DanV89

5.00 ascot 
Crenelle   8.5  11/1 
Fresh hope   8.3  7/1 
 Golden spice  8.0  28/1 
3x5pt wins ...6x1pt forecasts 

Inver Park does the business ....+82.00 

340 ascot 
Mashhoor   8.8 9/1 
Brilliant light   8.5  25/1 
Sir rumi       8.5 20/1 
3x5pt wins  6x 1pt forecasts 

Intriguing race indeed. Although I am fascinated to see how Strong Power gets on tomorrow, I struggle to see how he could be a max bet? The day he won that Class 2, two runs back, he was receiving 19lbs from Tone The Barone, tomorrow they run off level weights. Not a criticism of your opinion just interested. 

@MCLARKE the percentages you mention below:
Draw 1-3 9% SR 0.87 AE
Draw 4-9 11% SR 1.12 AE
Draw 10-14 7% SR 0.84 AE
What trip are these over?
You mention 7f races tomorrow, what is the favoured draw over this trip?
Apologies, think I have missed the early conversation as can't seem to locate it.

I've had a look at the other races on the card leading up to the Melbourne Cup if you are staying up like I am. These are the ones I will be backing to small stakes.
R1 - Mainly 2yo newcomers so skipping this one
R2 - Those of you who read my Australian jumping previews might remember a horse called Wil John who I was a huge fan of over after he really impressed me winning a maiden hurdle. He is a classy horse over hurdles, but has improved his flat form as well as he won a good race at Caulfield last month. This is tougher, but I think he can win again.
R3 - This is a race just for grey horses and I will cover Excelman, Naval Envoy and Address Melbourne.
R4 - Lord Vladivostok, Milton Park and a small e/w bet on the outsider Hang Man.
R5 - The front two against the field for me, Frankie Pinot and Blondeau.
R6 - Profiteer and Super Thief in the race before the big one.

There is one runner I am interested in at Ayr this evening at a big price, Classy Al goes for Jim Goldie in the 6.25 who obviously has a great record at the track. Classy Al is having only his 6th career run tonight and his 3rd go in a handicap. He ran over course and distance on 26th July in a Class 6 race, he had a poor, low draw that day and as a result in my opinion he was tenderly ridden by Mulrennan. Notwithstanding that, he stayed on from well back under hand and heels to finish 5th, beaten 4 lengths off a mark of 62. The winner of that race was Jordan Electrics who has won a Class 4 race since, and the horse that finished a place in front of Classy Al was Mr Trevor who won at Thirsk yesterday, so there looks to be a bit of substance to the form. He has a nice, high draw in 11 this evening and has been dropped a couple of lbs to 60. His previous runs suggest he is a hold up horse so he will probably need a bit of luck in running but this should be run at an honest enough pace and one of the confirmed front runners Thin Blue Line is drawn right next to him in 12. I think he is more than capable of going very close off this kind of mark given a clear, true run. He actually opened up at 28/1 initially and that was quickly shorted to a best price of 14/1 at one point but has drifted again this morning, 20/1 still available which looks more than fair.

There is one runner I am interested in at Ayr this evening at a big price, Classy Al goes for Jim Goldie in the 6.25 who obviously has a great record at the track. Classy Al is having only his 6th career run tonight and his 3rd go in a handicap. He ran over course and distance on 26th July in a Class 6 race, he had a poor, low draw that day and as a result in my opinion he was tenderly ridden by Mulrennan. Notwithstanding that, he stayed on from well back under hand and heels to finish 5th, beaten 4 lengths off a mark of 62. The winner of that race was Jordan Electrics who has won a Class 4 race since, and the horse that finished a place in front of Classy Al was Mr Trevor who won at Thirsk yesterday, so there looks to be a bit of substance to the form. He has a nice, high draw in 11 this evening and has been dropped a couple of lbs to 60. His previous runs suggest he is a hold up horse so he will probably need a bit of luck in running but this should be run at an honest enough pace and one of the confirmed front runners Thin Blue Line is drawn right next to him in 12. I think he is more than capable of going very close off this kind of mark given a clear, true run. He actually opened up at 28/1 initially and that was quickly shorted to a best price of 14/1 at one point but has drifted again this morning, 20/1 still available which looks more than fair.

There is one runner I am interested in at Ayr this evening at a big price, Classy Al goes for Jim Goldie in the 6.25 who obviously has a great record at the track. Classy Al is having only his 6th career run tonight and his 3rd go in a handicap. He ran over course and distance on 26th July in a Class 6 race, he had a poor, low draw that day and as a result in my opinion he was tenderly ridden by Mulrennan. Notwithstanding that, he stayed on from well back under hand and heels to finish 5th, beaten 4 lengths off a mark of 62. The winner of that race was Jordan Electrics who has won a Class 4 race since, and the horse that finished a place in front of Classy Al was Mr Trevor who won at Thirsk yesterday, so there looks to be a bit of substance to the form. He has a nice, high draw in 11 this evening and has been dropped a couple of lbs to 60. His previous runs suggest he is a hold up horse so he will probably need a bit of luck in running but this should be run at an honest enough pace and one of the confirmed front runners Thin Blue Line is drawn right next to him in 12. I think he is more than capable of going very close off this kind of mark given a clear, true run. He actually opened up at 28/1 initially and that was quickly shorted to a best price of 14/1 at one point but has drifted again this morning, 20/1 still available which looks more than fair.

There is one runner I am interested in at Ayr this evening at a big price, Classy Al goes for Jim Goldie in the 6.25 who obviously has a great record at the track. Classy Al is having only his 6th career run tonight and his 3rd go in a handicap. He ran over course and distance on 26th July in a Class 6 race, he had a poor, low draw that day and as a result in my opinion he was tenderly ridden by Mulrennan. Notwithstanding that, he stayed on from well back under hand and heels to finish 5th, beaten 4 lengths off a mark of 62. The winner of that race was Jordan Electrics who has won a Class 4 race since, and the horse that finished a place in front of Classy Al was Mr Trevor who won at Thirsk yesterday, so there looks to be a bit of substance to the form. He has a nice, high draw in 11 this evening and has been dropped a couple of lbs to 60. His previous runs suggest he is a hold up horse so he will probably need a bit of luck in running but this should be run at an honest enough pace and one of the confirmed front runners Thin Blue Line is drawn right next to him in 12. I think he is more than capable of going very close off this kind of mark given a clear, true run. He actually opened up at 28/1 initially and that was quickly shorted to a best price of 14/1 at one point but has drifted again this morning, 20/1 still available which looks more than fair.

There is one runner I am interested in at Ayr this evening at a big price, Classy Al goes for Jim Goldie in the 6.25 who obviously has a great record at the track. Classy Al is having only his 6th career run tonight and his 3rd go in a handicap. He ran over course and distance on 26th July in a Class 6 race, he had a poor, low draw that day and as a result in my opinion he was tenderly ridden by Mulrennan. Notwithstanding that, he stayed on from well back under hand and heels to finish 5th, beaten 4 lengths off a mark of 62. The winner of that race was Jordan Electrics who has won a Class 4 race since, and the horse that finished a place in front of Classy Al was Mr Trevor who won at Thirsk yesterday, so there looks to be a bit of substance to the form. He has a nice, high draw in 11 this evening and has been dropped a couple of lbs to 60. His previous runs suggest he is a hold up horse so he will probably need a bit of luck in running but this should be run at an honest enough pace and one of the confirmed front runners Thin Blue Line is drawn right next to him in 12. I think he is more than capable of going very close off this kind of mark given a clear, true run. He actually opened up at 28/1 initially and that was quickly shorted to a best price of 14/1 at one point but has drifted again this morning, 20/1 still available which looks more than fair.

Got you, cheers mate. Seems an extraordinary hike in the weights?!

Got you, cheers mate. Seems an extraordinary hike in the weights?!

@Darran thanks for the write up. You’ve mentioned that the horse was rated 68 and was then ‘dropped’ to 83?

@Darran thanks for the write up. You’ve mentioned that the horse was rated 68 and was then ‘dropped’ to 83?

@Darran thanks for the write up. You’ve mentioned that the horse was rated 68 and was then ‘dropped’ to 83?

Chapman is very much marmite but personally I like him as he brings an enthusiasm like no one else. I enjoy the ‘Get In’ shows with Weaver & Harvey. Think Ruby Walsh is great to listen to too, very insightful. Can’t stand Ed Chamberlain & quite honestly although I’m sure Persad is a nice guy I don’t think he’s knowledgable enough for the jobs he gets. 

Chapman is very much marmite but personally I like him as he brings an enthusiasm like no one else. I enjoy the ‘Get In’ shows with Weaver & Harvey. Think Ruby Walsh is great to listen to too, very insightful. Can’t stand Ed Chamberlain & quite honestly although I’m sure Persad is a nice guy I don’t think he’s knowledgable enough for the jobs he gets. 

WON @ 22-1

Agree re Buick mate. Don’t like how Frankie doesn’t seem to ride out a finish once he feels his chance of winning has gone. 

Is he losing it?
At Royal Ascot this week he’s had 20 rides so far, and ridden 1 winner - that being 11/10 favourite Love. Also worth bearing in mind that of those rides, 7 have been favourites!!

Ran better than final placing in a draw biased race...keep the faith

2nd!
Ryan Moore got roasted on social media for giving the horse too much to do..but he was giving the winner nearly a stone and would have won for sure but for hanging
Remains a nice prospect, could even be a St Leger horse

Is he losing it?
At Royal Ascot this week he’s had 20 rides so far, and ridden 1 winner - that being 11/10 favourite Love. Also worth bearing in mind that of those rides, 7 have been favourites!!

2.30 - Lope Y Fernandez
3.05 - Vintage Clarets
3.40 - Battaash
4.20 - Highland Avenue
5.00 - Postileo
5.35 - Juan Elcano
6.10 - Saldier