse his latest run, he must go close. He's typically consistent so I don't mind forgiving him that. He pulled clear with the winner 3 starts ago, and I can't see a bad run if he's fully wound up.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Brighton - 1pt e/w Buxton @ 15/2 (Boyles) Buxton has won 3 times down in Brighton, and I'm hopeful he can go well in a quest for course win number four. He doesn't win all that often, but was the ready winner of a handicap here in mid-April when scoring by a comfortable 2 1/4l ahead of April Fool back in 2nd - a horse who has thrived since. Buxton then went down by only a head to Mandhooma, who reopposes today. Buxton was closing as the line came, and shaped as if with a 3lb swing at the weights, he'd get the better of the Peter Hiatt trained mare. If she can get her head in front, it would be her highest winning mark, so it's enough to swerve her. Buxton has won off higher marks in the past - albeit in 2008 - but I don't think there's anything to suggest he can't score off a mark of 74 (same mark as when narrowly beaten by Mandhooma). His last two starts have been a little bit concerning, however. He was a well-beaten 7th at Lingfield, but did come wide, and also he's done all his turf winning at Brighton. He did disappoint slightly back at his favoured track last time out, but it was a hotter race than the one he competes in today. He met three rivals in the 80s, and was the second-lowest rated horse in the line-up. It was a difficult race for him, even in a handicap. Swiss Cross won the race - and subsequently franked the form by winning a valuable race at Epsom. Magical Speedfit won next time out also, and 5th placed Aye Aye Digby has scored since. The competition today doesn't look so fearsome, and with 9 runners set to go to post, it looks a sound e/w bet. He's had 6 weeks off or so to freshen him up and has gone well after a break previously. Given that Mandhooma is a 100/30 favourite, if Buxton is as well as he was when chasing that one home, then 15/2 could be made to look rather silly.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.15 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Enigma Code @ 10/1 (Bet365) - BOG Enigma Code has only won twice from 28 starts, but both of these have come on the all-weather over at Dundalk. He's clearly better on the polytrack surface, and is rated 9lbs higher than on the turf. His reappearance effort last year can be forgiven. It was a very hot race facing horses in the 90s and was 16lbs out of the weights! It was no surprise to see him a well-beaten last. He returned to more favourable company on his next start, but yet again, it ended up being a hot race. It was won by Banna Boirche, off a mark of 68. He's now rated 106 on the all-weather! Several of the other horses in front of the 8th placed Enigma Code have also gone on to much higher marks, so a 4 1/2l defeat might not have been so bad as it first appeared. He ran a solid 4th over 6f at Dundalk on his next appearance, having been drawn out in the car park, and staying on well. His next all-weather run ended in victory, when drawing clear with Inwood, to beat him by 1/2l. This was over 7f and the runner up went on to better things also. He ran off high turf marks after this, before returning to the track in February, in England, at Lingfield. He was sent off a big price, but ran okay given it was his first run in 6-7 months. He finished 5l behind the winner - Qadar - in 9th. The tongue-tie was fitted for the first time that day, and it clearly had no detrimental effect when Enigma Code was only denied by 1/2l at Kempton in March behind Dvinsky. The reopposing Co Dependent was also behind that day, and all in all, it was a very pleasing effort. He went back over to Dundalk soon after and was sent off joint favourite, but weakened into midfield, and was reported to be lame afterwards. Obviously the run can be forgiven, and hopefully a break of around 3 months will have got him sorted out, but still not be too long to mean he's desperate for the run. The race doesn't look anything special, and the Wolverhampton track should suit. He drops into a claimer, and is 2nd best in at the weights. I think he'll have a huge chance of making the frame so long as he is fully fit.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.45 Wolverhampton - 0.5pts e/w Crimson Queen @ 25/1 (Bet365) - BOG Crimson Queen is drawn out very wide, but in a weak handicap, I think she could be a touch overpriced. Her two best runs have come on the all-weather, when running 3rd, and winning, in two maidens late last year. She pulled clear with Sparking when winning, a horse who ran consistently sound races on the a/w since. It's likely she needed the run at Nottingham 4 months later, before putting in a sound effort when 4th of 8 at Warwick. The 2nd and 3rd horses have won since, and with the race being over 7f, it wasn't a bad effort as she seems a better horse at shorter. Her run last time out can be ignored on soft ground at Chepstow. It's no surprise she didn't handle it given she's by Red Ransom, and it means she's a big price today. Back on the all-weather and a suitable trip of 6f means she must have a little bit of a chance. Red Ransom's progeny do best on the all-weather in terms of strike rate, and as long as Crimson Queen gets out of her wide box well, she could go well at a big price. Roy Brotherton's only runner in the last fortnight went well - only beaten a length - and I hope he has another sound effort to his name after today.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 8.40 Southwell - 1pt e/w Takajan @ 16/1 (Bet365) - BOG Takajan has done all of his winning over this c&d, getting his head in front 3 times from 31 efforts. He's 2lbs above his last winning mark - which came in February of this year. He showed little in March before being prepped for a return to this surface over a mile on soft turf last time out. He was last, but conditions were well out of his favour, as he's never managed to place in 9 runs on turf. The main reason I'm going for this horse is the form of the Mark Brisbourne yard. When Takajan flopped in March, Brisbourne was struggling for form. He showed a 22% strike rate in February but only 5% in March/April before a measly 2% in May. However, Brisbourne has shot into form now with 6 winners from 26 runners in June, showing a 23% strike rate and a level stakes profit of +£67.00. I think this could be a bit of a plot, and now this course and distance winner is fit, he gets his conditions, for a yard in much better form that previously.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Update after today. 3.50 Catterick - 2pts win Bay Of Fires @ 6/1 (Hills) Fast Shot is deservedly popular in this race, but I think Bay Of Fires could well upset the favourite today. A mark of 70 looks exploitable to me, having previously gone well off a mark of 75 at this track in October. Her form at Catterick looks very solid indeed. 135 is her career record here, with the 5 coming with John Fahy on board. Silvestre De Sousa is on board today, who managed a win and a close 3rd with her at the track. Inbetween those Catterick efforts, she was outclassed in valuable handicaps. She can be forgiven her flop on her seasonal return at Newcastle this year over a mile, before putting in a solid effort at Carlisle in a race that worked out quite nicely. She was beaten 6l but shaped as if still capable. Was sent off as a joint favourite at Newcastle last time out, and travelled quite well over 7f on soft ground. However, she was badly on the wrong part of the track, and ended up fading well away, eased when having no chance. She was keen at Carlisle on her penultimate start, and I think the return to 6f on good ground will suit her. I think conditions will be bang in her favour, and she can go very close.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Lingfield - 4pts win Country Road @ 9/4 (BlueSQ) Country Road may not be best in at the weights for this seller, but I think he's very much the one to beat. You can effectively rule this race down to 3 runners unless there's a big shock, and with Fly By White failing to beat a rival the last twice, and having stamina doubts, I narrow it down to 2, even if the Hannon runner is marginal favourite. Country Road was in good form last year despite being a hard-puller, as he scored twice at Wolverhampton amongst other very sound efforts. It was a similar story on his return to the track when very fresh under an inexperienced rider. Interestingly, he drops down to 10f for the first time in 8 runs, and it might just help him settle a bit better. I think the more experienced Adam Kirby will probably let him bowl along out in front, and put his stamina to good use. It's not a very competitive race, and I think he's the most likely winner, at a nice price under the circumstances in my eyes.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Country Road ran just as I expected. I genuinely couldn't see anything else winning. Viewing's attitude is shocking it seems, and Fly By White is out of form and doesn't seemingly stay. Settled better and battled on well. Bay Of Fires was nearly given the perfect ride from De Sousa. Looked the likely winner a furlong out, and for a moment I thought she was gonna hold on, but just was run down in the last stride or two. Hugely disappointed as: 1. I thought that a nice double would kick-start me, and the thread off. 2. I had a nice double on the pair. Kempton tonight possibly.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 8.50 Kempton - 2pts win Frances Stuart @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) If this Andrew Balding trained filly shows anything like her form as a 3yo, she must have a big chance here. After a promising debut, she showed that she acted on the polytrack when only finding Titbit 1/2l too strong at Wolverhampton on her 2nd start. That horse is currently rated 84 so not a bad animal to be running in a Wolverhampton maiden. She confirmed this promise when routing a field from the front by 3 1/4l at Salisbury, from the progressive Easy Terms - who has rattled up a 4 timer this year. Frances Stuart returned to the same c&d next time but only found Field Day too good. Brian Meehan's filly is smart and rated 105 now. Frances Stuart returned to the track in a valuable Ascot race won by Law Of The Range in May, and although she was well-beaten, it should have blown away the cobwebs, and entitles her to go very close tonight. The Balding yard are in very good form, and this drop in class gives her a huge chance.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 7.20 Kempton - 1pt e/w Quasi Congaree @ 20/1 (VC) Competitive 6f sprint in which I think Ian Wood's gelding is a touch overpriced. Quasi Congaree is typically consistent, and both of his wins have come over this trip of 6f -at Lingfield and Goodwood. He went very close off 78 and 79 on the all-weather last winter, and runs today off a fair mark of 75. He returned to the track at Doncaster this year when he'll have needed the run and was well beaten. Showed much more at Windsor last time when behind Soap Wars. He finished 5th of 13 and it was a decent race - Stevie Gee, Ivory Silk and Macdillon also ahead, have all run blinders since. He should be fully primed today, back on the all-weather. Course and distance holds no fears, and he should get a good pace to run at today.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Wahey. Quasi Congaree leads, is still there a furlong out, 4th. Get in there! :wall:wall:wall:wall If I wanted a piece of work ridden on Frances Stuart I wouldn't have backed it. A ride next time Jimmy please. So fed up at the moment.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread On holiday for a week from Saturday, so hopefully will have something to cheer about before then! 2.25 Newmarket - 5pts win Mijhaar @ 5/2 (Hills) My first 5pt bet of the thread I think, but it's well deserved in my opinion. I think 5/2 is a cracking price for a horse who looks sure to be rated in the 100s very soon. It may well be a good handicap, but this is a group horse in my eyes. Ran a cracking race on debut when green behind the useful Fulgur, before returning to the track with a highly impressive win at Haydock in May. He galloped clear and looked like a proper animal with that performance - winning by 7 lengths from Timeline in second. Timeline won its next start by 5 lengths so the Roger Varian trained colt definitely beat something. He went to Ascot for the King Edward VII stakes, but found a top-class horse in Nathaniel. Many think he would have won the Derby if entered, so it was no disgrace to lose on the day. He was keen, and it took its toll when fading from 2nd into a respectable 4th in the latter stages of the race. The step back to 10f looks right up his street. Hopefully he can settle a bit better and I think he's going to be very difficult to beat. I really thought this horse was top-class after his maiden win, and I still think he'll go on to be very good. He's a group horse running in a handicap, and I think he'll win this. Roger Varian continues in great form with 6 winners from 17 runners, with a further 4 placed.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.25 Warwick - 1pt e/w Star In Flight @ 7/1 (Bet365) - BOG Star In Flight has to give weight all round as the only 4yo in the field, but I'm not sure this is a great maiden, and can definitely have his say. He ran okay on debut when 3rd of 7 at Wolverhampton. The 2nd and 4th have gone on to go quite well since - notably Loyalty - who is a useful all-weather handicapper now. He was entitled to need the run at Bath over 12f last time out, and travelled into the race quite nicely before just not managing to find a finishing kick to match the front 3. However, he ran to the line, and the first 4 were clear. I don't think it was a terrible maiden by any means, and it's not guaranteed that the track suited ideally. He drops down in trip today which might just allow him to finish with a bit more of a rattle. Brick Dust isn't 100% sure to stay to me, Canna looks very dodgy nowadays, and whilst may win, isn't a betting proposition. Mungo Park has an absence to overcome, and Lady Elsie is getting dangerously close to being exposed. I think he's got a solid e/w chance here under Darryl Holland - who is brilliant from the front - and might just use these tactics on Star In Flight. Brian Meehan is going well and hopefully this one will too.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

3.25 Warwick - 1pt e/w Star In Flight @ 7/1 (Bet365) - BOG Star In Flight has to give weight all round as the only 4yo in the field, but I'm not sure this is a great maiden, and can definitely have his say. He ran okay on debut when 3rd of 7 at Wolverhampton. The 2nd and 4th have gone on to go quite well since - notably Loyalty - who is a useful all-weather handicapper now. He was entitled to need the run at Bath over 12f last time out, and travelled into the race quite nicely before just not managing to find a finishing kick to match the front 3. However, he ran to the line, and the first 4 were clear. I don't think it was a terrible maiden by any means, and it's not guaranteed that the track suited ideally. He drops down in trip today which might just allow him to finish with a bit more of a rattle. Brick Dust isn't 100% sure to stay to me, Canna looks very dodgy nowadays, and whilst may win, isn't a betting proposition. Mungo Park has an absence to overcome, and Lady Elsie is getting dangerously close to being exposed. I think he's got a solid e/w chance here under Darryl Holland - who is brilliant from the front - and might just use these tactics on Star In Flight. Brian Meehan is going well and hopefully this one will too.
God that took a lifetime to come. Went off 9/1 as well. So needed.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.50 Epsom - 3pts win Bayleyf @ 2/1 (Bet365) First of all, I think Bayleyf and Esentepe's odds should be reversed, as I strongly feel that John Best's horse will get the better of Richard Hannon's this evening. Bayleyf put up a terrific effort on debut, going into many notebooks when battling keenness and greenness (excuse me if those words don't exist!) to chase home the very smart Gatepost at Folkestone over 5f. Shaped as if needing a step up in trip. Gatepost was a huge eyecatcher himself in the Coventry having been switched (taking a longer course) to finish 5th. This is after readily securing a valuable York race. Bayleyf went off a much shorter price at Ascot on his next start, but probably didn't have the race run to suit. He finished 3rd of 7 - beaten 1 3/4l. However, this race worked out well in the end. The winner, North Star Boy, ran 7th in the Coventry (and 4th today). The 2nd, Lethal Force, was 4th in the Coventry, and the 4th, Caledonian Spring, was midfield in the Windsor Castle. Bayleyf himself went to Ascot in the Windsor Castle, and ran a cracker at a big price I thought. I put him up that day, and having been outpaced, he stayed on again to be 7th of 24. Frederick Engels boosted the form today. Esentepe has the habit of finding one too good, and I think it'll be the case again today should John Best's colt handle the Epsom track. It looks a 2 horse race, and I'm happy with a price of 2/1.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 7.25 Epsom - 1pt win Pelham Crescent @ 8/1 (Hills) Pelham Crescent might not be the best horse in the race, but I have sufficient doubts over the field to make him my selection tonight. Mister Angry is out of form, New Code has a question to answer after his good form was halted at Goodwood last time. He also holds doubts about the course for me. Ramona Chase has a very poor strike rate and is very much opposable at 1m4f as I feel he's better over the 10f trip. He does go well here, but I reckon his effort could flatten out as the climb the hill. Dancing Storm hasn't won for 3 years, and Silverglas hasn't run over this far before. It leaves me with Pelham Crescent, who holds no secrets, and should run his race. Before I even checked his course form, I thought he would be suited by the track tonight. He likes to come late, and the downhill run should really suit him before a climb to the line. He has won at Goodwood and also went very close early in his career at this very track, so there are no concerns as expected there. He won over 10f at Ffos Las two starts ago, before a solid effort in 2nd at Windsor. He was keen last time after being slowly away at Haydock, and that blip can be forgiven. He's largely consistent, and even though he seems handicapped to the hilt, I'm not sure the horses in this race will necessarily run to their respective marks. He's back up to 12f which is no concern given he's won 4 times over that distance. David Probert is a good young jockey, and I think this horse might be able to pick up the pieces if the rest of the field don't bounce back into form.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Bayleyf won as I expected. Went off quite keen in front but was the best horse in the race. Not sure the race really panned out for Pelham Crescent. I hoped he would be settled in the rear but actually went off tracking the leader, and just was outrun in the final furlong. +5pts on the evening, so -25.6pts altogether now. A better day, and hopefully more to come now. It would look a lot better if Mijhaar had won, though!

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