Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion

[bowles10]

A bit late this year putting this up but all discussion and ante post bets in here for the Cheltenham Festival please Please put some reasoning when quoting ante post bets with the bookie offering the price. :ok The countdown has begun! PL will run a Cheltenham thread as usual in March. Kauto, Denman, Imperial commander, master minded all touting again for wins at the festival or will there be newcomers taking over??

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 I have already backed these Cue Card 10s for Supremem Novices - I was really impressed with his bumper win and with Tizzard saying he wanted to run him 3/4 times before Christmas I though if he wins well he will at least be a trade. Of course he has been excellent but my obvious concern is which race he will go to. I think they would be stupid this year to not go for the Supreme Novice. Joncol EW 25/1 for the Gold Cup - I am of the opinion this will not be KS or Denmans year, hence leaving them out of the 10 to follow as well. Imperial Commander looked good in the Betfair yesterday but at the prices I like Joncol who is a massive horse and should have a live chance. His last run, and first run this seaosn does not concern me, as it was an inadequate trip. Secant Star - 50/1 Arkle and 250/1 Champion Hurdle - a few on here mentioned him before he first came out last year and ever since I have been a massive fan. Had a lot on him in the Triumph last Chelt but he was withdrawn the morning of the race which was a shame. Apparently the Arkle is the target and Mullins in his stable tour confirmed he would probably go chasing. He is entered into a chase at Naas on Weds so we will find out more then. I took a saver on the CH just in case, small stakes at a large price. Peddlers Cross - 14/1 EW Champion Hurdle - I understand this price again is high due to not knowing which race he will go to but should be running in the Fighting Fifth and is 7/2 for that and I hope he wins it well and they target the CH after. He looked the part last year winnig the Neptune and a gr2 at Aintree, still unbeaten. His task for the CH is tougher against some smart sorts but if he improves still he will take all the beating.

[ganjaman]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 THE SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE--ZAIDPOUR this half brother to zaynar took to hurdling like a duck to water and looked like a novice going places,i believe he will be a major threat to cue-card on the day he was classy enought to lock horns with horses like byword on the flat,he is currently 12/1 with most bookmakers and with improvement likely after the way he won 1st time out im having a few quid e/way

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 I'm holding an ante-post slip for Kauto Star at 13/2 for the Gold Cup but it actually belongs to Mileni for winning the 100/1 comp. I hung back before placing the same bet so have ended up with 5/1 but I really fancy him to reverse form with Imperial Commander as well. Kauto is the classiest chaser in the division but he never travelled with the same fluency in the race last year and looked below par, blundering on the first circuit in face before falling 4 out. Imperial Commander was well placed to pick up the pieces and pick off Carruthers and Denman in the closing stages but I feel he was flattered by the result - few got into it from off the pace and Mon Mome, who to be fair is a Grade 3 horse, took third, albeit a distant third, beaten 23 lengths officially. Kauto has bounced back from a setback before - he fell in the Betfair Chase in 2008 before hacking up in the King George and landing the Gold Cup that same year. Last season he started with a controversial victory over Imperial Commander in the same race but unlike that rival he is one that peaks later on in the season. I Don't think if Kauto had run to his best last year, that Imperial Commander would have beaten him, despite their close finish at Haydock. Imperial Commander is improving of that there is no doubt and he arguably produces his best form at Cheltenham. You could say that Kauto is actually better at Kempton than Cheltenham, given his domination of the King George, so providing Imperial Commander is fit to make it to Kempton (picked up a slight cut to his fore leg on Saturday but expected to be fit) I would expect Kauto to win, and thus expect his price to shorten for the Gold Cup. Whether he can then beat Imperial Commander on his favourite stomping ground in March ultimately decides the bet but I don't feel Kauto will be going off at 5/1 on the big day, even without Ruby. Kauto is probably going to head to Cheltenham straight after the King George and given I think he will win the King George, it follows that the price should be taken before that day. Kauto Star to win the 2011 Gold Cup 5/1, Paddypower.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham 2011

THE SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE--ZAIDPOUR this half brother to zaynar took to hurdling like a duck to water and looked like a novice going places,i believe he will be a major threat to cue-card on the day he was classy enought to lock horns with horses like byword on the flat,he is currently 12/1 with most bookmakers and with improvement likely after the way he won 1st time out im having a few quid e/way

My initial fancy for the Triumph before his setback last year. I think he will be a stayer though. Either Neptune or Albert Bartlett.

[Leedsmycrispsalone]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 The Rat please can you give reasons why you think Cue Card shouldn't run in the Champion hurdle. I am vey interested to hear other peoples opinion i also believe we should run him in the supreme. But i dont believe it's as Stupid as you put it. There has been so much excitement and anticipation for 25 years they have had horses and been through a fair share of trainers. so you can forgive them for getting a bit carried away with this horses potential. It makes a change for a small owner not to sell when the first big money offer comes in.

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 Hi mate I am excited as everyone else. I just think so early in his career he should take the SN when he can. The Champion Hurdle can be got next year, then who knows. I really love the horse, he is my work PC background! It is great to see "smaller" connections with such an exciting prospect and it is also a breath of fresh air in racing.

[Leedsmycrispsalone]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 The rat Sorry if you took what i said as a rant. If people realised the rollercoaster of emotions with what come with race horse ownership. My wifes grandparents own this horse and for them it has put the sparkle back in to racing for them as only 2 years ago they were getting very disillusioned with bad Trainers and the Big money owners buying horses like sweets. Sorry for going on Cue Card is all this family talk about.

[ganjaman]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 good luck with cue-card mate

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 I didn't take it like that at all. I heard they had turned down some big offer for him? It must be tough to make big decisions on which race to go for, but a good headache!

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 It all depends on how good the horse is. If I owned him, I'd have taken the Champion route. He has beaten a 150 rated horse on the bridle. Horses decline fast. For me Cue Card can easily be the best novice since Istabraq. The novice route is for average novices. Cue Card is exceptional. Hurricane Fly would have run in the Champion two years ago if he hadn't injured himself. They were almost 90% decided on that option. You see what happens after. He can barely run once a season with all those setbacks. Missed last year. Another setback this year. Might not go to the festival ever.

[Leedsmycrispsalone]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 Thank you. I have been a serial lurker on this website for years only posting in comps and football here and there. I have wanted to post some thoughts of mine on our horses but dont want to come across big headed or people think I might be lying. There are some great tippers on this site who are able to use their better knowledge and better experience than me but if I do get information regarding any of the Tizzards horses i will post. (That does not mean every runner ) mileni4uk i bow to your knowledge and cheers for your opinion

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cheltenham 2011

The rat Sorry if you took what i said as a rant. If people realised the rollercoaster of emotions with what come with race horse ownership. My wifes grandparents own this horse and for them it has put the sparkle back in to racing for them as only 2 years ago they were getting very disillusioned with bad Trainers and the Big money owners buying horses like sweets. Sorry for going on Cue Card is all this family talk about.

Hi i saw the grand-Parents you are talking about on the TV they were both were proud and no doubt very exited. I do hope they go for the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the champ hurdle just seems a touch soon for Cue Card and i have heard Joe say they are happy just now with Cue Cards trip of 2m, he is a lovely horse and i wish them all the very best in the world with him, i have talked about the horse all summer with friend's etc and i have some anti post at 10's and 8's no doubt whatever they go for am sure they will give the Grand-parents a special time to very much remember.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham 2011

Thank you. I have been a serial lurker on this website for years only posting in comps and football here and there. I have wanted to post some thoughts of mine on our horses but dont want to come across big headed or people think I might be lying. There are some great tippers on this site who are able to use their better knowledge and better experience than me but if I do get information regarding any of the Tizzards horses i will post. (That does not mean every runner ) mileni4uk i bow to your knowledge and cheers for your opinion

All the best to all connected with this horse. I really really hope he fulfils his potential and he wins the Champion Hurdle. This year or next. If you want, you can write me an email (address is on my profile page). I wanna tell you a thing or two I can't post on the open forum. Oh, and welcome to the boards :ok

[who?me?]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 I have 3 ante-post bets for Cheltenham. Imperial Commander - 5/1 for Gold Cup. I have followed IC sice he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup 2 years ago. I know he doesn't run well at Kempton (right handed track etc etc) and I don't tend to bet on him there. He does run well however at Cheltenham and Haydock. I had a good ante-post price on him for this year's Gold Cup and was very happy watching him running up that hill followed by Denman and think he can do it again. Time for Rupert - 7/1 for RSA Chase. TFR is another horse I have followed for some time. He also tends to run well at Cheltenham - had a great race when 2nd to Big Buck's in World Hurdle last March. He's had a successful start to his chasing career and I think stands a good chance. Cue Card - 5/2 for Supreme Novices. Bit slow off the mark with this bet so not as good a price as some of you have got. I will no doubt put something on Little Josh - as already mentioned I tend to follow the Paddy Power Gold Cup winners and won quite a lot on Exotic Dancer over the years. Although not a Cheltenham bet, I thought I'd mention my other ante-post bet which is Hello Bud - 33/1 e/w for Grand National. The way he jumped those National fences today makes me think the old boy could do quite well come next April.

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I think his age and the extra distance in the national rule out Hello Bud for me. He was excellent today though

[who?me?]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I do accept your point about his age - no horses his age have won the National but he was 5th this year, so a place might be on the cards.

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion He certainly jumps well enough as he proved today and the way he battled on was amazing really, especially once he was headed. Think he was still available for 50s after and he could run a place but I just think 4m is too far. Good luck though mate

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion All these on my thread. ANTE-POST BOOK Supreme Novices Hurdle 16 points @ 16/1 Cue Card (Best Current Price 3/1 in one place Ladbrokes) Lay 18 points @ 2.8/1 Cue Card (effectively losing 50.4 from my potential winning profit of 256 points) Took the 16/1 immediately after the Champion Bumper. If Cue Card were trained by a "top trainer" or Irish horse, he'd have been half that. Just as, if not more impressive than Dunguib there. Massively impressive and jumped like an experienced horse in his two wins over hurdles so far. Already shown form good enough to win an average Supreme Hurdle. We know he loves Cheltenham. Even 3/1 now with Ladbrokes looks too big, if it was not for the quite reasonable prospect of him being too good for the race; running in the Champion instead. Hence why I've laid it back. Champion Hurdle 30 points @ 5/1 Binocular (3/1) Took the 5/1 immediately after last years race. Put up as good a performance there as anything since Istabraq. Well above average in my opinion. Hurricane Fly has potential but is so fragile, is no ante-post proposition. It looks a good year for 2 mile hurdlers, but they'll have to be something special to beat an in form Binocular, who himself probably has a bit more improvement in him. Was not a sound horse last season, but that seems behind him. Think the adverse publicity connections had after the race has allowed Binocular to be a bigger price than he should be. 3/1 still looks good to me. RSA Chase 27 points @ 8/1 Time For Rupert (7/1) Jumped really well to win his first chase over an inadequate trip at Cheltenham, a place he loves. 3 miles + will suit much better. The best rated hurdler to go chasing. If he were trained by Nicholls/Henderson and ridden by AP/RW he'd be much shorter. Webber and Kennedy are vastly under-rated. Unlike many at the top of the betting, we know by his form 3m+ will be his trip. Other potential rivals have the option this year of going for the new Conditions 2m4f race, including the fragile Mikael D'Haguenet. Think bookmakers priced this race up as they have other years, not taking in to account the best horses will avoid each other come March. Champion Chase 30 points @ 6/1 Master Minded (3/1) The breathing operation Master Minded had over winter was the catalyst to my bet here. Nicholls has rejuvenated many horses by this method. Impressive reappearance at Ascot over the weekend has seen Master Minded half in price. Although holes can be found in the form, jumped and travelled with his old enthusiasm. Hope he does not race too often this term, as this op' often has a limited time span of usefulness. Encouraging connections did not think he needed the noseband to drop his head. A lot can still go wrong, don't know if I'd take the 3/1 now. Triumph Hurdle 27 points @ 8/1 Sam Winner (11/2) Absolutely amazed he was 8/1 immediately after his debut. Travelled well and won a really good juvenile hurdle on the bridle. A big brute of a horse, even as a 3 year old. French breds usually mature quicker than British and Irish breds. Has more scope for progression and does not need to improve much (if at all) to win an average Triumph. Still tremendous value at 11/2. Cheltenham Gold Cup 25 points @ 11/2 Imperial Commander (9/2) 13 points @ 5/1 Imperial Commander Imperial Commander was not that impressive at the finish of the Betfair. But the pace of that race is important. Rounding the turn for home the two leaders were travelling much the best. Yet the other pace setter Nacarat faded badly, where as the hold up horses finished well. This suggests Brennen went for home too early and value for much more than distances indicate. We know Imperial Commander goes really well at Cheltenham. Kauto Star is an obvious danger along with Denman. However, both are getting old and will be 11 year olds come March. Most of that age are on the downgrade. Imperial Commander is only a year younger, but has had much less racing. Kauto Star's win at Down Royal proves nothing, the form is nowhere near his best. Denman is very genuine when racing, hope he wins a third Hennessey. But it would not be a big surprise to see him plant himself at the start. Been awkward before. Long Run needs professional help in the saddle to improve his jumping, doubtful stayer too. Stable companion Punchestowns would be interesting if fully fit, but Imperial Commander is an above average Gold Cup winner.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Thank you. I have been a serial lurker on this website for years only posting in comps and football here and there. I have wanted to post some thoughts of mine on our horses but dont want to come across big headed or people think I might be lying. There are some great tippers on this site who are able to use their better knowledge and better experience than me but if I do get information regarding any of the Tizzards horses i will post. (That does not mean every runner ) mileni4uk i bow to your knowledge and cheers for your opinion.. Isn't this what makes this forum so great? Even the lurkers know they can put their head above the parapet eventually, and when they do, they wonder what all the fuss was about. Welcome onboard Leeds, I hope you continue posting. Even I who know nothing compared to some of the geniuses on here will occassionally post some roobish :D For what it's worth I would go Supreme with Cue Card. I understand why some people are suggesting go straight to the Champion in case something happens to the horse but you cant think like that. He is a first season novice and another year before attacking the big one in 2012 will surely see him with a greater chance of being crowned Champion. having said that in the immediate aftermarth of his Cheltenham win I did think he looked like he could be in the top bracket already. Just out of interest, how tuned up was he? Didn't look more than 80% , would that be fair?

[who?me?]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion It's by posting and getting involved that I think you get the most out of these forums. Having to justify why I think a horse is or is not a good prospect can surely only help to improve my betting decisions. If people out there disagree with my opinion, that's fine. It'd be very boring if we all thought the same horse was going to win every time . I also hope that Cue Card will go for the Supreme Novices next March. When I think of him in the Champion Hurdle, the Specials song "Too Much Too Young" keeps coming to mind. Anyone got any thoughts as to which race Silviniaco Conti will be aimed for?

[BKI Punter]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Looks like he'll be aimed at the Champion as he's going for the International next month. He hasn't got any obvious CH horses so it makes sense with BB obviously going for the third World Hurdle. SC has looked so impressive so far and has trounced every rival he's ever faced by the looks of it. 10/1 is a tempting price.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Obviously I want Cue Card to go for the Supreme Novices with my "investment". Timeform rate his last run a good enough performance to win an average Supreme. And there's more improvement to come. Being as neutral as possible, I think how much progess he shows between now and March will be the thing to judge which race to go for. If Cue Card is rated within 5lbs of Binocular at that time, taking the Champion route will be fully justified. Best way to test this is to go for a trial against the best hurdlers. Or, if he were mine, I'd give him two races against novices, then go for the Totesport Trophy Handicap at Newbury. Won by novices Get Me Out Of Here, who was an unlucky second in the Supreme, and Make A Stand who went on to win the Champion. Another novice, Large Action also won the Totesport Gold Trophy; showing good enough form to win a Supreme Novices. But chose the Chamion, finishing third.

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion SC has been shortened today after Nicholls said it was the aim

[flemo83]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion NEPTUNE NOVICES HURDLE- AL FEROF 10/1 bet365 Performed really well in the champion bumper, only finding cue card too good. Was a doubtful runner in this even after beating the well touted MADE IN TIME in a decent back end bumper as paul nicholls always thought he wouldn't have enough speed and was crying out for a test of stamina. He should get this in the neptune, as with all races at the festival its normally run at a good clip. RSA CHASE- TIME FOR RUPERT 7/1 bet365 Never does nothing fast but is as reliable as they come. Made a promising debut over fences at cheltenham where his form figures read 1221. He was always thought of as a chasing type which makes his hurdle form look all the more impressive. Only had 12 starts under rules so theres plenty of room for improvement. Will definitley be goin for this race whilst others may have there head turned by the new jewson novices chase over 2 miles 4 RSA CHASE- REVE DE SIVOLA 20/1 PADDY POWER Should come on for his re appearance behind TIME FOR RUPERT and although he seems to have been around for ages, he's only had 11 starts over jumps (maybe more in france) so should still have improvement left in him. He's another one (like TIME FOR RUPERT) who is tough and genuine. The only worry is if connections go for the jewson novices chase as i think he's crying out for 3 miles. In my opinion he would have won the albert bartlett this year but was targeted at the wrong race (neptune) GOLD CUP- BURTON PORT 25/1 STAN JAMES Was continually underestimated due to the great hype behind long run and punchestowns last season. Was 2nd in the RSA before winning a decent race at aintree when he was thought to be over the top. With hopefully more focus on him this year i think there's more improvement to come. Expect to see his odds half if he wins the hennessey on saturday where i see nicky hendersons keen for geraghty to ride even tho he'll be another 2 pound wrong as he can't do the minimum weight

[cookie110]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion One horse im going to mention is Hurricane Fly. This horse has been unlucky with injuries for the past two seasons just when being primed for the champion hurdle. With his injury problems hopefully behind him, i just can't see any horse beating him in the 2011 renewal, including Binocular. He's at the right age now as he's six, has only been beaten in one of his six starts over hurdles, by Solwhit on heavy ground, something which he more than likely wont encounter at Cheltenham. He also shows a tremendous turn of foot when asked the question and providing this time he gets there fully fit, he wins hands down. Of course there is the question of wether or not he gets up the hill, this is the one grey area which we won't know until the day but there's no reason he wont. Has raced in the best company in Ireland, a four time Grade 1 winner and like i said earlier, the other was on heavy going. He's running in the Hattons Grace Hurdle on sunday over two and a half miles, a step up in distance, the ground is currently soft to heavy so if he were to fall short there, i wouldn't read too much into it as regards to the champion hurdle. He is 5/1 with most bookies however you can get 6/1 with betfred, victor chandler and stan james. A fully fit Hurricane Fly is my bet of the meeting, fingers crossed he gets there in one piece

[mowgli77]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I really like Hurricane Fly but wouldn't be touching it ante post. It could run at the weekend, win impressively and be shortened up but it could also pull up injured and not make it to the festival. All horses take that risk but when it has had the problems it has it makes you extra cautious. I've taken 33-1 on Clerks Choice for the Champion Hurdle each way with bet365. It ran flat last time out but hated the ground and I felt pushing it out to 50-1 was an overreaction. I'm going to back it again at that price. The course form at Cheltenham could prove vital, we see horses year after year following up a course win or impressive run there and this was a 21 length winner, certainly not struggling up that hill. Ground is key but 50-1 could look huge come March.

[diamond1924]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I like the look of THEGREATJOHNBROWNE for the RSA, took 16s the other week.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Its reading like connections might be going the Champ route with Cue Card, he could be seen next on Saturday the 11th Dec. I have some tasty e/w bets at some tasty prices, i could be blowing on my fingers, AGAIN, had him down for the Supreme, Bad times.

[ganjaman]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion DUNGUIb 12 months ago this horse was one of the most talked about horses around and 12 months later not a single person seems to have a spare thoughr for him despite a string of top-class efforts in defeat i believe the reason hes been forgotten is because when a horse seemingly un-beatable horse does get beaten people say the horse was over hyped and overratated.not so long ago binocular got beaten exactly the same distance as dunguib did in his supreme novice hurdle and he as gone on to look an absolute superstar since and there is no reason why dunguib cant do the same at cheltenham dunguib was clearly given a safe ride,what i mean is that he was ridden round the outside of the field out of all the trouble but in doing so he forfeited much more ground than he was beaten but in the end he stayed on right the way to the line behind 2 very good horses and i believe he still is one of the most exiting horses in training hopefully connections will be much more aggresive with his campaign this year as there is no need to wrap him up in cotton wool anymore as the pressure is off and if thats the case and dunguib does get plenty of hurdling practise then no one should be surprised if he,binocular and kyber kim are the only three horses still on the bridle coming around the turn at cheltenham in march