BKI's Jump Betting Log

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:00 Leopardstown Mouard > Voler La Vedette 2pt win SFC - 2.26/1 (Bet365) Mourad always needs first run and finished behind VLV last year when HF won, so I'm not bothered about his last race. She probably has too much speed for him over 2m4f anyway. Over 3m I expect him to oustay her and I think she'll finish clear of the rest. This looks one of those easy to predict races so I'm hoping that's the case.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:25 Leopardstown Magen's Star 2pts EW - 4/1 (Boyles) Dunno why she's drifted, but definitely easy to back. I backed her for the Supreme, she looked above average when hacking up in two hurdles before running poorly at the festival. I think this is an average bunch of mares though, and won't take a whole lot of winning so hopefully even despite seasonal debut, she can fulfill the promise shown.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Less said about that the better :D Arkle Chase Sprinter Sacre 20pt win - 5/2 (Ladbrokes) Basically a double max bet, but this horse looks destined for the top and even the current price is worth taking imo. Geraghty and Henderson both hyping it up to the max, and in two chase starts he's looked ridiculous. Even if Kempton wasn't to Peddlers liking, SS beat him as if he was a 130 horse. They aren't chasing any Champion Hurdles, they know he's a chaser and for a novice he's so clever when not on a stride. Exuberant, but not to a ridiculous degree. Absolutely nothing over two miles in the current Arkle market looks good enough to beat him, and I know that might be a ridiculous thing to say, but I believe it. Peddlers might be going over further, but I don't see him as a massive danger anyway. Being a 170 hurdler is one thing, but I don't see him replicating it over fences. Don't really like the way he jumps, he kinda hurdles them. Al Ferof is obviously going to have his fans after the Supreme, but the Supreme absolutely fell into his lap. Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card cut each other's throats turning for home and both fell into a hole, Spirit Son tried going with them and over-exerted himself before the finish leaving Al Ferof to pick up the pieces. Clearly a smart chaser, but even though recent Arkles have been won by more staying types, I don't think he'll match SS for speed and will have too much to do. If he went Jewson, I'd be more confident. Menorah's had a horrible year and I didn't like what I saw in the International. Will probably hack up tomorrow, but I just have a bad feeling about him. Blackstairmountain won a grade one on the weekend, but it was weak and the fav fell. He needs a strong pace which he should get, but doubt very much he's classy enough to win an Arkle. For Non Stop and Cue Card I've already backed, and for some reason I'm a little more optimistic about Cue Card giving a good account of himself, as I think the Arkle will suit him a lot. Don't expect him to beat SS though. If Peddlers is aimed elsewhere, and one of the other main players let themselves down, SS could go off very short. Only one more run before the festival where no one will take him on.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Betting Log I think you're backing value here. Evs on the day, mark my words :)

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Supreme Novice Cinders and Ashes 2pt EW - 20/1 (Lads) Good bumper horse and has made the transition to hurdles easily. Was behind Broadbackbob on debut who has since gone on to win again, he made a really bad mistake that day and might well've won. Thrashed Keys at Aintree and then cantered home a couple of days ago. He does seem to prefer a softer ground but has run well on good, so it's not off putting. I'm not sure what his festival target is but Betfair certainly suggests it'll be this race and I think 20s are huge if he keeps progressing.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Ante-post Bets RSA Chase Restless Harry 1pt win - 25/1 (WH) Champion Hurdle Grandouet 2pt EW - 14/1 (Lads) Arkle Chase Sprinter Sacre 20pt win - 5/2 (Lads) Cue Card 1pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) For Non Stop 0.5pt - 26.0 (Betfair) Ryanair Chase Great Endeavour 2pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) Jewson Novice For Non Stop 1.5pt - 20.0 (Betfair) Champion Chase Sizing Europe 2pt - 14/1 (Ladbrokes - tingle creek combo) Ghizao 2pt - 25/1 Supreme Novice Darlan 1pt - 20/1 (Bet365) Cinders And Ashes 2pt EW - 20/1 (Lads) Very happy with the current festival bets. Ghizao can definitely be written off. Darlan wasn't impressive lto but is still unbeaten and will want a stronger run race. Restless Harry isn't going to win the RSA. On the positive side, Grandouet is second favourite in the CH. Cue Card has been confirmed for the Arkle and won on the weekend with For Non Stop running a good race in second despite blundering, and I hope they go for the Jewson as I think it's tailor made for him.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Been v quiet lately, racing's been dross and the horses I want to get involved with aren't running. Tomorrow doesn't look much better. 2:50 Kempton Domtaline 1pt EW - 14/1 (Lads, 4 places) American Trilogy 1pt EW - 33/1 (PP, 4 places) Going to take the Nicholls pair over the field. Domtaline is very lightly raced and wasn't at all disgraced behind Marsh Warbler and Grandouet lto. Didn't have the pace to beat them over two miles so 2m5f here should suit. Harry Derham claims 7lbs as well, so on ratings the horse is very well in. American Trilogy is switching back to hurdles and although he's probably going the wrong way round, if he can get inside horses it might not matter, and on his best form he's well handicapped too. I don't think there are a lot of hidden improvers here and hoping Nicholls takes another feature race.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:55 Wetherby John Forbes 2pt EW - 10/1 (Boyles) Ellison's fancied horses are winning lately and this one may be supported tomorrow. Back over hurdles after a very encouraging return to chasing lto, hampered at the first and was never really put into the race, but only finished 20l behind the wide margin winner. Is sure to come on for the race and on best form, is well handicapped off 123. 3:20 Kempton Coup Royale 2pt EW - 10/1 (VC) Lots of horses with unattractive form figures here. Even if CR's win a few runs ago was a fluke (visually impressive), it's too hard to ignore. Been pulled up the last twice for some reason. Powell is on instead of Tizzard claiming weight, and on form must have an outstanding chance of beating this lot. He's ran well each time he's been to this track too.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Tizzard will "fluke" Coup Royale and win 1 or 2 races as the season progresses, but how bad is he? This horse should be bolting up off this mark and has been pulled up twice this season. Much better today and mainly because jockey actually knew what he was doing.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log also think he was given too much to do last Sat. I also had a tiny wager on Sports Line over hurdles (seems to have completely gone) and he was given too much to do, as was American Trilogy although that was more understandable. Dunno what happened to Domtaline! VC Chase Forpadydeplasterer 2pt EW - 14/1 (WH, 3 places) Will edit in reasoning.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:10 Ascot - Al ferof 3pt win - 7/2 (WH) 2:05 Ascot - Our Girl Salley 3pt win - 11/4 (Bet365) 3:30 Hay - Take the Breeze 2pt EW - 8/1 (Lads) 12:40 Hay - Cinders and Ashes 1/2 (boyles), 2:15 Naas - Dylan Ross 13/8 (boyles) 4pt win double Back with reasoning.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Missed the first but if you've read my thread you know I'm pretty keen on Cinders and Ashes for the Supreme and I thought the price was fair. Was available at bigger last night but I've not had the time I did a few weeks back to make sure I got the best prices. Hopefully Dylan Ross completes the double, he's shown a very high level of form in novice hurdles and on that he's the one they've got to beat. I thought he'd be evens/odds on so surprised he's available at bigger odds. Might be a doubt over whether he's genuine or not but we'll find out. Different rider today too. Al Ferof is a novice pitched in the deep end but he's always been high class and our two milers aren't a fantastic bunch. Already on Forpady EW at 14s as he's shown high class form over two miles throughout his career and he's more than capable on his day of winning this, even though he struggles to do just that. Al Ferof was probably in front too soon lto, I re-watched it the other day and he actually never looked beat to me. It would've done him good and hopefully he steps forward. Our Girl Salley ran well behind Mikael two starts back, and won nicely lto beating a horse who's gone close to some good novice chasers this season. I think the fav has a bit to find with this horse. If she takes another step-forward and stays the trip she has to have a top chance here. Take the Breeze gets very suitable conditions for once. Will relish the trip and ground and is running off 135 with Derham on his back. Very lenient mark on his best form and there were signs he's finding his best form on his run lto, when getting outpaced and staying on very nicely.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Coral are still 16/1 about Cinders and Ashes for the Supreme, another pt EW. Edit: only just saw cinders and ashes sp, was 1/2 when i last looked!

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Poor show but only myself to blame. I've had little time the last few weeks to put in the amount of work I'd usually do and that's reflected in the results. Very annoying some of the other results too. I backed Tatanen last year and was very close to doing so again today, but didn't. Grove Pride is a horse I had on my list after finishing second to Sydney Paget when not looking comfortable, typically I missed it. Dylan Ross drifted like a barge and wasn't good enough to beat the strong travelling winner ridden by Russell (can never get him right). Al Ferof didn't look comfortable and I even said a while back he's not a two miler, and that I thought Somersby was. Forpady EW finished...well, you can guess. Our Girl Salley was well positioned but lacked any sort of gear to get competitive with the front two. To top it all off, I just caught the end of the Peter Marsh chase in the betting shop (had headphones in) and thought Take the Breeze was leading jumping the last looking at the colours on the screen. :rollin I'm not going to post any selection I feel I've studied 'lazily' to come up with, so very likely they'll be few and far between.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:05 Leopardstown Countrywide Flame 3pt EW - 13/2 (Bet365) I feel his form is right up there if not better than the horses ahead of him in this market and he's a cracking EW bet. He came there to win in testing conditions lto and didn't quite see it out, hopefully it's an easier test tomorrow. The favourite is worth taking on at the price given it's connections would have more to do with it than bare form.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:15 Newbury Zarkandar 5pt EW - 3/1 (Paddy Power, 5 places) Raya Star 2pt EW - 9/1 (Paddy Power, 5 places) Desert Cry 1pt EW - 40/1 (Paddy Power, 5 places) Zarkandar simply has to win, or be a very encouraging placed horse to have any hope of upsetting the big guns in the Champion, and with five places on offer it's very hard to see him out the frame. We all know what he did last year so no need to repeat all that. Triumph horses have franked form to no end, and it's very hard to imagine him not being 10lbs+ well in here, even allowing for unknown fitness. Backed Raya Star when he won lto and thankfully the slow pace that day meant a bunch finish, so hasn't been raised much. Carries a low weight and King is in tremendous form this year. A stronger pace will help and I think he's another who'll be filling the places. Again, Desert Cry is one to relish a strong pace and I think off 143 he's potentially still well in. His price is absolutely massive and if he can settle, there's every chance he'll be strong at the finish.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Sprinter Sacre to win by over 6 lengths - 4pt win - 5/2 (VC) Sprinter Sacre to win by over 9 lengths - 1pt win - 9/2 (Skybet) Sprinter Sacre to win today and Arkle - 5pt win - 3/1 (WH) Could all go horribly wrong but I absolutely love this horse and have already had a big bet on the Arkle. Today I can't see anything troubling him and expect him to win on the bridle.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Staked: 304.0 Returned: 394.89 Profit/Loss: +90.89 Zarkandar and Raya Star return a healthy profit on the Betfair hurdle. Unfortunately Geraghty decided to restrain Sprinter Sacre so much, he could only win by exactly 6. :p Cheltenham bets to follow.

[Aidymac]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Good stuff in the big handicap BKI. And Geraghty could have won by a furlong if he wanted to, so unlucky with the Sacre bet.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Ante-post Bets RSA Chase Restless Harry 1pt win - 25/1 (WH) Champion Hurdle Grandouet 2pt EW - 14/1 (Lads) Arkle Chase Sprinter Sacre 20pt win - 5/2 (Lads) Sprinter Sacre 5pt win - 3/1 (WH, game spirit combo) Cue Card 1pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) For Non Stop 0.5pt - 26.0 (Betfair) Ryanair Chase Great Endeavour 2pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) Jewson Novice For Non Stop 1.5pt - 20.0 (Betfair) Champion Chase Sizing Europe 2pt - 14/1 (Ladbrokes - tingle creek combo) Ghizao 2pt - 25/1 Supreme Novice Darlan 1pt - 20/1 (Bet365) Cinders And Ashes 2pt EW - 20/1 (Lads) Cinders And Ashes 1pt EW - 16/1 (Coral)

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Thanks mate. I actually thought he'd won by about 8 when they went past but ah well. Hopefully he wins the Arkle and lands my biggest ever bet.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:55 Haydock Mr Moonshine 2pt EW - 10/1 (PP, 4 places) Reverts to hurdles after going off too quick behind Grands Crus lto. Only has to contend with a mark of 139, which on form over fences is very lenient. He likes soft ground and a test of stamina which he'll get here. A lot of horses in this race seem to be chasers reverting to hurdles after losing their form, possibly confidence boosters. Mr Moonshine hasn't lost form, the only worry is if he's recovered after a tough race lto.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:45 Wincanton Starluck 2pt EW - 7/1 (Boyles) Wouldn't normally back this horse, but think he has a chance tomorrow. Binocular is only here because Grandouet isn't, and usually in this prep he's massively undercooked. Celestial Halo these days seems a horse that'll outclass inferior horses in handicaps rather than shining in graded races. Starluck runs well fresh and has a lot of speed. Didn't make it as a chaser but was a good hurdler, and this would be his chance to shine if there ever was one.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Albert Bartlett Brindisi Breeze 2.5pt EW - 12/1 (Boyles) Denman like performance! Big price imo probably due to connections.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Ryanair Chase Riverside Theatre 3pt win - 7/1 (Ladbrokes) Back with reasoning!

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Triumph Hurdle Balder Success 1pt win - 34.5 (Betfair) Seriously impressive. Jumped so well, Triumph looks very open.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Just for proof, came into 12 for the win now. :D The 34.5 is avg odds. Now suddenly nothing to back...has King ruled it out?

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Ante-post Bets RSA Chase Restless Harry 1pt win - 25/1 (WH) Champion Hurdle Grandouet 2pt EW - 14/1 (Lads) Arkle Chase Sprinter Sacre 20pt win - 5/2 (Lads) Sprinter Sacre 5pt win - 3/1 (WH, game spirit combo) Cue Card 1pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) For Non Stop 0.5pt - 26.0 (Betfair) Ryanair Chase Great Endeavour 2pt win - 20.0 (Betfair) Riverside Theatre 3pt win - 7/1 (Ladbrokes) Jewson Novice For Non Stop 1.5pt - 20.0 (Betfair) Champion Chase Sizing Europe 2pt - 14/1 (Ladbrokes - tingle creek combo) Ghizao 2pt - 25/1 Supreme Novice Darlan 1pt - 20/1 (Bet365) Cinders And Ashes 2pt EW - 20/1 (Lads) Cinders And Ashes 1pt EW - 16/1 (Coral) Neptune Novices Hurdle Simonsig 4pt win - 8/1 (bet365) Albert Bartlett Brindisi Breeze 2.5pts EW - 12/1 (Boyles) Triumph Hurdle Balder Success 1pt win - 34.5 (Betfair) Riverside Theatre was too big at 7/1 with Ladbrokes after another impressive performance coming back from injury. Medermit is a solid yardstick over that trip. Only proof he's not suited to Cheltenham was the Arkle, but he's just not a two miler. Trip will suit him much better and it's the only race for him imo. Think the principles are weak and too short. Simonsig according to markets will be going for Neptune, and I agree with that and think he's a huge player. The race behind Fingal Bay, Simonsig just got tired in the ground. It was still a mighty performance. Balder Success just destroyed a fair couple of novices and jumped remarkably well. Whether he goes for this race is debatable, but I had to take the prices that remained after the race. He's 8/1 with another firm, and there are no particular stand-outs in this race.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:40 Taunton Sire De Grugy 3pt win - 3.2 (Betfair) Just a medium bet on the Totesport Trophy fourth placed finisher. If he brings that form, from which he's clearly still well handicapped, he'll go close, and I think the price is a little big. Obviously needed his first run this season, drifted like a barge and wasn't really put in the race. Everything else he's done over hurdles has been progressive and he's looked good. He struck the front very early in the Totesport, but stuck on doggedly. Only concern would be the quick reappearance, but that doesn't worry me as the race on the weekend wasn't run at a mad, brutal gallop.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Racing Post Chase Michel Le Bon 3pt win - 8.4 (Betfair) Backed him for the Hennessy and thought he ran a great race, quite surprised that after so long out the handicapper dropped him 2lbs for that effort. Nicholls has apparently always believed he's very good, and the signs were still there for a long way at Newbury. It's not often you can back a well regarded Nicholls' chaser off a mark of 144 at the current prices. Maybe the yard's coughing is factored in, but I'll take my chance.