Gingertipster Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Analysis: As I said before Tocca Ferro won last time out, wanted to put him in the totetentofollow to win the Totesport Trophy; but he wasn't in the list. I was told about this horse on a stable visit to Emma Lavelle's in October. Would've won a lot easier had it not been for his tendency to idle badly which means hasn't been put up as much as might. An increase of 8 lbs for Ascot wasn't enough to stop him and only upped a further 6lbs to 141. Rapidly improving and with a turn of foot. The 10/1 is now only available with Sky. Salden Licht won an Exeter handicap by only 1 ½ lengths but it was impressive nevertheless. Now upped 10lbs to 152, but probably capable of much better. To win the Totesport you need something near the top level. Tocca Ferro and Salden Licht have entries in the Champion, which don't seem too far fetched. Both horses act well at Newbury and go on soft or good ground. Don't know if the MCR Hurdle one / two will make the trip, Mullins does not send many over the water, away from Cheltenham. Get Me Out Of Here should not be written off, took a hold in both starts this term and hasn't got home. If he settles, could go close to a repeat win. The Pipe stable have a good record in this race. His two Pipe horses Notus De La Tour and Ronaldo Des Mottes haven't been seen so far this season. Although can see them improving a little, you do usually need a bit more than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Victor Chandler Chase: 14 points each way @ 6/1 (b365) Mad Max (without Master Minded) 6 points each way @ 14/1 (b365) mad Max (with) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 3:30 Ascot 40 points @ 3/1 (SJ) Soldatino 10 points @ 7.2/1 (betfair) Sire Collonges 3 points @ 23/1 Sophie's Trophy 4 points @ 14/1 Shalone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Those two last bets Sophies and Shalone are on betfair and b365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Looking forward to seeing Soldatino but can't help thinking on form Shalone is way overpriced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Think Shalone will get outpaced Rat; but with so many front runners it may be too fast a pace, with those staying on from rear doing well. Back with more analysis in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Victor Chandler Chase: 14 points each way @ 6/1 (b365) Mad Max (without Master Minded) 6 points each way @ 14/1 (b365) Mad Max (with) 8 points each way @ 16/1 (VC) Tchico Polos (betting without) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 3:30 Ascot 11 points each way @ 12/1 (b365 1/4 odds) The Sawyer 24 points each way @ 13/2 (SJ) I'm A Legend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 2:25 Ascot analysis Master Minded is a fair price today @ 8/11, but there (imo) better value around. Has well over a stone in hand on the book. Should and hope he wins, as have him ante-post for Cheltenham. Nicholls is back in form now and Master Minded has won more than once in January. Hopefully he will get some room, as I feel he does not like being crowded. Mad Max has travelled well up with the pace in his two races this season at Cheltenham at around 2½ miles. Weakening late on, which suggests he did not stay. Even though he won the Manifesto at that trip. There he beat Somersby, but Hen's horse had a hard race at Cheltenham, reluctant to post and kicked at the start, probably below form. Mad Max had little else to beat and could improve today. Goes well on soft and usually jumps well; though does have a (good) conditional jockey who's unable to claim. Has won on right-handed courses, but improved since; nothing to say he does not act that way around. 14/1 betting with Master Minded and 6/1 without looked good each way bets, though prices now gone. Petit Robin is more worrying going right. Constantly losing ground at his fences in this race last year. Though I hear he wears a pricker in his mouth to try to solve the problem. Ran an excellent race first time out, well behind Master Minded at Cheltenham. No reason to improve as goes well fresh. I had Petit Robin having an equal chance as his stable companion and Somersby, though increased it slightly for the pricker. Somersby got outpaced at Cheltenham in both Tingle Creek and Arkle at the top of the hill. Ground is softer today, but Ascot is less stamina testing than Prestbury Park. Stable in poor form, but was when staying on third last time. Has some temperament, does not like going to post, but does nothing wrong in the race. Everything he's done suggests a greater test of stamina will suit. Prominent position might help in that respect, trainer is not known for changing riding plans. Gauvain has not got a chance on Tingle Creek form. However, trainer is in better form now. If you believe the Forpaddytheplasterer / Tataniano form, Gauvain is the value pick. But that race was strongly run and favoured Nick Williams horse's late surge (form suspect). Second is a perennial runner-up too, habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Kalahari king is the second best horse if going back far enough. Hasn't put up a good run since winning at Donny. Shadow of former self so far this term. Trainer is a bit more bullish today but I'd rather pass him over. I'm So Lucky is probably better on a sounder surface. Lot to make up on Tingle Creek form, though is better right-handed. Backed Crack Away Jack for the Arkle last season, but hasn't been seen in public for over a year with a leg injury. Undoubtedly still has potential, 4th in the Champion Hurdle and should be as good eventually in chases, if can be kept sound. Saw him in his box in October. Emma said he wasn't the easiest of patients, wanted to get on with things and was taken out on his own before dawn, dark settled him. At the time his trainer wasn't sure if he'd be ready for a prep before Cheltenham, so whether he's in top form first time is doubtful. Though she did add going to the Festival without a run would not worry her. Tchico Polos has a generally progressive profile and a bit more improvement would see him in with a chance against all bar his stable companion. Beaten 2¾ lengths by Cornus a couple of weeks ago on similar ground. Good pace suits him at this trip and is capable of going from the front. Needs to go this way around. Jockey is a bit of a negative, conditional unable to claim; but at around 16/1 (now 14/1) each way betting without Master Minded, looks over-priced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Victor Chandler Chase: 14 points each way @ 6/1 (b365) Mad Max (without Master Minded) 6 points each way @ 14/1 (b365) Mad Max (with) 8 points each way @ 16/1 (VC) Tchico Polos (without) Mistake in staking: A further: 5 points each way @ 14/1 (b365 1/4 odds) Tchico Polos (without) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 2:55 Ascot Think I might have worked this race out wrong. Backed Soldatino @ 3/1, now out to 9/2. And Sire Collonges @ 7/1, now out to 8/1. It is always difficult when trying to decide if horses are going to be fit first time out. With Soldatino, Notus De La Tour and Sire Collonges the three favourites without a run; it could be market support is saying the former and latter are not 100% and middle one is. However, it could still be a market / punters over reaction to the Pipe stable's / jockey's record in this / trainers words in the Racing Post / Morning Line. If Soldatino is to be a credible Champion Hurdle candidate he needs / should win this off a mark of 148. The Triumph is not the graveyard it once was before the inception of the Fred Winter Hurdle. Soldatino should be suited by the extra three furlongs, Cheltenham win all about stamina, staying on well to pick off the front running Barizan. Runner-up hasn't done much for the form, but third and fourth Alaivan and Carlito Brigante have. Reportedly is a little excitable at home, so should be fit enough today (hopefully). Sire Collonges won an Auteuil 2m1½ f conditions hurdle impressively by 5 lengths back in April for G Cherel on very soft ground. Now with Nicholls, the handicapper has a habit of letting in ex-French horses lightly. You'd think the Master Of Dicheat can improve him. Nice to see Walkon back, loved this horse as a juvenile, a real trier. Not badly in here, but doubt if he's 100%, only here because the easier conditions race at Haydock is off. Stable companion Shalone is interesting. Another having his first run of the season, unexposed, lightly raced but goes well fresh. Stays 2½ miles well and possible might get outpaced, however, there are at least 6 prominent runners here and some of those need to lead to show their best. It may be set up for a closer who stays on to win. Sophie's Trophy is an outsider with a squeak. Ran well with two races close together before. Last week second to Mille Chief when a long way clear of the rest. May well do even better at this trip if fully recovered. Notus De La Tour is the main danger. May have been kept back for the second half of the season. Quite high up in betting for the Totesport at Newbury. Market support suggests is fully fit for today. Unfortunately by the time I worked this race out his price had gone. My main bet in the Fred Winter, did well, staying on behind Sanctuaire under 11 st 9 lbs. This trip may be ideal. Disappointed in Anniversary at Aintree (winner Orsippius was behind him at Cheltenham) and not seen since. Has potential to improve and stable in good form. Frascati Park has a chance on form and been backed this morning, but Twister is in poor form at the moment. Best to see how his runners go earlier in the day. One of the front runners along with.... Lough Derg another. The old boy likes his own way in front, and not one for me despite his record at Ascot and stable form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 3:30 Ascot Breedsbreeze is the one they all have to beat. Good second to Tartak in the Peterborough looks better than it did at the time. With the winner going on to handicap success since. That was Breedsbreeze's first run for over a year and seemed to lose out for fitness late on. However, the betting is priced as if it was fitness. Tartak is one you never know how much he has up his sleeve. Nicholls has had a poor run recently, but seems to be back now, however, it's possible this one might bounce. Goes well right-handed and acts on the ground. I'm A Legend is a bit of a Wincanton specialist, but Ascot is fairly similar. Progressive this term for his brilliant young trainer. Ridden by an exceptional 7lb claimer. Second last time, had a long gap between him and the third. If the improvement continues will be difficult to keep out of the three. The Sawyer has an outstanding record in January, and won this last year. Usually a front runner, there are a couple of others who like to be up there. Ascot suits such tactics. Unable to lead and ran poorly in the Paddy Power last time when stable were in poor form, now a lot better. Goes well on soft ground and is another with a really good claimer on board. Piraya ran well here behind Woolcombe Folly and again at Newbury last time. Seems more consistent and from a stable in form. Has a chance, but probably too exposed. Edgebriar won a Cheltenham handicap early on in the season and has AP aboard today. Disappointed afterwards in Paddy Power and unraced since. If back to best has his chance. Mahogany Blaze ran well last time at Cheltenham behind Tartak. But inconsistent, doesn't win very often, sometimes makes mistakes and trainer out of form. Pickamus was travelling well before falling at the 11th last time. However, hasn't always found much under pressure. Glad to see Grandouet win for my ante-post portfolio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 2:45 Leopardstown 10 points each way @ 20/1 (FD) Thousand Stars 38 points @ 100/30 (SJ) Solwhit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Hurricane Fly is the probable winner, but the slow pace / test of speed of previous meetings against Solwhit exaggerates his superiority. IF connections of Solwhit have any sense whatsoever, they will make it a test today. At 100/30 Solwhit is over-priced. So too is Thousand Stars who improved out of all recognition in the spring of last year, in truly run races. If given that today could surprise some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Bit busy at the moment. Will do an up to date p/l towards the end of next week.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 3:35 Cheltenham 50 points @11/4 (Corals) Grands Crus 7 points @ 15/2 (FD) Organisateur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 I've backed Grands Crus for the Stayers Hurdle ante-post. I believe he is destined for the top. Massively impressive in his two handicap wins earlier in the year. Handicap form is often under-estimated when there is likely to be a good pace. With three prominent runners here in a large field, should be run at a fair pace. Long lay off since Haydock, but Master Scu can't wait to ride him again, won first time out this season too, so should be fit. Market rival Bensalem is another favourite of mine, but I have doubts about fitness. Ran a cracking race in Ireland at the end of last season. But came back with major problems and had to fight for his life. Whether he is straight for today remains to be seen. Trainer wondered whether he'd get back for March and the market may tell us more. Spirit River is interesting, lost his confidence over fences. Although seemed to me there might be more to it than that (possibly something physical after a fall first time). Certainly still has potential over hurdles after winning the Coral Hurdle here and tipped for the Stayers Hurdle by Pricewise; though he's not sure to stay. The saver is Organisateur who is also not sure to stay. Tried to barge the others out of the way at the last. Isn't the most straight-forward of horses and might be better going right-handed. However, he is the other horse in the field who is improving fast. Crystal Bonus is one with potential at a price and with AP aboard. But he isn't sure to stay either. Restless Harry is the other with a squeek. Given too much to do when my money was on him last time, despite usually being a prominent runner left Lough Derg too much rope. Doubt he's quite top class though. Working on the review / pl.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 2:30 Cheltenham 10 points each way @ 20/1 (SJ) Madison Du Berlais 4 points @ 7/1 (b365) The Tother One 3 points @ 9/1 (SJ) Neptunes Collonges Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 All of these have questions to answer. Punchestowns hasn't always found as much off the bridle as some. Travelled well on reappearance, but got beaten by Pride Of Dulcote. Possibly needed it, but looked pretty straight in the paddock. Hold up horse. Am going against Jimbo McGrath here, but I have some doubts about his stamina for this trip. Finished lame in the RSA, which is a valid excuse; but after injury, I am not sure he'll be as good. At around Evens he's worth opposing (imo), especially as he's not the one with the best form. That honour goes to the enigmatic Tidal Bay. Bags of ability but does not want to show it. Seemingly ran right up to his best in the Betfair last time when a close second to Imperial Commander. However, the race was set up for him. IC increased the pace in the back straight (too much so). TB could not / would not go with them and lost ground, but this helped him go the correct pace. Staying on past beaten horses in the closing stages. Far from certain to be suited by todays race. The Tother One's temperament isn't much better, he can down tools. Like he did with my money on him in the Spa. Needs to come from the back and lead late, as he pulls up in front. Ran well last time in the Hennessey, got outpaced before staying on again to be nearest at the finish. Doing best of those coming from rear (if you pardon the expression). Again, the run of this race may not suit him, but worth a saver. Neptunes Collonges fell in the Hennessey first start for some time. Then, next time ridden by a claimer, got left at the start (comaritively) and probably sulked. Usually a prominent runner. With AP on board today, should get away better and enjoy himself. If (big IF) back to his best, would be the one to beat here. Has been injured since his form, but worth a saver at the price. The main bet though is Madison Du Berlais. He hated it in the King George and looked reluctant. Though passed after the first and his claiming rider (unable to claim) could not get back to the front (sulked). Am convinced he's better from the front these days. This is his first chance for a while to lead / race prominently for a long time. As long as the two don't take each other on, might be able to surprise a few. At 20/1, worth an each way bet.:ok Betting three horses in a five horse race may seem strange to some. But the combined price is roughly equivalent to the second fav's price on its own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Watch out Big Buck's. :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Big Bucks will have pretty good competition this year. Punchestowns back over hurdles. Mourad. Grand Crus. And even Mikael D'Haguenet might come back hurdling after few tries over fences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Grands Crus won well today and you have great bet come March Ginge :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Thanks Steve, the good ante-post prices are mounting up. :hope Have not had a good start to the year. Here is the results and review up to date. Sorry, did not realise it had been that long since I did the last P/L. 3:20 Newbury This race has been included before in my results, just thought I'd review it. I was there, but did not see much of it due to fog. Big Buck's did not have to run to his best to win easily. It is good that he's showing less quirks these days. The idling not as bad these days and does not have the bad patch he used to show. Lough Derg given a lead at the start and flattered by his proximity to Big Bucks and Restless Harry should probably have beaten him for second kept closer. Duc De Regniere ran an awful race, may be he did not like the fog? Must have been beaten some way out. The one race we could see a little more of than the others was the juvenile. Grandouet impressive in beating his stable companion A Media Luz. So much so I backed it for the Triumph. 1:30 Cheltenham -10 Brooklyn Brownie -14 Richards Sundance 2nd -20 Buffalo Bob 4th -2 Dashing George -6 Officer De Reserve 3rd -8 Quhilimar -60 points deficit This was not to be my lucky day. With Alan King's stable going a lot better this year, Blazing Bailey showed form out of the blue. Going with all his old enthusiasm and could be named the winner some way out. An eleven length winner. Only nine years of age, seems to have been around forever. Now one of the favourites for the William hill. Had better form than this over hurdles and could defy a big rise. Nice to see him back, just a pity it was in this race. Had the second, third and fourth all covered! Richards Sundance came on for his reappearance, could not cope with the winner, but stayed on to be a good second. Officer De Reserve was placed in the Welsh National for Nicholls, stayed on at one pace for third. Buffalo Bob 4th, well backed, ? To 4/1, led until the last. Possibly did not stay this stiff 3 ¼ miles. Thought Brooklyn Brownie was going to be a big winner for me at one point. Encouraging run, going well for a long way, before weakening late on his first start since July. Dashing George is well handicapped on Irish form, but is yet to show it. Quhilimar did not want to know, running as though something was hurting, pulled up. 2:35 Cheltenham -38 Caroles Legacy 2nd -15 Mister McGoldrick -7 Hey Big Spender -60 points deficit Oh, what could have been, Caroles Legacy, in to 7/2 from ?, seemingly unlucky. Left in front when Pickamus fell. Idling in front, just finding that little bit extra to remain there, until Tartak came wide and late. Not having the opportunity to fight back. Tartak himself holds something back and it is difficult to know quite how much is left in the tank. Followed the Peterborough win, this time without my money on board. Jumping seems to be improving again (used to be a good lepper as a novice). Mahogany Blaze ran well in third, but is not a good enough jumper to rely on. Imsingingtheblues seemed to be going well two out. Appeared not to get home over this 2m5f, either that or temperament issues. Should not have backed Hey Big Spender, was a favourite of mine last season. Has jumped poorly this term and took a tired looking fall in the Hennessey. Showed had not recovered here, never going. Now Mister McGoldrick is such a genuine, likeable chap, he's even got a fan club. The old teenager ran with his usual gusto for a long way. However, with a factual cap on, have to admit he's probably on the downgrade now. Drop him a bit Mr Handicapper, please! Days Deficit -120 points Could've been so much better. 1:45 Chepstow -23 Maktu -3 Silver By Nature -3 Arbour Supreme -2 Bench warrant -2 Dashing George 9 ew @ 22/1 I'moncloudnine 3rd Return 58.5 points (51) 7.5 points profit Welsh National. Maktu was well backed, eventually starting favourite. From the small yard of Pat Murphy who sent out Supreme Glory to win this. Unfortunately, his conditional jockey could not hold him. Under restraint for much of the race and not having much left for the finish. Drop in trip or stronger handling might help him. Original favourite Synchronised went on the walk and I put a late half-saver on him (yes, a seventh horse backed). Sorry, after-timing. AP doing well, initially held up, made his ground out wide before the pace quickened. Jumped better than usual. Slow early pace possibly helping his jumping until the home straight. Took chances with the last two; not what you want in an Aintree Grand National candidate. Loves the mud and far from certain to like the Scottish National either, with his round, pounding action. Pace favoured prominent runners and Giles Cross very nearly made all. Doubtful whether he'll go on from this, possibly flattered. My main bet each way, I'moncloudnine did not jump as well as in the Becher. Yet still produced a good run. Tracked pace on the inner, but nothing left in the straight. Ballyfitz's better round of jumping again probably down to pace not putting much emphasis on that side of things. Silver By Nature hasn't hit top form yet this term, but neither has the stable and might do better once the winners come. Arbour Supreme was never going and Bench Warrant fell again, though was running a fair race at the time. I've given up on Dashing George now, could be his heart isn't in it any more. Hopefully connections will now retire Dream Alliance, hates the game these days. Last year's winner deserves a good retirement now. 2:20 Chepstow 28 ew @ 11/2 Prince De Beauchene 3rd Return 66.5 points (56) 6.5 points profit Prince De Beauchene another well backed, in to 3/1 from 11/2, did not jump that well. Beaten by a couple of Hobbs horses coming back to form after being dropped in the weights. Must have been money for both, as Gary Wiltshire was full of it! 3:15 Sandown -25 Imsingingtheblues -19 Oh Crick 3rd -8 Fiendish Flame -52 points deficit Disappointed the way Choc rode Oh Crick. He's a 2 miler who needs a good pace (test). Yet held up for a late run. Outpaced after the railway fences before staying on best of all. May be my pocket is talking. Came in to 9/1 from ? , at least it proves Oh Crick is still capable. Imsingingtheblues has looked a little temperamental at times and never going well, just a week on from Cheltenham. Very weak in the market, out to 8/1, probably should not have backed it. Fiendish Flame was well backed, in to 7/2, yet ran poorly, making mistakes. Winner Cornas, along with Oh Crick, paid a handsome compliment to Woolcombe Folly who beat them easily three weeks earlier. That one a definite Champion Chase candidate. Leo's Lucky Star ran his usual race, looking the most likely winner turning in before going backwards. Best to avoid him at anything other than big odds / possibly best fresh. Days Stakes 159 points, Days Return 125 points, Days Deficit -34 points Deficit despite two profitable races from three. 2:45 Kempton 20 ew @ 7/1 Overturn 2nd Return 55 points 15 @ 11/4 Binocular 1st Return 56.25 points (55) 56.25 points profit Satisfying race. Showing the sort of form and fluency of Binocular at his best. Much fitter than at Newbury and a change of tactics suiting him. Settled well racing prominently out wider than Overturn. The change of pace came he had all the others immediately in trouble, even Starluck. Binocular won an above average Champion Hurdle in good style last season; with Hurricane Fly, Peddlers Cross and Menorah around this year, it will probably require more to win. At this stage he's still the one to beat and my 5/1 looks a good bet now. His old rival Khyber Kim was in trouble some way out, held up. A right-handed sharp 2 miles might not have suited, but should have done better. Twister is never in good form at this time of the year, which may have something to do with this poor run. However, Khyber Kim already had two successes to his name before the end of December last year; so it is strange he'd been “intentionally absent until this. Was there a problem? Never looked to be travelling with his usual fluency. Pushed out to 33/1 for March. Needs to be better than ever to win there this year. Starluck as usual, travelled smoothly until Binocular went for home. The softer ground might not have suited him as well as last year, but kept on well enough (for him). There is a question about whether he truly stays two miles? Now entered in the Arkle. Sometimes horses stay further given the slower pace over fences. Overturn put up a good performance, attempting to make all. You would not have thought a 2 miles winner on the flat would be suited by a sharp track hurdling. But shows speed enough out in front. There could be more to come on a stiff track and probably only 33/1 because of his more illustrious stable / owner companion Peddlers Cross. There aren't many front-runners entered at Cheltenham. 3:00 Kempton -39 (betting with and without Kauto Star) Imperial Commander (Did not run) -26 (13 ew) Nacarat 4th 13 ew @ 14/1 Riverside Theatre 2nd Return 58.50 points (91) -32.5 points deficit A changing of the guard? As I said in my preview, there were signs of Kauto Star being on the downgrade, as most 11 year olds are. Reappearance win not within a stone of his best, and not an easy win. Also below form even before coming down at Cheltenham. Means it had been more than a year since running to form in the King George. This time did not travel or jump with the fluency that prevails when at the top of his game. In trouble before the bend. Criticism of AP was so wide of the mark. The run reminiscent of the Gold Cup when Ruby was on board. AP had to ask Kauto up for a long one two out, to have any chance of winning. However, it is still not absolutely certain the Star is over the hill. Some 11 year olds do come back fighting. This time of year is often the worst time of year for Dicheat. A 9% strike rate for the first half of January this year instead of a 3 year annual 24%, shows another possibility for the lack-lustre performance. I believe it is a combination of the two, probably capable of better than he showed here, yet passed his best. 10/1 or 9/1 looks fair odds for March. With Kauto Star below form, it was disappointing to say the least, Imperial Commander was absent. O.K. He might not be as good at Kempton, but only “might”. Taken out of the Boxing Day event when not recovering in time from a slight injury. Then not allowed in to the Jan 15th race when in A1 condition. In future, trainers will have to keep obviously ill horses in races, just in case the race is postponed. Not a good thing for punters. It was in the BHA's power to allow Imperial Commander to race, although all previous ante-post would have been void. Do we really believe that if the same thing were to happen to Kauto Star; going for a fifth King George, that he would not be allowed in? Surely we should have the best horses running in the best races whenever possible. My other ante-post bets, Nacarat and Riverside Theatre were put on expecting good ground on Boxing Day, their chance had diminished three weeks later on softer and as a result were available at longer odds on the day. Would've liked just the one bet on the day; Riverside Theatre each way. Anyway, back to the race. Long Run improved and is an above average winner. There must have been a terrific amount of work done at home. Fact he settled better enabled him to race prominently at 3 miles. Free in both Paddy Power (2½m) and RSA (3m) at Cheltenham, so they could not afford to race prominently. Being able to have a view of the front may have had something to do with his improved jumping display too; along with going right-handed and ear plugs. Two best runs now are at Kempton; best form (including in France) on a soft surface too. Whether Cheltenham will suit Long Run is doubtful. But forget Cheltenham. Amateur Sam Whaley-Cohen deserves plenty of credit for this ride, as do Henderson, jumping coach Yogi Breisner, and all involved. Stable companion Riverside Theatre improved quite a bit too, despite not jumping to his usual standard. Proved very well suited to the step up in trip. So much so would not be out of place in the Gold Cup. Though not bred for it (few Kings Theatre horses stay that far). Not even certain to run in the Ryanair according to his trainer, they have doubts about his effectiveness at Cheltenham. Evidence is sketchy, obviously goes well at Kempton. Outpaced over an inadequate trip in the Arkle before staying on best of all to be 5th. Might not have won as often left-handed, but ran his best races (at the time) at both Aintree and Punchestown; third to Hurricane Fly. Wherever he goes, will be interesting to see if more improvement is forthcoming. If you did not know his record, it seemed as if Nacarat would win on the turn for home. Yet Tom George's horse often finds less than anticipated. Unfortunately for my each way bet, faded quickly in to fourth. May be he did not quite stay the 3 miles on soft ground, but it was no different to when second in last years Racing Post Chase. Now been sent for a breathing operation. Planet Of Sound reportedly had a problem too. Though not good enough for a race like this. Madison Du Berlais seems a fraction of his former self, just like to see him allowed a soft lead one day. To me he resents being led. Albertas Run is another needing a view of the front. Kept wide, away from the other runners. Never looked comfortable after his fall in the Amlin. Is more of a Spring horse, but after this it is difficult to see him back to his best come March. Forpaddytheplasterer was stepped up to 3 miles, but never going. The Nightingale finished with the same fibrillating heart problem as Denman. Days Stakes 146 points, Days Return 169.75, Days Profit 23.75 points 3:15 Newbury -43 Flaming Gorge 2nd -26 Stoney Treasure 3rd -7 Quintero - 76 points deficit An annoying result. Could not see them getting beaten. A significant loss, with a 50/1 shot finishing in front. Peplum had some good hurdle form in Ireland, but hadn't shown much for present connections over larger obstacles. Flaming Gorge was friendless in the morning, walking out to 11/2 from 100/30. Bit edgy in the paddock, but ran well in the race; attempting to make all. Stoney Treasure came in for good support, 11/8 from 2/1, seemed to be going best until stumbling badly 3 out, possibly unlucky. 3:50 Newbury -17 Vamizi 3rd -3 The Rainbow Hunter 2nd 26 @ 5/6 Sona Sasta 1st Return 47.67 points (46) 1.67 points profit 1st, 2nd and 3rd, not in the right order for me. Sona Sasta winning fairly easily under a penalty, making all. There is more to come from him, particularly if going back the other way around. Jumped right-handed here and other form is at Taunton. The Rainbow Hunter in to 11/1 from 16.5/1, did well to get so close to a well handicapped horse. Vamizi 8/1 from 10/1, plodded on in a remote third, not able to lead. Days Stake 122, Days Return 47.67, Days Deficit -74.33 2:25 Ascot 14 ew @ 6/1 (without Master Minded) Mad Max 3rd Return 35 points 6 ew @ 14/1 (with Master Minded) Mad Max 3rd Return 27 points -26 (13 ew in two bets) Tchios Polos (66) -4 points deficit Master Minded had to fight harder than expected. In what was already a strongly run race, AP increased it even further and is probably better than distances indicate. A real two miler, pushed hard by Somersby (who is going to be better over further) as stamina came in to play. Time less than a second slower than standard on soft ground. Nicholls not in outstanding form either. I am happy with 6/1 for the Champion Chase and remains the one to beat at Cheltenham. Somersby undoubtedly showed improved form. A change of tactics to racing prominently and bigger test of stamina helping. By being up there from the start was in a better place than usual when outpaced. This performance puts him in with a chance of Champion Chase glory, however, this was over a slightly longer trip of 2m1f. Without the extra 220 yards would not have been anywhere near as close; though probably has more improvement in him. Hen and Terry are fixed in their ways and it seems as if the Ryanair is not the favoured option. He'd be favourite for that race given the chance. Mad Max got the third spot for my each way bet, 20 lengths behind. Came in for support, 8/1 from 14/1. Did not impress me with his future in mind. Seemingly shows an increasingly high head carriage and not the best finisher. Looks like a horse with a physical problem to me; had several wind ops in the past. Going in snatches as his rider seemed at pains to keep a prominent position. Stable companion Petit Robin sadly took a fall which did not look too bad at first; but looks to have finished his racing career. Going well at the time though too far out to know if he'd be involved in the finish. Kalahari King was hampered there, losing many lengths. Without it might have been third. Finishing well, some way behind the two principles. Encouraging and best run this season, needs to improve quite a bit to be a factor in his Cheltenham target. Entered in both Champion Chase (third last year in a poorer renewal than this season's race appears) and also Ryanair (should stay). My other each way bet Tchios Polos never recovered from a first fence blunder. Crack Away Jack was coming back from quite a bad injury, not much encouragement here, always behind. 2:55 Ascot -40 Soldatino -10 Sire Collonges -3 Sophies Trophy -4 Shalone -57 points deficit If I'd done Soldatino each way I would not have been too pleased with Geraghty's ride. Seemed to be going best of all turning in to the straight. Yet merely nudged out. Don't think he'd have threatened Tiger O'toole or Walkon (hampered two out as well); but might have threatened the others. Bit free to post and early in the race and not persevered with late, friendless in the market too 11/2 from 3/1. Always hard to judge whether a horse will be fit first time out, maybe he needed his reappearance a bit too. Make no mistake, he's better than this run makes him out to be. The race itself was run at a very fast pace. The winner slightly detached in last place most of the way, suited by the test of stamina at the trip. Showed improvement, but might be a bit flattered by the result. Walkon too was held up, though deserves plenty of credit in his first start since the Anniversary at Liverpool two seasons ago. Just run out of it. Should come on for the run and go close next time given time to recover. Like Soldatino, is in the Totesport, though Alan King also has Salden Licht for that race. Lough Derg ran a blinder again at Ascot. Possibly went for home too early. Only one of the first 7 to run anywhere near the pace. Can be rated even better than the result. Judging by market confidence, Notus De La Tour should not have needed his reappearance, never seemed to be going as well as fellow first time outers Walkon or Soldatino. May not have the same scope for improvement as those two. My other main bet Sire Collonges was having his first run in Britain. Did not jump that well and did not trouble the principles. No market confidence in him, possible he might come on for the run. Sophies Trophy was well backed, 12/1 from 23/1, beaten when falling 2 out after racing prominently. 3:30 Ascot -22 (11 ew) The Sawyer 24 ew @ 13/2 I'm A legend 2nd Return 55.2 points (70) -14.8 points deficit Just my luck, old rogue Tatenen decides to come back to form to win his first race since 2008. Andrew Thornton deserving credit for getting a good spin out of him. My main bet I'm A Legend, 11/2 from 13/2, travelled well for a long way, just beaten by a well handicapped horse. Just held on to second from the favourite Breedsbreeze, who did not jump well. Possibly be better with an established jockey rather than an apprentice. The Sawyer well backed 8/1 from 12/1, never looked likely to repeat last year's success, taken on up front. Days Stakes 193 points, Days Return 117.2 points, Days Deficit -75.8 points 2:45 Leopardstown -20 (10 ew) Thousand Stars 3rd -38 Solwhit 2nd -58 points Solwhit has been entered for the Stayers Hurdle. Certainly stays 2½ well, but also might wait for Aintree where he's past winner. Wasn't to pleased with Andrew Lynch. Solwhit has been beaten before by trying to do Hurricane Fly for pace, yet tracked his main rival. Not that I think it made any difference to the result in the end. Not helped by Hurricane Fly jumping slightly right-handed, hindering Solwhit's own jumping at times. Hurricane Fly won't be able to give away too much ground come March. Certainly a rival to the Brits and shows a good turn of foot against. Not managed to get to the Festival the last two years, so does not represent good value in that market yet. Could've done with the main bet not running so well, with Thousand Stars being each way and just two places on offer. Genuine horse, Thousand Stars ran as well as he's ever done, making the running until outpaced on the turn. Won the County last term, but is too exposed for handicaps now and judging by this not good enough in grade 1 company. Days Deficit -58 points 2:30 Cheltenham -20 (10ew) Madison Du Berlais -4 The Tother One 3 @ 9/1Neptunes Collonges 1st Return 30 points (27) 3 points profit As expected, the run of the race was against Tidal Bay. Temperament issues preventing him from giving his best. Finishing fast but all too late. Punchestowns does not seem the same horse since his injury. Could say I got the value. The Tother One in to 5/1 from 7/1, Madison Du Berlais 14/1 from 20/1 and Neptunes Collonges 11/2 from 9/1. However, bookies at Cheltenham were fleecing the punters; working to 115% in a 5 runner race. Not quite as good as the market moves sound. I chose the wrong main bet, if only I could've switched after they'd gone a yard! Worked the race out to back the prominent runners, and then Master Scu decides to hold up Madison. Makes you wonder if connections had another race in mind; were they after a drop in the handicap? At least it meant Neptunes Collonges got a soft lead (flattered) and I broke even on the race. Don't think Nicholls horse had to be near his best. 1 non-runner already out, no R4. 3:35 Cheltenham 50 points @ 11/4 Grands Crus 1st Return 187.5 points -7 Organisateur (57) 130.5 points profit Grands Crus did the biz in no uncertain terms. In to 2/1 from 11/4 and won in a canter. My 20/1 each way for the stayers looks good now. Can't believe how well he won. Taking a strong hold until around halfway, jumping really well and powered away down the hill. It wasn't the best Grade 2, but three who chased him home are rated reasonably. Thought my Festival bet was looking for the place money, even though still not as good as Big Buck's, now I've got a good chance of winning! Might lay the bet off closer to post time. Hopefully the two big guns will not frighten away the rest. A small field won't do Grand Crus's keenness any good. Bensalem travelled like the second best horse, weakening late and will probably come on for his reappearance. Would not be surprised to see him revert to fences for the William Hill at the Festival. Looking the winner when falling 2 out last year (don't I know it). Probably still well handicapped in that sphere if Alan King can get him back in top form. Organisateur ran poorly, 6/1 from 15/2, probably needs a right-handed track, though does not look straightforward. 2 non-runners were outsiders, no R4. Days Stakes 84 points, Days Return 217.5 points, Days Profit 133.5 points This post -204.88 points So many seconds and placed. Got to keep the faith. Gingers Jumpers Total Profit 290.32 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SIG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Never noticed this threat before - Will be watching with interest! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 I don't threaten anyone SIG. :lol I am a nice bloke really.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 ANTE-POST BOOK Paddy Power Gold Cup 15 points each way @ 25/1 The Sawyer (SP 25/1) unplaced -30 points Deficit Morgiana Hurdle 45 points @ 15/8 Solwhit 1st (SP 11/10) Return 129.38 12 points @ 4/1 Donnas Palm 3rd (57) 72.38 points Profit Hennessey Gognac Gold Cup 23 points @ 8/1 Weird Al (SP 6/1) Unplaced 16 points @ 20/1 China Rock (did not run) 8 points @ 8/1 Diamond Harry 1st (SP 6/1) Return 72 points (47) 25 points Profit on ante-post bets. Did have another couple of wagers on here (Carruthers and Hey Big Spender) on the day; as well as going in again on Diamond Harry @ 9/1 early prices (not on this thread). Diamond Harry better odds available early than my ante-post price, though backed in to 6/1 SP (Pricewise). King George VI Chase 27 points @ 14/1 Imperial Commander (Did Not Run) 12 points @ 6/1 Imperial Commander (Did Not Run) 13 points each way @ 14/1 Nacarat (SP 14/1) 4th 13 points each way @ 14/1 Riverside Theatre (SP 10/1) 2nd Return 58.5 points (91) -32.5 points Deficit Bit miffed with Kauto Star not winning, yet with the three week delay - Twister not allowed to run Imperial Commander. Going would have been good or good-soft on Boxing Day, softer ground today meant Nacarat was a doubtful stayer; and winner Long Run is probably better on soft/heavy. Had they returned stakes for ante-post bets (before 26th Dec) could even have taken a bigger price 16 or 18/1 Riverside Theatre available in places today. I was robbed. :sad Totesport Trophy 30 points @ 10/1 Tocca Ferro (Non-runner) 30 points @ 10/1 Salden Licht (9/1 Best Price now available at one place) A few days after backing Tocca Ferro he was down to 5/1, probably more down to Pricewise than my tipping! Then got injured. :( Salden Licht has come in slightly, but Kingy has a more fancied stablemate now in Walkon. Supreme Novices Hurdle 16 points @ 16/1 Cue Card (Best Price (BP) now available 5/2) Lay 18 points @ 2.8/1 Cue Card (effectively losing 50.4 from my potential winning profit of 256 points). Thankfully looks likely to take his chance in the Supreme Now. He's the best novice hurdler we've seen for some time.:ok Champion Hurdle 30 points @ 5/1 Binocular (BP 3/1) Doubt whether the 7/2 lasts long. EDIT: It didn't. RSA Chase 27 points @ 8/1 Time For Rupert (BP 5/2) Has a slight injury that prevented him running in the Argento. Possibly good job too, as he'd probably be going for the Gold Cup had he ran. Should be fit for the RSA. If he was trained by Nicholls or Henderson he'd be 7/4, not 5/2. Champion Chase 30 points @ 6/1 Master Minded (BP 5/2) 4 points @ 8/1 Woolcombe Folly (BP 7/1) If betting on todays prices would do Woolcombe Folly with a saver on Master Minded, but I am obviously very happy with my bet. MM 's Ascot performance was better than it seemed. Going for home too early in what was already a strongly run contest. Big Zeb disappointed slightly at the weekend. World (Stayers) Hurdle 11 points each way @ 20/1 Grand Crus (BP 11/4) I think Grand Crus will start second favourite. Well, I was right there! Remarkable run at the weekend has set me dreaming! Triumph Hurdle 27 points @ 8/1 Sam Winner (BP 12/1) :( 15 points @ 16/1 Grandouet (BP 7/1) No getting away from it, Sam Winner has not gone on since an impressive debut. May be he's not suited by very soft ground, but question marks about him now. Might be just "best fresh". Hopefully won't run again before March. Grandouet impressed me (from what I saw through the fog) at Newbury. The one race you could see further than a furlong. Should be helped by his fluent jumping. Both horses current prices still look value. Grandouet impressive since at Ascot and halved in price. Cheltenham Gold Cup 25 points @ 11/2 Imperial Commander (BP 7/2) 13 points @ 5/1 Imperial Commander Kauto Star looks as though he is on the downgrade; and Denman isn't getting any younger either. Long Run might be best on a flat track on softer than likely ground conditions in March. hopefully IC won't run beforehand, good record fresh. First three home in the Hennessey might be his closest rivals. Total profit 64.88 points Updated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 2:45 Leopardstown 10 points each way @ 20/1 (FD) Thousand Stars 38 points @ 100/30 (SJ) Solwhit Hurricane Fly is the probable winner, but the slow pace / test of speed of previous meetings against Solwhit exaggerates his superiority. IF connections of Solwhit have any sense whatsoever, they will make it a test today. At 100/30 Solwhit is over-priced. So too is Thousand Stars who improved out of all recognition in the spring of last year, in truly run races. If given that today could surprise some. 2:30 Cheltenham 10 points each way @ 20/1 (SJ) Madison Du Berlais 4 points @ 7/1 (b365) The Tother One 3 points @ 9/1 (SJ) Neptunes Collonges All of these have questions to answer. Punchestowns hasn't always found as much off the bridle as some. Travelled well on reappearance, but got beaten by Pride Of Dulcote. Possibly needed it, but looked pretty straight in the paddock. Hold up horse. Am going against Jimbo McGrath here, but I have some doubts about his stamina for this trip. Finished lame in the RSA, which is a valid excuse; but after injury, I am not sure he'll be as good. At around Evens he's worth opposing (imo), especially as he's not the one with the best form. That honour goes to the enigmatic Tidal Bay. Bags of ability but does not want to show it. Seemingly ran right up to his best in the Betfair last time when a close second to Imperial Commander. However, the race was set up for him. IC increased the pace in the back straight (too much so). TB could not / would not go with them and lost ground, but this helped him go the correct pace. Staying on past beaten horses in the closing stages. Far from certain to be suited by todays race. The Tother One's temperament isn't much better, he can down tools. Like he did with my money on him in the Spa. Needs to come from the back and lead late, as he pulls up in front. Ran well last time in the Hennessey, got outpaced before staying on again to be nearest at the finish. Doing best of those coming from rear (if you pardon the expression). Again, the run of this race may not suit him, but worth a saver. Neptunes Collonges fell in the Hennessey first start for some time. Then, next time ridden by a claimer, got left at the start (comaritively) and probably sulked. Usually a prominent runner. With AP on board today, should get away better and enjoy himself. If (big IF) back to his best, would be the one to beat here. Has been injured since his form, but worth a saver at the price. The main bet though is Madison Du Berlais. He hated it in the King George and looked reluctant. Though passed after the first and his claiming rider (unable to claim) could not get back to the front (sulked). Am convinced he's better from the front these days. This is his first chance for a while to lead / race prominently for a long time. As long as the two don't take each other on, might be able to surprise a few. At 20/1, worth an each way bet.:ok Betting three horses in a five horse race may seem strange to some. But the combined price is roughly equivalent to the second fav's price on its own. Ginge, something bothers me here, just wondered what your thoughts are on the above two examples, pretty similar races in class and field size. I get your quest for value and cant knock your figures at all but what doesnt lay comfortably with me is why you threw 58pts against Hurricane Fly when your opening line was 'Hurricane Fly is the probable winner', for me thats where its stops being a race to bet in (if you think HF is a poor price of course). You either have 90/40 on or dont bet surely? Now if you think HF is a false fav then fair enough, but you didnt, maybe a bad price thats all. In the second race you obvioulsy had doubts about the front two and were quite right in your assessment and looked elsewhere for a 'bit of value' and came out in front. I'm all for seeking a value price but when actually think the fav will win isnt it a wise move to swerve the race? There are plenty more, I know its all clever after the event but it doesnt change the fact of your bets in those races. You probaly read both races correct yet lost out? Maybe your heart ruled your head with Solwhit just a tad?;) Anyway, interesting stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Hurricane Fly is the probable winner, but the slow pace / test of speed of previous meetings against Solwhit exaggerates his superiority. IF connections of Solwhit have any sense whatsoever, they will make it a test today. At 100/30 Solwhit is over-priced. So too is Thousand Stars who improved out of all recognition in the spring of last year, in truly run races. If given that today could surprise some. BH, I worked the Irish Champion out as follows: Hurricane Fly 57% (slightly shorter than) 8/11 Which makes him a "probable winner" (better than 50%). So I did think Hurricane was a false price. Solwhit I made a 27% (fair) 11/4 and Thousand Stars 8% (fair) 12/1. So at odds available of 100/30 and 20/1, on my figures both horses were value and deserved to be backed. The stake on Thousand Stars is: My price percentage8%+ difference between my own (8) and price available percentage (5). 8 - 5 = 3 points X 3 = 9. Plus my price (8) = 17 points @ 20/1. However, I wanted an each way bet, as it was a good race for doing so. Dead 5 runner race with a short priced fav. So 17 points X 0.67 = 11.39 rounded down to 11 each way. 22 points all told. Solwhit was also a good price, despite having in my opinion less than half the chance of Hurricane Fly. 27 - 23 = 4 X 3 = 12 + 27 = 39. I did reduce stakes very slightly to 10 ew and 38 win. The other two I made Voler La Vedette a 6.5% 14/1 (almost) and Sublimity 1.5% 66/1. 57 + 27 + 8 + 6.5 + 1.5 = 100% Had Solwhit been ridden handily I believe he would've been closer to Hurricane Fly at the finish. Some punters do not like betting against an odds on horse. Which is fine, if that is what they want to do. But what if instead of the odds on shot @ say 8/13, what if there were three co favs in a race @ 7/2? Do you still back the 5/1 shot you fancy? The three 7/2 shot's combined chance is likely to be around 60% of winning. 7/2 fair odds = 22.2%, take a bookies mark up off that and 22.2 - 2.2 = 20% for each of the three favs. 20 x 3 = 60%. Where as one 8/13 is likely to have around a 60% chance. 8/13 fair odds would be 61.9%, take off a bookies mark up and you get a horse with around a 60% chance. So may I respond with another question. Why do you not back a horse when there is one 8/13 shot in the race? Yet do bet if there are three 7/2 shots? My 100% book dictated that Thousand Stars and Solwhit were both value, so good bets. Although in hindsight I wish I'd backed Thousand Stars and saved on Solwhit. There was a race yesterday with a similar look. Wish I'd worked the race out. As Golden Silver had not beaten Big Zeb in something like 5 attempts. Similar stat to Solwhit and Hurricane Fly. Yet Golden Silver seemed value to me. Golden Silver won. With the Argento, there were questions about every runner, the favs and outsiders. Even when ALL runners have question marks, I do sometimes back the fav, if it still comes out as a good value bet. In this race, the thing that made Madison and Neptunes value was more than anything, likely pace. Both usually being prominently riddden. Unfortunately the main bet failed in his job (dropped out). Each to his own and all that. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 So may I respond with another question. Why do you not back a horse when there is one 8/13 shot in the race? Yet do bet if there are three 7/2 shots? Thats irrelevant to the question i put, i just wanted to know why you backed against a horse that you said was the probable winner, you answered it, you only thought it had a 57% chance of winning:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SIG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 I don't threaten anyone SIG. :lol I am a nice bloke really.;) Yeah, typing in the dark isn't my strong point :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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