BKI's Jump Betting Log

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets RSA Chase Mikael D'Haguenet 1pt win - 10/1 (Boyles) Have to save on him at this price. Travelled all over Jessie's Dream and Realt Dubh at Fairyhouse and was taking the lead when he fell. Lost confidence, but if he's over it, 10/1 is huge. Perfect jockey on board to bring him back and Mullins top guns in form.

[Arcadia]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets hi! i have a question: I want to start betting on horses but have no idea of horse races or horses! and i need some tips for the cheltenham festival this week!!!!! i have registered on racebets.com a few days ago because i heard of some cheltenham specials and a bonus of 20 % for english and irish costumers and a friend told me it would be the right company to start. is that right?or do you know some other websites for horse bets? thanks!

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets

National Hunt Chase Chicago Grey 3pts EW @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, 3 places, 1/4) Relentless staying power is what's needed at Cheltenham and this horse stays, stays and stays some more. Looked the winner before coming to grief behind Wayward Prince earlier in the season, and subsequently stayed on to chase home Time For Rupert over three miles. Before that, won over three miles beating a decent Nicholls novice. Lacks speed and probably doesn't jump well enough for three miles so the four mile trip is going to suit him. Jumped poorly behind Boston's Angel in Ireland but still stayed on to finish fairly close up on vastly different ground, and only a couple of weeks after his effort behind Time for Rupert. You can ignore his Coral Cup run last year as he was running off a very high mark conceding weight to the better handicapped ones. On level weights here I think he has an outstanding chance. His course form excluding the Coral Cup is 1-F-2, and I've already spoken about the fall and it's easily excused. Very adaptable in regards to ground so I don't see the fast ground being a huge issue. If he stays up I think it's very hard to see him out the frame.

I love this game. :)

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets

RSA Chase Mikael D'Haguenet 1pt win - 10/1 (Boyles) Have to save on him at this price. Travelled all over Jessie's Dream and Realt Dubh at Fairyhouse and was taking the lead when he fell. Lost confidence, but if he's over it, 10/1 is huge. Perfect jockey on board to bring him back and Mullins top guns in form.

One more point on Mikael with VC @ 15/2.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Mikael is joy to watch around here. Handles the track so well. Beautiful to watch. I think he should definitely go back to hurdles now and see how good he can really be. A certain Big Bucks did it and has done quite well since :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Bets so far: The Arkle Rock Noir 4pt win - 16/1 (Bet365 - nrnb) Medermit 3pt win - 3/1 (Bet365 - nrnb) Captain Chris to place - 8pts @ 2.92 Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly 10pt win - 11/2 (William Hill) Dunguib 2pt win - 20/1 (William Hill) Khyber Kim 1pt EW - 25/1 (Stan James, four places, 1/4) Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Another Jewel 2pts EW - 20/1 (Victor Chandler, four places) Spinal Research Handicap Chase Razor Royale 1.5pts EW - 33/1 (William Hill) Stan James Supreme Novices Magen's Star 2.5pts EW - 25/1 (Ladbrokes) Champion Chase Somersby 3pts EW - 7/1 (William Hill - NRNB) French Opera 2pts EW - 25/1 (Paddy Power - NRNB) Champion Bumper Raise The Beat 3pt win - 16/1 (Ladbrokes, NRNB) RSA Chase The Giant Bolster 2pts EW - 25/1 (Stan James, NRNB) Time For Rupert 2pt win - 9/4 (Stan James - NRNB) Wymott - 0.75pt win - 10/1 (Stan James - NRNB) Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Jubail 1pt EW - 33/1 (BlueSquare, 4 places, 1/4) National Hunt Chase Chicago Grey 3pts EW @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, 3 places, 1/4) RSA Chase The Giant Bolster to place - 4pts @ 5.8 (Betfair) Mikael D'Hagunet 2pts @ 10/1 & 15/2 (Boyles & VC) Jewson Novices' Chase Robinson Collonges 4pt win - 20/1 (William Hill) Kim Muir Challenge Cup Ma Yahab 0.75pts EW - 50/1 (Bet365 - NRNB, four places) World Hurdle Cross Kennon 2pts EW - 66/1 (Boyles, 1/4) Triumph Hurdle A Media Luz 4pt win - 10/1 (Stan James - NRNB) Zarkandar 3pt win - 13/2 (Stan James - NRNB) Gold Cup Kauto Star 4pt win - 7/1 (Lads) Long Run 3pt win - 13/2 (William Hill) Staked: 97.25 pts (-4 for non-runners) Returned (so far): 116.18 pts (+8.93)

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Jewson is the race I'm most looking forward to tomorrow. Robinson Collonges a solid 6/1 shot everywhere. :hope

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Jewson Novice Chase Robinson Collonges 4pt win @ 20/1 (antepost, reasoning on page one) Noble Prince 3pt win - 5/1 (Skybet) Wishfull Thinking 3pt win - 5/1 (Skybet) Mr Gardner 2pt win - 13/2 (PaddyPower) Backing these three as savers with the main bet on Robinson Collonges. Noble Prince has solid form behind Realt Dubh, Quevega, Luska Lad and Thousand Stars. Arguably unlucky last year and ran a stormer to finish 5th off a mark of 143. Has a wealth of experince and that could be key in this race. Wishfull Thinking was impressive beating a fair field on a mark of 148 lto at the course and a repeat of that effort could be good enough here. Johnson and Hobbs have had a couple of winners already and this could be a well supported fav. Has that extra bit of experience I'm worried Robinson doesn't, but I think RC is a class act. Mr Gardner would've been much closer to Captain Chris and Medermit at Sandown if not for blundering towards the finish and that's good form. He's unexposed and will enjoy conditions, trainer in form. I think it'll be a surprise if the winner is not one of these. Don't really rate Loosen my Load and will probably be overrated on form with Captain Chris when CC was way below what he can do. Mr Thriller won't like the ground. Don't rate Blazing Tempo's form at all and two losses on good ground worry me. Bouggler looks slightly below this level, as does Mr Cracker. Radium isn't up to this level over fences imo and Cootehill needs them all to fall.

[Goldikova]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Good luck with those. I feel as if Loosen my load could run a big race. The trainer has had a couple of wins at the festival and i know they rate this horse. He shouldn't be too far away. It could hit the right note at the right time. I can't see him being out of the places.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Pertemps Final Tarablaze 2pts EW - 25/1 (Ladbrokes) Good run behind Wymott and then a win over Hidden Keel at 4/11, and that horse franked the form well when easily winning a decent novice event earlier in the year. Tarablaze is very lightly raced through injury I presume. Had good novice form with Hell's Bay back in 08 and will stay every yard of today's trip. Good ground isn't a worry either, and the stable are in form. Had a nightmare over fences lto behind the Nicholls horse 1833 but the run would have at least done the horse good in terms of fitness. Runs here off a mark of 138 and is possibly well handicapped being such a lightly raced horse that didn't show his true form lto.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets

Good luck with those. I feel as if Loosen my load could run a big race. The trainer has had a couple of wins at the festival and i know they rate this horse. He shouldn't be too far away. It could hit the right note at the right time. I can't see him being out of the places.

Cheers. I just don't rate him whatsoever really. He made hard work of winning two poor novice events before being outclassed up in grade. Although he does appear to handle good ground, he's beaten nothing on it. He must be so short due to trainer form. So yeah, I wouldn't be too surprised to see him run into the places but I'll be utterly shocked if he turns over the above horses if they stand up!

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Ryanair Chase Roberto Goldback to place - 4pts @ 6/1 (Betfair) Too big imo. Trainer in top form and Roberto Goldback always runs a solid race in good company. Ground might be an issue but the price I'm getting is good, and he was going well behind Captain Cee Bee when brought down last year. Finished very close to J'yvole off a slow pace earlier in the year and finished three lengths ahead of the same horse nto, behind Follow the Plan. Did appear to disappoint lto but clearly didn't run to his true form and with the trainer going well, I'd expect a better showing here. Yet to finish outside the top three over fences when completing too.

[Goldikova]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets

Cheers. I just don't rate him whatsoever really. He made hard work of winning two poor novice events before being outclassed up in grade. Although he does appear to handle good ground' date=' he's beaten nothing on it. He must be so short due to trainer form. So yeah, I wouldn't be too surprised to see him run into the places but I'll be utterly shocked if he turns over the above horses if they stand up![/quote'] I sure can understand your scepticism with regards to the horse. Mr Cracker might also be one to look out for at a big price. He's a good horse and those colours done well yesterday. Good luck.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Good luck mate. It will ride even quicker today, new course and fresh ground. I think Wishful Thinking will hate it, so hopefully Robinson will come to the fore. If he stays on his feet, I think he will go really close. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets The Arkle Rock Noir 4pt win - 16/1 (Bet365 - nrnb) Medermit 3pt win - 3/1 (Bet365 - nrnb) Captain Chris to place - 8pts @ 2.92 Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly 10pt win - 11/2 (William Hill) Dunguib 2pt win - 20/1 (William Hill) Khyber Kim 1pt EW - 25/1 (Stan James, four places, 1/4) Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Another Jewel 2pts EW - 20/1 (Victor Chandler, four places) Spinal Research Handicap Chase Razor Royale 1.5pts EW - 33/1 (William Hill) Stan James Supreme Novices Magen's Star 2.5pts EW - 25/1 (Ladbrokes) Champion Chase Somersby 3pts EW - 7/1 (William Hill - NRNB) French Opera 2pts EW - 25/1 (Paddy Power - NRNB) Champion Bumper Raise The Beat 3pt win - 16/1 (Ladbrokes, NRNB) RSA Chase The Giant Bolster 2pts EW - 25/1 (Stan James, NRNB) Time For Rupert 2pt win - 9/4 (Stan James - NRNB) Wymott - 0.75pt win - 10/1 (Stan James - NRNB) Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Jubail 1pt EW - 33/1 (BlueSquare, 4 places, 1/4) National Hunt Chase Chicago Grey 3pts EW @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, 3 places, 1/4) RSA Chase The Giant Bolster to place - 4pts @ 5.8 (Betfair) Mikael D'Hagunet 2pts @ 10/1 & 15/2 (Boyles & VC) Jewson Novices' Chase Robinson Collonges 4pt win - 20/1 (William Hill) Noble Prince 3pt win - 5/1 (Skybet) Wishfull Thinking 3pt win - 5/1 (Skybet) Mr Gardner 2pt win - 13/2 (PaddyPower) World Hurdle Cross Kennon 2pts EW - 66/1 (Boyles, 1/4) Triumph Hurdle A Media Luz 4pt win - 10/1 (Stan James - NRNB) Zarkandar 3pt win - 13/2 (Stan James - NRNB) Gold Cup Kauto Star 4pt win - 7/1 (Lads) Long Run 3pt win - 13/2 (William Hill) Staked: 111.75 pts (-4 for non-runners. -1.5 for Ma Yahab) Returned (so far): 179.18 pts (+67.43) Words can't describe how much I've enjoyed this festival. Cross Kennon ran an absolute blinder for connections and markedly out-run his price. The highlight had to be watching Kauto and Denman go at it turning for home and then seeing the new superstar of racing power clear. To be there to see that was special. Can't wait to go again next year!

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Great stuff, mate! :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Cheers Milen. Forgot to add the Roberta Goldback bet to the list, but the stakes have been added anyway so nothing changes. Though Hurricane provided most of the profit, I had some close shouts at bigger prices. Jubail almost made the places at 33/1, Tarablaze hit 2/1 in running but didn't get home, Cross Kennon 4th in the World Hurdle at 66/1 (50/1 SP). Didn't get to post it up because I was there but Leo's Lucky Star came third at 25/1. Robinson Collonges was a bitter disappointment, jumping always looked poor and never seemed to travel whatsoever. Still, was a fantastic experience and a great spectacle, can't wait for the next one. Going to start a fresh log from now on for the flat season/end of jump season. Really determined to stick to the better flat stuff rather than the lower class/AW stuff. Reading Fintron's post in the 'start of the flat' thread was practically like reading my own thoughts on the AW. Been watching it closely all through the winter and really don't like the look of a lot of it. Moving on. One thing I'm not so sure on is the staking. Chelt staking was basically based on 'confidence' which I'll most likely continue with. If anyone has any suggestions they'd be well appreciated.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Grand National What a Friend 2pt win @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) This horse has a remarkable record on good ground with three wins out of four attempts, and a career best in the Gold Cup last week. If the rain stays away this year he has to have a huge chance imo. He's possibly the classiest horse to attempt to the race for Nicholls and his record won't put me off backing him. Still lightly raced too, has only been over the bigger obstacles ten times with a pretty impressive record, having only been unplaced three times. Once behind Imperial Commander at Haydock on tacky ground. Once in the RSA Chase where he finished last of all completed horses and clearly didn't give his running and thirdly 11l behind Long Run, who is now rated 184 in the Gold Cup. Daryl Jacob keeps the ride which I like, he got him travelling and jumping well in the Gold Cup. He'll be running off 156 and based on his Gold Cup running he could severely outclass the field. The way he finished in the Gold Cup suggested there's more chance of him getting the trip than stopping like a shot.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:50 Kempton Sophie's Trophy 1pt EW @ 18.00 and 5.80 (Betfair) (16/1 available with Bet365) I wrote up that I thought Sophie's Trophy was well handicapped and backed her at a big price when the meeting was called off due to weather. I duly missed her running in the handicap hurdle at Sandown when second to Mille Chief on heavy ground at 25/1. Interestingly she's worn the tongue tie three times and placed twice, winning one of them. I can forgive her poor run lto (beaten when fell) because it came very quickly after the race at Sandown on heavy ground. Colin Bolger continues on the horse and is the only jockey to have won on her. The ground should be fine, she's put in a few solid performances on good ground without winning. She's won over the trip too. Her record at this time of the year is good, last March she won two novice races on the bounce and the March before that saw her finish second to Oscar Whisky in a bumper. Although no match for him, pulled well clear of the second. Perhaps she improves in the Spring.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

3:50 Kempton Sophie's Trophy 1pt EW @ 18.00 and 5.80 (Betfair) (16/1 available with Bet365) I wrote up that I thought Sophie's Trophy was well handicapped and backed her at a big price when the meeting was called off due to weather. I duly missed her running in the handicap hurdle at Sandown when second to Mille Chief on heavy ground at 25/1. Interestingly she's worn the tongue tie three times and placed twice, winning one of them. I can forgive her poor run lto (beaten when fell) because it came very quickly after the race at Sandown on heavy ground. Colin Bolger continues on the horse and is the only jockey to have won on her. The ground should be fine, she's put in a few solid performances on good ground without winning. She's won over the trip too. Her record at this time of the year is good, last March she won two novice races on the bounce and the March before that saw her finish second to Oscar Whisky in a bumper. Although no match for him, pulled well clear of the second. Perhaps she improves in the Spring.

Make that 1.5pt win @ 20.00 and 1pt place @ 5.8. Only bet of the day for me.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Sophies Trophy ran well, just couldn't concede weight to the well handicapped horses and finished fifth. Looked threatening turning in, will take a look at what price she hit in running. 2:10 Haydock Festival King 2pt win @ 6.00 (Betfair) (9/2 available with Bet365) Festival King nearly saw out top weight over hurdles lto but got pipped near the finish conceding lots of weight to the winner. He comes here over fences and three miles on good ground will suit. Soft ground possibly blunted his finishing kick lto and his best form has been on good. He has improved 10lbs in both spheres this season and conditions are right for him to continue improving. Timmy Murphy stays on board, goes well at Haydock and has won on the horse twice. He's recieving weight here from a few higher in the handicap and with only one other likely front-runner might get a nice time of it up front. He jumps really well whereas the other front-runner (Daldini) isn't great in that department.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 4:25 Haydock Rory Boy 2pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill) Twiston Davies stable haven't been in good form lately but they had a couple out today that peformed well, one winning and another finishing fourth after making a bad mistake so hopefully they're on the way back up. Rory Boy is clearly well handicapped on old form and with Sam TD claiming 3lbs he's running off just 116. He was rated 137 earlier in the season and ran with credit off 134 in a handicap at Cheltenham on good ground. Gets the needed good ground today, trip isn't a problem and Sam has experience on the horse. He won easily back in Oct 09 on good ground over a furlong longer than today's trip off a mark of 115 so effectively 1lb higher today.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log

Grand National What a Friend 2pt win @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) This horse has a remarkable record on good ground with three wins out of four attempts, and a career best in the Gold Cup last week. If the rain stays away this year he has to have a huge chance imo. He's possibly the classiest horse to attempt to the race for Nicholls and his record won't put me off backing him. Still lightly raced too, has only been over the bigger obstacles ten times with a pretty impressive record, having only been unplaced three times. Once behind Imperial Commander at Haydock on tacky ground. Once in the RSA Chase where he finished last of all completed horses and clearly didn't give his running and thirdly 11l behind Long Run, who is now rated 184 in the Gold Cup. Daryl Jacob keeps the ride which I like, he got him travelling and jumping well in the Gold Cup. He'll be running off 156 and based on his Gold Cup running he could severely outclass the field. The way he finished in the Gold Cup suggested there's more chance of him getting the trip than stopping like a shot.

Grand National Tidal Bay 1pt win @ 50.00 and 1pt place @ 11.2 (Betfair) Has been confirmed for the race and I think the price is huge. Ran a decent race in the Gold Cup and finished as well as ever. Johnson said he doesn't 'over-exert himself' which just about sums him up and if he's able to travel up with them and stays the trip he could have a lot left in the tank when others are toiling. I can definitely see him running into a place and think the odds are too big despite the weight he has to carry.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Festival King was a non-runner so stake is returned. Rory Boy was pretty well supported after NTD had an impressive winner earlier in the day but ran woefully. I have a bet lined up for the Sheema Classic on the weekend but I'll wait nearer the time to place it I think.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Giving tomorrow a swerve, poor stuff really and no decent betting opportunities. Continued support for What a Friend is encouraging, now 12/1 best price. Hopefully the rain stays away!

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:50 Newbury Patsy Finnegan 2pt win @ 5.4 (Betfair) Finished runner up on all three novice chase starts but has been thrown into handicap company over fences on a mark of 122. Has defied a mark of 121 over hurdles so has the ability but isn't the most fluent jumper around.I think the price is worth chancing with King in such consistent form. The good ground will suit and the horse is clearly capable of winning over three miles.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 4:00 Sedgefield Sitting Tennant 3pt win @ 3.55 (Betfair) Taking a bit of a risk here as the price could go either way tomorrow, but Sitting Tennant has always had a touch of class and I think the price is quite decent. It doesn't look the best novice chase. Sitting Tennant won a grade two bumper at Aintree in 2009 and went on to injure himself after winning over hurdles for the first time in Nov 2009. He was out until last month when he made his chasing debut over three miles but fell at the sixth fence. He took a very keen hold that day and clearly wasn't enjoying being held up but he still jumped the first five very accurately before ploughing through the sixth. Hopefully he'll have learnt from that and he could get an easy lead today and I'd hope he'll be allowed to go on. Trip and ground aren't concerns and I don't rate the market rival much.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 4:50 Meydan - Sheema Classic (Saturday) Rewilding 3pt win - 5/2 (Bet365) This is a very classy horse and I don't rate a lot of the opposition. Rewilding was third in the Derby when apparently not handling the course and then cruised to an impressive victory in the Voltigeur easily seeing off a solid yardstick in Midas Touch. Connections say he didn't get the trip in the St Leger (sent off evens fav) but we know he gets the 1m4f with ease, appears to handle any going and is good after a break so no prep run doesn't put me off. On ratings he's 1lb lower than Dangerous Midge, his main rival in the market, but I think he was flattered in the Breeders Cup Turf and the race sort of fell into his hands. I just think the majority of the market have to go some to beat an on-song Rewilding. His lay-off is factored into the price and I'm willing to take that.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log Sitting Tennant was a NR so stake returned. 3:25 Newbury Ogee 3pt win - 7/2 (Bet365) Conditions look absolutely ideal for Ogee tomorrow, he's very well handicapped off 134 and with a recent run under his belt he should take all the beating here. The distance he was beat lto doesn't do him any justice, he was hampered by a faller when staying on and I'm certain he would've featured in the race but for that. He handles quick ground and gets the trip no problem.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Betting Log 5:35 Meydan (World Cup) Golden Sword 1pt EW - 14/1 (Skybet) Two runs two wins at the carnival this year and has clearly come back to somewhere near his best since going to De Kock. Does have a bit to find with the principles but has shaped as if he has a lot more to offer. Doesn't have a good draw (14) but will be held up anyway so it shouldn't cause too many problems.