richard-westwood Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 (edited) Aberrant prices only just coming online Magical memory 99.17 Mobsta 98.99 Well.....it's the beginning of the flat season so all the results are hit and miss because of fitness issues ..but on paper magical memory is vastly clear in this race ....nice to see him installed as favourite and I'm surprised actually to see paddyp offering 100/30 as I'd originally priced him up as 9/4 based on his rating superiority so I'm going to hold on a bit and see if anyone offers better else I'll take that .....mobsta is non push over but onnpaper he's rating about 10lbs behind magical memory so even the 9/1 doesnt look value against favourites price ........might use this as double platform with Saturday's Scottish champion as there's some nice ratings for that race just coming off comp too .... Magical memory 10 pts win best price (will update shortly) *** 7/2 with bet365 taken Edited April 13, 2016 by richard-westwood Soloshchenko and Blazing Bailey 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Racingahoy Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 My take on tomorrow Maarek EW Linguistic Long House Hall https://racingahoy.wordpress.com/2016/04/13/strong-foundations/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Three for Thursday Previews 3.10 Ripon: Mirsaale @ 5/4 Skybet 1.50 Cheltenham: Katie Too EW @ 6/1 Bet365 4.10 Cheltenham: Sir Ivan EW @ 12/1 William Hill Blazing Bailey 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 355 Newmarket Preview Verdict: A really good renewal here and while I do like the Cammidge form of Mobsta I think he may have a job on his hands to cope with the likes of Magical Memory and my selection Mattmu. The Tim Easterby trained 4yo is most consistent in this type of class and sets the standard here. I think Magical Memory may prefer better ground and that just might make the difference on this occasion, as Mattmu appears to go on anything. Selection: Mattmu @ 11/2 BetVictor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 Working on something big at the mo ......but gonna take a couple weeks to finish formulas ...even got my mathematician friend helping out as the formulas are a bit complex for me but in meantime I've rated the 505 newm for a bit of light entertainment .....even though nothing's running to form at mo ..,,,you gotta keep trying ...sooner or later the chips will fall Flash fire 98.98 Dinkum diamond 98.96 Mumbo paradise 98.93 Difficult as they come race ...Mambo paradise is an improving type but not sure he's quite good enough yet but he represents jonhston so needs respect ...the two above him look good value though at 8 and 16/1 .....both have decent form at distance and should run well Flash fire 2 pts ew 9/1 will h Dinkum diamond 2pts ew 16/1bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 (edited) Just doing a prelim test on New value rating .....it's based purely on whether a horses price accurately reflects its real chance and if not by how much the price is out .....today's rating for 505 above is coming out as follows so far Dinkum diamond value diff 11 outstanding 20/1 Mujjassam value diff 5 good 10/1 Accession value diff 4 good 25/1 Mumbo paradise value diff 4 good 25/1 This purely rate show much value there is in each horses price......I can then couple it with my own ratings later to see which of the value horsesarecurrently in form and running close to their best giving me only horses that are in sparkling form and running at a price far exceeding their true chance .....the essence of pure value ......very exciting concept ......as you can see above the rating is clearly showing dinky diamond as the clear value bet in the race .....doesn't mean he will win ..,atthe moment its just saying his price far exceeds his true chance .....the ultimate concept of value ..... Edited April 14, 2016 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 (edited) On 13/04/2016, 09:38:10, richard-westwood said: Aberrant prices only just coming online Magical memory 99.17 Mobsta 98.99 Well.....it's the beginning of the flat season so all the results are hit and miss because of fitness issues ..but on paper magical memory is vastly clear in this race ....nice to see him installed as favourite and I'm surprised actually to see paddyp offering 100/30 as I'd originally priced him up as 9/4 based on his rating superiority so I'm going to hold on a bit and see if anyone offers better else I'll take that .....mobsta is non push over but onnpaper he's rating about 10lbs behind magical memory so even the 9/1 doesnt look value against favourites price ........might use this as double platform with Saturday's Scottish champion as there's some nice ratings for that race just coming off comp too .... Magical memory 10 pts win best price (will update shortly) *** 7/2 with bet365 taken That's better....45 pts returned ...I'll top up coffers with that seeing as form is up and down at mo until they settle ...most are needing run ....even today I dontvthink he ran anywhere near what he's capable of ....will come on a lot next time Edited April 14, 2016 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 3 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Just doing a prelim test on New value rating .....it's based purely on whether a horses price accurately reflects its real chance and if not by how much the price is out .....today's rating for 505 above is coming out as follows so far Dinkum diamond value diff 11 outstanding 20/1 Mujjassam value diff 5 good 10/1 Accession value diff 4 good 25/1 Mumbo paradise value diff 4 good 25/1 This purely rate show much value there is in each horses price......I can then couple it with my own ratings later to see which of the value horsesarecurrently in form and running close to their best giving me only horses that are in sparkling form and running at a price far exceeding their true chance .....the essence of pure value ......very exciting concept ......as you can see above the rating is clearly showing dinky diamond as the clear value bet in the race .....doesn't mean he will win ..,atthe moment its just saying his price far exceeds his true chance .....the ultimate concept of value ..... Even though that didn't look brill I actually learned a lot from that ...,on my hcap system accession was rated 2nd ......still it spotted the value and only those 4 qualified so onto the next race !! DanV89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soloshchenko Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 8 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Just doing a prelim test on New value rating .....it's based purely on whether a horses price accurately reflects its real chance and if not by how much the price is out .....today's rating for 505 above is coming out as follows so far Dinkum diamond value diff 11 outstanding 20/1 Mujjassam value diff 5 good 10/1 Accession value diff 4 good 25/1 Mumbo paradise value diff 4 good 25/1 This purely rate show much value there is in each horses price......I can then couple it with my own ratings later to see which of the value horsesarecurrently in form and running close to their best giving me only horses that are in sparkling form and running at a price far exceeding their true chance .....the essence of pure value ......very exciting concept ......as you can see above the rating is clearly showing dinky diamond as the clear value bet in the race .....doesn't mean he will win ..,atthe moment its just saying his price far exceeds his true chance .....the ultimate concept of value ..... Very interesting concept. As for DD, just sounds like he had a bad start. Good luck with this system. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 14, 2016 Author Share Posted April 14, 2016 9 minutes ago, Soloshchenko said: Very interesting concept. As for DD, just sounds like he had a bad start. Good luck with this system. Yeah I think Dd blew it in the stalls and was just given a blow out so who knows ....onwards and upwards.....be nice if they'd at least get out the stalls ...please .? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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