BKI's Jump Betting Log

[bowles10]

Re: BKI's Betting Log looking good for cheltenham mate, some decent prices there, thats the 1st bit done

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Cheers Bowles. Shame Grandouet's ruled out, but you can't have them all. I've been pretty lucky so far with regards to their targets. Market looks positive for Balder Succes to take his chance in the Triumph which I'm really looking forward to but we'll see! Michel now a best priced 11/2, could well go near favouritism.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Festival Handicap Chase The Package 2pt EW - 16/1 (VC) The Package hasn't been seen this year but being in the hands of Pipe that's hardly a negative. Was second in the race behind Chief Dan George in 2010 when given a lot to do, going down by a diminishing head. That was off a 2lb higher mark than he's now rated and his subsequent races over marathon distances don't reflect his ability. He's only a 9yo and off a mark of 139 he should be able to go very close. Aren't many well handicapped horses in the race. 16/1 could look very big.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

Racing Post Chase Michel Le Bon 3pt win - 8.4 (Betfair) Backed him for the Hennessy and thought he ran a great race, quite surprised that after so long out the handicapper dropped him 2lbs for that effort. Nicholls has apparently always believed he's very good, and the signs were still there for a long way at Newbury. It's not often you can back a well regarded Nicholls' chaser off a mark of 144 at the current prices. Maybe the yard's coughing is factored in, but I'll take my chance.

1pt saver on Mount Oscar at 12/1 with VC. Was going to take 27 antepost, but thought they weren't going to run. Huge support since the market opened. Close second last year to Quinz, runs off same mark and although a 13yo, still showed all signs of ability lto.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Top Festival Trainer Alan King 1pt win - 33/1 (Boyles) Big price. In great form this year with loads of Saturday winners and has lots of big chances at the festival. Obviously hard to look past the likes of Henderson and Mullins but wouldn't be surprised to see King get two or three.

[mowgli77]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

Top Festival Trainer Alan King 1pt win - 33/1 (Boyles) Big price. In great form this year with loads of Saturday winners and has lots of big chances at the festival. Obviously hard to look past the likes of Henderson and Mullins but wouldn't be surprised to see King get two or three.

I like the look of this too, think you could have a good bet there. Do they do any ew terms? I could see top trainer being split by two trainers this year, probably with about 3 winners each and he could be one of them.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Nah no EW terms. I can't understand why people on Betfair are asking for less than 33/1. :lol Ante-post Bets Supreme Novice Darlan 1pt - 20/1 (Bet365) Cinders And Ashes 2pt EW - 20/1 (Lads) Cinders And Ashes 1pt EW - 16/1 (Coral) Tetlami 2pt EW - 16/1 (WH) Arkle Chase Sprinter Sacre 20pt win - 5/2 (Lads) Sprinter Sacre 5pt win - 3/1 (WH, game spirit combo) Cue Card 1pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) For Non Stop 0.5pt - 26.0 (Betfair) Champion Hurdle Grandouet 2pt EW - 14/1 (Lads) Three Mile Handicap Chase The Package 2pt EW - 16/1 (VC) Neptune Novices Hurdle Simonsig 4pt win - 8/1 (Bet365) RSA Chase Restless Harry 1pt win - 25/1 (WH) Champion Chase Sizing Europe 2pt - 14/1 (Ladbrokes - tingle creek combo) Ghizao 2pt - 25/1 Jewson Novice For Non Stop 1.5pt - 20.0 (Betfair) Ryanair Chase Great Endeavour 2pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) Riverside Theatre 3pt win - 7/1 (Ladbrokes) Kalahari King 2pt win - 32.00 Pertempts Sonofvic 1pt win - 17.45 (Betfair) Triumph Hurdle Balder Success 1pt win - 34.5 (Betfair) Albert Bartlett Brindisi Breeze 2.5pts EW - 12/1 (Boyles) County Hurdle Starluck 1pt win - 27.00 (Betfair) Grand Annual Toubab 1pt win - 17.00 (Betfair) Added Tetlami to my portfolio. Think he's way too big at 16s and read somewhere Barry's confirmed to ride him, no chance of this unbeaten hurdler being double figures on the day imo.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Edited that post to add in The Package and change the layout so it's in chronological order. Have backed Sonofvic at 17 for the Pertempts, Starluck for the county hurdle and Toubab in the Grand Anual. The last two at 27.0 and 17.0 respectively. Will add them to a new post when I update with more bets. Alan King prices all gone. :D

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Added in Kalahari King at 32.00 for the Ryanair. He's never ever run a bad race at Cheltenham and might have won last year but for belting a few. He beat Rubi Light yet is massive price. His form figures aren't inspiring but have to take into account who he's trained by. Very classy on his day and wouldn't be a surprise to see him have his day in the sun.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Day one Supreme Novice Darlan 1pt - 20/1 (Bet365) Cinders And Ashes 2pt EW - 20/1 (Lads) Cinders And Ashes 1pt EW - 16/1 (Coral) Tetlami 2pt EW - 16/1 (WH) Arkle Chase Sprinter Sacre 20pt win - 5/2 (Lads) Sprinter Sacre 5pt win - 3/1 (WH, game spirit combo) Cue Card 1pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) For Non Stop 0.5pt - 26.0 (Betfair) Three Mile Handicap Chase The Package 2pt EW - 16/1 (VC) Champion Hurdle Grandouet 2pt EW - 14/1 (Lads) Zaidpour w/o Hurricane Fly 2pt EW - 18/1 (Betfred) Zaidpour to place 2pt win - 8/1 (Bet365) Mares Hurdle Alasi to place - 4pt win - 3/1 (Bet365) Day Two Neptune Novices Hurdle Simonsig 4pt win - 8/1 (Bet365) RSA Chase Restless Harry 1pt win - 25/1 (WH) Champion Chase Sizing Europe 2pt - 14/1 (Ladbrokes - tingle creek combo) Ghizao 2pt - 25/1 Realt Dubh 2pt EW - 25/1 (Boyles) Not having many bets on day two as it's always been my worst day, don't like the handicaps much. I'm going to the festival tomorrow so won't post day three until the day. Good luck everyone!

[Aidymac]

Re: BKI's Betting Log :notworthy

[The Saint]

Re: BKI's Betting Log :nana Ridiculous tipping!! Truly great stuff - well done!!

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Cheers guys. Score at half-time: Staked: 66.5 Returned: 212.0 P/L: +145.5 So thrilled. Atmosphere on the first day was electric. I cannot work out what happened with Hurricane Fly. So weird. Getting that first race winner at a big price takes off so much pressure! Bring on the rest of the festival. Back with day three bets later. :)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Awesome Stuff:clap:clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Jewson Novice For Non Stop 1.5pt - 20.0 (Betfair) Champion Court - 2pt EW - 8/1 (Paddy Power) Pertempts Sonofvic 1pt win - 17.45 (Betfair) Sonofvic 1pt win - 11/1 (SJ) Prince Erik 2pt EW - 20/1 (WH) Our Father 3pt EW - 13/2 (VC, 5 places) Ryanair Chase Great Endeavour 2pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) Riverside Theatre 3pt win - 7/1 (Ladbrokes) Riverside Theatre 2pt win - 5/1 (WH) Kalahari King 2pt win - 32.00 Will add anymore bets tomorrow, absolutely shattered.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Added Our Father in the Pertempts. VC go 13/2 which seems a big price, and they're paying five places. Given so much to do lto, but still won easily beating what turned out to be a well handicapped rival, the rest nowhere. Very hard to see him out the places here.

[Aidymac]

Re: BKI's Betting Log You and Mileni have shown me the light with regard Ante-post betting... It really does pay off, all you have to do is know what your doing... Fingers crossed for you today mate

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Love ante-post man! This festival literally couldn't get any better. Enjoying it so much. Tomorrow's bets to follow.Barry is a genius. Staked: 91.0 Returned: 254.0 P/L: +163.0

[Aidymac]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Well done again BKI.. Delighted for you mate

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

You and Mileni have shown me the light with regard Ante-post betting... It really does pay off' date=' all you have to do is know what your doing... Fingers crossed for you today mate[/quote'] Antepost is so essential and most of all so easy. I'm having a mare, not a single winner on the handicaps and I've never had such a bad festival. But 2 big bets on Sacre and Riverside at 10/1 and I'm on slight profit. Very very important if you know what you're doing :)

[Aidymac]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

Antepost is so essential and most of all so easy. I'm having a mare' date=' not a single winner on the handicaps and I've never had such a bad festival. But 2 big bets on Sacre and Riverside at 10/1 and I'm on slight profit. Very very important if you know what you're doing :)[/quote'] My problem is when i look at a horse winning a race, i don't know what its target at the end of the year is going to be.... For instance, if i had picked up on Hunt Ball after it won its 3rd race of the year, a progressive looking horse, how do i then try and find out where it will run, and what its potential target may be at the end of the year? Is it all educated guesswork?

[mowgli77]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

My problem is when i look at a horse winning a race' date=' i don't know what its target at the end of the year is going to be.... For instance, if i had picked up on Hunt Ball after it won its 3rd race of the year, a progressive looking horse, how do i then try and find out where it will run, and what its potential target may be at the end of the year? Is it all educated guesswork?[/quote'] You are always going to get a few horses that are entered in multiple races and change their primary aim. Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross would be 3 examples. You will also get unlucky non runners that get injured or don't run, look at Poquelin today, pulled out before the race. A tip for you Aidy, make a list of all the races at Cheltenham, their class, their distances and other races that could be an alternative at the festival. You need to know these races and their distances and keep an eye on where a horse is likely to go next season, for example, stay hurdling or go over fences. The bookies have to 2nd guess too, they were going 12-1 Sir Des Champs the Gold Cup 2013 but priced up half a dozen races for Simonsig as it could go the Champion Hurdle route or go over fences for the Arkle. Also look at how Cheltenham races affect other races in the future such as the Kim Muir winner going to the Grand National (Ballabriggs, Junior two examples here). I had big prices on Captain Chris for the Gold Cup and can't help feeling it should have gone there. Jumped awful for the first half dozen fences, swerving to the right and hindering Riverside Theatre but once it got settled it ran on well at the end. The handicaps are harder to predict than the championship races as you have no idea what sort of a mark the horse will be running off on the day and their handicap marks are well protected by the trainers and who can blame them. Arkle winners do well in the Champion Chase, staying types of Ryanair or Gold Cup are likely to head for a King George and the bumper horses are likely to go novice hurdling. Bookies overreact after nearly every winning performance and likewise a losing one. Baby Mix was an early 6-1 favourite for the Triumph and then got pushed out to about 20-1 and was then cut again after its last win. Was it BKI or Rupert on here that took 33's about Burton Port for the Gold Cup? Very shrewd and massive when you consider the price now. I haven't had as many ante post bets this season but 2 decent priced winners put me in profit straight away (Cinders and Ashes and Rock On Ruby). Also worth keeping an eye on the Weekender as a few of those put up ante post bets well in advance. Well done with yours so far BKI, top tipping mate. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Thanks mate. I've had an unbelievable festival, more winners and places than posted here. Only reason I didn't post was because I'm not very confident with handicap selections. Aidy for me it's simply gut feeling. Nothing more. I don't really bet antepost on handicaps, and it's easier to predict where they're going in the graded races. Triumph Hurdle Balder Succes 1pt win - 34.5 (Betfair) Balder Succes 3pt win - 8/1 (Bet365) County Hurdle Starluck 1pt win - 27.00 (Betfair) Starluck 1pt win - 42.00 (Betfair) Raya Star 2pt EW - 11/1 (Bet365, 5 places) Olofi 2pt EW - 12/1 (Bet365, 5 places) Olofi 1pt EW - 11/1 (Bet365, 5 places) Hell's Bay 0.5pt - 120.0 (Betfair) Albert Bartlett Brindisi Breeze 2.5pts EW - 12/1 (Boyles) Gold Cup What a Friend w/o LR/KS 2pt EW - 10/1 (Bet365) The Midnight Club w/o LR/KS 1pt EW - 50/1 (WH) Synchronised 2pt EW - 12/1 (Boyles) Martin Pipe Empire Levant 2pt EW - 25/1 (Bet365) Grand Annual Toubab 1pt win - 17.00 (Betfair) Short reasoning but Olofi and Raya Star are still progressive and both able to land blows in this company. Hell's Bay if anywhere near his previous chase form would have a huge chance off 137 and with Tizzard's going well is worth a few quid. What a Friend ran a blinder last year and another blinder in the Aon. Should not be so big without the front two. Midnight Club stays the distance and more, if there's a cracking pace on he could run into a place easily. Empire Levant's form with Rock on Ruby and Raya Star looks very good, and gets big weight off with Derham on board. Trip will suit him better than it did in the Totesport. Rest are antepost bets.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Added three more. Went in again on Olofi. Getting backed a bit and he's ran some crackers lately, unluckly not to win a big handicap earlier in the year. Backed Balder Succes again as I feel he should be shorter than 8/1. I just cannot get away from Synchronised at 12/1 in the Gold Cup. He's guaranteed to stay and looked awesome in the Lexus. So the form isn't the best, but he trounced them. The Gold Cup's extra distance will play right into his hands.

[Aidymac]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Well done again mate..

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Festival Total Staked: 127.5 Returned: 330.5 P/L: +203.0 Jump Season Total Staked: 446.5 Returned: 734.99 Profit/Loss: +288.49 Simon Holt's 'and he's going to outstay them up the hill' line will forever be in my head. Best festival ever.:D

[stewartd14]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Congrats on a tremendous festival BKI :clap:clap:clap

[cantspell]

Re: BKI's Betting Log I did some ante posts for the first time as a result of being inspired by the thread - I had Rock on Ruby, Sprinter Sacre, Cinders and Ashes, Simonsig, Brindisi Breeze, Salsify based on performances I liked - had I bet on the day I think only Sprinter and Salsify would have survived. I had Rubi Light, although didn't go for Synchronised when he beat Rubi in the Lexus as I thought lOng Run and Kauro would be better Did have some winners on the day, such as Sir De Champs. I liked Hunt Ball, but was worried about the weight, but when I saw the actual race had a very narrow handicap- 10lbs from memory I think I can do better next time, missed Riverside for the same reason, but I can learn from that Was able to trade on horses like Menorah and tried to do the same with Dynaste less success there and had some good trades on the Triumph as that was so unpredictable this year. Conclusion is I will do this again, so thanks BKI & mileni for inspiring me

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:55 Wincanton Silver Gypsy 3pt EW - 12/1 (WH) On best hurdle form, this is a huge price. Races off effectively 126 tomorrow and was clearly given a confidence booster lto, being held up (normally leads), and making good progress when all was lost.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Jump Betting Log Jumps season nearly finished, few more big meetings to go then I'll wrap the thread up for the season. Took a bit of time out after Chelt, so didn't post any selections. Had a decent Fairyhouse but an average Aintree. Hopefully a better Punchestown! 3:10 Cheltenham Silver Gypsy 3pt EW - 12/1 (boyles) Same reason as above. Horse was a NR lto, but is declared to run tomorrow. Conditions are there to suit, and the horse as I said showed signs of comign to life lto after a failed chasing campaign. On best form it's a big price so well worth the risk.