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Bathtime For Rupert

Rupert's Racing Thread

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.30 Catterick - 2pts e/w Dazeen @ 6/1 (Bet365) - BOG Another confident selection! Dazeen has thrived this season so far, getting off the mark in maiden company, before winning a handicap as well as going very close when trying for the hat-trick. It was reported that he was unsuited by the good to soft going at Haydock on his penultimate outing, but he bounced back to form last time when chasing home a progressive horse in Mont Ras. The 6l margin he was back in 2nd doesn't really tell the story, however, with Dazeen travelling sweetly but with absolutely nowhere to go on the inside rail. No gap appeared and reluctantly Tony Culhane switched him right around the field pretty much, losing time and position at a crucial stage. The winner had flown by the time he got out, but picked up strongly to finish 2nd in the end. He'll relish the quick ground today, and got off the mark here at Catterick when a ready successor in May. Even though he drops back in trip to 7f, which may be a concern, he should get the race run to suit with Not My Choice, Glenridding, My Gacho, and Caranbola all liking to make the running. There is also plenty of horses who like to track the pace, so it should suit Dazeen to swoop late, as long as he gets a clear run through. Confident e/w selection.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Massively disappointed. Armiger was taken on up front, was outpaced and short of room before staying on again. Dazeen couldn't go the pace early doors and did stay on well but was never nearer. Most frustrating of all, Eijaaz, as expected ran a decent 2nd. But it's annoying when the winner was a horse out of form and with 1 win in 26. Will sort out P/L after the evening racing where I might have fancies.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 7.20 Kempton - 1pt e/w Tarkeeba @ 7/1 (PaddyPower) Tarkeeba has a wide draw to overcome this evening, but represents the in-form Roger Varian, and her form in maidens so far has been encouraging. She started her career in a hot maiden when behind Imperial Pippin, Stella Point, and Creme Anglaise to name three. She kept on close home, shaping as if an extra 2f would suit. However, she stayed at 10f for her second start when she just couldn't go with the leaders, and faded into a (hampered) 6l 4th of 10. The horse 1 3/4l ahead of her that day, Misty Isles, bolted up in a Brighton race yesterday and other horses have run well since from the Newbury maiden. She steps up in trip which should suit her today - related to middle-distance winners (closely related to Caufield Cup winner All The Good). Her sister won on the all-weather, and Roger Varian has had 3 winners and a close 2nd from his last 5 runners. She must have a sound each way chance.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.40 Chepstow - 0.5pts e/w Babich Bay @ 25/1 (BlueSQ) Possibly mad, but Babich Bay might be interesting on his debut for Jo Hughes, blinkered for the first time. Shaped as if needing handicaps in maidens last year, and these proved strong. His best run came at Windsor when a 7l 3rd to Invincible Ridge and Valerius Maximus. The former is now rated 94 and the latter 82. Babich Bay faced another stiff task at Chester in a race which also worked out - and was drawn wide and didn't handle the track (as many don't). Got a handicap mark of 65 and ran with some credit at Warwick earlier this month when beaten 7 1/2l. Dropped 2lbs since and now with fitness on his side, might just be able to outrun his price.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Final one tonight. 8.20 Kempton - 3pts win Merchant Of Medici @ 3/1 (Hills) William Muir's gelding is 2-3 at Kempton, and was a little unlucky when trying to make it 3 last time out. He won a c&d handicap off 78 in May, winning quite readily from All Action who has gone close since. Seemingly not as good on turf, he ran a solid enough race behind the progressive Boom And Bust at Newbury with the race working out quite well. Ran midfield in a valuable handicap behind Dance And Dance at Epsom before given too much to do over 7f back at Kempton last time. He's off the same mark today which shouldn't hold him back, and back up to a mile will boost his chances. It is a competitive race, but he looks a good bet to me, and can make it 3-4 at the track.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.10 Yarmouth - 1pt e/w Invincible Dream @ 8/1 (Bet365) Last night when I thought this horse would go off at around 6/1, I thought I'd probably leave the race alone. However, at 8/1, this Invincible Spirit colt looks a cracking e/w bet and might well worry the favourite. Invincible Spirit has some excellent 2yos, and Invincible Dream is related to 2yo winners, and it looked likely he'd add to those after a highly promising debut at Salisbury. He was sent off at 12/1 and was fairly green through the race, but didn't have a clear run and every time he seemed to accelerate, he found more trouble. He ended up being pushed home hands and heels. I think if this horse was trained by a more high-profile yard, he'd be a lot shorter today. He had little chance of winning that day seen as he met all sorts of bother, but the penny did seem to be dropping, and he'll come on massively for that. He has different ground conditions today, but I hope that won't hinder his chances. By Invincible Spirit, I don't have many concerns regarding that. The race was run in a decent time, and whilst only Minal has raced since (beaten a short head at Salisbury), he did run respectively in a more valuable race. I think Invincible Dream will come on a bundle for the run, and should make the frame at the very least here. He has a hotpot to overcome from the Michael Bell yard in Apostle, but I certainly wouldn't be lumping on. Yes, he's shown a good level of form in two York maidens, finishing twice both times, but they can start to become frustrating, and other than the winner (pair pulled clear) last time out, I don't think the race was strong. The 3rd horse has been moderate since, and even the winner could only manage 3rd last in the Coventry at Royal Ascot. He's certainly got the form to win it, but I don't think he should be as short as he is. This is his 4th attempt in maiden company, and with a promising newcomer from the John Gosden yard, and my selection who looks sure to improve for a good debut, he can be taken on. It's a 9 runner race, and therefore will get paid 3 places, there doesn't look many horses in the race who are likely to be competitive, so therefore I struggle to see Invincible Dream outside of the frame today. Therefore an e/w bet at 8/1 looks a good bet, and I think he's capable of shaking up the favourite also.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.40 Yarmouth - 1pt e/w Prince Of Burma @ 15/2 (Bet365) - BOG John Gosden is in hot form at the moment with 4 winners from his last 10 runners, and other placed efforts. Prince Of Burma was a huge eyecatcher at Haydock on his return to action in May (following a Kempton maiden romp) when making significant headway having been struggling out the back, but he was never going to be able to maintain his rapid progress, and ended up finishing a highly respectable 2nd to Chosen Character. That horse won again next time out, and ran a good 3rd at Chester recently. He was clearly well handicapped at Haydock. He was therefore sent off a 2/1 favourite for a competitive mile handicap at Kempton, but disappointed. He only could make late progress into midfield having been right out the back and wide rounding the home bend. Shaped as if this extra furlong would suit, and that race did work out quite nicely anyway. Humdrum won it, and ran a solid race at Royal Ascot. Sinfonico (2nd) won next time out. I think he's worth another chance up in trip for a yard in flying form. It's competitive again, but with a better trip around, he should run well.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.00 Haydock - 3pts win Vainglory @ 4/1 (Bet365) - BOG Laura Pike has got a good relationship with this horse now, and is 2lbs well in following only a short head defeat last time out. Vainglory has been competing in races better than this one, in my opinion, and given the way he's been running, this should suit perfectly. He's often found himself too far behind before charging home in good races at Epsom and York recently, so this smaller field should suit nicely. There still looks to be some pace in the race with Balcarce Nov and San Cassiano to name a couple likely to be right up there. The money was down for Leviathan when he got the better of Vainglory at Salisbury so it was a good effort from the David Simcock trained animal. He'll find the drier conditions here no problem whatsoever, and can get his head in front for a deserved win. Laura Pike is excellent value for her 5lb claim, and the Simcock yard are showing signs of coming into form. I think the race is made for him, and he'll be tough to beat today.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Crystal High @ 14/1 (Hills) Panoptic has a good chance given her form to date, but hasn't convinced with her finishing effort, and I think it's worth taking her on at such a short price. Marco Botti's horses have been running with credit lately, despite not firing on all cylinders, but I'm quite keen on the chances of his filly at a big price today. She's a well-bred filly by High Chaparral and showed plenty of promise on debut over a mile at Nottingham at the back-end of last month. She wasn't the quickest away, but soon recovered, and travelled strongly around the inside throughout. When Adam Kirby pushed the button, she ran quite green, and changed her legs often, and ended up fading after looking menacing, finishing 5th of 9. She wasn't beaten all that far, however, and she wasn't touched with the whip. She's sure to come on for that, and the step back to 7f should also suit for the time being. The form has been let down, but this maiden isn't the greatest in the world, and she can make an impact at a nice price for me. 3.35 Doncaster - 2pts e/w Flowing Cape @ 8/1 (BlueSQ) This is a competitive 7f handicap with plenty of chances, but I find it hard to see Flowing Cape out of the picture. Reg Hollinshead's 6yo has been in cracking form this season, with his only bad run coming in a listed race on his seasonal reappearance. Since then he chased home Norville when the pair were well clear at Leicester - only just being outbattled in the closing stages. He's gone on fantastically since, and is now 21lbs higher in the handicap than when beating Flowing Cape! Flowing Cape unfortunately met another horse in great form when unable to get to Collect Act at Bath. Another horse who is 15lbs higher in the handicap now. Flowing Cape managed to get his revenge on that horse, however, last time out when getting the better of him at Catterick. He's clearly in belting form, having only been narrowly beaten by well-treated horses this season. A 3lbs higher mark shouldn't be enough to see him bang there, and I think he'll go very close indeed. 4.10 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Dispol Kylie @ 8/1 (Bet365) - BOG I think Dispol Kylie has conditions to suit for the first time since going close at Newcastle 3 starts ago, when only finding Foreign Rhythm too good. She was keeping on well at the finish. She was outclassed over 6f in a grade 3 race at Goodwood two starts ago and ran well against a useful horse in a claimer last time over 6f again. Efistorm was second and has since won a seller. It was a good run considering Dispol Kylie is a better animal over 5f having won 4 times over that trip, and no other distances. She's back amongst her own sex today, and she has won off a higher mark in the past - even if it was in 2008. She looks a solid e/w pick in a 9 runner race. :hope

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread -4.2pts on the day. Crystal High ran well in 2nd but the winner was just too good. Flowing Cape was absolutely pathetic. Typical. Dispol Kylie given a shocking ride. Stayed on to be 4th but never given a hope and taken to the inside which doesn't look ideal.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5.05 Sandown - 1pt e/w Lidar @ 10/1 (Bet365) - BOG An opening handicap mark of 83 does indeed look quite stiff for this Alan King trained horse, but is going to improve for the step up in trip, and bumped into some nice rivals in maidens on the flat recently. Previously, he was a very good bumper horse, winning a valuable £30k race by 9 lengths before only being beaten narrowly in a bumper on Grand National day in 2009. Found Ghizao too good in one further bumper at Cheltenham, but never really cut the ice as expected over hurdles - registering one success along with some solid runs off a mark of 120. Came back on the level at Goodwood outpaced before keeping on to finish a 7 1/2l 4th to Action Front. It was a similar story at Haydock, but the winner ran 2nd in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot, so there was plenty of substance behind the run. He was keeping on well at the finish to grab 3rd. Tried to make all at Doncaster last time, and only one horse managed to get by. That was High Jinx, who is entered in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. It's likely he just found a good one. The 3rd has gone well since and the 4th won next time out. He had horses in the mid-80s behind him that day. Now he goes handicapping, 2f extra will suit perfectly, and is bound to get some more improvement out of him. He's consistent and even though it looks a hot little handicap, he can get in the money.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.30 Beverley - 1pt e/w Opus Maximus @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) This horse was smart not too long ago, running off marks in the high-eighties, but he seems to have regressed. However, he still appeals in selling company. Even though he's won over further, I think this sort of trip suits him best. He ran well enough at Kempton and Beverley in January and April respectively, before having to contend with a killer wide draw at Chester in a hot claimer on his penultimate start. Had little chance in handicap company last time out, but is favoured at the weights today, and should go well. Hogmaneigh is best in, but has stamina doubts at his first try at 7f. Handsome Falcon has a good chance but his strike rate isn't brilliant, and Glenmuir likewise - as well as having an absence to overcome. Kipchak has work to do at the weights, but usually runs his race. The rest are very moderate. I think Opus Maximus has a solid chance today at a nice e/w price.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.45 Haydock - 4pts win Alis Aquilae @ 11/4 (Hills) My most confident selection to date is Tim Etherington's gelding, even if this is an apprentice race. I think he could be a step above this level, and has been a little unlucky to have only got one win under his belt to date. He's only had 6 runs and therefore has scope to improve. He showed plenty of promise last year when winning a Beverley maiden before only beaten 1 1/4l in a Grade 3 handicap at Newmarket. Was never able to challenge at Kempton next time out over 6f when shuffled back and unable to find a clear passage. It was a similar story on his reappearance this season back at Beverley, but was running on, and with fitness on his side tonight he'll take a lot of beating if getting the splits. There looks to be plenty of pace in the race with several liking to go forward, and it should play into the hands of Alis Aquilae and Brian Toomey. Toomey is very capable, although mainly riding over jumps, and can hopefully give this one a good ride.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Last one for today... 8.25 Bellewstown - 1pt e/w Black N Brew @ 13/2 (PaddyPower) Black N Brew finds it hard to win, but has run well on his last two starts, and has come down into 0-70 company. His first two runs of the season are best ignored, once over 11f after a long absence, and then was brought down on his second start. Ran much better at Navan when 5l behind File And Paint - staying on well - off a mark of 74 in a race that worked out quite well. Put simply, he was outclassed last time out in a better race, but still did well to finish a 6l 4th of 10. He's coming into form and is down to a mark of 70. He's won off higher in the past, and can go very well dropped in grade.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

Last one for today... 8.25 Bellewstown - 1pt e/w Black N Brew @ 13/2 (PaddyPower) Black N Brew finds it hard to win, but has run well on his last two starts, and has come down into 0-70 company. His first two runs of the season are best ignored, once over 11f after a long absence, and then was brought down on his second start. Ran much better at Navan when 5l behind File And Paint - staying on well - off a mark of 74 in a race that worked out quite well. Put simply, he was outclassed last time out in a better race, but still did well to finish a 6l 4th of 10. He's coming into form and is down to a mark of 70. He's won off higher in the past, and can go very well dropped in grade.
Cracking ride I thought there. Nice pick!

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

Yeah it was to be fair. Glad the horse didn't shirk a bit of a barging match, though! Odd course though!
Yeah, I'd heard he was trying for his life so was on too. Very odd course though, like Epsom on crack :lol The money was down and with that yard it's very very telling, so was a decent effort on your part catching him on a going day :ok

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.00 Sandown - 1.5pts e/w Kingsgate Native @ 6/1 (Hills) Kingsgate Native is one of my favourite 'old' flat horses. He may only be 6 years of age, but has racked up 21 runs, the majority in some of the best sprints the country has to offer. With Sir Michael Stoute's form in question prior to the Coral Eclipse tomorrow, he had a ready winner today with Class Is Class, and looks to be coming to the boil. Kingsgate Native has won two Group 1s, a Group 2, and a Group 3 in his time, and I think 6/1 could prove to be a big price come 2.05pm tomorrow. He looked as good as ever when chasing home Sole Power on his season reappearance at Haydock - having made his effort on the opposite side to where he was drawn. It suggested a huge run at Royal Ascot. In the end, he ran respectively without being able to get involved. He ran 6th of 19, beaten 3 3/4l by Prohibit. He was turned out on the Saturday, also, in the Golden Jubilee - won by Society Rock. He was well beaten in the end by 6l back in 10th. I think there are excuses for the run, however. First of all, it was his 2nd run in 4 days, and conditions were far from ideal. All 4 of his wins have come on a sound surface, and even though he'd run okay with some cut in the ground prior, he'd never encountered it as soft as it was, and up to 6f, his stamina just seemingly didn't hold out. Conditions should be much more up his street tomorrow, back to 5f on good ground. It's quite a considerable drop in class, also. He's the highest rated sprinter in the field, with Broox next in. I don't give that horse much of a chance if I'm honest. He was behind Dream Ahead before winning a race which hasn't really worked out great over in France, and even if finding the 2000 Guineas too stretching, there wasn't much promise. Margot Did has deservedly got her head in front twice recently, but this is tougher, and she's back against the boys tomorrow (fillies race last time). Astrophysical Jet is likely to come good at some point, but has plenty to prove after being well beaten on two starts to date so far this year. The step up in class might just stop Night Carnation and Pastoral Player, with Triple Aspect rating the biggest danger in my eyes back at Sandown where he has flourished previously. Kingsgate Native was tried in cheekpieces last time, but these are replaced by the first time visor now, and they might just be able to revitalise him. If near his best, he'll take a lot of beating in this field in my opinion, with only a couple of horses proven at Group level (and not in their best form at the moment). He does have a wide draw to contend with, but he won't want to be bang up with the pace, so can hopefully get tucked in. Margot Did is drawn 1 stall wider than Kingsgate Native which is no bad thing given Michael Bell's filly's newly tried running style. He could do with some pace on, and this looks likely with Margot Did, Broox, and Burning Thread in the line up (2 of which drawn wide). I think everything looks in order for a very bold showing. If he turns up in good form, he'll take all the beating.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.35 Sandown - 2pts e/w Start Right @ 6/1 (Bet365) - BOG I posted this prior to his run at Epsom...

2.10 Epsom - 1pt e/w Start Right @ 7/1 (Bet365) Competitive Investec Mile, but Start Right leaps off the page at me if ready to go for Luca Cumani and Kieren Fallon. Start Right really did well last year after a slow start - finding a seriously troubled passage at Goodwood behind the useful Aattash, between two hard-pulling defeats over 10f. Cumani dropped the horse back to a mile, and managed to get him settled better, and the plan came together to score at Newmarket in July, beating Rakaan, King Of Reason and Hacienda. Followed this up with a ready success at Goodwood - winning by 2 1/4l from Satwa Laird in a 19 runner handicap. He went up 10lbs for that, but still put in a good run from an uncompromising position (and having been restless in the stalls), to be a fast-finishing 4th to Hujaylea at the Curragh. His run in the Cambridgeshire can be forgiven on the grounds that the ground was soft, with the horse ideally wanting a mile on decent ground. He still managed to finish 2nd of 10 in his group, and was eased down, to finish 17th of 35, beaten 9 1/2l. Proved that his improvement/form wasn't curbed when he went over to Dubai, when running with huge credit in a close (3/4l) 4th in a very hot handicap at Meydan. The three horses that beat it are rated (110, 100, 110), with Start Right one of only two runners rated below 100 (and lowest overall). Despite this, he was favourite for the race, and probably only needed a few more strides to get up. He has conditions to suit today, and assuming he goes okay on the track - has twice run well at Goodwood, where course form seems to gel with Epsom. I think he's well up to winning a big handicap off 98, and today could well be the day. Fitness is the main concern, obviously, but if Fallon can get him settled, with a bit of luck, he'll be bang there at the finish. Cumani's horses are going pretty well at the minute, and Fallon is riding well too.
I think just about everyone realised what an excellent run it was at Epsom, having come from another county to finish 3rd of 18 to Dance And Dance. Was never going to get there, however good his turn of foot is. This run made him quite a fancy for the Hunt Cup at Ascot - when sent off at 8/1. He wasn't ideally drawn, and could only manage a well-held 6th of 28 - beaten 7 1/4l by Julienas. However, Dance And Dance ran a very creditable 2nd, so the Epsom form was at least held up. I'm not particularly convinced the straight mile at Ascot plays to Start Right's strengths, however. A lot of the time in these big fields at Ascot, it pays to be handy, and just grind it out much like the winner did. Naturally the run was a little bit flat, but I expect better tomorrow. First of all, Luca Cumani's horses are running excellently at the minute. 6 of his last 19 runners (excluding any he had today) have won, with 7 placing, and just 6 out of the frame. Given his overall record for June was 11-49, he was obviously hitting top form in the latter part of the month, and this bodes well for Start Right tomorrow. I would say the straight mile at Ascot can be quite lung-bursting, given the break-neck tempo throughout the race. I get the feeling Start Right will appreciate going back around a bend, where he can save a little bit for the finishing kick, which is clearly one of his best assets on a going day. This race is probably a touch easier for him, and I think he'll run a very big race.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.25 Haydock - 1pt e/w The Fonz @ 9/1 (Bet365) - BOG I posted this prior to The Fonz's York run.

2.00 York - 1pt e/w The Fonz @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Wide, wide open middle-distance handicap (aren't they all!). Awsaal interests me for the now in-form John Dunlop team. Strikes me as a potential Group horse, but top-weight after a break puts me off somewhat. The Fonz put up an eyecatching reappearance run at Newmarket behind another of John Dunlop's - Times Up. That horse narrowly prevailed from Sharaayeen. I get the impression both of those horses are a little bit better than handicap company, so the run of The Fonz was very respectable - especially given it was his seasonal return. Was beaten just over 6l, but needed the run on his reappearance the previous year, so it isn't too much of a concern. Ran well in similar events last year, including a victory over c&d, beating Dazzling Light into 2nd (Times Up actually in 4th). Has a very solid look to it, and runs off just 4lbs higher today. Backed that up behind Life And Soul at Ascot off 92 when beaten a length, so the mark of 91 doesn't look restrictive - especially as this handicap today doesn't look as strong to me. His two runs at York have resulted in that win, and a short head defeat to the reopposing Deauville Flyer in this race last year. The Fonz was entitled to improve more than Tim Easterby's charge, so off the same terms, I'm quite happy that The Fonz can reverse that result. I think Sir Michael Stoute can have a winner here under the in-form Ryan Moore today back at a track the horse clearly loves. Has a solid draw in 5, and even though these races can often throw up a different winner each time, I'm very happy to back The Fonz e/w at 9's, and am confident of getting a good run for my money. Has the fitness edge over Kansai Spirit, who needed the run last year, and might just be now in the grip of the handicapper.
He was unlucky that day in my book. He was hampered and lost his pitch just a couple of furlongs on, and he was on the back foot from there on in. He did make progress in the straight but made his challenge down the centre of the course when the stands side was favoured. These combined to a 5 1/2l defeat - not a bad effort in the circumstances. A couple of concerns tomorrow would be the track. The Fonz put in a career worst performance in this race last year when well beaten - the improvement to win at York next time out was put down to a more experienced jockey being on board (Louis-Phillipe Beuzelin was riding at Haydock). Also, Eddie Ahern takes the ride, who has never ridden the horse previously. If those two slight doubts don't cause any problems, then I think he has a sound each way chance. All of these type of races are competitive, but I think he's good enough to win off a mark of 91, and I hope it's tomorrow. He was clearly expected to run well at York given the market move for him - sent off 7/2 having been as big as 9/1 earlier - so if he's still going as well as he was prior to that run, he looks sure to go well.

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