Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.45 Beverley - 3pts win Haajes @ 4/1 (Bet365) - BOG Haajes is the class act in the field in my opinion, and can bounce back to winning ways today. Often trying himself in decent handicaps, this horse had been out of form until showing much more promise when a 2l 4th to Red Cape last time out. Because of his slump, his handicap mark has tumbled to 75, a mark in which he is most definitely going to exploit at some point, and I think it may well be today. He won off a mark of 83 in October, so it's very dangerous at the minute. Also, the ground has come right for him. He's a bit of a mud lover, whose career record over 5f on soft ground of 274011251. The draw would be of concern, but with 5 non-runners, he's not going to start too wide, and he tends to come from off the pace anyway. This looks his easiest task for a little while, and everything looks set for a huge run, so long as his latest effort wasn't a flash in the pan.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Just struggling to find any form at the moment. Opus Maximus could never get involved from right out the back, and the soft ground didn't help. Haajes, like others at the moment, finished 2nd. +19.8pts.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.40 Salisbury - 2pts win Amistress @ 9/2 (Boyles) Amistress loves quick ground, and she gets that today at Salisbury despite rain affecting much of the country. She seems to be improving, and her yard continue to do quite well. This filly has a respectable win record of 4-14, and was a very unlucky 2nd at Warwick back in June when unable to find a clear passage until way too late. She snatched a very close 2nd in a photo but would have won with a clear run. She bounced back from this when she chased home the progressive Set To Music over an insufficient 10f trip. The royal runner has now racked up a hat-trick and is rated 92. Amistress was upped to 11f at Lingfield on the quick turf course, and she showed her versatility when making all to score easily by 2 1/2l from Undulant Way (reopposing) in 2nd. Her profile continued to improve with a very sound effort at Goodwood last time out in a better race. She kept on well on the outside to finish a clear 3rd to Kinyras and Aldwick Bay. She remains on a very fair mark in my opinion, and even in a competitive race such as this, will take all the beating.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.15 Salisbury - 5pts win Premio Loco @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) I could well be mad going with a max bet in this competitive Group 3 contest, but I'm extremely keen on the highest rated runner in the field. Premio Loco, rated 117, is a top class animal, and has often been running in Group 2, and even Group 1 company. This is very much more his level, and he's been quite prolific in Group 3 races. 1212187 is his record at listed and group 3 level, but he's a winner at Group 2 level, and there were excuses for his latter two runs in listed and Group 3 races. The 8th came on unsuitable soft ground, and the 7 - his latest run - was too bad to be true at Epsom. He looked beaten a long way from home. Despite enjoying Goodwood, it seemed he wasn't at home on the downs, and I can easily forgive a 4l defeat at the Epsom venue. This horse loves quick ground, which he gets today, and if you go back to his penultimate run, at Newbury in May, it gives him a great chance. He finished 3rd to Canford Cliffs - beaten 4l - with Worthadd in 2nd. Despite being destroyed by Frankel, Canford Cliffs obviously beat Goldikova at Royal Ascot, and Worthadd murdered a Group 2 field in Italy, making him 8 wins from 11, with his only defeats coming on debut, and in Group 1s won by Rio De La Plata and Canford Cliffs. Another huge factor in my selection today is the form of trainer Chris Wall. He wasn't really firing in the early months of the season, including when Premio Loco was running - with a strike rate of around 8%. However, he has come to life of late, and is in cracking form. This really bodes well for my selection here with the yard landing 4 winners, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds from their last 14 runners. An excellent record considering 5 of these 14 runners were at odds of bigger than 16/1. I think he'll prove he's just as good as ever this afternoon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.35 Newmarket - 2pts win Seal Rock @ 6/1 (VC) I posted this prior to Seal Rock's latest run:

3.20 Newmarket - 2pts e/w Seal Rock @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) Henry Candy's yard could be going better, but I'm very confident he's got a nice horse in Seal Rock, and I think he's going to be bang there come the finish today. I don't think this is the best 0-105 sprint handicap ever, and Seal Rock is certainly one of the more unexposed horses in the field, having only had four runs to date - all of which have been good. He readily got off the mark at the first time of asking when winning by 1 1/4l at Doncaster last November from Anoint in 2nd. That horse franked the form by winning next time out, and putting in a solid 2nd to Sinfonico on his most recent start. Seal Rock found a mark of 85 very workable when winning very nicely on his 2nd start, after a break of around 5 months, in a competitive 0-100 Grade 2 handicap, scoring by just under 2l from Coeus in 2nd. That horse won a big handicap at the July meeting last time out and is now rated 95. Seal Rock was regarded as a possible group horse after this run, and even though it may be a little optimistic, he certainly has shown plenty of promise. Despite his 3rd win, at Newmarket, not looking quite so visually impressive, he got on top from El Viento for a 3/4l victory. The pair were nearly 4l clear from a horse who has won since, and El Viento himself has proved he's a decent horse by going well in decent races since - so it wasn't quite as weaker race (relatively speaking) as suggested at the time. Seal Rock's mark went up again to 96 when he contested a big handicap at York, won by Lexi's Hero, who seemingly had the 'golden highway' up the stands side rail. However, Henry Candy's unbeaten gelding proved that he was still improving with a very solid run indeed. Drawn on the opposite side to the winner, Seal Rock had to contend with racing on the far side of the field, possibly not the ideal place to be, but kept on well to be in contention just about throughout, until the latter stages. As the line loomed, he was short of room and ended up being eased off by Fergus Sweeney, exaggerating the 3 1/4l losing margin, which probably would have been more like 1 1/2l or 2l. He wasn't quite going the pace to challenge, but would have been right in the blanket for the placings, a very sound run given his track position. The other horses who did well from low draws are clearly useful, with Acclamazing proving very progressive, despite not running since, and Majestic Miles, who won a listed event at Chester last time. It proved the form of the runners on that part of the track is solid, and gives further hope to Seal Rock's chances today. Seal Rock runs off the same mark today (96), and I fail to see a poor run, so a price of 8/1 looks very tasty to me, even in a field such as this. He looks fairly straightforward and genuine, who stays the 6f well but also has plenty of pace. I don't think this race is as strong, and has a favourite's chance for me. I know he's a market leader, but at 8/1 that doesn't really make a difference in my eyes - he's still a good price. I'm confident he'll run a big race, and therefore is a pretty big e/w bet for me.

That day was a bit of a disaster, and it wasn't helped by his jockey in my opinion. He was constantly switching him to try find room, and it can't have done his momentum any good. He kept on a bit up the wrong part of the track but I can excuse him of that. He's at home on quick ground, and I think 7f will suit him as he often takes a while to put his races to bed. Henry Candy's horses seem to be going a bit better now. He only managed a 9% strike rate in July, and even though he hasn't managed to score (from limited runners) in August, he's gone close on a few occasions. He's a proven horse in this field in my opinion, up against some potentially progressive handicap horses, and can bounce back to form.

[cpo]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

4.15 Salisbury - 5pts win Premio Loco @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) I could well be mad going with a max bet in this competitive Group 3 contest, but I'm extremely keen on the highest rated runner in the field. Premio Loco, rated 117, is a top class animal, and has often been running in Group 2, and even Group 1 company. This is very much more his level, and he's been quite prolific in Group 3 races. 1212187 is his record at listed and group 3 level, but he's a winner at Group 2 level, and there were excuses for his latter two runs in listed and Group 3 races. The 8th came on unsuitable soft ground, and the 7 - his latest run - was too bad to be true at Epsom. He looked beaten a long way from home. Despite enjoying Goodwood, it seemed he wasn't at home on the downs, and I can easily forgive a 4l defeat at the Epsom venue. This horse loves quick ground, which he gets today, and if you go back to his penultimate run, at Newbury in May, it gives him a great chance. He finished 3rd to Canford Cliffs - beaten 4l - with Worthadd in 2nd. Despite being destroyed by Frankel, Canford Cliffs obviously beat Goldikova at Royal Ascot, and Worthadd murdered a Group 2 field in Italy, making him 8 wins from 11, with his only defeats coming on debut, and in Group 1s won by Rio De La Plata and Canford Cliffs. Another huge factor in my selection today is the form of trainer Chris Wall. He wasn't really firing in the early months of the season, including when Premio Loco was running - with a strike rate of around 8%. However, he has come to life of late, and is in cracking form. This really bodes well for my selection here with the yard landing 4 winners, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds from their last 14 runners. An excellent record considering 5 of these 14 runners were at odds of bigger than 16/1. I think he'll prove he's just as good as ever this afternoon.

I have had a nice bet on this one so fingers crossed for us both :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread My runners aren't getting any luck in running at the moment. Horrible.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 8.50 Kempton - 2pts e/w Night Lily @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Really competitive handicap over a mile, but despite this, I am very keen on the chances of Paul D'arcy's classy mare. She's a better animal on the polytrack, but has been running well enough on turf recently, so she's in good heart even though she'll be racing off a mark of 95 back on her beloved polytrack. She had a very progressive profile on the surface, and boasts a highly impressive record of 2111612 over a mile on the polytrack. She was only beaten a head on both occasions she was second, and the 6th came after a break off the track, so you can easily forgive that effort. She's obviously gone up in the handicap for this, but her running style means she never gets massive hikes as she typically runs them down late on. Her most recent effort on the polytrack came in a listed event over c&d back in April. Had this been a handicap, she'd have been getting plenty of weight from several of her rivals - only 2 of her 10 opponents were rated lower than her, so to finish a very close 2nd was highly respectable off level weights. She effectively ran to a higher mark on that occasion, so a new mark of 95 might not be able to stop her back in a handicap. She should be flying at the finish, and with luck from a good draw in stall 3, can win this in my opinion.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 8.10 Newmarket - 2pts win Tuscania @ 11/2 (VC) - BOG Tom Queally travels to Newmarket for just one ride tonight, and I think he has a big chance of getting a winner with the Sir Michael Stoute trained Tuscania. The King's Best filly made an impressive start to her racing career by storming away to score on debut at Kempton over 7f, making a decisive move on the far rail over a furlong out. She was never in danger afterwards, and it was thought that she would go on to much better things after. She took a big step up in class to listed level on her second start, where she ran a respectable race at Newbury - won easily by the smart Zoowraa. Plenty of good horses were in behind, though, and Tuscania stayed on to be beaten 6l in 5th. Sweetie Time, Flood Plain, and Winter's Night were amongst those in the race, all of whom have run well in decent company since. She came back to the track after a 9 month absence to run a hugely creditable race at Newmarket this July behind the useful Instance, and she was beaten 3 1/4l and was only narrowly beaten by 4/1 shot for tonight Chokurei, who had the benefit of a run. Naturally after this, Tuscania was well fancied at Glorious Goodwood when contesting the Tatler Stakes. However, she had a poor draw and supposedly "ran flat". She ran in midfield but if she bounces back from that, she has the form to win tonight. Sir Michael Stoute's runners are going well at the minute, and Tom Queally has a 25% strike rate for the stable.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

My runners aren't getting any luck in running at the moment. Horrible.

Again with Tuscania! Seriously what's with it at the moment. Absolutely no luck, would have won I'm sure.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread +4.8pts. 2.00 Newbury - 1pt e/w Rigolleto @ 8/1 (Bet365) - BOG The Mick Channon trained Rigolleto has conditions to suit today, something he hasn't had that many times in his career to date. In my opinion, 7f on good ground will suit this horse down to the ground, and he's run well both times he's got this. He's still run well on ground unsuitable, and trips too far, but this will see him to best effect. His return to the track this year was highly promising when not beaten far in 3rd over this c&d. The race was won by the talented Sikeeb, with lightly-raced Attracted To You in 2nd. His next three runs were over a mile, which I think stretches his stamina a little bit, often bang there before fading late in the day. He finished last in a competitive handicap won by the very useful Sagramor - winner of the Britannia at Royal Ascot. Rigolleto was a bit disappointing on his next two starts also, at Doncaster and Chester, before softer conditions in the Britannia didn't suit at all over the tough straight mile. However, since this run, he's shaped a lot better slightly eased in grade. He ran well to be 3rd over 7f at York behind the exciting Firebeam and Fityaan - who won next time out. Rigolleto was staying on at the finish, and confirmed this promise when only narrowly beaten by the progressive Emilio Largo on unsuited soft ground. That horse has won three on the bounce now. The rest of the field were no mugs either. This horse is clearly bouncing back to form, and has conditions to suit today. I think he'll be finishing to good effect, and make the frame.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.45 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Docofthebay @ 8/1 (Bet365) - BOG Docofthebay was on the wrong side of the track at Goodwood for the stewards cup last time, but is typically hugely consistent in big handicaps, and has seemingly found an ideal trip in 7f, even at the age of 7, having been running over a mile usually. His 4 starts before Goodwood were hugely consistent, and this represents a drop in class. He was 3rd of 24, 4th of 20, 5th of 25, and 6th of 20. These in good handicaps won by horses such as Pastoral Player, Hoof It, Manassas, and Brae Hill. He tends to always finish off to very good effect, and so long as he's in the right position to challenge today, will be doing so again. He has been dropped 2lbs to 95 which looks plausible, and this race is easier than what he's been contesting. Cheekpieces replace the blinkers which isn't much of a concern, given he was running really well with these applied earlier in the year, and only one of his career wins have come with the blinkers on. I think he's going to run a very good race back at a suitable trip after a run in the Stewards Cup which can safely be excused on trip and track position grounds.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.20 Doncaster - 2pts win Ginger Ted @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG One piece of form stands out in this race for me, and it is Ginger Ted's effort behind subsequent Stewards Cup winner Hoof It at York. Ginger Ted finished to good effect to be 3rd, beaten under 2l by the Nunthorpe entrant. He's been in cracking form this year for Richard Guest, and can be excused for his poorer performances. The horse doesn't want rattling quick ground, so I can let him off his poor run at Hamilton. His run prior to that at Newcastle when he was well fancied, he was given a poor ride before staying on very well when too late. I think he's quick enough to handle the drop back to 5f today with the ground not too quick for him. This looks quite a bit easier than the company he faced last time, and I think he's very capable on a track that will suit, so long as he's produced at the right time. Big favourites chance.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.55 Ripon - 2pts win Don't Call Me @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Don't Call Me has been in cracking form this year, and deserves a big handicap win. He returned to the track this year at Newcastle over 7f, and shaped very well when staying on behind Imperial Djay and Dubai Dynamo - who has had a very good season. He kept on again to be a held 3rd at Ascot over 7f next time out but this was a ladies race so he can be excused of this run, even though he stayed on to good effect. He caught the eye yet again at Goodwood on his penultimate start, upped to a mile, when finishing 4th of 19 to Red Gulch - who ran well at Kempton this week. Don't Call Me didn't have the best of runs at Goodwood, so to finish placed was a good effort. The race had a solid feel about it, so it was no surprise when Don't Call Me ran another excellent race at Haydock since. He rattled home to finish a 1 1/4l 3rd to Markazzi. Again, there were plenty of solid handicappers and yardsticks in the field, so it was another good race. Seemingly he just needs to find his stride in time to get to the front before the line. He's always been staying on, and has conditions to suit again. His form at Goodwood suggest the undulations at Ripon won't be a major concern, even though it is often difficult to come from off the pace at the Yorkshire venue. However, this looks a little bit easier, and he should be bang there, but I think today could be his day.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.30 Ripon - 2pts win Tajneed @ 7/1 (Bet365) - BOG Naturally the Great St Wilfrid is a competitive affair, but Tajneed stands out for me, partly because of his tremendous course record, and probable good draw in stall 3. His record at the track reads 11121 with his only defeat coming a very close 2nd in this race last year. However, it's not just his track form which gives him a huge chance - his recent form is very strong also. He ran an absolute cracker when 2nd to Hoof It at York, beaten under a length, and he should have been closer to that horse in the Stewards Cup last time out. He was actually drawn one stall closer to the far rail than Hoof It, but that horse decided to go over there, whilst Tajneed stayed in the middle of the track isolated with just a small group. He kept on but would have been a lot closer had he raced on the far side, as the middle was supposedly the worst part of the track. That won't be a concern today from stall 3, and I just hope it proves to be the best part of the track. He's in sparkling form, his course record is hugely impressive, and this mark isn't beyond him with conditions to suit.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Brighton - 3pts win Newby Lodge @ 11/2 (Hills) - BOG This horse has been quite frustrating to follow, and hasn't lived up to her quite hefty price tag so far in her short career. She has only had 8 runs, but her career has seen her with three different trainers - now with Alan Bailey after she was sold out of Bryan Smart's and then William Haggas' yards. He ran poorly on her handicap debut at Bath, but was hampered soon after the start, and the race was a bit of a messy affair. However, she did travel quite well before fading, shaping as if she did have a modicum of ability. This was proved correct when contesting a seller at Warwick over 11f. She drew 6l clear with the winner Urban Kode, who narrowly got the better of Newby Lodge off favourable terms. That winner has been enjoying himself at this level, and looks a solid yardstick in selling company. Newby Lodge was put into handicap company after this effort, over 9f at Yarmouth - where she finished in midfield, beaten 12l. the trip was on the sharp side, and she probably needs to be racing in claimers and sellers at the moment. Last time out he was up to 14f and really caught the eye. She travelled up like a dream, looking the likely winner before finding precious little. This might be the way the horse is, but shaped as if dropping back to 12f would prove ideal. Especially considering her best run by far came over 11f. Today she runs over 12f and despite the race being a handicap, it is an extremely weak one. She should be able to pick up a race off a mark of 50 and I expect her to be travelling ominously well, and I just hope she finds something off the bridle today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.00 Brighton - 5pts win Konstantin @ 3/1 (Bet365) - BOG Max bet here on a horse who I think is a little bit better than the rest of the field. The Marcus Tregoning trained gelding has been very consistent since switching to handicap company, and I think he'll go very well here contesting the easiest handicap race he has to date. After winning by 2l at Leicester on his handicap debut off a mark of 70, he's proved consistent without winning. He shaped as if 7f is his optimum trip after sound runs over a mile in which he just didn't seem to get hope particularly well. These were behind decent handicappers Ree's Rascal and Aciano. He was dropped to 7f and ran a really good race to be 3rd in an apprentice race at Ascot. The winner was the in form Lightning Cloud, and a repeat of that performance will see Konstantin win today in my opinion. He could only chase home Saskia's Dream at Lingfield last time out, but again there isn't much wrong with the form. She ran a good 2nd in a higher grade next time out, and solid yardsticks were in 3rd and 4th in the Lingfield race. I think this represents a drop in class today over his ideal trip. Marcus Tregoning's horses have been running better of late and I think he'll have another winner here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Both winners. Let's hope we're on the way back... Update to come later tonight after the football.

[Lars]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread :clap

[Boulder5111]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread well done Fella ! :clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread +28.9pts going into the Ebor meeting. Hopefully it'll be a good one! Only glanced at the cards tonight as I'm quite tired so will post up any selections tomorrow.

[Monterosso]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Great stuff yesterday mate, keep up the good work. :hope

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.00 York - 1pt e/w Rain Delayed @ 20/1 (Bet365) - BOG This horse trained by Michael Dods is potentially well treated despite carrying top-weight here, and this represents a drop in class. This horse was trained in Ireland by G Lyons until last November, until Michael Dods purchased him for £70k. He's a very smart sprinter and has recently been competing in listed and group races, and often has been finishing well, but has been outclassed rather. He's shaped the last twice as if he's just coming back into a bit of form, when beaten 3 1/2l by Masamah at York two starts ago, and then only finding his feet late at Goodwood last time. It is his first handicap start since going very close off 99 when Noble Storm just held him off at Newbury with the pair clear and that horse has made strides into group company since. I think the ground will be no issue, and back in a handicap off a mark he can exploit, he has chances.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.30 York - 1pt e/w Moon Pearl @ 20/1 (Bet365) - BOG I think this is a massive price for a horse who won quite a hot debut. I know he didn't win impressively but he stayed on stoutly to get up, and this 7f trip will be right up his street. The form of his win worked out well, with the 2nd winning, the 3rd winning a good race and is well regarded by John Dunlop (the 2nd to Dunlop's won at Brighton this week from another promising horse). Sequoia ran well enough at Goodwood and Poole Harbour flopped at Ascot after a great effort behind the smart Wise Venture. I think the form is strong, and 7f will be bang up his street. I know Ralph Beckett isn't the most stylish of trainers which probably reflects in the price, as if this was trained by one of the "big boys" he wouldn't be a 20/1 shot. He was an expensive purchase and is entered in further Group races, and I think he'll outrun his price here for a yard going well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 8.00 Folkestone - 3pts win Magical Speedfit @ 4/1 (Bet365) - BOG This horse has been a bit of a favourite of mine down at Brighton, but he goes perfectly well here and conditions look in his favour tonight. There are no doubts that he's capable of winning off this mark with 5lbs taken off by the very capable Ryan Powell. He loves to find his feet downhill to finish fast and I can excuse his latest run when he pressed the leaders. George Margarson is coming into some form after a little bit of a poor run with 2 winners from his last 3 runners. Magical Speedfit can benefit from a likely good pace with two real speedballs in this small field in the shape of Clear Ice and Miss Polly Plum. My selection will run on well late in the day and can claim the pacesetters late on.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Argh. Drifted. Outpaced. Thundered. Just failed.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.30 York - 2.5pts e/w Fire Lily @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Posted this before her Curragh run:

2.40 Curragh - 5pts win Fire Lily @ 2/1 (Boylesports) A horse I really like, and posted this prior to her Ascot run. She did get a very good pace which actually took her off her feet somewhat. However, she absolutely stormed home in the end to be 4th from a very uncompromising position, and this step up to 6f will be right down her street. Zip Top looks a nice prospect, but Wachman holds this filly in high regard, and has the experience over these. Form is rock solid, and I expect her to put in a very good showing this afternoon.

She did it well in the end, relishing the give in the ground and the step up to 6f to forge clear and was going further away at the finish to score by 2 1/2l. That form hasn't exactly been franked since, but there was only one horse in it come the line and that was David Wachman's filly. Conditions look like they'll be right up her street tomorrow and I think she's a cracking each-way price at 7/1. She was well punted at Ascot and I expect money to come for her on this occasion too as connections seemingly are very keen on this filly. Gamilati is a mammoth threat for me, but I think Fire Lily might have the measure of Best Terms and Shumoos over 6f as she was absolutely thundering home after being outpaced at Ascot. The ground will be in her favour also. David Wachman's horses are running perfectly well enough, and this talented filly can continue her progress with victory in a competitive Lowther Stakes here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.00 York - 5pts win Crown Dependency @ 5/2 (Bet365) - BOG Another max bet for me, on a horse who really should be up to winning this race, for all it is full of horses who may still improve to higher official ratings. Put simply, if this was a nursery, Richard Hannon's charge would be giving masses of weight all round (even if a few runners haven't got a handicap mark yet). He's obtained a mark of 102 with the next best in off 95. That's a horse who hasn't really gone on since the early part of the season and looks better at 5f. Based on this, I think the only danger to Crown Dependency is an unexposed horse with two or less runs to their name so far. Hestian looks the main threat of those having beaten a 95 rated horse by 2l on debut. I do think that mark is flattering somewhat, however. Still, the Tommy Stack trained horse clearly has a big chance. The experience of Crown Dependency might just tell. Bogart and West Leake Diman also rate as threats. Crown Dependency has deservedly got a mark over 100 after three very sound races in decent company. He made his debut at Goodwood over 6f when fighting greenness to power clear and score decisively by 2 1/4l. Ewell Place was in 2nd (and reopposes) and he himself won next time out as well as the 3rd horse. He clearly stays the 6f well, and it proved that it would be an ideal trip at this stage of his career after seemingly finding 5f a little bit too sharp in his two efforts since. He was outpaced before staying on well at Royal Ascot in the Norfolk behind Bapak Chinta, who was a strong fancy for the Nunthorpe before being withdrawn. The 2nd and 4th horses have come out and ran well since so the Ascot form looks solid enough. However, Crown Dependency ran yet again over 5f at Goodwood and was hampered shortly after the start, and ran the same race having been outpaced early. He stormed home to finish a 1 3/4l 4th to Requinto. He gets 6f today which is going to be a massive help given his recent runs and any cut in the ground shouldn't be a concern after his good effort at the Royal meeting, and the fact he's by Acclamation. I think he'll take all the beating back at this trip, and if I were to stick my neck out, I think the only danger is the Irish raider.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.05 York - 2pts e/w Pintura @ 8/1 (Hills) - BOG I posted this prior to Pintura's Goodwood run:

3.10 Goodwood - 0.5pts e/w Pintura @ 22/1 (Bet365) - BOG This does look a top-notch Totesport Mile, but in this type of race I do like to look for value, especially at a track such as Goodwood where favourites can easily be denied a clear passage. On the formbook, it does appear as if Pintura's form is on the decline, but I think he still has a big run in him off this mark. He started the season in red hot form, unfortunate not to get a big handicap win to his name when going close at Newbury and Chester. He was beaten 1/4l and a head respectively, and then ran a cracker off his current mark at York to go down 1 1/4l to the smart St Moritz. Mont Agel and Dance And Dance were 2nd and 3rd with Pintura a close 4th. He was sent off with a live chance for the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, with a starting price of 20/1, but never was given a chance to get involved to be honest. Spencer had him virtually last on the stands side, and he could only stay on into 12th of 28 - not a terrible run in the circumstances and it's probably more difficult to make ground up on a lung-bursting straight course. He was never involved at York last time behind Green Destiny, but that was over 10f which isn't ideal. He was beaten 10l. He has won over 9f in the past, but stamina is stretched in competitive handicaps, especially on a galloping track such as York. I can forgive him the run. He's back to a mile today, and it is a bit of a leap of faith. I'm hoping he's not quite done with yet, and can put in a good effort from a good draw in stall 3. Going round a bend should suit him and he has won at both Epsom and Goodwood in the past so the course holds no fears. David Simcock is coming into good form after a slow start to the season which also offers hope. July is by far his best month so far, with his best results coming more recently in the month. Only small stakes because there is a chance he can bomb again, and it is a hugely competitive race. He's a big price, though, and is capable of running well.

He showed he was still in form with an absolute cracker of a run. I'd hoped Spencer would have him more prominent from a good draw, and he stayed on really well from a forward position to be in with a shout inside the final furlong. He just came out worst in a 3 way tussle behind the highly progressive Boom And Bust, and Proponent. It looked a very good field for the particular race, with good horses Sooraah and Dance And Dance (who ran a great race in a Group race recently) just in behind. He has gone up a further 2lbs for that so he's still high in the handicap but definitely showed he has big performances in him off this sort of mark, and should enjoy going round a bend again at York from a good draw from which Spencer can get another good position, like he did at Goodwood. He's good with some cut in the ground so there are no concerns there, and he's run well at York on all three visits to the Knavesmire. He kept on to be 5th of 17 in a 6f handicap in his early days, before finishing 2nd of 20 behind Gunner Lindley in a big handicap in October, as well as an unlucky 4th of 18 behind St Moritz back in May. He's tactically versatile and the final piece of the jigsaw is the form of trainer David Simcock who is operating at a 23% strike rate so far in August after 11% and 13% in the last two months respectively. This race is easier than the one he contested at Goodwood in my opinion, and I simply can't see a bad run from him. He really deserves to win one of these big mile handicaps, and I hope it's today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.40 York - 1.5pts e/w Laughing Lashes @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Big price for this Jessie Harrington trained individual, for a yard who are in good form. I find it hard to really criticise any of her form on the race track so far in her career, and with a more fashionable trainer, would be shorter for this race in my opinion. Her first race saw her only deprived by the experience of Wild Wind - now a 103 rated horse for Aidan O'Brien and it was a similar story when Laughing Lashes was beaten a length by the very smart Together on her second start. She did manage to get her head in front on her third start, though, starting off a series of battles with yet another O'Brien star in Misty For Me, with Together back in 3rd. Misty For Me gained revenge next time in the Morglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh before Laughing Lashes was off the track for several months before returning at Newmarket this year for the 1000 Guineas. Her run there was flat to say the least, but it was always going to be a very tough ask after 9 months or so off the track. She trailed home in 17th of 18, but proved she still retained all of her ability in the Irish equivalent. She stayed on into 3rd behind her nemesis Misty For Me, shaping as if she wanted further. Together ran well at Ascot since behind Goldikova's recent conqueror Immortal Verse and Misty For Me destroyed a below-par Midday. The suspicions that Laughing Lashes was ready for a stamina test were proved accurate in the blanket finish that was the Irish Oaks. She looked a huge threat when making a line of 3 with Banimpire and Wonder Of Wonders before Blue Bunting came over the top late on. Harrington's filly went down by 3/4l and didn't have the assistance of Fran Berry's whip - as he dropped this over a furlong out. It's quite possible that with a few cracks, she would have won the race, and therefore be a shorter price for this race today. Blue Bunting needed every yard of the trip that day, and her future may lie over further, and may not be able to get into top gear until too late on the York track. I think my selection is the one to be on from the race in Ireland and it's difficult to knock her form when considering she's been beaten a few times by a top class horse in Misty For Me. She clearly stays the 12f trip well but still has some speed to help her around here, and is no 10/1 shot in my book. That leaves it down to two main rivals for me. Vita Nova was undoubtedly unlucky at Haydock but I don't think she's good enough to take this despite improving. Crystal Capella rates as the main danger with conditions to suit, but she's not infallible, and her demolition at Newmarket may have been exaggerated by the opposition, which wasn't as strong as it probably could have been. I think Laughing Lashes has a big chance of winning the race - not just placing - and at 10/1 can provide a very sweet return.