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Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 These three bets were done last year for this year. Supreme Novices Hurdle 16 points @ 16/1 (WH) Cue Card Champion Hurdle 30 points @ 5/1 (SJ) Binocular Champion Chase 30 points @ 6/1 (SJ, Sky) Master Minded 2:25 Down Royal 22 points @ 7/1 (b365) China Rock 3rd -44 points Just beaten for second by a horse I did not believe would stay (sizing Europe) 3:00 Down Royal 23 points @ 7/1 (T) Roberta Goldback 2nd 9 points @ 11/4 Pandorama (non-runner) -23 points With Pandorama a non-runner wish I'd made the selection each-way. Both bets one place out of profit. As I want to keep this thread the same as another forum, have already had the two races above, in effect starting this thread 67 points down. Total deficit 67 points Will include ante-post bets as they run, or not run as the case may be.

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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Free Tips From The Ginger Tipster: My way of betting is all about trying to get value, horses who's chance I believe is under-estimated by bookmakers. Whether an odds-on shot or outsider. Explanation of staking I used to bet in level stakes. But found it mattered less about whether my short priced selections won or lost. Everything depended on how many outsiders won. Obviously with level stakes a punter needs to win ten Even money chances to win the same as one 10/1 shot. It did not seem right so changed to betting to win the same amount. But this time it mattered less about the outsiders winning or losing. As I was losing much more on the shorties. Again it did not seem right. I wanted a staking plan that would enable me to put more on the shorties, as they by and large have a greater chance of winning. Yet win more on the outsiders, as - with less money risked - they deserve to win more money. It occurred to me that anything I believe has double the chance of winning should have double the stake. i.e. Anything I rate as a fair Even money shot (50% chance) gets 50 points staked, something I believe has a fair 3/1 (25%) chance gets 25 points staked, which in turn should have double the stake of one I believe has a fair 7/1 (12.5%) chance (rounded up) 13 points staked, and so on. Less money staked on the bigger prices, yet more money won. However, my stake should also take in to account the amount of value I believe is in the bet. i.e. Something thought to be a 20% (fair 4/1) chance, who is available at 6/1 (fair 14.3%) should have more stake than if the top price was only 5/1 (fair 16.7%). So points are added for amount of value in the bet. With my 20% chance available at 6/1 (14.3%). Difference being 5.7% (20 – 14.3 = 5.7). Multiplied by 3*. So 5.7 x 3 = 17.1. Rounded down (or up). So anything believed to be a 20% chance who is available at top price 6/1 gets 20 + 17 = 37 points @ 6/1 winning 222 points. Any 20% chance only available at top price 5/1 gets 30 points staked 20 – 16.7 = 3.3 x 3 = 9.9 so 20 + 10 = 30 points @ 5/1 winning 150 points. (* If I think a race is easy to work out it is 3 x the difference. If it's not quite so easy it is 2x the difference, if it is difficult to work out no bet). For each way bets It is 0.75 x the win only stake (EDIT NOW 0.67%) . So a 37 point win only bet @ 6/1 becomes 28 points each way @ 6/1. For anyone wanting a more conventional points staking plan: Divide all stakes by 10. Think of it as a 0 to around 6 (each way up to 4 ew) very occasionally up to 8 points win only. ie 37 points becomes 3.7 points, 40 points each way becomes 4 points each way. Obviously anyone following these bets should figure out how much 1 point should equal to them.

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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Morgiana Hurdle 45 points @ 15/8 (B365) Solwhit 12 points @ 4/1 (SJ) Donnas Palm Paddy Power Gold Cup 15 points each way @ 25/1 (L) The Sawyer Explanations.
Solwhit was the equal best hurdler in Ireland last season (with Hurricane Fly). Already has a win over Donnas Palm (first and second in Irish Champion. Solwhit had more in hand that day. Voler La Vedette won a mares listed race very easily on reappearance but had the form to do so. Possibly improved but only "possibly". Her price should in my opinion be around the same as Donnas Palm. Latter has also run well this term on reappearance (flat winner since), not needing to be at his best to hold Aitmatov. Ultra consistent and a toss up between him and Solwhit as the main bet. Sublimity is not as good as he was now a 10 year old. Difficult to see him winning. Unless they go slow which is possible. Speed is his forte where as the two selections (particularly Solwhit) like a test at the trip. Backing 2 horses in a 4 horse race may seem strange to some. But it is around 5/6 the two prices combined. Bookies are of differing opinions with top prices working out at below 100%. Make that "were", as 15/8 Solwhit has gone. :ok
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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 The Sawyer has always been a favourite of mine. Backed him at Cheltenham a couple of years ago and again last season. He loves the place. Also loves soft or heavy and forcast looks that way. Just wish it was in January, as wins usually come at that time of year. However, might be more down to the going that prevails that time of year than date. A spring heeled bold jumping front / prominent runner. Very reasonable reappearance in Haldon Gold Cup Exeter over an inadequate trip. At 10 years old so should not be getting any better, but exceptionally well handicapped on the 3rd in the Ascot Chase. 1 1/2 and 1 3/4 lengths behind Monet's Garden and Alberta's Run, ridden by a claimer unable to claim in Grade 1 that day. Possibly flattered, but even so looks worth backing at the price. Wanted to wait to back him on saturday, just in case a non-runner. Saw the 33/1 yesterday, but Hugh Taylor has tipped it up so needed to get on. EDIT: 25/1 now gone, probably down to Hugh Taylor rather than me.;)

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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Thanks BH

Make that "were"' date=' as 15/8 Solwhit has gone. :ok[/quote'] Now the saver's price has gone. Donnas Palm backed at 4/1 now top price 100/30. Solwhit backed at 15/8 now top price 13/8. At current prices I would not get involved. Took combined odds of 5/6, now top price less than 8/13. Of course one has to win to get paid out, but it is promising. ;) :drums
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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

These three bets were done last year for this year. Supreme Novices Hurdle 16 points @ 16/1 (WH) Cue Card Champion Hurdle 30 points @ 5/1 (SJ) Binocular Champion Chase 30 points @ 6/1 (SJ, Sky) Master Minded
Forgot another couple of bets from the other forum: Gold Cup 25 points @ 11/2 (Sportingbet) Imperial Commander 13 points @ 5/1 (b365) Imperial Commander King George 27 points @ 14/1 (Sportingbet) Imperial Commander
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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

RSA Chase 27 points @ 8/1 (b365) Time For Rupert
Analysis: TFR got closer to Big Buck's last year than any other horse. Second in the World (stayers) Hurdle and loves it there. If he were trained by Nicholls/Henderson and ridden by AP/BG/RW he'd be much shorter. Webber and Kennedy are both under-rated in their trades. Time For Rupert is built to make a better chaser and jumped well on debut today over an inadequate trip. The top rated hurdler to go chasing this season and can only improve with experience and distance. Looking at the other horses at the front of the betting: Mikael D'H is fragile and is yet to prove he stays, impressive at 2 1/2m in the 09 Sun Alliance Hurdle. Tell massini definitely stays but gets up tight at the races, said to have kicked out in the paddock. May not be suited by the Festival. Wymott is interesting, but Donald McCain might miss Chelters for Aintree. Fiveforthree is double bookmakers prices on Betfair, very fragile and probably won't make it. Wayward Prince could yet develop in to a good novice chaser, but was a long way below TFR's class over hurdles. Robinson Collonges and Avrika L are far from certain to be as good at 3 miles and as such might go for the new 2 1/2 mile race. In my opinion bookmakers have priced this race up as they've done in the past. But there is now a 2 1/2 mile conditions novice chase that will take a lot of horses away from the RSA. So any horse equally effective at the shorter distance (like Mikael D'H) might go for the easier race. Unlike some TFR is going to be better at 3m+ and is a virtual certainty to run if sound, and has been a fairly sound horse in the past.
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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Paddy Power Gold Cup 15 points each way @ 25/1 (L) The Sawyer
Oops! :( Expected rain failed to materialise, which is why The Sawyer has drifted. Times suggest it is no worse than good-soft. So.... 2:35 Cheltenham 17 points @ 14.5/1 Sunninghillboy 20 points @ 9/1 Mad Max 8 points @ 39/1 Gwanako 3 points @ 28/1 Finger On The Pulse
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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Hey Ginger :) As you may know, I too love the value betting style. However, I've started laying any selection where the odds drop below my calculated odds. Eg. if I give a team/horse/tomato a 2/1 shot at winning, I'll back it at 3/1 and then if it falls down to say, 3/2, I'll lay it off. Always. Assuming you're prediction is right (which you have to assume, really), laying it off produces the biggest long term profit AND significantly reduces the chance of hitting a bad losing streak. So yeah, do you do this? Just some food-for-thought really, I know a lot of punters are reluctant to lay off bets even if there is a massive drop bellow their predicted odds.

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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Sunnyhillboy got beaten by Great Endeavour at the Festival and is closely weighted with that horse, yet is a much bigger price. Richie McLernon was in the saddle that day too. Wish AP is on him, but would not be the price. Given plenty to do held up for a late run. Gwanako was 5th in the same Cheltenham handicap and runs well here. Not had the best of luck since. Better jumper than record suggests, fell last time when still going well. Good second at the Festival as a novice before winning over Grand National fences next time out. Not stable's first or second string, which is probably why he's been overlooked in the betting. Mad Max is probably the biggest horse in training, type to improve with age, as he fills his frame. Yet has an excellant record fresh. Would have gone close in the Arkle (proven at Chelters) without a bad mistake two out and then improved to win stepped up to this trip at Aintree. Trainer in marvellous form. Top class horse in the making. Finger On The Pulse won the Jewson here a couple of years ago and came back to that form to win on penultimate start. Tired late at 3 miles last time. AP is always a plus. Long Run looked top class as a novice. Excellant form in France before winning at Kempton in effortless fashion over Christmas. Then disappointed in the RSA chase. Probably failing to stay after pulling early on, ridden by owner's good amateur son (as today). Though it could be either being over the top for the season or not liking Cheltenham. Had been raced on flat tracks before then. Still has undoubted potential and maight be well handicapped. But he's priced up on what he might be. Might save on Great Endeavour if he gets any bigger. Jumped well when winning the Byrne Group Handicap here. Not over burdened for that success. Obviously likes Chelters and should go close. Can't work out why Catch Me is so short. Only third, below form on reappearance, yet has a good record fresh. Often jumps poorly and finds nothing off the bridle. True he was a very good hurdler, emphasis on was. Stable in cracking form, but I'd rather be against Catch Me.

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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Hey Ginger :) As you may know, I too love the value betting style. However, I've started laying any selection where the odds drop below my calculated odds. Eg. if I give a team/horse/tomato a 2/1 shot at winning, I'll back it at 3/1 and then if it falls down to say, 3/2, I'll lay it off. Always. Assuming you're prediction is right (which you have to assume, really), laying it off produces the biggest long term profit AND significantly reduces the chance of hitting a bad losing streak. So yeah, do you do this? Just some food-for-thought really, I know a lot of punters are reluctant to lay off bets even if there is a massive drop bellow their predicted odds.
Interesting. I tend to lay off bets only if it is way shorter than when I backed it. Will probably lay Cue Card off soon to be a bet to nothing. I've found in the past it has paid me to let most bets go and take the big win when it happens. Because as you say "assuming your prediction is right" the more I am right the more profit is made. But recently have thought about changing. Might do more of it this season Jenspm. :ok
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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

1:55 Cheltenham 20 points Any Currency 10/1 19 points Midnight Chase 9/1 6 points Ogee 10/1 5 points Charachter Building 10/1 Think bookmakers have under-estimated those at the head of the market. Analysis in the morning.
Not got a Racing Post this morning so taken the prices off of C4 Morning line "best prices". Please tell me if these prices were wrong compared to the Pricewise box. Analysis: Any Currency seemed to be eased prematurely when third in a 3m novice hurdle on reappearance. Known as a progressive staying chaser last year, 4th in 4 miler despite not jumping well, so has Cheltenham form. This seven year old from an in form yard has more improvement in him. Midnight Chase has gone up 9lbs for winning here last time. Improving fast, needs to prove he stays this trip, but wasn't stopping there. Equally effective on a soft surface as good last time. Ogee was a bit unlucky when making a mistake late on in the William Hill here in March, after jumping well otherwise. Stable in cracking form so should be fit for his reappearance. Excellent chance if staying this extra 3 ½ furlongs. Character Building lives up to his name. Does not win very often, but that is purely down to “character”. Pulls himself up in front like he did with Nina Carberry last time. Usually ridden by amateurs, AP might make the difference today. Character Building can sulk, but did manage to win at the Festival so “likes it here”. Of the others: Junior won a staying race on the flat for new connections (joined the David Pipe from Alan King), but is yet to show he stays this far over jumps. Bit of a dog, if still in the mood could challenge here. Has good placed efforts at Cheltenham. From Dawn To Dusk ran well to be placed behind Great Endeavour (2m5f) here before winning at Aintree (3m on good going). This trip on a stiff track on softer ground is not sure to suit, could run well if staying. Tricky Trickster has form claims, but is likely to have a campaign geared to the Grand National. Similar comments apply to Irish National winner Bluesea Cracker. May well be able to improve further this season, but does not have his favoured very soft ground. Ballyfitz often runs his best races in the early part of the year and looks well handicapped. Has run some good races here, but jumping usually lets him down. Stable mate Razor Royale gets the stable jockey. Won the Racing Post Chase and winner around here. However, seems more exposed now and may need his reappearance.
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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Oops! :( Expected rain failed to materialise, which is why The Sawyer has drifted. Times suggest it is no worse than good-soft. So.... 2:35 Cheltenham 17 points @ 14.5/1 Sunninghillboy 20 points @ 9/1 Mad Max 8 points @ 39/1 Gwanako 3 points @ 28/1 Finger On The Pulse 15 each way @ 25/1 The Sawyer
Another saver: 9 points @ 11/2 (Sportingbet) Great Endeavour
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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Not often do we see as impressive a juvenile as Sam Winner in such a good race this early in the season. Effortless to win by a street. French imports usually know their jobs more than British or Irish, but this horse is big and imposing already. Should continue to improve for a while yet and won't need to improve much to win an average Triumph hurdle.

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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011

Hennessey Newbury 23 points @ 8/1 (T) Weird Al
Dead heated with Paddy Power winner Little Josh, well and truly "franked" form. Looking in need of the race and over an inadequate trip (2m4f) at Carlisle, making a lot of ground up late as he stayed on well. Unbeaten over fences and looked a serious RSA chase horse before minor injury. Denman will be hard to beat if at his best, but isn't getting any younger. Although very genuine when racing, has given some trouble at start. Would not be a total surprise if refusing to start (a la Twist magic).
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