Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

2:35 Ascot 29 points @ 4/1 (L) Silviniaco Conti 31 points @ 7/2 (b365) Karabak

So Chappers has made Silvi a market drifter! "Out from 3/1 to 9/2", where is the 9/2? From what I saw he was top price this morning of 4/1. If it was 9/2 once, it's gone. Of course if some bookies are 3/1 they won't have any money for it when another is 4/1. Should a horse who goes from top price 4/1 to 9/2 and back again be a drifter? Where as Zaynar has gone out from 6/4 to 7/4. Souldn't it be Zaynar the "drifter", not Silvi? :unsure

[BillyHills]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 9/2 at Stan James a minute ago.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Just seen that BH. Soon as I put that post up SJ went 9/2. Although Zaynar has also gone out further to 15/8. So I'd say it is still Zaynar who deserves to be the "drifter".

[jtw1]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Smashing hat-trick of winners today Ginge :clap

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Thanks Jtw, Noticed you had 1 bet and 1 winner with Imerial Commander today.:ok When adding up the percentages today, none of my 3 from 3 were that surprising. With a total of 152.18 points profit. So many PL members had a good day today. Monterosso's excellant thread had a 40/1 placed, unlucky with Palypso too, well backed, going well (some way out) before falling.

[BillyHills]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Well done mate:clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Cracking stuff today mate, lovely profit altogether. :eek I really enjoy your posts and long may they continue. :clap

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Thanks guys, Will do an update tomorrow after racing. Now for Aintree: 1:45 Aintree 22 points @ 10/1 (L) Notre Pere 15 points @ 14/1 (L) Whatuthink 9 points @ 64/1 Minster Shadow Two more to come when my bets are taken.

[fintron]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Well done today Ginge, some very nice returns. :clap Can't understand why Notre Pere is so big for the Becher either, off a mark as low as 151, off the back of a promising pipeopener over an inadequate trip. I suppose his jumping isn't as strong as, say, Hello Bud, but even still....

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Thanks guys, Will do an update tomorrow after racing. Now for Aintree: 1:45 Aintree 22 points @ 10/1 (L) Notre Pere 15 points @ 14/1 (L) Whatuthink 9 points @ 64/1 Minster Shadow Two more to come when my bets are taken.

Aaarrrgh! Hanging on for all of my bet @ 54/1 Ballyvesey has seen it shorten to 45/1.:(. Not going to hold out for a better price on the saver so here is the other two. 10 points @ 45/1 Ballyvesey 7 points @ 8/1 (b365) Hello Bud

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Well done today Ginge, some very nice returns. :clap Can't understand why Notre Pere is so big for the Becher either, off a mark as low as 151, off the back of a promising pipeopener over an inadequate trip. I suppose his jumping isn't as strong as, say, Hello Bud, but even still....

Totally agree with everything you said there Fin. May be top weight, but thrown in on his best form. Last year it wasn't just Notre Pere that had a poor year, trainer (Dreaper) did too. So there are some grounds to suggest a return to form could be on the cards. Like you say, his reappearance was over an inadequate trip. Fact he again managed to make at least one mistake is disconcerting. Was an exceptional leper two seasons back. Has great form in long distance races on very soft ground. Hello Bud ran well in the race for a long way, as he did in the showpiece in April, jumping brilliantly. However, must be said his finishing effort was poor on both occasions. I'd like to see an attacking ride, get a lead and then hope to hang on. It's definately isn't that he does not stay. Won Scottish National, might be something to do with hearing the crowd. Ran well on "reappearance" last term when third at Cheltenham before coming here a week later. Might do better coming to Aintree first.

[kerznerpunt]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

I sent an e-mail to Hugh Taylor last week, asking about why the media did not talk about percentages? Was that the one Trotter/Rat? Missed it. They must have held it over to this week if so. If pundits would say "he's 7/4, but I don't believe he has a better than 36% chance of winning". Or "I believe he has a better than 11% chance of winning and therefore 8/1 is a good value bet". - Then punters will understand more about how to bet-. What was the reply from Hugh Taylor? Others have their moments, but Hugh and Sean Boyce are the two on ATR that (imo) know what they are talking about. Did they read it out as coming from "Gingertipster"? :lol

I know a bit late... Why they should talk about it ginge? If a punter is interested in seriously making money and he wants to know exactly what the odds are in percentages theres one mighty tool to use. Google:notworthy. Google Search: Odds Percentage Table. For example: http://www.isfa.com/odds-probability-chart.php . Its that easy. Everybody knows thats its only about identyfing a "good" bet and still most punters loose and it wont change anything if Hughe is talking about it and explaining the racing public that a 9/4 bet that steamed in to Evs represents much more value than a 8/1 who steamed into 5/1. Everybody can use this table ...odds compilers do it every day in every race and still most people just dont get it.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Exactly mate, essential knowledge.:ok Don't expect the media to keep it in the public eye. The table is in our Glossary / Q&A, in the stikies. Page 6 #111.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 12:35 Aintree 31 points @ (best early price in pricewise box) Stormin Exit 19 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Dashing George 6 points @ 9/1 (SJ) Frankie Figg 4 points @ 14/1 (SJ) Craiglands

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

12:35 Aintree 31 points @ (best early price in pricewise box) Stormin Exit 19 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Dashing George 6 points @ 9/1 (SJ) Frankie Figg 4 points @ 14/1 (SJ) Craiglands

Not got a Racing Post this morning, but believe Stormin Exit's price was/is 7/1.

[BillyHills]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

31 points @ (best early price in pricewise box) Stormin Exit

Ginge, not being awkward (for once) but can you explain why lately you have been putting the above statement with your bets? Does this mean you havnt actually backed the horse, obviously if you had you would know the price? Or am i being a bit thick here? Surely if you whole idea is backing value how can you suggest a bet if you dont know the actual price? Seems like something totally against your whole philosophy of betting?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Notre Pere may be top weight, but thrown in on his best form. Last year it wasn't just Notre Pere that had a poor year, trainer (Dreaper) did too. So there are some grounds to suggest a return to form could be on the cards. Like you say, his reappearance was over an inadequate trip. Fact he again managed to make at least one mistake is disconcerting. Was an exceptional leper two seasons back. Has great form in long distance races on very soft ground. Hello Bud ran well in the race for a long way, as he did in the showpiece in April, jumping brilliantly. However, must be said his finishing effort was poor on both occasions. I'd like to see an attacking ride, get a lead and then hope to hang on. It's definately isn't that he does not stay. Won Scottish National, might be something to do with hearing the crowd. Ran well on "reappearance" last term when third at Cheltenham before coming here a week later. Might do better coming to Aintree first.

Private Be has a good chance on the book, well handicapped. But does not win very often, pulls himself up in front and not certain to stay. Maljimar was going well when falling at second Beechers Brook in the National, but that's him. Always travels unbelievably well as we know from that Wichita Lineman finish. Again, does not find much under pressure. Seems to stay, but that is based on a placed effort in a very slowly run cross-country event. Merigo won the Scottish National on very different ground, but has a very rounded (soft ground) action and won Eider on heavy. Usually jumps well. Not that much immediate encouragement when well behind 8^th of 10 (not knocked about) in hurdle on reappearance. A market move might be significant, but might be having a run around to get experience for April. Meanas Dandy won the Badger Beer in vastly different conditions than here, winning it through speed as much as stamina. Well beaten in Scottish National. Big sort, but whether he will be suited by these fences is questionable. Has looked temperamental and blinkers need to work a second time. Whatuthink has ideal conditions. Effective at 3 miles and placed in Irish Grand National on very soft ground. Well below form on reappearance in October, probably needed it and not knocked about. Probably been trained for this. Gullible Gordon improved when jumping well, making all on a sound surface last time. Remains to be seen whether he will do so again if taken on up front. Has some form on a softer surface and stays well. Imoncloudnine was well behind Meanas Dandy last time, but that was under different conditions to here. Won at this meeting (park fences) last year. Stable in cracking form and one not to dismiss. Irish Raptor has a good record over these fences, but the ground probably puts too much emphasis on stamina today. Doesn't seem in good enough form anyway and getting old.. Royal Rosa another 11 year old. Has placed form over the course but never impresses with his attitude. Pak Jack has good course form. Trainer Richard Phillips was at a WBRC racing club event last month. He was fairly keen on his chance in this. I'm not, even with Grand national winning jockey Liam Treadwell up. Should get around, but seems on the downgrade these days. Newman Des Pages won a poor race first time up, but his form is very in and out, mostly out. Doubtful he'll take to these fences. One Cool Cookie is well handicapped at best. Below form this season, but it's possible has been trained for this. Look for a market move. Has looked a bit of a character in the past, hence the headgear. Midnight Gold ran a poor race last time. Pulled up and does not jump well enough. Ballyvesey isn't the best handicapped, but runs as if this sort of test will suit (3m3f on soft). Stable is also now in better form than when last seen, well beaten over inadequate trip. Second to Gullible Gordon penultimate start at 3m3f on good-firm, outpaced. Minster Shadow should not be good enough, but loves soft ground and a long trip. Will be staying on when others have had enough. Might be worth a pound or two at massive odds. Au Courrant hasn't shown anything yet for new connections (sold for under £8000), was a fair chaser for Nicky Henderson last season. Unlikely stayer.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Ginge, not being awkward (for once) but can you explain why lately you have been putting the above statement with your bets? Does this mean you havnt actually backed the horse, obviously if you had you would know the price? Or am i being a bit thick here? Surely if you whole idea is backing value how can you suggest a bet if you dont know the actual price? Seems like something totally against your whole philosophy of betting?

No problem BH :ok, I encourage questions. It is just a matter of trying to get the "best" value. It does mean I either have not yet backed the horse or (more likely) only had half my stake (have now backed Stormin Exit). Occasionally when I know I don't have much time next morning. I see on oddschecker in the early hours a horse whos top price is in my opinion VALUE (in this case 7/1 Ladbrokes). However, there are some bookmakers without prices quoted. So it is possible the best price might be even better VALUE come opening time. I do find this is more likely to happen in Pricewise races. Also more likely when the betfair price is (in the early hours) less than the apparent bookmakers best price. I hear Whatuthink is a Pricewise horse, may be I should have done the same with him, was he any bigger than 14/1?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

12:35 Aintree 31 points @ (best early price in pricewise box) Stormin Exit 19 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Dashing George 6 points @ 9/1 (SJ) Frankie Figg 4 points @ 14/1 (SJ) Craiglands

Sorry this is so late. Stormin Exit is the one horse that might be "well in". Improving when last seen out. Has won on heavy going, though not absolutely sure to stay on the ground. Worthy favourite from a stable that often targets these races. Stable companion Craiglands was placed in this last year when given too much to do. Hasn't set the world alight since, but horses for courses. Something that applies to Frankie Figg. Put in a spectacular round of jumping in this last year until getting one wrong and coming down, had a winning chance. Well below form last time, but trainer in much better form now. Dashing George 7th in Towcester handicap hurdle on "reappearance", had much better form in Ireland. This his first start for up and coming trainer who often improves them. Might want a little further, but conditions will place emphasis on stamina. Raced prominently in Ireland which often helps in this race.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Weekend Results 2:05 Ascot No bet on this race, but plenty of interest. 6/1 Master Minded for the Queen Mother Champion chase looks a good bet now. His wind operation obviously worked well. Those with breathing problems often carry their heads high, with a noseband (shadow-roll) used to bring it down. Master Minded's noseband discarded this day. Jumped with all his old enthusiasm. Going supremely well when Alberta's Run (already pushed along) fell. Won by a long distance. Although holes can be poked in form; the way he did it suggests Master Minded is still a top class 2 miler. Probably will not need to run anywhere near form of his first Champion Chase to win this time around. Alberta's Run is an inconsistent racehorse, might be back to his best at some point, but form of the two Grade 1's last season does not look great and may struggle to give weight in Grade 2's. 2:35 Ascot 29 @ 4/1 Silviniaco Conti (SP 100/30) 1^st Return 145 points :nana -31 @ 7/2 Karabak (3/1) 2^nd -3 @ 79/1 Black Jack Blues (50/1) (63) 82 points profit Both main bets well backed, Despite Chappers trying to make out there was no money for Silviniaco Conti. Quoted afterwards for both Stayers and Champion Hurdle. Latter looks far more likely. Stable has Big Buck's for former and travelled really well throughout in this 2m3f event. Won't be inconvenienced by a drop in trip. Only a four year old, but French horses mature far earlier than British and Irish. Has more progression to make to challenge Binocular, but improving fast. Beat a reliable yardstick in Karabak, although he's probably a touch better over 3m. Restless Harry is another who could yet improve at 3m, though looks just below top class anyway. Zaynar is turning from prolific winner in to a dog. Did not want to go with them halfway and Gerraghty did well to go wide to get some sort of effort out of him. Unless Time For Rupert or Punchestowns revert to hurdles, Big Buck's looks a good thing for the World Hurdle. 3:10 Ascot -28 (14ew) @ 10/1 Tatenen (8/1) 10 @ 3/1 Woolcombe Folly (7/2) 1^st Return 40 points :nana (38) 2 points profit Tatenen was too free to do himself justice, weakening late on. Possibly made a bad decision to make an inconsistent horse an “each way” selection. Should've made Woolcombe Folly a “main bet” too, particularly when going out to 7/2. Winner could do better on a left-handed track, jumped left up the finishing straight. As expected, Cockney Trucker's jumping let him down. Did not expect Noble Allen to find so little, may be his earlier win took more out of him than it seemed at the time. 3:25 Haydock 75 @ 10/11 Imperial Commander (10/11) Return 143.18 points :nana (75) 68.18 points profit Circumstances meant Imperial Commander did not show his true superiority. On ground that seemed a bit softer than the official; Brennen probably kicked on a bit too soon. With those coming from rear pushed along before the straight staying on well at the finish. Where as the other prominent runner going well on the turn for home (Nacarat) dropped away. - Imperial Commander is far better than distances suggest. Tidal Bay made up a lot of ground late, but his reluctance to go with them early on probably ended up helping him go the correct pace. Probably flattered. Planet Of Sound ran well enough, but seemed exposed as not quite top class in this company; at least in Britain. Unlike Master Minded, What A Friend's wind operation has not worked. Displaying a high head carriage often seen with a temperament flaw. For the future: Imperial Commander has never won right-handed, but has had other excuses when tried. Last two years he's gone in to the King George with Twister in very poor form. It may be this is a stable that always has a lean spell at that time of year. Is nursing a cut, so might be best to wait until we know how long his training will be effected; but at the moment 7/1 looks a massive price. Although Kauto Star won in Ireland, was under quite a lot of pressure to do so and the performance nowhere near his best. As a French bred (who mature earlier) 11 years old, it is nowhere near certain he will be as good as ever in his attempt on a fifth King George. Of the others Nacarat found out by stamina as well as ability here, will be much better suited to Kempton. particularly if ground conditions aren't too testing. Two of his best runs have come there. Nicholls Star might be able to win another Christmas show-piece, but again his age makes Imperial Commander a better bet for Cheltenham. We know Brennen's ride goes well there. Days Profit 152.18 points 12:35 Aintree -31 @ 7/1 Stormin Exit (13/2) Fell -19 @ 20/1 Dashing George (12/1) 6 @ 9/1 Frankie Figg (10/1) 1^st Return 60 points :nana -4 @ 14/1 Craiglands (8/1) (60 0 points profit Winner Frankie Figg the only one of the four to start at a bigger price than the one taken. Surprisingly “easy to back”. As expected, put in an excellent round of jumping out in front. Front running is something which connections of most have not realised is a big advantage around here. If you don't believe me just look back at results of previous years. Stormin Exit was going better than anything when slipping in to Beechers, suppose everyone thinks they were “unlucky” at this course. Dashing George very well backed. Got around and in with every chance over the last, before weakening when jumping mistakes took their toll. Hardly jumped one well, either hitting the top or slow. Looks one to be interested in around park fences, given time to get over this. Craiglands also extremely well backed, just did not take to it this time. Nikola might be one to take on next time. Going ominously well for a long way, before as usual finding nowt. Magic Sky ran his race. Previous winner Always Waining possibly needs a bit better going but inconsistent these days. Real shame Private Be collapsed and died after the race. Infrequent winner, but regularly placed in valuable handicaps over the years. 1:45 Aintree -22 @ 10/1 Notre Pere (8/1) -15 @ 14/1 Whatuthink (12/1) Fell -9 @ 64/1 Minster Shadow (25/1) UR -10 @ 45/1 Ballyvesey (25/1) 4^th 7 @ 8/1 Hello Bud (15/2) 1^st Return 63 points :nana (63) 0 points profit Thankfully Paddy Mangan does not seem to be as badly hurt as it seemed afterWhatuthink's first fence fall. May be we should question whether it is a good idea to allow 7lb claimers to ride over these fences. Hello Bud yet another front runner to win this race. Young rider advertising his ability again. Horse will be 13 when the National comes around, but shows no sign of regressing yet and actually improved as an 11 year old in Scottish National. Beecher winners are often hit hard by the handicapper and the form does not look up to much. Royal Rosa ran one of his better races, has had training problems over the years, clearly likes it here. However, is one to take on over park fences. One Cool Cookie stayed on after hampered, better than distances suggest. Might look as if Irish Raptor was unlucky, but he barely stays this far and often finishes weakly. Notre Pere jumped well, which is encouraging for connections. Once a top notcher, shame did not have the opportunity to run in the National when at his peak. Not given a hard ride under top-weight once his chance had gone. Badly hampered at Beechers, but in truth looked beaten before that fence. Might not get ground soft enough if coming back here in April. Thought I might have a big pay day when Ballyvesey struck the front passing Melling Road. Looked to me more mind than not staying. May be his run of seconds tells its own story. Deserves credit aanyway, jumping well up with the pace throughout. My other outsider Minster Shadow ran well enough, seemed beaten when one of the last to unseat. Meanas Dandy and Imoncloudnine's owners weren't on cloud nine afterwards (may be Duralay, carpet fitter's joke). Riders forgot to go with their mounts when taking a left at Canal turn. Too far out to know how they would've fared, latter going better of the two. Two wins from bets in two races, but no profit! That's what happens sometimes with saver bets. Still, breaking even is better than a loss, both winners were main bets in these races last year. Days Profit 0 Points Weekend Profit 158.12 points :nana Total Profit 148.5 points

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 ANTE-POST BOOK Paddy Power Gold Cup 15 points each way @ 25/1 The Sawyer (SP 25/1) unplaced -30 points Deficit Morgiana Hurdle 45 points @ 15/8 Solwhit 1^st (SP 11/10) Return 129.38 12 points @ 4/1 Donnas Palm 3^rd (57) 72.38 points Profit Hennessey Gognac Gold Cup 23 points @ 8/1 Weird Al (current best price (BP) 6/1) King George VI Chase 27 points @ 14/1 Imperial Commander (BP 13/2 one place Corals) Supreme Novices Hurdle 16 points @ 16/1 Cue Card (BP 3/1 one place Ladbrokes) Lay 18 points @ 2.8/1 Cue Card (effectively losing 50.4 from my potential winning profit of 256 points) Champion Hurdle 30 points @ 5/1 Binocular (3/1) RSA Chase 27 points @ 8/1 Time For Rupert (7/1) Champion Chase 30 points @ 6/1 Master Minded (3/1) Triumph Hurdle 27 points @ 8/1 Sam Winner (11/2) Cheltenham Gold Cup 25 points @ 11/2 Imperial Commander (9/2) 13 points @ 5/1 Imperial Commander Total profit 42.38 points Weird Al's price has fractionally lengthened. Master Minded's win halved his price. Sam Winner continues to shorten. Imperial Commander shortens for both King George and Gold Cup.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup A third Hennessey for Denman would be historic, will be cheering him on to do so. With only eight horses carrying their correct weight, you'd thimk this an uncompetitive race. It is not. There are many out of the weights capable of improvement. Denman 10 11-12: One of the top 20 chasers ever seen. A big brute who runs rivals in to submission. Due to be reunited with Gold Cup winning jockey Sam Thomas. Showed he was as good as ever in this last year, but probably not firing when fell in Aon Chase. Not far below best in the Gold Cup. Capable of running well fresh, a lot seems to depend on what Denman looks like in the paddock. Looked in cracking shape before the Hennessey and (reportedly) well at Cheltenham. To me he disappointed walking around before the Aon, dull in coat and unenthusiastic. Although very genuine once racing, has some quirks. Sometimes proving difficult at the start. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see this well loved horse plant himself one day. In just over a month's time Denman will be 11 years old, most of that age are on the downgrade, certainly unlikely to improve. At around 4/1 hardly represents value, but may well shorten up further with public interest. Neptunes Collonges 9 10-8: One of Denman's stable companions; dropped significantly in the weights for his absence, not seen since Gold Cup day 2009. Suffered a tendon injury there when a disappointing fourth, 8 ½ lengths behind Denman. Beat Notre Pere (then top class) 5 lengths in Irish Hennessey (Grade 1). Best on a soft surface. If fully fit and injury hasn't taken its toll (quite big Ifs) looks well handicapped. China Rock 7 10-4: A decent Irish novice, second in Champion Novice at Punchestown over 3m1f. Ran well in Britain, good fourth in Jewson Handicap at the Festival. Very progressive this season. Only just over 4 lengths behind a below form winner Kauto Star (levels) in Jwwine.com Champion Chase. Raced prominently of late, has a good chance if maintaining improvement over this slightly longer trip. Equally effective on soft or good ground, although a softer surface will place more emphasis on stamina. Looks like Barry Gerraghty will ride and the ground turning in China Rock's favour. Over-priced at 20/1. Taranis 9 10-4: Another Nicholls runner, lightly raced and prone to injury, but has an exceptional record fresh. Won Cotswold Chase by 6 lengths, getting 6lbs from second Carruthers. On the face of it that looks good form. For that to be the case you must believe Joe Lively, who gave Taranis 10lbs and beaten only 7 ¼ lengths, produced his only good run in two years. Madison Du Berlais 9 10-1: Ex-winner of the race, but although only nine seems on the decline. Below par on all starts last term and looks of doubtful temperament. Flattered second in King George, running on to beat some who chased winner. Also distant third behind Kauto Star in Betfair Chase in 09. Second, down in grade over hurdles on reappearance after making most. Possibly best when able to dominate from the front these days. Barbers Shop 8 10-0: Fourth in this last year, but poor win to run ratio which betrays a dodgy mind. Travelled well in his races last season (good distant third to Kauto Star in King George) not so this. Refused to put it all in in Charlie Hall. Judging by price on Betfair probable non-runner. Silver By Nature 8 10-0: Could be one to keep an eye on this season. One of the most progressive chasers in 09/10. Unlucky second in Welsh National and winner of Blue Square Gold Cup in tremendous fashion by 15 lengths. Has since had a chipped bone in a knee, not thought to be a serious injury. Those performances were over further than this and will probably need very soft ground to bring abundant stamina in to play (unlikely). Carruthers 7 10-0 (9-13): More consistent than overall form suggests given a prominent position and give in the ground. Unable to dictate when beaten by Taranis in Cotswold Chase last term. Unlucky to be pipped for third in Gold Cup. Taking first two on up front and beaten by one coming from way back. Unable to achieve his normal prominent position when well beaten on reappearance. Part owned by Lord Oaksey and from the small yard of his son-in-law. Carruthers would look over-priced if it's soft enough for him. The Tother One 9 10-0 (9-12): Should be suited by the trip, but has two ways of running. Best form early in the season. Even so looks ungenuine with a poor win to run ratio. Four lengths second to Nacarat in eight runner Charlie Hall on reappearance, racing with a high head carriage. Not sure to do as well in much larger field if taking his chance. Burton Port 6 10-0 (9-10): Another second season Nicky Henderson / Trevor Hemmings Hennessey winner? Placed in RSA, staying on after pushed along some way out, doing best of stable's three runners. An increased test should play to his strengths. Also won two other top novices, Reynoldstown and Mildmay. Does not look especially well handicapped, but young enough to improve. Has winning knack, just doing enough. Gerraghty not able to do the weight switched to China Rock. Diamond Harry 7 10-0 (9-10): Exceptional record fresh, never been beaten first time out, should see him run well here. Certainly well handicapped on hurdles form. Could yet improve over fences. Two wins over larger obstacles (including here) before disappointing in RSA at Cheltenham, making mistakes. Best on a soft surface. Sometimes gives the impression he's quirky, but has a good win to run ratio. Usual pilot Timmy Murphy going to Newcastle and Darryll Jacob takes over. Sometimes hangs left and jockey seems at pains to keep to the rail. Which is often not ideal in a finish at Newbury. Weird Al 7 10-0 (9-10): Genuine unbeaten chaser. Won three novice chases, looking a serious RSA candidate before a small fracture in front leg cut season short. Raced only on a soft surface. Dead-heated with Little Josh on reappearance, who franked the form in no uncertain terms winning the Paddy Power. Weird Al made up a lot of ground late on, just getting up to share the prize at Carlisle over an inadequate trip of 2 ½ miles. Did finish very tired there. Provided he does not bounce, looks well weighted despite 4lbs out of the handicap. Paddy Brennen probably rides. Big Fella Thanks 8 10-0 (9-9) Changed stables from Nicholls to Ferdy Murphy, but seems as good as ever judging by second on reappearance. However, gave the race away after looking the winner. Like he tried to do at Newbury last term. Looked likely to hack up before badly idling. At least those tendencies make him difficult for the handicapper to get a handle on. Twice looked well handicapped in Grand National but failed to stay. This trip should be within his compass. Not one to bet win only. Dream Alliance 9 10-0 (9-9) Lightly raced, poor jumping out and out stayer. Won last years Welsh National with a better than usual round of jumping, only significant error at the last. 11 lengths second to Denman in his first Hennessey back in 07 and now 7lbs worse off with that rival. Niche Market 9 10-0 (9-6) Made uncharacteristic mistakes before falling on reappearance / first start for Nicholls stable. Favourite; did not get in to his usual prominent position there, or when disappointed in Grand National. May jump better up with the pace. Over 7 lengths third to Denman (on same terms) in last years Hennessey for Bob Buckler after disappointing run in same Wincanton race. Just touched off in AON Chase, so clearly goes well at Newbury. Best on going no softer than good-soft. Pandorama 7 10-0 (9-6): Progressive and prolific, lightly raced Irish chaser. Found to have blood in nose at start on intended reappearance, favourite at time of withdrawl. Kept to a soft surface, obviously fragile and now unraced for 11 months, reportedly due to muscle problems. Won two of Ireland's best novice chases before his enforced leave and clearly has potential for improvement. Hey Big Spender 7 10-0 (9-8): Is 6lbs out of the handicap (provided Denman runs). Good jumper up until bad mistake and unseating in Jewson Novices Handicap at Cheltenham Festival. Going well at the time. Then fell at Aintree only other start in 09/10. Few minor mistakes on reappearance at Carlisle. Pulling quite hard yet stayed on to beat Big Fella Thanks a length off same terms as here. Probably helped by that rival idling badly when seemingly sure to win. Hey Big Spender has scope for further improvement if jumping consistently and settling better. Although acts on soft going, good ground might help slightly suspect stamina. Razor Royale 8 10-0 (9-4): Racing Post winner, beat Nacarat a neck in receipt of 17lbs. Remote 4^th in Scottish Grand National, failed to stay 4 miles and weakened 11^th of 12 finishers (mistakes) over 1 furlong less than Hennessey trip. Inconsistent and can look unwilling. 10 lbs out of the handicap here. Unlikely starter judged by Betfair price and stable jockey riding Weird Al. Hills Of Aran 8 10-0 (9-3): Winner of two novice chases in summer of 09 before injury. Returned over hurdles and respectable 4^th at Chepstow in listed handicap (October). Difficult to know just how much chasing ability retains. Yet to prove himself over this trip. 11lbs out of the handicap. Rare Bob 8 10-0 (9-3): Irish chaser, winner of the poorly named “Champions Novices Chase” in April 09 (3m1f on soft) Fair 3^rd of 4 finishers at 2 ¾ miles, beaten 6 lengths by Glencove Marina giving 3lbs on reappearance. Judging from Betfair price is unlikely starter from 11lbs out of the handicap. Already advised: 23 points @ 8/1 Weird Al Now: 16 points @ 20/1 (FD, Sky) China Rock

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 ANTE-POST BOOK Paddy Power Gold Cup 15 points each way @ 25/1 The Sawyer (SP 25/1) unplaced -30 points Deficit Morgiana Hurdle 45 points @ 15/8 Solwhit 1^st (SP 11/10) Return 129.38 12 points @ 4/1 Donnas Palm 3^rd (57) 72.38 points Profit Hennessey Gognac Gold Cup 23 points @ 8/1 Weird Al (current best price (BP) 6/1) 16 points @ 20/1 China Rock (BP 16/1) King George VI Chase 27 points @ 14/1 Imperial Commander (BP 13/2 one place Corals) Supreme Novices Hurdle 16 points @ 16/1 Cue Card (BP 3/1 one place Ladbrokes) Lay 18 points @ 2.8/1 Cue Card (effectively losing 50.4 from my potential winning profit of 256 points) Champion Hurdle 30 points @ 5/1 Binocular (3/1) RSA Chase 27 points @ 8/1 Time For Rupert (7/1) Champion Chase 30 points @ 6/1 Master Minded (3/1) Triumph Hurdle 27 points @ 8/1 Sam Winner (11/2) Cheltenham Gold Cup 25 points @ 11/2 Imperial Commander (9/2) 13 points @ 5/1 Imperial Commander Total profit 42.38 points Included China Rock. Hope you got on at 20's. Imperial Commander, immediately after the Betfair was down to 4/1 in one place for the King George. Now out to over 14/1 on Betfair. Looks ominous for his prospects of running at Kempton.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Hope you didn't get on China Rock, now injured, non-runner.:sad

[BKI Punter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 IC's part-owner on Betfair said that the horse is long odds-on to miss Kempton, and will head straight to the GC if he does. I know the horse is best fresh but only 2 runs a year from the GC winner seems a bit ridiculous. Even if he does go to Aintree/Punchestown.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Judging by betfair BKI, that does not ring true. He's now shorter than he was this morning. Why should the horse be shortening if he's "long odds-on to miss Kempton"? Could it be an owner is over-playing an injury, to get a better price. Then say "he's made a much quicker recovery than we thought he would". Assistant trainer Carl lewellyn was quite optimistic yesterday. 2:10 Newbury 23 points @ 10/1 (b365) Sound Stage 19 points @ 10/1 (b365) Thetwincamdrift

[BKI Punter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Given that he said a while back he got stuck into 16/1 I think it was, I doubt it. Has been honest and up-front with everyone about the horse since before the GC. Let everyone know that IC and Khyber were in 'sparkling form' and would run huge races. Do think though that if he does miss the KG, and goes straight to Chelt, it'll be disappointing to see such a horse out only twice though.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 2:45 Newbury 18 points @ 10/1 (b365) Vagrant Emporer

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

2:45 Newbury 18 points @ 10/1 (b365) Vagrant Emporer

Two more: 17 points @ 14/1 (L) Nobby Kivambo 27 points @ 9/2 (PP) Full Of Joy

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 3:15 Newbury 17 points each way @ 12/1 (FD) Swincombe Rock