BKI's Jump Betting Log

[BKI Punter]

Approved by the mods for those wondering. :ok Going to use this thread to record all bets for the festival and see how I do. Made a profit last year, think I actually did well in the competition on here! Firstly I'll post the bets already taken. All bets have been posted in threads on the site. Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly 3pt win - 11/2 (William Hill) Dunguib 2pt win - 20/1 (William Hill) Khyber Kim 1pt EW - 25/1 (Stan James, four places, 1/4) Gold Cup Kauto Star 4pt win - 7/1 (Lads) Long Run 3pt win - 13/2 (William Hill) Glencove Marina 1pt win - 300.00 (Betfair) LOST World Hurdle Cross Kennon 2pts EW - 66/1 (Boyles, 1/4) Pertemps Final Cross Kennon 1pt EW - 25/1 (Bet365) LOST Neptune Novices Endless Intrigue 1pt win - 150.0 (Betfair) Staked: 22pts (-3) Think I can pretty much give up on the Endless Intrigue bet. Glencove Marina ran a fantastic second to Kempes in the Irish Hennessy but sadly died soon after. Cross Kennon is now going for the World Hurdle.

[bowles10]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Good Luck BKI, lets hope this thread will continue past Cheltenham if you wish:ok Quite a few ante post bets on your book, i am still divided about those type of bets, i hit it a few times but havent bothered yet this year (apart from 140.0 on Taranis for the Ryanair which aint running it seems). Will get on a few when they hit NRNB although will lose the odd point off the price!

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets RSA Chase The Giant Bolster 2pts EW - 25/1 (Stan James, NRNB) Think this horse has a touch of class about him. Allotted top weight lto and gamely went on to win after being extremely well backed into 9/2 (available at 12s the night before). The race does not look particularly strong but he conceded weight all round and it was arguably over a trip too short as he always shapes like needing further. Think his class got him through. His chasing debut was impressive, travelled well throughout and despite some blunders, pulled right away from a good hurdler after the last. Seems to absolutely love the Cheltenham hill, that's twice now he's powered up it at the end of a race. Firstly when behind Peddlers Cross in the Neptune. Started at 200/1 and only finished 7l behind in sixth. Came back onto the bridle when running against Time for Rupert and Hell's Bay but fell at the 12th and then obviously won the aforementioned handicap. Another thing I think he'll improve for is better ground. The trainer has only had seven winners this season from sixty runners and when you look at the SP's a lot of them go off at, it's not such a bad strike-rate. Only a six year old too so open to improvement on only his fourth chase start. Is battle-hardened and has festival experience, will not be stopping up the hill.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Cheers Bowles. First proper season following ante-post NH betting, hopefully it pays off. Backed HF months ago but he's still available at the same price with WH! Think I will top up on him shortly though, reckon he might be my 'banker'. I've read previous Cheltenham threads on here from when I wasn't around (saddo!) and saw you once got 85 about Master Minded, that must've been some day. :ok :D Just to add, I do hope to continue past Cheltenham, would like to have a fresh go at the flat season. The staking plan and points being bet won't continue past Cheltenham. After Cheltenham I'll be using two fresh banks regardless of whether I make profit/loss at the festival. One for the flat, one for the jumps and the max bet will be 2pts.

[bowles10]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets

I've read previous Cheltenham threads on here from when I wasn't around (saddo!) and saw you once got 85 about Master Minded' date=' that must've been some day. :ok :D[/quote'] yeah shucks, stop it :clap, joking, was a great day so those hunches sometimes come in

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Jewson Novices' Chase Robinson Collonges 4pt win - 20/1 (William Hill) Gotta take a risk to get the best price. Has been taken out of the Arkle and RSA Chase and his Betfair price is encouraging, has even been matched at 15. Easily won his chasing debut and was cruising upsides Wishful Thinking before coming down at Wincanton earlier in the season. Then won a micky mouse race at long odds-on, just cantered round. Then he went to a very competitive handicap at Cheltenham up against vastly experienced and battle-hardened chasers. You have to bear in mind that this was his fourth run ever over fences and was conceding weight to the likes of Great Endeavour, Calgary Bay and Sunnyhillboy. Only recieving 2lbs from Paddy Power winner Little Josh, too. He was going extremely well before blundering the third last badly and was then considerably eased off, so pay no attention to the beaten distance. This would've taught him a lot too. Given how well he was going upsides Wishful Thinking (who was under pressure), Calgary Bay's proximity in the handicap suggests he might've gone close. The Jewson trip should be ideal and the horse is versatile when it comes to ground. He should have a much better chance at level weights here. Bet365 who are NRNB go 12/1, I think he is a single figures shot on the form he's shown. The main worry is that he'll be going there after a long time out but at the price it's worth chancing.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly 10pt win (3pts already posted, additional 7) - 11/2 (William Hill) If he's pulled out this could come back to bite me in the ass massively as it's not NRNB but I have complete faith in him getting there 100% this year, Willie has mentioned this as his main priority for some time, refusing to even discuss his chances. It's a 10pt win bet in total, my max bet and 'banker' for Cheltenham. I wrote about him earlier in the season when taking the same price and he's done nothing but impress since. Lto they went a strong gallop and he cruised past Solwhit as usual and won well. A lot say he didn't find much off the bridle. Well he put 3 and a half lengths between himself and Solwit after the last on a short run-in. Also, Mullins said he'd only been working averagely during the week due to a cut he sustained. Solwhit is often massively underrated too. This horse has the style and makings of a complete champion. He does everything effortlessly and puts races to bed easily. Watching a video of Istabraq mop up Irish grade ones and they do it in the same fashion, looking a class apart. Only problem is he's yet to travel over to England and race at Cheltenham, but that's the risk you gotta take here. He battles, appears versatile in regards to ground, travels easily and jumps fluently. I have this feeling he's going to go off at 3/1 or less. When all firms go NRNB he won't be 11/2. This might seem the most 'competitive' champion for some time, but looking at the field it's easy to see what'll be said should they fail. Peddlers, Oscar and Dunguib could all need further. Mille Chief lacks experience at the top level. Binocular always runs his race at Cheltenham but is he one to trust? Menorah isn't the most experienced and should he lose will be going chasing. His run lto is also overrated due to the slow pace, he essentially did them for speed and we know Silviniaco Conti isn't a two miler, and Cue Card might be better over further too. Khyber Kim might not the be the force of old and then there's not a lot left. Whatever happens, it'll be a cracker. Hope the best horse wins (HF) ;).

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Triumph Hurdle A Media Luz 4pt win - 10/1 (Stan James - NRNB) I really like this horse. First season following NH racing every day and I've noticed that a lot of Henderson's juveniles get extremely better with every run. Seems to be a fact finding mission on the track during the winter with them. I think this is the case with A Media Luz. She was a very smart flat horse running well behind the likes of Sarafina in France before joining Nicky Henderson. Her NH debut was impressive for me, given the circumstances. She was free to post and subsequently pulled hard for the first minute of the race, which gave her no chance. Geraghty allowed her to stride on but she weakened as you'd expect. Her jumping really caught the eye, extremely quick and fluent over the obstacles. Just 16 days later she went to Newbury where she finished second to current favourite and stable-mate, Grandouet. I don't think this is her true form at all. She was held up quite some way back and you can bet the objective was just to get her to settle and finish her race, which she did. Despite Grandouet not coming off the bridle, she galloped all the way to the line and still put considerable distance between herself and the third placed horse. Another short break and she was at Kempton, up against the well-regarded Brampour. She travelled easily and jumped brilliantly before not getting her front legs high enough and falling at the second last when under a tight reign. She traded at very short odds to win and it's likely that she might not have come off the bridle had she stayed up. She then put in a pleasing display at Huntingdon to easily beat Pantxoa, albeit in reciept of weight. Again, her jumping caught the eye and she chased the strong pace of Two Kisses throughout, taking the lead before two out and going on to win, eased down, by 18 lengths. Now, I'm not sure this Triumph bunch are that inspiring. I think the experienced she's gained will see her at her best here. She's also experienced the course, which she seemed to handle well. Hopefully they'll go off quick so she'll settle, as that's my only worry. I think the price will not be available come the day. I'm not sure if she's still being aimed at the FW or not, but the price is NRNB anyway. I also think she could improve for faster ground, although she acts on soft too.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Apparently a Mr.Taylor has tipped up Robinson Collonges, now best priced 14/1 with Laddies ;).

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Triumph Hurdle Zarkandar 3pt win - 13/2 (Stan James - NRNB) Already backed A Media Luz but Zarkandar still offers value at this price imo. I think the form of his win at Kempton is possibly the best form going into the Triumph. Nicholls said he'll improve loads for the run and it was the same trial Soldatino won before winning at Cheltenham last year so the experience doesn't really put me off, especially as I think it's quite a weak renewal. Showed ability on the flat over longer trips so will have no problem getting every inch of the trip around Cheltenham. Really picked up well to a bit of shoving from Daryl Jacob, got to the lead and fended off Molotof nicely. It was a truly run race so no reason to think Molotof isn't a good horse, it well and truly sorted out the rags in the field. The slightly extended trip in the Triumph and the probability of a truly run race should help him, and there's no reason to think good ground would hinder him.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Champion Chase Somersby 3pts EW - 7/1 (William Hill - NRNB) I firmly believe he's going for the right race here, despite many thinking he should be in the Ryanair. If you watch all of Somersby's races over fences you'll notice he has a tendancy, as the race hots up, to get in too close to a fence and this has, time and time again, cost him the race. He did it when beating Crack Away Jack but was good enough to see him off. In the Arkle, he was travelling easily but made this mistake, which saw him lose several lengths. He still finished better than anything but it was too late. Some might say he's 'outpaced' but I don't agree at all. It looks a technical thing with his jumping rather than lacking pace. In the Supreme he was twice put off by Cousin Vinny running out to the right which lost him his place at a vital stage. It makes it look like he was 'outpaced' but he definitely wasn't. He lost his place several times in the Tingle Creek making a few bad mistakes and lto, when ridden prominently, did it again after jumping soundly throughout. At the same time, Master Minded put in a great jump which took him to the lead. I think his raw ability always sees him place without winning when making mistakes. He needs to be fresh so the break is good. His Cheltenham form is 3-2-3 and I can't see him out of the top three here. He'll be finishing stronger than anything as usual and if he manages to avoid making that costly error he'll be close enough to run on after the last. He'll be fine on any ground whereas Master Minded needs some cut. Think he is the each-way bet of the meeting.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Best of Luck fella. :drums

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Cheers Jimmy. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets RSA Chase Time For Rupert 2pt win - 9/4 (Stan James - NRNB) Wymott - 0.75pt win - 10/1 (Stan James - NRNB) Small savers on these two. I think Time for Rupert's price is about right given his lack of experience over fences, but at the same time I think he's a class act and this field isn't great. Aiteen Thirtythree is a woeful price on what he's done and was distinctly average over hurdles. Jessie's Dream is a bit short on his win in the Drinmore. Wayward Prince was there for the taking at Cheltenham before Chicago Grey fell and I don't think his form entitles him to be so short. Mikael D'Haguenet is too safe and slow at his fences, I think his early season fall has knocked his confidence and might benefit from another season out. Bostons Angel chased home Magnanimity lto but I can't help but think the Irish novices are a weak bunch. I like Master of the Hall but not at Cheltenham. He's a horse that looks good when winning on the bridle like he did lto but he will not get an easy time of it in the RSA and his only credible rival, The Minack, made a bad mistake early on. He stopped like a shot when travelling easy at Cheltenham which isn't encouraging. Quel Esprit has to be one of the most overrated Mullins horses I've seen and Wishfull Thinking is likely to head to the Jewson. Wymott is the other I'm having a saver on. He always travels well but clearly doesn't do much in front. Lto the further they went the better he got and he saw off Bouggler by 10 lengths. Like the way he travels and think he's classy. Gets every yard of the trip too.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Another Jewel 2pts EW - 20/1 (Victor Chandler, four places) Not a race that inspires everyone but this looks a huge price. First ever visit to Cheltenham on good ground saw this horse finish fourth in the Cross Country, less than six lengths behind the winner at 16/1. A nice staying on effort. Then went to Punchestown for a race over four miles and ran a belter again. Only getting 3lbs from L'ami, the winner, he finished third, six lengths behind. Then went on to win 'The World's Longest Race' in France worth 44k on very soft ground and was second in another cross country French race in September. Clearly being aimed at this race at Cheltenham, came back to action in February at Gorwan Park over 2m4f on heavy ground, clearly a trip far too short. Wasn't put in the race and was pulled up. He'll no doubt be ready for this and I like horses that've stayed on dourly up the hill in the closing stages. He'll be running off the same mark as last year (135) providing the top two stay in the race. L'ami is available at 13/2 and given the weight he'll concede to Another Jewel, I'd much prefer the latter. Is 16/1 with most firms and as low as 14s. Currently 18.5 to back on Betfair which is a good sign.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Kim Muir Challenge Cup Ma Yahab 0.75pts EW - 50/1 (Bet365 - NRNB, four places) If the horse takes his chance here I can't see him going off at 50/1. After losing his place during the race last year, he ran on very strongly to take third in the same race behind Ballabrigs. He has now slipped down to a dangerously low handicap mark due to some poor efforts, a mark he hasn't seen for some time. Ran well on the weekend to finish 4th behind Regal Heights and the race at Wincanton has worked out well, with as I mentioned, Regal Heights winning, and Swing Bill put up another good display. He was 6th in the race in 2008 but you have to note that he was running off his highest handicap mark to date. Seems to take his racing well so the recent run doesn't put me off. It's NRNB anyway and a big price for a horse that's placed twice at the track from three attempts.

[bowles10]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets i have backed the horse the last 2 years BKI. It does seem to leave a lot to do round Cheltenham however it does finish well and well worth a place at least. Venetia is keeping her horses running at the moment whilst the stable stays in good form. She always manages a handicap winner at the festival it seems. Art professor of hers must stand a chance in the County on the Friday after its win here lTO.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Good sign that she also had two winners today at Newton Abbot. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Champion Bumper Raise The Beat 3pt win - 16/1 (Ladbrokes, NRNB) Possibly best of the Irish this year. Allure of Illusion is quite frankly a laughable price after his debut win because he's trained by Mullins. I recently read that after Raise the Beat's disappointing debut he was given a year off to strengthen up. That certainly worked as he impressively won fto after a year off the track in good style. He travelled easily and when asked to go on really stuck his head down and motored down the home straight to win going away. Was even more impressive nto, when beating the well backed favourite Dynamic Approach easily. Was cantering all over them turning in and put the race to bed in good style once more. Like the fact that his wins have been on good ground rather than heavy bogs. Has a similar profile that of Zaarito, trained by the same trainer, when he was sent off 3/1 favourite for the bumper but lost out when arguably unlucky behind Cousin Vinny. Definitely the best value looking at the market. Also, forgot to mention, he has that big field experience which is encouraging.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Champion Chase French Opera 2pts EW - 25/1 (Paddy Power - NRNB) Improved a lot last season and at only 8 years old, potential to improve again this season. Introduced late into the season, won nicely in the Game Spirit pulling clear of a useful yardstick in Tchico Polos. Has placed at the last two festivals in the Grand Annual and has never been outside the places at Cheltenham. I reckon he'll go for the Champion over the Grand Annual again. His mark is too high for that, and Henderson's only other Champion hope is Mad Max and I think FR has a much better chance. Won't be 25/1 at the off if he's Henderson's most fancied runner and definitely won't be if Henderson gets off to a good start.

[Goldikova]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Good luck with your bets. I've backed Hurricane Fly myself and i'm just hoping he gets to show his self. The price is short enough, but it's time to throw caution to the wind.

[jockmc]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets yea ive backed him at 6/1 but im irish prob betting with my heart not the head lol

[Goldikova]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets They're all at it mate. If you check out the preview nights, many of them stick to horses from their own back yard. I wouldn't listen to Ruby Walsh either with regards to Overturn and pace. Last season he said he wouldn't set the pace with Celestial Halo. I think Hurricane Fly has the versatility to win with or without pace.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Cheers mate. Yeah, if there's a slow pace, which is unlikely, he'll do them for speed. I think he'll handle the fast pace too, like he did lto. The reason I've gone in at 11/2 is because I'm positive he'll be 3/1 or less at the off. Throwing caution to the wind, as you say. Could be the last time he starts at a price this big.

[Goldikova]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets My back up cavalry is headed by Oscar Whiskey. Although i haven't had what i've wanted to have on him. Only a few 'points'. Have you comrades any others ?

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Dunguib and Khyber Kim I've covered. Khyber was too big at 25/1 as the way the race typically pans out suits him down to a tee, and it's four places. Dunguib was chanced before his late prep, but I was happy with it. 20/1 is a big price and he'll relish a strong pace. I think he's a similar horse to Oscar Whisky tbh.

[Goldikova]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets I don't really see Oscar and Dunguib being similar. Funnily enough though, i think Oscar has more question marks over his jumping than Dunguib does at this moment in time. There's just no telling if Oscar Whiskey will sort out those wee niggly jumps on the day. Some of it is guesswork. Apparently Gerraghty thinks he needs further, which again i'm not 100% sure of because i haven't saw him in enough 2m races. He sure does get further so you'd imagine he'd need a strong pace. Whatever his favourite trip turns out to be, i'm sure he will be a nice horse.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Think they're similar in the fact that they both clearly have a lot of speed but both get 2m4f easily. Obviously ideal for the Champion. Given Oscar's lack of runs and Dunguib's questionable tactics in the Supreme, I reckon they're closely matched on that running. Thing that puts me off Oscar is his overall experience.

[Goldikova]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets

Think they're similar in the fact that they both clearly have a lot of speed but both get 2m4f easily. Obviously ideal for the Champion. Given Oscar's lack of runs and Dunguib's questionable tactics in the Supreme' date=' I reckon they're closely matched on that running. Thing that puts me off Oscar is his overall experience.[/quote'] Oh i dunno. You're going in to territory which i don't know much about, which is the breeding side of things. Dunguib hasn't ran over 20f to my knowledge. Oscar Whisky got that distance easily though, as did Peddlers Cross. Yeah i could understand why people would be put off OW though. He does have question marks over him. I guess that's why he's 12's all the same.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Nothing to do with pedigree mate, just my overall feeling. You're right, Dunguib hasn't won over 2m4f but being a bumper winner and a grade one hurdle winner in heavy ground over 2m2f, I'm pretty sure he'll get it easily. Reckon he'll get three miles+ in time.