BBOTD Wednesday 27th April

[Lars]

Ascot 16:50 Nelson’s Bounty landed a big gamble on his second start, and then went in again when weak in the market on his next start. He was then very unlucky in-running after been punted in again and I still think that this big horse has scope for improvement and the 12/1 on offer is too big. The 4yo has only had seven starts, and improved rapidly from an opening mark of 69 to his current mark of 81. He showed some quirks when in maiden company, and then on handicap debut but has seemingly left all that behind, as on his second start in handicap company he won pretty easily when racing over a mile at Lingfield, getting the job done well. He was stepped up in trip and won again at Yarmouth, in a race where the form couldn’t have worked out better, with all bar one of the runners having improved in the ratings. He had to work hard, but found a lot for pressure and pulled away from all bar one of his rivals, but still won cosily by 1.25 lengths. He was last seen at Sandown, in a race of similar quality to this (smaller field). He was travelling well and then made his challenge, and was making progress before being hampered pretty severely, and then was eased. He was well backed that day, with some serious on-course bets, so obviously a lot was expected of that run. He stays on the same mark of 81, and I think this big field could help. He looks to stay a little further than 1m, so the decent pace that is likely to come from this race will benefit this increased stamina. Nelson’s Bounty hasn’t been seen for 229 days and it may be a concern that he may come on for the run. He looked a scopey sort at 3 however and is sure to have matured and filled out even further into his 4yo season. If so, I feel he could improve by another 10lbs this year. Although his sole turf win came on softer ground, he should handle this faster surface, as his dam won plenty of times on firmer ground. Paul D’Arcy is in good form, and if he’s got Nelson’s Bounty fit, he has massive claims in this race. Tony Culhane gets on well with this mount, and his booking is a positive, him being the first choice jockey for the trainer. The current price of 12/1 is huge, although it will be the market that defines his chances. You’ll be getting worried with this yard if it drifts out to 20’s before the off, but I’ll take my chances. Nelson’s Bounty; EW @ 12/1 Ladbrokes (4 places BOG)

[Cal]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April AYR 4:30 BOGSIDE. Bogside ran 10 days ago and was absolutely outclassed by an immense ride and a lovely horse in Russian War and Paul Carberry. However, he drops down in grade here and has more of a chance. He also drops back in trip and is suited to a 2 miler which he is running at here. He probably wants softer ground but I will take a chance on him here at good ground although he seems to pull hard on good ground early on but ignoring that aside, it isn't a race that stands out with a clear fave for me and with Bogside running on a mark of 118 which he ran and won at Kelso back at the start of the month. Question marks about all of these runners as Toshi's form figures don't inspire and his last win was back in August 2009, although runs off a better mark here after a better performance LTO. Plan A looks too high in the weights for me and Jewelled Dagger having not ran since September. Tout Regulier could be worth a chance after performing on G-F and probably needed the run LTO but Bogside has a very decent opportunity here and even with question marks over the ground, I will take a chance.

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 14.00 Ascot Magic City - 1 pt win @ SP Magic City had a amazing debut winning at Newbury last month he won the race fairly easily and looks the best performer again in this field and should take all the beating today if the form from the last win shows again

[Golden_J]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April Satwa Laird 4.50 Ascot - 1pt e.w ----------------- This Jockey + Trainer combination of Frankie Dettori and Ed Dunlop , We don't see alot , but when they do team up there normally get a few winners, This is Frankie's only ride of the day at ascot, and i cannot see him going there to ride a donkey , Because im sure he would love the day off just like the rest of us, So this looks like this is a Special Team up tomorrow, Now on to the Horse himself. His form hasn't been the best of late , But won a 1 mile race last year up in Chepstow and guess who rode him that day , FRANKIE DETTORI :nana :nana , Tomorrow's Ground at Ascot is currently and expected to be Good to Firm and Satwa Laird won up in Chepstow on Good Ground, and to add something This is Ed Dunlop's only Runner tomorrow and his yard is bang in form of late.. Best of luck with what you back Golden :cheers

[Dtrains]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 3.05 ETON FOREVER looked every inch a group winner waiting to happen when running away with the spring mile at donny earlier this year and he is duly stepped up to listed class today very progressive and much the horse i'd rather have on side than zacinto who looked to have the world at his feet but has been very dissapointing could pick these up and carry them on some of his form but who knows which zacinto will turn up, i certainly dont and thats not the type of horse i want to be backing. ETON FOREVER WIN 7/2 BET 365 (bog)

[He who dares .. wins]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April Eton forever 15:05 Ascot 4/1 paddy power won lto callan booked on again who has won twice on this horse dont think the favourite will win here think 4/1 is a decent enough price here :hope

[Quackers]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 4.50 Ascot BUTLER e/w 14/1 Bet 365 This horse has been off the track for over a year now and has joined the Cumani stable who have yet to fire. They have had a couple of winners but a lot of their horses have been disappointing. This horse has 5 runs in Ireland which were mostly very poor. The one stand out performance came in a maiden with similar conditions to today on quick ground over a mile. The horse finished 4th in a race won by the classy JAN VERMEER with MIDAS TOUCH finishing 3rd, 3 lengths ahead of my selection. On the face of it, BUTLER appears to have been given a tough opening handicap mark but could prove in time to be a much higher rated animal. The market should reveal all tomorrow, so hopefully the money will come for him.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 4.15 Ascot Libranno 11/4 Bet365 See this one as a 2 horse race and with race fitness on his side, Libranno might just have the edge on Margot Did. Libranno ran a decent enough race behind Native Khan last time out but that trip probably stretched him. A return to this trip is a positive as he has already won two group 2's over this distance. Hannon stable in good form and I expect another ice cool ride from Hughes. Madany is capable of sneaking a place but may not have the class to trouble the top 2 in the betting.

[He who dares .. wins]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April Magic city 2:00 ascot sp paddy power won easily lto in a decent field looks like it still has alot to give hughes booked on again hopefully gets the win here :hope

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 5:05 Brooklyn Brownie @ Perth - Course and distance winner that has a good record here at Perth.Was well beaten LTO by Rambling Minster in a higher class race but is now off its lowest mark since 2008 as well as the jockey claiming 3lb.Never too far away here and should fgo close 1 pt WIN bet @ 13/2 William Hill

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 4:50 Ascot - Ahlawy - e/w @ 33/1 (WillHill) Tentative is definitely the best way to describe this bet and it'll probably be the end of my place streak, but 33/1 looks to be a monster price in my opinion, so I'll go for it! Ahlawy is trained by Frank Sheridan, who wouldn't have many very good animals and this heavily campaigned 8 year old is definitely one of his better runners. The majority of his better runs in the last few years have come on the all-weather, but he won on the turf twice last year, albeit from 9 & 10lb lower marks. However, being a horse who needs a bit of cover to be at his best, this 20 runner field could bring out the best in him and the current fast ground is exactly what he needs on turf. He stays further this this 1 mile quite easily, but has won over 7f and most recently over an extended mile at Wolverhampton. I'm of the opinion that the relatively stamina testing mile on the Ascot track, which is galloping in nature, is also ideal, plus he'll get a solid pace to run at, which is also needed. Everything points to this race being run to suit perfectly, but the main question is whether this horse is good enough, and I think he could just be, despite getting on in years. The Frank Sheridan yard had a terrible time of it for about 2 years, with a virus continuing to affect his horses and force them to move badly. He moved his base to Averham Park at the back end of '09, had an average season in 2010, but has since seen his relatively modest string of animals begin to run very, very well. Since the beginning of 2011, Sheridan has had 52 runners, with 12 winners, giving him a highly impressive 23% strike rate and a +£51 LSP so far. A further 23 of his runners have finished either second, third or fourth, and he clearly has overcome his problems after an original bright start back in '08, having moved over from Italy, where he trained horses for many a year. The man can certainly train horses, and it looks as if he's managing to get that little bit of luck required to get winners too. Hopefully he'll be adding another one here. Ahlawy won his penultimate start, at a tasty price of 11/1, having been well punted in from an opening show of 18's. The race wasn't run to suit, as they went quite slow early on, before quickening from the front a couple of furlongs from home, as is typical on the all-weather. However, James Doyle, who was on board that day, had Sheridan's charge nicely positioned on the inside through, just stalking the leader, a move that paid dividends as Ahlawy came up the unfavoured inside position to lead inside the final strides. That was a cracking run and one of his best performances for a long time, with the tongue-tie/blinker combination seemingly working wonders for him. He won in that combination of headgear 4 times before, all back in '09, and it seems to help him pull out a lot more in the finishing stages of races. This is the first time he'll be wearing it in a turf handicap (wore it in 3 claimers, form ; 6-2-2), so hopefully it'll prove as effective once more. His run off a 2lb higher mark last time out was disappointing, but I believe there's valid excuses. It was a 5 runner race, which wasn't ideal for a start, but to make it worse, it was over an extended 1m 4f trip, which is much too far for this fellow. A truly run mile in a big field is what I'm expecting to be his optimum, but a good break will be required, which is always the risk with this horse. He's often very slowly away, which if occurring here, will effectively blow his chance before the race has got interesting. However, a quick break, and a handy sit in behind the leaders, will see him in a much better light, especially as he's bound to get plenty of cover. My good mate, Jamie Spencer, is on board Ahlawy for the first time ever. Spencer is riding very well of late and I'm starting to warm to him again, despite having my heart shattered into pieces by him on a fair few occasions. He's still pure class on his day though and he's most certainly an interesting jockey booking, on what is his only ride here before setting off for only one more at another meeting. Jamie has only ridden for Sheridan on one occasion, resulting in a 2nd place, so hopefully he can go one better here on this occasionally talented animal. He'll have his work cut out, as the horse seems to be the type to take notions, but he does respond well to pressure when everything's lined up to suit, and I think it is here, although I could be very wrong. He's drawn in stall 20, which is a grand place to be given that I expect most of the pace to come from the higher drawn runners. It's a wide-open class 4 contest, with too many dangers to list, but Ahlawy is a 5 time winner in this grade, and although he has never defied a mark this high, his yards recent return to form leaves cause for hope. They make a near 300 mile round trip to visit a track they've come to once and I believe it's one that'll play into the horses hooves perfectly. There's a few ways this race could pan out, and a couple involve my selection coming near the rear of the field, but I think that 33/1 is certainly worth taking a chance on. He has belied big odds before and could do so again, with plenty in his favour. I wouldn't be surprised to see him halve in price, as I think that'd be a true reflection of his chances, but I'm playing small, tentative, each-way stakes, in the hope that he'll show his best form and win this open contest. Plenty of the opposition will need the run, come here out of form, or will have different targets for the season. This is a big race for this horse and probably his best chance of landing a prize over £5k, although it's not much over it mind! Hopefully he'll run well, but it's one to go into very cautiously. That's my only bet of the day, which is a pity, as there's some good racing, but I just can't solve the other ones. Quite fancied Zacinto in one of the earlier races but he's no price and very dodgy nowadays. If he turns up in good knick, he'll hammer them, but God only knows what he'll do. Definitely one of the biggest let downs around.

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 4.50 Ascot Tartan Trip ew 16/1 Bet 365 Won a handicap at Sandown over a mile last July and has had some decent placed efforts since then. The win at Sandown came on genuine fast ground and he looks as though he will get that once again today and with stable flying a return to optimum conditions looks a decent bet here.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April Do I need a winner or what......:loon 5.05 Perth Brooklyn Brownie loves this course and his last win was here over this distance in a better race. Still on a very low mark though and must have a chance with the ground in his favour. Also just noticed that Wafer tipped it so even more confident now :) 1 Pt win 11/2 Bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April The 245 at Perth looks interesting with only three in with a chance, the Irish horse is fav but his best runs have been on soft ground and willing to take him on with Sivola De Sivola, his second to Spirit Son was very useful and last time got to within 23 lengths of Bobs Worth and Raock On Ruby despite a couple of bad mistakes, that reads well and is taken to get his head in front here. Rain Stops Play is the each way bet to nothing but would need something to go wrong with the front two to collect I rackon. 245 Perth: Sivola De Sivola 1pt (7/4 Bet365)

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April

Eton forever 15:05 Ascot 4/1 paddy power won lto callan booked on again who has won twice on this horse dont think the favourite will win here think 4/1 is a decent enough price here :hope

Magic city 2:00 ascot sp paddy power won easily lto in a decent field looks like it still has alot to give hughes booked on again hopefully gets the win here :hope

Ok, for a kick off read the rules mate, you can only have one selection in this thread and we need a little more reasoning as to why to think these are your best bet of the day, Maybe stick to the daily threads? many thanks. :ok

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April

Magic city 2:00 ascot sp paddy power won easily lto in a decent field looks like it still has alot to give hughes booked on again hopefully gets the win here :hope

Only one selection allowed....:unsure

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April You beat me to it BH ;)

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April Ponte 4.40 - Pretty Diamond - win at 4/5 BOG bet365 I don't often back an odds on shot (and 'when' this one gets beat it'll cure me for another few months..........:rollin) Only five runners for this 12 furlong handicap for 3yo fillies. This is a stiff test for these youngsters and my selection has the most stamina and has already won over the trip (only one to have done so) She's also won on a stiff track at Beverley so the uphill finish should suit her That beverley win was 2 runs ago. Last time she was beaten a quarter length of todays mark but 8 lengths clear of the third. That was at Windsor on a flat track, so hopefully today will suit her better The Godolphin horse looks like a bit of a monkey and a couple of the others are doubtful stayers

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 5.35 Perth: Ocarina 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 BOG One of my favourite stables and there only runner on the card today in the lucky last at Perth. Better known as a chaser, Ocarina has decent form over a variety of trips over fences but has yet to break duck over hurdles. Having said that the horse does look particularly well weighted back over the smaller obstacles here today some 8lbs lower than current chase mark and 2lbs lower than highest winning mark. Wouldn't want ground to dry out too much but has to have a decent shout here at a price with stable finding their form at Kelso on Saturday.

[He who dares .. wins]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April

Ok, for a kick off read the rules mate, you can only have one selection in this thread and we need a little more reasoning as to why to think these are your best bet of the day, Maybe stick to the daily threads? many thanks. :ok

Sorry didn't know that , reasoning is reasoning no matter how long or short ;)

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April Only runner today for Trainer Andrew Parker and its in the last race at Perth, its an Amateur Riders' Handicap Hurdle but Andrew is a fine judge of a race being a fine horseman himself. The pick was a nice winner last time out be that back in November 2010, its very possiable there has been a problem or they just have not found the right race for the 9yr old chestnut gelding, i'll still take a chance on him as he's sure to get the trip and the ground should be another plus for him. Am not sure on Mr Parker's choice of Jockey booking but i will take his choice on trust. Perth 5:35 - Buckstruther 0.5 e/w bet @ SP Good luck in your day.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 4.05 ponte Hawaafez - holds an oaks entry and should be better than this grade in time. Form of last run at bev boosted by a winner who has won since. No probs with a stiff 1m2f here and although up in weights likely go well. 6/5 boyle, 1 pt

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April

Sorry didn't know that ' date=' reasoning is reasoning no matter how long or short ;)[/quote'] Welcome to the site fella. Might be best just having a wee read over some other posts and getting an idea what people are looking for in reasoning. Example - will it like the ground ? is the trainer in form ? is the jockey in form ? it could be his only ride of the day, does the horse miss out on a penalty the list goes on, its a great site fella with some VERY clever people, the members are just looking for a little more than.....The postman told me his cat's paw landed on Number - 8 this morning and that just happens to be a Paul Nicholls runner with Ruby riding. It would not do any harm in reading the rules and am sure youl get the hang of things. Best of luck and great to see a fellow Scot around. :ok

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 0.5pts eway delightfully 535 perth 20/1 willy hill BOG connections have strong local knowledge and good track record. off the mark at hexham last time out. strong traveller if a little quirky but on his day and in this sort of company

[He who dares .. wins]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April

Welcome to the site fella. Might be best just having a wee read over some other posts and getting an idea what people are looking for in reasoning. Example - will it like the ground ? is the trainer in form ? is the jockey in form ? it could be his only ride of the day, does the horse miss out on a penalty the list goes on, its a great site fella with some VERY clever people, the members are just looking for a little more than.....The postman told me his cat's paw landed on Number - 8 this morning and that just happens to be a Paul Nicholls runner with Ruby riding. It would not do any harm in reading the rules and am sure youl get the hang of things. Best of luck and great to see a fellow Scot around. :ok

Thanks for the tips mate , i see what you are saying , i shall put more reasoning into my selections as of tonight for tommorow :clap

[Zenyatta]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April PONTEFRACT 3-30...COUNT BERTOLINI...1 PT WIN @ SP I saw this horse win at Pontefract over c/d last week, he had a bad draw that day AND bounced out of the stalls and led all the way running on strongly to win by 3 and 1/2 lengths, same conditions today, fast ground and a better draw, if hes in the same mood today will WIN no doubts. Only downside is Danny Tudhopes on him today not SDS.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 3.05 Ascot - 1pt win King Of Dixie @ 8/1 (Boylesports) Can't help but be tempted by this horse at such a price, even in a competitive renewal of the race. King Of Dixie has an impeccable record fresh - recording a 100% record coming back from an absence (3-3). This includes success in this race last year. King Of Dixie has an admirably consistent profile, with only 5 unplaced efforts in 14 starts. 3 of these came at Goodwood - which is a track where course form is often important - so these can be forgiven by me. His form at all tracks except Goodwood reads: 21131215117. There was a big disappointment on his most recent start at Ascot when beaten all of 27 lengths by Premio Loco. Was eased after hanging right on that start, though, so at least there are some excuses for that flop. Even though this year's race looks stronger, and last year's only contained 4 runners, the horse King Of Dixie beat now looks a very useful type. King Of Dixie got the better of Cityscape that day (pair pulling miles clear). Cityscape won both subsequent starts last season (including a 7l thrashing of Penitent), and this season chased home Dick Turpin on its reappearance. If you can forgive King Of Dixie's latest two runs (excuses twice), this horse would be a much shorter price today, and is set to run a massive race.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 17:15 Pont Grazeon Again - Ran green , found trouble and no extra final 100 yards is the form for this as a 2 year old. But looking at finishing at placings of horses finished ahead of her I think 60 is a fair mark now she is 3. Her best race looks to be at CD last year finished 5L behind 92 rated easy ticket. I feel the handicapper is kind to her and hope yard have ironed out a few of her problems over the winter and at 33/1 V/C think a small EW is worthwhile.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April 2:00 Ascot - Magic City - Back His racecourse debut win at Newbury was quite simply THE standout performance by a 2yr old so far this season. It was truly breathtaking. Having seemingly gone off at a rattling quick pace, he was able to quicken off the lead and leave the rest of the field for dead. It was even more impressive given that pre-race they looked a good bunch who were likely to achieve plenty between them this year. He's up against 2 other debut winners here and whilst I respect both, they look to have a mountain to climb to beat the long odds on jolly here 1pt win @ 1/4 William Hill BOG

[zoolander]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April Kempton 7:20 Gladys Gal 14-1 BET365(BOG) 1 POINT WIN Varian and Callan team up here and this combo has already won and done well with its new comers this year. The pedigree in this horse looks good, related to several sprinters who won first time out. A few obvious dangers in a bit of an unknown race but the price/jockey/trainer attracted me to this selection. Callan rides Kempton better than anyone else so if this hors eis ready, he will give it the best chance to win.