Rupert's Racing Thread

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.50 Goodwood - 2pts win Chachamaidee @ 5/1 (VC) - BOG I think this price is quite generous for a filly with rock solid form in the book. The hood has been applied for her latest two runs and it seems to have got a little bit more out of her, and I think she has a huge chance now. Her runs this year have been excellent, as her first run can be easily excused having probably needed it, and still ran well enough to be 3rd of 11 behind I'm A Dreamer over a trip that probably just stretched her. Her first run with the headgear saw her get her head in front at York when beating Kakatosi by 1 1/2l. Her run in the Windsor Forest stakes at Royal Ascot was also very good. She travelled like a dream in the rear and looked the likely winner before swamped by Lolly For Dolly's surging run up the stands rail. It was still a strong effort and suggested the step back to 7f won't inconvenience her at all. First City was 3rd and has franked the form since and so has the 4th horse, Sajjhaa, so it's working out well, and I think it's the best piece of form in the race today. She's third in on official ratings, but I couldn't take the gamble on Memory, and Maqaasid was well beaten last time in a race which Windsor Forest runners did well in. I think Sir Henry Cecil's filly will take some beating.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5.25 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Bold Bidder @ 12/1 (VC) - BOG I think Kevin Ryan's runner in this 5f sprint is overpriced from a draw allowing him to attack, and in first time blinkers. His running style should suit the track and is drawn against the stands rail. He's been in good form this year, but is a horse who needs quick ground, and that's what he gets today after some weaker efforts on unsuitable ground. After a very respectable return to the track at Doncaster, given the fact he probably needed the run, he only found Ahtoug 3/4l too strong at Chester. A useful horse of Godolphin's. Bold Bidder was then 2nd again, beaten by Barnet Fair at Musselburgh. That horse has run well in some bigger handicaps since. His most recent two starts can safely be ignored in my opinion as they were on ground softer than good. One was a listed event at Ayr won by the smart Margot Did, and then he was beaten 4 1/2l at Chester by Shoshoni Wind. Today conditions are back in his favour and he looks off a mark he's well up to winning off, and I think the blinkers might just focus him a bit more. He should attack from his rail position, and might just be tough to peg back on ground which he'll love.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread More frustration. Close 3rd @ 20's :(

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread He really deserves a big race. Gutted it wasn't today. +7.1pts.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Very smooth success from Chacha! :clap +17.1pts with Bold Bidder to come.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Bold Bidder went off too quick and the closers dominated in the end. +15.1pts now. A good, but frustrating Glorious Goodwood so far. Plenty of big-priced places, not enough winners.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 7.30 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Hot Spark @ 14/1 (Hills) - BOG I think this price is too big for a horse with some decent form over 7f. His price probably reflects his run last time out but there are plenty of excuses for that, and with conditions more in his favour tonight, can go a lot better. Both wins to his name to date have come over 7f on decent ground so in that regard he'll be well suited to the race tonight. He won by 2l over c&d this time last year off a mark of 77 and his runs since have suggested he's capable of winning again off 84. He finished his campaign last year with a solid 2nd at Newmarket in a decent race behind Bullwhip on ground probably softer than ideal, and then returned this year running a cracking race behind the good a/w horse Tevez (and also on the turf now) at Kempton, going down 1/2l. Last time out he couldn't build on that but the ground conditions were soft, the trip was a mile, and it was a strange race with runners racing on different parts of the track. It's well worth ignoring, and if returning to the form of his Kempton run, he is no 14/1 shot here.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Ran well enough but I think he was on the wrong part of the track. +13.1pts

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.05 Goodwood - 1.5pts e/w Novellen Lad @ 14/1 (Bet365) - BOG I posted this prior to Novellen Lad's Haydock run:

4.30 Haydock - 2pts win Novellen Lad @ 6/1 (Bet365) - BOG Novellen Lad ran some really good races in competitive sprints last year, but 3 of his final 4 starts in 2010 came on unsuitable softish ground. Novellen Lad is very much a horse who likes to hear his hooves rattle, and this was proved when scoring in pleasing fashion last time out at Newbury. He shaped as if needing his first run of the season for his new yard at Newmarket in May, but was also on the wrong part of the track, and he had little chance in all honesty. I fancied him to bounce back on his 2nd start for Willie Musson, and he really did, to score by a head from the fast-finishing Macs Power. Novellen Lad was slowly away that day, but travelled and picked up well having been switched at the start. It was a top ride from Kieron Fallon, and was probably worth more than the diminishing margin he won by. Based on that, a 4lb rise may not be enough to stop him going in again. He's run well off higher marks in the past, also, so it's not a massive concern for me. Another huge positive for the horse is his record around Haydock. 15241 is his form at the track when the ground has been good or quicker. He's an ultra-consistent horse when conditions are in his favour, with impressive form figures of 64114033115520414501 on good or better turf, and I think he'll take the beating once more tomorrow. Willie Musson recorded 2-16 in May (when Novellen Lad won), but improved to 4-23 in June, and is in great form at the minute. His form figures in the last fortnight read 34413724141 (excluding today) so this just adds to the chances of Novellen Lad. He's a likeable horse who showed a good attitude to win last time, and I'm not sure a 4lb rise is going to stop him.

I am not too concerned by his effort, which on the book looks moderate. He was beaten nearly 7l in 8th of 15, but that doesn't tell the story. He was held up in the rear but travelled really sweetly and made smooth headway with about 2 and a half furlongs to run. He looked a big threat but when Eddie Ahern wanted to ask him to quicken, he was short of room and was continually blocked of a clear run. Any momentum was just about gone, and by the time he got him free right on the stands side rail, the race had gone. He did keep on but it was difficult for him to quicken twice. If he gets a clear run through tomorrow I think he has a really good chance. Kieren Fallon replaces Ahern, which is no bad thing especially given Fallon gave the horse a fine ride to win at Newbury. He gets the quick ground and is drawn high which I imagine will suit. One concern is the track but if he handles it fine then I think he's one they all have to fear. I don't think this race is absolutely brilliant for a class 2 handicap and I am really hopeful of a big run. My only other concern is the form of the Willie Musson yard, but he did at least have a recent winner. Hopefully this lad is in tip-top shape.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.35 Goodwood - 2pts win Harlestone Times @ 13/2 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Harlestone Times looked a horse to keep on the right side of after rattling up 3 wins from 4 races, with the only defeat coming after a several month absence. It was always likely he would take a bit of time to get into full stride in his career given his pedigree, which is very much middle-distance influenced. He was always staying on over shorter trips but it took a step up to 10f to get off the mark. That was at Goodwood, and he got the better of Fanditha. That horse has gone on this season to run well in listed events. Harlestone Times was sent up in trip again to 1m4f at Brighton, and as expected, destroyed his field by 5l. He went up 10lbs for that and didn't run again until April this year at Epsom. It was a highly encouraging return to the track when chasing home Sunny Game. That horse hasn't been seen since, but Rock A Doodle Doo was 3rd and then won at Ascot before running really well at the same track in the Duke of Edinburgh stakes. Zigato was 5th at Epsom, who also went on to win at Ascot before running well in the Ascot Stakes - and arguably should have won after making up heaps of ground up the straight. It was clear Harlestone Times was still progressive after this effort. He returned to Goodwood after that, and made it 2-2 at the track when staying on dourly to get up to beat Nave by 3/4l. Even though that horse has flopped since, there were horses in behind who franked the form. Beachfire was 2 1/4l behind in 3rd. He won the Wolferton handicap at Royal Ascot in fine style and then ran well in the John Smith's Cup at York. Halicarnassus was a further 3 1/4l behind at Goodwood - another horse to win since at Haydock following two encouraging efforts after Goodwood. I fancied Harlestone Times for the Northumberland Plate and he was sent off the 6/1 fav. His breeding gave him big chances of staying the trip, but it appeared he didn't. He travelled well into the straight but soon found nothing under pressure, and faded tamely to be 15th of 19. He travelled like he was still in form, and back down 2f tomorrow, it should be much more suitable at a track where he has a 100% record. The ground was on the soft side at Newcastle which will have made it even more stamina-sapping, so it is worth forgiving I feel. He's better on quicker ground I think, and his sire has better stats on a better surface, so in that regard he'll have conditions to suit. I think he can resume his promise now, over a trip that may prove to be his optimum distance.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.45 Goodwood - 0.5pts e/w Tajneed @ 25/1 (Boyles) I'm aware that the Stewards Cup is a race that probably should be left alone, but I simply cannot have this horse a 25/1 shot with Hoof It a 7/1 favourite at the biggest. I realise Hoof It probably won a bit cosily at York, but there was only 3/4l between them and now there's a swing in the weights. All of Tajneed's British 4 wins have come at Ripon, which is no bad thing on his first try at Goodwood. Both are undulating courses, and the way Tajneed ran at Epsom back in June suggests that this course will prove ideal. His record at Ripon is a highly impressive 11121. He's been really consistent this year and although his mark looks quite high, he cannot be ruled out of this. Franny Norton is on board replacing Michael O'Connell, who with all due respect, is not ideal for a race like this, even though he did ride a good race at York last time. A central draw probably isn't a bad thing and I just think he's overpriced. Can't really go into too much depth masterminding why he'll win, because the odds suggest he won't, but he's criminally overpriced in my eyes. I think he'll enjoy the course, is in good heart, has a solid draw and a good jockey. I know most horses in the race are big prices - representing how tricky and competitive the race is - but I'd have him down more of a 16 or 18/1 shot, so he's worth small each-way stakes at 25's.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.55 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Bayleyf @ 16/1 (Bet365) - BOG I posted this prior to Bayleyf's Epsom run:

6.50 Epsom - 3pts win Bayleyf @ 2/1 (Bet365) First of all, I think Bayleyf and Esentepe's odds should be reversed, as I strongly feel that John Best's horse will get the better of Richard Hannon's this evening. Bayleyf put up a terrific effort on debut, going into many notebooks when battling keenness and greenness (excuse me if those words don't exist!) to chase home the very smart Gatepost at Folkestone over 5f. Shaped as if needing a step up in trip. Gatepost was a huge eyecatcher himself in the Coventry having been switched (taking a longer course) to finish 5th. This is after readily securing a valuable York race. Bayleyf went off a much shorter price at Ascot on his next start, but probably didn't have the race run to suit. He finished 3rd of 7 - beaten 1 3/4l. However, this race worked out well in the end. The winner, North Star Boy, ran 7th in the Coventry (and 4th today). The 2nd, Lethal Force, was 4th in the Coventry, and the 4th, Caledonian Spring, was midfield in the Windsor Castle. Bayleyf himself went to Ascot in the Windsor Castle, and ran a cracker at a big price I thought. I put him up that day, and having been outpaced, he stayed on again to be 7th of 24. Frederick Engels boosted the form today. Esentepe has the habit of finding one too good, and I think it'll be the case again today should John Best's colt handle the Epsom track. It looks a 2 horse race, and I'm happy with a price of 2/1.

As I expected, Bayleyf won the race. He made all the running and was kept up to work inside the final furlong to score by 3/4 of a length. I don't think Luke Morris had to get totally stuck into him, and probably had a little bit left in the tank. It didn't look a bad maiden, with useful yardstick Esentepe in 3rd. He ran 4th in the Chesham so not bad form - even if that race isn't working out too well. The 2nd horse at Epsom of Richard Fahey's probably isn't a bad sort either. I think Bayleyf is another overpriced horse tomorrow, probably partly to do with his trainer John Best, seen as he's not one of the more fashionable trainers. He's still very capable, though, and can have a big run from this one. He had concerns regarding the softer ground at Epsom, and I agree he's better on quick ground, so you can upgrade that performance in my opinion. Conditions will suit and I'm sure he's going to run his race. Nurseries are always tricky, but I like the horse, and feel it would be dangerous to rule him out.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Final one... 4.05 Newmarket - 1.5pts e/w Trojan Nights @ SP Currently around the 6/1 mark on Betfair, and I would be quite happy with an e/w bet at around that price. He would be shorter than that if coming into the race just off the back of his excellent effort at Epsom when short-headed by Charles Camoin in a thrilling finish. He's progressed well in his short career to date. Returned to the track this year with a good 2nd to the smart Dubai Queen, going down a length at Goodwood. Readily got off the mark with a 3 1/4l victory at Ripon over 9f (2nd run well since) before going to Epsom when looking the likely winner before being mowed down right on the line. Last time he ran over today's c&d but the ground conditions were on the soft side of good, which weren't ideal, and I think his 7l defeat can be safely ignored. He'd been very consistent and progressive up to that, and there are grounds to suggest it was the ground that beat him. His sire, Street Cry, shows no progeny winners and only 3 placings from 20 starts on heavy ground, with only a 6% strike rate on soft ground. This improves to 14% on good/firm going. The form of the Epsom race is working out reasonably well, also, without being phenomenally franked. The winner ran respectably behind Brown Panther at Royal Ascot. Boogie Shoes ran a solid race at Goodwood this week. Tanfeeth won his next race before running soundly at Goodwood, and Malthouse has run some crackers since. Even the well-held last three finishers at Epsom have run well since, with 2 of them winning their next start. This doesn't look as strong in my eyes, and as long as it was down to the ground last time, he's got a big chance of bouncing back today. William Haggas' horses are running well at the moment with an excellent 32% strike rate in July so far. Comfortably his best month of the season which can only bode well for the chances of this gelding. Fingers crossed he can add another one into the trainer's winning tally for the month.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread So 5 selections for the afternoon which is rare for me. Can't be ridiculously confident given the prices of some, but I'm pretty happy I'll get good runs for my money.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Happens all the time with my fancied selections in big sprints. All the time.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Ran flat :( Don't know whether he lost some momentum with the incident up the straight but anyway... Negative feelings about the day now, hope it turns around.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Another one to be in the wrong place, and rather frustratingly, was drawn 1 stall nearer the far side than Hoof It!

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread You little beauty! When it was needed...

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Thought the day was going to be a frustrating one. Novellen Lad was on the wrong side of the track and had no chance really. Harlestone Times probably was done no favours by the incident up the straight, stayed on, but never was going the pace to get involved. Trojan Nights was well backed into 7/2 favourite and was involved in a bit of a blanket finish, but was a bit isolated in the centre of the course and ended up a couple of lengths down. Tajneed ran well to be 10th I think but was down the centre, would have been very interesting if he'd been on the far side. Might have placed. Thankfully the little Bayleyf did the business. Backed in to 10/1 he did it nicely by 2 lengths. Delighted with him, and remain if he was trained by one of the 'bigger' trainers, he would have been a lot shorter. Nothing wrong with his form whatsoever. +23.32pts now.

[Lars]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread :ok

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Just seen a horse who I think has the race at his mercy later on tonight. 8.25 Lingfield - 3pts win Fastinthestraight @ 100/30 (Bet365) - BOG To me, this 10f handicap on the polytrack falls apart rather upon inspection. Jim Boyle has failed to fire in July, but I think he can get his first winner of the month here, right at the end! It's obviously a concern, but considering how weak this race is, his horse must have a fine chance. Mr Maximas would be a threat but seems better at Wolverhampton, and has been off the track for three months. There are genuine stamina doubts over Qaraqum, Bell's Ocean, and Kenswick. Laconicos has a pretty woeful strike rate of 1-69 and was well behind my selection in mid-june over c&d. Fastinthestraight has only had 10 runs to date, winning twice, and seems to relish the all-weather surface. He showed only modest form in his first 5 races, but was the subject of a gamble on his 6th start at Kempton, and it was a very well judged one, as he romped to victory by 4 1/2l. Was only put up 4lbs for that and duly obliged again. He was upped to 12f on his next two starts, and probably didn't get home, or didn't enjoy the surface at Southwell and on the turf at Bath. He then returned to more ideal conditions at Lingfield over 10f when a big eyecatcher. He was given plenty to do, before meeting trouble in his run. He then flew home to finish a 3l 4th of 13 behind Sunset Boulevard. A repeat of that will see him tough to beat - as long as he gets luck in the run. This looks a very moderate event, and even from a wide draw, Fastinthestraight can live up to his name and take it up late in the day, going on to score.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread +33.32pts as Fastinthestraight defies a slow start to win easily in the end, picking up well to draw nicely clear. Thought he had an excellent chance, and it makes for a very good day now.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Total bets: 90 Won: 15 Placed: 19 Total staked: 221pts Total returned: 254.3pts P/L: +33.3pts

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.30 Chester - 2pts win Rock Jock @ 9/2 (Bet365) - BOG There appears to be plenty of pace in the race, which may not suit prominent racer Rock Jock, but some of those pace angles have to come from wide draws over the 6f here, whilst Tracey Collins' gelding has a nice position in stall 3. He's only won 1 in 24, but is high-class, being the joint top-rated in the field, so would be giving weight away were this a handicap. His last two runs have been hugely promising, running a very creditable 4th of 28, beating several good horses, in the Paddy Power sprint at the Curragh. High draws dominated so to finish as close as he did from stall 7 was even more encouraging. Tried to make all last time at Fairyhouse but was collared by two, going down by just 1l in 3rd. He battled on well with the first 4 clear - and the race worked out well. Katla was 2nd, who won a valuable listed event on her next start. Chester should suit, and he should be able to get a good position on the inside with the horse in stall 1 not running, and even if he doesn't go straight to the lead, can be handy. Should make a bold bid and hopefully he can get a deserved 2nd career win. The trainer is in good form, and this horse wouldn't be sent over from Ireland if connections didn't think he had a big chance.

[League1_punter]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread :clap on fire at the moment! Well done :ok

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Enjoying things at the moment! Long may it continue! Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

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+42.3pts. Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

[Monterosso]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Well done my man, keep it up.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread As Mark Johnston would say, always trying! Looks a half-decent card by Ripon standards tomorrow so there could be something there tomorrow. Will have a look in a bit but don't want complacency to set in after what's been a really good month.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread So hello August! July turned out to be a successful first full month for me, with a current profit of 42.3pts. A similar August would be absolutely brilliant, but I'm extremely wary of this game, and how you can soon slump into hideous form. As cheesy as it may sound, the discovery of this forum has really made me think more about my punting and I feel that I'm improving every single week of being here. Now, business as usual. My first write-up is going to be in the last race at Ripon as it's the first race that caught my eye earlier. Can't rule out anything else in the afternoon so apologies if it's not in chronological order!