Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Dunguib was impressive in the Champion Bumper, so goes well at Cheltenham. Did get a poor ride in the Supreme, given a lot to do and wider than ideal. Would've been close between the three principles ridden diferently. Probably will improve on last years form, but it is disconcerting they've "chosen" not to run him until the new year. Not yet the most fluent of jumpers. Would've thought the more experience Dunguib gets, the more improvement is made and the better his jumping should become. So why the truncated campaign? :unsure

[kerznerpunt]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Silviniaco Conti > Cue Card, Binocular, every horse. Thats my opinion, since he destroyed Captain Chris i think hes the future. If i would consider to bet ante post he would be my selection without a doubt.Watch his races, watch every race from his UK debut to last time out. Hes a machine. He got something magic and he impressed me more then Cue Card and any other horse for a while.

[billvernon]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Cheltenham is warming up - some good performances this season Medermit Menorah Woolcombe Folly Diamond Harry Hurricane Fly Zaidpour Cue Card Time for Rupert Master Minded Big Bucks Poquelin Kauto Star Imperial Commander Peddlars Cross Smad place midnight chase Silvianico Conti :) Its looking to be a good Festival again this year

[BKI Punter]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Champion Hurdle looks to be an absolute cracker if most get there fit. Hurricane Fly Binocular Peddlers Cross Menorah Khyber Kim Silviniaco Conti Starluck Dunguib Go Native Cue Card? The way Hurricane Flyer cantered up to Solwhit and put the race to bed nicely was just so impressive. Especially given Solwhit was race-fit, as was Voler La Vadette, and that Mullins horses are bound to come on for the run with a few travelling well but blowing up late on in the past few days. 5/1 is so tempting but can he get there safe and sound? Given the price of Menorah, if Dunguib has improved he's a massive price. Especially given he would have definitely got closer had he been ridden differently at Cheltenham. He must have been ott by Punchestown, and pulling like a train didn't help him at all. The way he beat Fionnegas (RIP) with ridiculous ease was so impressive, and he went on to finish a length behind Reve De Sivola at Punchestown in the Champion Novice. Think he's a massive price if ridden with more confidence in his jumping. He jumped well enough at Punchestown, and in his early novice races his jumping was pretty decent, especially some of the leaps he put in to win the races at the last, albeit under no pressure. Going to go for it I think. Willie says his main priority is getting HF to Cheltenham, and I think he could turn up favourite on the day. 3pt win Hurricane Fly - 11/2 (WH) 2pt win Dunguib - 20/1 (WH)

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion HF was excellent, as was Zaidpour I am sure they will take the Supreme Novice route with Cue Card now, the CH is so strong if they all turn up and with his age may be best to wait a year until they tackle these and Menorah again?

[BKI Punter]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Cheltenham Gold Cup Glencove Marina 1pt win - 300.00 (Betfair) Big long-shot here but I like what I've seen this season and the price has the potential to collapse. The horse blew up on debut over 2m4f after travelling well for a long way and then confirmed this promise by beating Notre Pere by four lengths at Thurles over 2m6f, with Rare Bob back in third. Ran a blinder lto in the John Durkan behind Tranquil Sea. Wasn't exactly a fast run race which suited the likes of Tranquil Sea and J'y Vole, but he still finished fourth, only three lengths behind the leaders, initially outpaced but stayed on again at the end. Everything points to this horse wanting three miles and he'll finally get that now being aimed at the Lexus chase. I think he stands a big chance there, goes on any ground too. If he runs well or wins the Lexus this price could drop to double figures. I think Cooldine at 32.00 and this horse at 300.00 is all wrong.

[ganjaman]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion

HF was excellent, as was Zaidpour I am sure they will take the Supreme Novice route with Cue Card now, the CH is so strong if they all turn up and with his age may be best to wait a year until they tackle these and Menorah again?

zaidpour to me should be fav for the supreme hurdle after the way he won his last race and in my opinion he put up a much better performance than cue-card the week before at cheltenham,the form book wouldnt agree because the race zaidpour won was only a grade one in name only,but the way he finished the race and the enthusiasm he showed was in marked contrast to cue-cards last furlong or so and i dont believe cue-card put in a career best behind menorah like the ratings would say and if he turns up in the supreme in the same form that day i believe he wont beat zaidpour,even though zaidpour still as to prove he his high class,and up to claming a race like the supreme novice hurdle

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I really like the way he won, alot, but you still have to look at the opposition which was a LOT weaker. I am very interested in his next run, hopefully against some better sorts. He is entered at Leopardstown on the 29th if it goes ahead against some good novices. If he won that well the Neptune could very well be his target

[stewartd14]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion I dont know how heavily I am going to invest ante post at Cheltenham this year. However, I have had a few investments so far, one of which looks like the steal of the year: 20 pts Mikael D'Haguenet to win at Cheltenham Festival 2011 @ 9/2 Blue Square 1.5 pts Mikael D'Haguenet to win RSA Chase @ 10.0 Betfair 3 pts Mikael D'Haguenet to win RSA Chase @ 9/1 Bet 365 This horse, in my opinion, is a superstar in the making, and I cant emphasise how pleased I was that he showed on his comeback that he still has the ability that led him to a 6 race unbeaten run throughout 08/09. This unbeaten run took in a win at the Cheltenham Festival, when he hacked up in the Ballymore over 2m 5f and also a win at Punchestown at the Punchestown Festival. He disposed of both Karabak and Diamond Harry rather easily in the Ballymore, and both those horses are going on to prove themselves. If Mikael had raced last season, I have no doubt he would have progressed more than the 2 that he beat. However, as it is, he missed last year, and we have some interesting prices for him for the 2011 festival. The problem is, however, that the horse has enough speed for the Arkle, but could also easily go for the RSA. I personally think the RSA is the most likely target, but with the Mullins yard having so much firepower, its certainly not inconceivable that he will go for the Arkle. The problem here, obviously, is that its hard to back him ante post for either race as we cant be confident where he will go. This bet eliminates that problem. I am convinced this horse is going places, he handles Cheltenham, and has both speed and stamina. If he turns up at the festival, I think he will go very close, and 9/2 for him to win any race is just too good to turn down, as I think whatever race he goes for, will see him go off shorter than 9/2 on the day. :ok

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion He is class there is no doubt, really like him and hope he goes on to win. The bet for him to win at the festival looks a good one. The only concern would be the way he fell LTO. He seemed to jump it well enough and then legs buckled or gave way, prehaps not as strong now after the injury? Look forward to seeing him NTO, hopefully at Leopardstown. I also thought Jessies Dream was travelling really well too in that race LTO too and could be one to watch.

[stewartd14]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly Its hard to back this horse ante post as he has had so many problems, and has missed the last 2 festivals. However, sometimes the price is right, and I expect it will be possible to trade this one around 1 month before the festival to lower the risk. He's going to have a few runs before Cheltenham, and I expect him to solidify himself as the favourite for this race should he turn up in March. Came back after a long layoff to win relatively easily against Solwhit a couple of weeks back, which was a massive confidence boost for those that have followed the horse. Yet again, when asked, he produced the goods, and there was a lot to like about the way he won that day. There is a slight worry over a number of horses in the Champion IMO - Menorah, Binocular, etc, who will all be held up and make their challenges late. Hurricane Fly, however, is a bit more versatile, and should he get first run on the principals, I really cant see him being caught. Not a big ante post interest, but I do think that this horse will only get shorter the closer we get to Cheltenham. 4 pts Hurricane Fly @ 8.70 Betfair* *Average price. Small amount taken at 10.0 prior to win.

[stewartd14]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion

He is class there is no doubt, really like him and hope he goes on to win. The bet for him to win at the festival looks a good one. The only concern would be the way he fell LTO. He seemed to jump it well enough and then legs buckled or gave way, prehaps not as strong now after the injury? Look forward to seeing him NTO, hopefully at Leopardstown. I also thought Jessies Dream was travelling really well too in that race LTO too and could be one to watch.

Yep, concern is a valid one. Doesnt bother me too much personally, but only time will tell. Jessies Dream has been overlooked just because MDH fell. No telling what would have happened after the last, and you have to feel Jessie's will pay his way also for sure. If I knew he would take his chance in the new Novices Chase, I would be very interested at 10/1.

[Primevil]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion The arkle is a very open race, and after todays grade1, its even more open. Myself i would wait for the day, i dont think you will scalp too much between now and then.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Looking at todays winners at the 1st meeting of the year, 3 of the handicap winners Blazing Bailey, Ashkazar and Tartak all ran at last years festival and all finished down the field in their respective races (Blazing was behind Big Bucks, ashkazar 7th behind pause and clause in the conditional hurdle, tartak 5th in the grand annual), however today they all ran over longer distances, BB 3m 2f, AshK 3m and Tartak 2m 5f. Will be interestinhg to see thier targets come March however i cant see any of them winning off higher marks now in the festival races, Blazing Bailey may be worth keeping an eye on though depending on the weight rise. Oscar Whiskey was an impressive winner and must go into the notebook for more wins this season as i expect it will be placed to good effect. Hells Bay wasnt a 16/1 chance in my book after its 2nd behind Time for Rupert last time out, travelled well again today and i am gutted i couldnt get some money on it in favour of Hendersons horse which ran well enough but perhaps needs to stay on a flatter course (Aintree ?). Hells bay will not be that price again at this venue. I cant see Ashkazar coming back to win here again as will possibly have to do it off top weight again, the front 2 today set it up for a horse that Murphy had tanking along and then he realised he could get past his stablemate up the hill, i dont think he expected to win though ! My old favourite Buena Vista made sure of a weight decrease in time for a repeat win at the festival in march by finishing down the field, expect they want to get dropped to 135 and then put a claimer on board to take it down to 130 in march. Taranis still had a chance when falling at the 2nd last behond Tartak and this one hopefully will be campaigned for one of the Cheltenham races and should still be kept on board when the entries come out. A nice horse still lightly raced and boasts a record of 10 wins in 18 races for his trainer.

[adam7982]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Just back from Cheltenham Today. Was majorly impressed with Oscar whiskey very nice and 100% in the note book. Could certainly be one to keep in mind for the festival

[mowgli77]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Anyone know what race Hell's Bay will go for at the festival? I read trainer comments in Racing Post and fancied it, read Trading Post section, also favourable but then let the spotlight comments of main page put me off and backed just Reve De Sivola instead of both of them. I was impressed with the way it travelled, how it jumped and how it finished. That course form will be vital come March.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion

Anyone know what race Hell's Bay will go for at the festival? I read trainer comments in Racing Post and fancied it' date=' read Trading Post section, also favourable but then let the spotlight comments of main page put me off and backed just Reve De Sivola instead of both of them. I was impressed with the way it travelled, how it jumped and how it finished. That course form will be vital come March.[/quote'] The new 2m4f race, mate. Colin said 99% sure to run there.

[Spooner]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion

Just back from Cheltenham Today. Was majorly impressed with Oscar whiskey very nice and 100% in the note book. Could certainly be one to keep in mind for the festival

Don't think he'll win in March, going for the champion by the looks of it, tough ask. Should make a nice chaser though, watch out for this one next season.

[adam7982]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion

Don't think he'll win in March, going for the champion by the looks of it, tough ask. Should make a nice chaser though, watch out for this one next season.

very true spooner. Looks a classy horse though and you just never know but I agree the race he will be going for is decent contest.

[Goldikova]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion The 16/1 with regards to Mikael for the RSA must be tempting to punters who can afford to write off any potential loss if it doesn't turn up. He showed exactly what he's about on his season debut. His next appearance was perhaps a bit too sudden for a horse that's had his problems. It was also on sft/heavy going at a shorter trip. Maybe Mullins eagerness was a contributing factor to the horses display, or lack of it. The problem with handing over your money at this stage is the trainers lack of transparency. It's all rolled in to the price, which at 16s has to be worth it if the tweaks can be ironed out. There's no way i'm accepting his last run as any sort of marker, apart from the marker that says "this horse shouldn't have ran".

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Here is my first ante post bet for the festival RYANAIR CHASE TARANIS 120.0 Betfair I noted how well the horse ran last week at the course only to fall 2 out. I think it would have been in the shake up had it cleared that fence. Nichols has to decide what to do next, personally i would try and win with the horse over the next 4 weeks perhaps even coming back to Cheltenham at the end of this month to run in the Argento chase agsain which it won last year. The Ryanair trip is perfect at 2m 5f for this one. It has 2 course and distance wins and i am certain this is its best trip, it also fits the profile of a Ryanair winner also. Ok, it may be 10yo now but is so lightly raced after a series of injuries so can still possibly land a decent festival race. The price is too big to miss for me as if it lines up, it will be around 16/1 at best.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion

Anyone know what race Hell's Bay will go for at the festival? I read trainer comments in Racing Post and fancied it' date=' read Trading Post section, also favourable but then let the spotlight comments of main page put me off and backed just Reve De Sivola instead of both of them. I was impressed with the way it travelled, how it jumped and how it finished. That course form will be vital come March.[/quote'] Hells Bay should run in the Centenary Chase. Can't see him staying the trip or being good enough in the RSA. Though I'd have to look at the conditions for the new race. The Dipper was a grade 2 as (I believe) the Centenary will be, so it is possible he will have a penalty. Is also a bit of a thinker, often finds less under pressure than you'd think. I am trying to keep out of the ante-post market for novice chases at Cheltenham. Unless, the trainer confirms his intensions (Time For Rupert).

[cpo]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Can anyone confirm to me which race Arcalis is going for? I think its the Pertemps final

[cpo]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Also your thoughts on L'accordioniste... Quevega will take some stopping but i have been impressed with this horse and think the step up in trip will really suit

[boyd]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Last year i went to the Cheltenham festival for the first time on the opening day but didn't stay anywhere, but this year myself and about six mates will be staying over for a couple of nights. I have just been on to have a look at accommodation and seen that any available places within Cheltenham that week are extremely expensive. Can anyone that has been before recommend anywhere best to stay that is quite cheap? Sorry this is not regarding any antepost bets. Rather than clog up this Cheltenham betting thread can someone PM with info etc. if that is better

[TheRat]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Worcester is not far on the train. A lot of people stay there when the festival is on

[NewPunter]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Haven't been on for a while but I finally invested some antepost cash into the festival on Xmas Day(with the view they may shorten after Boxing Day :\) Here's my betting so far... Supreme Novices-Toubab 1pt win 15.0 RSA-AiteenThirtyThree-1pt win 24.0 World Hurdle-Celestial Halo 1pt win 42.0, 1pt place 7.4 Champion Hurdle-Dunguib 1pt win 22.0, 1pt place 6 Starluck 1pt win 50.0, 1pt place 9.4 Gold Cup-Cooldine 1pt win 32.0, 1pt place 8.0 Thoughts anyone?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion

Also your thoughts on L'accordioniste... Quevega will take some stopping but i have been impressed with this horse and think the step up in trip will really suit

Agree Laccordioniste is a mare that could improve in to a danger to Quevega. I'd say she is most likely to go for the Mares Cpo, but the stable does have a couple of other possibles for that. So still might end up in a handicap. So I'd go for "with a run" if you do fancy her for Chelters.

[elfitz82]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Can anyone shed some light on which race Medermit will run in? The antepost betting seems to indicate hell run in the Jewson over the Arkle (14s vs 8s). I would have thought the shorter trip would suit. Plus, I just backed Tartak @ 75s on BF for the Ryanair. Am I missing something here as to why his price is so big? Hes 10s on Laddies.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Cheltenham 2011 - Ante post bets and discussion Champion Hurdle: Khyber Kim 1pt e/w 16/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 4 places) With Khyber Kim due to make his seasonal debut on Saturday any half decent run will probably see him shorten up for Cheltenham. It might be the time to take the each way price and take advantage of the four places. This season Khyber Kim is being campaigned with the Champion Hurdle as his number one objective. Last year he finished a clear second to Binocular who could well take the race again but he is not likley to be too much shorter in price come March. Previous year's placed horses have come back and run well in the Champion Hurdle, Punjabi being a prime example. Khyber Kim has the look of a late developer and in the past couple of years has improved over 20lbs. His age is a slight concern however there are relatively few miles on the clock. Khyber Kim goes particularly well at Cheltenham and his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies usually has his string in form for March. Hurricane Fly heads the market and ranks a big danger, however he has never raced at Cheltenham and his odds keep shortening for beating the same horse. There are younger pretenders who have the right credentials with course form, yet this may be a year too soon. Weighing it all up Khyber Kim looks a decent each way bet.