Saturday Racing 26th Mar (Dubai World Cup)

[richard-westwood]

Dubai world cup 

California chrome   99.56 (11)

Special fighter   99.52(5)

Frosted   99.51(9)

Mshawish 99.49(2)

All the vibe is around California chrome who is favourite around 9/4 but closer inspection suggests you want to drawn low in the world cup with at least one low draw horse making the frame or winning for the past 3 years at big prices too .....that said there seems to be a huge amount of ew value in special fighter and mshawish both 14/1 and drawn 2 and 5 ...Special fighter has looked a horse going places this season and given his profile it would be no shock to see him win this in fact he has the beating of many of these runners ....mshawish has the services of Frankie Detroit who loves the big stage so you know he will fighting to win this .....statistically one of the pair has an outstanding chance of at least making the frame and who knows .....

Special fighter 5 pts ew 14/1 wh 

Mshawish 5 pts ew 14/1 wh 

 

[BillyHills]

Dubai World Cup

Verdict:

A two horse race on paper and I fully expect the American duo of California Chrome and Frosted to fight out the finish. California Chrome has had is problems but seems to have come back better than ever. I’m just a little worried about his defeat here last year and on this occasion the value bet has to be Frosted. He was ultra impressive last time out here and his preparation has been spot on. William Buick is a decent judge and he reckons this horse will show even more here and if he does he will be very hard to beat. Of those at bigger prices I suppose the Dettori horse Mshawish is the sensible option at around 14/1 for each way backers.

Selection:  Frosted @ 5/2 Paddy Power

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[beaker1]

2.10 Meydan – Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored By Meydan Hotels & Hospitality (Group 1) 

Won last year by the returning Sole Power, the Al Quoz Sprint is always run at good clip, which can suit those who can settle either just behind the leaders or those that like swooping fast and late. Clearly Edward Lynam’s stable star benefitted from the scorching early pace last season and came with a strong late run to take glory from Peniaphobia, who was much closer to the pace.

It could well be a similar race this year, with only Not Listenin’tome, Sole Power, Muthmir and Sir Maximilian horses who seem to enjoy a hold-up style of riding. There is a huge amount of pace and prominent racers drawn low, so expect the Australian challenger, ridden by Ryan Moore, and Sole Power with Chris Hayes up, to get a great tow along into the closing stages of the race. From there, it will be all about whether they get the breaks or not. SOLE POWER’s reappearance run this year was light-years better than this time last year, you would have to think he’ll have come on plenty for that and so goes into this race with a huge chance . Even though he’s ‘getting on’ for a sprinter now, he looks overpriced at 13/2 (Skybet).

Not Listenin’tome is a fascinating contender for trainer John Moore, especially with the world’s number one jockey on board. All of the horse’s last three wins have come at this distance at Sha Tin and his patient style could work well here as he’s drawn alongside prominent racers Bel Canto, Peniaphobia, Ertijaal and Jungle Cat. He was just a length back from Peniaphobia in the Group 1 Hong Kong Sprint in December and although he was 2 ½ lengths further back from that rival in the Group 1 Centenary Sprint Cup, he was badly hampered in the final furlong. All in all, if you’re looking for an interesting each-way bet who’ll love the fast pace, he’s a decent shout at 8/1 (bet365).

I’ve already mentioned him quite a lot, but the Joao Moreira-ridden Peniaphobia is a very high-class sprinter who is always there or thereabouts in the biggest contests. He was the victim of the classic Sole Power late swoop last year. He’ll almost certainly race right at the front of proceedings and if he can get his own way in the battle for the lead, he’ll be very dangerous. But when he’s challenged up front, he doesn’t often win and that could again be the scenario here, even though he’s a very solid proposition in terms of running his race and doing himself justice.

The current favourite for the race is Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Ertijaal, who has taken to sprinting like a duck to water after spending most of his time at seven furlongs. He’s been mightily impressive in two good handicap races over C&D and even though it’s always a massive step-up to Group 1 level, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility to see him powering off from the front, not to be caught. However, he beat Fityaan by two lengths last time, and despite improving since, that horse is still 33/1 here, so at a price of around 3/1, Ertijaal seems quite short for what he’s achieved.

Goldream, as a Palace House, King’s Stand and Prix De L’Abbaye winner, is entitled to the greatest of respect and even though he ran a modest race on his Meydan debut a few weeks ago, he’ll have to come here with a good chance if he’s fit and ready to go. Robert Cowell is a master with sprinters and this horse is testament to his skills. If he’s come on for that last run (did look like he needed it) he’s way too big a price at 12/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral) and he’ll stalk the fast early pace to try and pounce later on. I can see him running well.

The likes of Jungle Cat, Muthmir and Sir Maximilian, while having good form and certainly holding chances, could find a couple too good here – Muthmir probably holds the best chance of those.

Advice

SOLE POWER – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (SkyBet, 888Sport, 32Red)

 
                                                                                           3.45 Meydan – Dubai Turf Sponsored By DP World (Group 1)

Tryster is the horse on everyone’s lips; two stunning performances in his last-to-first style in two runs in Dubai this year has got Charlie Appleby purring about his five-year-old’s chances in this Group 1. He certainly has a top-class turn of foot off a steady pace, and unless front-runners try to draw the sting out of him, he’ll be a huge threat. However, he’s only really contested at the very top table once, in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown last season, where he disappointed, finishing last of five. His Group 1 win last time out was in a very weak affair and I’m really not sure whether a race like this, certain to be run at a decent clip, will suit his style. He’s far too short for me at 2/1 or shorter anyway given he’s never gone up against the ‘big boys’ with any success.

Godolphin also has the exciting filly Very Special in the race, and I think this is a horse with a great chance at odds that seem too big (14/1 in places). The four-year-old is related to Chriselliam and Mengli Khan, so there’s real ability in her bloodline and she’s been improving at a rate of knots – whatever you might say about Ryan Moore’s ride on Euro Charline in the Group 2 that Very Special won last time out; it seemed that she was holding the runner up anyway. She is headstrong, and will certainly be up there for the lead throughout, but she’s getting better with age and she stays this nine furlong trip well. She’ll go well from the front under James Doyle and has decent claims with her 5lb fillies’ allowance.

Roger Varian looks set to have a monster season this year, and he could well kick things off with a bang here as his hugely exciting colt INTILAAQ has to have a huge chance in a race of this nature. Touted as a possible Derby horse last year, those plans had to be shelved as he found the Guineas too much on just his third start, but his two wins since; one over Consort at Newbury and the romp at Haydock when beating Master Carpenter by five lengths, have been wildly impressive and there are big hopes for him this year. He’ll love the strong pace that Very Special will help set, and there won’t be many staying on as strongly as him at the end – I expect him to sit handily under Paul Hanagan from a decent middle draw in eight, and kick on rounding the bend, challenging the leader and daring the likes of Tryster to come and catch him. I think he’s very good and 5/2 certainly isn’t a prohibitive price in a race that could pan out perfectly for him.

Ryan Moore is booked for the ride on Real Steel, the Japanese contender, trained by Yoshito Yahagi and the son of Deep Impact has run consistently well in high-class races in Japan for a year now. However, he hasn’t won since his debut, where he beat Duramente by half a length in a Group 3 and he always seems to just get beaten despite staying on well at the end of his races. He’s also been running at all sorts of different trips, from nine furlongs to almost two miles, so it’s possible that he’ll find everything happening too fast for him again here, before staying on well towards the end.

Forries Waltz is another who’s unbeaten this season and Mike De Kock’s number one in the race has improved for the extra distance, registering a decent figure in taking a Group 2 last time out. It goes without saying that he’ll have to improve further to be in with a chance of winning here though, but it’s not something that can be ruled out given he’s with South Africa’s master trainer.

Skimming through the rest fo the field, the likes of The Corsican, Basateen and Gabrial stand out – The first and last mentioned have a habit of performing well in big races at big prices and can go better than their price suggests while Basateen could be anything now after his switch to Doug Watson’s stable – he’ll have to improve again on his impressive seasonal reappearance but he’s always been highly regarded and with Pat Dobbs on board, he’s not one to rule out lightly at a big price.

Advice

INTILAAQ – 2pts win @ 5/2 (General)

                                                                                              4.20 Meydan – Dubai Sheema Classic Presented By Longines (Group 1) 

This seems a three-horse race, with big challenges from Britain, Japan and Ireland, all with good Graded form.

POSTPONED currently heads the market for Roger Varian and if he can reproduce the form of his win in the King George VI Stakes, he’ll be very tough to beat. He’s got good pace angles either side in Gailo Chop and Highland Reel, so even though he’s drawn only two from the outside, he’ll still get a decent tow into the race. His win on his first visit to Meydan, in the Group 2 City Of Gold where he outpaced and outclassed Dariyan to win by a very easy three lengths, was mightily impressive and it could be the case that he’s improved for the switch in stable and the return to quicker ground. Conditions will be perfect for him here and there should be no excuses.

The ‘hype horse’ from Japan, Duramente has been targeted at this since he won the Japanese Derby in May of last year and given this will only be the fifth run of his career, you can expect him still to be improving. The mile and a half trip seems to suit him well and as long as he doesn’t get himself too far back in the field, giving Postponed and co. a start, he should go well. This is, however, his first run outside of his native Japan and you’d have to worry whether he has the experience at this level to make sure he does himself justice, even though he’s clearly extremely talented and receives the 2lb weight allowance by virtue of being a four-year-old.

Aidan O’Brien throws a dart at this hugely lucrative prize with Highland Reel, who is likely to break smartly from stall 8 under Ryan Moore and make his way to the front of proceedings. In beating the proven high-class yardstick Flintshire at Sha Tin in the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase in December, the four-year-old recorded his best ever performance and seems to still be improving. If Moore can get him to the front and dictate the pace, he’s already shown he can mix it with the better performers – the 2lb four-year-old’s allowance can only help and he should be there or thereabouts.

The only other one that could possibly be able to mix it with these three could be the outsider of the whole field. The Blue Eye is something of an unknown quantity; last seen impressively bolting up in the Group 1 HH The Emir’s Trophy in Qatar, beating Irish St Leger second Agent Murphy into fourth by almost six lengths. Even though that clearly wasn’t a strong Group 1 in global terms, he could be flying under the radar with improvement to come. There’s certainly been worse 50/1 shots in these big races so keep an eye on Harry Bentley’s mount.

Advice

POSTPONED – 2pts win @ 13/8 (Paddy Power)

 
                                                                                                              5.00 Meydan – Dubai World Cup.

California Chrome was well-fancied to win this race twelve months ago and having seemingly got the perfect trip, he was no match for the winner Prince Bishop. They went a strong pace last year and he sat quite close to it and although he was running on again at the finish, his finishing burst seemed to be blunted by the overly strong pace. His trainer believes that he is in much better form this year although it is hard to gauge following two straight-forward successes this year. There is the potential for a strong pace once again this year with several of the main protagonists likely to race handily and this would cause slight concerns about taking a short price here. On official ratings he is the horse to beat but not by as much as the market would suggest and in an open race, I think it is worth looking elsewhere.

Kiaran McLaughlin’s Frosted is one who could be ridden with more restraint and no doubt connections will be hoping that William Buick can repeat the same tactics which saw Prince Bishop win last year. He has won two of his last three starts with the middle of those having seen him disappoint in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland in October. All appeared to be well with the four-year-old on his return to action here at Meydan in February and with that being his first run since October, you would have to expect him to benefit from the run. He looks to have a solid chance but the form of his latest run isn’t that great and I think he is short enough at around the 5/2 mark.

One horse who could play an important role in the outcome of the race is Special Fighter who made all when winning the Al Maktoum Challenge impressively earlier this month. He set steady early fractions before kicking off the bend and his rivals were no match for him as he stretched clear to win by four and a half lengths. He is unlikely to be able to dictate steady fractions this time and with that in mind could set the race up nicely for one of the closers. He was well beaten by Frosted in February although he raced off the pace that day and these new tactics could well see him outrun his sizeable odds.

Having considered all of this I am going to take a chance on KEEN ICE who showed how effective he was off a strong pace when winning the Travers Stakes in August, beating both Frosted and American Pharoah. He was disappointing last time behind Special Fighter but his rider Ryan Moore said that he didn’t enjoy racing closer to the pace and that the pace was not quick enough for the four-year-old. I think the bookmakers may well have over-reacted by pushing him so far out in the market and with a stronger pace to run at he can step forward significantly on that effort. He has been drawn in stall1 which should mean he doesn’t get trapped wide like he did last time and he has been fitted with blinkers in a bid to bring about further improvement from him. It would not be the first time that a big-priced horse has won the race and I think he is worth taking a chance on in what is a wide-open contest.

Advice

KEEN ICE – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

[BillyHills]

Tote Scoop6 Preview

Over a Million reasons to play this week

Tote Scoop6 – Saturday March 26^th

The ever-increasing Bonus Fund has reached a massive £1,128,263 this week and to have a chance of winning it you need to land the Tote Scoop6 on Saturday. We had no winners last time when everyone went out after just two legs although we did have 72 happy punters who scooped the Place Fund, which was worth a very nice £444.20.

This weekend’s action comes from Haydock over the sticks and one from Kempton on the AW.

 

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