BKI Punter Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 12:35 Aintree Dontpaytheferryman 1pt EW - 20/1 (PP) Does look to have a bit to find to win in this company, but is well handicapped on best hurdles form and ran an encouraging race back over hurdles two starts ago, when outpaced and staying on. Will like any juice in the ground which there should be, and has an absolutely tiny weight to carry. Hard to imagine there's huge improvement to come from a horse who has seen the track fifty-one times, but amazingly he's only six, and improved from a 40 rated flat horse to 81. Wouldn't surprise me if he could be a 130 hurdler. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Won't be backing him but will be hoping for a good run from Restless Harry at Chepstow, should enjoy the stamina test and reverse form with Teaforthree. If he can't win a race like that I'll probably consider the RSA bet done with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:00 Chepstow Restless Harry 4pt win - 15/8 Changed my mind now he's out to 15/8, was 13/8 when I last looked. This price looks very fair. Was given a very poor ride lto, jockey seemed to have no confidence and Restless Harry was full of running at the finish. Will relish this strong test of stamina, three miles in heavy shouldn't be a problem. Very disappointing if he can't reverse form with his main danger today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:25 Sandown Cantlow 2pt EW - 14/1 (WH) Gone out like a light after travelling well in both recent starts over three miles, and although he won a maiden hurdle over three, he might not stay in better company so the drop in trip makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Tingle Creek Tataniano 2pt EW - 9/2 (PP, 3 places) - antepost Sizing Europe 2pt - 5/2 (Lads) - antepost Sizing Europe 2pt - 2/1 (Bet365) Wishful Thinking 2pt - 10/3 (Bet365) Tataniano out now, which is a shame. Want to be against Kauto Stone despite Nicholls' record. Was impressive on debut, but over a different trip and completely different opposition. Price is based on Nicholls/Ruby and Kauto Star's exploits and can't be taken imo. Wishful is worthy of a saver, always shown speed and is unexposed at the trip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 12:35 Aintree Dontpaytheferryman 1pt EW - 20/1 (PP) Does look to have a bit to find to win in this company, but is well handicapped on best hurdles form and ran an encouraging race back over hurdles two starts ago, when outpaced and staying on. Will like any juice in the ground which there should be, and has an absolutely tiny weight to carry. Hard to imagine there's huge improvement to come from a horse who has seen the track fifty-one times, but amazingly he's only six, and improved from a 40 rated flat horse to 81. Wouldn't surprise me if he could be a 130 hurdler. 2pt win on Reindeer Dippin too. Returns to 20f, where he ran second to Russian War off same mark today, albeit with claimer on board. Wasn't a lot to like about his reappearance, but he hasn't proven he stays three miles so can be forgiven. Team are in good form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log That's 11/2 with VC. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Can't quite believe how well the day went. Reindeer Dippin looked the winner in his race, but emptied out up the run-in. Gibb River went agonizingly close but still landed the each-way bet. For Non Stop was even better than I expected, travelled well and almost beat Al Ferof, trading at 1.3 I think. Thought the bet without was a steal, and so it proved. Dontpaytheferryman kept on well for fourth, just out of the places. Restless Harry jumps too slowly and I've considered the RSA bet pretty much dead, though we'll see. Cantlow found one just too well handicapped, ran very well though. Sizing won as the form said he should. Deep Purple proved he has the stamina by winning the last very nicely, taking it up at the final fence and staying on to the line. Wish every day was like this! Last week, was -35 so very happy to have turned that around and hopefully it keeps going. :D +48 on the day, +20 yesterday. Staked: 133.0 Returned: 161.67 Profit/Loss: +28.67 Plus, I've got 2pts on Sizing to win Champion Chase now, at 14/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Thanks, mate. :ok Cheltenham 2012 Bets RSA Chase Restless Harry 1pt win - 25/1 (WH) Champion Hurdle Grandouet 2pt EW - 14/1 (Lads) Arkle Chase Cue Card 1pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) For Non Stop 0.5pt - 26.0 (Betfair) Ryanair Chase Great Endeavour 2pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) Jewson Novice For Non Stop 1.5pt - 20.0 (Betfair) Champion Chase Sizing Europe 2pt - 14/1 (Ladbrokes - tingle creek combo) Ghizao 2pt - 25/1 I think it'd be a mistake to aim FNS at the Arkle, especially with Peddlers in there. He's just ran the Arkle second fav to a neck on his first completed chase start, and we know he stays further. If this race becomes his aim, he's a leading player, and although there are three options to choose from, the price is too big to wait on. I'll have a small saver on the Arkle incase connections opt for that route. RSA shouldn't be the one. Edit: forgot to add the Ghizao bet in the Champion Chase a from a while back. Wasn't an encouraging run in the Haldon so has it all to prove. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Spinal Research Gold Cup Quel Esprit 1pt EW - 14/1 (Ladbrokes) Great Endeavour 1pt EW - 9/1 (PP) Taking a bit of a risk as both could be NR's, but both are big prices if they turn up. Quel Esprit has been luckless over fences so far, and although I used to think he was very overrated, he looks well handicapped if he takes his chance and will definitely be single figures. Was travelling well in the RSA when falling, then brought down at Punchestown. Won easily on return to action last month, so will be in good shape. Great Endeavour back to a more suitable trip is still a danger of his handicap mark, and I'm hoping he goes close for the sake of my Ryanair bet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:30 Southwell Captain Scooby 1pt EW - 14/1 (PP) Kept backing him but he had no luck in running every time, then when I miss him he racks up a treble in a week. He enjoys five furlongs on a slow surface so has ideal conditions tomorrow, and taking into account the claim he's only 1lb above his last winning mark, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Staked: 135.0 Returned: 167.67 Profit/Loss: +32.67 Captain Scooby went off at 20/1 and ran well to be third. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log International Hurdle Grandouet 5pt EW - 3/1 (Lads) Fascinating renewal of the race on Saturday, and I'm siding with my ante-post bet for the Champion Hurdle in Grandouet. He needs to beat Menorah, Overturn and Brampour (main rivals). The Hobbs' team clearly want to exploit the fact that Hurricane Fly has had a well documented setback, and who could blame them? However, his form last year was very much overrated going into the CH, and although he's a top class horse, he had his chance to make it last year and couldn't quite make an impression at the top level, being soundly beaten at both Cheltenham and Punchestown. The current 4/1 on offer will no doubt tempt many, and he probably will start shorter, but the opposition compared to last year seem stronger, and I think he's exposed. Overturn has excelled himself this season, and proven to be an extremely tough nut to crack. However, his last two wins have been beatings of Henderson hurdlers who've been making their seasonal debuts, and trying to peg back a race-fit front-runner has proven difficult. All main rivals on Saturday should be fit enough, and his only race at Cheltenham to date saw him finish seventh in the Champion. I think his rating of 168 flatters him slightly, and he's no value for me at 4s. Brampour is interesting, but taking into account the jockey's claim, he's won two handicaps off marks of 132 and 142. The Greatwood didn't look a fantastic renewal either, although to his credit he won it with some authority. A revelation since his breating op, but taking 9/2 against this field seems a little short on what he's achieved, but you can't discard him to give a good account of himself at this level. Of the rest, Pittoni is a disgraceful price at 10s, he was soundly beaten by Thousand Stars lto and as I said earlier in the thread was one of the strangest antepost favourites I've ever seen for a grade one race. Clerk's Choice can be trusted to run a fine race given he gets a strong pace, which he should, but will in all likelihood fall short at this level. The same applies to Sanctuaire, who if having grade one pretensions this season, should've gone close in the Greatwood off a mark of 150. He can't be trusted to settle either. Abergaveanny is proabably the most interesting of the outsiders, finishing third in the Greatwood and still on the improve, however, he isn't the most fluent jumper and off 130, should've won the Greatwood if he's to make an impact here. Marsh Warbler and Stormy Weather look outclassed on two mile form to date. This brings me onto Grandouet, who looks set to make the step-up to the top level and land a third International Hurdle for Nicky Henderson. He went off second favourite for the Triumph, and raced pretty prominently before taking up the running going well turning for home. He kept on all the way to the line but couldn't match the first two. Of all the prominent runners, he fared best, and no doubt hit the front way too early, which would not have suited. Held up at Aintree, he looked to be travelling well before being brought down, and taking the view that Zarkandar ran a flat race, he probably would've won. Confirmed his promise by easily winning at Punchestown and was then put away. He clearly would've beaten Celestial Halo had he not, for some reason, decided to take off way too soon and give Barry no chance. Got back to winning ways when never coming off the bridle to beat Marsh Warbler at Haydock a few weeks back. The form mightn't amount to a great deal, but when you take into account he was one of last year's top novices, who didn't get his run of the race in the Triumph and with a bit of luck, would be unbeaten since then, the price is fair. Not to mention he's trained by Henderson, and Geraghty will be riding. It'll be very disappointing if he can't make the frame, with obvious chinks in one or two of the dangers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Supreme Novices Darlan 1pt - 20/1 (Bet365) Henderson hurdler who is 2/2 so far, one bumper and an easy introduction to hurdling (1/4f, never off bridle). He's set to run on Friday at Cheltenham over two miles against some fair novices, and if he wins that well, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him shortened markedly. He's trading at less on Betfair (even matched at 14.0), isn't in the Neptune market and I think Simonsig isn't a two miler. I went through every runner in antepost markets for this race yesterday, and think the value lies with this horse and Cinders and Ashes, but I think that one's trip is more uncertain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:00 Huntingdon Somersby 4pt win - 15/8 (VC) Gauvain 2pt EW - 8/1 (PP) Surfing 2pt win - 9/1 (Boyles) Very good renewal of the Peterborough chase tomorrow, a race in which Hen Knight has dominated over the years and is duly represented by her high class chaser Somersby, who has top class form in behind the likes of Sizing Europe and Master Minded. This slightly extended trip is sure to play to his strengths and put him on target for a stab at the King George, and 15/8 doesn't look a bad price when you consider he is race fit in and in top form. Gauvain has to rate a big danger. He departed too early in the Tingle Creek to know how he would've fared, but on seasonal reappearance he won easily, beating Woolcombe Folly at Cheltenham. Although the bare form doesn't amount to a great deal, he won it in the style of a top chaser, and shouldn't be 8/1 over this trip, which he should thrive over. He gave Riverside Theatre a good race over slightly further last year, and in comparison to most rivals looks to have a leading chance. Surfing is worthy of a saver, he showed high class form on his first UK race last year behind Ghizao and Captain Chris, pulling a long way clear of the fourth. You'd expect him to improve over further given his winning form in testing conditions over 2m2f in France and is only five years old, he could be anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Nice performance from Gauvain! 12:35 Chelt Tony Star 2pt EW 9/1 (PP) 1:45 Chelt Knockara Beau 2pt EW 15/2 (WH) Reasoning later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:10 Chelt Nudge And Nurdle 1pt EW 12/1 (VC) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 12:35 Chelt Tony Star 2pt EW - 9/1 (PP, 15/2 now top price) My first thought after his last race was that the ride he was given was a poor one, given too much to do. He bumped into one of King's well handcapped ones though and couldn't make up the ground conceding weight. I'm surprised he hasn't gone up in the weights, and the time before that he ran second to a well handicapped Nicholls horse, so was still clear of the remainder (not that there were many). He's still well handicapped off his mark and worth chancing with a dodgy fav in the field. 1:45 Chelt Knockara Beau 2pt EW - 15/2 (WH, top price now 11/2) Again I think we've got a dodgy fav in the race who's worth taking on. Mon Parrain's first two handicap efforts in the country were impressive, but with hindsight he's probably been overrated down to who he's trained by. He couldn't defy a rating of 152 in the PP Gold Cup, and it wasn't a very encouraging first visit to Prestbury Park. He didn't stay on noticeably and despite Nicholls' saying he wants a trip, he's worth taking on. He didn't look like a high class horse just needing further, like Long Run did the year before. Knockara Beau is a tough horse who has shown his class time and time again, ending the 2010 season with two great efforts in the RSA and Mildmay and last year finished second to Grands Crus in the Cleeve, and won a handicap off 148 over hurdles. Ran a very game race at the festival off 156 to finish fourth, so whatever way you look at it the chances are he's well in off 143 here, over his best trip. Needed his reappearance last year so you can excuse his first run over hurdles this year. He hasn't really ever failed to run a good race at Cheltenham, although the form figures aren't exactly appealing, they've been some seriously classy races and he's the type that would outclass horses in handicaps with a big weight, not to mention he thrives in smaller fields. 1:10 Chelt Nudge and Nurdle 1pt EW - 12/1 (VC) Speculative one here but he's well in on old form, and Willie takes off a lot of weight. The return to 2m5f is a big positive and he likes good ground. The worry has to be NTD's form at this time of the year, but price makes up for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Happy with the prices I'm getting, all horses going off markedly shorter. Knockara Beau outstayed Mon Parrain for second but couldn't beat the well handicapped winner. Staked: 157.0 Returned: 196.62 Profit/Loss: +39.62 Hoping Darlan does the business later for the Supreme bet (20's gone now), he should do at those odds. Grandouet is 11/4 best price, I really can't see him out the three so I'm really happy with the bet. Quel Esprit was taken out of the Decemeber Gold Cup so I've already added that to the stakes. I'll probably back GE again at 8s, as I still think he's well handicapped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Spinal Research Gold Cup Quel Esprit 1pt EW - 14/1 (Ladbrokes) - NR Great Endeavour 1pt EW - 9/1 (PP) - already posted Great Endeavour 1pt EW - 8/1 (William Hill) Salut Flo 1pt EW - 14/1 (WH) Salut Flo has to be worthy of a saver here with how well Pipe is doing in the big races this year. Only had two chase starts in the UK, easily winning his first and then finishing second to Prince Du Beauchene on his second start, pulling miles clear of the third. Has excellent jockey on board and Pipe is a master at getting them ready fto. Wouldn't be surprised to see him have 1-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:20 Cheltenham Astracad 2pt EW - 11/2 (WH) Oiseau de Nuit 1pt EW - 16/1 (Lads) First handicap chase for the Twiston-Davies horse and most definitely looks fairly treated. Ran really well behind Al Ferof lto, just couldn't match the much classier horse. Won well on chase debut, of course you never know what would've happened had Champion Court stood up, but he didn't, and Astracad jumped well that day. He does face a lot of battle-hardened handicappers here, but a lot of them don't look well handicapped, and Astracad only carries 10-12. Oiseau de Nuit isn't greatly treated, but this trip poses a lot of questions for his opposition whereas it doesn't for him, and he may well be able to outclass them. Ran a great race behind Medermit in the Haldon but found the trip too far lto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:45 Doncaster Kie 2pt EW - 9/2 (PP) Ranjaan has to be taken on after his debut over hurdles, I don't like short-priced juveniles who've disappointed on debut. He did drift that day in the build up to the race, but he certainly didn't look a two miler. Kie wasn't a good flat horse but has shown immense improvement over hurdles, his form when second to Countrywide Flame and Secret Edge looks good. He's worth chancing for the in-form McCain it what doesn't look a great race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Astracad and Grandouet :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log well done on Grandouet mate lets hope it lines up for the champion now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Nice going BKI :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Thanks, guys, thrilled to bits. Hopefully he lines up for the Champion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log A good day with the banker going in and Astracad getting up on the line. Kie was extremely well backed but couldn't make the frame even with Ranjaan's early exit. Osieau De Nuit ran a great race off his mark. Staked: 183.0 Returned: 242.37 Profit/Loss: +59.37 Going to update all Cheltenham bets later, plus there's the bet on Captain Chris for the KG but I'm not too hopeful on that, Betfair movements aren't fantastic and he was sick apparently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Thanks monte. :) Ante-post Bets RSA Chase Restless Harry 1pt win - 25/1 (WH) Champion Hurdle Grandouet 2pt EW - 14/1 (Lads) Arkle Chase Cue Card 1pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) For Non Stop 0.5pt - 26.0 (Betfair) Ryanair Chase Great Endeavour 2pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) Jewson Novice For Non Stop 1.5pt - 20.0 (Betfair) Champion Chase Sizing Europe 2pt - 14/1 (Ladbrokes - tingle creek combo) Ghizao 2pt - 25/1 Supreme Novice Darlan 1pt - 20/1 (Bet365) King George Captain Chris 2pt - 8.25/1 (Betfair) Grandouet's now generally 5/1 for the CH. I love HF (backed him last year, one of first posts in this thread) but there's a part of me that would rather he didn't turn up, because if he will, he'll win. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Thanks Lars. :ok 2:05 Punch Rubi Light 2pt win - 5/2 (WH) Tranquil Sea 1pt win - 7/2 (Ladbrokes) Rubi Light/Tranquil Sea 0.5pt RFC Rubi Light is worthy of a bet at the price, one of the only chasers in the race you can consider fairly progressive. His third to Albertas Run at the festival is the best form on offer here, and he appeared full of himself when totally in command on reappearance before tipping up at the last. Joncol can be trusted to run a sound race every time, but usually finds a couple better, the Irish Somersby. I think his win lto looks better than it is, because Cooldine suddenly blew up and Joncol just galloped to the line. Tranquil Sea has dismissed Joncol in the past and over 2m4f on this ground, I think he can stay in front of him again. He won on reappearance, briefly looking in trouble but soon coming back onto the bridle to win. He's usually left with something to work on fto, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him come on a lot for his first run. Kempes looks to have completely lost his way since winning the Irish Hennessy and Cooldine has been a constant disappointment since his RSA win. Would take a miracle for Trafford Lad to bounce back, and although looking a fair price at 16s, Roi Du Mee may've been slightly flattered on his last two outtings and will have to improve a lot to mix it in with the front three in the betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Delighted to see you doing so well mate. Keep it up. :) Completely agree with your Ryanair bet and I'll be hopping on board soon too. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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