BKI's Jump Betting Log

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

3:00 Ascot Dancing Rain 1pt EW - 11/2 (Bet365) This doesn't look a brilliant field imo, and Dancing Rain has had a cracking season and has just as much chance as any. Might have 'stolen' the Oaks, but when things didn't go to plan in Ireland (never had run of the race) she still finished only two lengths behind Blue Bunting and rallied well. Then went out and won the German Oaks easily under Fallon. Murtagh's back on board here and if she can get a nice lead, has every chance.

1pt win on Banimpre too (8/1, PaddyP). Backed the horse in France and ran well. Irish Oaks form is very good, and if BB were lining up here she'd be favourite. Has Ascot form too, which is key.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Great day's racing, lovely to see Frankel win so well. Took it up on the bridle and stretched clear, really hope we see him tackle 10f next year. Fame and Glory won well, as did Dancing Rain. Both given great rides from the front. Staked: 248.25 Returned: 262.85 Profit/Loss: +14.6

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

4:50 Folkstone Billion Dollar Kid - 1pt EW - 4/1 (Bet365) Surprised the horse hasn't gone up in the handicap for it's performance lto. Was wide the whole way through and couldn't get it's usual prominent position, got bumped down the home straight yet still came there with a strong challenge but couldn't fend off the front-runner. Has clearly come back to life with the application of both a tongue-tie and blinkers. Should easily be able to gain a prominent position in this field with almost all runners wanting to be held up. Worry would be the drop in trip but I think he's very well handicapped and they've booked Fallon to ride. Would be a win bet but I don't like this early support for the Hannon fav who hasn't had much racing.

Worry as pointed out was drop in trip and it didn't suit. Today he goes up to a mile after a spin over two miles at Huntingdon over hurdles. Loves firm ground and I still think he's very well handicapped off 70. 1pt win at 27/1 and 1pt place at 7.2/1 on Betfair. 5:00 Windsor.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log ^ 4th. :loon 4:10 Newmarket Fury 2pt win - 9/2 (Bet365) Secrecy 3pt win - 2/1 (BlueSquare) Two horse race for me. Fury gets another chance here after disappointing badly on his last two starts and not really building on the impressive start he made to his career as a two year old. Despite finishing, in the way the race panned out, respectively close to Frankel in the 2000 Guineas, he couldn't go on from that and has lost all three starts since and has started favourite in all three. The form with Tazahum and Neebras has worked out well but two slowly run races since have seen him well beaten in moderate company. I'll give him another chance at the price, he's had a break, gets some weight and has Fallon on-board who's ridden him to win twice. Secrecy's form with Penitent is enough to see him win an average race like this and I think he should be a shorter fav. He goes on any ground and does show good form at this time of the year.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 5:20 Newmarket Mizbah 2pts EW - 16/1 (Bet365)

2:40 Yarmouth Mizbah 2pt win - 4/1 (William Hill) Return to the better surface is going to suit the Bin Suroor (has a good strike-rate at the track) runner. This horse is on the upgrade which can't be said for a lot of the opposition, who need to bounce back from poor efforts. Tidal Way has come out and franked the form and overall it has a very solid look about it. They've put Spencer onboard who himself rides particularly well at the track. The Stoute, Prescott and Dunlop runners all look to have been given quite tough marks to run off whereas I feel Mizbah has been given the opposite. Will hopefully take advantage.

Said after that race that I wouldn't have backed him had the ground changed so drastically. It's logged as good to firm, but it was soon changed after and it wasn't good/firm ground they raced on. Massive price here, still well handicapped off 76 imo despite appearing to be yard's third string.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Am on phone and can't find old post, but backed Devdas lot and will do today. Pulled hard but still ran a great race, think the price is big at 15/2 with VC. 2pts EW.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Slight profit last few days with places. Bets for Saturday upcoming! Staked: 263.25 Returned: 278.60 Profit/Loss: +15.35

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:00 Doncaster Enke 2pt win - 6/1 (Ladbrokes) Learn 1pt win - 16/1 (Ladbrokes) Enke could be anything and it's ridiculous that he's 6/1 with Camelot at 6/4. Camelot might be some wonderhorse but you do the talking on the track and an unfranked maiden win doesn't make him a 6/4 shot here. Godolphin horse hasn't put a foot wrong, narrowly losing out to a good horse on debut who franked the form by finishing second in a group three. Won as he liked odds-on next time out and looks a nice prospect. Learn is Camelot's stable-mate but has solid form himself. Finished close to David Livingston on debut, pulled miles clear with one other rival nto (who went close in a group two behind Dragon Pulse) and then won easily in a maiden, which included Akeed Mofeed. 16/1 looks massive.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 4:15 Chepstow The Giant Bolster 1pt EW - 10/1 (Paddy Power) Robinson Collonges 2pt win - 10/1 (Paddy Power) Rebel Rebellion 1pt win - 11/2 (WH) Backed the first two horses throughout last season, and think they're both still very well handicapped. TGB wasn't a great jumper so we'll never know how he would've fared in the RSA or at Aintree. He stays so well so only reason I'm not staking more is the trip today, 2m4f. He gets 3lbs taken off and races off 137, which is so lenient. If they stick to hurdles I'd say he'd be worth a few quid without BB in the World Hurdle. Robinson was a horse I backed at a big price for the festival but he never travelled or jumped and did the same at Aintree. This is probably a confidence booster, but I can't leave him unbacked off 134. That's ridiculous. He will love the trip and if Nicholls has him ready, he'll make a mockery of 134. Rebel Rebellion has hacked up the last twice, and Nicholls horses are running well. He's probably well handicapped off 133 and is worth a saver here.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:30 Doncaster Dreamwriter 2pt win - 6/1 (Ladbrokes) Backed this horse lto after an impressive debut but was given a very odd ride by Hughes who appeared to give up all hope. Didn't switch the horse out wide which he should've, it's probably best to draw a line through it. Stays on a fast 6f which will suit and the Hannon team are still doing the business as always.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:45 Newbury Al Kazeem 2pts EW - 4/1 (Bluesquare) French Navy 1pt win 8/1 (Ladbrokes) With 9 going to post, I think Al Kazeem is an each-way steal with the quarter odds Blue Square offer. Has the best form outta this bunch, and although they haven't been huge fields, hasn't been outside the first two all season. His run behind Green Destiny lto (although GD probably could've won by further) makes him the obvious one to beat and think he should be no more than 3/1. French Navy, although exposed, could pick up a race like this and he's a fair price if returning to form.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:50 Wetherby Chadford 2pts EW - 11/2 (Lads) Awful on the flat but very impressive debut over hurdles, cruising through the race and going clear. Not sure why he's such a big price, probably cause of his flat mark. Hard to see out the frame for me.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:00 Ascot A Media Luz 2pts EW - 8/1 (Ladbrokes) Backed this horse for the Triumph and was confident but put in two poor displays at both Cheltenham and Aintree due to being too headstrong. Hopefully learns to settle and if so, huge chance off a mark of 132. When on song jumps really well and Ascot is bound to suit more than Cheltenham did. Great to see Barry back onboard too.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:45 Wetherby Carlito Brigante 3pts at 4/1 (William Hill) Having a decent bet on this one as I feel the price is far too big. On form he's got to have the best chance over three miles on good ground. I'd back What a Friend, but over hurdles and with Nicholls surprisingly optimistic I can't have him (scoots in now). Think he's being prepped for a bigger day. Carlito Brigante screamed up at the festival off 142, then put in two good displays at Punchestown and Aintree. Paid the price for going with BB and GC at Aintree but proved his worth with a solid display at Punchestown behind Quevega. Probably would've ran better held up longer imo. Big chance here.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:20 Wetherby Nacarat 2pts @ 9/2 (Bet365) Won the race last year and is overpriced. TFR is underpriced probably on World Hurdle form, as his novice chase form doesn't entitle him to be so short here. Went wrong in the RSA so can't really be backed at 9/4 here with the withdrawl of Diamond Harry. Is a genuine grade one performer and should be able to get a very easy lead here. Does have weight to concede but is perfectly capable of doing so given his performances in the last two RP trophies off top weight.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:40 Ascot Razor Royale 1pt EW - 22/1 (Ladbrokes) Went off the boil last year but is very well handicapped and TD's in good form. Usually runs well at this time of the year too. Probably did find it hard after winning the RP trophy off 141, but would be no surprise to see him bounce back this year off a mark in the 130s. If he doesn't win today he will soon imo.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Staked: 293.25 Returned: 299.85 Profit/Loss: +6.6 Razor Royale so close, so gutted with that one. 1.07 IR. Going to close that P+L account now the real jump racing has begun, and start a new one for the jumps season (inc Breeders Cup). Closing that on a profit of 6.6pts, so I'm around +37 since I came back and have been far more selective in the races I take part in. Hopefully this jumps season will be a huge one. Going to lower stakes in terms of points, where I would've had 3pt win will now be 1.5, and so on.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:50 Exeter Ghizao 2pt win - 11/4 (Lads) Zaarito 1pt win - 7/1 (Lads) Captain Chris appears to be something of a spring horse so I'm firmly siding with Ghizao given he recieves weight, and given he beat Captain Chris twice last year, once conceding 10lbs. Nicholls horses are going well, though the worry would be Ghizao needed his first appearance last year. Nicholls had the one-two in this race last time round though which is also a positive. He's being trained for the Champion Chase and I've already had a bit of 25/1 (posted earlier) so I'm hopeful he'll run well. Zaarito has to be a huge danger at the weights, on his day he's a class horse and if guaranteed to put in a clear round, isn't a 7/1 shot. Backed him on his sole appearance last year and wasn't disappointed despite being put in his place by Golden Silver. Trip and ground aren't issues so hopefully he'll run a nice race.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Melbourne Cup Lost in the Moment 0.5 EW - 28/1 (Bet365, 5 places) Worth a little interest off a decent weight back to two miles. Ran Opinion Poll to a head earlier in the season over two miles, and was also competitive over 10f so doesn't lack speed. Modun appears to be first string but you can't say the trip will suit given the way he flattened out in the Ebor. Buick's booked to ride which is a huge positive for me.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:20 Wincanton Alderluck 1pt EW - 11/1 (Skybet) Huge price imo. Well handicapped on hurdle form, and his form with Fruity O'Rooney is good enough to say he's very well in here. Trip is no problem and neither is the ground.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 8:45 Churchill Downs Sea Moon 2pt win - 9/2 (Ladbrokes) Sarafina 1pt win - 5/2 (Bet365) Await the Dawn 0.5pt win - 8/1 (Ladbrokes) Sea Moon deserves another chance after being given a poor ride in the Leger. Was hugely impressive despite having the race run to suit in the Great Voltigeur over this trip, so is worth another try. He's very lightly raced and appears versatile in regards to ground. Sarafina has to be the danger given her high class form with countless group one performers, though I've always thought she's a bit overrated, the opposition here certainly aren't up to a huge amount over this trip. Await the Dawn although badly outpaced at York (and apparently ill afterwards), has to have another chance over 1m4f. Loves good/firm ground, and although winning over Harris Tweed is his only form over this trip, it was soft that day and he made up ground well on it and is value for further, especially considering HT is a front runner. I backed St Nic in the Arc but it's obvious he was flattered from a good draw and having the run of the race where few got into it. Midday always finds one or two better against the colts, and though she's been remarkably consistent, I don't want to back her at 6/1. Not sure about the American horses but I'll stick with the Euros on turf.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log I desert SNA and he wins easily! Paddy Power Gold Cup Noble Alan 2pt win - 20/1 (WH) Mon Parrain 2pt win - 7/2 (WH) The Giant Bolster 1pt win - 12/1 (WH) I think all three are ahead of the handicapper and have great chances. Noble Alan for a fact is way ahead of the handicapper, and I think 20/1 is absolutely massive. He was still on the bridle when unseating lto (backed him in this thread). He's prone to the odd mistake but 20/1 makes up for it. Twice he's been to Cheltenham and performed well, second in a novice hurdle and in with a huge shout in the Vote AP Gold Cup when falling. I think this is his best trip and have been waiting ages for him to have a real go at a big race, so very excited. Mon Parrain suddenly stopped in the Topham, but they went fast and he wasn't far away from that and maybe paid the price. He'll have no worries with the trip and off his weight must be a massive threat. The Giant Bolster I'm saving on. Always been a fan of him, backed him for the RSA, was convinced he'd place. Has a huge chance off 146 and will be staying all day up that hill, main worry is the trip but he travelled very well over hurdles lto which was kind of unexpected, so maybe he has the speed.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:45 Cheltenham Oh Crick 1pt EW - 14/1 (WH) Always needs his first race so I'm not put off by his reappearance behind Tatatiano. Runs off just two lbs higher than his last winning mark, and despite not winning for two years, he's now beginning to drop back to a workable mark, whereas before he was verging on 160, so impossible to place. Now off 141 he has a chance, has won twice at the track and will appreciate a good ground two miles.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:20 Cheltenham Uncle Junior 1.5pts EW - 13/2 (Boylesports) Think Garde needs to be taken on at the price, he's steadily declining and not what he once was. Some of the rivals today have stamina doubts but you can't say that about Uncle Junior, who slogged out a 3m6f handicap under Ruby Walsh back in May (about 20 runners pulled up!), and has continued to stay on in better handicaps over three miles since. With eight runners lined up, it's incredibly hard to see him out the first three for me and think he has a chance to topple the fav.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Greatwood Hurdle A Media Luz 1pt EW - 12/1 (VC) Going to stick with this horse who I've backed a few times thinking she's going on to big things! She was held up lto, settled encouragingly compared to what she usually does, but made a huge move after half way to actually overtake the whole field and head for home. She got tired and blew up but kept on to finish third. Will strip so much fitter for that and I still think she's massively well handicapped.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Nice winner there BKI :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Thanks mate. :ok 4:10 Cheltenham Restless Harry 2pt win - 7/4 (VC) RSA Chase Restless Harry 1pt win - 25/1 (WH) This high-class hurdler makes his chasing debut today and I think 7/4 is a big price. We know he's in top form, he thrashed a good field by 20 lengths in the John Smith's hurdle lto over three and a bit miles on good ground. He's the highest rated hurdler by far, and although it's cliche, you can safely say he should be a better chaser. His visits to Cheltenham have always yielded good results and he's as game as they come. I'm also having a bet on him for the RSA Chase. It's the only conceivable race for him at the festival, he doesn't have the speed for a drop in trip. If he improves for fences he could easily be a leading player. Last two RSA winners were rated in the 140s over hurdles. 25/1 is a big price.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:55 Cheltenham Reve De Sivola 1pt win - 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Fair Along 1pt win - 11/1 (Bet365) Ballyfitz 0.5pt win - 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Reve tries this trip for the first time but it's been a long-time coming, he clearly has huge talent but is often let down by his jumping, but always stays on. Kept on over three miles in top races last year at this track and Aintree off marks of 140. He races off 141 today but I think he's capable of better over a longer trip. Last time out at Chepstow he simply made too many mistakes. That's the negative he has to overcome. Fair Along, a high-class hurdler, is given a chance off 142. Although not matching Restless Harry lto, he beat off Cantlow and What a Friend well and appeared in good heart. He keeps on so this extended trip should be in his favour as well. Ballyfitz is a frustrating one who hasn't won for a long time, but at the weights I think 20/1 is a good price. He's ran well over much longer trips and racing off 129 today definitely has a chance. Again, he's not the best jumper but the price makes up for it.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:10 Cheltenham My Shamwari 1pt EW - 7/1 (Ladbrokes) Lightly raced gelding who's relished stepping up in trip with two handicap wins. Steps up again in trip today so could possibly improve further and carries little weight, so it's worth trying. Has winning Cheltenham experience and goes well on good ground. Hobbs' string do appear in decent nick, so although the horse didn't run well first time out last year, I'd be more hopeful now that he's trained by Hobbs.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:55 Wetherby Wolf Moon 2pt win - 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Narrowly beaten off 125 over hurdles on reappearance and races off 121 here, over three miles and on soft ground, which he likes. Was at one time a very promising hurdler, and although he was eventually exposed, still maintains good ability. Although he has only won once over fences, it was over 3m2f on soft ground, so today's trip is ideal. Pretty sure he can prove to be better than 121 over fences.