liquidglass

Common now, I think we should all know enough about this sport to agree that ranking does not necessirily determine outcome. In fact, it does not determine outcome which is why the bookies remain firmly in business. There are a good number of lowly ranked players who are more talented than a number of highly ranked players but just lack consistency. Also some are just lowly ranked because they kind of play the game part-time like Kyrgios who only shows up late in the season. In my opinion ranking only becomes distinctive in the top 10 and around the fringe. Anything outside that bracket referring to 20-100+ might just come down to player match-ups and who is better on the day. Every player is ranked provisionally in the tipsters head and that is why you would not expect an experienced tipster to allow the ranking number influence his judgement. I was quite shocked you made the statement above pertaining to how on earth a player ranked 45 could lose so badly to another ranked 170. Additionally we also know that not all matches end up as competitive as we expect them to. Some players just come disinterested and go ahead to tank. A few of them might cheat in betting influenced games while some might just be moody on the day and not feel like even being there. There are endless reasons which can easily explain why a lower ranked player can beat a higher ranked player in various scenarios.

I've cleaned up the thread somewhat, and I was particularly disappointed by some of @neilovan's word usage, plenty of stuff that doesn't really belong to a discussion, no matter how heated it might be. Let's keep the hatred down, please, and keep the picks coming.
Myself, I fancy Noskova (+1.5 sets) to beat Cornet at 1.73 with Unibet. Big game and Cornet can easily crack. Agree with @yogg.

I'm not betting on ranking.
My point is that on a 1 set shoot out, a much higher ranked player, with more experience, more proven (as opposed to potential) ability, who has won the 2nd set and has match momentum, and is serving 1st in the 3rd set should be able to make those advantage's count, and win the 3rd set, more often than losing it.

Common now, I think we should all know enough about this sport to agree that ranking does not necessirily determine outcome. In fact, it does not determine outcome which is why the bookies remain firmly in business. There are a good number of lowly ranked players who are more talented than a number of highly ranked players but just lack consistency. Also some are just lowly ranked because they kind of play the game part-time like Kyrgios who only shows up late in the season. In my opinion ranking only becomes distinctive in the top 10 and around the fringe. Anything outside that bracket referring to 20-100+ might just come down to player match-ups and who is better on the day. Every player is ranked provisionally in the tipsters head and that is why you would not expect an experienced tipster to allow the ranking number influence his judgement. I was quite shocked you made the statement above pertaining to how on earth a player ranked 45 could lose so badly to another ranked 170. Additionally we also know that not all matches end up as competitive as we expect them to. Some players just come disinterested and go ahead to tank. A few of them might cheat in betting influenced games while some might just be moody on the day and not feel like even being there. There are endless reasons which can easily explain why a lower ranked player can beat a higher ranked player in various scenarios.

Rybakina vs Jabeur
I think both have played confidently well throught this tournament and should come together to provide us the final that we expect. This certainly seems the right surface for Rybakina who has the sort of robust game to put anyone to the sword. I think her whole game found completeness in the last roundwhere she finally employed the ingredient that was always missing - Balls! This is what has stopped Karolina Pliskova from reaching the top - with a laid back game and indifferent attitude during the match. Whether Rybakina has fully overcome that aspect can still be open to question as this is a Wimbledon final. When on song I also feel that there is too much power and control behind the Rybakina shots to afford Jabeur any chance of slicing and dicing for profit. However trust Jabeur to capitalize to good effect if Rybakina slumps in error mode. In summary, considering that ranking points were cut out of Wimbledon and Russian and Belarusian players disqualified for no justifiable reason, I see that decision coming back to sting the organizers in the face with Rybakina skating to victory.  For a person that was born and resides in Moscow, I see her putting a fly in the ointment.  My verdict However will be Rybakina to win a set @ 4/9 Bet365. That should account for any mood swings within the match. Good luck all!!!

Everything about gambling in terms of what will happen during a match is delibrate and has all been comprehensively factored into the odds before the match. We see this when "market moves" transitions into "market forces". Every visual occurence in real time happens the way it does because it can not possibly have happened any other way. In other words everything happens deliberately to line up with an outcome that most certainly precedes the match before the first ball is struck. So I deem it complete rubbish for anyone to suggest that what a player did or did not do affected the outcome. The outcome is an invariable and is independent of whatever is tagged to it. I know that sounds confusingly deep. However it is a fact. It is the main reason why i do not entertain post-game explanations. This indulgence is brutal making no room for second best. You either get it right or wrong. It is that simple. Bookies do not entertain explanations and certainly do not pay out on nearly. I can defend this school of thought all day which is evidence based.

This is certainly a case of semantics. The default mode of reasoning should be that trends always precede outcome or rather that trends give birth to outcome. Of course, there will always be a number of trends presumably working at one time to seemingly validate the outcome which could end up being wrong. However there is always an authentic trend or trends running that must validate the outcome. Some trends have a weekly life span, some have monthly or yearly life span and in some cases would have predated the match in question for even more than a year. This clearly supports the notion that "Outcome" is always constant since it has to conform to the trend.

Everything that happens in real time is of no consequence to the outcome which is fixed. It is the reason why my mindset unlike many in this game, is always set on finding the outcome that I already know exists out there. I employ my inner man along with a few other diagnostic tools to reach safe conclusions in most cases. Training your inner man to instinctively know can be a job of so many years of continuous learning. I have brought a whole lot of people to unlearn.....and then relearn under my stewardship opening them to a whole lot of control within their persons.

Rybakina vs Jabeur
I think both have played confidently well throught this tournament and should come together to provide us the final that we expect. This certainly seems the right surface for Rybakina who has the sort of robust game to put anyone to the sword. I think her whole game found completeness in the last roundwhere she finally employed the ingredient that was always missing - Balls! This is what has stopped Karolina Pliskova from reaching the top - with a laid back game and indifferent attitude during the match. Whether Rybakina has fully overcome that aspect can still be open to question as this is a Wimbledon final. When on song I also feel that there is too much power and control behind the Rybakina shots to afford Jabeur any chance of slicing and dicing for profit. However trust Jabeur to capitalize to good effect if Rybakina slumps in error mode. In summary, considering that ranking points were cut out of Wimbledon and Russian and Belarusian players disqualified for no justifiable reason, I see that decision coming back to sting the organizers in the face with Rybakina skating to victory.  For a person that was born and resides in Moscow, I see her putting a fly in the ointment.  My verdict However will be Rybakina to win a set @ 4/9 Bet365. That should account for any mood swings within the match. Good luck all!!!

Everything about gambling in terms of what will happen during a match is delibrate and has all been comprehensively factored into the odds before the match. We see this when "market moves" transitions into "market forces". Every visual occurence in real time happens the way it does because it can not possibly have happened any other way. In other words everything happens deliberately to line up with an outcome that most certainly precedes the match before the first ball is struck. So I deem it complete rubbish for anyone to suggest that what a player did or did not do affected the outcome. The outcome is an invariable and is independent of whatever is tagged to it. I know that sounds confusingly deep. However it is a fact. It is the main reason why i do not entertain post-game explanations. This indulgence is brutal making no room for second best. You either get it right or wrong. It is that simple. Bookies do not entertain explanations and certainly do not pay out on nearly. I can defend this school of thought all day which is evidence based.

From my experience, it just does not seem the right way to go because that is where they want you to go. The bookies have carefully carved out this cul-de-sac which only offers one choice that will be followed thoughtlessy by many. I am not saying that it cannot happen, it is just that knowing that the bookies never really pay everybody, it will just be more disciplined to avoid the game totally or go over in total games with no particular winner picked. If you are brave enough on medium stakes Norrie to steal a set by gifted or hoodini means would seem reasonable.

@ Torque, Firstly I do not understand how this points system works which makes me want to ask how much a point is worth in terms of real money. I constantly see you re-backing pre-tournament favorites or strengthening your position as you would prefer to term it and wonder if you are really staking real money or just playing a private game of confidence boosting.

Secondly with due respect, I just see you to be constantly chasing on a daily basis with no solid belief behind the picks you put out. You just seem to be running a daily feel good blog within this forum where you just put out these recreational picks and then go into the ritual of providing a contigency explanation of why the picks did or did not do well. Left to me, I do not see the importance of the after-game postmortems as every game is different and should not be used to judge the next, unless of course it just aids you in the release of negative energy which consequently can have a domino effect on other readers. In fact, I think the most important requirement for successful tipping is to ensure that a person reboots their memory after viewing a previous match or previous matches to be able to achieve an unbiased analysis of the current matches in focus . When that is adhered to, you come to realise that every player performance no matter how seemingly convincing has limitations, and can only be used for the judgement of future matches to a certain extent.

Finally, I really cannot understand how you would constantly strengthen your position on two favorites that are in no way outstanding either in relation to the surface or the way this tournament has been unfolding and other hard to ignore circumstantial matters. Or is it because that is the only plausible reachable conclusion devoid of hard thinking? I am almost certain that Swiatek will not win this tournament while Djokovic while with major competition running alongside him coupled with the excess mental baggage remains very very iffy.

@ Torque, Firstly I do not understand how this points system works which makes me want to ask how much a point is worth in terms of real money. I constantly see you re-backing pre-tournament favorites or strengthening your position as you would prefer to term it and wonder if you are really staking real money or just playing a private game of confidence boosting.

Secondly with due respect, I just see you to be constantly chasing on a daily basis with no solid belief behind the picks you put out. You just seem to be running a daily feel good blog within this forum where you just put out these recreational picks and then go into the ritual of providing a contigency explanation of why the picks did or did not do well. Left to me, I do not see the importance of the after-game postmortems as every game is different and should not be used to judge the next, unless of course it just aids you in the release of negative energy which consequently can have a domino effect on other readers. In fact, I think the most important requirement for successful tipping is to ensure that a person reboots their memory after viewing a previous match or previous matches to be able to achieve an unbiased analysis of the current matches in focus . When that is adhered to, you come to realise that every player performance no matter how seemingly convincing has limitations, and can only be used for the judgement of future matches to a certain extent.

Finally, I really cannot understand how you would constantly strengthen your position on two favorites that are in no way outstanding either in relation to the surface or the way this tournament has been unfolding and other hard to ignore circumstantial matters. Or is it because that is the only plausible reachable conclusion devoid of hard thinking? I am almost certain that Swiatek will not win this tournament while Djokovic while with major competition running alongside him coupled with the excess mental baggage remains very very iffy.

@ Torque, Firstly I do not understand how this points system works which makes me want to ask how much a point is worth in terms of real money. I constantly see you re-backing pre-tournament favorites or strengthening your position as you would prefer to term it and wonder if you are really staking real money or just playing a private game of confidence boosting.

Secondly with due respect, I just see you to be constantly chasing on a daily basis with no solid belief behind the picks you put out. You just seem to be running a daily feel good blog within this forum where you just put out these recreational picks and then go into the ritual of providing a contigency explanation of why the picks did or did not do well. Left to me, I do not see the importance of the after-game postmortems as every game is different and should not be used to judge the next, unless of course it just aids you in the release of negative energy which consequently can have a domino effect on other readers. In fact, I think the most important requirement for successful tipping is to ensure that a person reboots their memory after viewing a previous match or previous matches to be able to achieve an unbiased analysis of the current matches in focus . When that is adhered to, you come to realise that every player performance no matter how seemingly convincing has limitations, and can only be used for the judgement of future matches to a certain extent.

Finally, I really cannot understand how you would constantly strengthen your position on two favorites that are in no way outstanding either in relation to the surface or the way this tournament has been unfolding and other hard to ignore circumstantial matters. Or is it because that is the only plausible reachable conclusion devoid of hard thinking? I am almost certain that Swiatek will not win this tournament while Djokovic while with major competition running alongside him coupled with the excess mental baggage remains very very iffy.

Keys vs Krejcikova Keys and Krejcikova were both fortunate to walk through injured opponents in the last round. As they say, a win is a win and it matters not how that win was achieved. Since there is no obvious head to head to follow, I have been trying to retrace looking back for clues that might lead me in the right direction. My thinking here is that whoever has the consistent weight of shot-making playing first strike tennis wins. I have a good feeling that this will end in straight sets once I can find the right horse to be on. I believe that Madison's problem over the years has been shot selection and consistency with her accuracy. I think she has gotten this far for a reason and will go on to prove it. She should have the heavier and more penetrating shots which should carry her through in the end. Verdict: Madison keys to win

I certainly agree with that. And of course you're right to say things change over time. Perhaps that's a good place to finish, otherwise I imagine this could go on and on.

I think you are overreacting with the Zverev racket smashing episode. Racket smashing is a very acceptable part of the game depicting a release of bad energy which fans love. It is just another game assessory like groaning, a loud short scream at the end of a brutally fought out point or even smashing a ball out of the stadium in annoyance. Players react differently. Then again, we have never even seen Nadal express any outward emotion of any sort. He just gets on with the game in his own way.

Halep vs Cornet One of the matches tonight that has caught my interest. I really think the price on Halep to win is ridiculously high. I must admit that Halep wins matches that she is supposed to win and as much as I admire her current 8match run streak, I was not entirely impressed by the opposition. Cornet on the other hand has started the year well with a number of impressive victories. The match against Osaka at Melbourne, and Muguruza and Zidansek in the second and third round respectively is my gauge to know what to expect from her in the next hour or so. Importantly enough her head to head with Halep stands at 3-1 with a game superiority evident in the sets played. I am expecting Cornet to be her usual defiant grinding self and give Halep a good run for her money. I will suggest for parlays Cornet +7.5 @4/11 (Alternative handicaps Paddy Power) Verdict: Over 17.5 games @ Paddy Power 4/7

Halep vs Cornet One of the matches tonight that has caught my interest. I really think the price on Halep to win is ridiculously high. I must admit that Halep wins matches that she is supposed to win and as much as I admire her current 8match run streak, I was not entirely impressed by the opposition. Cornet on the other hand has started the year well with a number of impressive victories. The match against Osaka at Melbourne, and Muguruza and Zidansek in the second and third round respectively is my gauge to know what to expect from her in the next hour or so. Importantly enough her head to head with Halep stands at 3-1 with a game superiority evident in the sets played. I am expecting Cornet to be her usual defiant grinding self and give Halep a good run for her money. I will suggest for parlays Cornet +7.5 @4/11 (Alternative handicaps Paddy Power) Verdict: Over 17.5 games @ Paddy Power 4/7

Azarenka vs Krejcikova This is another match that I would be looking forward to watching to see how their contrasting styles work out. Azarenka has has a very smooth run up to this point and I will be expecting that run to continue. Head to Head is 1-0 Azarenka which in actual fact was a comprehensive victory. I feel Azarenka's game is similar in a way to Ostapenko's where both take the ball early on the rise. This will certainly cause Krejcikova a great deal of difficulty adapting to the Azarenka game and unlike the Ostapenko game, there will be no way back here. Azarenka to win.

Azarenka vs Krejcikova This is another match that I would be looking forward to watching to see how their contrasting styles work out. Azarenka has has a very smooth run up to this point and I will be expecting that run to continue. Head to Head is 1-0 Azarenka which in actual fact was a comprehensive victory. I feel Azarenka's game is similar in a way to Ostapenko's where both take the ball early on the rise. This will certainly cause Krejcikova a great deal of difficulty adapting to the Azarenka game and unlike the Ostapenko game, there will be no way back here. Azarenka to win.

Thank you @CzechPunter & @liquidglass . Much appreciated.
Watching Cilic now and wow he looks like a power to be reckoned with. 

I do not think that match requires thought of any kind. I think the h2h is 1-1 with Kasatkina winning on grass at a time when Swiatek was a complete novice on it. Here Swaitek"s game is well suited to the hard courts with that quick take-back that is bound to pit Kasatkina in deep trouble. I think Kasatkina has two realistic hopes here; Bob Hope and no hope! Borrowing NFL vocabulary, it should be a blitz.

I do not think that match requires thought of any kind. I think the h2h is 1-1 with Kasatkina winning on grass at a time when Swiatek was a complete novice on it. Here Swaitek"s game is well suited to the hard courts with that quick take-back that is bound to pit Kasatkina in deep trouble. I think Kasatkina has two realistic hopes here; Bob Hope and no hope! Borrowing NFL vocabulary, it should be a blitz.

Vondrousova vs Sabalenka At this stage of the tournament which I believe that most of us are now well into, I am not going to bore you with providing reasons why I think any one of these women will win, rather by way of reasonable probality I will want to focus on should be deemed a good bet by the betting option that I have chosen. These two women head to head stand at 2-2. Vondrousova won the first two but it is sabalenka who has won the last two (2018 & 2021 respectively). The last victory in 2021 was a runaway victory 6-1 6-2. The question that allof us must be asking ourselves now that Sabalenka's opposition is now a considerable upgrade from the last two is this; do we now expect Sabalenka to play better or worse considering her problems with the serve in the opening two rounds. I have always been sure of the answer to that question as I have already remarked on this forum. Emphatically yes. The question now is which way do I bet amidst the host of betting options. Firstly, I cannot bring my head round the fact that Vondrousova has been made favorite considering their current rankings of 41 and 2 respectively. In my seach for the ideal bet and expecting a close match I saw on bet 365 Sabalenka total games over 12.5@6/5 and under @4/7. The problem is that there is a chance that this could be a runaway victory for Sabalenka where the under could come in despite the win. That really would be cruel. However I found what I am most certain is the ideal bet for this match on Paddy power. Sabalenka over 11.5 total games at 4/7. This covers a Sabalenka victory of any sort. On the flip side I cannot see how Vondrousova will win this if possible without Sabalenka going over 11.5games. Even making provisions for a bad service day at the office Sabalenka over 11.5games still seems the perfect bet,

Vondrousova vs Sabalenka At this stage of the tournament which I believe that most of us are now well into, I am not going to bore you with providing reasons why I think any one of these women will win, rather by way of reasonable probality I will want to focus on should be deemed a good bet by the betting option that I have chosen. These two women head to head stand at 2-2. Vondrousova won the first two but it is sabalenka who has won the last two (2018 & 2021 respectively). The last victory in 2021 was a runaway victory 6-1 6-2. The question that allof us must be asking ourselves now that Sabalenka's opposition is now a considerable upgrade from the last two is this; do we now expect Sabalenka to play better or worse considering her problems with the serve in the opening two rounds. I have always been sure of the answer to that question as I have already remarked on this forum. Emphatically yes. The question now is which way do I bet amidst the host of betting options. Firstly, I cannot bring my head round the fact that Vondrousova has been made favorite considering their current rankings of 41 and 2 respectively. In my seach for the ideal bet and expecting a close match I saw on bet 365 Sabalenka total games over 12.5@6/5 and under @4/7. The problem is that there is a chance that this could be a runaway victory for Sabalenka where the under could come in despite the win. That really would be cruel. However I found what I am most certain is the ideal bet for this match on Paddy power. Sabalenka over 11.5 total games at 4/7. This covers a Sabalenka victory of any sort. On the flip side I cannot see how Vondrousova will win this if possible without Sabalenka going over 11.5games. Even making provisions for a bad service day at the office Sabalenka over 11.5games still seems the perfect bet,