four-leaf

Hey all check out Blu Baker in Bogota challenger tonight in qualies on clay, young britt with some talent for challengers.

We're at the stage of the tournament now where I want to start looking at backing other players in the outrights on the exchanges in order to minimise my liabilities - in the case of Djokovic - or recoup some losses - in the case of Swiatek. I'll do this by taking prices that I think are worth taking and the objective isn't necessarily to fully cover liabilities or losses as that sometimes requires chasing tactics, which as I've previously mentioned I don't use. 
As far as today goes I'm backing a boosted treble and an acca. The treble is Rybakina, Halep and Anisimova and whilst I'm not sure about Rybakina, I do think Halep and Anisimova will come through which makes the treble worth chancing in my eyes. The acca contains all of the ATP favourites - I'll be very surprised if any of them lose - as well as Halep and Anisimova and I'm also putting Djokovic into it as I think he'll beat Sinner tomorrow.
 
15pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 7.86
5pts Kyrgios to win ATP Wimbledon @ 10.80
1pt Sinner to win ATP Wimbledon @ 29.42
1pt De Minaur to win ATP Wimbledon @ 49.02
15pts Anisimova to win WTA Wimbledon @ 10.31
10pts Niemeier to win WTA Wimbledon @ 17.17
1pt Rybakina to win WTA Wimbledon @ 18.64
----------------------------------------------------------
10pts Rybakina x Halep x Anisimova @ 3.37 365
10pts De Minaur x Kyrgios x Fritz x Nadal x Djokovic x Anisimova x Halep @ 4.41 365

I don't understand what's wrong with betting on the challenger tour, why is everybody lighting up when it's a grand slam only on this forum? Look at Hamad Medjedovic today and learn about future stars.

Hamad Medjedovic to beat (-1.5 sets) Zhizhen Zhang at 2.65 with Unibet
Hamads time has finally come to get a breakthrough on the challenger tour. He will progress to the ATP tour and he will beat this chinese today in straight sets.

The reason for Iga's poor performance was the lack of technique / skills in playing without topspin on the grass; this should be trained and assimilated, among others, in pre-Wimbledon tournaments. 
She had neither the time nor the energie for this after such an excellent but exhausting season. So the question is: why did she go to this tournament? 
Iga's power is based on fast-played, incredibly intense topspin, so all opponents often have big problems with positioning for the optimal pickup of the ball. Her second serve without topspin is unfortunately, useless.

I have an early Christmas gift for everybody
Is tomorrow 02/07/July
Tsitsipas to beat Kyrgios @ 2.14 offered by Meridianbet.
I watched carefully both of them. Tsitsipas is now different player on grass. Perhaps the contribution of the new coach in his team? Probably. He moves better, and he is hitting the ball very accurately. In addition he managed to hold his upsides and downs better than even just a couple of months ago. He stopped doing silly mistakes. He continue of course to make mistakes, but much less than before. 
Kyrgios is a fool. I wonder how he escaped with the victory over the inexperienced Briton Jubb. Actually Jubb lost it, and not the other way.
I am highly confident on this one.
10/10 for me. 
I know that some others will pick Kyrgios, because they probably didn't notice what a fool is on his head and on his game the Aussie, especially lately. Kyrgios won few weeks ago against Tsitsipas on grass, but now the circumstances are totally different.
But i like to take the risk. Besides, betting means risk. Everything has price, even the 1.01 may lose. Happened to witness this in horses final stages when the leading the race was the huge favorite from the beginning, and the last horse that stage which was pricing 1000/1 finally won the race. After the race- back in year 2011- i learned that the rider of the winner horse was a legend rider! 
I am sure that the fans of British horse races have in mind this story. I was just spending my time on betfair following the lay method. With this lay method on horse races, you may win small amounts of money but with risk to pay a lot if one of your layers finally wins the race, but to me never happened during that era because i stopped in year 2012. This is the best method of betting, providing that you have money, you have time because you have to stay in races for many hours as you understand! And is absolutely no need to know anything about horses and riders. It is pure luck, but luck rarely disappoint you. You just have to select a horse and lay. Many times i selected top favorites, and none won! Now i stopped because i don;t have time and motivation to do such a job. I have my income, i am satisfied, no need to spend 4-5 hours every day to secure 50-100 euros profit. Good luck to Tsitsipas!

A slight loss on the day as the acca went down, whilst Sinner won which contributed to the treble coming in and cancelled out the single on Isner. Djokovic again flew through his match and that'll probably see his outright price contract still further.
Sometimes you're left scratching your head with the way results pan out sometimes. You'd have done well to find anyone who thought Mertens would beat Kerber in straight sets after the way she played in the last round where she should have lost, but that's what happened. She went from not being able to buy an easy hold against Udvardy to holding her first four serves for the loss of only three points against Kerber. When you get such a stark contrast in performances it's tempting to think why bother trying to predict what's going to happen 

He was flattered against Murray. Don't get me wrong, he played really well but if Murray had been anywhere near his best I don't think he would have won. The biggest indictment against Murray was being broken twice - bearing in mind how limited Isner is on return that's completely unacceptable and I suspect Murray knows it as well. You look at Sinner today and he didn't face a single break point. On top of that, he was much better returning Isner's second serve than Murray was and that made a big difference.

I've added to positions on Djokovic and Swiatek in the outrights on the exchanges and as far as today goes, I'm backing a single, a treble and an acca made up of favourites that I think will win.
After Nadal put in a below par performance against Berankis and after a similar performance in the previous round, it's looking less and less likely to me that he'll win this tournament and it seems the market agrees as the price on Djokovic continues to drop. I still think he's worth backing even at a shorter price than those I've already taken, as I just don't see who beats him from the players still left in the draw.
Swiatek's price has drifted and that's no surprise after some shaky moments against Pattinama Kerkhove, but I can't ignore the fact she's now a round further along, she remains on a long winning streak and is the best player in the world by some distance. It could be that a tricky match like the one she just had on her least favourite surface helps her more than another easy win would have done, as it'll bring into sharp focus the things she needs to do better and the strategies that work - and more importantly that don't work - on grass.
The single I'm taking is Isner, who played the best match I've ever seen him play on grass against Murray. I don't think Murray played well despite what seems to be a consensus to the contrary, but even so for Isner to beat someone like him with so much experience of playing on grass doesn't bode well for Sinner's chances, particularly as he looks uncomfortable on the surface.
In case Isner doesn't win, I'm backing Sinner in a boosted treble along with Djokovic and Alcaraz. Djokovic shouldn't have many problems beating Kecmanovic and Alcaraz should get the better of Otte via his return game and if it does work out that way and Sinner also wins then I'll have covered my bet on Isner.
 
65pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.57 
55pts Swiatek to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.86
15pts Isner to beat Sinner @ 2.50 365
10pts Sinner x Djokovic x Alcaraz @ 2.50 365
10pts Van Rijthoven x Paul x Djokovic x Ostapenko x Sakkari x Jabeur x Kerber x Alcaraz @ 6.41

Benjamin Hassan to beat (+3.5 games) Nino Serdarusic at 1.89 with Unibet (in-play)
Nino isn't exactly the guy I would wanna trust when it comes to handicaps in challengers. Especially not when Hassan is on the other side of the net.

Tan delivered, in the end, sorry @four-leaf!
For tomorrow, I like Molcan/Fritz - Over 37.5 games at 1.95 with Pinnacle. Fritz has had two pretty weak opponents so far and Molcan certainly looks like a step up on those. The Slovak has been improving big time this season, good attitude as well, and Fritz is likely to give up in a set if he gets a break down at some point. Three tight sets can also cover this, which is a nice plus.

Anyone who's backing Tan this day will likely be dissapointed

Agree about Andreescu. 365 have a boosted treble with her, Badosa and Gauff in it that's odds against so I'm having some of that.
10pts Badosa x Andreescu x Gauff @ 2.2

As always, good luck to everyone getting involved!
Mai Hontama to beat Clara Tauson at 2.60 with Unibet
Tauson didn't play any preparatory tournaments on grass, while Hontama had a good run in the qualifiers and is generally a tricky player to play against. A good friend of mine from the Czech Republic also saw her play in the qualifiers and said she was moving really well etc., so I suppose she's worth a shot at odds against. On ranking alone, Tauson would be an even bigger fav, so chances are that the bookies are sensing an upset here as well.
Jan-Lennard Struff (+2.5 sets) to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 1.64 with Unibet
Alcaraz is a big unknown on grass, and his performances in the exhibition events suggest that he might not even be fully fit. Struff has been pretty poor lately, too, but he tends to be decent against big names and his serve can do the job here on its own, too. I think he'll raise his game for the occasion, and I think that he'll be able to steal a set off Alcaraza way more often than not.
Martina Trevisan to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto at 1.62 with Unibet
Both players feel much better on clay, of course, but Trevisan had a great run in the French Open and she also actually played on grass, unlike Cocciaretto. Considering that I also rate her as the better player of the two overall, it all combines for a bet for me here.
Yanina Wickmayer to beat Lin Zhu 1.67 with Unibet
Zhu has been absolutely tragic recently, while Wickmayer seems energized after her comeback.
Dominik Koepfer to beat Daniel Elahi Galan at 1.68 with Pinnacle
Not confident at all about Galan's chances of grass, he didn't bother to prepare much by the looks of things. Koepfer isn't too impressive, either, but at least he's more proficient on hard courts etc.
Lorenzo Sonego to beat Denis Kudla at 1.86 with Pinnacle
Over the longer format, I much prefer Sonego's composure, even despite his recent loss against Kudla.

It was the aussie Rod Laver who were the last and only one on the mens side who achieved the feat of winning all 4 grand slams in a season way back and he did it twice.

It was the aussie Rod Laver who were the last and only one on the mens side who achieved the feat of winning all 4 grand slams in a season way back and he did it twice.

Real Salt Lake vs Columbus Crew
The next preview in our long line of previews for this weekend's MLS action is the 3am BST kick-off on Sunday morning between Real Salt Lake and Columbus Crew at the Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy. The home team are heading into this game with their eye on displacing Los Angeles FC at the top of the Supporters' Shield table but they face a potential banana skin in an away side that have taken points from their last two regular season games.
Real Salt Lake are flying this season with the team currently in 2nd place in the Western Conference and also 2nd in the Supporters' Shield overall table. Head coach Pablo Mastroeni has done a sterling job with this side and they have now won 4 of their last 5 league games. The 2-0 win at home to San Jose Earthquakes in their last league outing was a show of the squad's character to bounce back after the disappointment of the 2-1 loss away to Vancouver Whitecaps in the game previous to that win. The Claret and Cobalt return to the comforts of their home ground for this game where they have remained unbeaten this season and have won the last 4 league games played at this venue with clean sheets in three of those games. As the old saying goes, strikers win you games but the defence wins you a league title.
Columbus Crew still find themselves struggling this season with the team sat in 11th position in the Eastern Conference and only 3 points off the bottom of the table. The good news is that the team is just 3 points off the play-off pace and they do boast up to 2 games in hand on the teams above them. If head coach Caleb Porter can settle the team's form down slightly then maybe they can push on up the table and into the top 7. The team has become synonymous with low-scoring games this season with 8 of the last 11 league games delivering less than a total of 2.5 goals scored. The team has now gone back-to-back games unbeaten but it is still just 1 win from the last 5 league games. They have only lost 1 of the last 4 away games though. What an enigma this team is right now!
The bad news for Columbus Crew fans is that their team has failed to win on each of their last four visits to Real Salt Lake. This should be a game that Real Salt Lake will be looking to take the bull by the horns and grab the win. Crew are a tricky team on the road recently but they have still only won 2 of their last 7 away league games. I'm going to have the back the home team.
Real Salt Lake to Win @ 1.88 with SBK
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.84 with SBK

Austin FC vs FC Dallas
It's a Texas derby in the 2am BST kick-off on Sunday morning in the MLS when Austin FC face FC Dallas at the Q2 Stadium in Austin. Both of these sides are fighting at the top end of the Western Conference and a victory here would help them pile on the pressure on Los Angeles FC at the top of the table. Will either team show the courage to go for the win or will the two sides cancel each other out with a draw to consolidate their places within the play-offs?
Austin FC might only be in their second season in the MLS but they can be proud of their current 3rd place in the Western Conference and just 3 points off the pace of Supporters' Shield leaders Los Angeles FC. Head coach Josh Wolff will have been delighted with the dogged 1-0 win his team picked up on the road against CF Montreal last time out. The team comes into this game at home full of confidence having only lost 1 of their 7 home games this season. One thing this Austin team knows how to do is find the opposition net. They have scored 29 goals in 15 league games and have only failed to score in 1 of their last 13 matches. As the team enters the halfway stage of the campaign you have to feel that they're not far off performing at the level required to be considered one of the favourites to take the MLS Cup this season. Perhaps the defence could just do with a little tightening.
FC Dallas will be keen to extend their winning streak against Austin FC and take home the bragging rights in this Copa Tejas clash. Nico Estevez's men are in 4th position in the Western Conference and breathing right down the neck of their opponents for this game. The Burn have lost 3 of their last 4 league games unfortunately and that's hit their hopes of finishing top of the Supporters' Shield table. I'm not sure what's happened to the Dallas defence but they can't keep a clean sheet for love nor money right now with their shutout drought extending to five league games now. This is a Dallas team that is one of the best performers on the road though. They have only lost 1 of their last 6 away league games so you just can't rule them out on their travels. They also have a constant goal threat in the joint-top scorer in the MLS in Jesus Ferreira with his 9 goals so far.
If you follow my previews on Premier League or Championship games then you'll know that derby matches always give me the nerves. I often just back the draw because they're so hard to call. This is no different. Yes, FC Dallas have the worse form heading into this game but they have a 100% win record in this fixture and their away form this season is solid. If anything I'd edge towards them sneaking a win here but I'll back the draw.
Draw @ 3.70 with SBK
Anytime Scorer: Jesus Ferreira @ 3.55 with Unibet

Tsitsipas is the most overrated player. To lose from Ivashka is something not shocking. I mean i don't trust Tsitsipas any more against any player. And especially on grass, he looks weak player. Dozens would beat him on grass. Zero progress in the last three years on his game. Actually is moving backwards than forwards. And i hate his father. If he doesn't fire his idiot father for ever, don't expect anything from Tsitsipas. 
I am out of any betting involvement this week. 

Danielle Lao to beat Nastasja Mariana Schunk at 2.10 with BetVictor
Not quite sure why Lao is even the underdog here, she's played more on grass recently and with some good results, while Schunk really has only the two qualifying matches under her belt if you don't count the awful performance against Sanders. And, she's beaten clay court players in those two wins. She's talented, true, but Lao has experience on her side and is probably also better on grass overall. Everything above evens is value here imo.

Constant Lestienne to beat Marius Copil at 2.15 with Unibet
I think Constant seems to have himself a good opportunity here. Marius is well past his prime.

Katerina Siniakova (+1.5 sets) to beat Simona Halep at 2.41 with Pinnacle
Something just isn't clicking with Halep, she's good in patches and bad in patches, and she had a very disappointing Sunday when she lost against Haddad Maia. If she's still in a bit of a slump, Siniakova can certainly steal a set, as she did against Andreescu last time out. Given the odds, I much prefer the set handicap over the games handicap, as Siniakova can produce a meltdown in the decider.

Constant Lestienne to beat Marius Copil at 2.15 with Unibet
I think Constant seems to have himself a good opportunity here. Marius is well past his prime.

Constant Lestienne to beat Marius Copil at 2.15 with Unibet
I think Constant seems to have himself a good opportunity here. Marius is well past his prime.

Constant Lestienne to beat Marius Copil at 2.15 with Unibet
I think Constant seems to have himself a good opportunity here. Marius is well past his prime.