BBOTD - 15th of Feb

[Aidymac]

Hereditary - Folkestone 4:30 This race tomorrow will not take a lot of winning, there is a lot of dead wood in this race. Even the favourite Jordan is a very hard horse to win with so i am taking a chance that this horse will be ripe from a break as it is very well treated if fit tomorrow. Has not run in 484 days which is a slight concern but runs off a very low mark of 92 tomorrow but won off a mark of 106 at Fontwell back in 2007, and has run off marks as high as 125, but it 14 pounds better off than that success in 2007. I like Andrew Thornton as a jockey also. Trip and ground are fine and i think this can get involved in the finish. 0.5 Points e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365) BOG

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 15.50 Southwell Mush Mir - 6/5 >Bet365 1 pt win Mush Mir has taken off on hes form as of late dominating all hes rivals hes been up against and could complete a hatrick of wins here in this race

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 3.20 Southwell Bawaardi looks worth opposing having run on the fibresand twice and on neither occasion really created the impression he handles it although a second last time behind Advertisement could read well in this race. Transonic didnt beat all that much in a course claimer last time out although that was over a lot further than he is used to, he is 3 from 9 over todays CD including winning this race last year. Still above last winning mark by 2lb but confidence should be boosted and if blinkers bring about a respark should be somewhere in the finish. The most interesting runner for me is Sweet Child O'mine for Guest whos horses have been running well recently. Has a very good record fresh and comes into this race fresh and is well suited to Southwell conditions having won twice round here and is 2 from 2 over CD, and won a heavy ground conditions event in autumn. 6lb above last winning handicap mark but could still have more to offer and very useful apprentice takes off a handy 3lb. 1pt win Sweet Child O'Mine 6/1 Bet365

[Mirage]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb Tough little race that one Chris. Like Bawaari and Trans Sonic but neither appeal at the price :\

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb I also picked Hereditary and Mush Mir out for today, but... 1:50 Southwell - Ponting Hasn't been running well of late, his last win was at this track practically a year to the day (14th Jan 2010). He won that after a 12 day absence from the track and today it is 5, although granted he did have previous form. In fact, his only 3 wins have come at Southwell. Connections may really push for the win here and it could be the start of a good day for Micky Fenton, who'll be on his 3rd consecutive ride aboard the 5yo. Win @ sp

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb Going to agree with chris here (sorry, mate !) Sou 3.20 - Sweet Child O' Mine - win at 6/1 BOG, bet365 Comes here off a 3 month break and looks like a 'best fresh' horse, having won on it's racecourse debut and them coming off breaks of 3 months and 2 months Lightly raced with just 13 career runs and has been in the first 3 9 times 2-2 over CD and ran well on it's only other run here to be 2nd to Love Delta over 6 furlongs. There's a couple here from the 'Bad Trainers' thread, Midgley and Carr, that you can probably chuck out. Ruth Carr's horse is interesting - a real classy type that hasn't run for a couple of years. Last time it ran it went off as favourite for a big Class 2 heritage handicap at epsom. It's currently at 22/1 for todays race !........shows the power of 'trainerform' The Lock Master might not run after running at Wolves on Monday, but if he turns up, would have a chance as he goes well here, but he's up 10 lbs for 2 recent wins and looked held off his mark yesterday Trans Sonic still looks too high after running up a sequence last winter Bawaardi - has run poorly here before and might be better at 7 furlongs on soft ground or fibresand, tho' he gets the trip on sounder surfaces. Follow the Flag has a chance - he goes well here but ran a shocker last time at Wolves and maybe needs a break now after a busy campaign I'm happy enough to go with the fresh horse at this stage of the all weather season

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb

Going to agree with chris here (sorry, mate !) Sou 3.20 - Sweet Child O' Mine - win at 6/1 BOG, bet365

Oh b*gger...........it's gone to 5/1 with Bet365 whilst I've been typing...:spank I'll take 11/2 with VC Bet

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 3:50 Southwell - Calculating - 1pt @ 11/2 (WillHill - BOG) Backed this fellow last time out, so I'm not going into too much detail here but I believe he's worth chancing again. Connections now see fit to step him back up in trip to his favoured 2 miles and I expect everything should pan out in his favour. Calculating was 7 lengths off the pace last time out but was undone by the oppositions turn of foot, which he hadn't a hope of matching. He finished behind the progressive Mush Mir, who he re-opposes here today but on 12lb better terms, which I believe is enough to turn around the form when coupled with the more suitable trip. David Probert also takes over from Lee Newnes and that's a positive for sure. The horses C&D record reads 3-1-1, which is obviously very impressive and he's well handicapped to strike, having gained the last of those wins from a 9lb higher mark in August of last year. A repeat of that performance would see him go close here and I think the 11/2 is vastly overstating his chances. He's worth a small/medium bet in the hope that he'll turn around the form with the fav, which he's more than capable of doing. A big run is coming soon from this fellow, so hopefully today's the day. Trainer in good knick too, which only adds to his chances.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 3:00 Folkestone - Asturienne - Back Ran a big race lto when coming 2nd to Kerada. He was beaten 6 lengths and never particularly looked like winning but it was an admirable performance against a rival clearly in a different league to himself. Even more encouraging was the readyness with which he brushed aside 2nd favourite Sway, who was a full 20 lenghts back in 3rd. Admittedly he ran below par, but even so he was thumped by Asturienne. Has disappointed at offd on in the past but this looks a really poor race and a glorious chance for him to get a confidence-boosting win undern his belt 1pt win @ SP

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 4.20 Southwell - Rath Maeve (7/1 Betfred) 1pt Win Running consistently well at this venue since getting smashed up the weights for finishing second in a seller here at 100/1. Handicapper now relented a bit and judged on her second last time out she is feasibly weighted. Is well suited by the fibresand, ridden by a jockey who does well here and yard in good form. Competitive handicap but looks like the value call for me.

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 0.5 e/w pepito collonges 8/1 general,will take boyle sports for the sake of this thread 4.30 folkstone pepito collonges hasnt been out for 694 days were it was beaten fav and not right,pepito collonges was usefull in its time and used to run in class 3 and class 4 races,this is class 5,if anywere near its best form could go close,its also getting backed in so somebody somewere believes this is going to run a good race,the distance is not a problem as it has won over this distance in the past,worth a small e/w bet :hope

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 13:50 Southwell 14 runners for this basement level contest. Although he’ll have to recover from a poor run last time, Archilini is very interesting now switched to the in-form Brian Ellison yard, and the frustrating maiden could possibly play a hand in this race, even from a poor draw. The 6yo has had 13 starts and has not placed in any of them. He’s quite lightly raced and has obviously had problems, as he had two years off at one point, between Aug 2008 and 2010. Previously, he’d only shown little pieces of form after an opening handicap mark of 67, his best efforts coming at 6f or when staying on strongly over 5f. He does however, seemingly enjoy the fibresand surface of Southwell. He’s had his last two starts here. The first, after a 4 month break, was a very decent effort. After being well-backed on course, he looked well beaten before staying on stoutly over today’s CD. He finished 4th in the end, which didn’t look at all possible turning for home. He was entitled to come on for that run, but flopped pretty badly when last seen. Getting a poor start, he was perhaps raced too close to what was a fairly strong pace, and after again being well-backed, folded tamely. He has now switched yards to the very capable Brian Ellison, whose record at Southwell is 22% in the past five seasons. The trainer is in good form and surely that will bring about some improvement in this one, even though he can’t have been with him long. Another source of potential improvement is the first time eyeshield and blinkers. This will help with his starting, as it’s often been sluggish in the past. It should also bring about an improvement in his general attitude. Although he’s only rated 45 and in this race, 1lb out of the handicap, Archilini has definite claims if bouncing back from a poor run last time. I think he might do too, especially if he’s held up. With the draw being against him, it might be his only choice. Barry McHugh and Brian Ellison have a successful record together, with a 31% strike rate and the headgear should coax some improvement of him. At the prices, he’s worth a go. Archilini ; EW @ 12/1 Bet365 (bog)

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 4.40 Newcastle night in Milan 2/1 coral win Backed this last time when the horse was given far too much to do. Better jockey on board this time round and should take all the beating. Probably only one other horse in the race who can trouble the selection but i will take night in Milan to make up for last time. Change of tactic now as I'm going to try and slowly claw my way back into profit

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb At Folkestone the first race is pretty wide open and Renard D'Irlande could be the answer, he unseated in the Backspin race at Bangor which has worked out so well. He was going ok at the time and the stable are in better form now too. Several have come out of that race and run well since and he may just be a promising sort. O Malleys Oscar was fourth over a longer trip on his debut and could improve while Lawney Hill runs a pointer which might get in the shake up. Bet; 330 Folk: Renard D'Irlande 1pt (5/2 Bet365)

[Tull]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb Snakebite - Folkstone 17.00 - .50 ew 16/1 skybet * Torn between this one*and See You There at Newcastle. Based on the odds I'm going to go with Snakebite. * Getting on a bit now and has been off the course for a long time but has an ok record fresh. PU on last three outings so you could say that the regression has set in but they were better races and this is a class 6. If able to recapture some of his old form then very much in with a shout. Soft going a bonus

[BKI Punter]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb Looks like I missed the better prices! 3:20 Southwell Sweet Child O'Mine 1pt win - 7/2 (Bet365 - bog) Clearly appreciates the slower conditions and despite not running since November might not have to improve a great deal to take this race. All best efforts to date have been over a mile which he gets here and he is twice a track winner. 3lbs is taken off by Heffernan and all rivals, for me, have big doubts.

[Darran]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb Dante's Storm 5.00 Folkestone Dante's Storm has been brought through the ranks very steadily and is actually unbeaten in points. The horse has been on my radar for a while now and I could not wait for him to go Hunter Chasing when he did a couple of seasons ago. His first run was at Folkestone when he beat Shillingstone by a very easy one and a half lengths. That horse went on to win a handicap off a mark of 123. Next up he was just beaten at Newbury where he really should have won and was caught on the line after making a couple of mistakes. After that he was off for a season through injury and in that time he moved stables because Phil York (still rides him) admitted that he did not have the facilities to train and he ended up at Alan Hill's yard. He made his reappearance at Detling on January 15th and hacked up by 25L in a time that was nine seconds quicker than Noakarad de Verzee (a very useful yardstick). In a recent stable tour in the Weekender, Hill mentioned that Cheltenham was very much on the agenda and that they call him their Denman because they think so much of him. Crucially his jumping at Delting was very good and hopefully the new trainer has ironed out that little problem, although I should add he has never looked like falling. If he is as good as I and the trainer thinks he is then he should win Folkestone's 5.00 without too much trouble. Through bits of form he has the beating of all of the runners apart from Snakebite (seems to have lost his way badly) and Song Of Songs. The later is trained by Jonjo O'Neill who loves to have runners in Hunter Chases but they always seem to be quirky and the blinkers go on for the first time. He obviously has ability but I'm not sure how much he wants to show it and the trip on soft ground has to be a big question mark as well. In any case, Dante's Storm has to beat him to be a Cheltenham contender and I think he will. I was going to make him a maximum stakes bet but instead I will put a half a point each-way on him at 20/1 for the Foxhunter's at Cheltenham and have four points on him today.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 3.20 Soutwell Not sure what happened to Follow the Flag lto but he has run really well here and his last win was over this distance here albeit form a slightly lower mark. If you ignore his last run then he is much too highly priced here and I am taking him as the value bet here. 1 Pt win 7/1 Ladbrokes

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 3:40 Transact @ Newcastle - Won over course and distance last month beating one of todays horses by nearly four lengths.Was given a 10lb rise in the weights for a race at Sedgefield last week and finished 4th well behind the winner.The return to this track may help and usual jockey Graham Lee is onboard again. 0.5 pt E/W @ 10/1 Bet365

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 2.20 southwell Hermes - made pleasing debut at windsor on flat and sets the form standard on that effort. Johnstons could go well but unex goya who had ew claims was declared a nr this morningm boosting the selections chances. Evs stan james, 1 pt win

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 2.50pm @Southwell 'Army Of Stars' 2/1 (ladbrokes) Horse running well enough, should be thereabouts and has speed plsu decent jockey in what could be a tactical little race. closer to Steed than today's favourite was. Good bet. NAP

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 4.20 Southwell - Governor General 4/1 Bet365 Expected a bit of money for this one to be honest but it hasnt happened. Runs here for Jeremy Noseda with George Baker booked for his only ride on the card. Yard in top form with 7 winners from 17 runners this year and he doesnt send many up this way, 25% strike rate here though. Less miles on the clock than many of these and showed improvement last time out, travelled nicely and stayed on well enough into a never nearer 4th. Looks like the trainer thinks he's need cut with 2 of his career runs being on 'soft' ground and the other 2 on the a.w, sending him to Southwell for the first time today and if taking to the surface should go close in a weak race.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb NIKI ROYAL 2.40 Newcastle. 1 point win. Open to any amount of improvement & shouldn't have any problems with this heavy ground. The standard of the race isn't exactly brilliant, so would only need a little improvement. The unexposed nature makes it difficult to predict, but I see us as having every chance.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb Upham Atom 3.00 Folkestone. 1 point win. Needs to find a bit more on the book, but I think this race will be run to suit and that can be the deciding factor. The trip and ground shouldn't be a problem, and the price is well worth a bet.

[SIG]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 15.00 Folkestone Asturienne ran very well LTO when finishing second to a far better horse. And she is the only runner in this one with any sort of form, there being no other horse in this race who should be bale to mount a challenge. I predict an easy win (and the price reflects that!) Asturienne - 1pt Win - 3/10 @ Bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 3.20 Southwell - 1pt win Sweet Child O'Mine @ 7/2 (VC) Competitive mile handicap, with numerous winners - often over c&d. Sweet Child O'Mine has been off since November, but won after a 4 month absence before when seeing off West End Lad in a heavy ground Nottingham grade 2. Won on debut also, so the break it has had is no concern. Loves it at Southwell - registering 2/2 over c&d, and 2nd at an insufficient trip of 6f. Ran over 10f in November, but these conditions seem to be ideal, and is on a mark set to be exploited. Has won off 77 in the past and today runs off 75 if you include Andrew Heffernan's 3lb claim. Richard Guest's yard are in decent nick - 5 placed horses in the last 8 runs from the stable. Looks to have a massive chance.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb Folkestone 4.30: Champs de Bleu Interesting horse on handicap debut. Stepped up in trip and on softest ground experienced to date the horse may be quite nicely handicapped. Obviously must show a lot of improvement, however don't think that is impossible and from a low starting handicap mark, I think it is worth an each way gamble at current price. 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 1pt win The LockMaster 3.20 Southwell 6/1 Laddies BOG has thrived recntly. The four-year-old is fully effective under these conditions and is expected to land a second C&D success if coming through last nights race unscathed.