Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing

[bowles10]

I know its a bit early but surprised the flat boys haven't posted up anything early about Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on saturday as its the 1st leg of the autumn double 1st thing i am going to say is that the short favourite Nationalism from Gosdens stable is drawn low in stall 3 which doesnt look good at all on the trends which i hope to finish tomorrow night. Any early thoughts etc ?

[chris34]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing My only thought is to hold all bets they talk of a rather wet miserable day tomorrow after a dry day today ground could be key to my bets in this race at the moment trouble with this time of year!

[TheRat]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing You have to mental to be backing Nationalism at 4/1 or as low as 7/2 now after the draw. Without looking into the race too much Ransom Note looks the one to be on imo at 12s. Running well in good company, good draw and is a class above so many of these.

[bowles10]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing

You have to mental to be backing Nationalism at 4/1 or as low as 7/2 now after the draw. Without looking into the race too much Ransom Note looks the one to be on imo at 12s. Running well in good company, good draw and is a class above so many of these.

of the 16 runnings i am looking at, those drawn 11+ have won 15, the only winner drawn lower than 11 was a 100/1 winner for Elsworth a few years back pretty sure the horse will drift to at least 5's if anyone still wants to back it will be following the trends i think

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing Here is your winner, came 2nd in this race, and the danger is the Gosdon so called 2nd string with Hill's on top. Fill yur boots, all the cash from my winnings then get pumped on the Arc on sunday, Workforce & Planteur. Its going to be one of those weekends i can just feel it, dam i feel horny, i mean lucky. enjoy the race, http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,396570,00.html ELLIPTICAL & TAQLEED is your Danger.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing Two e/w against the field for me in the Cambridgeshire both available at 50's and paying 5 places & BOG. SMOKEY OAKEY something was amiss lto. Has a first time visor fitted if it can sweeten him up has a squeak will love the ground, well drawn & is on a fair mark has questions to answer but worth a dig at the price imo. The 3yo COLEPEPER has a squeak also. Trying trip for first time but giving the impression that it will suit and should get it on pedigree. Should turn the form on Tiger Reigns and Jock has a good record when on top. Massive price for the Sheikh owned runner!

[Monterosso]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing

Two e/w against the field for me in the Cambridgeshire both available at 50's and paying 5 places & BOG. SMOKEY OAKEY something was amiss lto. Has a first time visor fitted if it can sweeten him up has a squeak will love the ground' date= well drawn & is on a fair mark has questions to answer but worth a dig at the price imo.

I'm on that fella since last night, got 66/1 too. Best priced at 40's now. Reasoning to follow but I'm glad to notice I'm not the only one who thinks he has a squeak. I reckon he's still around double the price he should be.

[Tull]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing This is going to be one hell of a tricky race to solve. Trends might be the easiest way forward. Horses at big prices that have caught my eye are, Steele Tango, Taamer & Tiger Reigns. Steele Tango might warrant a further look, course form and 5lbs might help. If replicating the G3 race he won in 2009 he might be there or there abouts

[calculus]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing King Olav has won fresh twice in the past and whilst it is highly doubtful that he is classy enough to win a race like this, he is well drawn and with skybet paying e/w the first six places there's chance he can sneak a place at 100/1

[bowles10]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing from my trends thread 3.40 Newmarket Cambridgeshire The stats Top 4 finish LTO - 9 of last 12 winners & all but 3 of the last 29 winners!! 3 & 4yo's have won 23 of the last 29 races ignore horses aged 7 or over a strange stat that no 5yo has won for well over 30 years Lightly raced horses (9 of last 13 winners had ran less than 13 times) Weight - carry no more than 9st 5lbs Hold up horses are favoured 1st 6 in the betting - 8 of last 12 winners 12 of the last 16 winners have been aged 3 or 4 Last 16 runnings, horses drawn 11+ have won 15 of 16 Reducing the field I am not convinced by this race at all and with 35 runners very hard to call. The draw itself can take out 10 runners straight away drawn 1-10. Horses that weigh more than 9st 5lb take out another 5. Thats 15 gone now, leaving us 20. Take out 5 and 7yo's+ removes another 4 horses. Top 4 finish LTO takes out another 6 horses, leaving us 10 to take a look at: Proponent 6yo 1 win on g/soft 26 runs Elliptical 4yo 1 win on soft 16 runs Emirates dream 3yo 1 win on soft 7 runs Sandor 4yo no wins on soft 19 runs Absinthe 4yo 1 win on soft 8 runs High Twelve 3yo no wins on soft 9 runs Tagleed 3yo 2 wins on g/soft 3 runs Speed dating 4yo no wins on soft 17 runs Pires 6yo no wins on soft 23 runs Directorship 4yo no wins on soft 13 runs Conclusion so taking the ground into account and the lighter raced horses, i wil side with: Elliptical 16/1 >Bet365 Emirates Dream 14/1 >Hills Absinthe 12/1 >Hills Those are my final 3. 5pts ew on the 3.

[chris34]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing

I'm on that fella since last night' date=' got 66/1 too. Best priced at 40's now. Reasoning to follow but I'm glad to notice I'm not the only one who thinks he has a squeak. I reckon he's still around double the price he should be.[/quote'] Count me in too! Been a bit hit and miss recently but is more than capable and loves soft ground ;) Will give proper write up in the morning!

[Stevet1859]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing 3:40 Newmarket: Elliptical 2pts win 1pt place 16/1 Totesport (12345) Elliptical lines up here after running second to Forte dei Marmi at Newbury two weeks ago. That form looks solid and while Kieren Fallon rightly got all the attention that day on the winner, Elliptical was comfortably clear of the third Tempokea. That race at Newbury has been a stepping stone to several Cambridgeshire winners in the past and although this is a step back in distance, several previous winners have also won over a mile and a quarter, Elliptical has done that, albeit in a maiden. Elliptical has the profile of an improving horse and with a decent high draw, and proven course form he looks capable of going well.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing 15:40 Newmarket - The Cambridgeshire This really does look a mouth-watering handicap and many of these have claims. I could write about half the horses in the field and still maybe not find the winner but I am pretty confident I have picked out a horse that represents value and should stand in with a good chance of landing the race. Walter Swinburn's Absinthe has come on leaps and bounds so far in 2010 after running twice as a 2 year old in 2008 and three times as a 3 year old in 2009 without a win. He did notch up a few places in those 2 years including a very good half length 2nd to Hanoverian Baron last year (10f at Sandown in GS conditions) and that horse has since won three times and is now 20lbs higher than that win. He was not on the track too often as a 2 and 3 year old having only had 5 runs before this season. He also placed on his return in 2010 when he was 3/9 at Kempton over 10 furlongs. That was back in April and he returned to turf in August where he win a class four handicap off a mark of 79. That race was over 10 furlongs at Sandown in Good To Firm ground, the form of that race isn't the greatest, two have come out the race to win in handicap company since (3rd and 6th place) and one has went on to win a claimer (4th) which is nothing to shout home about. 18 days later Absinthe won another class four handicap, this time at Windsor over 10 furlongs and in soft ground. Won by 2 lenghts but the margin would have been more if he wasn't eased down. This was off a mark of 83 and he has been hit heavily for the win with a 9lb rise but the fact that there is certainly more to come from this horse then there is no reason why he won't be winning off this sort of mark. Whether that day is today or not is a different question but I believe this improving gelding has every chance in this race and he is in no way out of his depth in this race, especially when its clear that he is progressing well, but in a race with such a big field luck can play a big part in how the outcome pans out. 5 races on turf has resulted in 2 wins, a 2nd and two 3rds so its clear hes at his best on turf. Has won with cut in the ground so todays soft going will definitely suit him which is a plus. The fact he had just the one run in April before reappearing last month makes me believe that Walter Swinburn always had this race in mind for the horse and with two wins under his belt his plan may just unfold if his horse can win today. The drop in trip is my only concern about the horses chances as he has yet to even attempt the 9 furlong trip despite winning over 10 furlongs but surely the trainer wouldn't be running him in this race if he thought he wasn't going to get the trip. 1.5pts E/W Absinthe @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG - 1,2,3,4)

[Monterosso]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing I'll post this here incase people don't look at my thread. :beer 1:55 Newmarket - Blessed Biata - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (Bet365) Well bred 2 year old who is closely related to five winners including German 2,000 Guineas winners Dupont and Pacino. She made her debut at Kempton over 6f, it took her quite a while to get used to her new surroundings and she didn't get going until late on. She was held up near the rear of the field and wasn't really travelling, she was then under pressure 2f out but eventually started to eat up the ground from just outside the 1f marker to fly home late to grab 4th place. That wasn't the strongest of maidens by any means but her run was quite eye catching and she should certainly come on in leaps and bounds for having had that experience. This is certainly a huge jump up from that class 4 maiden but if she proves as classy as some of her relatives she could just outrun her price tag and ground that may be to her liking due to her sires record of producing some decent soft ground animals. This may be a complete shot in the dark but she's now stepped up to 7f and on the back of a good gallop her impressive stamina should kick in and hopefully she could run on for a place, her action gave me the impression that the soft ground may prove to be an ideal surface for her and she has a good draw in stall 14. This is a huge step up in class for Blessed Biata but I certainly expect she could be a decent sort next year and is worth keeping an eye on between now and then. She seems to have a good turn of foot and with an emphasis on stamina on the testing ground of a galloping track she may just have the ability to outrun her price tag in this big race. She's trained by the wonderful William Haggas who'd be prone to the odd big priced winner and I'd expect she'll be well primed for this after having her debut run 4 weeks ago. Haggas has a decent record at the course and Liam Jones takes the ride, he has a very impressive level stakes profit at this course and a good 14% strike rate and a 42% strike rate over this C&D, not that it really matters! He's a jockey I rate quite highly and if he can get this filly settled she could have an outside chance of grabbing a place. Together, from the AP O'Brien yard is certainly the one to beat but at 9/4 I think she's opposable despite her impressive run behind White Moonstone last time out, I also think she needs 1 mile at least and the drop back to 7f isn't ideal. I'm going to take a punt and back the Haggas filly at odds that are too big to me. She is a 16/1 shot in my book and should have a lot more to come. 40/1 is above and beyond what I'd expect to back her at and she's worth a small each way bet to cause a shock. Hopefully she doesn't come last. 2:25 Newmarket - Sir Reginald - 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365) One of the most exposed 2 year olds in this race with 6 career starts to daye but he certainly has some very good form lines. He was 2nd of 16 behind Elzaam on debut after being hampered at the start. Elzaam has since went on to place in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes when just a nose behind Strong Suit. He then flopped in the Group 2 July Stakes but it certainly reads as good form to me. My selection then got off the mark when winning a much easier maiden race at York despite running quite green but showed a good attitude in the process. His next race in Listed company is best passed over as they tried to make all with him but that failed badly and he finished well behind Al Aasifh on Good to Soft ground at Newbury over 6f. Sir Reginald then went on to come 3rd in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes when finishing 3 lengths behind Approve, he didn't get a clear run that day and flashed home late but his race was run by that stage but it was an impressive run none the less. That day he also finished ahead of the impressive Temple Meads who went on to win the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury. He ran a good race when 5th of 21 behind Wootton Bassett, he was possibly held too far off the pace that day and never got going until the final couple of furlongs, he pulled very hard throughout and that possibly cost him being even closer. It's still an impressive run on the face of it and a repetition of that run over this extra half furlong today should see him hit the place money at least. Sir Reginald finally got his step up in trip when upped to 7f for the Tattersalls Millions Auction Trophy over the same C&D as today. He was badly hampered 2 out that day when trying to make his move but he still ran on very well gaining about 8 places in the final couple of furlongs but he had already given the shock 50/1 winner I Love Me a lead too far. He was closing until the line but had no chance with the impressive winner. That race was run on the back of a fast gallop and he settled better than usual, he's very likely to get a similarly run race today and that may just play into his hands, all going well. He has a wonderful turn of foot and a good attitude and I think the 12/1 available is massive and much better value in comparison to Formonsia, who is the 5/1 favourite. Declan McDonagh gets the ride aboard my selection once again, he was on board last time out and he's a jockey I rate highly. He doesn't ride for Richard Fahey too often and has a 28% strike rate when doing so and a few more placed efforts. Fahey has a very poor record at this course and has never had a 2 year old winner here out of 19 runs but I think that could change if things don't happen to fast for this nice looking colt. He certainly has the gears and stamina to go very close so the only question is the ground. His only previous try on anything with cut in it was that Listed race at Newbury, he was well beaten that day but I believe it was the tactics used rather than the horses abilities and I'm willing to chance my arm with him once again. He's closely related to Henrik and he was a classy 2 year old who finished 1/2 a length behind the wonderful Dubawi and then went on to finish 3.5 lengths behind Motivator on soft ground in the Racing Post Trophy. If he has also inherited any of that soft ground ability from his dam he should handle conditions today and with a draw in stall 17 he's perfectly positioned to get a nice sit in behind. All in all the 12's look to big to me and he was 7/1 co-favourite with the Johnston horse State Opera but that one steps down in trip and I'm not convinced that's ideal. My selection is also a better price so I'm selecting him and he's worth a small each way bet. Cambridgeshire bets as posted here! (Click) (The Cambridgeshire Heritage Handicap) 3:40 Newmarket - Capponi - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (StanJames) Typical Mark Johnston improver who opened his account on debut over 1m at Lingfield and has since won 3 more times over a mile. He has won off mark of 89, 92 and 100, he's clearly improving at a rapid rate of knots and I wouldn't be surprised to see him add this race to his locker. He is lightly raced with only 7 career starts (4 wins) and could well have more to come. His only previous try over a trip this far was over 10f at Goodwood where he looked the likely winner a long way out but was outstayed, he hit 1.8 in running that day and really looked to have it in the bag but his stamina proved unable to cope with the demands of 10 furlongs and he is more suited to 1 mile. He gets 1 mile 1 furlong here today and I'm not 100% sure how that'll go for him in terms of staying but typically with Johnston horses I wouldn't be surprised if he went and outstayed them all! Capponi is well drawn in stall 31 of 35, and high draws should be favoured here and with lots of pace drawn around and about him he should certainly get a race run to suit here. It will be his first time he is tested on soft ground but there is indications in his breeding that it shouldn't be too much of a concern. His Sire was effective on soft ground and he has the action of a horse who may just appreciate a bit of cut. All going well that shouldn't bother him too much. Interestingly Johnny Murtagh takes the ride, he's an unbelievably good jockey and even better on a prominent horse, in my opinion. He doesn't ride for Johnston too often but still has a wonderful level stakes profit and a fine 18% strike rate, it jumps up to 28% when he's on board the Johnston 3 year olds. He should be an ideal jockey for Capponi and if he can get him settled in behind the leaders he might have a good chance of going close in one of the few Handicaps that Mark Johnston has never won. 3 year olds have a good record in the race too and he receives a handy 4lb weight allowance for his age. Johnston went close with Tartan Gigha in this race last year when he was edged out by a nose and finished in 2nd place. Hopefully he's out to gain revenge for that defeat and Capponi is certainly his best chance here. I think he has a very good chance and the price is too good to turn down. Small each way bet at tasty odds. Selection #2 I've also selected Smokey Oakey, he'll love the ground and despite not being in the best of form of late he certainly has enough abilities to go close here if feeling no ill effects of his pulling up last time out. His 4th place in the Lincoln back in March on soft ground suggested he still retains his ability on his day and he has everything ideal for himself today. He's well drawn in stall 30, the ground will be soft, there should be a good gallop to suit and he's very suited by this galloping track and has won over 1m 2f at this course which means his stamina should hold up here. Interestingly he's visored for the first time ever and that could well get him interested again. He gets on very well with Jimmy Quinn who's on board him today and he has won 3 times from 16 rides on him, including a win off 3lbs higher in the Lincoln in 2008. He's now 12lbs lower than when in the peak of his powers and whenever he turns up he's very dangerous. Everything is going for him and the 66/1 price that was available was far too big. He has now been backed in to 40/1 and is as low as 33's in places. I'd expect he'll go off even shorter and I had him as a 16/1 shot. He's worth a small each way bet at very tasty odds and he'll hopefully go well. Smokey Oakey - .5pts e/w @ 66/1(StanJames) 3:20 Redcar - Krypton Factor - 2pts @ 9/1 (StanJames) Highly progressive 2 year old from the Sir Mark Prescott yard, he has went from strength to strength this season since winning a maiden at Hamilton Park to contesting a Listed race, all in the space of 3 months. He has raced 9 times and is probably the most exposed out of this field but he's constantly improving and has went from an official rating of 76 to now being rated as a 99 animal. That's 23lbs worth of improvement and I don't think he's finished yet. He finished a neck behind Arctic Feeling last time out in a Listed contest over 5f at Ayr, he was just held off that day and ran on well suggesting this return to 6f is a positive. Conditions shouldn't be a problem today as the ground is currently Good (Good to Soft in places) which should be perfect for him. He has won with cut in the ground around the tricky track of Epsom and this flat surface at Redcar will suit him even more as he's a real speedball. He's tactically versatile and can be ridden to make all or held up in rear so I think whatever way they run this race it'll suit him but I think there should be a very fast gallop set which should play into his hands. He's constantly improving and there is certainly races of this nature in him in the not to distant future and hopefully he'll get his first Listed win today. Seb Sanders takes the ride once again and he has been on board Krypton Factor on 6 occasions, winning 3 times with 2 2nd places also. The other was his debut in which he ran poorly. Sanders is a brilliant jockey and he has a good 20% strike rate when riding this course for Sir Mark Prescott. Prescott's animals have been in fine form over the last couple of months and they usually do well at Redcar whenever he visits here. He has a good 20% strike rate at this course from 139 runners and hasn't visited this course too often in the last number of years so it's interesting that he brings 3 here today. My selection is not well in at the weights with the favourite, Ladies Are Forever but that filly hasn't been seen for over 3 months and the yard has been very quiet in recent months so I think she's certainly opposable at 3/1 despite only having to carry 7st 12lbs and being extremely well in at the weights. This is a tough race to call with there being 23 runners currently but I think the Prescott horse looks very good value at 9/1 and I had him priced up as 11/2 clear second favourite. He should hopefully run well and prove his undoubted ability and move on to better things in 2011. /Wall of text. ;)

[Tull]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing Max weight 9-5 (14/14), Maximum age 6YO (14/14), Drawn stall 10+ (13/14), won in last 4 races - unless C&D winner or 2nd twice in last 4 (14/14). Applying these to the field, ruling out those clearly unsuited by soft or who seem obviously unsuited by the track, trip or class leaves a short-list ofElliptical, Emirates Dream, Taqleed, Pires, & Credit Swap In addtion to Steele Tango (posted earlier) I will go with Steele Tango 0.5pts ew @ 25/1 Bet365 Taqleed 0.5pts ew @ 10/1 Bet365

[andyjkmak]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing 3.20 Redcar Millies Folly is an enormous price here but I have been follwing the stable for the last few weeks and they have been firing winners in at big prices. I backed one of them at 80/1 second a few weeks ago so I am willing to put a small stake e/w at the price. 1 Pt e/w 150 Ladbrokes

[godofhorses]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing 3.40 New (Cambridgeshire) - . I'm going on Start Right e.w. Mr F is sure that this has a big chance, yes! ground is a bit unknown but they are convinced this isn't a problem. We see Taqleed as a big danger, it may be wise to back them both e.way. I'ts a big field so keep the stakes to affordability levels.

[chris34]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing 3.00 Newmarket A closely matched group 1 for fillies and mares but my heart still lies with Strawberry Daiquiri who has done little wrong in 10 starts with 6 wins! Although she is still searching for her first group1 she has come up against strong opposition and run with plenty of credit when 4th last twice in group 1's only 3 lengths behind midday last time in the Nassau. True soft ground is an unknown although she has won on good/soft and that was over this course! Drops back in trip today which perhaps isnt ideal but is capable at the this trip aswell as further I feel 0.5pt e/w Strawberry daiquiri 6/1 sj 3.40 Newmarket The Cambridgeshire, gonna take 3 against the field! Smokey Oakey is a big price and probably rightly so he was pulled up last time when something was clearly amiss, he has been hard to win with since winning the Lincoln in 2008 at a group 3 the same year, signs of a revival looked likely when 4th in this years Lincoln but didnt build on that, but loves soft ground and if all is well he is handicapped to take a hand in this and if the first time visor makes any difference aswell! Drawn high also an advantage Also like Pendragon at a huge price, has continued to progress well in small handicaps all season and just beat another inform rivival in Northside Prince last time out, only 4lb higher today and could still be progressing will be interesting to see how he handles the big field and soft ground, has won several times at Southwell to suggest he should handle the ground. Low to middle draw is slightly off putting tho! And finally Absinthe is another I like, lightly raced and improving was an easy winner at Windsor on soft ground 40 days ago, up 9lb for that effort but was well clear of the remainder to suggest he could easily defy a rise at some point and ground conditions are no problem. Drawn high which looks to be an advantage on soft ground 0.25pt e/w Absinthe 11/1 vc 0.25pt e/w Smokey Oakey 40/1 vc 0.25pt e/w Pendragon 80/1 bet365 5.25 Newmarket Satwa Moon has become something of an arch enemy for me he has bags of ability but often gets going far too late, but the booking of Murtagh is eye catching and the yard are going well still. Only 1lb higher for latest effort at Goodwood over this trip on soft ground and first time blinkers are reach for today which could make a difference in the finish. 0.5pt e/w Satwa Moon 7/1 bet365 5.45 Redcar Bedloes Island shaped well on his reappearance after a long lay off when 3rd to Select Commitee and Captain Scooby who have both gone on to win again since, again up 2lb for that effort but should go well again on ideal ground and still lightly raced and open to further improvement and has run twice over CD winning a maiden and finishing 2nd in a handicap. 0.5pt e/w Bedloes Island

[punterpete]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing 1.55 Newarket Apace ew @ 33/1 Stan James Won her maiden on soft ground at Folketone. Dropped back in trip for nursey at Ascot and did not perform well. Goes back over 7 furlongs today and with ground conditions to her liking looks a big price for Sir Michael Stoute Ryan Moore combination. 3.20 Redcar Krypton Factor win @ 15/2 Paddy Power Very proggresive type for Sir Mark Prescott winning 5 of his 8 starts. Finished 2nd in a listed 5F event at Ayr last time out and came home in front of a few of todays rivals. Step back up to 6F today will suit and stable quite bullish about chances. 3.40 Newmarket Proponent ew @ 25/1 Coral Possibley still in the grip of the handicapper but does have course winning form. Last two efforts at York and Goodwood have been decent and step back up in trip my be just what he needs.

[Trotter]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing 3 big price EW shots.........at Newmarket 2.25 - Sadlers Risk - EW at 100/1 with extrabet.com (I've never heard of extrabet.com and I don't think it's on oddschecker, but I've started using 'Easyodds' for odds comparison, I think it's a much more user friendly site and doesn't crash my computer every time I try to load a page) Not a race I'd normally spend time on but I had to make selection for a comp on another forum and I need a 'Hail Mary' to get in contention....... I like the name - it's bt saddlers Wells and I'm assuming the 'Risk' means it's related to 'Risk Me' who was a fantastic soft ground miler. This horse probably needs a longer trip but if they go hell for leather, as is likely, he should be staying on up the hill past beaten horses. Had a nice introduction at Haydock on soft ground, held up, made late headway without threatening. 3.00 Lahaleeb - EW at 50/1 with Laddies This horse has won a Group One race in Canada and was a close up 2nd in the Irish 1000 gns last year on heavy ground It's a 'ground based selection' as she loves it soft Been a bit out of form and switched yards this year. The hope is that some nice soft ground will see her recapture her group one form. 3.40 Taameer - ew at 100/1 with Laddies Top weight and a terrible draw in stall 1 means the trends boys will be swerving this one ! On the plus side he's almost certainly a group race horse, has only had 4 career runs and ran a terrific race last time on his first trip to the track for 17 months. On the basis of 2 good runs at 2 he was favourite for the Sandown Classic trial in 2009 but ran disappointingly and wasn't seen again until Donny a couple of weeks ago On his reapperance he finished last but only beaten 4 lengths behind group race horses - Myplacelater, Wigmore Hall, Al Zir. - he was right with them till a furlong out when he faded, maybe through not being fully fit or not quite getting the 10 furlongs ? Back at 9F today and with that run under his belt I expect a Group 3 performance at least from him today. The danger is that there are other group horses lurking in the field with a stone less weight to carry.........but worth a small ew interest at 100/1

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing MOHEDIAN LADY 1.55 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Needs to improve to meet the favourite's standard, but has only had the 1 run and open to any amount of improvement. I also think she'll handle this soft ground better than most (Hurricane Run (IRE) — Amathia (IRE) (Darshaan (11.7f)), and that although she steps back a furlong, the soft ground should make it feel more like a 1 mile race. Kieren Fallon riding as well as ever and looks a solid each way bet at around the current 14/1 on the exchanges.

[Falbrav]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing KITHONIA 2.05 Epsom. 1 point win. Goes handicapping and gets in off a mark of 92, and although that would appear a couple of pounds too much, I think the fact it's soft ground today will make it appear 4lb better for her. Breeding points to her acting on this ground well enough and she handled it when winning on debut. Other runners have doubts over the ground, so mix that with being open to natural improvement anyway, she appears to stand out a bit at around the 5/1 mark (exchanges).

[fintron]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing Weekend trixie for me. Select Committee and Leslingtaylor firstly from Redcar. First named looks sure to go well in the sprint, holding his form well and has won here before. Versatile ground wise and can defy a modest rise, Captain Scooby the Danger, also in great form. Leslingtaylor returns from a long break but has gone well fresh before and looks off a great mark. Rated 131 ish over the sticks, only 75 or so on flat here, 15/2 with VC looks a great price. Circumvent can hopefully make a good day a great day by landing the Cambs. A group 3 winner only once raced in handicap, won over this undulations of the track and best on soft ground according to the trainer. The early prices look an insult.

[jones12345]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing

from my trends thread 3.40 Newmarket Cambridgeshire The stats Top 4 finish LTO - 9 of last 12 winners & all but 3 of the last 29 winners!! 3 & 4yo's have won 23 of the last 29 races ignore horses aged 7 or over a strange stat that no 5yo has won for well over 30 years Lightly raced horses (9 of last 13 winners had ran less than 13 times) Weight - carry no more than 9st 5lbs Hold up horses are favoured 1st 6 in the betting - 8 of last 12 winners 12 of the last 16 winners have been aged 3 or 4 Last 16 runnings, horses drawn 11+ have won 15 of 16 Reducing the field I am not convinced by this race at all and with 35 runners very hard to call. The draw itself can take out 10 runners straight away drawn 1-10. Horses that weigh more than 9st 5lb take out another 5. Thats 15 gone now, leaving us 20. Take out 5 and 7yo's+ removes another 4 horses. Top 4 finish LTO takes out another 6 horses, leaving us 10 to take a look at: Proponent 6yo 1 win on g/soft 26 runs Elliptical 4yo 1 win on soft 16 runs Emirates dream 3yo 1 win on soft 7 runs Sandor 4yo no wins on soft 19 runs Absinthe 4yo 1 win on soft 8 runs High Twelve 3yo no wins on soft 9 runs Tagleed 3yo 2 wins on g/soft 3 runs Speed dating 4yo no wins on soft 17 runs Pires 6yo no wins on soft 23 runs Directorship 4yo no wins on soft 13 runs Conclusion so taking the ground into account and the lighter raced horses, i wil side with: Elliptical 16/1 >Bet365 Emirates Dream 14/1 >Hills Absinthe 12/1 >Hills Those are my final 3. 5pts ew on the 3.

It just go's to show what a competitive race this one is when you have 10 choices left and obviously you cant back em all:ok:ok But im going for one on your list that you didnt choose and thats taqleed 3.40 newmarket taqleed 9/1 with most firms a very good price for me and a solid e/way chance. Fits the criteria really up and coming 3YO won on good/soft ground,lightly raced and john gosden as trained it for the race,another + is the horse looks like a mile and a quarter horse with the conditions today that could be very useful and a supposedly good high draw but only time will tell on that one :hope:hope:hope:hope

[stewartd14]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing 1.55 Newmarket ILLANDRANE This longshot for Ed Dunlop interests me in a race that isnt notorious for producing a classy winner, despite the prize money on offer due to the race conditions. Illandrane was well fancied on debut when dissapointing, leading me to believe he is obviously well thought of at home. Interesting that Soumillon is booked today also, and the 48.0 on offer at Betfair is interesting. 2 pts ew @ 40/1 Bet 365 1 pt win @ Betfair SP 2.25 Newmarket PISCO SOUR I am pretty convinced that soft ground is the key to this horse, being by Lemon Drop Kid - a soft ground sire. He will handle the ground better than most today, and comes into this race in good form after 2 wins at Southwell and Windsor. Both wins came in poor races, but he won them well, and I believe his maiden defeat can be put down to the ground. Back on soft today, I think he has live claims. 2 pts ew @ 20/1 Bet 365 1 pt win @ Betfair SP

[Spooner]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing Epsom 15:10 - Super Duplex LAY @ 4.3 Betfair Has to deal with a rise here and I think it could find him out. He won over the 9f here lto but stepping up extra three furlongs today. Has won his last two races but I feel others are better suited in this race.

[stewartd14]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing 3.40 Newmarket EMIRATES DREAM Been shown after the first couple of races to be perfectly drawn in 29, and I like this horse a lot here. Unexposed, and an improving type for Godolphin who do extremely well with their horses in handicaps. This horse has potential for a lot more, and will prove to be above hcap level in the future IMO. With that in mind, a perfect draw today, and likely to handle the ground, I think 14/1 is very fair. 2 pts ew @ 14/1 bet 365 1 pt win @ Betfair SP.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing Taken a small bit of 140 on BF on Colepepper. 4.15 NM don't bet very often in these type of races and don't usually bet on prices this short but i think WHISPER LOUISE 11/2 is a very decen 2yo. LTO got into lots of problems over the trip and still won. Up 3lb for that which ain't that much and ground should not be an issue. Only ride for Micky Fenton this afternoon.

[Tull]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing Gutted about Steele Tango and Credit Swap was on my trends shortlist as well:loon Would like to mention my last bet of the day Rosbay 6.15 @ Redcar (16's this morning) now 12/1 @ Bet365 Definitely needs soft ground, mark is now 2lbs lower than last win on soft if conditions suit will no doubt go close.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Saturday 2nd Oct Flat racing PINTURA 4.25 Epsom. Place Lay. This course won't suit in my opinion, as although he's consistent enough, these undulations shouldn't do him any favours. The trip and ground's fine and is consistent, so may go close, but the evens to place looks well worth laying with several live dangers.