Gingertipster Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Ginge, who is doing Newbury next week, Tanya, Tom Symonds and ???? any news? I am coming down for this:ok The others aren't exactly high profile Bowles. Trainers Jonathan De Gilles and Warren Greatrex. With the Chairman Newbury Racecourse chief Mr Higgins (who rides out at Alan King).:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I've heard of a local (to me) Cheltenham Preview. At the George Inn, Vernham Dean, Hampshire. (On the Hampshire / Wiltshire / Berkshire border). 7:30pm Monday 7th March Expected Guests are: Emma Lavelle Andrew Thornton Oliver Sherwood Jonathon Powell Entrance Fee £5 Proceeds to the Injured Jockeys Fund Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Ginge i read a while ago you have 16/1 Cue card for the S.N.H whats your thoughts today ? confindent ? Am on myself just wanted your view fella. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Ginge i read a while ago you have 16/1 Cue card for the S.N.H whats your thoughts today ? confindent ? Am on myself just wanted your view fella. Thanks. Yes Jimmy, backed it immediately after last years bumper. Think Cue Card is still one of the best bets of the Festival. Would be around 6/4 if trained by Nicholls or Henderson /ridden by Walsh or AP. Cue Card's form is (imo) already good enough to win any of the last 10 renewals of this race. Potential to be the best novice we've ever seen. Negatives are difficult to find. May be his high head carriage gives a possibility of not being entirely straightforward, but done nothing wrong on the racecourse yet. Would've liked another run under his belt (for experience), but from what we've seen so far is a fluent jumper. Did take a strong pull last time, but will have a lot of horses to get behind in the Supreme. Proven over further, so we know he will stay a truly run 2 miles. Has an excellent record at Cheltenham / the Festival, goes on good as well as soft ground. And there does not seem an outstanding rival. Spirit Son is interesting, probably the main danger. Won very easily last time. But he hasn't had much racing, so inexperienced. If Cue Card is 100% it is difficult to see him making the neccessary improvement. Sprinter Sacre pulls harder than Cue Card, to such an extent there may be a temperament doubt. Had good bumper form, but not as good as Cue Card's. Recession Proof is a likable individual, won the Tote Gold Trophy under a lightweight. Possibly flattered by racing prominently in a comparitively slowly run race. First four were first four throughout. Though it is true he has improvement still to come. Was constantly on his toes in the parade ring at Newbury, Cheltenham will be a bigger test of the mind as well as body. Of the Irish, Zaidpour's bubble seems to have burst. Hidden Universe jumps right-handed. Al Ferof; won the only race before the electicution at Newbury. Did it well there, but to my eye needs to improve his jumping to win this. Has quite a bit to make up on Cue Card on Champion Bumper form (2nd). Juvenile Hurdler Sam Winner will probably go for the Triumph, but would be an interesting each way bet if coming here instead. Massively impressive on debut, disappointed since. Nicholls does not seem to have a Supreme horse and now has an (apparently) more fancied one for the Triumph. 33/1 NRNB Stan James might be worth a bet if an alternative to the favourite is wanted (if you have an account with them). Cue Card is banker material. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Yes Jimmy, backed it immediately after last years bumper. Think Cue Card is still one of the best bets of the Festival. Would be around 6/4 if trained by Nicholls or Henderson /ridden by Walsh or AP. Cue Card's form is (imo) already good enough to win any of the last 10 renewals of this race. Potential to be the best novice we've ever seen. Negatives are difficult to find. May be his high head carriage gives a possibility of not being entirely straightforward, but done nothing wrong on the racecourse yet. Would've liked another run under his belt (for experience), but from what we've seen so far is a fluent jumper. Did take a strong pull last time, but will have a lot of horses to get behind in the Supreme. Proven over further, so we know he will stay a truly run 2 miles. Has an excellent record at Cheltenham / the Festival, goes on good as well as soft ground. And there does not seem an outstanding rival. Spirit Son is interesting, probably the main danger. Won very easily last time. But he hasn't had much racing, so inexperienced. If Cue Card is 100% it is difficult to see him making the neccessary improvement. Sprinter Sacre pulls harder than Cue Card, to such an extent there may be a temperament doubt. Had good bumper form, but not as good as Cue Card's. Recession Proof is a likable individual, won the Tote Gold Trophy under a lightweight. Possibly flattered by racing prominently in a comparitively slowly run race. First four were first four throughout. Though it is true he has improvement still to come. Was constantly on his toes in the parade ring at Newbury, Cheltenham will be a bigger test of the mind as well as body. Of the Irish, Zaidpour's bubble seems to have burst. Hidden Universe jumps right-handed. Al Ferof; won the only race before the electicution at Newbury. Did it well there, but to my eye needs to improve his jumping to win this. Has quite a bit to make up on Cue Card on Champion Bumper form (2nd). Cue Card is banker material. Yipp, Agree with you 100% Lets hope its the best start we can have. I cant wait :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Timeform said his performance when beating Dunraven Storm would be good enough to win the average renewal which might be true, but the race was exceptionally truly run. What I'd be worried about with Cue Card was if the pace was slow/moderate as he'll need a truly run race to show his best over two miles. I might wait and see if the race is being truly run and go in-play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Can't agree about Spirit Son being the main danger though, think he is woefully priced. You're right in saying Cue Card would be shorter if trained by Nicholls/Henderson, but similarly, Spirit Son would be bigger if trained by someone other than Henderson. 6/1 for what he's achieved on the ground he's done it on is a joke imo. Also like you say, far too inexperienced. Should be 12/1 at least. Gibb River has similarly done nothing wrong but is a massive price. Al Ferof is hard to weigh up as he wasn't ridden prominently when third behind Backspin after a fall, which is typical of Nicholls to nurse them back. Zaidpour is another hard to weigh up imo. Recession Proof should be a tad shorter I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Can't agree about Spirit Son being the main danger though' date=' think he is woefully priced. You're right in saying Cue Card would be shorter if trained by Nicholls/Henderson, but similarly, Spirit Son would be bigger if trained by someone other than Henderson. 6/1 for what he's achieved on the ground he's done it on is a joke imo. Also like you say, far too inexperienced. Should be 12/1 at least. Gibb River has similarly done nothing wrong but is a massive price. Al Ferof is hard to weigh up as he wasn't ridden prominently when third behind Backspin after a fall, which is typical of Nicholls to nurse them back. Zaidpour is another hard to weigh up imo. Recession Proof should be a tad shorter I think.[/quote'] I do have a touch of fear about Al Ferof, he was the only horse in the 2010 bumper who came out the pack and chase home Cue card. As its the 1st race i can still see there being a great pace on and that should do Cue Card nicely, i cant see me watching much of this race ''Due to nerves'' What a start to the Festival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Can't agree about Spirit Son being the main danger though' date=' think he is woefully priced. You're right in saying Cue Card would be shorter if trained by Nicholls/Henderson, but similarly, Spirit Son would be bigger if trained by someone other than Henderson. [b']6/1 for what he's achieved on the ground he's done it on is a joke imo. Also like you say, far too inexperienced. Should be 12/1 at least. Gibb River has similarly done nothing wrong but is a massive price. Al Ferof is hard to weigh up as he wasn't ridden prominently when third behind Backspin after a fall, which is typical of Nicholls to nurse them back. Zaidpour is another hard to weigh up imo. Recession Proof should be a tad shorter I think. 6/1 on what Spirit Son has achieved is indeed short BKI. I'd want double fugures about any other named runner too. On form, Zaidpour and Recession Proof have probably got better form than Spirit Son. However, when looking for something that might be able to beat the best novice seen in years; it is probably best to go for an unexposed horse rather thanr the second best horse (on form so far). Thing about Spirit Son is he "could be anything" (or nothing), could concieveably improve a stone or more on form he's shown so far; which is why I'd make him second fav in my book.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Fair enough. :ok I couldn't possibly make him second favourite though. Recession Proof would be my secound fav with Zaidpour and Al Ferof next, followed by Gibb River and Spirit Son. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldikova Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I do have a touch of fear about Al Ferof' date= he was the only horse in the 2010 bumper who came out the pack and chase home Cue card. As its the 1st race i can still see there being a great pace on and that should do Cue Card nicely, i cant see me watching much of this race ''Due to nerves'' What a start to the Festival. I'm with you on that one. On certain occasions i go in to another room and try to time it so i'm catching the closing stages of the race. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Willie Mullins has a lot of quotes regarding his horses at chelt festival very positive regarding Hurricane Flys chances and this is what he has to say regarding Zaidpour in the Novices. on his website www.williemullins.com in the Horses section Zaidpour 5 b g Red Ransom – Zainta He was bred by the Aga Khan and as you would expect has a very strong pedigree. From day one he looked a smart prospect and won his maiden hurdle at Punchestown in good style from 21 rivals. He followed up in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, again with the minimum of fuss. However he has been beaten twice since, but I would suggest readers put a line through his penultimate run – the less said the better. Last time he did disappoint me and it could be that that is as good as he is, but I don’t think so. He didn’t show that much speed on that occasion and I know judged on his Flat form he is much faster than that, so it couldn’t have been his true running. It could also be that it was left-handed and he prefers going right-handed, which if that is the case doesn’t bode well for Cheltenham. He is very likely to go to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which is shaping up into one of the best races of the week. I know he has been beaten on his last two runs, but I feel there could be reasons for both and I still have a lot of faith in him and rate him possibly my best chance of the week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion "Very strong pedigree", true. But that includes being a half brother to Zaynar. It's possible there might be a bit of temperament in Zaidpour's make up. Trainers are notoriously poor tipsters. If Mullins thinks Zaidpour is his best chance of the week, then he's either looking through rose coloured specs; or Quevega has had an injury. :unsure I'll have Quevega against Zaidpour in a match bet. Whoever finishes in the best posi wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Just come back from a Cheltenham Preview. Most interesting piece of news is that Paul Nicholls apparently is keen on Denman for the GC. Been working really well since his wind op. Taken some 13/2, although IC would be my best result. And from watching PN and RW on TV they both seem to think "Kauto Star has lost some of his speed". I take from that KS is not showing them as much at home, therefore probably on the downgrade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Just come back from a Cheltenham Preview. Most interesting piece of news is that Paul Nicholls apparently is keen on Denman for the GC. Been working really well since his wind op. Taken some 13/2, although IC would be my best result. And from watching PN and RW on TV they both seem to think "Kauto Star has lost some of his speed". I take from that KS is not showing them as much at home, therefore probably on the downgrade. my dad backed it a couple of weeks back on that advice but Nicholls has been known to understate the obvious at times if it runs to its hennessey form, no reason why it wont go close i am looking no further than IC at present Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I have been looking at the Gold Cup and it is one hell of a race - Everyone says its not one of the best - but seriously how could they say that it looks a brilliant Gold Cup - what I think they mean is it is a bit of a minefield trying to find a horse that stands out and looks like a definite winner a ryanair winner,an irish hennessy gold cup winner, 3 Gold Cup winners and a 2 King George Winners .In my book thats a brilliant field of Runners and I think its looking like a classic - over the last few years it has mostly been dominated at most by two horses that everyone fancied this year there seems to be more in with a genuine chance - 9 horses OR Rated over 162 - all the stats scream Kauto and Denman at 11yo & even Imperial Commander 10yo maybe to old and Long Run 6yo is to young but stats are there to be broken Denman and Kauto and Imperial are class horses been there wore the T-SHIRT I can see 2 of them making the frame (Denman & Imperial) "long Run is to young and is crap at the Cheltenham" . So 3rd in the Paddy Power and 3rd in the RSA is crap !!! is it ? 1st in the King George in quite an authorative manner at a pace that equalled Kauto's best run the year before.I think Long Run stands a great chance he has been over chases 9 times in his career (a window that seems to work regarding Gold Cup - Imperial was the same last year)he has the relevant experience - yes he might get caught out by the undulations of the track but Henderson states his jumping has got better that was what the issue was - its looking likely that it might rain on Friday looking at the forcast the breeder of Long Run said he will win if it is on the soft side.He might not win as he is 6 but hell neither will Kauto Denman or Imperial - What does that mean then scrap all 4 and look elsewhere - so a new boy comes in and there you go lads a Classic waiting to happen and a pinsticker horse comes in at a great e/w price. Come on Friday :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion If Paul Nicholls has 2 chances in a race, the one that runs worse is the one he fancies more. So you can bank on Kauto beating Denman. And probably Neptune Collonges will beat them both. Also, don't listen to Mullins. Zaidpour is a cracking horse, but he'd be a World Hurdle horse in time. They are going Supreme only because So Young has a massive chance in the Neptune. I think Zaidpour will struggle for speed in the Supreme. Would have won a Triumph last year (or gone close), but the Supreme is different type of race. You need Menorah, Go Native type of horses - typical speedsters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion As far as Long Run is concerned, his age is more a positive than negative. Not many 6 year olds have run in the Gold Cup. Doubt if any of them have had as much fencing experience as Long Run. As a 6 year old he's probably capable of more improvement. However... Cheltenham record is (comparitively) poor, compared to his best form. Made mistakes in both starts at Prestbury Park and did not settle that well in the RSA. Kempton is a totally different course. Ground could be an excuse in the RSA, but good-soft in the Paddy Power. By one of the best stamina influences in the stud book (Cadoudal). And half brother to Liberthine, who finished 5th in the National. So definately bred to get the trip. But the way he runs, makes him no certainty to stay. Much more settled at Kempton over 3 miles on a flat track, has now got to go even slower and over further. I think the ear plugs are significant in calming him down; although preliminaries at Cheltenham will be a sterner test for his nerves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Cue Card is banker material. However, An alternative / additional bet could be Magen's Star. She has won her two races by a total of 31 lengths. Gets 7lbs sex allowance. Could be a Barizan type ride, gets out in front and maintains a gallop. It is probable very soft ground is important to her, but at 33/1 NRNB is worth taking a chance with. You could probably back to lay, as she will be at / near the front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I have re-looked at the Gold cup and the only one that keeps jumping at me it has to be the favourite IMPERIAL COMMANDER - he has only ran 12 Chase races and loves Cheltenham - runs well after long absences and also his pace in his only race this season where he was not fired up was good.I know that the vibes have been a bit shakey but then again its the same for most of the horses - They said the other day that they are much happier with his last spin so I am going to say that he is your most likely winner - too many question marks about Long Run at Cheltenham (ginger I reluctantly agree with you )and only a 6yo if he runs his race - can see him being placed with a squeak at winning.I know you have to go back to 1998 regarding Imperial Commanders age 10yo for a winner but he is lightly raced and definetly has brilliant form at Cheltenham.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Somersby could go for the Ryanair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League1_punter Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I know you dont want too much general chit chat in here clogging this thread up so feel free to delete later after somebody has replied, just didnt want to open a new thred for a small question. Has the racing post done a pull-out for Cheltenham / are they planning on doing one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion they have been doing one a week on the build up with review, following TFR etc. This has been going for about a month or so. Not sure if they are going to do a massive one on saturday or something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League1_punter Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion they have been doing one a week on the build up with review' date=' following TFR etc. This has been going for about a month or so. Not sure if they are going to do a massive one on saturday or something[/quote'] Cheers for the info :ok. Looks like i may have missed out. Ah well, still got you guys on here to help me make some money :D Mods feel free to clear these posts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion There is one in tomorrows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Racing Post say tht Agean Dawn is out of the Coral Cup next Wednesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Racing Post say tht Agean Dawn is out of the Coral Cup next Wednesday He misses the Imperial Cup and is doubtful for the Coral Cup. I remember a non runner last year that went on to win the Champion Hurdle though :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Me too - I was on it at a shit price. Many bookies have taken it out of the betting for next week. I'd be surprised to see it run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Me too - I was on it at a shit price. Many bookies have taken it out of the betting for next week. I'd be surprised to see it run They do so, cos they shorten all the rest that way. If he comes back, they'd have no problem opening a new market again with most of the rivals a bigger price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion You could be right - either way, I definitely wouldn't back it on the back of this news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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