andrewcalo

 to PL @rashers
 
Great first post  

@Tiffy I've followed you with the Huddersfield -1 corners. Great shout.
@StevieDay1983 I'm going to add Cardiff to a few accas. I have this weird dislike of Ipswich, I have absolutely no idea why!!!! 

What a tasty line-up of fixtures this weekend, from a neutral standpoint at least.

Staying away from United as it's stressing, being a United fan and putting money on them. They should keep a clean sheet vs Karanka's men and that game has U2.5 written all over it.
Sunderland vs Burnley another tight encounter that I expect Sunderland to nick, barely.
I don’t see much value in the other elite leagues so I will go big on EPL as I am going away for the weekend and want to come back to a fat payoff.


 
Everton – Hull


 
4th best defence at home vs Hull who have failed to score in 43% of their games (3rd worst).

Big Rom has never scored in 4 consecutive games but I am sure he will turn up, looking for another lucrative offer to take him away from Goodison after rejecting a contract extension.

Baines is back, providing a boost at the back; should allow 3-4-2-1 which means a clean sheet for me!


Everton win to nil @ 2.5


 
Bournemouth – Swansea

Both these teams are scoring and conceding for fun.

Bournemouth is leaky at the back and lack discipline in defence. Swansea is clawing their way out of relegation and Gylfi has hit a nice patch of form.

I predict goals in this one.

BTTS @ 1.55 lacks value so my pick for this is Over 2.5 @ 1.75

Swansea also has a very tempting price at 3.5


 
Stoke – Chelsea

Chelsea want to wrap this up ASAP and their quality speaks for itself. Moses out but any punter following EPL this season knows that Chelsea will score two and concede max 1 in this game.

Stoke did well against City in their last way game and picked up some form at home, notably holding Everton to a draw too.

I think Chelsea has too much depth compared to Everton and any one of their players can turn up.

Too much quality and their formation is stifling and penetrates teams that sit back.

Chelsea @ 1.615 is a steal.

Chelsea HT/FT @ 2.45 also great.


 
West Brom – Arsenal

Arsenal are undergoing their usual ‘start of the year pressure’ and this will be a must win for them, to get that weight off their shoulders.

West Brom is decent at home and Pulis’s sides always do decently at home but have conceded 1.21 goals on average per home game.

Arsenal has the highest BTTS % in the league, 77% away from home and has failed to score in only 8% of their games. They average 2.23 goals scored away.

An average of 67% of games between these two these season have gone O2.5.

Over 2.5 @ 1.833

BTTS and Arsenal win @ 3.4


 
West Ham – Leicester

The Hammers have lost their last 4 and won only 1 of last 6.

They have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches,

The Foxes seem to be on the up and up, bashing bookies left right and center over the past week.

Still, they are winless in their last 15 away games (!), failed to score in their last 4 away games and the odds reflect this.

These stats are contradicting and this game could very well go either way.

I will back Over 2.5 @ 1.833 as both teams will be out to win this.

West Ham to score from a set piece or Lanzini outside the box, Vardy to hit a counter and perhaps score one of the 29 chances he will get.


 
Spurs – Soton

Easy, Spurs win for me here. They are on fire and despite Kane being out, I am sure Son will slip in and keep the momentum going.

They are unmatchable at home.

Soton have scored 4 in each of their last two games despite losing to Swansea and West Ham before that. They are good at keeping U2.5 but I can’t see them putting up much of a defence. Gabbiadini has proven how deadly he is  but the prices exist for a reason and that is Spurs solid defence. Soton also have a great defence but I see Spurs scoring more than conceding

Over 2.5 @ 2.00, justified price for those interested

Spurs win @ 1.7 is a steal

Spurs win & O2.5 for me @ 2.625, small unit on this.


 
Man City – Liverpool

Arguably the game of the weekend and I see certain punters backing City.

I will back Liverpool here and the reason for this being that they are formidable against the top 6 and then drop points against mid-tier teams.

This is the type of game they thrive in, specifically Mane.

City will be tired from Monaco I reckon but will still put up a decent fight.

BTTS is likely here too and Sane/Aguero/Sterling are more than capable of nicking a goal vs Liverpool’s defence which is arguably their weak point.

Henderson out is a massive blow but Wijnaldum and Can have picked up their form recently.

I would expect Yaya Toure to make a cameo to provide the physicality in midfield and KDB should be looking to make amends for the terrible performance and Parc des Princes midweek.

BTTS @ 1.5

Liverpool & BTTS @ 6
 
 


Best of luck gentlemen.

Hi , 1st post 
Saturday fixtures :
The stand out game for me is Everton v Hull , i think this is the only fixture that looks a dead cert with Everton as winners. Looking at the other fixtures its hard to call any Home or Away winners. Although you could look at Chelsea away to Stoke. With Chelsea on form and Stoke being Stoke maybe go for the draw or double chance with Chelsea as a safer option.
Next i would be looking at Bournemouth v Swansea. Bournemouth struggling to find any real form but manage to score 1 goal a game at home and pretty much concede 2. Swansea managing to find the back of the net on their last 5 away matches i can see both teams scoring. If your risky maybe BTTS Swansea win.
Safe betting options :
 
3 Fold
Everton v Hull - Everton WIN
Stoke v Chelsea - Double Chance Draw or Chelsea 
Bournemouth v Swansea - BTTS 

I'll have a pint of whatever you're drinking!  

They have a small chance of beating AM overall, but I just can't see it. Monaco look a huge price to beat Dortmund away, they should never be 5.25!

you probably didn't have as many as me this season. it's getting near hundred mark 

@StevieDay1983 I think EPL has produced a really terrible card this week for 1X2 and AH markets. Bournemouth V Swansea, Palace V Watford, Sunderland V Burnley, West Ham V Leicester and Manchester City V Liverpool are all nightmare games to predict. I just don't seem to have a read on any of the games this week + ELO ratings aren't really helping due to what the fixture machine has produced - a lot of weird clashes.
One thing I will say is that markets just don't know how to price Palace atm. HW is odds on and this is just ridiculous. A draw is definitely possible for that game as both teams are similar in terms of attacking strength. Palace have the better defense imo but that maybe offset by the fact that all the pressure is on us and we often choke in our home games.
Maybe @andrewcalo and his Man U hating ways can find something here. Perhaps a saucy Middlesbrough -3 could be in the offing?!?!?!?!?

I am absolutely delighted Russell Slade has been sacked. He's the worst manager we have had. Tactically inept, doesn't pick any flair players that leaves you with no creativity whatsoever. We were 2 points adrift of safety on his arrival and we now find ourselves 13 points adrift. We all know the oweners SISU are the massive problem, but playing 11 players in their proper positions would help a bit!!  No optimism left for this season, optimistic we have brought in a decent manager (Mark Robins) for our League 2 campaign next season. 
My picks are:
- WOLVES:    Big win for Wolves to stay above the relegation zone against a very poor Rotherham side.
- TOTTENHAM -1:    I would imagine Pochetino (however you spell it!) will go very strong again like the last round. Tottenham's 4th consecutive Sunday game (1 Europa Cup game in between) with 1 more next Sunday too. 
- NEWCASTLE:   Massive game for Newcastle after Brigton's win last night. Newcastle to win to preserve the 3 point gap. 
- CELTIC:   Although Celtic are a massive 27 points clear at the top, they'll want to smash Rangers in the Old Firm Derby. A big gulf in class between the 2 teams. 
 

i am spoiled for choice this week. i think there are some good matches this weekend. let's hope i have picked the right ten. just for fun
everton - still have a chance of europa league and lukaku to get back on scoring and at home very strong
west ham - bournemouth concede too many and haven't won in a while, west ham looking better recently
cardiff -  i don't believe in zola project. he seems clueless and why is the management sticking with him
barnsley - they had tough run against some big opponents and ipswich can't win although are hard to beat...hmmm
newcastle - fulham conceded a lot but they will probably have a go but newcastle should come out on top and have beaten some good teams in recent weeks
morecambe - surely this is a type of game they should bag three points. i don't often like to get involved in when yeovil games i don't know much about them but i know they can frustrate teams with lots of draws...hmmm
exeter - accrington are still iffy in my opinion although have looked alright recently but exeter have a bit more class and play at home
doncaster - surely going to get back to winning again. they are leaders in division so no pressure
carlisle v cambridge - btts - both love to attack so no brainer
peterborough v oxford -  btts - both attacking teams and again easy decision
 
maybe i should swap morecambe, exeter, barnsley but i don't know. is it better option to maybe swap them with wigan, leeds, huddersfield?  what does everyone else think?
 
£10 returns £10.000
 

rostov win
lyon v roma draw
celta v krasnodar both teams to score
£25 returns £1000

I have been betting on Villa 3 games in a row now and hasn't been disappointed. But this time I will stay away. Huddersfield is on a completely different level than previous competition and stong at home. I will make a late decision about a bet on Huddersfield but 2.0 is not the odds I was hoping for. 
My best pick today is probably over 2,5 in Nottingham - Brentford at 1,8.  These are two offensive minded teams and both score and concede lots of goals. Nottingham need a win to stay clear of relegation zone and Brentford don't have much to lose. 
I will also try a double on Brighton och Sheffield (2,41). I think both teams are a level or two above their opponent and have a lot of motivation to win. Brighton should win easily and Sheffield 1-0, 2-0.

Good work mate, didn't get on it myself as I'm wary of Stoke's beach dwelling abilities
Real good performance from them tonight, very organised and assured, credit to Mark Hughes. Even Berahino looks to have cleaned up his act!

sorry for the off topic but he's from America and says he's NOT a fanboy loooool 
dude, you are at least 5000 kilometres away from Madrid. 

there is too much at stake for both teams. neither team can't afford to lose points especially hull but both will see it as winnable match. i can see both scoring but i'm definitely taking score draw here either 1-1 or 2-2

In game betting West Ham v Chelsea 
 Chelsea are away to West Ham on Monday night. Away games are tough to win, even for Chelsea.
 West Ham will be fired up for the game. Chelsea are at odds of 1.6 to win the game.
 What is your best BETTING strategy ?
 My feeling is to bet a game like this in-play. If Chelsea score the 1st goal they will probably drop down to 2.5 to 10 to win the game.
 Is knowing they are 1 goal up worth a .35 reduction in price ? I think the answer is YES ! 
 If West Ham score 1st you have the option not to get involved at all. You also get to see some of the action, and how both teams are playing, before you commit your money.    The in-play bet gives you far more flexibility with your bets !
    
Its a new strategy that I am trying. Won 6 bets in a row with it yesterday. England in the cricket, Spurs over Everton, Dustin Johnson in WGC, Marseille over Lorient, Las Palmas over Malaga and Inter over Cagliari. Much smaller odds, but a bigger chance of success.
You win less, but you win more often ...
Interested in any thoughts ...

 

A bit of a tame statistic there, Magic0024! Got anything better? 

i
it's just a matter of time before we crack the big money just gotta hang in there. some decent returns on singles but acca's not so good. hoping for better results tomorrow

Oh dear, I'm going to have to switch on the swear sensor I think!  

You know, cnut and fcuk looks soooooo much nicer.  

Thanks fcuk I'm not on your mailing list.  

Liverpool to win. Klopp is unbeaten in games against the top 6 sides this season, winning 4 and drawing 4. Wenger record against the top 6 is woeful. 2 wins out of 22 games since 2012.

All my analysis points to BTTS in the Liverpool v Arsenal game.
 
I have priced most of the major markets the same as the bookies so this is my only PL bet this weekend.

Hey, sorry, i just put my predictions here, won't go into any details this time, sorry... i'll do better tomorrow in PL an other leagues thread!
So a few single and one double:
> Liverpool-Arsenal: [email protected] combined with Man Utd win @1.25
> Leicester [email protected]
> WBA win @2.1  
> Watford-Southampton: [email protected]
> Stoke Win @1.9  
I'd love to back Everton catching a draw at Tottenham, but too risky. And not backing Swansea here, bad feeling about this game!
Good luck guys!
 

West Bromwich Albion V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.50 @ 1.769 (Matchbook)
Going to put my money where my mouth is as I believe my analysis of Palace is correct and we have turned a corner. Team news looks fine, competition for places is strong, morale is high. New personnel and change of module has bough about a seed change in Palace's play, we should not fear West Brom here.
As I've said before West Brom performances will not drop and they will still be on a mission. People will point to the fact that they have won 4 home games in a row but I do not like to support long winning sequences from teams outside the big 6 in EPL. All those home wins came against donk teams and although many on here still believe Palace are a donk team I no longer share that view due to recent events. Note how skybet have a West Brom win in their enhanced odds acca this weekend; they believe the selection is a potential banana skin.
Don't get me wrong, I think West Brom are a very solid outfit at this level, but I find it hard to envisage them outscoring Palace tommorow. Statistics and even recent history can't always give you a complete picture when it comes to making the right decision in betting. Markets aren't stupid, to make money you sometimes have to step out and be first to call something. I will put my money and credibility at risk by saying Palace have the momentum here.

I'm going to leave Hibs alone this weekend, had my fingers burnt the last 2 games. I think they'll win but something doesn't seem right at the moment and are too inconsistent to be trusted.
It's a difficult round of fixtures this week but I'll pick out 1 from each league.
Aston Villa have had a couple of good results lately against poor Rotherham. Villa win at 4/5.
Sheffield Utd are the best team in League 1 and can take the points at Rochdale who haven't won for 2 months. Sheff Utd win at 5/6.
High flying Exeter can beat a struggling Hartlepool. Exeter win at 5/6.
No real value to be had here but 3 solid wins I hope

i don't know why bookies are making southampton favorite. i am very happy to take watford, swansea, leicester in a treble. i would love to see middlesborough nick a narrow victory against stoke so i might consider a handicap on them. 

I am in no doubt he will sell, no desire or loyalty from these guys when the reality that the EPL dream is not as easy to achieve as once imagined.
Playing football manager with real clubs is a trend that overseas owners seem keen to try, until a long spell in the championship dims the optimism.
We have the same problem at Forest, but in our case sacking a manager every six months and starting again, is a consequence of being owned by people with no idea.
Laughable that the media chose to go after Cellino, they have quietened since he cleared most of the debt, appointed the right manager, and made the play-off a real possibility.