Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase - Friday 18th

[BillyHills]

Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

[BillyHills]

Preview

Verdict:

This is probably the best Gold Cup since Denman, Kauto Star and Imperial Commander met each other in 2010. We have at least six top class horses meeting each other and all of them at the top of their game at the moment. I’m ruling out Djakadam due to his injury and poor preparation and Smad Place on class alone. I think Vautour is a doubtful stayer in the very best races; he may get away with it over 3m1f at Aintree but not here. Cue Card is very tempting but again I’m not sure about 3m2f here at Cheltenham. That leaves Don Cossack and Don Poli the two Gigginstown runners. Sometimes you cant do right for doing wrong but I have a strong feeling that the race will be run to suit Don Poli who looks the most thorough stayer in the line up.

Selections:

Don Poli 6/1 Bet365

Don Cossack 9/2 Betway

[PeterX]

What a race this proves to be, one of the best in recent times. It should be a great spectacle and a case can be made for many of the runners making it a fascinating betting heat. But from a betting point of view I'm taking a different approach and almost by process of elimination, I have found myself a very strong selection.

 

So by focusing on the main 6 principles that head the market, Djakadam who was a good second in the race last year and would surely have to have a excellent chance now a year older at the age of 7. He ran well first time out this season over 2m4f in the John Durkan at Punchestown, beating Valseur Lido & Gilgamboa easily.  He was then installed at 7/2 favourite for this race after the King George chase had been run. With this horse seemingly having the perfect profile and 'ticking every box'. But the prep race went far from plan when the horse and Walsh took a bad looking fall for no apparent reason, sent off 4/7 fav at Cheltenham in the Cotswold Chase. It has completely shaken up the market and the prep couldn't have gone much worse. Initially after the fall of Djakadam being 7/2 favourite for the Gold Cup I was expecting a possible overreaction in the betting to make him more of a prospect. Maybe 8/1 or 9/1 but instead he's still strong at 5/1 and I couldn't be backing that at the price. Taking in to account the stats for a horse that has previously failed to win the Gold Cup & trying to comeback and do it after a last time out fall would be a huge negative.

 

Don Cossack is in the warm order at the head of the market and was imperious when slamming a good field in the Melling Chase at Aintree last April. And then again just after when beating Djakadam, Road to Riches & Cue Card impressively in the Punchestown Gold Cup. He seems an awkward horse to me though, I backed him in the King George on Boxing Day. He never seemed to be comfortable in the race and then took a fall at the second last when looking lively. Maybe the track didn't suit him and play to his strengths. For me that was disappointing.  He has won his prep race since then and connections aren't sure whether to use headgear on him or not. But besides from that it's the Cheltenham record that puts me off having been beat in two festivals already, including falling in an RSA. He stayed on strongly in the last years Ryanair to nab third, albeit he was already beaten. On that basis and the fact his jumping can has looked off at Cheltenham before, I can pass on him at the 4/1 mark 

 

Vautour has the perfect record around Cheltenham and is a 'spring horse'. He's obviously better at Cheltenham and going left handed and I do think he'll improve from his narrow King George defeat. In my opinion the horse is almost too quick and flashy for the test of the Gold Cup. I think Vautour is an excellent horse but his distance looks to be between 2m - 3m and he would win the Ryanair Chase and have an outstanding chance in the Champion Chase. But 3 and 1/4 miles and a big hill, I can't see him staying. 

 

Cue Card has come back a new horse this year winning his 3 chase starts along the way. Taking the Betfair Chase & the King George, the form is in the book. He also acts around Cheltenham being a multiple winner here. He comes here with a similar profile to Silviniaco Conti last year who was sent off favourite for the Gold Cup and didn't seem to stay. Now Cue Card has never raced over this extended distance, not saying that's a bad thing, but where stamina really comes to the fore and I just can't see it being a positive to him. I wouldn't take away anything from him if he were to win but from a betting point of view I can't have him.

 

Smad Place must have a decent chance in this unique test having powered away with the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Cotswold Chase from the front. But he's never won a grade 1 and has seemingly come up short every time, included this seasons King George VI (4th) and that would be a negative. 

 

That at leaves me with the Willie Mullins trained Don Poli. He's won 5 out of his 6 chase starts, including 3 Grade1 chase wins, he's a good jumper albeit not the flashy type. He basically goes on any ground. He's also got the 100% Cheltenham record similar to stablemate Vautour, having won the Martin Pipe and the RSA Chase. I was impressed by how he won the RSA Chase last year, with his jumping bringing him right into it and then powering up the hill, ears pricked and ran right into the line when others were tiring. Now that race hasn't worked out well in terms of form, but imagine there was an extra furlong that day, he would've absolutely bolted up. He wasn't stopping at the line that day that's for sure. His only defeat came at Punchestown last year where I don't believe he showed his true running, he needs time in-between races and that might have come too soon. He narrowly won the Lexus at Leopardstown at Christmas and on the form that wouldn't be good enough here but he looked to me like he'd only just got going when getting up to win. I think the horse has some engine and having proved his love for Cheltenham and the hill it is a big positive. He's never raced beyond the 3miles before, neither have most of his rivals, but once they turn in for home and it's new territory for the horses. I expect he will be the one to relish the stamina test, and provided he's with them at the turn in at the bottom of the hill, I don't see him being beaten. He will run up the hill while the other horses tire and battle all the way to the line.

 

Of the others at bigger prices, last years third Road To Riches would have an each way chance if the ground came up good. And Valseur Lido could improve for the trip and should be running here but since the owners also have both Dons, they'll likely break them up into the Ryanair.

 

Verdict: Don Poli 6/1 with StanJames rates as a strong 5 star selection. 

[richard-westwood]

Its that time where i have to put my money where my mouth is and choose a gold cup horse 

no matter what form youve seen you want a young up and coming horse in this so ive scrapped everythin over 9 that includes cue card ... You want lightly raced so that scraps don cossack for me  and pref ran well in king george which is a fab trial ....putting all that together coupled with an rpr of 180 lto the form is absolutely screaming ....vautour ....absolutely no doubt in my mind hes the horse i want to be on ....lightly raced ... 6runs is perfect ...2nd in trial ...i just think he couldnt be more perfectly designed for a gold cup and 11/2 with boyles is the bet for me 

vautour 10pts ew 11/2 boyles 

[bej62]

good luck getting anything more than a fiver on with boyles !!

[bej62]

PeterX, enjoyed that review and I'm going back to look at your selection in greater detail. plenty has been said about Que card and Vatour regarding the trip but I'm discounting these 2 excellent horses on that basis. last years runner up would have been my pick but he was reportedly needing the run in his prep race when he fell so didn't get it. I backed Road to riches last year and think his 3rd is as good as he is but I wouldn't put anybody off backing him for a place given the points I've already made, I think this years renewal is a weak one given my perceived weaknesses of the top quality animals at the head of the betting. this potentially leaves the door open for a horse that has never won a grade 1 to run this lot ragged over course and trip and grab a place at least. I've punted Smad place each way in an effort to regain the money I'd placed on him ante post to win this years national. I'm expecting a lung busting Coneygree style assault on the race that a mark of 168+ might win pennies or pounds. here's hoping

[arsenalfh]

I've generally had a good idea of where I stand with this race for a very long time now and have a pretty strong opinion on it. We'll start with the favourite Don Cossack who probably would have won the King George if he stayed up based on the sectional data but fences are there to be jumped. He's quite a lazy horse that switches off almost too well and his jumping is dodgy at best when they go a right gallop from the off as we saw in the Ryanair last year and also the King George. Another worry is his lack of tactical speed which means his jockey may not be able to get him into the right positions to make a challenge up the hill. I really think they should put headgear on this horse to sharpen him up as I believe he is possibly the best horse in the race but he does have some serious question marks over his head. Cooper has been getting a lot of stick for his riding of this horse but I really don't see Russell bringing more improvement out of this horse as he also has a soft pair of hands and I think this horse needs an aggressive ride which keeps him on his on his toes as we saw McCoy deliver at Aintree last year. Richard Johnson would be the ideal partner I would think but that is unfortunately not going to happen.

Vautour is the second favourite and I reckon he'll stay. He put a mile between himself and Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido who would stay 2m 5f well up the hill in the JLT and his connections have always believed he stays the Gold Cup trip. Mullins has always said he is incredibly hard to get fit so it's no wonder he only shows his best in spring with the quicker ground also a big help. Combined with the fact he loves Cheltenham and going left handed there's a lot in his favour to reverse the form with Cue Card especially when he only has a head to find.

Cue Card looks better than ever this season after being revitalised by a wind op. He always had the pedigree of a real stayer but his keen going nature and breathing problems halted his progress over staying trips. Now that his wind has been sorted and he settles in his races while Paddy Brennan also seems to have had a positive impact you have to say he is a big player for the Gold Cup after a fine King George victory which is the key piece of form.

Don Poli is one of the worst priced horses of the whole festival in my opinion. You go right through his form right from Christmas 2014 when he just outstayed Apache Stronghold over a trip to far for Meade's runner to the RSA where he beat poor horses and most concerning of all a narrow victory over First Lieutenant and Foxrock in the Lexus and just wonder how is he good enough to win? The view that he only does enough is one fans of Don Poli often reach to but the way he was all out to beat two horses miles of the Gold Cup grade in the Lexus didn't scream of a horse with a lot left in the tank. I also have taken a dim view of his form receiving weight from Many Clouds as I really think they only have one race in mind for the Grand National winner and Mullins usually has his string pretty staright first time out. He has 15lbs on RPRs tofind with the King George horse and although I can see him improving a bit for a return to Cheltenham on better ground but he has way too much to find to win a Gold Cup for me.

Smad Place has improved this season but he was well beaten in the King George and although a return to front running tactics will suit it won't be enough to reverse the King George form. It is important to remember he will set a proper gallop which will put Don Cossack's jumping to the test.

I rate last years Gold Cup form but Djakadam and Road to Riches have had far from ideal preps for this. I don't mind backing horses off falls but Djakadam needed stitching to his chest that surely disrupted his work in preparation for the Gold Cup. Road to Riches is more appealing at the prices and I actually have him backed each-way at 16/1 from before the Irish Gold Cup which is still available. On the face of it it was a poor effort last time out but he had a setback over Christmas and was running off a break while the ride he was given was also extremely poor. The ground was completely bottomless and he actually did much the best out of the front runners who went a crazy gallop so that run can be forgiven. Carlingford Lough looked like he was going to be pulled up a few furlongs out yet won by 12L which just goes to show how quick they went off in front. Although his best form is on soft ground connections always believed he was better on quicker ground and he comes here a much fresher horse this time so I wouldn't put you off.

If they threw some headgear on Don Cossack or booked someone like Richard Johnson for the ride he would become interesting but I think the King George 1-2 is the pair to focus on with a narrow preference for Vautour. I also think Road to Riches should be a couple of points shorter and I wouldn't put you off backing him. Now it's time to wait and see how the market shapes up later in the week when bookies might push out the market leaders.

[arsenalfh]

On 3/14/2016, 1:10:07, arsenalfh said:

I've generally had a good idea of where I stand with this race for a very long time now and have a pretty strong opinion on it. We'll start with the favourite Don Cossack who probably would have won the King George if he stayed up based on the sectional data but fences are there to be jumped. He's quite a lazy horse that switches off almost too well and his jumping is dodgy at best when they go a right gallop from the off as we saw in the Ryanair last year and also the King George. Another worry is his lack of tactical speed which means his jockey may not be able to get him into the right positions to make a challenge up the hill. I really think they should put headgear on this horse to sharpen him up as I believe he is possibly the best horse in the race but he does have some serious question marks over his head. Cooper has been getting a lot of stick for his riding of this horse but I really don't see Russell bringing more improvement out of this horse as he also has a soft pair of hands and I think this horse needs an aggressive ride which keeps him on his on his toes as we saw McCoy deliver at Aintree last year. Richard Johnson would be the ideal partner I would think but that is unfortunately not going to happen.

Vautour is the second favourite and I reckon he'll stay. He put a mile between himself and Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido who would stay 2m 5f well up the hill in the JLT and his connections have always believed he stays the Gold Cup trip. Mullins has always said he is incredibly hard to get fit so it's no wonder he only shows his best in spring with the quicker ground also a big help. Combined with the fact he loves Cheltenham and going left handed there's a lot in his favour to reverse the form with Cue Card especially when he only has a head to find.

Cue Card looks better than ever this season after being revitalised by a wind op. He always had the pedigree of a real stayer but his keen going nature and breathing problems halted his progress over staying trips. Now that his wind has been sorted and he settles in his races while Paddy Brennan also seems to have had a positive impact you have to say he is a big player for the Gold Cup after a fine King George victory which is the key piece of form.

Don Poli is one of the worst priced horses of the whole festival in my opinion. You go right through his form right from Christmas 2014 when he just outstayed Apache Stronghold over a trip to far for Meade's runner to the RSA where he beat poor horses and most concerning of all a narrow victory over First Lieutenant and Foxrock in the Lexus and just wonder how is he good enough to win? The view that he only does enough is one fans of Don Poli often reach to but the way he was all out to beat two horses miles of the Gold Cup grade in the Lexus didn't scream of a horse with a lot left in the tank. I also have taken a dim view of his form receiving weight from Many Clouds as I really think they only have one race in mind for the Grand National winner and Mullins usually has his string pretty staright first time out. He has 15lbs on RPRs tofind with the King George horse and although I can see him improving a bit for a return to Cheltenham on better ground but he has way too much to find to win a Gold Cup for me.

Smad Place has improved this season but he was well beaten in the King George and although a return to front running tactics will suit it won't be enough to reverse the King George form. It is important to remember he will set a proper gallop which will put Don Cossack's jumping to the test.

I rate last years Gold Cup form but Djakadam and Road to Riches have had far from ideal preps for this. I don't mind backing horses off falls but Djakadam needed stitching to his chest that surely disrupted his work in preparation for the Gold Cup. Road to Riches is more appealing at the prices and I actually have him backed each-way at 16/1 from before the Irish Gold Cup which is still available. On the face of it it was a poor effort last time out but he had a setback over Christmas and was running off a break while the ride he was given was also extremely poor. The ground was completely bottomless and he actually did much the best out of the front runners who went a crazy gallop so that run can be forgiven. Carlingford Lough looked like he was going to be pulled up a few furlongs out yet won by 12L which just goes to show how quick they went off in front. Although his best form is on soft ground connections always believed he was better on quicker ground and he comes here a much fresher horse this time so I wouldn't put you off.

If they threw some headgear on Don Cossack or booked someone like Richard Johnson for the ride he would become interesting but I think the King George 1-2 is the pair to focus on with a narrow preference for Vautour. I also think Road to Riches should be a couple of points shorter and I wouldn't put you off backing him. Now it's time to wait and see how the market shapes up later in the week when bookies might push out the market leaders.

Both Vautour and Road to Riches go to the Ryanair. Shortlist down to Don Cossack and my most likely pick Cue Card.

[richard-westwood]

Mullins horses are unbackable ante post aWhat a cop out ....he's never won and bypasses with his best chance ever ...very very disappointing .......immleavingbit alone now and not to mention he's been very well  backed in recent days ...,thanks for letting punters know ,...or maybe they were laying all along ....

Edited March 15, 2016 by richard-westwood

[arsenalfh]

I'm actually sick that Vautour didn't line up in the Gold Cup.

[jamespatrickashton]

Toss up between Cue Card and Don Poli

Don Poli has done well for me over the years, on this occassion hawever it has to be Cue Card.

That said I do have a saver on Don Poli.

[richard-westwood]

23 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

I'm actually sick that Vautour didn't line up in the Gold Cup.

me too ...I'm sure he would have won especially after how the further he went the better he was .......for me this now between djackadam and don poli .........I'm not sure the latter is quite good enough yet to win a gold cup but djackadam showed last year he has the class and was probably just a bit babyish last year .....one year later fitter and tougher I think he can be a worthy substitute for vautour and romp home 

Djackadam 10 pts ew 9/2 bet365

[arsenalfh]

Devastated with that result as I just love Cue Card. I wasn't completely happy with him going around but he was tanking down the hill when the race was hotting up.

[Jimmy2shoes]

5 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

Devastated with that result as I just love Cue Card. I wasn't completely happy with him going around but he was tanking down the hill when the race was hotting up.

Agree 100% mate, never a nice ending seeing any animal take a fall, i thought it very similar to when Conti fell at the very same fence in 2013 

Racing can have some Adrenalin filled highs, then some very cruel lows

We'll never know the answer had he stood up, just a real shame, at least horse and jockey are still in rude health.

Very strange game at times, cruel.  

[arsenalfh]

54 minutes ago, Jimmy2shoes said:

Agree 100% mate, never a nice ending seeing any animal take a fall, i thought it very similar to when Conti fell at the very same fence in 2013 

Racing can have some Adrenalin filled highs, then some very cruel lows

We'll never know the answer had he stood up, just a real shame, at least horse and jockey are still in rude health.

Very strange game at times, cruel.  

It's a shame we haven't got a real battle between Cue Card and Don Cossack with each of them falling. Next season Cue Card will be 11 and who knows if he can reach this level again. The Gold Cup form from last year took a bit of a hit this week with Road To Riches beaten comfortably by Vautour and Don Cossack always in control against Djakadam so I doubt Coneygree will be able to regain his crown especially when good ground is likely. Last year was a good year but this year was a great year for staying chasers it seems.

The King George was red hot form and you can expect those horses to be involved again next year but it's likely going to be an even better race with Thistlecrack who could be a superstar.

Would love to see Cue Card meet Don Cossack at Punchestown.