BKI's Jump Betting Log

[Aidymac]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Uncle Junior! :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Actually couldn't believe his price, given he was guaranteed to stay whereas others weren't! Morgiana Hurdle Oscars well 2pt win - 9/4 (Ladbrokes) Thousand Stars 2pt win - 3/1 (Ladbrokes) Really can't work out why Pittoni is fav. Beat Donnas Palm easily lto, but he isn't a two mile hurdle yardstick. 11/8 is a joke. Oscars Well blew up lto, so I expect him to come on a lot for that. He tired badly after hacking to the lead, I think two miles won't be a problem. Thousand Stars was an exceptional yardstick last year, always close to HF, fourth in the CH, second in the Aintree Hurdle and then won the French Champion. Shouldn't be 3/1 against less experienced horses. Never rated So Young, and although he'll probably have his day, I don't think it'll be this race.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log My computers been moved, it should be back by morning but if not my bets are: Grandouet 3pts at 10/11. Robinson Collonges 2pts EW at 7/1 Gertacrue 1pt EW at 7/1 Diamond Harry 2pts at 5/1

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 12:15 Haydock Grandouet 3pts at 10/11 (Ladbrokes) Grandouet is without doubt a high-class horse and proved that with his third in the Triumph and easy win at Punchestown. He was cantering all over Celestial Halo on his reappearance and looked set to win easily before taking a fall. He's usually a sound jumper. Was also brought down at Aintree when travelling well in behind Zarkandar and Kumbeshwar, looked likely to play a huge part. I think anything above 4/6 is a decent price here. 2:30 Haydock Robinson Collonges 2pts EW - 7/1 (William Hill) I'd say he needed his reappearance behind when third in a good handicap at Chepstow, and despite being raised 2lbs for that effort he looks extremely well in on what we've seen of him so far. Didn't appear interested at Cheltenham or Aintree but the return to hurdles seems to have regained his confidence and off 136 I'll be extremely disappointed if he can't make the frame at least. The trip is my only concern. 3:05 Haydock Diamond Harry 2pt win - 5/1 (William Hill) High class horse on his day, which is usually first time out so worth chancing against a main rival that will be trained for the King George and Gold Cup. Weird Al could be vulnerable after winning the Charlie Hall, probably had a harder race than it looked. Time for Rupert has it to prove and with the lack of pace in the race I don't think it's the right time to back him. Everything about Kauto's season last year says he's not up to this level anymore, and actually think his price is a bit daft. Maybe he's showing up well at home, but how many older horses have earnt similar praise without backing it up? Loads. I'd absolutely love him to win, or go close though. Diamond Harry has won at Haydock both times he's been there, including his easy chasing debut. I think he's very much suited to the course and will be hard to beat first time out. 1:55 Haydock Gertacrue 1pt EW - 7/1 (Bet365) He's well in on best hurdles form but has always looked like he needs a trip, which he gets today over 3m4f. Stayed on nicely on chase debut over three miles after being considerably outpaced, but that was his first run for a long time so should strip fitter. Big chance of 121 if the trip suits. 3:05 Ascot Oscar Whisky 5pt win - 5/4 (William Hill) Absolute, 100% banker for me. Only ever been beaten twice in his life. Both at Cheltenham, and compared to his rivals, he's been so inexperienced in those races. Just two races over hurdles before the Supreme, in which he was fairly unlucky not to finish closer to the front three, and the Champion Hurdle, on only his 8th ever start. He's a bumper horse and will want further, but definitely does not lack speed. Beat Thousand Stars at Aintree too, and that one is as solid as they come. In this race the market says he has to beat Overturn and King of the Night. Overturn is admirable, but up against the cream of the crop he falls short over hurdles, and I expect the same here. He'll make a nice pace for OW. King of the Night is on a laughable rating and will now, imo, be impossible to place this year. I don't think he deserves 157 after winning two average handicaps with ease, but we'll see.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Champion Hurdle Grandouet 2pt win - 14/1 (Ladbrokes) So impressive again today, and has a really good profile. If he can win a big CH trial, might start single figues on the day. Form figures would read 1111 if it wasn't for bad luck, and hopefully he's developed a bit more stamina because from cruising in the Triumph he seemed to empty out. Still lightly raced and in the best hands possible for this race. Spirit Son's had a setback and Bino was disappointing last year, so could be Henderson's CH horse.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Staked: 50.00 Returned: 33.67 Profit/Loss: -16.33 Not a great start, but it's early days. Oscar cost me a lot, but Barry had to go for him to win the race so no complaints. Gurtacrue is worth following, made too many mistakes but stuck on well. Can't believe the bookies had Pittoni as 5/4 fav at one point, what were they playing at? Thousand Stars is so underrated.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Hennessy Gold Cup The Giant Bolster 1.5pt EW - 20/1 (PP, four places) Planet of Sound 1pt win - 14/1 (PP) Michel Le Bon 1pt win - 8/1 (Bet365) Great Endeavour 0.5pt win - 7/1 (Bet365) I think the Nicholls fav is well worth taking on, he'll struggle imo off 158, though whenever I pick one out to oppose, it usually wins! We never got to see whether the perseverance with The Giant Bolster's jumping paid off as he unseated at the first in the PP Gold Cup, but I thought the trip was on the short side as it was. Now, over three miles he's worth a decent bet. Very well handicapped off 146 imo and was always a big fan of him last year. Planet of Sound hasn't been seen since the King George, but goes alright fresh and is definitely better than 158. He gets three miles and has won three times from four visits to the course, finishing second the other time. Michel Le Bon is worth a bet, though I've missed the good prices, Nicholls thinks a lot of the horse and he's probably well handicapped with only one easy chase win to his name and being incredibly lightly raced. He can get these horses to the track from long lay offs as we've seen in the past. GE was impressive at Cheltenham and is still pretty unexposed at the trip so has to be worth a saver, not to mention the form Pipe's in.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:45 Newbury Rackham Lerouge 2pt win - 7/1 (William Hill) Is usually far too keen, but hopefully the bigger field will help him here. He has a decent record in fields with 10 or more runners, finishing second on UK debut and then winning over hurdles. Was put away for chasing and ran a fine third on debut behind Medermit and Tullamore Dew, obviously the form with Medermit looks better than it is. Still an encouraging debut, but he couldn't follow up despite an easy win at Towcester. Maybe he doesn't stay this far, but he was beat well before stamina came into play on his last two starts imo. He's worth chancing at the price off a mark of 132, and with Henderson in his current form you'd expect him to be ready.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 12:50 Uttox Cross Kennon 3pt win - 3/1 (Boyles) Only reason I'm not staking more is down to poor chase debut and size of the field but the return to a left handed track is going to suit him hugely and on hurdle form he has an outstanding chance. Followed him for a long time now so hope he builds on a poor first show over fences.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

1:45 Cheltenham Oh Crick 1pt EW - 14/1 (WH) Always needs his first race so I'm not put off by his reappearance behind Tatatiano. Runs off just two lbs higher than his last winning mark, and despite not winning for two years, he's now beginning to drop back to a workable mark, whereas before he was verging on 160, so impossible to place. Now off 141 he has a chance, has won twice at the track and will appreciate a good ground two miles.

Nothing changes, he's dropped to 139 (last winning mark) for that, travelled well and wasn't asked for much when the race got going. 3pts at 10/1 (Ladbrokes) for the 3:15 at Newbury tomorrow.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:35 Newbury Cue Card 3pt win - 9/4 (William Hill) I think the market's really weird here. Bob's Worth is unbeaten over hurdles, yes, but the form isn't rock solid and he's not had any public experience over fences whereas Cue Card has. CC does have to concede 7lbs but has to be the bet at 9/4, especially with the trip looking more likely to suit him than it will BW. If he drifts out I might try saving stake on him but at the prices Cue Card is the bet.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Cross Kennon doesn't jump at all well, and out to the right. Shame. Rackham doesn't stay, dropped back in trip I'll be interested off his mark. Similar to the way his half-bro Punchestowns travels imo, obviously far less class. Oh Crick will win a race soon off his mark so I'll stay interested, ran well today. Cue Card looked 1.01 to me jumping the second last, Tizzard took an age to find a stride jumping the last and markedly let him run it down rather than attack, which cost him the race. Nice to see Bob's Worth look a good chaser though, love that horse. 2:05 Newbury Titan De Sarti 2pts EW - 10/1 (VC) Hennessy Gold Cup (already posted) The Giant Bolster 1.5pt EW - 20/1 (PP, four places) Planet of Sound 1pt win - 14/1 (PP) Michel Le Bon 1pt win - 8/1 (Bet365) Great Endeavour 0.5pt win - 7/1 (Bet365) 3:45 Newbury Osric 1pt EW - 14/1 (VC) Back with reasoning later.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:05 Newbury Titan De Sarti Only six runs to date, but was clearly well thought of going off favourite at Cheltenham for his debut, and well fancied on every other run. He had Empire Levant behind him when second to Third Intention on his second start, and the Nicholls horse concedes a pound here. He was impressive hacking up yesterday, but the rivals he beat looked atrocious on paper. There was a fall also, and that horse badly hampered another that was going ok. Titan has apparently come on a lot over the summer. He wasn't really put into the Fred Winter and has been off since then. They're in great form, and you'd have to say he'd be disappointing if not able to defy a mark of 127 at some stage of his career. I'll be having one point each-way on Rock On Ruby too. This horse did nothing but improve last year and ran a gallant race behind Bob's Worth at Cheltenham, only to be chinned by First Lieutenant at the festival when looking home for all money. Two miles might be on the sharp side, but he could be better than 145 and could outclass them even with top weight. 6/1 with William Hill.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:45 Newbury Osric Races over what is probably his best trip and only carries 10-10 with Fristral Beach in the line-up. Hasn't always been the most straight-forward, beaten at short-odds when fancied a few times, but certainly has talent and is able to overcome a mark of 129. Was tipped up in a few places for the Centenary at Cheltenham in which he was travelling well and creeping into it but just couldn't get home for some reason. If the problem has been sorted, he'll run well off this mark.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:20 Bangor Wolf Moon 2pt EW - 6/1 (Ladbrokes) Was on lto and looked the winner a long way before getting run out of things close home. Doesn't go up in the weights and has to have a similar chance of winning here. Perhaps if not as much use is made of him he'll have a better chance.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log King George Captain Chris 2pt win - 8.25/1 (Betfair) High class horse with the stamina to win this. I think he's massive value at the price. I'm glad they side-stepped the Amlin for whatever reason. He'll be spot on for this race and although Long Run seems to love Kempton, I think he's starting to look more and more overrated. Captain Chris is a genuinely class horse, does not stop running on and is able to hold his position. Won the Arkle going away and then drew the sting out of Realt Dubh in Ireland. Was going to win the Haldon but unseated at the last. He looked beat but kept on, and you can't imagine he was fully tuned up. He was also carrying top weight. You've got to remember even Kauto couldn't win this off 149 back in 2005, and he'd had a similar amount of racing albeit it in France. There's no chance Master Minded will be able to cruise round here, if he's off the bridle in behind horses he'll fall into a hole. I'll probably save on Somersby if he goes, simply because I think he's got more stamina and will run on. Didn't like what I saw from Wishful in the PPGC, think he's dropping down in trip anyway. The rest I'm not too sure on, but I'm happy with the price for CC.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Arkle Cue Card 1pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) I think the price is too big for Cue Card in the Arkle. I cannot see him, after today, staying at 2m4f. Think they've gotta drop back in trip. He's exuberant and he won't finish the race at Cheltenham over further. He does stay further but doesn't settle well enough and I think that'd suit him in the Arkle. I know he has Peddlers and Al Ferof to contend with if they make it, but we've seen many top hurdlers not make the transition when upped in class. Both have looked impressive against fields they should be cantering over. Cue Card has at least travelled and ran well against better opposition. If they bring him back to two miles and he wins, price could half.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Staked: 78.50 Returned: 43.17 Profit/Loss: -35.33 No good so far. Annoying today, all selections backed in but just one winning. Titan De Sarti carried on where he left off, hard to see him winning. Backed into 13/2 from the 12s last night. Rock on Ruby came in from 6/1 to 7/2 and won easily, outclassed a poor field. Osric backed in from 14s to 7/2, almost went off fav, travelled well but again didn't finish off his race. Wolf Moon backed into 7/2, never really travelled but ran on for third in a seven horse race! All backed in so slightly disappointing, especially with Cue Card's defeat thrown in the day before. Tomorrow I'm backing Stonemaster in the Irish race at 14/1, 1.5pts EW. Five places on offer, back with reasoning.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Gone off strong favourite twice in three starts over fences, but hasn't looked great. On best hurdle form though, he's too well in and only carries 10-00 here. Worry has to be the trip, but he's stuck on well over 2m5 in testing conditions in the past and it might be ideal to get him jumping. Worth a chance at the price.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Cheltenham 2012 Bets RSA Chase Restless Harry 1pt win - 25/1 (WH) Champion Hurdle Grandouet 2pt EW - 14/1 (Lads) Arkle Chase Cue Card 1pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) Ryanair Chase Great Endeavour 2pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) Forgot to edit post about Grandouet, went each-way instead of win. Price is still available. Added Great Endeavour when I saw 20 available for the Ryanair. Ran a fine race in the Hennessy, coming with a good run before flattening out and being overtaken for fourth. Clearly loves the two mile five trip, and is definitely capable of serving it up to the likes of Albertas/Kalahari King. Hope that's his target come March. Not given up on Restless Harry bet, RSA will be won by a thorough stayer and RH was given a very poor ride on chase debut.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Tingle Creek Tataniano 2pt EW - 9/2 (PP, 3 places) Sizing Europe 2pt - 5/2 (Lads) Can see Finian's being the drifter here, and Tataniano coming in. He's overpriced, won a handicap lto off 160 without coming off the bridle. Doesn't have to dominate from the outset as shown at Aintree, almost all principles here want the lead or thereabouts. I think with three places he's too big though, especially with Nicholls' record in the race, having won every renewal since 2005. Sizing has to be a saver at the price, form over two miles is the best on offer, expected him to be about 13/8.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:55 Sandown Simonsig 3pt - 2/1 (Betfred) Jump City 1pt - 8.8/1 (Betfair) Sizing Symphony 1pt - 10.5/1 (Betfair) I really think Fingal Bay is poor value here. His form lto, although a grade 2, doesn't amount to much. The horse in second hasn't achieved anything, and I remember Nicholls in an interview saying Polisky wasn't up to much. He made a pretty bad blunder and still won well enough, but you'd expect that from a 4/5 shot. Faces markedly better opposition today, and comes here on the back of two pretty close together races, so it might've taken more out of him that in looks. There's also a ground doubt from Hobbs. It might be foolish to take on this unbeaten grade two winner with Simonsig, who's never raced in graded company, but I'll try anyway. He's yet to come off bridle in any race, will like the good ground and looks to have bags of speed, trained by Henderson but is the second fav. If you take out Fingal he'd be easily odds-on, and with my doubts about the fav I think he's a good bet at 2/1. He jumped really well on debut so looks to have no problem in that regard either. Sizing Symphony warrants respect and comes here after easily beating a Nicholls horse at Cheltenham in October. He's only rated two pounds inferior to Fingal Bay yet is a huge price in comparison, and left the impression that there's a lot more to come. Jump City is the other danger, who's form is stacking up fairly well and despite not being visually impressive lto, looked to need a step-up in trip as he stayed on powerfully and looked to be getting better at the finish.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:30 Sandown Golan Way 2pt EW - 10/1 (William Hill) Worth a speculative bet on this high class chaser, who may well be able to get a soft lead and dictate. Quinz ran a really disappointing race on return and is left with something to prove. Boston's Angel is the one to beat on form but he won a poor RSA, a race from which the winners don't always go on, and he unseated last time out. At 13/8 he isn't worth chancing. Benbane head has a bit to find on form and Royal Charm looks a bit overrated and exposed, might not like a great test of stamina either. Golan Way looks a great each-way bet at the prices imo.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log To win Tingle Creek and Champion Chase double Sizing Europe 2pts - 14/1 (Ladbrokes) Backed him with Tataniano for the TC on Saturday, but this price just looks too big to turn down. He's almost definitely going to go off favourite, the line-up strongly suggests this will be a fast run two miles which is exactly what he needs. Starting to regret making Tataniano the main bet, as going over his form it looks incredibly suspect, but I'm happy with 9/2 and think he should be in the top three. Sizing though is very much the class act, winning the Champion Chase in impressive style and going down a head (I think) to Big Zeb at Punchestown. If he wins on Saturday 14/1 would be an immense price, if he doesn't, 2pts isn't the end of the world.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Get in there Golan :D One for tomorrow, back with reasoning. 2:30 Sandown Gibb River 2pt EW - 10/1 (William Hill)

[cpo]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

2:30 Sandown Golan Way 2pt EW - 10/1 (William Hill) Worth a speculative bet on this high class chaser, who may well be able to get a soft lead and dictate. Quinz ran a really disappointing race on return and is left with something to prove. Boston's Angel is the one to beat on form but he won a poor RSA, a race from which the winners don't always go on, and he unseated last time out. At 13/8 he isn't worth chancing. Benbane head has a bit to find on form and Royal Charm looks a bit overrated and exposed, might not like a great test of stamina either. Golan Way looks a great each-way bet at the prices imo.

Very nice :ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Yes, very nice indeed :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Thanks, guys. Needed that with Tataniano's withdrawal and the novice hurdle before that. Got Fingal Bay all wrong, he was very impressive. Simonsig is clearly a very good horse too, was a great race. Staked: 94.50 Returned: 77.17 Profit/Loss: -17.43 Stakes don't include Gibb River and Sizing to win tomorrow. All Chelt bets will be added to the totals in March.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:30 Sandown Gibb River 2pt EW - 10/1 (William Hill) Wasn't one of Henderson's obvious Supreme horses, but went anyway and was found out after racking up three easy hurdle wins. Handicaps are probably where his future lies. Had he gone straight into handicap company after his three hurdle wins he'd probably be favourite or near enough. Thanks to the Supreme we get a better price, and his three hurdle wins have all been with soft ground in the description, so won't mind any rain. Was a high class flat horse (85 at peak), though he somehow never won. He's still very lightly raced too, and I think it's quite likely he'll be able to improve on a rating of 139 as the season goes on. 1:55 Sandown For Non Stop (w/o Al Ferof) 2pt EW - 5/1 (PP) For Non Stop 1pt EW - 16/1 (Blue Square) For Non Stop was very much given a confidence booster lto, after unseating on chase debut. Was going easily at the time and probably would've run. Has looked to have the pace for two miles, and they must rate his jumping to pitch him in a race like this after unseating on debut. He was better than everything bar Eradicate over hurdles, and I'll be very surprised if he can't make the first two without the fav. Incase anything happens to the fav, 16/1 is a too big a price to ignore and is worthy of a bet. I can't believe Lidar's price, won a horrible race lto, the Henderson novice he beat has always looked bad.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:40 Sandown Deep Purple 2pt EW - 12/1 (Ladbrokes) Madison Du Berlais 1pt win - 7/1 (PP) Do it for Dalkey 1.5pt win - 4/1 (PP) Deep Purple goes well fresh and usually runs a good race in December, 12/1 could look massive. Evan Williams is in smashing form too. I think this race could be a case of the higher weighted horses outclassing the ones at the other end of the scale, even over this long distance. The trip is the problem, but he stays three miles and isn't tried beyond, so is worth chancing. Madison has looked out of sorts for ages, but there was a bit to like about the way he travelled early on on reappearance and should strip fitter. He's obviously very well handicapped now. Do it for Dalkey looks the unexposed one at bottom of the weights and is worthy of a saver bet too.