Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Looking forward to tomorrow. Especially for the 1m2f maiden at Newmarket. Been waiting for one horse to run for quite a while now, so hopefully he won't be taken out overnight! (I joke, but it wouldn't surprise me!). Unfortunately it looks a hot maiden, but at least it makes him a nice each-way price...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.10 Newmarket - 2pts e/w Strategic Bid @ SP Strategic Bid is around 10/1 on the exchanges and I'll be pleased if he goes off as big as that (although market support would be telling). I have been waiting for this horse to run, and constantly been frustrated with him being entered and withdrawn from maidens. Hopefully he'll definitely go tomorrow, even if it does look a hot maiden with a tough horse to beat in Thimaar and several newcomers from powerful yards. Anyway, this is what I jotted down in my "horses to follow":

This expensive Selkirk colt held a Derby entry for a time for Paul Cole, despite making his first start in mid April. He was quite fancied that day at Newbury when sent off at 13/2, and even if he didn't give a payout to his backers, they will have seen certain promise from this well-regarded type. Not much went right for the horse, who screamed of inexperience throughout the race. He was slowly away, then proceeded to tug Jamie Spencer's arms out for at least half the contest, before making hugely eyecatching progress on the wide outside to challenge the leaders going strongly. His inexperience and earlier exertions took their toll in the end, as he battled greenness, isolated on the wide outside, to finish 5th of 13. He kept on to the line - all in all a highly promising debut. The race looks decent. Some mixed pieces of form coming out of it. Colombian finished 3rd and has since won well at Chester and most recently ran an absolutely belting race to be 4th in the French Derby. Quadrant was narrowly ahead of Strategic Bid and won a maiden next time out before flopping, and Voodoo Prince, behind Strategic Bid narrowly, looked promising when winning at Haydock on his next run. Was a bit unlucky last time out in a better race but could only manage a 9l 5th of 11. It still looks plenty strong enough and I imagine/hope that Strategic Bid will go more like the way of Colombian. The exciting thing is that he is going to be better over longer trips. His pedigree just stinks of middle distances and further. I'm really excited by the prospect of this horse going up in trip. Clearly he's well regarded to have been entered in the Derby, and was well backed on debut. He may well have his problems, and it's unknown when he'll go next, but I will be keeping a close eye on matters.

He's clearly well regarded by connections, and he gets a step up in trip today. Also the tongue-tie to help him settle I hope. I think he could be a very smart animal, so even with the nature of this maiden, I'm hopeful he can be very competitive. A couple of factors would be his near 3 month absence from the track, and the form of Paul Cole's yard. He has shown signs of coming back into a little bit of form, however, with a winner yesterday, and hopefully Strategic Bid will be able to run to his best tomorrow. Money came for him on debut, so it would be telling if it comes again tomorrow - although it might mean the SP I get is shorter than his price at the moment! Anyway, I wanted to get this posted nice and early. I think he's capable of running into a place at the very least, and if he is there or there abouts, he can go on to be a good horse, given this maiden looks quite decent.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 1.50 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Majestic Dubawi @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes) Minefield of a 6f sprint, but I think Mick Channon's filly by Dubawi (Did you guess?) is overpriced for the contest. Majestic Dubawi improved in three runs last year to win at Bath on her 2nd start readily - even though the race was nothing special whatsoever. However, she made another giant leap at Ayr in the Group 3 'Laundry Cottage Stud Firth Of Clyde Stakes' in September. She lied in 2nd throughout before kicking on, and showing a good turn of foot to draw clear - allowing none of the closers to get near here until the line. Her Bath win came on soft ground, and the Ayr win on good ground, so it wouldn't be too much of a concern should she encounter easier ground. The form of that race wasn't bad at all, with Ragsah, Barefoot Lady, Mortitia, and Rimth among those behind her that day. Didn't quite show so much in her first two starts of this season, however. She can be forgiven for her first run, which she was entitled to need, when running in a useful listed handicap behind Pausanias. The race was over 7f also, so it was new territory for the filly. The Irish 1000 Guineas proved too good for her on her next start - although again, this was over a mile when it seems she's best over sprint trips. She could only manage 11th of 15 but I'm quite happy to forgive her the effort. She went to York for a valuable sprint, in which many reoppose today. It was much more encouraging. Once asked to quicken, her response wasn't immediate on the quick ground, but stayed on quite nicely and pressed for places, before Martin Harley had to ride out a tender finish with the post near, having nowhere to go in front of her. She wouldn't have finished much closer, but would have been 6th I think as opposed to 7th, and it was a good effort considering she was only 3l off the winner at the death. The stands rail appeared to hold an advantage - which aided Lexi's Hero on that occasion, and that horse might not be able to win again under the penalty without the benefit of the best part of the track. It was very close behind the winner, so you couldn't say they will all finish in a different order today. Plenty have chances, but I just think she's a very big price on her 6f form. If the ground is a little easier it should suit her, as she's unlikely to get outpaced, and I can see Hugh Bowman riding her very close to the pace. She's drawn quite central which can often prove to be advantageous in these big field sprints, and I think she can run a nice race. The first 6 at York were drawn in 18, 16, 2, 15, 3 and 20 respectively. High draws were clearly favoured, so for Majestic Dubawi to come from stall 7 it just makes her run look a little bit better. Mick Channon continues in decent form without having as many winners as he deserves as his horses are running sound races on the whole. Such a tricky race, but I think this filly might be a little bit of value.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.45 York - 1pt e/w Awsaal @ 14/1 (Bet365) - BOG John Dunlop's colt had a fruitful 2010, getting off the mark at Salisbury after a promising reappearance when 3rd to Desert Myth at Newmarket. He beat Ashbrittle by a head at Salisbury over 12f, with the pair a mile clear from the third. Ashbrittle looked a useful staying prospect when winning at Doncaster. He made a solid reappearance at Haydock this year, but just struggled to compete at Royal Ascot behind Veiled. The ground was quicker when Awsaal headed to Haydock in May of last year, and he improved again to scamper clear to win by 3 1/2l. Private Story finished 2nd. He was put away until he raced over tomorrow's c&d in May of this year, and was entitled to need the run after a year off the track. He was sent off a 10/1 chance but never got involved. Not too disheartening given his absence. However, despite the formbook showing a '9' next to his most recent run, I think it was a very fair effort, behind Fox Hunt at Royal Ascot. Given that the soft ground was new to him, it may be that he's a better horse on better ground, so it could even be a very sound run indeed. He definitely showed enough to suggest he's not done with yet. Wasn't particularly fancied and was Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum's 3rd string in the race, but he travelled into the race very powerfully, and was just about the last horse off the bridle. He looked a menace when switched inside in the home straight, but started to hang right, and ended up running down the inside of the track, which probably wasn't the place to be. He was also snatched up when beaten, and ended up being allowed to come home in his own time by Jim Crowley. He wouldn't have been competitive, but would have been a lot closer than the 11l margin he was beaten. The way he travelled suggested to me that this horse still retained plenty of ability, and a 9th placed finish out of 16 on soft ground wasn't a bad effort. He'll get better ground today and I think that could spark a bit more of a revival. This race looks quite a bit easier than the one he contested there, so the price looks excellent to me. John Dunlop's yard continues to tick along nicely, and I think this is overpriced.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Eddie Ahern* (Crowley on the mind having looked at Right Step :rollin)

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

3.45 York - 1pt e/w Awsaal @ 14/1 (Bet365) - BOG John Dunlop's colt had a fruitful 2010, getting off the mark at Salisbury after a promising reappearance when 3rd to Desert Myth at Newmarket. He beat Ashbrittle by a head at Salisbury over 12f, with the pair a mile clear from the third. Ashbrittle looked a useful staying prospect when winning at Doncaster. He made a solid reappearance at Haydock this year, but just struggled to compete at Royal Ascot behind Veiled. The ground was quicker when Awsaal headed to Haydock in May of last year, and he improved again to scamper clear to win by 3 1/2l. Private Story finished 2nd. He was put away until he raced over tomorrow's c&d in May of this year, and was entitled to need the run after a year off the track. He was sent off a 10/1 chance but never got involved. Not too disheartening given his absence. However, despite the formbook showing a '9' next to his most recent run, I think it was a very fair effort, behind Fox Hunt at Royal Ascot. Given that the soft ground was new to him, it may be that he's a better horse on better ground, so it could even be a very sound run indeed. He definitely showed enough to suggest he's not done with yet. Wasn't particularly fancied and was Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum's 3rd string in the race, but he travelled into the race very powerfully, and was just about the last horse off the bridle. He looked a menace when switched inside in the home straight, but started to hang right, and ended up running down the inside of the track, which probably wasn't the place to be. He was also snatched up when beaten, and ended up being allowed to come home in his own time by Jim Crowley. He wouldn't have been competitive, but would have been a lot closer than the 11l margin he was beaten. The way he travelled suggested to me that this horse still retained plenty of ability, and a 9th placed finish out of 16 on soft ground wasn't a bad effort. He'll get better ground today and I think that could spark a bit more of a revival. This race looks quite a bit easier than the one he contested there, so the price looks excellent to me. John Dunlop's yard continues to tick along nicely, and I think this is overpriced.

:clap:clap Following you in on that one, great price as well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Delighted with that. Travelled well again and picked up nicely :clap Yet again, though, tarnished rather. Strategic Bid never even gave me a run for my 4pts. What a waste :\ Unsteerable and just gutted. Anyway, hopefully we're on our way now...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread -25.6 Majestic Dubawi -2pts Strategic Bid -4pts Awsaal +16.8pts Daily P/L: +10.8pts Overall P/L: -14.8pts Will take a look at the evening racing shortly. Might be some then, and also tomorrow, but then nothing for a week.

[Monterosso]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread :clap Lovely.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.30 Chepstow - 2pts win Quinsman @ 9/2 (Hills) This is a horribly bad handicap over a mile and a half, but I feel that Quinsman is the one they all have to beat. For all that Holden Eagle may have caught the eye over shorter recently, he's never won a race from 18 attempts, and I think this trip stretches his stamina. He has to be taken on in my eyes. Put simply, there are question marks over all of these, but Quinsman takes quite a drop in grade today, and is now below his last winning mark. He won off 68 at Ffos Las in October, and even though he's been well beaten recently, he's been running in better races, and possibly 2 miles stretches him. This trip is one he certainly stays, and at least he is capable of getting his head in front. He's a 4 time winner from 24 starts so there's nothing wrong with his strike rate, and he can take this very modest race. He runs off 67 today with Jake Payne taking a further 3lbs off. John Moore is going quite well with a 20% strike rate so far in July, and hopefully this horse can improve his recent form to take this.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 7.35 Chepstow - 3pts win Galatian @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes) I really like the chances of this gelding trained by Rod Millman in this 6 runner handicap over 7f. Millman had an excellent June, and I'm hoping his form can continue through July. Galatian has run many good races, with excuses when beaten on his seasonal debut in both the last two seasons at Sandown and Windsor respectively. Other than that, he's been very solid in handicaps, and won twice over 6f and 5f at Leicester and Goodwood in the summer of last year. Following his reappearance this year, he stayed on to be 3rd behind Norville, and Flowing Cape, who both have flourished since. The latter 7lbs higher now, and Norville 21lbs higher. Galatian won next time out at Newmarket, proving this 7f trip was no inconvenience, when proving too good for Kingsdine, with a gap back to the 3rd. Kingsdine ran well on his only start since, and Galatian ran a sound enough race in a competitive 0-95 handicap when 7th of 16 behind Folly Bridge. This is a 0-85 and he should be much more at home tonight. I think he'll be tough to beat.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Well they were both awful. Can't quite believe how bad they were.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Possibly shorter write-ups here, but just some final selections until next weekend. 3.35 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Bated Breath @ 8/1 (Bet365) - BOG Roger Charlton has had a good time of it lately, recording 5 winners and 4 places from his last 16 runners - all in the last fortnight. He only had 5 winners in June, and 4 of those came after the 25th, so he's clearly hitting form at the right time for this. Bated Breath made rapid strides as a 3yo last year, winning each of his first three starts - culminating in a ready 3l win in a decent handicap at Haydock. He possibly found the softer conditions against him when 3rd of 10 behind Dafeef and Deacon Blues on the July course last August - although he was only beaten 3/4l in total having been sent off the 9/4 favourite. Both of the horses who beat him that day are useful, and the latter won the Wokingham this year at Royal Ascot. It was a similar story when Bated Breath went to Doncaster for a listed race - sent off at 7/4 but could only stay on steadily to finish a well-held 4th. Charlton only managed 3-29 in August, however, his worst strike rate of the season, so trainer form may have contributed to him disappointing. Bated Breath was hampered back at Doncaster and never got in the race when 10th of 14 on his return this year, but showed he still was very useful when getting the better of Society Rock at Haydock in May. He readily brushed aside his field at Windsor - with decent horses in behind with Triple Aspect, Libranno, Monsieur Chevalier, and Horseradish chasing him home. Libranno won a Group 3 since, and Monsieur Chevalier ran a blinder to be 2nd in the Golden Jubilee - with Society Rock, who Bated Breath also beat this season, winning the Group 1 event at Ascot. Bated Breath did run in the same race, and ran a creditable 5th of 16 - beaten 2 1/4l. He stayed on, but the ground was deemed soft that day, and Bated Breath's best runs have come seemingly on quicker ground. Whilst it could have some cut in it today, it's unlikely to be as soft as it was at Ascot, so I expect an improved performance. He's beaten proven Group horses this season already, and with ground to suit, the trainer in good form, and a draw in the middle, I think he's set to run a big race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.15 York - 0.5pts e/w Kings Gambit @ 33/1 (BlueSQ) Very tricky 10f heritage handicap, but Kings Gambit to me looks well overpriced with conditions back in his favour today. Tom Tate's gelding is admirably consistent and tough, which is why he boasts a fine strike rate of 6-25 with 6 seconds and 2 thirds also. Last year, he was short-headed in this race by Wigmore Hall. Since then, he was only just worn down by Rio De La Plata and Rainbow Peak over a furlong shorter at York to be beaten by a length. Rainbow Peak won an Italian Group 1 afterwards and Rio De La Plata is widely regarded as a solid Group horse. Kings Gambit was then narrowly beaten twice again, by Vesuve at Ayr, and Waseet back at York. This season, he was again narrowly denied, this time at Ripon by St Moritz, on his seasonal reappearance. David Nicholls' gelding has been progressive, having won a big York handicap since, and going very close in a Group 3 at Epsom. Unfortunately Kings Gambit just keeps getting collared by nice horses. He battled on very bravely to deservedly get his head in front from Black Spirit in a Group 3 at Sandown in April, before disappointing in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot. The ground was soft and the trip was a mile-and-a-half, which probably didn't suit, and he can be excused when beaten by the very exciting Await The Dawn. I think he's capable of bouncing back in this easier company, even if it does mean he has a large weight to carry around the Knavesmire. The useful Dale Swift takes off a valuable 5lbs to ease the burden, and I think he can run very bravely at a big price. He clearly likes the track at York, with form figures of 35232, and I think he'll battle on well from a prominent position. Despite the big field, there seems plenty of hold-up performers, so he shouldn't get an absolute mad dash to contend with. I just think he's a big price. You should get a run for your money, and he's a likeable horse who can gallop into the frame. Who knows, he might just hold on!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.30 Ascot - 2pts win Macs Power @ 11/2 (Bet365) - BOG Yet another competitive handicap, this time over 6f, and Macs Power comes into this in great form, and should take the beating. James Fanshawe's gelding had a prolific year in 2010, winning two handicaps at Kempton and Doncaster before a sound effort at the latter track in a listed event. He started off in cracking form this year when only just failing to get to Novellen Lad, after finishing fast at Newbury. He's versatile when it comes to ground conditions, as he proved when running a belter under the circumstances in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. Macs Power was unfortunately drawn on the wrong side, and did all he could to finish 1st of 9 in the stands side group. All the action was on the far side, however, so he could never challenge in a 7 1/4l 8th. He was 2l clear of the next best horse on the near side, so he win his little race quite nicely, and would have gone close if racing on the favoured far side. He runs off the same mark today and it's hard to see why he could run poorly. He's drawn high again, but hopefully it would inconvenience him this time! He's run well on his last 7 starts, and James Fanshawe's horses are going well - 20% strike rate in June and 22% so far in July. These races are obviously very competitive, and it would be foolish to pile in, with horses such as Dungannon and Ritual in the mix. The latter looks a nice progressive sprinter especially, but has to prove he's good enough for this level. Horses can always bounce back to form in these events also, but everything points to another sound effort from Macs Power.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Bit of a shame to hit the crossbar last weekend. Kings Gambit didn't go, but Bated Breath ran a cracker to be 2nd - unfortunately only beaten by Dream Ahead, a horse I also quite fancied. Macs Power ran another creditable 3rd. Typically I had 4 alert emails this week. Three winners and a second. Argh! Anyway, back now, just one today I think without the time...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.40 Curragh - 5pts win Fire Lily @ 2/1 (Boylesports) A horse I really like, and posted this prior to her Ascot run.

5.00 Ascot - 2.5pts e/w Fire Lily @ 9/1 (PaddyPower) I wrote this after her debut success, as I put her down as one to follow... Quote: This horse really created a favourable impression when scoring in a 5f maiden on debut at Navan back on the 17th April. Went off 5/2 for David Wachman under Wayne Lordan and after not getting a clear run, burst between the eventual 2nd and 3rd to win going away by 1 1/4l from An Ghalanta and Danziger, the 2/1 favourite. The front three pulled 3l clear. Does have a speedy pedigree so it was to be expected, but the way she quickened was quite taking to put the race to bed. Her future does appear to be over sprint distances, and she is entered in the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) at the Curragh in early August. No news on where she may go in between, but I will keep an eye out. Unfortunately Danziger couldn't strongly frank the form at Dundalk last time, only narrowly losing. The front 2 did pull clear though. She since lost to two very smart colts by 4l - the winner of that event was Power - winner of the Coventry yesterday. David Wachman was actually initially disappointed she didn't win that race - showing how highly he clearly regards her. In the end, it looks a fair run, and now she's back amongst her own sex must have a big chance. A quick pace is sure to suit and is well drawn in 11. Unfortunately Shumoos could be different class, but at least she's drawn low which could make things a little trickier for her. Should have a great e/w chance though and I hope she can get her head in front, however difficult it may look right now.

She did get a very good pace which actually took her off her feet somewhat. However, she absolutely stormed home in the end to be 4th from a very uncompromising position, and this step up to 6f will be right down her street. Zip Top looks a nice prospect, but Wachman holds this filly in high regard, and has the experience over these. Form is rock solid, and I expect her to put in a very good showing this afternoon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Actually have another... 3.10 Curragh - 1pt e/w Kirinda @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) John Oxx's filly doesn't look particularly straight-forward, with a high head-carriage, but clearly has ability, and still looks unexposed having only raced 3 times in her career to date. She beat the smart Empowering on her debut, who won her next two, before flopping in higher grade events this season so far. Kirinda probably needed her next run after a break. She's quite a big filly so her pipes will have been well and truly opened after a 2l 3rd to Siren's Song at Navan. She ran quite a decent race last time out behind Banimpire in a blanket finish really, although the winner franked the form having won at Royal Ascot. She was only beaten 1 1/2l that day. Wild Wind, Vivacious Vivienne, and Sapphire have also run well since, so the form does stack up. That race was on good to firm ground and I'm not convinced Kirinda is seen at her best on that sort of ground. She won her debut on the polytrack, but she has quite a high knee action, suggesting she could be better with a bit of cut. The yielding ground today offers her that, and I think she's capable of running very well. The track should suit her and I think she's a solid e/w selection.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Murtagh!!!!!!!!!!!! :@:wall:wall:wall

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Fire Lily gave me the payout I had expected and hoped for as she ran out a nice winner in the end. She came there on the outside and really kept on well under pressure to forge clear to win by 2 1/2l. I think she's a really nice filly and can pick up some more big money now clearly very capable over 6f too. Went off 11/4 in the end but will pay out at 2/1 for the basis of the thread. Now, unfortunately, yet again when it looked like a really good day, Johnny Murtagh, who I usually have a lot of time for, really let me down on Kirinda. Went off at 7/1 and was held up well off the pace. I even wondered whether Murtagh thought something was wrong, or that he thought his mount had nothing left when he came to the 2f pole without moving, still a mile off the lead. However, he decided to go after her way too late. She showed a great turn of foot to power past most of the field, but had no chance of getting past the winner - another Oxx runner - and it was hugely disappointing to see her only finish runner-up. She should have won. Anyway, +10.6pts on the day, and now stand at funnily enough, -10.6pts overall.

[Spooner]

Fire Lily gave me the payout I had expected and hoped for as she ran out a nice winner in the end. She came there on the outside and really kept on well under pressure to forge clear to win by 2 1/2l. I think she's a really nice filly and can pick up some more big money now clearly very capable over 6f too. Went off 11/4 in the end but will pay out at 2/1 for the basis of the thread. Now, unfortunately, yet again when it looked like a really good day, Johnny Murtagh, who I usually have a lot of time for, really let me down on Kirinda. Went off at 7/1 and was held up well off the pace. I even wondered whether Murtagh thought something was wrong, or that he thought his mount had nothing left when he came to the 2f pole without moving, still a mile off the lead. However, he decided to go after her way too late. She showed a great turn of foot to power past most of the field, but had no chance of getting past the winner - another Oxx runner - and it was hugely disappointing to see her only finish runner-up. She should have won. Anyway, +10.6pts on the day, and now stand at funnily enough, -10.6pts overall.

Is Boylesports not a BOG bookmaker? If so then you should have 11/4 in the thread.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

Is Boylesports not a BOG bookmaker? If so then you should have 11/4 in the thread.

I've no idea. I'm an amateur in that regard. I tend to just play it safe unless I know for sure - same with 1/5 the odds! Is there an accurate list of BOG bookmakers anywhere?

[Haystacks]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Rupert, the BOG list is in rule 11 here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/bet-day-tables-july-2011-a-118635/#post1970049

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

Rupert, the BOG list is in rule 11 here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/bet-day-tables-july-2011-a-118635/#post1970049

Super - thanks a lot for that!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.45 Yarmouth - 1pt e/w Hereford Boy @ 6/1 (VC) - BOG Hereford Boy has eased down the weights since running off a mark of 80 last spring, and is starting to show some glimmers of form back down to a reasonable mark. He runs off 68 today - a mark he has defied 4 times in the past - so he clearly is capable of getting his head back in front after a string of losing efforts. Blinkers were applied for his two most recent efforts, when putting in a good performance when 3rd to Gracie's Games at Chepstow - staying on, and only beaten 1l, over 6f. He had to take a wide route at Windsor last time out, but again kept on, into a less dangerous 6 3/4l 5th of 12 behind Questionnaire - a horse who looks progressive and looks sure to be winning again soon. The blinkers are replaced by the cheekpieces today, with which his last 4 wins have come. He also gets a step up to 7f - which holds no issues whatsoever given he has previously won over a mile. The soft ground may pose question marks over some of the runners in the race - notably Rough Rock and Cuthbert on first glance - whilst Hereford Boy enjoys getting a little bit of cut, having won on soft and good to soft in the past. A couple are potentially unexposed, but this doesn't look the strongest contest, and I think Hereford Boy is just coming back into some form, and with conditions more in his favour this afternoon, can register his first turf win since 2008.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Ayr - 1pt e/w Hayek @ 10/1 (PaddyPower) - BOG I think this horse is well overpriced for this race today, given how much he's improved for the introduction of blinkers. He only showed glimpses of form prior to the application, but ran a very creditable 3rd at Redcar in late May behind Hambleton, before reversing that form with a ready victory at Hamilton - when coming from well back to win very nicely in the end by over a length. He only found Blues Jazz too good back over that course and distance next time out - and that horse won his only start since that victory also. Hayek went to Chester over a mile last time out, and ended up losing any hope at the start really. Chester is a track where speed out of the stalls and a good position tends to be vital, so for Hayek to be last away from stall 3, and ended up last on the inside, made it very difficult. He did keep on in the straight to be a 6l 7th of 12 behind Kingswinford, proving he should have no problems over 7f. He clearly is in good heart still, and the step back in trip, a more conventional track, and a more experienced pilot in David Allan should improve his chances today. Miss J Gillam was on board at Chester, and she was never, with all respect, going to get him competitive from his position. Tim Easterby continues in good form, and I'm quietly confident he'll have another good result here. The ground would be my only concern but hopefully he'll be fine on it.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.45 Yarmouth - 1pt e/w Memphis Man @ 8/1 (VC) - BOG Often around this time of year, it's difficult to assess soft ground races, but Memphis Man is well proven on this kind of surface, and remains well handicapped to strike. A winner off a mark of 75 in the past, David Evans' 8-year-old runs off 59 today with Richard Evans taking off a further 3lbs. With 8 runners lining up as things stand, he looks a very solid e/w bet to me at around the 8/1 mark, given his generally consistent nature. He always tends to be staying on, but has found it a little bit tougher in quicker conditions the last couple of races - even if he did win on good to firm at Salisbury in May. He's essentially 4lbs higher including the respective claims today for that 2l victory, so I'm not concerned about his handicap mark. He didn't get going the pace required on his most recent 6f starts, and his latest run can be well and truly ignored over a mile having come wide at Chester in a Lady Amateur Riders race. All 12 of his career wins have come over sprinting trips. 5 of his wins have come when the ground has been softer than good, and does have a course and distance success to his name. Conditions look suitable today. Despite David Evans' horses not firing on all cylinders recently, you can't say he's bang out of form, so it isn't too much of a concern for me. It's not a strong race, which gives me hope that Memphis Man will be quick enough to pick them up in the closing stages of the race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Lingfield - 2pts e/w Imjin River @ 11/2 (Bet365) - BOG This is a pretty standard 6f handicap on the Lingfield polytrack, but I'm quite keen on Mark Tompkins' gelding in the contest. He has a wide draw to contend with, but this doesn't usually hinder horses as much as at other all-weather tracks such as Wolverhampton. He doesn't need to be up with the pace either so hopefully Tom Queally will be able to get him tucked in. On the all-weather, Imjin River has only run on three previous occasions - winning twice and coming 3rd on the other occasion (wins at Kempton and Southwell). It's clearly a surface he enjoys and I think the return to the polytrack will really suit today. He had excuses on his first two runs of this season, having returned after a long break at Sandown over 5f before probably finding the ground a little on the slow side (when holding every chance) at Newmarket. That race was quite a bit stronger than this one, also. Looked to be coming back into form when staying on at a big price at Carlisle, having been posted wide, finishing 4th of 10, behind the in form Needie McCredie. Confirmed this promise with a close 3rd last time out at Yarmouth, when only beaten 1 1/2l behind Captainrisk and Steel City Boy. He's won off 72 on the all-weather before, and run okay off 78 after that, so he's got a fair mark of 70 now he's back on the all-weather and clearly in form.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Poor, but really don't rate Queally at all.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5.00 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Requisite @ 14/1 (Bet365) - BOG Ian Wood's mare is typically consistent on the all-weather, registering 4 wins and 5 placings from 26 starts on the artificial surfaces. However, it doesn't tell the full story, as she's often running well but finishing just outside of the frame. She was running well in December last year, but failed to spark on her reappearance at Newbury in June this year. She finished last of 9 behind Bakoura, but will have needed the outing, and even though her ratings suggest otherwise, I think she's better on the all-weather, and will be much more at home today. Her running style suits the fast-finishing bias that often exists at Lingfield, as she'll be coming from off the pace. It's a competitive race so there should be pace on, and with the blinkers on, she can charge into the frame late in the day. Ian Wood's horses have been running well enough of late, and I think this mare can run a good race at a price today.