richard-westwood

Aberrant prices only just coming online 
Magical memory  99.17
Mobsta    98.99 
 
Well.....it's the beginning of the flat season so all the results are hit and miss because of fitness issues ..but on paper magical memory is vastly clear in this race ....nice to see him installed as favourite and I'm surprised actually to see paddyp offering 100/30 as I'd originally priced him up as 9/4 based on his rating superiority so I'm going to hold on a bit and see if anyone offers better else I'll take that .....mobsta is non push over but onnpaper he's rating about 10lbs behind magical memory so even the 9/1 doesnt look value against favourites price ........might use this as double platform with Saturday's Scottish champion as there's some nice ratings for that race just coming off comp too ....
Magical memory 10 pts win best price (will update shortly)
*** 7/2 with bet365 taken 

Very interesting concept. As for DD, just sounds like he had a bad start. Good luck with this system.

Aberrant prices only just coming online 
Magical memory  99.17
Mobsta    98.99 
 
Well.....it's the beginning of the flat season so all the results are hit and miss because of fitness issues ..but on paper magical memory is vastly clear in this race ....nice to see him installed as favourite and I'm surprised actually to see paddyp offering 100/30 as I'd originally priced him up as 9/4 based on his rating superiority so I'm going to hold on a bit and see if anyone offers better else I'll take that .....mobsta is non push over but onnpaper he's rating about 10lbs behind magical memory so even the 9/1 doesnt look value against favourites price ........might use this as double platform with Saturday's Scottish champion as there's some nice ratings for that race just coming off comp too ....
Magical memory 10 pts win best price (will update shortly)
*** 7/2 with bet365 taken 

Even though that didn't look brill I actually learned a lot from that ...,on my hcap system accession was rated 2nd ......still it spotted the value and only those 4 qualified so onto the next race !!

In further relation to restricted accounts it appears its a huge problem and a survey has been issued. With regards to giving it to the bha finally ...so if youve been burned take part 
http://ukhbf.org/account-restrictionclosure-survey/

phew...........
I might look to this strategy a bit more often where you have two 'obvious' ones that are both odds against
 

I just noticed only a couple of bookies were pricing him up for this .....so weights might go up ?? Dont think it will effect ratings much on top two maybe wven make them stronger now ...just depends who sneaks in at bottom ...ill keep an eye on it as bottom weights can do well in lincoln .....this is always a hard race and theres a lit of well backed ante post coups present but may as well have a play ...only 22 runners ...gulp ....

Top 22 runners ......rated 
Express himself    99.16
Storm rock     99.14
Buckstay     99.09
 
Well my initial fancy didn't get in ....thankfully I didn't back him ....express himself has kind of slippedunder the radar here with focus on the ante post fancies .....the form of his last race looks solid ....he totally missed the break and ordinarily that would have been it but he got back into the race ...weaved through and got there before the line with front two 3 and half lengths clear of field ......has been penalised 8 lbs but deservedly so and if he can improve a little then could be very dangerous ...similarly storm rocks last run was a bit lacklustre but possibly didn't appreciate the all weather and his previous run against your fired is more his level of form and that has a solid look to it too ......at the moment there are patches of 20/1 about each but I'll wait as late as poss to place the bet ......got a 100 pt carry over from last week ....I'll recoup the 40 I lost Monday and with the rest try two 30 pt wins top two for shot at the jackpot again .......
 

My ratings for this race 
Black spot on   98.86
Angus  98.84
Just cause   98.79 
I think the top two look really good value ...Angus is 11/1 best now and I think just cause could be dangerous too at 20/1 although he may be a bit novice for this so ew top two looks the best bet ...good luck 
3pts ew Angus 11/1 sj   3pts ew black spot on 33/1 bet365

3.00 Cork - Shanghai Beauty @ 7/1 Betfair
Very interesting opener at Cork with 2014 Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint winner Bobby's Kitten lining up for Weld in a Listed race. Can't see any betting angles though with questions about the ground for him and who knows how much ability Gordon Lord Byron retains. The favourites look solid in the 2.25 so my only bet on the card is Shanghai Beauty. Backed this one last week at the Curragh and was a bit disappointing after being so well supported in the build up. She traveled well enough though and maybe found the 6f at the Curragh a bit stiff as her best form is over 5f and at an easy 6f at Cork. She's been dropped a further 2lbs and will love the ground so I'll give her another chance on the flat 5f course at Cork.
3.30 Fairyhouse - Aengus e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 & Black Spot On e/w @ 33/1 Bet365
Aengus had back problems at the end of last season and although Meade said they sorted it his poor form continued into this year. He was good the last day though in a competitive looking race so maybe he's finally over the problems and can progress especially now back up in trip. Have to say I'm surprised Black Spot On has been dropped to 119 after a string of solid efforts over hurdles which culminated in an 8L defeat by Dedigout in a Grade 2 at the Fairyhouse festival last year. He hasn't been seen over hurdles since and has flopped over fences but that's not a big surprise as a flat bred and after his run on this card last year I'm sure this has been the target for a while.

It's good Fri got the day off work so I'll have a bash at the championships ....passed a load through comp and just backing top rated in doubles 
140 volunteer point  9/2
240 moon rise landing and Anglophone (joint top) 9/4 and 5/1
315 mindyrownbusiness 15/8
345 grendisar 11/10
445 haalick  15/8
14x 2pt doubles for a bit of fun 
 

Dubai world cup 
California chrome   99.56 (11)
Special fighter   99.52(5)
Frosted   99.51(9)
Mshawish 99.49(2)
All the vibe is around California chrome who is favourite around 9/4 but closer inspection suggests you want to drawn low in the world cup with at least one low draw horse making the frame or winning for the past 3 years at big prices too .....that said there seems to be a huge amount of ew value in special fighter and mshawish both 14/1 and drawn 2 and 5 ...Special fighter has looked a horse going places this season and given his profile it would be no shock to see him win this in fact he has the beating of many of these runners ....mshawish has the services of Frankie Detroit who loves the big stage so you know he will fighting to win this .....statistically one of the pair has an outstanding chance of at least making the frame and who knows .....
Special fighter 5 pts ew 14/1 wh 
Mshawish 5 pts ew 14/1 wh 
 

Only thing id say is going stick is reported as 5.5 good ....am i a plank or is that not soft ???...id be careful with going report t
tbh ...only like impulsive american in the last race ...ran a cracker on soft ground last time so of its soft he might be a good bet 

Yeah..same for me ..i always try and work out the best percentage of a return to stake ....so if ive narrowed a 24 horse race to 6 horses id want to back 3 unless the prices were all big then it might even be feasible backing six 1 pt wins if they were all 20/1+......i dont care what people think ...as some frown and only back one horse but if you get the winner and the coffers fill then thats the name of the game however you did it !!

Well he recently finished 2nd over 28f so trip isnt an issue and comp has obviuosly rated that form as very strong in relation to this race ...average winner is 8 yr old though ...hes only 5 ....it would be like a 7 yr old winning the grand national ....but computer has him about 4-5 lengths clear at mo ...hes got to get in first so ill watch and see ...cant see his price falling much cos his form isnt that obvious 

Trip must be an issue. Surely 5 year olds don't want 3m 5f?

Yeah ..have to admit i love getting a big price but ive been burned a few times in recent weeks and had enough now ....ill wait til night before or nrnb ....and yes mullins horses have become unbackable now ....he and other trainers had numerous horses entered for 3-4 races ....what can you do with that ??....makes life very difficult from a punting perspective unless as was stated above you use it to your  advantage and try and speculate where he wont run and youll prob get a better price on another horse....but chelt fest will always be a minefield ...its fab to watch but no matter how much reparation you have or form lines you read ...everyone  is there to win so your left scratching your head half the time ....just a funny  ol game 

Thats a nice result winner and a third so about 100 pts returned to carry over to next week ....shot at the biggy !!!

Nice one Richard, take all the luck when its going mate, we get enough bad luck

Firebird flyer.  99.34
red devil lads 99.28
cogry.   99.25
cogry looks a decent ew bet here but im not sure hes good enough to win a race of this calibre so value pushes me to look elsewhere ...firebird flyer oozes class so no worries there ...might be a touch high in weights but his class will be a big weapon here ...red devil lads has a nice weight and some good form if he can get round ...thats a big if ...but is more than capable of winning thisif getting around which he does sometimes ..lol
Firebird flyer 5 ptsew 14/1 bet365
red devil lads 5 pts ew 25/1 bet365
if non runner cogry ew 14/1

I'm actually sick that Vautour didn't line up in the Gold Cup.

Mall Dini did it nicely. 

Liminis connections are of the opinion he won't be beaten ....but I think tea in transvaal might be nonpushover ....ran a cracker against devilment here in fast time then supposedly improved last time ...only negative is longnlayiff but he has run well aftervlay off in past ...at 22/1 he just looks value bet
Tea in transvaal 5 pts ew 22/1 bet365

Diamond king 98.88
blood cotil. 98.82
politilogue. 98.80
devilment 98.77
concentrating on top two at mo but cant back blood cotil as hes more likely to go for a chase but if coming here would be very interesting at a big price that leaves gordon elliots diamond king clear rated at mo ...i know he thinks a lot of this horse and some big runs expected from his horses this year so the 10/1 is very appealing 
diamond king. 5 pts ew 10/1 willh 

2 losing bets, 4 horses Dutched, on day 1.
Day 2:
2:50  Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle: Arbre De Vie + Ubak
4:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle: Fixe Le Kap + Ardamir
Fingers crossed, lucky horseshoe vigorously rubbed...ready to nibble finger nails...