Saturday Racing - (Inc. Midland National)

[BillyHills]

Midland National Preview

Verdict:

A decent renewal here and the added prize money has certainly gave the top end of the handicap a bit more substance. The Pipe yard are always worth looking at in this event and I like Alternatif although he is a bit inexperienced. Spookydooky is my main pick from the Jonjo O’Neill yard. He has bypassed the Festival to come here and has some very solid form in the book. He will spot on after his last run and must go close. An alternative would be Golden Chieftain if he comes here and I like the look of Cogry from the Twiston-Davies outfit who looks well handicapped.

Selections:

Spookydooky 14/1 Ladbrokes

Cogry 14/1 Bet365

(If abs Golden Chieftain 25/1 Stan James)

 

[richard-westwood]

Firebird flyer.  99.34

red devil lads 99.28

cogry.   99.25

cogry looks a decent ew bet here but im not sure hes good enough to win a race of this calibre so value pushes me to look elsewhere ...firebird flyer oozes class so no worries there ...might be a touch high in weights but his class will be a big weapon here ...red devil lads has a nice weight and some good form if he can get round ...thats a big if ...but is more than capable of winning thisif getting around which he does sometimes ..lol

Firebird flyer 5 ptsew 14/1 bet365

red devil lads 5 pts ew 25/1 bet365

if non runner cogry ew 14/1

[BillyHills]

350 Kempton Preview

Verdict:

A very interesting handicap and I think its best to concentrate on those at the front of the market. The unexposed types like Cernunnos, Orbasa and Atirelarigo all come here in decent form and there is very little to choose between the trio. I do like the profile of Orbasa and just prefer him ahead of Cernunnos. Paul Nicholls has a knack of landing these decent Saturday handicaps and looks to have another one lined up here.

Ballybolley can be given a chance now he has his ground and could squeeze into the frame while Festive Affair is the best hope of those in double figures.

Selection: Click to back Orbasa @ 7/2

[BillyHills]

Tote Scoop 6 Preview

Leg 1: 3.00 Uttoxeter

The first leg is a 3m Novice Handicap Chase and the Pipe yard who do so well at this meeting are represented by Abracadabra Sivola who won for the yard on his first appearance since switching from Nick Williams. He will find this a lot tougher but has to be respected. Tim Easterby’s Run Ructions Run has been keeping good company since she went chasing and has been beaten by L’Ami Serge, Blaklion and Ma Filleule in her last three races. This is her easiest race for a while and must go on the shortlist. Last time out winners Delganey Demon and Henri Parry Morgan are dangers in a wide open race

Selection: Click to Back Run Ructions Run @ 9/1

 

Leg 2: 3.15 Kempton

This is a consolation race for those hurdlers who failed to get into a race at the Cheltenham Festival. It’s over the intermediate trip of 2m5f and 20 runners have been entered. Its interesting to note that Willie Mullins is still in the hunt for more prize money after a superb week and he saddles Townshend and will be ridden by Ruby Walsh. He was a beaten favourite last time out at Fairyhouse and now wears a hood for the first time. Nicky Henderson has three runners and his main hope is Might Bite who carries top weight is unexposed over hurdles so his mark of 138 may be lenient. Miles to Milan and A Hare Breath are improving types and worth a second look.

Selection: Click to Back Might Bite @ 9/1

 

Leg 3: 3.35 Uttoxeter

Another impossible puzzle to solve, 17 runners and the bottom weight is good starting point. Almost Gemini has won three times since November and gone up 26lbs in the handicap. The 7yo won by 6 lengths last month and now steps into Class 3 company for the first time. Rolling Dylan from the Philip Hobbs yard has been runner-up the last twice and should be better suited on todays ground and could be well handicap on 124. Of the others Champagne At Tara has been threatening a return to form and is the each way selection.

Selection: Click to Back Rolling Dylan @ 9/2

Leg 4: 3.50 Kempton

The consolation race for the Chasers, and not so many entries here, just the 13 but still a competitive contest. I like Cernunnos who is owned by JP McManus and trained by Tom George. He was well backed last time out but met an inform Ericht and went down by 5 lengths. He still went up 3lbs so it doesn’t get any easier for him. Orbasa finished alone at Fontwell last time on his only run in Britain and has been given a mark of 132 to follow up. He could be well in rates a danger to all. Of the rest Ballybolley deserves a win for his consistency and front runner De Faoithesdream should go a good pace and make it a true test.

Selection: Click To Back Orbasa @ 7/2

 

Leg 5: 4.10 Uttoxeter

The Midland Grand National and a wide open renewal. Horses with low weights have done well in the past but an injection of more prize money has attracted some decent types this season and those at the head of the handicap are worth looking at. I like the Jonjo O’Neill runner Spookydooky. He ran well at Haydock two starts back and last month sharpened up with a run at Ascot. Cogry has been running in all of the big staying handicaps and deserves to reach the frame at least while the likes of Shotgun Paddy and Firebird Flyer are respected along with the Irish raider Sizing Coal who comes from last years winning stable.

Selection: Click Back Spookydooky @ 14/1

 

Leg 6: 5.00 Kempton

The final leg and the only race not on C4. A 14-runner handicap chase over 3m and the top weight Georgie Lad is rated 115. Last time out winner Vendredi Trois makes his comeback after a break. He won at Taunton in November and has been raised 7lbs and has avoided all the bad winter ground so he will be nice and fresh. Muckle Roe ran well last time and is worth considering as is Cloudy Bob ran in a good race here last time and finished third behind two decent animals.

Selection: Click to Back Vendredi Trois @

[richard-westwood]

Well I've decided to specialise in the big race Saturday doubles....any winners one Saturday will be carried over onto the next available big open race flat or jump ....either all on one horse or split between two ...that way it gives me a chance at a big win throughout the season but like scoop6 rollover lol ....and allows me to focus the full power of the computer and my time on just a couple of races leaving no stone unturned ......no more antepost ...illmplace bets Fri night so I know who's running and conditions especially on rollovers but today's 385 pt win shows it can be very lucrative if you get it right and a lot of fun to boot .....so git the two bets above in national ....and this race 

Kemp 350 

Fairy rath   98.76

Ballybolley   98.74

Atirelego   98.70

Dance floor king 98,70

Dance floor king is well treated on old form but is out of sorts at mo so I'm happy to scrub atirelego is a dark horse ...bit of a novice he doesn't have the class of top two but has been installed second fab and ridden by r Johnson so warrants respect but for potential stake boosters for a carry over top two are 8/1 and 10/1 so get the call to arms 

Fairy rath 5 pts ew 10/1 lads

Balleybolly 5 pts ew 8/1 lads 

[beaker1]

Betfred Midlands Grand National – 4.10 Uttoxeter, Saturday 19th March

When Synchronised landed this race under 11st 5lb in 2010 the ground was almost unraceable, so much so that only three of the eighteen runners actually finished. That may well form part of the reason for his success under such a big weight as usually the Midlands Grand National favours those from towards the bottom of the handicap. In fact nine of the last ten winners have all carried less than eleven stone which suggests all but four of this year’s field are up against it. Rigadin De Beauchene, Courtown Oscar and Count Guido Dero all sit below the required cut-off point whilst Summery Justice also sneaks in with the 5lb claim of Charlie Deutsch.
Synchronised’s was also the highest rated Midlands National winner since Young Kenny in 1999. Both horses were rated in excess of 140 but they appear to be the exception rather than the norm. The most successful band appears to be from 135 or lower, a trait shared by seven of the last ten winners. That also suggests that the top nine as they appear in the racecard have a very tough task on their hands.

As well as a low weight, proven stamina has also proved crucial in this slog over four miles, one and a half furlongs. With this in mind, none of the last ten winners did not have a win to their name over three miles or further prior to winning this contest. This is a major concern for supporters of Mad Brian and Cultram Abbey who have yet to win over the required distance.

Goulanes, who won this race two years ago wasn’t your typical winner in that he was pulled up on his most recent start. Seven of the last ten winners came here on the back of finishing in the first three on their most recent visit to the racecourse. This goes in favour of just over half of the field on this occasion including last time out winners including Milansbar, No Planning and Fourovakind.

One thing that most winners of this race have in common is their ability to jump well, in fact only two of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated in their chasing careers prior to victory here. There are a few in this renewal with patchy jumping records but the six to focus on are Katkeau, Milansbar, Spookydooky, Subtle Grey, Sizing Coal and Courtown Oscar.

It really would be splitting hairs trying to separate the past ten winners by age. Therefore, if we group the runners together, those aged seven, eight and nine are the most successful having taken nine of the last ten renewals. This does not bode well for supporters of the older generation such as Summery Justice, Rigadin De Beauchene, Fourovakind, Golden Chieftain and Mad Brian who will all be attempting to win at the age of ten or above.

The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and despite Goulanes and GVA Ireland landing the spoils for favourite backers, on the whole it has been something of a graveyard for market leaders. The current favourites are Jim Dreaper’s Sizing Coal and Neil King’s Milansbar but both will need to defy this trend to get his head in front.

Shortlist

COURTOWN OSCAR – 7/7

Subtle Grey – 6/7

Count Guido Deiro – 6/7
 
Conclusion

COURTOWN OSCAR tops the shortlist with all things considered as the seven-year-old matches each of the trends that we have mentioned. Philip Kirby’s gelding has been progressing well this winter and has now won three of his last five starts over fences. He has managed to sneak in at the bottom of the weights and with stamina appearing to be one of his biggest strengths, he could run well at what are likely to be sizeable odds.

He is joined on the shortlist by Subtle Grey who finished in front of Courtown Oscar at Carlisle last month and also looks a horse on the up. Donald McCain’s seven-year-old already looks likely to be a better chaser than a hurdler and the only trend he misses is the one relating to weight as he carries 11st 2lb here. He has never run over this far before but he has looked solid stayer in the past so is worth a go at this extreme trip.

The shortlist is completed by Count Guido Deiro who only got into the field following the withdrawal of Peter Bowen’s Berea Boru. His only negative amongst the trends is his jumping as he has twice unseated his rider in just eight starts over fences. He was last seen winning impressively over hurdles at Newbury in February and on the back of that effort he looks potentially well-handicapped over the bigger obstacles. He is also at a big price at 20/1 and if he can get round then he will have more than half a chance.

Advice

COURTOWN OSCAR – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Coral)

[richard-westwood]

On 16 March 2016 at 08:28:18, richard-westwood said:

Firebird flyer.  99.34

red devil lads 99.28

cogry.   99.25

cogry looks a decent ew bet here but im not sure hes good enough to win a race of this calibre so value pushes me to look elsewhere ...firebird flyer oozes class so no worries there ...might be a touch high in weights but his class will be a big weapon here ...red devil lads has a nice weight and some good form if he can get round ...thats a big if ...but is more than capable of winning thisif getting around which he does sometimes ..lol

Firebird flyer 5 ptsew 14/1 bet365

red devil lads 5 pts ew 25/1 bet365

if non runner cogry ew 14/1

 

On 18 March 2016 at 18:05:36, richard-westwood said:

Well I've decided to specialise in the big race Saturday doubles....any winners one Saturday will be carried over onto the next available big open race flat or jump ....either all on one horse or split between two ...that way it gives me a chance at a big win throughout the season but like scoop6 rollover lol ....and allows me to focus the full power of the computer and my time on just a couple of races leaving no stone unturned ......no more antepost ...illmplace bets Fri night so I know who's running and conditions especially on rollovers but today's 385 pt win shows it can be very lucrative if you get it right and a lot of fun to boot .....so git the two bets above in national ....and this race 

Kemp 350 

Fairy rath   98.76

Ballybolley   98.74

Atirelego   98.70

Dance floor king 98,70

Dance floor king is well treated on old form but is out of sorts at mo so I'm happy to scrub atirelego is a dark horse ...bit of a novice he doesn't have the class of top two but has been installed second fab and ridden by r Johnson so warrants respect but for potential stake boosters for a carry over top two are 8/1 and 10/1 so get the call to arms 

Fairy rath 5 pts ew 10/1 lads

Balleybolly 5 pts ew 8/1 lads 

Thats a nice result winner and a third so about 100 pts returned to carry over to next week ....shot at the biggy !!!

[BillyHills]

Nice one Richard, take all the luck when its going mate, we get enough bad luck

[richard-westwood]

I'm carrying over the 100pts to the Lincoln hcap ....it's not far off now and I have ways of narrowing the field down then I can rate what's left ...also I already have a horse flagged in my notebook ..,,classic collection ....lightly raced for surroor i was very impressed with his final run last run and he looked the perfect type for the Lincoln ....nice to see bookies have as a 16/1 shot even at this stage for such a lightly raced type so they obviously have noted him too ...will be interest in to see how he figures near the time ....but 50 pts at 16/1 ...800pts ...would be a nice start to flat season ...lol

Edited March 21, 2016 by richard-westwood