CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Huge day for me with six bets, hopefully I can continue with my run. Good luck if you follow. :hope (6/10) M.Cilic to bt. F.Mayer @ 1.50 at Pinnacle The price is not stunning, but I suppose the handicap might be a touch big, but I really fancy Cilic. The tournament is all about the Croats and Cilic gets so much support here that I cannot see him losing against Mayer. Mayer played horribly against Skugor and Stepanek missed a lot of chances in the first set and never recovered. Not much to build on really. (5/10) I.Ljubicic (-2.5) to bt. I.Dodig @ 2.00 at Pinnacle Really expect the higher-ranked Ivan to take this. He loves the courts, he beat Dodig twice and covered the handicap in both clashes. Brands was basically a walk over yesterday by the looks of it, while a lot has been said about the match Dodig played. Two Croats, one should really expect the more famous to win. (4/10) G.Garcia-Lopez (-4.5) to bt. A.Bogomolov @ 1.95 at Pinnacle Hopefully Bogomolov will not repeat his performance from yesterday. But he is much worse than Lacko and playing so many matches will be bad for him if this gets to the third set, that is why I prefer the handicap over the unders this time. 6-4 6-4 loses, but I guess that is what we have to live with. Other than that, the reasoning is pretty obvious - great gap in class. (4/10) S.Devvarman (-2) to bt. R.De Voest @ 1.87 at Pinnacle Devvarman is one of the promising Asian players and he already beat De Voest twice. The handicap is small and I expect him to cover it easily. Both are pretty brainless big-hitters, so expect a lot of short points off the serve, but in the end, Devvarman should have a little bit more quality. The home factor should not be an issue, there were not many supporters early on so far anyway. (4/10) S.Giraldo (+2.5) to bt. J.I.Chela @ 1.93 at Pinnacle I am surprised I can actually get a plus handicap on Giraldo. Chela commented that the conditions are really tough and that he has troubles with adapting to them, while Giraldo said that he did not mind the conditions, since he is used to them. He is the younger and the more fit player, started the season well, so why not continue against Chela? (3/10) Lipsky/Ram to bt. Murray/Peya @ 2.02 at Pinnacle I really wonder why this pair is rated as the underdog. Lipsky and Ram play a lot together and have almost beat the Bryans in the Australian Open, while Murray and Peya is a team that I do not rate very highly at all. I expected something like 1.70 on Lipsky with Ram, so I think this is solid value. Which I need when I bet on doubles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 By the way, kronko, I like that we have someone new here and your bets look decent, but I want to ask you about the way you evaluate your results. There is no shame in admitting defeat. When you state that "[you] have not lost anything,all in all not a bad day" when you went 1-4 yesterday, it seems a bit strange. Maybe you have a special staking system? Nothing personal, just something I had to say in all honesty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 I'm guessing the 7/10 etc he posted were just confidence levels. Must have staked different amounts. Probably best to post stake size though, helps everyone reading too. At least he posted his losses I suppose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 I have no problem with his stakes, but if he clarifies that, it helps. It is nothing personal really, just felt strange reading that. I am all for new opinions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 (4/10) S.Giraldo (+2.5) to bt. J.I.Chela @ 1.93 at Pinnacle I am surprised I can actually get a plus handicap on Giraldo. Chela commented that the conditions are really tough and that he has troubles with adapting to them, while Giraldo said that he did not mind the conditions, since he is used to them. He is the younger and the more fit player, started the season well, so why not continue against Chela? I like this bet, and was going to follow, but it's now down to +2 games - maybe a tad too short. Will need to think about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Seriously, I think there is still value in Giraldo outright. He is the favorite in my book, so I was quite surprised to see him as the underdog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kronko Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 As I said I didn't lost anything because the most money I put is on two of them,My sistem is based on how much I am sure in some bet.I'm sorry if you think otherwise.In the future I will give grades based on how much money to invest on match. For example:1 is 10 €,2 is 20€, 3 is 30€ ...... 10 is 100€.I hope that now you will understand better.:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Ok, I thought you were already doing that. No worries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smegmaniac Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 smeg what makes you think Ljubicic does not like fast surfaces? As far as I know, he made his best results exactly on fast surfaces. Edit: Just to clarify, he won the Indiana Wells last year (beating Djokovic, Nadal, Roddick) and Lyon in 2009. well, I agree to an extent! but his best grand slam performances have been on the clay at the french open ...the highlight being a french open semi-final! And his record on the grass at wimbledon is appalling...which is the quickest surface of all the grand slams! plus he has a poor record indoors considering his class! Grass and indoors represent the fastest courts out there whereas a hard court like indian wells represents a speed somewhere in grass and clay! it's still a fast court but there's a subtle difference! obviously, ljubicic can use his huge big serve to his advantage on fast surfaces...but he doesn't return quite as well and tends to need that extra fraction of a second to line up his big groundstrokes ... he has a pretty long backswing on his forehand in particularly although his backhand is a class shot on any surface! zagreb is playing pretty quick but not as fast as i thought and anyway, i apologise for that tip on the brands handicap against ljubicic! it turned out to be rubbish...ljubs was hitting and seeing the ball quite well...but brands was awful...serving loads of double faults and his net play was atrocious! Ivan will probably still be there or there abouts in zagren coz he is one of the class acts of the field but I think dodig could give him trouble today! anyway, obviously you are a very good tipper and I respect your opinion but feel I should maybe have elaborated on my view points a bit better than I did before! feel free to disagree! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Just took a closer look at the Wimbledon you were looking at, because that seems strange indeed. Perhaps a reason for that were his opponents. From 2005: Melzer, Tursunov (back when he was good), Mathieu, Melzer. Only the last one, Przysiezny, was a huge upset to be honest. Meanwhile, Gasquet retires after a few minutes of play :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homunculus Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Poor Gasquet. Just retired 2 points before Berrer could finish the 1st set. I already knew that Gasquet is poor character, but this poor, it amazes me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Was going to put up Mannarino but big drift so going to leave it. Back injury? Looking at other matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Sport Tennis Event Chela v Giraldo Selection Giraldo Strength 10/10 Date 04/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 2.00 Reasoning Price moved in but still think the even money available pretty much everywhere is worth it. Giraldo has had to fight so far this week but the game yesterday against Andreev was a pretty good win. He's looked good on the hard courts earlier this year and I think he's just generally playing well. Chela has beaten a couple of qualifiers and in general I don't think his level is too high at the moment. Giraldo for me. Sport Tennis Event Ljubicic v Dodig Selection Dodig Strength 10/10 Date 04/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.52 Reasoning I like Dodig, his game is strong and he's playing well. Couple of comfortable wins so far and I think he'll do Ljubicic. Ljubicic sometimes looks really strong, and other times looks to be well past it. One win so far this week looking ok but I'm not convinced yet. Both guys at home not sure who that will favour, think it'll make Dodig extra motivated for the big win. Ljubicic has done really well here, a title and 2 finals, but the past 2 years has lost second round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martinhattrick Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Bellucci (-3) vs. Fognini 6pts 1.909 @pinnacle The defending champion against a player that has started the season very poorly. The brazilian has not played his best tennis yet and still has managed to get here. Fognini was really poor in his last match, giving lots of break point oportunities to a challenger level oponnent Ramos Vinolas. Bellucci´s serve is will get him some free points and IMO he has better groundstrokes than the italian If bellucci starts playing a little bit better, Fognini will stand no chance at all :hope Fingers crossed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rominator Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Sport Tennis Event Chela v Giraldo Selection Giraldo Strength 10/10 Date 04/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price William Hill @ 2.00 Reasoning Price moved in but still think the even money available pretty much everywhere is worth it. Giraldo has had to fight so far this week but the game yesterday against Andreev was a pretty good win. He's looked good on the hard courts earlier this year and I think he's just generally playing well. Chela has beaten a couple of qualifiers and in general I don't think his level is too high at the moment. Giraldo for me. Sport Tennis Event Ljubicic v Dodig Selection Dodig Strength 10/10 Date 04/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.52 Reasoning I like Dodig, his game is strong and he's playing well. Couple of comfortable wins so far and I think he'll do Ljubicic. Ljubicic sometimes looks really strong, and other times looks to be well past it. One win so far this week looking ok but I'm not convinced yet. Both guys at home not sure who that will favour, think it'll make Dodig extra motivated for the big win. Ljubicic has done really well here, a title and 2 finals, but the past 2 years has lost second round. Giraldo @ 1.6 now on betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Giraldo @ 1.6 now on betfair Hopefully someone got on my bet before it was too late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Yeah big move Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 You could lay it off now for a profit even though the match has not started yet. That is always nice. And now I can see why my flat stake betting may be a good move, as I do not really mind Cilic losing now that much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Giraldo 1.31 now. Regretting taking mine at Will Hill as they void on retirements. Dodgy or a Chela injury, guess we find out soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Chela *2-0 and Giraldo 1.46. Anyone playing this in running?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Bizarre match in that Chela-Giraldo encounter, something not right there. Seriously considering flat staking. Think it refines your bets and makes you 100% sure before you hit them. And if there's something I really like, I'll nap it up and maybe put a bit more on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Should have stuck with Mannarino:wall. Impressive display. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Mannarino superb. Completely different player from yesterday. Outright looks a decent price now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Seriously considering flat staking. Think it refines your bets and makes you 100% sure before you hit them. And if there's something I really like, I'll nap it up and maybe put a bit more on it. I back that decision, you should try it for a while at least. I do not really think I have that much difference in confidence between 3/10 and 4/10 really. No difference at all I would say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Dodig +2.5 1.901 Closeeeeeeeeeee GG-Lopez -4.5 1.870 No surprise from Bogomolov again I hope. Lopez is far better then Petzchner. Berrer - Gasquet Over 22.5 1.847 Close match. Dancevic 2.30 Frank should have more in his locker then Adrian. 4 picks I'm confident about. 1 void 2 wins 1 loss.. Not great but at least it's no loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Ljubicic has not even tried to win. Horrible :wall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kronko Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 (6/10) S.Devvarman-(R.De Voest) X K.Anderson-(K.Beck) @ 2.10 WIN (5/10) G.Garcia-Lopez-A.Bogomolov - under 21.5 @ 1.82 WIN (2/10) A.Mannarino-(F.Dancevic) X I.LJubicic-I.Dodig-over 23 @ 3.21 LOSS Almost perfect day,LJubicic is not tried at all to win.Well,one very good day.If anyone followed I congratulate.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe mavis Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Was waiting for the overs price in that one but of course haven't got a Pinny account so still waiting to see what I can get. In the meantime taken one outright, and might take Tipsarevic with the outright later on. Adrian Mannarino to win SA Open- 11/1 Bet365- (2/10- E/W) The young Frenchman has shown some promise at the start of this season, already beating the likes of Clement, Monaco and Harrison, whilst troubling Gasquet and Almagro at stages in their respective matches. Last season he played the majority of his matches on the hard surfaces, and this is indeed where he had his best results, making 4 finals, and even winning 2 of these. Although these were only challenger events, as a youngster, this is extremely impressive and he managed to qualify for the US open main draw, and even managed a first round win against Riba. Many are tipping this guy as the new French superstar and this could be the year where he matures and comes on. If we look at the draw he faces, he's in the same half as Lopez. Schuettler and Anderson, hence the big odds. But in reality, chances are if all goes as expected, he'll play the Spaniard in the quarters, then one of the other two in the semis, with a chance of playing Tipsarevic most probably in the final. If he does indeed play Lopez in the quarters, he will certainly have a chance there. Lopez's form at the back end of last season and the start of this has been poor. Lost to Tomic last week in the Aussie Open and was also beaten by Anderson easily this year. With regards to Anderson and Rainer, Mannarino beat Anderson in their last meeting and would expect him to beat Schuettler these days. Think Adrian will look at his draw and know he can do some damage here. Think it's worth a punt at those odds though. Nice call fishy did see your tip at the start of it - but did not know much about Manni so did not want to risk my hard earnt cash I won on the Oz open on this - wish I had now as he is 1.5 on Betfair now, would probably lay the bet of if I was you to ensure a really healthy profit - good luck whatever you chose to do mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 Nice call fishy did see your tip at the start of it - but did not know much about Manni so did not want to risk my hard earnt cash I won on the Oz open on this - wish I had now as he is 1.5 on Betfair now' date=' would probably lay the bet of if I was you to ensure a really healthy profit - good luck whatever you chose to do mate.[/quote'] Yeah didn't bottle it like I did with Li ;). Got his toughest match so far against big Kev tomorrow though so still looking into that game and deciding what I thinks best. Both were mightily impressive today though. Could lay him at 5.9 on Betfair as you say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 (6/10) M.Cilic to bt. F.Mayer @ 1.50 at Pinnacle:@:@ (5/10) I.Ljubicic (-2.5) to bt. I.Dodig @ 2.00 at Pinnacle:@:@ (4/10) G.Garcia-Lopez (-4.5) to bt. A.Bogomolov @ 1.95 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (4/10) S.Devvarman (-2) to bt. R.De Voest @ 1.87 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (4/10) S.Giraldo (+2.5) to bt. J.I.Chela @ 1.93 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (3/10) Lipsky/Ram to bt. Murray/Peya @ 2.02 at Pinnacle:ok:ok Pretty solid profit with flat staking, although the Ljubicic outright lost. Ah well, that was for some small cash only. Good day with 4-2 then! :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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