Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 If Forpaddytheplasterer runs to form Oh Crick has no chance. But will he? Has a good record at Cheltenham. Needed his first start last season. His class might pull him through, but the Runner-up habit looks temperament these days. Always opposable at short odds. Tataniano's Aintree form was the best of any novice. However, although he has won on soft ground that brilliant performance was on good ground and showed a top-of-the-ground action. May not be able to show the same level tomorrow. Another worth taking on at a short price on the ground. Oh Crick's form last term was in and out, very much like the stable. Now Kingy is in much better form. We know Oh Crick loves Cheltenham from the Grand Annual win. Hopefully it will be a good enough pace to bring his stamina in to play. Mahogany Blaze in all probability does not jump well enough or good enough to win a race loke this.

[fintron]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 good start with Midnight Chase :clap

[jtw1]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Just to echo Fin's comments , Great start Ginge :clap ps - Disappointed to see your profit drop in the 2nd half of the Flat , have you noticed this happening in previous seasons ? I always struggle after Royal Ascot , but as to why ..............:\

[Stevet1859]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Great stuff Ginge :clap

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 2:20 Cheltenham 27 points @ 6.4/1 Sanctuaire 11 points @ 29/1 Astracad

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Just to echo Fin's comments , Great start Ginge :clap ps - Disappointed to see your profit drop in the 2nd half of the Flat , have you noticed this happening in previous seasons ? I always struggle after Royal Ascot , but as to why ..............:\

Thanks Fin, Steve, Jtw. As I said on that thread Jtw: Didn't do that well at any "Festival" meeting, which is unusual. May be down to trying to work out too many races a day. Goodwood loss was awful. Studying, traveling 50 miles there, the crush of racegoers, staying for 6 races, driving 50 miles home and then studying for another 4 hours - takes it out of you. Especially when you've got diabetes. Studying when tired you are bound to make mistakes. Need to get fit. Might have cut too many corners. Bar the travelling, a similar story at other Festivals. Backing too many horses in races (too many savers). Need to concentrate on the ones with the biggest edge and cut out some of the marginal value bets. Even if this reduces strike rates. I've used savers in the past really as a way of keeping confidence levels up (more "winners"). Hasn't done the overall profit any good. Possibly need to stop betting earlier (off course), as some I backed at early odds had gone over the top on paddock inspection. Gone in their coats etc. The last jumping thread was the opposite, poor start and then much better finish. Think a lot of it is due to confidence and fitness, when things are going well, the brain tends to work the races out correctly. When tired or going through a poor run, it does effect how I work out "value". GT

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

2:20 Cheltenham 27 points @ 6.4/1 Sanctuaire 11 points @ 29/1 Astracad

Although Menorah has won on a soft surface, the Supreme was (unnoficially) good ground. Bit lucky there, AP not at his best on Get Me Out Of Here, left it too late. Possibly down to the last hurdle being significantly closer to the winning post than previous years. Though still might improve, looks poor value to me especially after Pricewise tipped it. His old rival Get Me Out Of Here "disappointed" on reappearance, but given a very easy introduction, "not knocked about at any stage". Should do better here and has more improvement in him. Thought I was going to back Manyriverstocross, but his price has contracted in recent days. Placed behind Get Me Out Of Here in Tote Gold Trophy. Did well to get back in to the race when almost brought down at the Festival. All this in a year Kingy had few winners. A lot of his horses have improved this term and Manyriverstocross may do the same. General Miller beat a possibly below par Menorah at Aintree, gets 4lbs here. From an in form yard. Disappointed at Punchestown soon afterwards. Not that consistent but has more improvement in him. Sanctuaire is off a 20lb higher mark than the Fred Winter "stroll". Disappointed at Aintree, but may be best fresh. Apparently shows a bit of temperament at home. Done nothing wrong on course. Has plenty of scope for further improvement and could develop in to a Champion Hurdle horse. Don't see why he is not favourite. Backed Orsippus at Aintree at a massive price when beating Sanctuaire. But he is small and may not train on this season. Disappointed on reappearance. Any Given Day improved enormously last time (2m4f), May struggle for speed here, although his price allows for that.. Olofi ran well enough on reappearance. Gives the impression may do better over further. Well thought of by connections and well backed at the Festival last year. Sure Josie Sue has potenial, very progressive at a lower level. Astracad has fitness on his side and improving rapidly. Won a conditional jockeys handicap with some ease here at the last meeting. Improvement has come on "better ground", but it may be more down to improved jumping than going. If there are Champion Hurdle class animals here will struggle, but looks over-priced. To be continued...

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 1:55 Cheltenham 20 Any Currency 2^nd 19 @ 9/1 Midnight Chase 1^st Return 190 points :nana 6 Ogee 5 Character Building 3 From Dawn To Dusk (53) Satisfying result, two main bets fought out the finish (9/1 and 10/1). Both well backed in to 8/1 and 6/1 respectively. Midnight Chase probably has not stopped improving yet, but needs to jump better to be a Grand National winner (imo). Any Currency put in a strange round, travelling well for a large part of the race before coming under pressure some way out and staying on strongly. May be 3 1/2 miles or more might help. Character Building is too inconsistent now, to be a good betting proposition. Ogee could not handle these big fences / big weight (small horse). 137 points profit 2:35 Cheltenham 30 (15ew) The Sawyer 17 Sunnyhillboy 20 Mad Max 4^th 8 Gwanako 3 Finger On The Pulse 9 Great Endeavour -87 points Deficit Poor race for me, The Sawyer should've been a win only, then the rain did not materialise and got sucked in to too many bets (again). Little Josh probably improved a bit, but pays a big compliment to Weird Al for the Hennessey. Dead heated with that one at Carlisle. Mad Max did not jump as well as he can (unable to lead). Long Run ran ok, though he too jumped untidy. Doubt if he will show full potential unless professionally ridden. Could be Cheltenham isn't his course, impressive at Kempton last year. Certainly did not need the race if paddock inspection is anything to go by. Winner seemed to go off at a good gallop, so looks no fluke. Big brute of a horse who may progression come hand in hand with jumping improvement. Dancing Tornado surprised me, made him a rank outsider; again his leap in form coming with jumping ability. Days Profit 50 points 1:45 Cheltenham 27 (20 win and 7 place) Oh Crick -27 points Deficit Well I did say be against both Tataniano and Forpaddytheplasterer, their prices taking out around 80% of the market. May be should've laid the two instead of backing the one. Isn't hindsight a wonderful thing? Got the value 10/1 (well backed in to 7/1) not that it did me any good. Oh Crick did not make mistakes, but lost time in the air jumping slowly. Ran poorly. Neither the front two ran to form, Forpaddytheplasterer getting in a paddy on the run in, 2^nd again, like a lot of plasterers in my experience. Not sure about Tataniano, possibly the going, might not be quite the horse I thought he was. Gauvain is another training feet by Nick Williams, top trainer. First run for the yard and after a long lay off. Though don't believe the form. 2:15 Punchestown 45 @ 15/8 Solwhit 1^st Return 129.38 points :nana 12 Donnas Palm 3^rd (57) 72.38 points profit Got 15/8 about a 5/4 winner (and 4/1 about 3/1 shot Donnas Palm). Solwhit looks likely to be the one to beat in Ireland's best hurdles, especially if Hurricane Fly remains fragile. 2:20 Cheltenham 27 Sanctuaire Fell 11 Astracad -38 points Deficit One I got wrong. Though Sanctuaire pulled too hard early and Astrabad blundered at the first. Menorah improved in to a Champion Hurdle prospect, though still has quite a bit of improvement to rival Binocular. Interesting Timeform rated Bothy exactly the same (at the weights) as Menorah, think both improved. Wonderful horse, tries his little heart out. Hope a good race comes his way. Think those who followed them home, Manyriverstocross, Olofi and Any Given Day might do better upped in trip, all could pick up a nice prizes this term. Days Profit 7.38 points Paddy Power meeting profit 57.38 points Total Deficit (incl -67 before this thread started) -9.62 points

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 ANTE-POST BOOK Paddy Power Gold Cup 15 points each way @ 25/1 The Sawyer (SP 25/1) unplaced -30 points Deficit Morgiana Hurdle 45 points @ 15/8 Solwhit 1^st (SP 11/10) Return 129.38 12 points @ 4/1 Donnas Palm 3^rd (57) 72.38 points Profit Hennessey Gognac Gold Cup 23 points @ 8/1 Weird Al (current best price (BP) 11/2) King George VI Chase 27 points @ 14/1 Imperial Commander (BP 10/1 one place Ladbrokes) Supreme Novices Hurdle 16 points @ 16/1 Cue Card (BP 3/1 one place Ladbrokes) Champion Hurdle 30 points @ 5/1 Binocular (3/1) RSA Chase 27 points @ 8/1 Time For Rupert (8/1) Champion Chase 30 points @ 6/1 Master Minded (11/2 one place Stan James) Triumph Hurdle 27 points @ 8/1 Sam Winner (7/1) Cheltenham Gold Cup 25 points @ 11/2 Imperial Commander (5/1) 13 points @ 5/1 Imperial Commander Total profit 42.38 points

[BKI Punter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Good start mate. :ok What did you make of Ghizao? I know he could be ground dependant but he came on for his first run massively just like Nicholls said, and beat good horses easily. Think 12/1 is massive, given Loosen My Load has been matched at as short as 9/1 on Betfair for the Arkle and have taken it myself.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 I was impressed with Ghizao BKI, although Loosen My Load was very much over-rated. The Irish chaser's position in the betting (imo) more to do with his stable's Sizing Europe winning last years race, than LML's form. Ghizao deserves to be favourite for the Arkle and in other years 12/1 would look a fair price. However, Nicholls has at least three horses prominent in the betting for the Arkle (Royal Charm and Celestial Halo). I wish this new Jewson 2m4f conditions novice chase did not exist, it allows trainers to avoid the best horses and degrades both Arkle and RSA. Previous winners My Way De Solzen and Tidal Bay would probably not have taken part in the Arkle. Nicholls will probably have to juggle his pack. No certainty Ghizao will run in the race, even if he is the best 2 miler at the time. :spank

[BKI Punter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Agree with LML being completely overrated. Royal Charm has drifted since Ghizao's win (17 out to 23) so I'm not sure if that tells us anything? Definitely think Celestial will be upped in trip. Having this new chase is going to be a pain ante-post wise, though. :\

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Supreme Novices Hurdle 16 points @ 16/1 (WH) Cue Card

Supreme Novices Hurdle LAY 18 points @ 2.8/1 Cue Card (losing 50.40 for a no lose situation)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

ANTE-POST BOOK Paddy Power Gold Cup 15 points each way @ 25/1 The Sawyer (SP 25/1) unplaced -30 points Deficit Morgiana Hurdle 45 points @ 15/8 Solwhit 1^st (SP 11/10) Return 129.38 12 points @ 4/1 Donnas Palm 3^rd (57) 72.38 points Profit Hennessey Gognac Gold Cup 23 points @ 8/1 Weird Al (current best price (BP) 11/2) King George VI Chase 27 points @ 14/1 Imperial Commander (BP 10/1 one place Ladbrokes) Supreme Novices Hurdle 16 points @ 16/1 Cue Card (BP 3/1 one place Ladbrokes) Lay 18 points @ 2.8/1 Cue Card (effectively losing 50.4 from my potential winning profit of 256 points) Champion Hurdle 30 points @ 5/1 Binocular (3/1) RSA Chase 27 points @ 8/1 Time For Rupert (8/1) Champion Chase 30 points @ 6/1 Master Minded (11/2 one place Stan James) Triumph Hurdle 27 points @ 8/1 Sam Winner (13/2 in one place Stan James) Cheltenham Gold Cup 25 points @ 11/2 Imperial Commander (5/1) 13 points @ 5/1 Imperial Commander Total profit 42.38 points

Now included lay of Cue Card. Sam Winner been backed this morning, 13/2 now best price with Stan James.

[Trotter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Hey Ginge.......... Caught your e-mail to Hugh Taylor on ATR ! Gingertipster - As Seen On TV !...............:tongue2

[TheRat]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Hey Ginge.......... Caught your e-mail to Hugh Taylor on ATR ! Gingertipster - As Seen On TV !...............:tongue2

Was just about to say this. Relentless with your value :lol

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 I sent an e-mail to Hugh Taylor last week, asking about why the media did not talk about percentages? Was that the one Trotter/Rat? Missed it. They must have held it over to this week if so. If pundits would say "he's 7/4, but I don't believe he has a better than 36% chance of winning". Or "I believe he has a better than 11% chance of winning and therefore 8/1 is a good value bet". - Then punters will understand more about how to bet-. What was the reply from Hugh Taylor? Others have their moments, but Hugh and Sean Boyce are the two on ATR that (imo) know what they are talking about. Did they read it out as coming from "Gingertipster"? :lol

[TheRat]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 He said Mark who posts on TRF

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 :rollin What was the answer Rat?

[TheRat]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 To be honest I was busy at the time but overheard that bit which made me think of you

[Trotter]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 yes..........that was the one, ginge........ he said he knew which 'Mark' it was as he was a poster on TRF who regularly raised the same issue ! :lol The answer was a bit non commital, he seemed to say that punters were used to the traditional odds and percentages might just confuse people !

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 That seems to be the general media answer. As a lot of members will know, it is my pet hate. Once asked Tanya Stevenson why C4 don't explain the odds and percentages. She said their viewers were not intelligent enough to understand, or words to that effect. You'd think "punters pal" Big Mac would explain, but no.... Also asked Luke Harvey, who hadn't a clue what I was on about.:unsure Matt Chapman ditto. Sean Boyce said he was working on something - many years ago - nothing. Asked Bruce Millington (Racing Post Editor) why they only had the table on the Greyhound Results page? Without much of an explanation on how important it is. Did get a poorly made little piece on their website soon after my question, but nothing I've seen in the Racing Post. It's "on my to do list", it's been on his to do list for some time. Not normally so critical of the racing media, I think in general they do a wonderful job. Do though, sometimes wonder whether it suits the media to keep their readers/viewers in the dark. Because then all racing journos can give their opinion without accessing value. When you think how journalists criticise trainers for keeping a little bit of information about one horse to themselves. Yet something that should effect every bet a punter has - is swept under the carpet by journalists themselves. :@ Well, I've done my best as a carpet fitter to pull the thing from under them. ;)

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

ANTE-POST BOOK Paddy Power Gold Cup 15 points each way @ 25/1 The Sawyer (SP 25/1) unplaced -30 points Deficit Morgiana Hurdle 45 points @ 15/8 Solwhit 1^st (SP 11/10) Return 129.38 12 points @ 4/1 Donnas Palm 3^rd (57) 72.38 points Profit Hennessey Gognac Gold Cup 23 points @ 8/1 Weird Al (current best price (BP) 5/1) King George VI Chase 27 points @ 14/1 Imperial Commander (BP 10/1 one place Ladbrokes) Supreme Novices Hurdle 16 points @ 16/1 Cue Card (BP 3/1 one place Ladbrokes) Lay 18 points @ 2.8/1 Cue Card (effectively losing 50.4 from my potential winning profit of 256 points) Champion Hurdle 30 points @ 5/1 Binocular (3/1) RSA Chase 27 points @ 8/1 Time For Rupert (7/1) Champion Chase 30 points @ 6/1 Master Minded (11/2 one place Stan James) Triumph Hurdle 27 points @ 8/1 Sam Winner (6/1) Cheltenham Gold Cup 25 points @ 11/2 Imperial Commander (5/1) 13 points @ 5/1 Imperial Commander Total profit 42.38 points

Weird Al, Time For Rupert and Sam Winner all shortened up.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 3:25 Haydock 75 points @ 10/11 (WH) Imperial Commander Reasons to come.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Imperial Commander has an excellent record fresh. Stable is in good form. Some seem to think he needs Cheltenham, but Twister Star's second to Kauto in this race last year was at the time his best performance. Not certain What A Friend's form at Aintree is all it seems. Carruthers, Calgary Bay and Imperial Commander all had hard races at Cheltenham and probably below form at Liverpool. Carries head high in a finish and has had a breathing operation. Sometimes finds little in a finish. Nacarat jumped poorly behind What A Friend at Aintree. Charlie Hall win proves effectiveness going left-handed and may be fair value here. Planet Of Sound proved he stays 3m1f at Punchestown, but that was a slowly run race with several top horses there under-performing, including Denman and Cooldine. Obviously has potential, but just what he achieved remains to be seen. Hasn't always jumped fluently. Tidal Bay is a rogue these days, has ability but does not want to show it. Chief Dan George not good enough. Ditto Atouchbetweenacara. My main worry is that Nacarat, Imperial Commander and Planet Of Sound might take each other on and leave it to What A Friend. Do make Nacarat marginal value, but Imperial Commander's price gives the best edge. My 100% book: Imperial Commander 60% 4/6, What A Friend 15% 11/2, Nacarat 12.5% 7/1, Planet Of Sound 10.5% 17/2, Tidal Bay 1.75% 56/1, Chief Dan George 0.2% 500/1, Atouchbetweenacara 0.05% 2000/1.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 2:35 Ascot 29 points @ 4/1 (L) Silviniaco Conti 31 points @ 7/2 (b365) Karabak

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Zaynar might be back to his best here, after a break that probably freshened his mind up. However, the form of his last three starts last term makes him well worth taking on. Becoming increasingly temperamental, did not look willing at Aintree over a similar trip as today. Priced up on the form of this race 12 months earlier. There is no guarantee he will maintain superiority with Karabak who is 6 lbs better off for 6 lengths. Hopefully it will be a truly run race, as he needs a test at the trip. Good novice two seasons back, Karabak may yet be able to improve a bit with the resurgence of his stable. With Black Jack Blues, Restless Harry and Lough Derg in the race it should not be slowly run. Latter has a good record at Ascot, but seems on the downgrade of late. Restless Harry was a decent novice, but had plenty of racing, possibly more exposed than most novices and might need further to show his best. Black Jack Blues proved he stays this trip with a good second at Aintree last season. Progressive form up until going off too fast last time at Wincanton and run can be ignored. Worth keeping an eye on if a big price. Ashkazar ran well enough in the same Wincanton race, 4th behind Nearby. Possibly better at 2 miles and ability seems exposed. Penalty makes it harder too. Won In The Dark is a second division Irish hurdler, a place might be the best he can hope for. Silviniaco Conti is only just out of novices. Much improved last time at Chepstow, winning in the style of one who could make the grade in this grade. Beat the promising Captain Chris easily over a similar trip. Uneposed and improving. Backed both Karabak and Silvi - yes him. And now Black Jack Blues. My 100% book: Zaynar 34% 15/8, Karaback 26% 11/4, Silviniaco Conti 23% 100/30, Restless Harry 5.25% 18/1, Won In The Dark 3.75% 25/1, Ashkazar 3.5% 28/1, Lough Derg 2.25% 40/1, Black Jack Blues 2.25% 40/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 3 points @ 79/1 Black Jack Blues

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 3:10 Ascot 14 points each way 10/1 (SJ ¼ odds) Tatenen 10 points @ 3/1 (SJ) Woolcombe Folly

[Gingertipster]

Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Woolcombe Folly started well over fences before a fall at home which hospitalised Sam Thomas. Lost his confidence afterwards. The break has probably helped and may resume progression. Noble Allen won a race last time where all of his rivals blotted their copybook. Pickamus ran poorly on hurdling reappearance, but AP is an eye catching booking. Consigliere does not win enough races for a horse of his ability. Piraya ditto, looks of doubtful temperament. King Edmund is as consistent as they come, but that hasn't done his handicap mark any good. Cockney Trucker has potential, won on reappearance but over these fences needs to jump better than he usually does. Tatenen does not need to run to his best Nicholls form to be to win here. Now with Richard Rowe (still owned by the Stewarts). Promising third here on reappearance and should improve from that. Isn't the most consistent. Jumping is possibly best ridden prominently and there are other front/prominent runners in the race. But price makes it worth taking a chance.:hope My 100% book: Woolcombe Folly 28.75% 5/2, Noble Allen 14.5% 6/1, Cockney Trucker 14.5% 6/1, Tatenen 12.75% 7/1, King Edmund 10% 9/1, Pickamus 8.5% 11/1, Consigliere 8.5% 11/1, Piraya 2.5% 40/1